Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 12/15/17

9:07

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:07

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:07

Jeff Sullivan: Freddy Galvis edition

9:08

Wade Davis: Surely I’m going to get more than a 2 year deal, right? RIGHT?

9:08

Jeff Sullivan: Absolutely, and the signing team is likely to not be too thrilled about it

9:08

Jeff Sullivan: Davis is a good pitcher but he scares the crap out of me

9:10

Jose: How does Yelich’s value compare to Eaton’s last year?

9:10

Jeff Sullivan: I assume it’s higher. Even though Yelich costs more money, he’s younger, and he’s considered to be a stronger overall hitter, even despite Eaton’s good wRC+ marks

9:11

Jeff Sullivan: The team control is identical. Eaton was already playing around his offensive ceiling; Yelich’s offensive ceiling is higher than this

9:12

Jstodola : Is Rondon a good fit for the Astros?

9:12

Jeff Sullivan: He’s a good reliever. No team can have too many good relievers. He still has his velocity and he still has his strikeouts. Over his career he hasn’t had a marked platoon split

9:13

Jeff Sullivan: Astros could still use a good reliable lefty but Rondon isn’t supposed to fill that role

9:14

James: I’m sick of the Pirates just sitting here doing nothing. Hopefully Cole is traded soon.

9:14

Tim: So are the Pirates trading Cole soon?

9:14

Jeff Sullivan: I know they say they haven’t picked a direction. They should pick a direction. They should move Cole

9:16

Justin: Would Adams and Frazier be a good return for the Pirates for Cole?

9:16

Jeff Sullivan: I think they could do better than that, but I don’t think as highly of Frazier as many Yankees fans seem to

9:17

Jeff Sullivan: Adams is neat but his 2017 didn’t wow me

9:18

Brendon: I always hear about players needing/losing bat speed, but I’ve never seen bat speed as a statcast component.  Why are we not actually measuring how much bat speed a player has?  Or is that not actually important?

9:18

Jeff Sullivan: Bat speed is very closely related to exit velocity, so we already have a proxy

9:19

Jeff Sullivan: But there are kind of two sorts of bat speed — maximum bat speed generated, and time between swing decision and swing completion

9:19

Jeff Sullivan: There are tools out there that purport to measure bat speed, but that information is private, and Statcast can’t feasibly replicate it

9:20

Jay: Quick! Before the details of the trade break! The Padres did good if they gave up less than ____ for Galvis.

9:21

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t really see the point of this, other than having Galvis as a placeholder for a year

9:21

Jeff Sullivan: The Padres needed a shortstop. Galvis is a shortstop. He’s not a very good one, but he’s young enough to avoid declining into something terrible. This is his walk year

9:22

Jeff Sullivan: I guess it does mean the Padres didn’t ultimately overpay for a different, longer-term shortstop solution

9:23

Blackburn: Chances Cole/Cutch/Harrison get traded this offseason?

9:23

Jeff Sullivan: I want to say pretty high, but I wonder if the market might feel over-saturated with other teams leaning toward a rebuild phase

9:24

Kahneman: Is the cbt suppressing wages? Should the threshold be raised?

9:24

Jeff Sullivan: Yes, probably

9:25

Brett W: Should the Cubs get out of Mike Montgomery’s way and let him be their 5th starter?

9:25

Jeff Sullivan: They should do better than that. Montgomery is most valuable to them in his current swingman role

9:25

Charlie: Is covering the Winter Meetings as fun as it seems?

9:25

Jeff Sullivan: lol no

9:26

Jeff Sullivan: It’s enjoyable to be able to see so many people in person, and of course it is a fairly memorable experience every December, but the actual working environment is bad. I find it extremely distracting, and I know that I could do a better job of actually covering the winter meetings from home

9:27

Jeff Sullivan: The meetings are also bad for everyone’s sleep. The week seems to drag on forever

9:27

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: I am getting used to the idea that I will be attending a lot of Padres games this summer, and Freddy Galvis is a way more exciting acquisition to me than Eric Hosmer would be, because it is upgrading a weak position rather than…I don’t know what Hosmer would do. Besides flipping Headley or moving Solarte for more minor leaguers, what other fringe moves do you see the Padres pursuing?

9:28

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the Padres are very interested in fringe moves. I mean, I know that Galvis is a fringe move, but the Padres are thirsty to make some kind of impact

9:28

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: A lot of people are talking about Machado to the White Sox, which had me thinking: If the Braves international free agents scandal did not happen, how likely do you think it would be that the Braves would be leading the charge for Machado? They’ve basically needed a third baseman since Chipper Jones. (Martin Prado, Chris Johnson, Alberto Callaspo, Adonis Garcia…)

9:29

Jeff Sullivan: I just don’t know why any bad team would be involved. Machado almost certainly wants to test the market in a year. There’s no point in a bad team having him for 2018. The only sense it would make is if said bad team were just going to turn around and immediately flip Machado to the Yankees

9:30

Ed in Iowa: Did you eat at any of the Disney restaurants? If so, how were they? I recommended Sanaa to Travis, but I have no idea if he went

9:31

Jeff Sullivan: The eating one tends to do during the winter meetings is also very bad

9:31

Jeff Sullivan: Massive credit to Chris Mitchell — he somehow found a way to go to the gym

9:32

gcarter: Who gets the most saves on the Twins?  Are they looking to sign any of the free agent closers?

9:32

Jeff Sullivan: I have some very interesting news for you

9:34

He Hate Me: Let’s say the Giants agree to take on Ellsbury’s contract. How much more (in prospects) does Cashman need to add to make it work?

9:35

Jeff Sullivan: So Ellsbury’s contract is probably underwater by $30-40 million

9:36

Jeff Sullivan: Start with Chance Adams and go from there

9:36

Jeff Sullivan: We were already talking about him a little bit earlier, so might as well bring him back up

9:36

Deep end of the Kranepool: With the signing of Anthony Swarzak, the Mets now have 24 pitchers on the 40-man roster. That sounds like a high number to me. Is that normal these days?

9:36

Jeff Sullivan: The Braves have 26!

9:37

Jeff Sullivan: I would assume that 24 is a little high. Probably by…two or three?

9:38

Ben: If you had the #1 pick in the amateur draft and could pick someone with a 100% chance of being a really good player (the next Adrian Gonzalez, Curtis Granderson, or Matt Holliday) OR someone with a 50% chance of being a generational talent on the level of Pujols, A-Rod, or Trout but a 50% chance of being the next Bryan Bullington, Delmon Young, or Mark Appel, which would you choose?

9:39

Jeff Sullivan: So, somewhat conveniently, the way it works out is that the generational players are worth about twice as much WAR as the regular good players

9:39

Jeff Sullivan: Therefore, just based on basic math, it shouldn’t make a difference

9:40

Jeff Sullivan: But I’ll lean toward the 50% generational player chance, because I think I prefer upside over steadiness there, and the upside of having an all-time great goes beyond just the on-field WAR

9:40

Concrete Fan: What are your thoughts on the Piscotty trade? Considering his personal situation it seems like a ‘win-win’ trade.

9:40

Jeff Sullivan: I have a hunch the Cardinals are going to do well with Schrock

9:41

Jeff Sullivan: But, yeah, win-win. It’s smart for the A’s to try to get a cost-controlled player when he’s down

9:41

Boneless watermelon: Which team’s offseason are you most impressed by?

9:41

Jeff Sullivan: Default is the Angels, because they got Ohtani. No one else will compete with their getting Ohtani

9:41

Jeff Sullivan: Also, the offseason remains extremely incomplete

9:42

Unlce Rico: Can the Red Sox realistically except to unload Hanely and his salary coming off a bad year and shoulder surgery?  I can’t see this happening to facilitate signing JD and Hosmer

9:42

Jeff Sullivan: Hosmer –> first base, Martinez –> outfield, outfielder –> trade block

9:43

Lou: Should the Marlins go for a Cuban centric team to try to win back the community?  And can the Dodgers use that to only flip Yadier Alvarez for Yelich?

9:43

Jeff Sullivan: Yes, no

9:43

Jeff Sullivan: I would love to see Puig end up a Marlin at some point

9:43

acj: Do you think it would be wise for the White Sox to trade for Machado and try to extend him and if they can not they could just trade him at the  deadline for prospects ? Should be able to get back at least what they would give up for him.

9:43

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think an extension window is going to be granted

9:44

Jeff Sullivan: Nor do I think Machado is the kind of guy who gets flipped midseason for a blockbuster return. That’s usually pitchers

9:44

Jeff Sullivan: It only makes sense to me if the White Sox get Machado and then trade him a few days later

9:44

BJOGC: Max schrocks stock continues to rise, how angry would you be if he turns into a star?

9:44

Jeff Sullivan: 0% angry

9:44

El Jefe: Who are the Yankees starting 2nd/3rd Basemen on opening day? Torres called up start of May?

9:46

Jeff Sullivan: I think there’s a 2/3 chance the third baseman isn’t in the system yet, and a 1/3 chance the third baseman is Andujar. Torres will probably handle second for the bulk of the season

9:46

Mac Gwire: What should the Yankees do with their rotation? Just sign Sabathia? Trade a few good prospects for Gerrit Cole? A lot of good prospects for Fulmer?

9:47

Jeff Sullivan: I think they should be content with Sabathia, but they should try for Cole. I’m less interested in Fulmer

9:47

Go Go Gadget Hamate Bone: Why are the Padres going after Hosmer?

9:47

Jeff Sullivan: They probably think he can change their culture. They see him as a face of the franchise, and in this market, they don’t have much competition for his services

9:47

Lee: Chances of a Yelich trade? Where do you think he ends up?

9:48

Jeff Sullivan: There’s an extremely high chance he gets traded within the next year. No reason for him to want to stick around. And like 20 teams would be interested in getting him, so I could never pick a favorite

9:50

Mac Gwire: Who’s your favorite low-cost reliever left on the market?

9:50

Jeff Sullivan: I’m not sure there is such a thing as a low-cost reliever in this market

9:50

Jeff Sullivan: But I’m waiting on someone to give Trevor Cahill a very interesting chance

9:50

Jeff Sullivan: Maybe you don’t buy him as a starter anymore, because of durability issues, but he could be a very useful get for like 80 bullpen innings

9:51

Thomas: If the Yankees get Cole — does their projected win total jump from 91 to 94? 95? 96?

9:51

Jeff Sullivan: Cole is something on the order of a 3-win pitcher, and he wouldn’t be stepping in for a zero

9:51

BossMan: Expectiations for Lucas Giolito”

9:51

Jeff Sullivan: Very skeptical

9:52

Boneless watermelon: How much does poaching a team’s coaches affect player performance? Does taking a member of cardinals development team help more than another? Is Jim hickey as valuable in Chicago as he was in Tampa bay?

9:53

Jeff Sullivan: Unknowable, but generally speaking, it should be assumed that any one coach in a strong organization is part of a system. There’s a whole chain of individuals responsible for good player development, and the absence of one coach shouldn’t make an enormous difference

9:53

Jeff Sullivan: The Marlins certainly didn’t learn how to pitch after hiring Jim Benedict

9:53

Drew: Hi Jeff, I’m interested in your thoughts on the surplus value of Chris Archer, and whether the Rays will move him this winter to take advantage of it? It doesn’t really seem like they have an open window for success right now, so it makes sense. But how much will they get in return given his favorable contract?

9:54

Jeff Sullivan: I keep waiting for Archer rumors to gain more traction. Four more seasons of potential control. He’s enormously valuable. If and when he hits the block, the Rays would be positioned to get a lucrative haul

9:55

Jimmy: How unlikely was Andrew Cashner’s ERA this season with his peripherals?

9:55

Jeff Sullivan: About as unlikely as it gets

9:56

Jeff Sullivan: Allowed a .340 wOBA with the bases empty. Dropped to .232 with runners in scoring position

9:58

Jimmy: What are your thoughts on Scott Alexander? His ability to generate GBs is seemingly very special.

9:58

Jeff Sullivan: That is the full extent of my thoughts

9:58

Jeff Sullivan: Also, he just gained like three miles per hour between seasons. Weird!

9:58

Walt: Do you think Cubs are done acquiring pitching?

9:58

Jeff Sullivan: No

9:59

JR: Morejon and Ona for Yelich?

9:59

Jeff Sullivan: Not close

10:01

IsIt2015Yet?: Does Cole + Harrison + Freese make sense for Frazier, Andujar, Sheffield with Pirates throwing in say $5M-$10M to offset Harrison and Freese salaries? Seems to check a lot of boxes for both teams.

10:02

Jeff Sullivan: It would mostly be about how high the Pirates might be on Frazier. If they’re much higher than I am, there’s something workable there

10:02

Eric Blair : Winning the world series would seem to be the main goal of each team. Are the Jays delaying trading JD to get a better package or is their simply to go for the middle in 2018. The later seems like a dumb strategy for their fans.

10:03

Jeff Sullivan: The Jays are close enough to feel like they have a shot. Plus, it doesn’t help them at all that so many free agents are still available and now Manny Machado is on the block. Donaldson would not be the only option for a team looking to make a 3B splash

10:04

kook: would you give up more for machado or donaldson?

10:04

Jeff Sullivan: Oh man

10:05

Jeff Sullivan: Machado is seven years younger, and that gives him a massive advantage, plus Donaldson just experienced some health problems

10:05

Jeff Sullivan: But it’s also just one year of control, so it’s not like you have to project too far into the future

10:05

Jeff Sullivan: I’ll say Machado, because of his age, but I’m like 55/45

10:07

Adam Cole: What does a potential return from the Cardinals look like for Alex Colome?

10:08

Jeff Sullivan: Let’s say…O’Neill and a marginal young pitcher from the upper levels

10:10

Derek Falvey: % chance the Twins land Darkish?

10:10

Jeff Sullivan: 20%

10:10

Wes: What was the biggest news from the Winter Meetings? I’ve been out of the loop for almost a week. I didn’t see any big headlines.

10:10

Jeff Sullivan: Ozuna going to St. Louis was probably the biggest deal

10:12

Sharp: With regards to the Marlins selloff, what if the Nats offered Wieters (but eating his contract), Bautista, AJ Cole, and a lottery ticket like Santos or Marmolejos, and took Chen and his whole contract to get Realmuto?

10:14

Jeff Sullivan: I think you might actually be pretty close. I don’t think very much of Cole or Bautista, all things considered, but Chen’s contract is so far underwater that there’s big value for the Marlins in just shedding him

10:14

Jeff Sullivan: Realmuto only has three years left. He won’t be around when the Marlins are good, if they’re ever good. With every additional subtraction they make, it starts to make more sense to go even deeper

10:15

Adam: Prediction: Which team makes the biggest error of offseason 2017-18?

10:15

Jeff Sullivan: My early favorites are whichever teams sign Hosmer or Arrieta

10:15

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t like the idea of Hosmer going to the Padres much at all, but I shouldn’t blame them for anything until it actually happens

10:15

Mickey Callaway: Why do I openly discuss my views on curveball usage? Wouldn’t other teams take that into account and know that my pitchers are more likely to throw curveballs?

10:16

Jeff Sullivan: It’s not like it’s going to take anyone by surprise

10:16

Jeff Sullivan: You can’t hide your team’s curveball rate

10:16

Jon Daniel: I have $35-40M left in budget space. What am I going to do?

10:17

Jeff Sullivan: You need starting pitching pretty bad. That money goes to starting pitching

10:17

Derek Falvey: How many arms will the Twins add?

10:17

Jeff Sullivan: I’ll guess one more starter and one more reliever, excepting spring-training NRIs

10:18

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: Which pitcher will get the more regrettable deal: Davis or Holland?

10:18

Jeff Sullivan: I’ll say Davis. I think he’ll get more, and I don’t like where his velocity is going

10:18

The Old Buccaneer: How much does the Stanton deal increase the chances Harper stays in DC?

10:18

Jeff Sullivan: Harper will not stay in DC

10:19

Thai: Would the dodgers be better if they pursue machado and trade Justin Turner?

10:19

Jeff Sullivan: I think Machado is better than Turner, but I don’t think the Dodgers should exchange multiple years of value for one

10:19

Asher: Opening Day 2018, and Manny Machado is playing for…

10:19

Jeff Sullivan: Wouldn’t be shocked if he finds his way to the Yankees

10:20

Jeff Sullivan: Angels could use him but they don’t have the firepower, most likely

10:20

Jeff Sullivan: I’ll say Yankees, then Cardinals, then Rockies

10:21

Jeff Sullivan: with the Rockies, he’d be playing short

10:21

Coz: How bad are the O’s goofing this up?

10:21

Jeff Sullivan: Don’t blame them for anything until something happens

10:21

Derek Falvey: Are the Twins more likely to trade for an arm or sign one?

10:21

Jeff Sullivan: Sign

10:21

brad: Jeff.  Does Montgomery and Betances for Schwarber make sense for both? Cubs get 4SP and a potential CP yanks get lefty DH to split Judge/Stanton, and use the betances and headley savings for a SP, worst case that is CC

10:21

Jeff Sullivan: Yankees don’t need to do that

10:22

Jack: What do the rangers need to do to be competitive this year?

10:22

Jeff Sullivan: Get a dozen of the best Astros sick

10:22

Babe Lincoln: Napoli to the Mets seems pointless for NYM, right?

10:22

Jeff Sullivan: Not totally pointless, but uninspiring

10:23

_David_: Would you forego $200M to work in Anaheim?

10:23

Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t forego $200 to work in Anaheim

10:24

Derek Falvey: How’s Rodney gonna do?

10:24

Jeff Sullivan: I’ll say this for Rodney: he’s 40 years old, and he still throws his fastball reliably around 95 miles per hour

10:24

Jeff Sullivan: In that sense, Fernando Rodney is really exceptional

10:24

Mac Gwire: Would it be a) fun b) terrible c) something in between if the Yankees somehow managed to add Machado, too?

10:24

Jeff Sullivan: I embrace the idea of the Yankees once again looking like a totally hateable superteam

10:25

Jeff Sullivan: Baseball has been missing that

10:25

JD Martinez: Who are potential “mystery teams” for me?

10:25

Jeff Sullivan: If anything, I think you’re already being connected to more teams than is reasonable

10:25

Sleepy: In terms of 2018 WAR, the best player traded this offseason will be…

10:25

Jeff Sullivan: I guess Manny Machado

10:26

Jeff Sullivan: with a 40% chance of Chris Archer

10:26

Scott: Is trading for Machado enough to put the Giants in wild card contention?

10:26

Jeff Sullivan: Not on its own, no

10:26

Guest: The Twins tried earnestly to deal Dozier last offseason. Does it make sense for them to try again this winter?

10:26

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it does anymore. You don’t do that after a playoff season

10:27

Rob: Astros stock piling relievers and now seem to have a glut.  You think they have a trade coming (Hand/Britton?)

10:27

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think Britton is their guy, but a consolidation trade wouldn’t shock me in the least

10:27

Brendan: If Machado is traded to the White Sox, what are their chances at extending him?

10:27

Jeff Sullivan: 1%

10:28

Show Hey O’Tawny: Where’s Wednesday and Friday’s EW pods?

10:28

Jeff Sullivan: Just recorded one pre-chat and will record another post-chat. Couldn’t feasibly record any podcasts from the winter meetings

10:28

James: Is the Padres’ system deep enough to acquire Yelich without dealing Tatis or Gore?

10:28

Jeff Sullivan: Yep

10:29

Vincent Vega: Best/worst signing of the winter meetings?

10:30

Jeff Sullivan: It kind of feels like every single signing was a 7th or 8th inning righty reliever

10:30

Jeff Sullivan: And just about every single one of them signed for like $8 million a year

10:30

Jeff Sullivan: Fairly homogeneous

10:30

Manny Machado: Where do I end up? What’s the return like?

10:31

Jeff Sullivan: I’ve had trouble thinking of the last time a super good player was traded with one remaining year of control. Not a long record of precedent, and I think the return would/will surprise some people for not being as showy as you’d think

10:31

Adult Autograph Seeker: If you were the Cubs, would you rather…

…sign Cobb (even at $16-17mm per), keep BP as is now.

…sign Wade Davis, give Montgomery his desire to start, maybe sign another swingman (ie. Liriano)

10:31

Jeff Sullivan: Ehh, just sign Cobb

10:32

toki: White sox offer Giolito, Rutherford and Cease for Yelich.  Does that at least get the fish to the table if not complete the deal?

10:34

Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t want that if I were the Marlins. Giolito is down into the low 90s. He doesn’t interest me very much anymore

10:34

Billy Beane: So obviously the Angels made this more unlikely, but how close to a wild card team are the A’s looking now? Their offense was already quite good last year and is likely to be even better this year, their defense looks much improved… And their pitching has some upside (although with a lot of downside, too).

10:34

Jeff Sullivan: The pitching is a real weakness. With two surprising starters, the A’s can work their way to 85 wins or so, but this isn’t going to be their season

10:35

Billy Eppler: What should I do at third base?

10:35

Jeff Sullivan: That Josh Harrison rumor is appealing

10:35

Jeff Sullivan: And/or you could probably get Chase Headley for almost nothing

10:35

David: What do you think of the Fernando Rodney signing?  Is he still a decent closer?  Or do the Twins continue to look for more late inning relief help?

10:36

Jeff Sullivan: He’s okay. He has a worse reputation than he deserves, but he’s clearly in the lower tier of closers. Twins still need more help on the pitching side

10:36

_David_: What is the most you see the Mariners spending on a pitcher?

10:36

Jeff Sullivan: They’re practically out of money to spend. So, that much

10:37

Watson: Will Mike Trout return to the playoffs this year?

10:37

Jeff Sullivan: I imagine that, come opening day, the Angels will be my favorite for ALWC2

10:37

Kiner’s Disembodied Hands: I know people are either pushing for the Pirate’s to go all in on a rebuild or buy in order to make themselves a contender, but couldn’t they do both with a Cole trade?  They already have several young cost controlled players on their roster, a complete rebuild would be a waste of that cheap talent.  They could potentially retool with a Cole trade and possibly compete relatively soon, if not this year.

10:38

Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, I don’t think a Cole trade means the Pirates tear all the way down. You can move him for talent that’s close to big-league ready

10:38

Peachie Keen: Predict the most likely thing that happens: Cozart to the Angels, Headley to the Angels, or Solarte to the Angels?

10:38

Jeff Sullivan: Guess I’ll say Headley. He’s the easiest for them to get

10:38

Watson: Who has a better year: Chatwood or Mikolas?

10:38

Jeff Sullivan: Mikolas

10:39

Troy O’Leary: What are the odds that Christian Vazquez is an above average hitter relative to catchers in 2018?

10:39

Jeff Sullivan: Catchers just combined for a .726 OPS last season. Vazquez finished at .735 and projects at .695. I’ll say 33%

10:40

Birddog: Roch Said that AZ had doubled back on Machado, would a deal of Corbin + Lamb + one high minors and one low minors pitchers make sense?

10:40

Jeff Sullivan: I’m not sure why the Diamondbacks would want to subtract from their big-league roster to add to their big-league roster

10:41

Billy Eppler: How shocked would you be on a scale of 1-10 if Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani went 1-2 in the AL in WAR

10:41

Jeff Sullivan: Trout is already projected to lead the AL in WAR easily, so he wouldn’t surprise me at all. 1

10:42

Jeff Sullivan: In second is Josh Donaldson, projected at 6.3 WAR. Then Manny Machado is at 6.2. I would be 8 surprised if Ohtani were able to surpass that as a rookie

10:42

Michael: Over/under on the Oakland corner infield Matts (Chapman/Olson) putting up 7 wins combined this year

10:42

Jeff Sullivan: Under

10:42

BJOGC: Are any position players or starting pitchers ever going to sign a contract this offseason?

10:42

Jeff Sullivan: No. They will all form a free-agent team and compete next season as a 31st franchise

10:43

Mitch Haniger: How excited should Mariners fans feel about my 2018 season?

10:43

Jeff Sullivan: 6

10:43

Hugh: Which (if any) team would be interested in Ellsbury?

10:43

Jeff Sullivan: haha

10:44

Scott: What does Mariner’s fan Jeff have to say about the Cubs signing Steve Cishek? What kind of experience am I in for?

10:45

Jeff Sullivan: I like him fine, as one of those generic righty-killers, but whenever Cishek is out there against a lefty, he’s walking on eggshells. He gets them out most of the time, but Cishek against a lefty feels the same, emotionally, as Fernando Rodney against anyone

10:48

DTH: Eno posted this tweet a few days ago: ‘Mike Montgomery once explained to me that his walk rate was higher as a reliever because he didn’t care once he got to two or three balls. “Just give me the next guy and we’ll get out of this inning fine.” Usually walk rates improve with move to pen.’

your thoughts? I can actually squint and see it making sense, especially for a left handed pitcher who can hold those extra runners and doesn’t have premium stuff to get a guy out while being forced into the zone.

10:48

Jeff Sullivan: Looking at Montgomery’s career, his reliever walk rate is only up against righties. So I wouldn’t be surprised if, when he’s in the bullpen, he’s more commonly pitching around righties to get to the next lefty

10:50

Show Hey O’Tawny: Am I crazy for thinking the Yankees are better off trading for Michael Fulmer? More team control, and Cole’s results have never matched his stuff

10:51

Jeff Sullivan: I mean, of course, it all comes down to the acquisition cost. They’re both power pitchers with similar stuff and similar FIPs. Fulmer had his arm problems in 2017; Cole had his own in 2016

10:51

Jeff Sullivan: Hey, just saw that Carlos Santana went to the Phillies of all teams for three years and $60 million

10:52

Jeff Sullivan: That’s a…that’s not the fit I was expecting

10:53

Jeff Sullivan: Presumably, Santana goes to first and Hoskins goes to the outfield, so I wonder if the Phillies are looking to move Williams or Altherr for pitching

10:53

Jeff Sullivan: Very weird

10:53

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Given the (seemingly) underwhelming returns that the Marlins received on Stanton, Gordon, and Ozuna, shouldn’t all 29 other teams be putting up offers for Yelich, just if for no other reason than they could expect to get him for under his real value?

10:54

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the returns are all that bad. None of them are amazing, but none of those players possesses amazing value, given their contract situations

10:54

Jeff Sullivan: That being said, yes, everyone should be calling on Yelich, today and forever

10:54

Chet: I love what the Angels have done. That being said, I just can’t see how a team with playoff aspirations can give Albert Pujols 550+ AB’s. What do they do with Pujols this season?

10:55

Jeff Sullivan: Play him at first base every so often and render him a semi-regular. If Pujols ends up feeling various aches and pains playing the field, the Angels will make liberal use of the disabled list

10:55

Luke: Phillies just signed Carlos Santana, trying to compete in 2018? Landing spot for Machado? They surely have the prospect depth to do it.

10:55

Jeff Sullivan: They’re still not close

10:55

Wade boggs’ head: Do you think Brad Hand will get traded this offseason?

10:55

Jeff Sullivan: Next July

10:56

BESR: Cozart to LAA

10:56

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Angels sign Cozart, three year deal.

10:56

The Ghost of Wade Boggs: Cozart to the Angels

10:56

Jeff Sullivan: Oooooooookie doke

10:56

Jeff Sullivan: So Cozart is willing to play third base. The left side of that infield is going to be very good defensively. I don’t love Cozart as an offensive fit in Anaheim, but he’s going to be quite a bit different from Valbuena

10:57

Biff Bob Ertz: Odds that Mike Ford is a better player than Ryon Healy this year?

10:57

Jeff Sullivan: Decent!

10:57

Biff Bob Ertz: Do you think what Eppler has done in LAA is particularly meritorious, or do you think most of what looks good about Eppler is a) Simmons becoming a star and b) Ohtani?

10:57

Jeff Sullivan: Ohtani changes everything

10:57

Jeff Sullivan: Without him, the Angels look trapped in the middle. With him, it’s so much easier to see them in contention

10:57

Bret: Cozart to the Angels, 3 years 38 million just broke as well.

10:58

Jeff Sullivan: Ah, the ol’ Chatwood contract

10:58

HS Teacher: Would you trust Jerry Dipoto to rip the M’s apart in a rebuild effort? My worry is that his type [older guys with higher floors and lower ceilings] aren’t the best way to rebuild– or build– a squad.

10:58

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it’s up to him

10:58

Drew: The Angels got Zack Cozart! They still in the ALWC2 for you?

10:58

Jeff Sullivan: Well, they’re not going to be projected to win the division

10:58

Biff Bob Ertz: This is a silly exercise, but Kyle Lewis, Sam Carlson, and Evan White for Yelich?

10:58

Jeff Sullivan: Not even close

10:58

dan: Think Britton will be traded before opening day? Or do the O’s let him prove he’s healthy first and flip him at the deadline?

10:58

Jeff Sullivan: The latter. His stock is down too far right now

10:59

Jeff Sullivan: All right, I need to get rolling

10:59

Jeff Sullivan: So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again next week at the same time, and until then, be well and have great days

We hoped you liked reading Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 12/15/17 by Jeff Sullivan!

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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

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