Melvin Upton Signs With, Makes Sense for Indians

One player whom the baseball industry and vacationing families might not have expected to see this week at Disney’s sprawling Swan and Dolphin Resort, the site of this year’s Winter Meetings, was Melvin Upton Jr. You might have — particularly if you’re a Braves fans — erased Upton from your memory. But Upton was there to sell himself to interested clubs. He was ultimately successful.

More on that in a moment. First: a brief tour of Upton’s career, which has followed an unusual trajectory.

The former No. 2 overall pick and elite prospect was moved to the outfield early in his major-league career by the Rays due to his shortcomings at shortstop. And it was in Tampa’s center field where he emerged as a star-level player, averaging 3.6 WAR per season from 2007 to -12. Upton possessed a rare blend of plate discipline, power, and speed. He then signed a lucrative free-agent deal with the Braves. Things didn’t go well. He posted a -0.6 WAR in 2013 and a 0.3 mark in 2014. To rid themselves of the three years and $57 million remaining on Upton’s contract, the Braves included him with Craig Kimbrel in a package that sent both players to San Diego before the 2015 season.

And then something happened: Upton’s career offered another surprising plot twist. In 87 games with San Diego in 2015, Upton slashed .259/.327/.429 with a 110 wRC+ and 1.6 WAR. He reduced his strikeout rate by four percentage points from his time with Atlanta. He was back to his pre-Braves level.

Was it a fluke? Well, while he tailed off in the second half of 2016, his performance for the year again was more reminiscent of his pre-Braves performance — a point made by Jeff Sullivan some 18 months ago in a piece titled “I Don’t Mean to Alarm You But Melvin Upton Jr. Is Back.”

Upton also produced the second-best HR/FB mark of his career (17.4%) in 2016, posted a Speed Score that ranked among the game’s elite, and recorded one of his best defensive seasons. He rated as a neutral defender in center while posting +10 DRS over the course of a half-season in left. It was the best DRS total of his career at any position. In 2015 and 2016, he posted positive or neutral DRS grades in center for the first time in his career.

But Upton went missing again in 2017. After signing a minor-league deal with the Giants at the beginning of the season, he injured his thumb and logged just 49 Triple-A plate appearances. All told, the last three years have been composed of a strong year and a half (2015 and the first half of 2016), a weaker half-season (the latter part of 2016), and an injury-plagued campaign (2017). As a result, it’s difficult to say what he is now.

But one team, Cleveland, is curious. They signed Upton to a minor-league deal Friday. He can earn $1.5 million if he makes the team.

melvin upton jr. signs minors deal with the indians. $1.5M if he makes the team. give him credit for going to both the gm meetings and the winter meetings to see teams. shows you how much he wants to play.

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 15, 2017

Upton is a sneaky bet to break camp with Cleveland and add value in 2017.

The Indians do not need Upton to be a full-time player. Bradley Zimmer is the present and future in center, Lonnie Chisenhall is expected to receive the lion’s share of work in right, and Michael Brantley or Jason Kipnis will likely open as the club’s primary left fielder.

But what the Indians could be targeting is not only depth but a platoon outfield option as Brantley, Chisenhall, Kipnis, and Zimmer are all left-handed. The Indians appear to have made this a priority of late, earning a platoon advantage in 69% of their plate appearances in 2017, the league’s highest mark.

The Indians have the second-highest projected win totals at the moment (93) and have a projected 11-game edge over the Twins. They don’t need to rush into making any dramatic moves even after losing Bryan Shaw, Joe Smith, and perhaps Carlos Santana to free agency. Still, they could use a right-handed outfielder capable of playing center and left. Free-agent Austin Jackson filled such a role extremely well last year. Last winter, the Indians and Jackson agreed to a minor-league deal that contained a $1.5 million base salary.

What Upton has done extremely well in his last two seasons is crush left-handed pitching, posting consecutive marks of 124 wRC+ or better. (He has a 109 wRC+ for his career.)

The Indians might have signed themselves a useful weak-side platoon partner for Zimmer in center or depth for left, all at a bargain price. Brantley, Kipnis, and Zimmer all produced wRC+ marks of 83 or worse last season against left-handed pitching.

While it’s not unusual for a player in need of work to appear at the Winter Meetings, that Upton showed up in Orlando to sell himself was perhaps telling. He desperately wanted to redeem himself after his 2013-14 seasons with the Braves and his 2017 leaves some doubt as to whether he’s truly back. He’ll get a chance to prove that he is. For the Indians, it’s a low-risk bet worth placing. While many veterans in need of work sign minor-league deals, this one is particularly interesting.