Carlos Santana Makes It a Crowd in Philly
(Photo: Keith Allison)
Carlos Santana is trading Polish Boys for cheesesteaks, looks like, agreeing this afternoon on a three-year, $60 million deal (with an option for a fourth, at $17.5 million) to join the Phillies. The deal probably makes sense from a money standpoint, and Santana is a really good switch-hitting slugger with power and patience, but… does it make sense from the Phillies’ perspective?
If you estimate the cost of a win to be $8 million this offseason, assume that inflation is roughly 5% a year, and use Santana’s projected wins total for 2018 while adding a generic aging curve, you arrive at an estimated value of $68 million for three years of the first baseman. And that might even be on the light side: a win might actually be worth more like $9 million now. So, even though our own readers predicted a median deal of three years and $45 million for Santana, this actual real-life deal is reasonable.
| Year | Age | WAR | $/WAR | Est. Contract |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 32 | 3.2 | $8.0 M | $25.6 M |
| 2019 | 33 | 2.7 | $8.4 M | $22.7 M |
| 2020 | 34 | 2.2 | $8.8 M | $19.4 M |
| Totals | 8.1 | $67.7 M |
Assumptions
Value: $8M/WAR with 5.0% inflation (for first 5 years)
Aging Curve: +0.25 WAR/yr (18-27), 0 WAR/yr (28-30),-0.5 WAR/yr (31-37),-0.75 WAR/yr (> 37)
From a talent perspective, Santana has the types of skills — good discipline, at least — that should help him age gracefully at the plate even as the rest of his athleticism wanes. He’s been a top-40 hitter since he started getting regular playing time, he’s slugged in what is mostly a pitcher’s park, and some of his best years have come recently.
It’s hard not to like this deal. For any other team, that is — or, at least one that needed a slugger and was closer to contention. But the Phillies have just handed out a contract to an aging slugger who plays at the same position as their top young core player at a time when their perceived needs are more on the other side of the ball and the team is projected to win 76 games. It seems strange.
Let’s handle the concerns in order. It is true that Rhys Hoskins was penciled in at first, with Tommy Joseph behind him. But Hoskins is 24 years old and played 30 games in left last year without embarrassing himself. Even the advanced stats with a more negative appraisal of his fielding — Statcast’s Outs Above Average assessed him -2 defensive runs in limited time — don’t suggest he’ll be incapable of handling the outfield for a few years. Corner outfielders closest to him in the rankings — Kole Calhoun and Hunter Pence — aren’t moving off the corner outfield any time soon. It is a counting stat, so maybe he’s worse than that ranking, but it’s hard to tell. He missed eight catches last year and four of them were five-star chances (catches made 0-25%) and three of them were two-star (76-90%). He’s probably not good, but maybe he’s not terrible.
Even without a trade of an existing outfielder, this current lineup can work. Aaron Altherr is a righty, Nick Williams is a lefty, and between injuries and playing in American League parks, there are probably enough plate appearances to keep everyone developing and happy.
And there actually is a need at the plate. As much promise as the Phillies’ lineup possesses, they ended up with just the eleventh-best adjusted offense in the National League last year. Their pitching actually ranked higher. Getting better is getting better, anyway.
Now, about the timing. Travis Sawchick wondered earlier this offseason when the club might open their competitive window, but everyone knew the Phillies had money to spend and that it was simply a question of when they’d spend it. Does this signing keep them out of the bonanza for the very best players next year?
It’s hard to know a team’s actual budget, but we do know that the Phillies are in a major market and have run payrolls above $170 million in the past. With Santana’s money on the docket and generous estimations for arbitration raises, the Phillies are up to… $66 million for next year. They can still get in on Bryce Harper next year if they want. They can still buy a couple pitchers if they want. They have a lot left to spend.
But getting Harper to come to Philadelphia requires some winning. Getting that big free agent to come to town requires at least the feeling that everything is going in the right direction. So, even though the team is maybe now projected to win 75 games, that doesn’t matter. They’ve gotten closer to being able to land a big free agent, not further away.
Get the guys who will agree to take your money and will come on reasonable deals first. Improve anywhere you can. Fit them into the team any way you can without blocking core players from developing. Hope those core players like Maikel Franco and J.P. Crawford get better. Push the boulder up the hill. And then maybe the biggest free agent in 2018 or 2019 will look your way and say, “Hold on, wait, when did the Phillies get this good? “
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
You know Hosmer has to be pretty excited about this
Not really. While this contract puts Santana off the board, it’s possible that Santana was better liked by the industry over Hosmer. If Santana “only” got 3-60, then Hosmer might very well receive less.
This comment started off strong then took a hard left turn at the last sentence…
Seems weird for the Phils as currently constructed to spend money on non-pitching free agents, but barring that, yeah: it’s basically a “what does it hurt?” signing.
So if Santana ages well (as likely for him as anyone else) and Rhys Hoskins actually can play left field (possibly?) then this is a good move. Then whatever you lose in defensive WAR in left field you should gain back with Santana’s good defense at first, and it is a straight improvement of offensive WAR with Santana over Altherr/Williams.
That’s an expensive way to improve, and at kind of a weird time, and it requires at least one thing breaking right that is a little iffy. Even with this being good value for Santana in a vacuum, is this really the most cost-effective way to improve? Maybe it is, but it still feels weird. Maybe it’s just weird because you would think some other team would have topped this instead, even if by a little bit.
Right? You’d think the Phillies would have made some modest, low-cost improvements and then try to sign Harper or Machado in the next offseason. I mean, they could still do that potentially, but having Santana on the books can’t be easy to work around, especially when your best current player’s natural position is also 1B.
…you realize that this has literally no impact on their budget, right?
As Eno noted, the Phillies have run $170MM payrolls when competitive in the past. Their plurality owner (may be majority by now, last I saw he was around 49%) is an old billionaire who wants to rake in World Series pennants. And one thing Eno didn’t note – those $170MM payrolls came before their big TV deal which includes the usual massive payments plus a nice chunk of ownership in the Comcast RSN.
Sum it all up and you shouldn’t be surprised if the Phillies spend like the Dodgers or Yankees once they’re ready to take a step forward. It’s still possible they’ll be a bottom-line conscious, but I doubt it.
Exactly. The Phillies could offer Bryce Harper $80 million a year if they really wanted to.
“is this really the most cost-effective way to improve?”
Well, you have to figure the next step is that one or more of the sub-Hoskins young corner guys can easily be dealt now, right? You can buy depth because you want the ability to move some of that depth elsewhere, too. Maybe they don’t like the other places they could allocate these spendable free-agent dollars right now, so this could almost be viewed like “buying a prospect” from their own farm system, in the sense that it’s spending dollars in order to allow them to spend some prospect/controlled-player assets. That’s my best shot at making it make sense, anyhow.
I would endorse this except it’s not likely that Altherr or Williams is going to bring back much of a prospect. Quinn might work in a challenge trade if you figure he’s blocked. Who is looking to trade for a corner outfielder right now? I don’t doubt they could do it, but it might not net a great return.
Sure. But you wouldn’t have to get Chris Archer or whoever in return for it to be a real help, with the rotation and bullpen they’re currently working with.
Neither the bullpen nor rotation is outright bad. The bullpen could use some lefties, but the back end is solid. And you’ve got a rotation with three average guys plus Aaron Nola. With how important pitching has become, I don’t imagine they’ll get much for one corner bat.
I suppose getting pitching would help a bit. I doubt it would be much, though–it would probably be some non-contending team that has a dearth of long-term options in the outfield corners and has an expendable bullpen piece that they’re willing to trade in the always-be-trading-relievers mode.
The other scenario (which is probably at least as likely) is that you get Yairo Munoz and Max Schrock–position player prospects with limited upside.
Of course, the whole thing hinges on Hoskins being passable in left field. If that works, then the Phillies will be fine. If he is more like Matt Adams than he was last year it is very unlikely the return for Altherr/Williams will be worth it.
That’s your response and those are your reasons…wow just… lol…whose looking to trade for a young controllable corner outfielder? Havent a few teams already picked one up! And this early in the season.
A controllable, unproven corner outfielder? No, not a lot of teams are going to give up a lot Altherr or Williams. Especially not with Avisail Garcia, Domingo Santana, and who knows how many other corner outfielders also on the trade market. The Stephen Piscotty return is likely what we’re going to see, which is…a 65 cents on the dollar kind of trade.
I mean, think about it. The whole point of them signing Carlos Santana was to dramatically improve on them. They’re not premium pieces.
I know this move will be dissected ad infinitum over WAR and dWAR, but simply put: look how Santana can possibly anchor and stabilize this young lineup.
This isn’t gonna be their last move…come on your better than this…
Hate to be that guy (he says, right before he does that thing that guy always does)…
…even though it was a throw away comment about Hoskins’s comps, but Happ absolutely isn’t limited to a corner OF spot and spent 75% of his time last year at either CF or 2b. Now maybe he might be best in a corner OF spot, but…
So yeah, sorry.
I clarified the language. Just used outfielders close to him in the rankings. Took Happ out too, you’re right.
Not a perfect comp, but reminds me of 2003-’04 offseason when Tigers, coming off a 43-119 season, signed Ivan Rodriguez. Three years later, they were in the WS. Dombrowski and fellow Tigers execs always said they never get Magglio or some others if they didn’t sign Pudge.
Certainly an odd signing at first blush, but the more I think about it … I like it. Philly has lots of money to spend and this is a very fair contract for a good player. Hoskins looked fine in LF and there will be plenty enough ABs for Williams/Altherr to find out if either is really anything more than a replacement level player. It seems like Philly is setting themselves up very nicely to sign one of Harper/Machado (if they are lucky). RF and 3B will be open. Franco is not the answer at third after two straight poor seasons. But they could have a very good position player core going into 2019 (Hoskins/Kingery/Crawford/Santana/Herrera). If Nola stays healthy and some of their young SP takes a step forward this could be a decent team. At this point it might make sense for them to *consider* making a run at Darvish given that they have the money and the SP free agent market next year is poor (Kershaw-likely to remain in LA, Keuchel, and then a huge drop). Also, it will be much easier to convince Harper or Machado to come to Philly if they win at least 82 games this year instead of finishing below .500
I agree mostly because Philly has endless cash to spend this winter and next…Eno notes they have $66 million in payroll obligations for next season. The Phillies had a $177 million payroll in 2014. One would think they could stand to increase that to a figure near the 2019 luxury tax threshold ($206 million). That leaves about $140 million to spend between now and next offseason. They easily could sign Machado AND Harper with that, plus pay all their arb-eligible players, plus probably sign some less expensive free agents too.
Personally I think it’s a big assumption to say a few extra wins will lure Harper to Philly, or be of significant help in doing so. Especially when that’s one of the only ways you can rationalize this signing.
I disagree that it’s hard to rationalize the signing. They have the money and it’s a fair contract. Williams and Altherr still get more than enough plate appearances to prove themselves. If you assume a straight 50/50 time split in RF that’s 350 PA’s each. And then if you assume they also split the interleague 300 DH PA’s that’s a total of 500 PA’s each. So likely something around 500 PA’s each instead of 600 each if Hoskins wasn’t in LF. And as for Hoskins, the fact that he looked just fine in LF last year and they now have the confidence to move him there full time means it’s likely not a big deal for him to play LF.
“And then if you assume they also split the interleague 300 DH PA’s that’s a total of 500 PA’s each.” Um, the Phillies will have closer to 30 DH PAs than 300. They don’t have that many games in AL parks.
Sorry, shouldn’t have said interleague. I’m just using the 300 DH PA’s that fangraphs uses on the team depth chart pages … http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=26
So 300 includes pinch-hit PA’s in addition to interleague. Still think an additional 450 PA’s next year will be enough to find out how good Altherr/Williams really are
Hoskins ranked 37th in UZR/150 and 38th in DRS among left fielders with at least two hundred innings, although those numbers don’t mean much over such a small sample. He is perceived to be a below average athlete for a major leaguer, and he had never played left field as a professional until his 33 games (30 major / 3 minor) last season. It’s definitely possible that he will be better with more experience, but it feels extraordinarily risky to bet this much money that he can handle left field competently over a full season. I would not have made this move.
It may be risky – but so is relegating a 24 yo to 1B duties on a team with no DH as a fallback. The only way to see if he can play OF is to – actually play him in OF. If the manager’s alternative at 1B is Tommy Joseph vs Carlos Santana, then he’d never play OF. If things don’t work, then I’m not sure any of the contracts – Hoskins, Santana, Joseph – or Franco (who’s gonna have to move off 3rd sooner than later) – become unmoveable.
That said – with Rhys Hoskins and Maikel Franco both playing statue – and SS a black hole right now, right-handed batters could have a field day v the Phillies and it won’t matter who’s at first cuz they’ll all arrive at second standing up.
I don’t follow the logic there. There’s no risk in whether or not Hoskins can handle first base adequately. If you’re suggesting that Hoskins might not end up being the offensive force he was over a short sample last season, that’s valid, but the same would be true in left field. Given that the Phillies have a number of interesting young options in the outfield, pushing their first baseman into left for a 32 year old who will be in decline by the time the team is ready to contend is pretty strange.
Might’ve been better off signing Moustakas. Depending on your opinion on Franco. Outfield is set with Williams, Herrera and Altherr. An infield of Moustakas, Crawford, Kingery and Hoskins is really good.
The issue with your argument is that Santana is significantly better at baseball than Moose Tacos.
Or is there more to come from the Phillies? Will some of the young, controllable outfield glut be traded for pitching? Cesar Hernandez to NYM for Steven Matz might help both clubs, if Matz is healthy. But NYM also has a LH first baseman in Domonic Smith who hit .198 in his late season call-up. Would another OF allow Monforto to spend some time at 1B? Would RH Tommy Joseph have a role in a platoon with Smith at 1B?
Altherr or Williams for Odorizzi?
What’s weird to me (other than this signing in general) is how many people talk about Altherr and Williams relatively interchangeably, whether as trade fodder or in terms of outfield playing time. I’d view Altherr as the much more promising and interesting player between the two. Altherr has had significantly more major league success (see his 2015 debut, his horrendous 2016 season can’t be ignored of course but injuries likely played a large role in his struggles) and has demonstrated an intriguing power, speed, and patience combination at various times in the past. Defensive stats were way down on him last year, which is concerning but runs counter to his prior scouting reports as a strong athlete (perhaps a Phillies fan can comment on his defense, as I have not actually seen him play much) as well as his defensive stats from previous years. On the other hand, Williams’s major league success resulted almost entirely from a high BABIP offsetting his poor plate discipline and decent but not great power. His defense also rated poorly by UZR and I don’t recall him being viewed as a similar caliber of athlete as Altherr.
TL;DR, I think Altherr is a very interesting and potentially valuable piece, and I don’t really feel the same way about Williams, so it’s weird to me that people seem to be viewing them as interchangeable assets.
1) trade Hernandez and one of Herrera/Williams/Altherr and two prospects to KC for Duffy. Sign Liriano to a two-year deal.
2) if Duffy isn’t available or the Phils want to hang on to Hernandez, sign both Liriano and Garcia.
Nola
Duffy/Garcia
Eick/VV
Liriano
Pivetta/Leiter/Thompson/Lively
Would love to see that rotation; solid mix of lefties/righties and some much-needed veteran presence. As with everyone else, I was shocked by the Santana signing but it’s starting to grow on me a bit, especially as this will help move OF talent for a SP. With Galvis out the door now, though, the Phils may decide to hang on to Hernandez so that they don’t depend too heavily on rookies Crawford and Kingery up the middle. Will be exciting to see how they approach the rest of the offseason.
Just to throw it out there as a possibility: Are we 100% sure they aren’t trading Hoskins?
Is it possible they may be able to get some team to vastly overpay based on last year’s small sample and his perceived ability to play left field?
Could this end up getting them a good starting pitcher, like the Will Myers deal for James Shields? I know that didn’t really work out, but could this get the Phillies Chris Archer (or someone a tier lower)?
It’s the only way this really makes sense to me, even though I get Eno’s rationale.
To Toronto for Stroman?
Seems strange when the trend is to sacrifice infield defense and instead put Centerfielders in the outfield corners due to more flyballs hit and the shift. I thought the days of slow sluggers in outfield corners are gone.
Now hoskins wasn’t technically horrible but he is not a good athlete I think longenhagen would not consider him an outfielder.teams like the dodgers, astros, yankees, red sox all have plus fielders in left.
Now it does improve the offense but probably hurts the pitchers as even if he doesn’t suck it takes away from a phillies strength (of defense) last year.
I think they could have spend the money better on a solid 3 starter.
As he alluded to, I think this signing is mostly to get someone to want to play there next year. You don’t have to squint much to see them being around .500 this year, and maybe that is the whole idea. Be competitive, get one of the big free agents to sign next year.
The Phillies were projected to win 76 games before acquiring Santana but only 75 games after acquiring him?