2017 ZiPS Projections – Los Angeles Angels

After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Los Angeles Angels. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Boston / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Detroit / Houston / San Diego / Tampa Bay / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
Most everyone has become comfortable with the fact that Mike Trout (680 PA, 9.0 zWAR) is the world’s best living ballplayer. Merely because one has grown accustomed to his excellence, however, doesn’t preclude one from wanting to have that greatness illustrated periodically. Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections facilitate an opportunity to do that. ZiPS, like other projection systems, is inherently conservative. Despite that, Trout is forecast for nine wins. For reference, consider that, since 2011, a player has reached the nine-win threshold on just six occasions. (On four of those occasions, of course, the player in question was Trout himself.) By definition, a nine-win season is an outlier. Nevertheless, Szymborski’s computer has suggested that as the median outcome for Trout in 2017.

Beyond Trout, unfortunately, there’s little reason for enthusiasm here. Kole Calhoun (620, 3.0) and Andrelton Simmons (574, 3.4) offer some promise. Of the remaining six positions on the club’s offensive depth chart, though, five of them are expected to produce only about a win.

Pitchers
Angels starters produced the third-worst collective WAR among major-league rotations in 2016. The only significant alteration this offseason has been to replace Jered Weaver with Jesse Chavez (134.1 IP, 1.2 zWAR). Given Weaver’s troubles last year, that’s not an entirely inconsequential exchange. It doesn’t lift the group into the average range, however. As might be expected, Garrett Richards‘ projection (114.0, 1.9) features a collection of strong rate stats, but a less strong innings total. Unsurprising, that, given his mostly lost 2017 campaign.

The Angels bullpen was also third-worst in the league by FIP-based WAR. As is the case with the rotation, basically all the principal members of that group return in 2017. Cam Bedrosian (61.0 IP, 0.6 zWAR) receives the relief corps’ best projection by basically every measure, including park-adjusted ERA (81 ERA-).

Bench/Prospects
The express intent of the present document isn’t to facilitate an exercise in disappointment. However, examining the club’s role players and prospects, it’s difficult to offer much hope here, either. Outfielder Ryan LaMarre (312 PA, 0.7 zWAR), signed to major-league deal this offseason, receives the top WAR projection among players not included on the depth chart below. Regardless of what Szymborski’s dumb computer suggests, infielder Sherman Johnson (564, 0.4) is a ray of sunshine in a world that otherwise offers zero rays of sunshine.

Among pitchers, Andrew Heaney (136.2 IP, 1.8 zWAR) and Nick Tropeano (116.0, 1.3) earn the third- and fifth-best WAR forecasts on the Angels. Unfortunately, both underwent Tommy John procedures this past summer and are likely to return only late in the season, if at all. Left-hander John Lamb (124.2, 1.0) represents an interesting depth piece. Unfortunately, back surgery has likely rendered him unable to return for the start of the season, as well.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Angels, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.