The Strong Free-Agent Pitching Class of 2017-18
Teams have been less than enthusiastic with this year’s class of free-agent starters. Only two pitchers, Rich Hill and Edinson Volquez, have received multi-year contracts worth more than $10 million per season. Combined, the years and dollars on their contracts equal the same five years and $70 million that Ian Kennedy received from the Kansas City Royals last year, the eighth-highest contract given to a starting pitcher during the 2015-16 offseason.
There’s good reason for the lack of sizable free-agent contracts for starters this winter: the class isn’t particularly good. While some have already begun looking ahead to the monster class of free agents available after the 2018 campaign — one that includes Bryce Harper, Matt Harvey, Clayton Kershaw, Dallas Keuchel, Manny Machado, and David Price — next year’s class should actually be quite strong as well. It might be even stronger than the 2018-19 offseason’s free agents on the pitching side.
The effect of opt-outs in contracts has been rather small thus far. In recent years, Alex Rodriguez and CC Sabathia both opted out of their contracts and then re-signed with the New York Yankees. Zack Greinke opted out of his contract with the Dodgers last winter and cashed in with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Next winter, we’re going to see the first full-fledged offseason during which opt-outs could loom large.
Here are the pitchers whose contracts feature opt-outs after next season, including the remaining money on their deals, per MLB Trade Rumors.
| Name | 2016 WAR | 2017 Projections | 2017 AGE | Opt Out (Yrs./$M left) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Cueto | 5.5 | 4.2 | 31 | 4/$84 M |
| Masahiro Tanaka | 4.6 | 3.9 | 28 | 3/$67 M |
| Wei-Yin Chen | 0.8 | 2.5 | 31 | 3/$52 M |
| Ian Kennedy | 1.7 | 2.1 | 32 | 3/$43 M |
Chen, Cueto, and Kennedy all signed their free-agent deals just last offseason, while Tanaka will be four years into the seven-year deal he signed with the Yankees back before the 2014 season. If Tanaka posts another four-win season this year, he seems like the best bet to opt-out. He’ll be entering his age-29 season, and would seem to be assured of finding terms than those remaining on his contract with the Yankees. The decisions for the other three starters are less clear.
Chen is coming off a disappointing season. If he rebounds, though, opting for free agency to get another four or five years might make sense — even at a lesser average annual value. Kennedy’s contract seemed like an overpay by Kansas City at the time — and he still seems like a decent bet to stay with the club — but if he puts together a strong 2017 campaign, he might test the market. Cueto is owed the most money of this group, but if he approximates his performance his 2016 numbers in 2017, he’d be in a situation similar to the one in which Zack Greinke found himself last year. All four pitchers could reap the benefits of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, given that penalties for players who’ve been extended a qualifying offer have now lessened.
Even if just those four players represented the best of next year’s free agent class, it would still mark a significant step up from this year. Cueto and Tanaka are pretty far out in front of Rich Hill in terms of performance and age, while the only other pitchers to record two-plus wins en route to free agency this year were 43-year-old Bartolo Colon, Jeremy Hellickson (who never made it to free agency), and Ivan Nova.
The four players in the table above do not represent the entirety of the free-agent starting-pitcher market for next year, however. At the top of the heap, there will be two proven aces and two younger players who could earn themselves a lot of money with good years.
| Name | 2016 WAR | 2017 Projections | 2017 AGE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yu Darvish | 2.7 | 4.5 | 30 |
| Jake Arrieta | 3.8 | 4.1 | 31 |
| Michael Pineda | 3.2 | 3.5 | 28 |
| Danny Duffy | 2.8 | 3.1 | 28 |
If Cueto and Tanaka opt out, there could be six free-agent pitchers who enter the 2017-18 offseason sporting better future projections than Rich Hill does this offseason. This year, it’s tough to fill out a decent five-man rotation with free agents, while next year we could see a top-of-the-line squadron of pitchers hitting free agency. Nor is it not just at the top where next year’s class is solid.
This offseason’s free-agent class features eight pitchers — (Colon, Hellickson, Hill, Nova, Volquez, Jhoulys Chacin, R.A. Dickey, and Jason Hammel) — who are currently projected to record at least 1.4 WAR next season. Only seven reached that in win-projection threshold last season (same group minus Dickey). We don’t yet know what this year’s group of free agents will do, but it’s hard to fathom they won’t be significantly improved next season. Even assuming that none of the pitchers above exercise their opt-outs, there are 17 pitchers with a projection greater than 1.4 WAR, 10 of at least 2.0 WAR, along with the four above 3.0 WAR mentioned above.
| Name | 2016 WAR | 2017 Projections | 2017 AGE |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Lackey | 3.1 | 2.8 | 38 |
| Tyler Chatwood | 2.1 | 2.3 | 27 |
| Jaime Garcia | 1.2 | 2.3 | 30 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | 3.2 | 2.2 | 30 |
| Bartolo Colon | 2.9 | 2.2 | 44 |
| Francisco Liriano | 0.4 | 2.0 | 33 |
| CC Sabathia | 2.6 | 1.9 | 36 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | 1.6 | 1.9 | 29 |
| Lance Lynn | 0.0 | 1.9 | 30 |
| Alex Cobb | -0.1 | 1.6 | 29 |
| Marco Estrada | 3.0 | 1.5 | 33 |
| Chris Tillman | 2.4 | 1.4 | 29 |
| Jason Vargas | 0.3 | 1.4 | 34 |
While Colon, Lackey, and Sabathia are all old by the standards of the game, seven of the pitchers in the group above will be just 30 years old or younger next year. Hellickson represented one of the very best pitchers on the market this winter. Next year, if Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn will rebuild their value, he could find himself outside the top-10 best starting pitchers. This list doesn’t even include Tyson Ross, who might increase his value considerably. There’s also another list of guys who could pitch their way to relevancy, including Clay Buchholz, Andrew Cashner, Nathan Eovaldi, Miguel Gonzalez, Derek Holland, and Hector Santiago.
While the free-agent market for starting pitchers this season has been pretty brutal, things will be much better a year from now. We don’t know what will happen over the course of the next year — last year at this time, Stephen Strasburg was going to be the jewel of this winter’s class — but it certainly seems like those in need of pitching next offseason will have some very good options from which to choose. The new CBA should help expand the number of teams able to pursue pitchers who’ve been extended a qualifying offer, and the proliferation of contracts featuring opt-outs last winter could bolster the crop of pitchers both at the top and in the middle.
Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.
Seeing Bartolo projected for 2.2 WAR at age 44 makes me smile. He is a treasure.
Wouldn’t the potential depth of the free agent class be a reason not to opt out for Chen and Kennedy?
No, there is little reason for them to expect it to affect their value much. The dearth of free agents this offseason did not inflate their prices. For both, depending on their 2017 performance, the upside of a new contract (after opting out) compared to the risk of being unsignable after the end of their current contract (if they don’t opt out) would be a much more significant factor.
A lack of free agents might not inflate someone’s price but a wealth of free agents would certainly seem to hurt someone’s price. Teams don’t have to spend all of their available money, so a lack of free agents wouldn’t always inflate prices (although the lack of free agents available may have inflated the price for Sale). However, there are a finite number of available roster spots each year with teams having finite budgets. If there is $300M available free agent salaries collectively for pitchers, the more people you have that have better resumes and bargaining positions than you do that sign out of that $300M takes away from your potential salary.
Salary is relative. If a crowded market deflates prices, then a sparse market inflates prices. However, we don’t observe either in significant degree.
The other thing is that supply and demand in free agent cases are not pure, in that free agency is not a closed system. Firstly, supply implies demand to some extent, in that every free agent is a player that was previously on a team, meaning that team now is missing a player they used to have. If that team is a contender, then that definitely adds to the demand at the same time as it adds to the supply. If a non-contender loses a free agent, then were that player not a free agent, that non-contender would likely make that player available to trade, also increasing the supply.
When supply and demand are related, that means prices stay approximately fixed. They may not be precisely fixed, but what I can say is this: Ian Kennedy, almost certainly will be worth less than 3/43 in any market–in which case he will not opt out–or more in any market–in which case he will.
I dont think you could necessarily say that this year’s clss did not see inflated prices in Free Agency….. who knows what their contracts would have been if there were other guys on the market? Would take a crystal ball.
It’s still far enough in the future for there to be a lot of uncertainty, but do we expect Price to opt out after 2018? He will be 33 years old and still have $127M on his contract for 4 more years.
And Clayton Kershaw’s back. Back injuries are not good things to have on one’s MLB resume.
What is the market clearing price for Jake Arrieta’s beard vs the Yankees no facial hair policy?
Do Kershaw and Price have opt outs after 2018 season? Otherwise they will not be free agents (second paragraph).
Yes
Kershaw would be opting out of 2/70, about. My question is, is there anything that could happen to him in 2017, short of a career-ending injury, to make him no opt out?
This makes me think Hellickson would have been wiser to choose FA this year. He might go from being the best SP this year to the tenth-best next year.
Being tied to a QO might have kept Hellickson’s offers in the range of what Volquez got. It’s possible he could get at least that much next offseason even if he stinks in 2017, and this year he gets $17M which is more than he’s made in his entire career.
Scott Boras is still laughing at that qualifying offer from the Phillies.
“Only two pitchers, Rich Hill and Edinson Volquez, have received multi-year contracts”
Charlie morton also signed a multiyear contract this offseason, FYI.
So the general point reamins, but the first paragraph becomes a bit unjustified.
thanks. fixed.
The term “opt-out,” used to refer to player options and coined by the NY media during the negotiations surrounding A-Rod’s and Sabathia’s declined player options, has created some pretty awkward writing (and reading). For example, in the header of the right-most column in the first table “Player Option” or simply “Option” would make much more sense than “Opt Out.” There are similar examples in the two paragraphs preceding that table (“…during which [player options] could loom large.” “…whose contracts feature [player options]…”}. In the paragraph following that table, the hyphen is superfluous where “[Tanaka] seems like the best bet to [opt out].” Finally, players do not “exercise their opt-outs,” they decline to exercise their player options to complete the remainder of their existing contracts. “Opt-out” is certainly a catchy and useful term but it has spread like a pox and sown confusion in its wake. Editors take note!
The top pitchers will get their money in free agency and opting out. The marginal pitchers will not get what their worth, and age will have a lot to do with it. Pitching is outlier, and most of the free agent pitchers are over paid. I would be wary of giving a pitcher like Tanaka who could need Tommy John a big contract, I think the Yanks will hope he doesn’t opt out, but if he does they won’t resign him. Instead I see them making a big move to get Otani!