2018 ZiPS Projections – St. Louis Cardinals

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the St. Louis Cardinals. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
Cardinals hitters ranked eighth in the majors by WAR this past season, and they did it in the precise way one expects Cardinals hitters to do these things: on the back of a 29-year-old center fielder who entered the season with fewer than 400 plate appearances. Also key were the contributions of a shortstop who’d played mostly third base in the minors and a first baseman who hit just 29 homers in nearly 1,500 minor-league plate appearances. Tommy Pham (532 PA, 3.3 zWAR), Paul DeJong (602, 2.1), and Matt Carpenter (573, 3.0) are all under contract for 2018 and all profile as average or better players.

The newest member of the club also appears to be the best. St. Louis was among the beneficiaries of Miami’s attempt to liquidate every possible asset, acquiring outfielder Marcell Ozuna (644, 3.7) for a modest package of prospects. ZiPS calls for him to produce what amounts to an even split between his 2016 and -17 seasons.

As for weaknesses, there are few among the club’s position-player core. One possible concern is shortstop defense (DeJong is projected for -6 runs there), although that’s also been a possible concern for the last three or seven years.

Pitchers
Only 15 pitchers reached the 200-inning threshold in 2017 — this after 38 pitchers accomplished the feat a decade earlier. That Carlos Martinez (201.0 IP, 4.4 zWAR) is projected for 200-plus innings is a testament to his durability. For this and other reasons, he’s the ace of the staff.

Beyond Martinez, the rotation is populated by a collection of strong complementary pieces, all projected for something like average production, a group that includes Miles Mikolas (148.1, 2.0), Michael Wacha (156.2, 2.2), Adam Wainwright (127.2, 1.6), and Luke Weaver (133.1, 2.1). Right-hander Alex Reyes (84.0 IP, 1.4 zWAR) is absent from the depth-chart image below, but that’s only because he’s likely to be absent from the Opening Day rotation, as well. He’s forecast to produce wins at an above-average rate once he returns.

In the bullpen, Tyler Lyons (69.2 IP, 86 ERA-, 0.9 zWAR) appears poised to earn save chances. That said, multiple other pitchers — Matt Bowman (61.0, 84, 0.9), Brett Cecil (58.0, 77, 1.1), Luke Gregerson (56.2, 79, 0.9), Samuel Tuivailala (45.0, 80, 0.7) — are forecast to record better adjusted ERA marks. All appear sufficient for high-leverage innings.

Bench/Prospects
Despite having recorded at least 350 plate appearances in each of the last three season, Randal Grichuk (518 PA, 1.9 zWAR) appears headed for a less substantial role following the acquisition of Marcell Ozuna. That more a testament to the depth of outfield options than Grichuk’s own ability. Jose Martinez (399, 1.1) is another Cardinal who lacks a clear path to playing time after earning more than 300 plate appearances in 2017.

In reality, the club is throttled by quality depth. Harrison Bader (539, 1.3), Carson Kelly (385, 1.7), Andrew Knizner (458, 1.3), Tyler O’Neill (570, 1.8), Luke Voit (491, 1.4): they all profile as useful players. Projections for newcomers Yairo Munoz (488, 0.4) and Max Schrock (529, 0.1) are available in the post for Oakland.

The pitching staff features less quantity in terms of depth but perhaps just as much quality, thanks to the presence of Jack Flaherty (151.2 IP, 2.0 zWAR), whom Dan Szymborski’s computer classified as a league-average starter already.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Cardinals, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.