2017 ZiPS Projections – Boston Red Sox by Carson Cistulli December 19, 2016 After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Boston Red Sox. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski. Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Detroit / Houston / San Diego / Tampa Bay / Toronto / Washington. Batters The presence of Mike Trout in the American League renders Mookie Betts‘ (710 PA, 5.9 zWAR) odds of ever winning an MVP award in that same league lower than if Mike Trout were not present in it. This is what’s known in the life as “baleful reality.” That said, Trout’s mere existence doesn’t alter some inalienable facts regarding Betts as a player. Like, for example, how he’s projected to record a 20-20 season in 2017. Or like, for another example, how he’s projected to save 13 runs in right field. According to ZiPS, Betts is the strongest of Boston’s field players. As for the weakest, this appears to be whatever’s happening at first base. The club recently signed Mitch Moreland (427, 0.5) to a one-year, $5.5 million deal — presumably with the intention of deploying him at first against right-handed pitching. Moreland’s forecast calls for him to hit roughly 10% worse than a league-average batter, though — which isn’t ideal at all for a club that otherwise possesses the requisite talent to win the division. Pitchers The top rotation of 2016 (in this case, belonging to the Mets) produced just over 18 wins as a group. The top rotation of 2015 (the Cubs) crossed just over the 19-win threshold. In 2014, it was the Nationals — also with about 18 wins. From this collection of three data points, one concludes that the league’s top rotation generally accumulates about 18-19 WAR. By comparison, one notes that the top-five Boston starters in 2017 are projected to record 20 wins as a group. Unsurprisingly, the addition of Chris Sale (199.2 IP, 6.2 zWAR) is largely responsible for that. Even the club’s “worst” starter, though — Eduardo Rodriguez (146.2, 2.2) — still profiles as slightly above average. As for the bullpen, the departure of Koji Uehara represents a decided net-loss for the club. Fortunately, the addition of Tyler Thornburg (60.0 IP, 0.9 zWAR) appears likely to compensate for Uehara’s absence. The right-hander is projected to record the club’s third-best park-adjusted era (71 ERA-) behind Sale (63 ERA-) and closer Craig Kimbrel (67 ERA-). Bench/Prospects It was almost certainly never the plan for Boston when they acquired him before the 2013 season that Brock Holt (463 PA, 1.1 zWAR) would receive something close to starter-type playing time over the course of three years. That’s nevertheless what happened. He’s likely to occupy a more appropriate utility role in 2017. Rusney Castillo (372, 0.8) isn’t technically a prospect, but he (a) remains employed by the Red Sox and (b) receives a more encouraging projection than basically all the club’s other bench options. Knuckleballer Steven Wright (122.0 IP, 2.0 zWAR) was, by at least one reasonable measure, Boston’s top starter over the first half of the 2016 season. He doesn’t appear to have a role in the rotation at the moment, but he represents excellent depth. ZiPS doesn’t account for the particulars of Carson Smith’s (45.1, 0.7) injury. It does account for Smith’s almost total absence in 2016, though — and has assessed the club’s fourth-best park-adjusted ERA (72 ERA-) to Smith, anyway. Depth Chart Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Red Sox, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image. Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning. Batters, Counting Stats Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS Mookie Betts R 24 RF 710 101 198 43 6 24 95 27 6 Xander Bogaerts R 24 SS 681 87 179 35 2 17 81 10 3 Jackie Bradley Jr. L 27 CF 564 71 128 30 5 18 72 8 2 Dustin Pedroia R 33 2B 580 66 153 29 1 10 56 6 4 Andrew Benintendi L 22 LF 535 62 134 31 7 12 68 13 8 Hanley Ramirez R 33 1B 533 62 132 28 1 20 86 9 3 Sandy Leon B 28 C 276 27 61 13 1 5 24 0 1 Christian Vazquez R 26 C 357 34 80 18 1 4 31 2 1 Brock Holt! L 29 3B 463 53 114 23 3 5 42 9 3 Matt Dominguez R 27 3B 543 55 127 24 0 17 68 0 0 Rusney Castillo R 29 CF 372 37 90 17 3 5 31 8 4 Chris B. Young R 33 LF 292 35 63 18 1 10 32 4 2 Jake Romanski R 26 C 315 27 74 16 0 3 27 3 3 Mitch Moreland L 31 1B 427 40 95 22 0 15 62 1 0 Pablo Sandoval B 30 3B 441 41 107 21 2 11 52 0 0 Sam Travis R 23 1B 368 38 89 20 2 9 40 8 5 Bryan Holaday R 29 C 206 20 46 11 1 3 24 1 1 Ryan Hanigan R 36 C 195 17 38 7 0 3 21 0 0 Jake DePew R 25 C 256 24 51 9 1 6 25 0 1 Dan Butler R 30 C 260 24 55 16 0 3 23 0 0 Aaron Hill R 35 2B 393 39 89 18 1 7 43 4 2 Rafael Devers L 20 3B 558 53 128 30 4 14 60 10 6 Jantzen Witte R 27 3B 418 38 94 27 2 5 38 3 3 Mike Miller R 27 2B 358 31 83 17 1 3 27 10 4 Deven Marrero R 26 SS 454 40 95 17 1 5 33 12 4 Josh Rutledge R 28 3B 287 30 63 14 2 4 23 4 2 Bryce Brentz R 28 LF 306 31 68 18 1 9 34 1 0 Junior Lake R 27 RF 377 38 78 18 2 9 36 10 5 Blake Swihart B 25 LF 342 37 78 15 3 5 30 4 2 Marco Hernandez L 24 2B 426 43 105 17 5 7 42 7 4 Cody Decker R 30 1B 400 46 78 19 2 18 56 1 1 Nate Freiman R 30 1B 359 33 77 17 2 10 41 0 1 Ali Solis R 29 C 177 12 33 5 0 2 12 0 1 Allen Craig R 32 1B 323 28 68 14 1 5 27 1 0 Chris Dominguez R 30 1B 378 39 84 18 2 13 46 7 4 Brennan Boesch L 32 LF 252 24 56 11 1 7 27 3 2 *** Batters, Rates and Averages Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA Mookie Betts 710 7.9% 12.0% .197 .321 .307 .361 .504 .378 Xander Bogaerts 681 7.0% 17.9% .144 .333 .288 .343 .432 .339 Jackie Bradley Jr. 564 9.0% 24.3% .188 .315 .255 .332 .443 .334 Dustin Pedroia 580 8.4% 11.0% .117 .314 .291 .351 .408 .334 Andrew Benintendi 535 8.2% 14.4% .168 .307 .278 .341 .446 .345 Hanley Ramirez 533 9.9% 18.8% .191 .316 .280 .358 .471 .358 Sandy Leon 276 8.0% 23.6% .121 .313 .246 .311 .367 .294 Christian Vazquez 357 6.7% 20.4% .099 .302 .245 .299 .344 .281 Brock Holt! 463 8.0% 18.4% .106 .330 .273 .335 .379 .317 Matt Dominguez 543 4.4% 17.9% .148 .276 .250 .288 .398 .293 Rusney Castillo 372 5.1% 16.9% .110 .302 .259 .302 .369 .300 Chris B. Young 292 8.9% 21.9% .192 .282 .241 .316 .433 .325 Jake Romanski 315 3.8% 17.5% .084 .295 .249 .281 .333 .270 Mitch Moreland 427 6.8% 24.1% .171 .292 .244 .304 .415 .307 Pablo Sandoval 441 6.1% 14.5% .142 .287 .264 .313 .406 .306 Sam Travis 368 7.6% 20.9% .152 .317 .266 .323 .418 .330 Bryan Holaday 206 4.4% 21.8% .116 .299 .242 .284 .358 .279 Ryan Hanigan 195 9.2% 19.5% .093 .265 .221 .304 .314 .273 Jake DePew 256 5.9% 30.5% .123 .290 .215 .260 .338 .259 Dan Butler 260 7.7% 24.2% .107 .306 .235 .301 .342 .283 Aaron Hill 393 7.4% 15.8% .115 .281 .250 .308 .365 .296 Rafael Devers 558 4.7% 24.2% .152 .300 .243 .281 .395 .297 Jantzen Witte 418 6.7% 20.1% .120 .301 .247 .304 .367 .296 Mike Miller 358 5.3% 14.5% .084 .288 .251 .294 .335 .283 Deven Marrero 454 6.4% 25.6% .081 .300 .227 .279 .308 .268 Josh Rutledge 287 6.3% 26.8% .115 .324 .241 .298 .356 .288 Bryce Brentz 306 6.2% 30.1% .166 .321 .239 .291 .405 .300 Junior Lake 377 7.7% 31.0% .143 .315 .227 .290 .370 .298 Blake Swihart 342 7.6% 23.4% .116 .320 .251 .309 .367 .296 Marco Hernandez 426 4.2% 24.2% .119 .332 .261 .292 .380 .294 Cody Decker 400 6.5% 36.0% .209 .287 .213 .268 .422 .295 Nate Freiman 359 7.0% 23.4% .157 .284 .237 .295 .394 .298 Ali Solis 177 2.8% 30.5% .065 .274 .198 .223 .263 .213 Allen Craig 323 8.4% 23.8% .107 .300 .234 .307 .341 .288 Chris Dominguez 378 3.2% 30.7% .170 .305 .234 .265 .404 .291 Brennan Boesch 252 5.6% 23.8% .145 .288 .238 .282 .383 .289 *** Batters, Assorted Other Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp Mookie Betts 710 7.4 129 13 5.9 Buddy Lewis Xander Bogaerts 681 5.7 106 -3 3.8 Troy Tulowitzki Jackie Bradley Jr. 564 5.4 105 5 3.2 Oddibe McDowell Dustin Pedroia 580 5.4 103 6 3.2 Bill Madlock Andrew Benintendi 535 5.6 109 5 2.2 John Kruk Hanley Ramirez 533 6.4 120 -4 1.8 Geronimo Berroa Sandy Leon 276 4.0 81 4 1.3 Dave Parrish Christian Vazquez 357 3.7 72 4 1.1 Nelson Santovenia Brock Holt! 463 4.8 91 -3 1.1 Ernest Riles! Matt Dominguez 543 4.1 81 3 1.1 Blair Barbier Rusney Castillo 372 4.1 79 4 0.8 Charles Thomas Chris B. Young 292 4.9 98 2 0.8 Adam Hyzdu Jake Romanski 315 3.3 64 3 0.6 Raul Chavez Mitch Moreland 427 4.5 90 4 0.5 Daryle Ward Pablo Sandoval 441 4.7 91 -6 0.5 Geoff Blum Sam Travis 368 4.9 97 1 0.4 Conor Jackson Bryan Holaday 206 3.6 71 0 0.4 Mike DiFelice Ryan Hanigan 195 3.3 67 0 0.3 Rick Ferrell Jake DePew 256 2.9 59 3 0.3 Alan Probst Dan Butler 260 3.6 72 -3 0.3 Dave Parrish Aaron Hill 393 4.1 80 -2 0.3 Keith Ginter Rafael Devers 558 3.9 79 -3 0.2 Trevor Plouffe Jantzen Witte 418 3.9 79 -2 0.2 Ryan Hankins Mike Miller 358 3.6 68 2 0.2 Alex Prieto Deven Marrero 454 3.1 57 4 0.2 Larry Klein Josh Rutledge 287 3.8 75 -1 0.1 Nick Green Bryce Brentz 306 4.2 84 0 0.0 Chris Maples Junior Lake 377 3.8 75 3 -0.1 Randy Salava Blake Swihart 342 4.1 80 1 -0.1 Roy Silver Marco Hernandez 426 4.0 78 -5 -0.1 Ronny Cedeno Cody Decker 400 3.9 81 1 -0.4 John Nelson Nate Freiman 359 4.1 83 0 -0.4 Mike Bell Ali Solis 177 1.9 30 1 -0.6 Dave Ullery Allen Craig 323 3.7 74 0 -0.6 Chris Pritchett Chris Dominguez 378 3.7 76 0 -0.8 John Cotton Brennan Boesch 252 3.8 76 -9 -1.3 Dann Howitt *** Pitchers, Counting Stats Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER Chris Sale L 28 29 29 199.7 226 40 19 171 66 62 David Price L 31 32 32 218.0 221 43 26 211 90 84 Rick Porcello R 28 30 30 195.3 159 35 22 196 82 77 Drew Pomeranz L 28 26 26 136.7 141 50 16 124 60 56 Eduardo Rodriguez L 24 27 27 146.7 125 45 19 149 72 67 Steven Wright R 32 21 18 122.0 95 42 15 125 58 54 Clay Buchholz R 32 27 20 126.7 98 40 16 133 66 62 Roenis Elias L 28 26 24 137.3 118 66 17 141 76 71 Craig Kimbrel R 29 60 0 54.7 80 25 6 40 19 18 Tyler Thornburg R 28 58 0 60.0 68 26 6 51 22 21 Brian Johnson L 26 20 20 98.0 79 45 13 104 55 51 Heath Hembree R 28 53 0 60.0 62 22 7 56 25 23 Carson Smith R 27 46 0 45.3 51 16 4 40 17 16 Joe Kelly R 29 60 0 60.3 65 25 6 56 26 24 Henry Owens L 24 29 29 151.7 136 96 21 153 90 84 Matt Barnes R 27 63 0 68.0 71 30 7 64 31 29 Robby Scott L 27 38 4 71.0 59 22 10 75 36 34 Noe Ramirez R 27 46 0 58.3 55 23 7 58 27 25 Robbie Ross L 28 46 0 51.0 47 19 6 50 24 22 Sean O’Sullivan R 29 23 23 125.3 77 40 18 147 76 71 Edgar Olmos L 27 40 1 61.7 54 28 8 63 32 30 Jacob Dahlstrand R 25 12 7 49.7 29 19 7 59 30 28 Ben Taylor R 24 35 0 40.0 35 17 5 43 20 19 Chandler Shepherd R 24 40 0 62.3 53 19 8 65 32 30 Kyle Martin R 26 35 0 62.7 59 23 9 65 33 31 Brandon Workman R 28 17 10 65.0 49 28 9 74 41 38 Mitch Atkins R 31 25 18 110.3 85 44 19 126 70 65 Roman Mendez R 26 43 0 58.3 48 27 8 61 32 30 Luis Ysla L 25 35 8 75.3 64 46 12 82 48 45 Williams Jerez L 25 35 0 64.0 54 33 9 68 37 35 Jalen Beeks L 23 25 25 124.3 82 50 24 148 83 78 *** Pitchers, Rates and Averages Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP- Chris Sale 199.7 810 27.9% 4.9% .297 2.79 2.88 63 69 David Price 218.0 908 24.3% 4.7% .302 3.47 3.29 79 79 Rick Porcello 195.3 817 19.5% 4.3% .294 3.55 3.62 80 87 Drew Pomeranz 136.7 584 24.1% 8.6% .288 3.69 3.66 84 88 Eduardo Rodriguez 146.7 634 19.7% 7.1% .295 4.11 4.09 93 98 Steven Wright 122.0 533 17.8% 7.9% .293 3.98 4.30 90 103 Clay Buchholz 126.7 553 17.7% 7.2% .298 4.41 4.27 100 102 Roenis Elias 137.3 619 19.1% 10.7% .303 4.65 4.57 105 110 Craig Kimbrel 54.7 229 34.9% 10.9% .295 2.96 3.14 67 75 Tyler Thornburg 60.0 257 26.5% 10.1% .290 3.15 3.49 71 84 Brian Johnson 98.0 443 17.8% 10.2% .302 4.68 4.75 106 114 Heath Hembree 60.0 258 24.0% 8.5% .297 3.45 3.66 78 88 Carson Smith 45.3 192 26.6% 8.3% .308 3.18 3.19 72 77 Joe Kelly 60.3 262 24.8% 9.5% .307 3.58 3.64 81 87 Henry Owens 151.7 704 19.3% 13.6% .298 4.98 5.15 113 124 Matt Barnes 68.0 298 23.8% 10.1% .305 3.84 3.77 87 90 Robby Scott 71.0 310 19.0% 7.1% .301 4.31 4.33 98 104 Noe Ramirez 58.3 256 21.5% 9.0% .306 3.86 4.12 87 99 Robbie Ross 51.0 222 21.2% 8.6% .303 3.88 4.15 88 100 Sean O’Sullivan 125.3 563 13.7% 7.1% .306 5.10 4.85 115 116 Edgar Olmos 61.7 276 19.6% 10.1% .300 4.38 4.50 99 108 Jacob Dahlstrand 49.7 227 12.8% 8.4% .308 5.07 5.10 115 122 Ben Taylor 40.0 180 19.4% 9.4% .314 4.27 4.41 97 106 Chandler Shepherd 62.3 271 19.6% 7.0% .303 4.33 4.09 98 98 Kyle Martin 62.7 276 21.4% 8.3% .308 4.45 4.29 101 103 Brandon Workman 65.0 297 16.5% 9.4% .313 5.26 4.83 119 116 Mitch Atkins 110.3 501 17.0% 8.8% .309 5.30 5.19 120 125 Roman Mendez 58.3 263 18.3% 10.3% .300 4.63 4.74 105 114 Luis Ysla 75.3 354 18.1% 13.0% .309 5.38 5.51 122 132 Williams Jerez 64.0 293 18.4% 11.3% .306 4.92 4.93 111 118 Jalen Beeks 124.3 571 14.4% 8.8% .305 5.65 5.70 128 137 *** Pitchers, Assorted Other Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp Chris Sale 199.7 10.19 1.80 0.86 151 6.2 C.C. Sabathia David Price 218.0 9.12 1.78 1.07 122 5.0 Frank Viola Rick Porcello 195.3 7.33 1.61 1.01 119 4.3 Brad Radke Drew Pomeranz 136.7 9.28 3.29 1.05 114 2.7 Bob Ojeda Eduardo Rodriguez 146.7 7.67 2.76 1.17 103 2.2 Jarrod Washburn Steven Wright 122.0 7.01 3.10 1.11 106 2.0 Scott Kamieniecki Clay Buchholz 126.7 6.96 2.84 1.14 96 1.3 Kirk McCaskill Roenis Elias 137.3 7.73 4.33 1.11 91 1.1 Damian Moss Craig Kimbrel 54.7 13.16 4.11 0.99 142 1.0 Ryne Duren Tyler Thornburg 60.0 10.20 3.90 0.90 134 0.9 Rich Garces Brian Johnson 98.0 7.26 4.13 1.19 90 0.8 Kelly Wunsch Heath Hembree 60.0 9.30 3.30 1.05 122 0.7 Danny Kolb Carson Smith 45.3 10.13 3.18 0.79 133 0.7 Francisco Cordero Joe Kelly 60.3 9.70 3.73 0.90 118 0.6 Bryce Florie Henry Owens 151.7 8.07 5.70 1.25 85 0.6 Brian O’Connor Matt Barnes 68.0 9.40 3.97 0.93 110 0.5 Todd Wellemeyer Robby Scott 71.0 7.48 2.79 1.27 98 0.4 Renay Bryand Noe Ramirez 58.3 8.49 3.55 1.08 109 0.4 Heathcliff Slocumb Robbie Ross 51.0 8.29 3.35 1.06 109 0.3 Tom Martin Sean O’Sullivan 125.3 5.53 2.87 1.29 83 0.3 Ricardo Rodriguez Edgar Olmos 61.7 7.88 4.08 1.17 96 0.1 Scott Wiegandt Jacob Dahlstrand 49.7 5.25 3.44 1.27 83 0.1 William Cooper Ben Taylor 40.0 7.88 3.83 1.13 99 0.1 Nick DeBarr Chandler Shepherd 62.3 7.66 2.74 1.16 97 0.1 Larry Gura Kyle Martin 62.7 8.47 3.30 1.29 95 0.0 Josh Perrault Brandon Workman 65.0 6.78 3.88 1.25 80 0.0 Rafael Lopez Mitch Atkins 110.3 6.94 3.59 1.55 80 -0.1 Nerio Rodriguez Roman Mendez 58.3 7.41 4.17 1.23 91 -0.2 Mike Zimmerman Luis Ysla 75.3 7.65 5.50 1.43 78 -0.4 Paulino Reynoso Williams Jerez 64.0 7.59 4.64 1.27 86 -0.4 Jason Hill Jalen Beeks 124.3 5.94 3.62 1.74 75 -0.5 Doug Lindsey *** Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.” Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.