2017 ZiPS Projections – Boston Red Sox

After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Boston Red Sox. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Detroit / Houston / San Diego / Tampa Bay / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
The presence of Mike Trout in the American League renders Mookie Betts‘ (710 PA, 5.9 zWAR) odds of ever winning an MVP award in that same league lower than if Mike Trout were not present in it. This is what’s known in the life as “baleful reality.” That said, Trout’s mere existence doesn’t alter some inalienable facts regarding Betts as a player. Like, for example, how he’s projected to record a 20-20 season in 2017. Or like, for another example, how he’s projected to save 13 runs in right field.

According to ZiPS, Betts is the strongest of Boston’s field players. As for the weakest, this appears to be whatever’s happening at first base. The club recently signed Mitch Moreland (427, 0.5) to a one-year, $5.5 million deal — presumably with the intention of deploying him at first against right-handed pitching. Moreland’s forecast calls for him to hit roughly 10% worse than a league-average batter, though — which isn’t ideal at all for a club that otherwise possesses the requisite talent to win the division.

Pitchers
The top rotation of 2016 (in this case, belonging to the Mets) produced just over 18 wins as a group. The top rotation of 2015 (the Cubs) crossed just over the 19-win threshold. In 2014, it was the Nationals — also with about 18 wins. From this collection of three data points, one concludes that the league’s top rotation generally accumulates about 18-19 WAR. By comparison, one notes that the top-five Boston starters in 2017 are projected to record 20 wins as a group. Unsurprisingly, the addition of Chris Sale (199.2 IP, 6.2 zWAR) is largely responsible for that. Even the club’s “worst” starter, though — Eduardo Rodriguez (146.2, 2.2) — still profiles as slightly above average.

As for the bullpen, the departure of Koji Uehara represents a decided net-loss for the club. Fortunately, the addition of Tyler Thornburg (60.0 IP, 0.9 zWAR) appears likely to compensate for Uehara’s absence. The right-hander is projected to record the club’s third-best park-adjusted era (71 ERA-) behind Sale (63 ERA-) and closer Craig Kimbrel (67 ERA-).

Bench/Prospects
It was almost certainly never the plan for Boston when they acquired him before the 2013 season that Brock Holt (463 PA, 1.1 zWAR) would receive something close to starter-type playing time over the course of three years. That’s nevertheless what happened. He’s likely to occupy a more appropriate utility role in 2017. Rusney Castillo (372, 0.8) isn’t technically a prospect, but he (a) remains employed by the Red Sox and (b) receives a more encouraging projection than basically all the club’s other bench options.

Knuckleballer Steven Wright (122.0 IP, 2.0 zWAR) was, by at least one reasonable measure, Boston’s top starter over the first half of the 2016 season. He doesn’t appear to have a role in the rotation at the moment, but he represents excellent depth. ZiPS doesn’t account for the particulars of Carson Smith’s (45.1, 0.7) injury. It does account for Smith’s almost total absence in 2016, though — and has assessed the club’s fourth-best park-adjusted ERA (72 ERA-) to Smith, anyway.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Red Sox, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.