2017 ZiPS Projections – Arizona Diamondbacks

After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Chicago NL / San Diego / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
Not unlike a glass that’s simultaneously half full and half empty, the Diamondbacks — on the position-player side of things, at least — serve as an effective litmus test for optimism. There are real strengths in the projected starting lineup — strengths like Paul Goldschmidt (630 PA, 4.8 zWAR), Jake Lamb (517, 2.4), and A.J. Pollock (445, 3.5). There are also real weaknesses, too, in the form of Brandon Drury (581, 0.0), Yasmany Tomas (524, 0.5), and whoever’s tasked with playing catcher.

The optimist regards this as a club that can be easily upgraded: because the flaws are so obvious, they can be dramatically improved with only a modest investment of resources. The pessimist, on the other hand, is uncomfortable with relying so heavily on the ability of just a few players. If one of them were to get injured (as Pollock did in 2016), the club would suffer unduly (as the D-backs did in 2016).

Pitchers
Much of Arizona’s starting rotation underperformed expectations in one form or another last year. Zack Greinke (172.1 IP, 3.6 zWAR) failed to meet his previously established levels. Robbie Ray (176.1, 3.4) produced considerably better fielding-independent numbers than actual run-prevention ones. And Shelby Miller (167.1, 2.3) fell into a thousand pieces. Dan Szymborski’s computer calls for positive regression in each case. In fact, every starter in the D-backs’ rotation is projected to produce more wins in 2017 than 2016.

In the bullpen, Arizona features a number of competent pieces but no obvious relief ace. Left-hander Andrew Chafin (65.0 IP, 82 ERA-) and right-hander Silvino Bracho (64.0 IP, 87 ERA-) actually receive the top per-inning projections from ZiPS, although neither is likely to record the highest-leverage appearances for the club — at least not to begin the season.

Bench/Prospects
Arizona features a robust collection of serviceable middle-infield talent. Nick Ahmed (424 PA, 1.3 zWAR) earned a number of starts at shortstop last year, and there’s a case to be made that recently acquired Ketel Marte (561, 1.9) deserves a number of them this coming year, at second if not short. Dawel Lugo (543, 0.9) and Ildemaro Vargas (520, 0.9), meanwhile, both profile as competent bench players already.

Among pitching prospects, the club features a promising one in left-hander Anthony Banda (141.2 IP, 1.5 zWAR). Ranked first among D-backs prospects already by Eric Longenhagen this offseason, Banda’s projection suggests he could also provide some reasonably useful innings as a major leaguer starting immediately.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the D-backs, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.