Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 12/5/16

Dan Szymborski: Hail to whatever you found in the sunlight that surrounds you this Monday morning: The Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat.

Roadhog: Braves found the price of Gray “too high.” After Sale is off the board somewhere else, do they bite the bullet?

Dan Szymborski: I suspect no. I don’t think Atlanta’s feeling is that the rebuild is *quite* as far along as they express to the public.

Dan Szymborski: A’s should have traded Gray last winter. Not really a fan of Oakland’s front office these days.

Bork: Has EE priced himself out of a contract? It seems like all his possible suitors are bowing out one by one with cheaper alternatives.

Dan Szymborski: It’s possible that he’s hurt his negotiating position, but there are still teams that are going to want him.

Big Joe Mufferaw: Fan of the Matt Holliday signing?

Dan Szymborski: Not really all that big in the big picture. Probably a few million extra from what he really ought to have given his age and recent history, but the Yankees haven’t gone mega-thrift.

Julio Pepper: This Steve Pearce signing seems completely outrageous. He’s basically a 2 WAR/120+ hitter who can play 2B. What does ZIPs think of this?

Dan Szymborski: It’s a really good signing for the Jays.

CarrotJuice: Melancon might sign with the Giants during this very chat! If he does, will you give us, your loyal chat viewers, a first look at the ZiPS breakdown of his contract?

Dan Szymborski: perhaps.

Ed in Iowa: I’m confused about Otani… Should we assume from his (and his team’s) statement about coming to the US next year that there must be an Otani-shaped loophole in the new CBA language regarding International signings?

Dan Szymborski: The issue is that there is some CBA language that now clashes with MLB’s agreement with NPB. Or at least that’s my impression.

Guest: Should the Bluejays think about trading J.A Happ? his value is as high as it’ll get and he won’t be getting any better

Dan Szymborski: I think as long as they’re seriously competitive, it makes sense to hang onto him, but if the Blue Jays throw in the towel in 2017, Happ should be the first to go and quickly.

HS: Loved seeing you on Value town last week, any chance you will do some HS streams in the future? Would love to see it.

Dan Szymborski: I’ve done occasional ones, the problem is that my schedule is such that streams won’t be regular.

Seven Costanza: How are super-high BABIP guys handled in ZiPS? Saw that Goldschmidt was projected at .341. Trout, Votto, and Marte also come to mind as high BABIP guys. Does the system give more credence to high BABIP as a skill as the sample increases (ex: Votto @ .357 BABIP in over 5k PA), or does age tend to suppress more than track record inflates? (I feel like I worded this poorly.)

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS uses an xBABIP-like measure to estimate future $H, but the longer a player over or underperforms what one would expect, the more credence ZiPS gives to it.

Dan Szymborski: Same goes for pitchers. ZiPS would be a lot more willing to believe Tom Glavine was a $H-overperformer in 2000 than it would be in 1992.

Ned Yost: Put together the framework of a Danny Duffy trade

Dan Szymborski: I hate theoretical trades, but

Dan Szymborski: How about Duffy to Houston for Paulino, Hernandez, and maybe a lower ranked pitcher with upside like Guduan?

John: Pretend you’re AJ Preller… make a starting five appear out of thin air.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they can! I’m not magical. Padres aren’t about 2017.

Hoss: Has Houston given up somewhat on AJ Reed? They seem to be stocking their roster as if they aren’t expecting anything from him in 2017.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they’ve given up on him, but they’re a competitive team now and it makes sense to be more interested in high floors right now.

CarrotJuice: Bud Selig getting into the HOF is like Dave Stewart winning executive of the year.

Dan Szymborski: Bud Selig wasn’t as bad as commish as Stewart was an executive.

Dan Szymborski: I think that would be more Bowie Kuhn.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Do the Rays and Braves/Astros actually match up for an Archer deal, or are all teams looking for the other to make an offer they just can’t pass up?

Dan Szymborski: I think Astros line up better really.

The Decadent Moose:

Von Schloss: Are you going to play FF XV?

Dan Szymborski: At some point! I don’t have a PS4 yet, so I’m kinda waiting to see for hints of a PC port.

Tony: Would you consider trading rosaio and Don smith as a package for abreu and eaton? That would allow you to trade Duda/Bruce/conforto for relievers and prospects

Dan Szymborski: YOu’d have to go farther than that. The White Sox ask just for Sale is a lot.

The Decadent Moose: What did ZiPS say for Rich Hill? That a good contract based on his career?

Dan Szymborski: The numbers floating around are fairly reasonable – it’s hard to get pitching and he really was quite good.

Coppy: We’re only in on Sale to jack up the price for the Nationals, right? If we really wanted him, what would a package not including Swanson even look like?
Is Albies + Newcomb/Allard + Adonis Garcis + Rio Ruiz + a million other insignificant throw-ins enough?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t think Garcia would hold much interest for White Sox, though again, Avi wasn’t cut.

Dan Szymborski: Without swanson, I t hink you likely have to go Albie+Newcomb or Allard + more.

Dan Szymborski: The Sox are really hard to gauge, simply because we still don’t *know* how serious they are.

greg: If you’re Daniels, what do you offer for Billy Hamilton?

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I think the Reds aren’t at the point where they would trade him unless they were bowled over by an offer.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they can just throw Connor Sadzeck or an equivalent name out there and get the Reds to bite

Pearced: Do you have zips for Pearce in TO?

Dan Szymborski: On Twitter.

MD: In such a weak pitching market, what targets could the Yanks find on the trade front that could be buy low and fit their current trend of acquisitions?

Dan Szymborski: The problem is that the trends in the market really point against the availability of buy low signings for desirable pitchers.

Dan Szymborski: Certainly not someone better than Eovaldi, who they could have had for just money.

CamdenWarehouse: How am I supposed to learn anything about pitcher quality if you won’t include wins in ZiPS?

Dan Szymborski: heh

CamdenWarehouse: Taijuan’s number one comp is Ponson. That’s rough, man.

anonymous: “Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 12/5/16… by Carson Cistulli” I reject this ridiculous premise

Dan Szymborski: The post announcing the Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat is by Carson Cistulli.

Dan Szymborski: Kinda like how Beane didn’t write Moneyball.

Chaps: If the Astros can’t land Sale/Archer, do you think they try to pursue Hill, trade for a middle-of-the-rotation kind of pitcher, or stay put and trust their farm system?

Dan Szymborski: Hill would probably be off the table by that point.

Dan Szymborski: And they’ll explore trades in the event they can’t land any of the first three names, but I don’t think there’s anyone else that they’d really *have to* have.

CamdenWarehouse: Do the non-tenders of Ross and Castillo make sense to you?

Dan Szymborski: Beef Welington, no.

Dan Szymborski: Ross is tricky. As has been noted, there’s a giant difference between Steamer and ZiPS projection for him, Steamer has him at 3.5 WAR, ZiPS 1.2.

Dan Szymborski: I’m guessing the Padres are more on the ZiPS side of this one, else they never would have non-tendered him.

Matt: Lets get EE in Colorado somehow. That lineup!!!

Dan Szymborski: I’d love the Rockies to sign Encarnacion *and* Trumbo and watch the confusion as they can’t understand when they’re 78-84.

Steve: That Steve Pierce contract seems like a pretty good bargain doesn’t it?

Dan Szymborski: Pearce’s deal is a good one.

5 Run Homer: Where does Bautista land?

Dan Szymborski: He’s in a tricky position given that the market actually has corner outfield DH tyeps.

Dan Szymborski: Would love to see him in Baltimore with Pearce off the table.

Von Schloss: Do you see the White Sox going full fire sale?

Dan Szymborski: No

CamdenWarehouse: The MLBPA is looking pretty weak right now isn’t it?

Dan Szymborski: It’s been for a while. The current players are still living off the bounty that the players planted in the 70s-90s.

Dan Szymborski: The MLBPA has been fractured when it comes to drug policy.

Dan Szymborski: (The owners don’t actually really care about PEDs, but it was a great opportunity to divide the union)

Dan Szymborski: And if Miller/Fehr were in charge, they *never* would have agreed to that domestic abuse policy. Not that they wouldn’t agree to one, but make the commissioner the sole authority, with no maximum penalty? Not a chance.

Dan Szymborski: Having an arbitration appeal is a poor check on giving the commissioner unlimited authority.

bridlemile: Would one year of Seattle reliever Steve Cishek at $6 million be enough to land two years of Dodger lefthander Scott Kazmir if the Mariners took on all the $32 million remaining on Kazmir’s contract? Cishek may miss the start of the 2017 season after undergoing labrum surgery on his hip.

Dan Szymborski: While it *might* be, I’m not sure that the money is more useful to the Dodgers than having Kazmir. The market is not good and they may rather have depth.

LPS: Do the White Sox feel good about Tim Anderson as their shortstop of the present and future or are they thinking of a different position for him this year or next?

Dan Szymborski: Nah, they’re definitely playing him at short until otherwise.

Dan Szymborski: errr, until/unless he shows otherwsie

Nick: Fill in the blank – the Royals 2017 DH is _______.

Dan Szymborski: a basket of farts and sadness.

CamdenWarehouse: So PED players aren’t allowed in the HOF, but the PED commissioner is?

Dan Szymborski: And Bowie Kuhn is in there and he’s the biggest reason there wasn’t a drug policy.

Dan Szymborski: MLB and MLBPA *did* agree to testing back in the early 80s until Kuhn announced that anything not specifically outlined would be under his sole authority.

Dan Szymborski: Which ended and desire of MLBPA to cooperate with MLB.

Jeb: Why isn’t Patrick Corbin included in Arizona’s ZIPS readout? Do you know something we don’t?

DID YOU KILL PATRICK CORBIN?

Dan Szymborski: Wait, he’s not on? I’ll have to correct that.

CarrotJuice: Will the luxury tax act as a de facto salary cap?

Dan Szymborski: It tends to function as a soft cap and will continue to.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: I’ve seen a few HOF voters comment that now that Selig is in, they will vote for PED users and suspects. Thoughts?

Dan Szymborski: Might as well.

Erik: Have you read Jeff Passan’s article about how this CBA laid the groundwork for a likely strike in 2021? On the one hand that seems a bit extreme, but on the other, he knows what he’s talking about and makes some compelling points m

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t read it yet, but Passan is typically very good.

Dan Szymborski: I’m skeptical about how united the MLBPA is.

anonymous: Have the Astros won the offseason?

Dan Szymborski: We’re a bit too soon

Go Bucks: Is Joey Votto on his way to the Hall of Fame in your opinion?

Dan Szymborski: On a merit level, yes, but the BBWAA voting is not very good

Dan Szymborski: *Bagwell’s* not in, after all.

CamdenWarehouse: Does it seem like the Mets are being realistic in their asking price for Gandersond and Bruce? Might they end up with Conforto out of the lineup again?

Dan Szymborski: Maybe not, yes.

Hank: Is Dansby Swanson more valuable now than when he was traded by the Dbacks?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

A. Reitz: Why are people acting like the Braves are serious contenders for Sale? And if they are, what’s the point? You trade your farm for Sale and you’re not better than the White Sox have been the last couple years. Probably worse.

Dan Szymborski: Atlanta’s expressed an interest, that they’re contenders is a bit independent of the notion of whether they shouldn’t!

Just the Fip: what are the most likely landing spots for Napoli and Edwin at this point?

Dan Szymborski: Still think Napoli back to Indians is most likely. Whether they should is a different matter – Napoli wans’t really all that great in 2016.

Dan Szymborski: I still can’t help but think that EE’s price comes down and he ends up with the Red Sox. Just a hunch, but I feel the Red Sox have been a bit too excited about leaking their non-interest.

Bork: Square mentioned that what they’d like to do is build the ff15 port from the ground up for pc (like gta5), but time will tell if they actually do it.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I saw, so I’m waiting.

Mike M: Is Tyson Ross done? Or a great candidate for reclamation project?

Dan Szymborski: Worth a pillow deal.

Erik: Do you think the players agreeing to their first ever hard cap on anything (international spending) sets a dangerous precedent that will lead the league on an inexorable march towards a salary cap, as some have suggested? Or is it just an inconsequential method of solving a specific and relatively unimportant issue?

Dan Szymborski: The MLBPA’s done such a poor job in recent years that player salaries are actually significantly lower than they would have been under the 1994 owner-proposed cap formula.

anonymous: USA won Capcom Cup! No question. Just excited we’re #1 at something esports-adjacent

Tom A.: If you are the Cubs, does it make sense to sell? They are so deep that MLB acquisitions have diminishing returns. Would be better to build the war chest for future or as ammunition to fill needs in case of injury/underperformance.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think so. There’s no urgency to reducing their depth, you don’t know what the future will bring and it’s not like the farm system is empty.

Fat Kenny G: Just bought OOTP 2017 yesterday for a buck. Have you played it recently? Any tips for a beginner?

Dan Szymborski: It’s a good game. No real specific tips, you gotta figure that out on your own!

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Who will have the least interesting offseason? Someone like the Padres, Brewers, or Reds, teams that have initiated rebuilding sequences, have jettisoned most of their present value assets, and are content just taking wild card fliers and letting their youngsters take their hacks?

Dan Szymborski: I think O’s will be pretty boring overall.

Julio Pepper: Why one earth would the Braves trade Albies+ for Chris Sale? This is like the opposite of what they should be doing.

Dan Szymborski: The Braves are tricky as they’ve sent a lot of mixed signals in the last couple of months – gauging where they actually think they are in the rebuild, as opposed to what they leak and what they outright say in public, is very difficult.

Gary: Jarrod Dyson = Underheralded Billy Hamilton?

Dan Szymborski: Yup

Zihuatenejo: Who do you expect to get the most ABs at second for the Dodgers in 2017?

Dan Szymborski: With Turner now looking likely to re-sign (at last check), the odds that Kiké is the best bet over any individual other in the field.

Big Joe Mufferaw: Who is your favorite non-ace pitcher to watch ever?

Dan Szymborski: Wakefield. I love knucklers.

Chachi: I just want to mention the mixed feelings I have in that I’m excited for ZiPS projections but am dreading the upcoming months of following you on twitter and having your self-satisfied musings appearing on my timeline.

Dan Szymborski: There *is* an unfollow button, guy.

Mike M: It seems like a lot of the FG guys are down on Soler. He had a very strong second half despite battling injuries and is still very young. Why isn’t there more optimism?

Dan Szymborski: Because he hasn’t been healthy *and* good yet.

Dan Szymborski: Soler being a really good player now depends on some really old minor league data.

Zihuatenejo: Are ZIPS’ player comps age-to-date, a specific season, or ?

Dan Szymborski: near-age recent seasons.

Erik: I’ve never enjoyed statcast info half as much as I think a sabremetrically-inclined fan is supposed to. Metrics like wRC+ manage to take basic box score data and turn it into something intuitive and easy to use in a way which you could almost describe as beautiful. Statcast, in comparison, seems almost ham-fisted: “He hit the ball real good.” Do you feel the same way, or can you show me how to like those stats the way I am supposed to?

Dan Szymborski: What you’re describing is the fact that we’re still very early into the statcast era.

Dan Szymborski: The fact is we’re still making sense of the flood of new data, to the extent that we’re still not really sure what different things MEAN.

Dan Szymborski: So a lot of the time, it’s cool, but we’re still working on it being meaningful

mtsw: Steve Pearce is the top name in the Fangraphs search box right now. Does this unseat Trump’s election as 2016’s biggest upset?

Dan Szymborski: It just reflects that he was *just* signed.

Matt: Hi Dan. Sorry I’m Late. I’ll try to be more punctual next week.

Dan Szymborski: You’ll have to stay after and clap erasers.

mcmadbat: is shohei otani a top 30 SP right now?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Colin: Do you think having a rule that only allowed a limited amount of stoppages per inning for mound visits AND pitching changes speed up the game? I think it’d make for some interesting strategy decisions at least.

Dan Szymborski: While from an aesthetic level, I like the idea.

Dan Szymborski: *But*

Dan Szymborski: MLB has been very careful historically about keeping additional rules out of the game.

Dan Szymborski: The basic rules of play are very rarely changed in baseball.

powder: “Arizona Non-Tendered Beef” just sounds distasteful.

TKDC: Assuming Otani is a free agent after 2017, what do you see him getting?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll get $150 million.

powder: Does Jae Gyun Hwang make sense as a 2B for teams?

Dan Szymborski: I think MLB teams should generally be more aggressive at signing KBO/NPB players of secondary quality as depth signings.

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS translated him at 252/298/407 in 2016, which would make him role player ish

Erik: Which off-season move so far is most typical of the team who made it?

Dan Szymborski: Think we’re too soon for that.

Matt: When you say you’d love to see Bautista in BAL, you mean that strictly about his baseball production, right? I mean, the guy’s a major doucher.

Dan Szymborski: Yes, his production.

Outta my way, Gyorkass: What’s your preferred Skyrim character type – big, skullbashing Redguard/Orc/Nord, magic-proficient elf race, or Argonian/Khajiit thief type?

Dan Szymborski: My favorite build ever was a conjuring archer.

Dan Szymborski: Hit and run arrows, with my follower and various familiars taking all the heat.

Scott: Would it make sense for the Marlins to blow it up? With Loria involved I honestly never know what they’re going to do.

Dan Szymborski: It probably would, but the Marlins like to alternate between foolish overspending and foolish underspending.

Big Joe Mufferaw: How much more would Otani be worth to an NL team than an AL team?

Dan Szymborski: I think a lot. The offense he could bring over an average pitcher far exceeds the offense he could bring over an average DH

Dan Szymborski: Wes Ferrell was like a 13 WAR hitter and the Indians only briefly played him in the outfield to try to squeeze more offense out of him

Aaron: Can you retroactively run zips for historic seasons? Like what was Babe Ruth’s projection for 1927?

Dan Szymborski: I can and sometimes do some whatiffs

John : The five franchises with the bleakest five year outlook are…

Dan Szymborski: Hmm

Dan Szymborski: Royals given the post-2017 issues. Angels. White Sox.

Dan Szymborski: Rockies are poorly run at the major league level, but they have so much young talent that they could be decent despite their owner/front office best efforts.

Dan Szymborski: Padres have a ways to go

Dan Szymborski: And I think the Reds didn’t get anywhere near as much from their initial rebuild moves as htey shoudl have

Dan Szymborski: And Marlins

Dan Szymborski: oops that’s 6

The Decadent Moose: So, Jerry admits there’s no one who is a sure-thing, but wants 4 in return for Sale. Failing In Quantity, the White Sox credo.

Towel: I think you’re overly harsh on the A’s FO for paying 4 million dollars from a player one year removed from 1.1 WAR. Especially since it’s just a bridge to Matt Chapman.

Dan Szymborski: But that’s not the point.

Dan Szymborski: The A’s are a bad team – they shouldn’t be paying a *fair* price for someone like a mediocrity like Yonder Alonso.

Dan Szymborski: The benefit of having a bad team is that you *try* new things that aren’t likely to succeed, but could.

Dan Szymborski: Alonso’s 30 next year and a mediocrity for a long time. Paying him a fair price is pointless for a bad team that shoudl be looking for lotto tickets.

Dan Szymborski: Trying to find the Adam Duvall-types is far more constructive.

Dan Szymborski: A worse player than Yonder Alonso with a 5% chance of being a good player for six years with the A’s is far more constructive a use of a position-season than Yonder Alonso.

CamdenWarehouse: Can’t we just stop with the idea of winning the offseason? There is nothing to win in the offseason.

The Decadent Moose: Dan Szymborski
12:29 a basket of farts and sadness.

Farts and sadness just don’t go together. No one is crying over this hippo. There is actually quite a bit of laughter.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PSKQ3ZNQ_O8

CarrotJuice: How about Robbie Ray’s top comp being Cliff Lee?

Dan Szymborski: Note the ages.

Just the Fip: Will pablo sandoval actually play this year? Do you think the sox stick with pablo, shaw, and hanley? I feel like their plan is too bring moncada up at some point this season but you cant just put pablo on the fake DL forever…

Dan Szymborski: I think Sandoval will play.

anonymous: (The $1 OOTP17 is here for those interested: https://www.humblebundle.com )

Kevin: Would Edwin Diaz net the M’s somebody in the Odorizzi ilk? A mid rotation, semi-controllable SP?

Dan Szymborski: That’s a big aggressive a return for Diaz.

I love Majestic: Dan, the reports say that Under Armor’s logo will appear on the front of the uniforms in 2020. Do you think this will be a small logo barely visible on TV (like a Polo shirt logo) or large and loud? Color me scared.

Dan Szymborski: Beats me!

Bob: Interview with an MLB team today: any advice as I slowly die of anxiety in my hotel room

Dan Szymborski: Don’t die? The only thing a corpse can do in baseball is play better defense than Matt Kemp.

jon: Nationals with Cutch and Sale better or worse than the Cubs ZiPS?

Dan Szymborski: It may be close.

Julio Pepper: WHAT?? (re: Otani) Tanaka got $155m with an opt out, and by all accounts Otani is much better than him. Between youth and the fact that he can hit, you don’t think he pushes $250-300?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think teams are ready to be *that* aggressive. ZiPS will project him to get more than he will, I think.

Mike M: Re: Soler – he’s managed to cut his K rate, raise his BB rate and saw a power spike more in line with how he was projected last season. He had a 129 wrc+ in the second half. That should warrant some attention, no?

Dan Szymborski: Everybody looks great when you only count the parts that look good.

976: Tell the guy who bought OOTP 2017 to join our DMB league instead. Find us at LWNNSIM.com

EbenezerBatflip: Any chance at all the Red Sox could move their big contracts like Pablo or Rusney Castillo?

Dan Szymborski: Not really without eating a ton

Matt: Obviously, there are degrees of freedom, but would the White Sox making a Sale trade (and accepting where the trade market seems to value him over their own valuation) help to remove them from the “bleakest 5 year outlook”?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think so, for the simple reason that I suspect it wouldn’t be part of a whole rebuild, but a sui generis transaction

Jeff: What about the Orioles? Their Farm system is one of the weakest, They have no pitching, Manny Machado is a free agent in a couple of years, + Chris Davis bloated contract + Peter Angelos. They’re screwed!!

Dan Szymborski: I think they have a couple years of OK-ness.

Dan Szymborski: If you move the window to 2018-2022 or 2019-2023, O’s look much worse

Ned Yost: 4/62 for Melancon from Giants

Andrew: Sherman says Melancon is for 4/$62-ish. Thoughts?

Dan Szymborski: Pricier than I would go. Giants have a reason to overpay — marginal wins where they are are super valuable — but I’m not sure you get enough wins from most closers to make this good enough

Matt: Regarding UA logo – they’re not going to implement anything that is going to drastically affect the team’s logos. It will likely be in the ilk of the small New Era logo on the side of a hat – either on the sleeve, or top of the neck area.

John: Hill to the Dodgers!

Matt: Melancon at $62/4 means that Chapman is going to get more than $20MM AAV, eh?

Dan Szymborski: I suspect so.

Dan Szymborski: Using LI for closers, ZiPS had Chapman at just under $19 million AAV, but I think this makes it go up (had Melancon at a hair under $14 million per over two years)

Monsignor Martinez: Lightning Round: What’s the farthest you have ever gone in strip poker?

Dan Szymborski: Never played.

Dan Szymborski: If I did, people would fold hands in order to keep me fully clothed.

Dan Szymborski: And on that note, it’s time for me to leave as I have another appointment.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone! As a reminder, you can find my work at ESPN.com, chats and projections here at FanGraphs, and DSzymborski on Twitter.

Dan Szymborski: Though, as noted above, Twitter involves my self-satisfied tweets infecting your timeline.

Dan Szymborski: Cya guys!