2017 ZiPS Projections – Chicago White Sox by Carson Cistulli January 4, 2017 After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Chicago White Sox. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski. Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Boston / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / New York AL / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Toronto / Washington. Batters The White Sox have dealt two of their best players this offseason, and reports indicate that at least one more trade is likely. As a result, these ZiPS projections serve not only as a preview for the 2017 edition of the club but also as an instrument to better evaluate trade value. Corner infielders Jose Abreu (652 PA, 2.9 zWAR) and Todd Frazier (634 PA, 3.4 zWAR) would appear to be most appealing in this regard. Both receive above-average win projections (the top-two figures among Chicago field players) while also featuring contracts that compensate them at something less than market rate. Among those members of the team who are almost certain to return in 2017, shortstop Tim Anderson (586, 2.2) earns the top forecast. ZiPS offers little encouragement regarding Anderson’s plate discipline — calling for a walk and strikeout rate of 2.7% and 27.8%, respectively — but projects sufficiently strong batted-ball skill (.348 BABIP) and defense (+4 runs at short) to render Anderson a solidly average player. Pitchers Whether one measures his performance by FIP or runs allowed, left-hander Jose Quintana (189.0 IP, 3.9 zWAR) has averaged roughly five wins per season over the last three years — a remarkable and improbable outcome, that, for a pitcher who was acquired as a minor-league free agent and possesses merely decent velocity. Szymborski’s model suggests that Quintana might fail to reach the five-win mark in 2017. Nevertheless, he’s wildly undercompensated relative to his skill level. Owed roughly $35 million over the next four years (including two club options), he could produce the equivalent of that in wins by the end of 2017. One note about this White Sox team: for whatever their weaknesses entering the 2016-17 offseason, the club’s collection of starting pitchers really wasn’t one of them. The combination of Quintana, Sale, and Carlos Rodon (165.0, 3.0) would have recorded probably 12 wins between them — or basically the precise value of the average entire rotation in 2016. Any contribution from the No. 4 and 5 starters would have rendered the rotation an above-average one. Bench/Prospects After years of relatively barren farm systems, the White Sox now have not a barren farm system. While absent from the depth-chart image below, Yoan Moncada (650 PA, 2.2 zWAR) and Michael Kopech (148.2 IP, 1.3 zWAR) — both acquired from Boston in exchange for Chris Sale — profile as the club’s third-best position player and fourth-best pitcher, respectively. Lucas Giolito (131.2, 1.5) and Reynaldo Lopez (126.2, 0.9), meanwhile — part of the return for Adam Eaton, that pair — rank fourth and seventh by WAR projection among the club’s pitchers. Finally, there’s Tyler Saladino (397, 1.6), who wasn’t acquired in a giant trade and who isn’t even rookie-eligible still, but who is reasonably well acquitted by ZiPS. Depth Chart Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the White Sox, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image. Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning. Batters, Counting Stats Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS Todd Frazier R 31 3B 634 84 138 26 1 30 87 14 7 Jose Abreu R 30 1B 652 79 170 31 2 28 99 1 2 Yoan Moncada B 22 2B 650 72 134 27 3 17 60 34 13 Tim Anderson R 24 SS 586 70 146 23 6 11 47 19 6 Tyler Saladino R 27 2B 397 46 91 14 3 9 42 14 4 Melky Cabrera B 32 LF 607 68 157 33 3 11 71 3 1 Brett Lawrie R 27 2B 455 47 105 22 1 14 47 5 2 Carlos Sanchez B 25 2B 514 53 112 22 3 9 47 9 5 Roberto Pena R 25 C 322 31 69 13 0 5 27 1 0 Kevan Smith R 29 C 327 36 69 12 1 8 32 0 1 Austin Jackson R 30 CF 445 51 103 22 4 5 40 10 5 Jason Coats R 27 RF 506 59 116 25 2 14 56 5 3 Nick Delmonico L 24 1B 353 43 74 19 1 13 43 2 1 Eddy Alvarez B 27 SS 513 56 100 18 3 8 46 15 8 Charlie Tilson L 24 CF 516 57 119 16 7 5 40 19 8 Jake Peter L 24 2B 562 58 122 22 3 6 44 8 2 Adam Engel R 25 CF 534 58 99 17 5 8 39 31 11 Rymer Liriano R 26 RF 415 49 79 16 2 10 40 13 7 Jeremy Dowdy R 26 C 209 21 44 8 1 3 17 0 0 Omar Narvaez L 25 C 303 31 68 9 0 2 21 1 1 Justin Morneau L 36 DH 313 28 75 16 2 8 33 0 1 Jerry Sands R 29 1B 349 37 73 12 1 12 40 0 1 Jacob May B 25 CF 369 37 79 13 1 4 26 18 9 Avisail Garcia R 26 RF 475 62 112 17 2 13 58 5 4 Ronald Bueno B 24 3B 292 28 57 11 2 2 21 6 4 Matt Davidson R 26 3B 472 53 87 17 0 16 51 0 0 Alfredo Gonzalez R 24 C 286 25 55 8 1 1 15 3 2 Leury Garcia B 26 LF 352 39 79 10 3 5 27 16 7 Caleb Gindl L 27 RF 414 38 84 17 2 8 33 2 2 Brett Hayes R 33 C 146 12 27 6 0 4 13 0 0 Jose Vinicio B 23 2B 284 22 66 8 3 2 17 7 6 Danny Hayes L 26 1B 378 41 68 14 2 9 38 0 1 Hunter Jones R 25 CF 397 40 75 10 3 6 27 15 7 Andy Parrino B 31 2B 318 27 57 9 1 4 21 2 1 Trey Michalczewski B 22 3B 563 61 106 23 3 13 58 4 1 Slade Heathcott L 26 CF 239 24 45 7 2 4 21 3 3 Tony Campana L 31 LF 349 33 72 6 2 0 16 17 8 Jason Bourgeois R 35 LF 416 44 98 15 3 3 31 11 4 Courtney Hawkins R 23 LF 433 45 79 20 1 16 54 0 4 Vinny Rottino R 37 1B 324 32 61 10 0 5 25 1 1 Nick Basto R 23 LF 549 60 110 23 2 13 54 1 2 Mason Robbins L 24 RF 481 43 107 18 4 6 39 2 3 Eudy Pina R 26 RF 431 40 80 11 3 6 34 5 3 *** Batters, Rates and Averages Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA Todd Frazier 634 8.2% 22.9% .207 .270 .243 .310 .450 .331 Jose Abreu 652 6.7% 18.9% .202 .320 .288 .348 .490 .350 Yoan Moncada 650 10.5% 25.7% .148 .303 .236 .325 .384 .325 Tim Anderson 586 2.7% 27.8% .121 .348 .260 .284 .381 .295 Tyler Saladino 397 5.5% 20.2% .129 .293 .249 .294 .378 .300 Melky Cabrera 607 6.6% 11.4% .129 .302 .281 .327 .410 .317 Brett Lawrie 455 6.6% 24.4% .158 .310 .252 .308 .410 .313 Carlos Sanchez 514 4.7% 22.4% .116 .290 .235 .276 .351 .276 Roberto Pena 322 4.0% 19.9% .093 .275 .230 .267 .323 .256 Kevan Smith 327 6.4% 22.3% .127 .279 .232 .289 .359 .281 Austin Jackson 445 7.2% 23.1% .111 .326 .254 .309 .365 .302 Jason Coats 506 5.1% 22.1% .152 .296 .248 .294 .400 .302 Nick Delmonico 353 7.1% 31.2% .186 .303 .231 .288 .417 .303 Eddy Alvarez 513 9.0% 24.2% .106 .284 .221 .294 .327 .283 Charlie Tilson 516 6.4% 19.4% .094 .306 .251 .302 .345 .295 Jake Peter 562 6.4% 21.4% .090 .294 .236 .291 .326 .274 Adam Engel 534 7.1% 31.5% .105 .294 .204 .270 .309 .275 Rymer Liriano 415 8.0% 34.0% .133 .305 .211 .282 .344 .287 Jeremy Dowdy 209 8.1% 20.1% .100 .283 .232 .298 .332 .278 Omar Narvaez 303 6.9% 14.5% .054 .282 .245 .298 .299 .265 Justin Morneau 313 6.1% 18.2% .153 .296 .260 .310 .413 .308 Jerry Sands 349 8.6% 26.1% .160 .286 .232 .302 .392 .302 Jacob May 369 4.3% 25.7% .078 .302 .228 .268 .306 .271 Avisail Garcia 475 6.5% 24.8% .137 .321 .257 .312 .394 .311 Ronald Bueno 292 8.2% 27.4% .081 .304 .218 .285 .299 .267 Matt Davidson 472 8.1% 36.0% .153 .293 .205 .276 .358 .274 Alfredo Gonzalez 286 7.3% 25.2% .051 .290 .214 .279 .265 .249 Leury Garcia 352 5.1% 24.4% .095 .314 .243 .285 .338 .282 Caleb Gindl 414 7.7% 24.2% .119 .280 .223 .286 .342 .277 Brett Hayes 146 4.1% 31.5% .130 .261 .196 .234 .326 .242 Jose Vinicio 284 2.5% 18.0% .075 .295 .245 .266 .320 .263 Danny Hayes 378 11.1% 30.4% .136 .282 .205 .295 .341 .280 Hunter Jones 397 6.0% 28.7% .094 .283 .208 .266 .302 .265 Andy Parrino 318 6.9% 31.1% .079 .279 .195 .256 .274 .237 Trey Michalczewski 563 7.3% 34.1% .133 .299 .206 .270 .339 .268 Slade Heathcott 239 7.9% 33.1% .107 .306 .209 .277 .316 .267 Tony Campana 349 5.7% 22.1% .032 .298 .226 .276 .258 .254 Jason Bourgeois 416 5.0% 12.3% .077 .281 .251 .290 .328 .279 Courtney Hawkins 433 4.6% 40.2% .173 .288 .195 .236 .368 .261 Vinny Rottino 324 9.0% 26.2% .087 .280 .212 .291 .299 .265 Nick Basto 549 6.2% 29.3% .131 .291 .219 .274 .350 .271 Mason Robbins 481 1.9% 24.3% .094 .291 .230 .244 .324 .245 Eudy Pina 431 5.1% 32.3% .087 .286 .200 .247 .287 .238 *** Batters, Assorted Other Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp Todd Frazier 634 5.0 110 1 3.4 Gary Gaetti Jose Abreu 652 6.4 132 -3 2.9 Bob Watson Yoan Moncada 650 4.6 98 -4 2.2 Tony Phillips Tim Anderson 586 4.1 85 4 2.2 Alex Gonzalez Tyler Saladino 397 4.2 87 5 1.6 Carlos Garcia Melky Cabrera 607 5.1 106 -4 1.2 Shannon Stewart Brett Lawrie 455 4.6 100 -6 1.2 Bret Boone Carlos Sanchez 514 3.4 75 6 1.0 Doug Strange Roberto Pena 322 3.1 65 5 0.9 Hector Kuilan Kevan Smith 327 3.6 81 -1 0.9 Guillermo Garcia Austin Jackson 445 4.1 89 -2 0.9 Gino Cimoli Jason Coats 506 4.2 93 2 0.8 Jeff Francoeur Nick Delmonico 353 4.2 95 5 0.8 Lee Stevens Eddy Alvarez 513 3.3 74 -1 0.7 Doug Baker Charlie Tilson 516 3.8 82 -2 0.7 Luis Polonia Jake Peter 562 3.4 73 2 0.6 Kelly Paris Adam Engel 534 3.0 62 6 0.5 Gary Varsho Rymer Liriano 415 3.3 75 8 0.4 Jim Orsag Jeremy Dowdy 209 3.5 77 -2 0.4 Dave Parrish Omar Narvaez 303 3.1 69 -1 0.4 Dave Miley Justin Morneau 313 4.6 101 0 0.3 Jorge Orta Jerry Sands 349 4.1 93 1 0.3 Ivan Cruz Jacob May 369 2.9 61 6 0.3 Virgilio Silverio Avisail Garcia 475 4.4 97 -6 0.1 Ruben Mateo Ronald Bueno 292 2.9 64 2 0.1 Manuel Francois Matt Davidson 472 3.4 76 -4 0.1 Paul Russo Alfredo Gonzalez 286 2.5 54 0 0.1 Jeff Tackett Leury Garcia 352 3.5 74 4 0.0 Reggie Williams Caleb Gindl 414 3.3 75 2 -0.2 Matt Bowser Brett Hayes 146 2.6 55 -2 -0.3 Chad Moeller Jose Vinicio 284 2.9 63 2 -0.3 Cris Colon Danny Hayes 378 3.4 78 2 -0.3 Matthew Rizzotti Hunter Jones 397 2.8 59 1 -0.3 Tony Triplett Andy Parrino 318 2.4 49 4 -0.4 Chris Petersen Trey Michalczewski 563 3.2 70 -5 -0.4 Corey Smith Slade Heathcott 239 2.9 66 -4 -0.5 Damon Mashore Tony Campana 349 2.5 51 6 -0.7 Quincy Foster Jason Bourgeois 416 3.5 73 -3 -0.8 Jay Payton Courtney Hawkins 433 2.7 66 -1 -1.3 Brian Pettway Vinny Rottino 324 2.9 66 -4 -1.4 Jason Wood Nick Basto 549 3.3 74 -7 -1.5 Shon Ashley Mason Robbins 481 2.7 58 -2 -2.0 Brennan Boesch Eudy Pina 431 2.4 49 -1 -2.1 Andrew Toussaint *** Pitchers, Counting Stats Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER Jose Quintana L 28 30 30 189.0 168 47 20 189 82 77 Carlos Rodon L 24 28 28 165.0 171 61 19 160 76 71 Lucas Giolito R 22 25 24 131.7 129 53 20 134 70 65 Michael Kopech R 21 28 28 148.7 180 74 16 124 72 67 Miguel Gonzalez R 33 25 25 136.0 105 42 21 146 75 70 James Shields R 35 28 28 166.0 141 61 28 177 96 90 Reynaldo Lopez R 23 26 23 126.7 131 52 20 129 72 67 Nate Jones R 31 52 0 50.0 59 12 7 41 18 17 David Robertson R 32 58 0 59.0 80 23 7 47 24 22 Dan Jennings L 30 58 0 57.3 49 24 5 57 24 22 Jordan Guerrero L 23 24 24 133.0 118 51 21 141 78 73 Zach Putnam R 29 39 0 41.0 48 17 4 35 16 15 Derek Holland L 30 19 17 88.7 67 30 14 95 51 48 Jake Petricka R 29 42 0 43.7 36 19 4 43 19 18 Brian Clark L 24 39 0 57.7 43 16 5 61 27 25 Tommy Kahnle R 27 56 0 58.3 66 37 7 51 29 27 Spencer Adams R 21 26 26 144.7 84 32 23 173 91 85 Zack Burdi R 22 53 0 69.0 78 38 9 65 35 33 Chris Volstad R 30 25 24 140.3 73 44 20 166 89 83 Matt Albers R 34 35 0 35.0 25 11 4 39 18 17 Juan Minaya R 26 41 0 58.3 52 27 6 58 31 29 Giovanni Soto L 26 41 0 51.7 51 29 6 50 28 26 Chris Beck R 26 31 13 92.7 61 39 13 106 58 54 Matt Cooper R 25 32 6 73.0 81 28 14 73 44 41 Michael Ynoa R 25 39 0 51.0 49 29 6 50 28 26 Jordan Stephens R 24 26 26 128.3 122 53 25 137 83 78 Tyler Danish R 22 23 20 114.7 69 44 17 137 75 70 Kameron Loe R 35 21 7 55.7 31 19 9 68 36 34 Blake Smith R 29 44 0 61.7 60 30 9 62 35 33 Nolan Sanburn R 25 35 3 62.3 49 29 9 68 39 36 Anthony Ranaudo R 27 26 24 131.3 96 50 25 148 87 81 Jorge Rondon R 29 46 0 60.7 47 28 7 65 35 33 Daniel Webb R 27 32 0 40.0 34 23 6 42 25 23 Dylan Covey R 25 17 17 83.3 49 42 13 97 58 54 Matt Purke L 26 26 7 51.3 40 31 9 58 36 34 Brad Goldberg R 27 45 0 54.0 49 33 8 56 34 32 David Holmberg L 25 26 25 136.7 85 51 25 161 93 87 Phillippe Aumont R 28 21 5 44.7 46 39 7 45 33 31 Will Lamb L 26 43 0 53.0 44 34 9 57 37 35 Carson Fulmer R 23 28 20 106.0 100 69 20 113 78 73 El’Hajj Muhammad R 25 41 2 47.0 34 39 9 54 39 36 Matt Lollis R 26 44 0 59.3 53 39 12 64 44 41 *** Pitchers, Rates and Averages Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP- Jose Quintana 189.0 803 20.9% 5.9% .300 3.67 3.48 86 80 Carlos Rodon 165.0 716 23.9% 8.5% .308 3.87 3.73 91 86 Lucas Giolito 131.7 582 22.2% 9.1% .305 4.44 4.47 104 103 Michael Kopech 148.7 644 27.9% 11.5% .293 4.06 3.70 96 85 Miguel Gonzalez 136.0 596 17.6% 7.0% .297 4.63 4.63 109 107 James Shields 166.0 736 19.2% 8.3% .299 4.88 4.81 115 111 Reynaldo Lopez 126.7 561 23.3% 9.3% .309 4.76 4.39 112 101 Nate Jones 50.0 203 29.1% 5.9% .276 3.06 3.29 72 76 David Robertson 59.0 247 32.4% 9.3% .294 3.36 3.00 79 69 Dan Jennings 57.3 253 19.4% 9.5% .299 3.45 3.73 81 86 Jordan Guerrero 133.0 591 20.0% 8.6% .305 4.94 4.72 116 109 Zach Putnam 41.0 175 27.4% 9.7% .295 3.29 3.20 77 74 Derek Holland 88.7 391 17.1% 7.7% .292 4.87 4.70 115 108 Jake Petricka 43.7 193 18.6% 9.8% .293 3.71 3.88 87 90 Brian Clark 57.7 250 17.2% 6.4% .304 3.90 3.68 92 85 Tommy Kahnle 58.3 263 25.1% 14.1% .290 4.17 4.20 98 97 Spencer Adams 144.7 639 13.1% 5.0% .305 5.29 4.86 124 112 Zack Burdi 69.0 310 25.2% 12.3% .309 4.30 4.28 101 99 Chris Volstad 140.3 631 11.6% 7.0% .300 5.32 4.99 125 115 Matt Albers 35.0 155 16.1% 7.1% .310 4.37 4.19 103 97 Juan Minaya 58.3 260 20.0% 10.4% .303 4.47 4.15 105 96 Giovanni Soto 51.7 234 21.8% 12.4% .303 4.53 4.44 107 102 Chris Beck 92.7 423 14.4% 9.2% .305 5.24 4.94 123 114 Matt Cooper 73.0 320 25.3% 8.8% .306 5.05 4.70 119 108 Michael Ynoa 51.0 232 21.1% 12.5% .306 4.59 4.48 108 103 Jordan Stephens 128.3 575 21.2% 9.2% .305 5.47 5.16 129 119 Tyler Danish 114.7 525 13.1% 8.4% .308 5.49 5.11 129 118 Kameron Loe 55.7 254 12.2% 7.5% .307 5.50 5.22 129 121 Blake Smith 61.7 277 21.7% 10.8% .304 4.82 4.66 113 108 Nolan Sanburn 62.3 284 17.3% 10.2% .306 5.20 5.00 122 115 Anthony Ranaudo 131.3 592 16.2% 8.4% .296 5.55 5.40 131 125 Jorge Rondon 60.7 275 17.1% 10.2% .305 4.90 4.49 115 104 Daniel Webb 40.0 185 18.4% 12.4% .298 5.17 5.01 122 116 Dylan Covey 83.3 389 12.6% 10.8% .300 5.83 5.65 137 130 Matt Purke 51.3 243 16.5% 12.8% .305 5.96 5.76 140 133 Brad Goldberg 54.0 251 19.5% 13.1% .302 5.33 5.11 125 118 David Holmberg 136.7 622 13.7% 8.2% .300 5.73 5.51 135 127 Phillippe Aumont 44.7 218 21.1% 17.9% .306 6.25 5.84 147 135 Will Lamb 53.0 250 17.6% 13.6% .300 5.94 5.75 140 133 Carson Fulmer 106.0 500 20.0% 13.8% .307 6.20 5.85 146 135 El’Hajj Muhammad 47.0 234 14.5% 16.7% .302 6.89 6.77 162 156 Matt Lollis 59.3 281 18.9% 13.9% .299 6.22 5.97 146 138 *** Pitchers, Assorted Other Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp Jose Quintana 189.0 8.00 2.24 0.95 113 3.9 John Candelaria Carlos Rodon 165.0 9.33 3.33 1.04 107 3.0 Danny Jackson Lucas Giolito 131.7 8.82 3.62 1.37 93 1.5 Freddy Garcia Michael Kopech 148.7 10.89 4.48 0.97 102 1.3 Bobby Witt Miguel Gonzalez 136.0 6.95 2.78 1.39 89 1.2 Larry Luebbers James Shields 166.0 7.64 3.31 1.52 85 1.0 Mike Torrez Reynaldo Lopez 126.7 9.31 3.69 1.42 87 0.9 Wascar Serrano Nate Jones 50.0 10.62 2.16 1.26 135 0.9 Rick Aguilera David Robertson 59.0 12.20 3.51 1.07 123 0.8 Todd Jones Dan Jennings 57.3 7.70 3.77 0.79 120 0.7 Javier Lopez Jordan Guerrero 133.0 7.98 3.45 1.42 84 0.7 Mike Connolly Zach Putnam 41.0 10.54 3.73 0.88 126 0.6 Ken Ryan Derek Holland 88.7 6.80 3.04 1.42 85 0.5 Joe Magrane Jake Petricka 43.7 7.41 3.91 0.82 112 0.4 Ed Farmer Brian Clark 57.7 6.71 2.50 0.78 106 0.4 Steve Sharts Tommy Kahnle 58.3 10.19 5.71 1.08 99 0.2 Mark Acre Spencer Adams 144.7 5.22 1.99 1.43 78 0.1 Paul Quantrill Zack Burdi 69.0 10.17 4.96 1.17 96 0.1 Billy Sadler Chris Volstad 140.3 4.68 2.82 1.28 78 0.1 Don Nottebart Matt Albers 35.0 6.43 2.83 1.03 95 0.0 Ken Sanders Juan Minaya 58.3 8.03 4.17 0.93 93 0.0 Joel Moore Giovanni Soto 51.7 8.88 5.05 1.04 91 0.0 Scott Wiggins Chris Beck 92.7 5.92 3.79 1.26 79 -0.1 Stan Kyles Matt Cooper 73.0 9.99 3.45 1.73 82 -0.1 Julian Heredia Michael Ynoa 51.0 8.65 5.12 1.06 90 -0.1 Blaine Neal Jordan Stephens 128.3 8.56 3.72 1.75 76 -0.2 Jose Acevedo Tyler Danish 114.7 5.41 3.45 1.33 75 -0.2 Zach McClellan Kameron Loe 55.7 5.01 3.07 1.45 75 -0.2 Joe Haynes Blake Smith 61.7 8.75 4.38 1.31 86 -0.3 Marty McLeary Nolan Sanburn 62.3 7.08 4.19 1.30 80 -0.3 Brad Pautz Anthony Ranaudo 131.3 6.58 3.43 1.71 75 -0.3 Rusty Richards Jorge Rondon 60.7 6.97 4.15 1.04 85 -0.3 Jake Robbins Daniel Webb 40.0 7.65 5.18 1.35 80 -0.4 Ed Sprague Dylan Covey 83.3 5.29 4.54 1.40 71 -0.5 Kevin Hodges Matt Purke 51.3 7.02 5.44 1.58 69 -0.6 Wes Pierorazio Brad Goldberg 54.0 8.17 5.50 1.33 78 -0.6 Mike Zimmerman David Holmberg 136.7 5.60 3.36 1.65 72 -0.6 Larry Casian Phillippe Aumont 44.7 9.26 7.85 1.41 66 -0.7 Bart Evans Will Lamb 53.0 7.47 5.77 1.53 70 -1.0 Randy Phillips Carson Fulmer 106.0 8.49 5.86 1.70 67 -1.2 Robert Person El’Hajj Muhammad 47.0 6.51 7.47 1.72 60 -1.3 Mark Zamarripa Matt Lollis 59.3 8.04 5.92 1.82 67 -1.3 John Thompson *** Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.” Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.