2017 ZiPS Projections – Chicago White Sox

After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Chicago White Sox. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Boston / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / New York AL / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
The White Sox have dealt two of their best players this offseason, and reports indicate that at least one more trade is likely. As a result, these ZiPS projections serve not only as a preview for the 2017 edition of the club but also as an instrument to better evaluate trade value. Corner infielders Jose Abreu (652 PA, 2.9 zWAR) and Todd Frazier (634 PA, 3.4 zWAR) would appear to be most appealing in this regard. Both receive above-average win projections (the top-two figures among Chicago field players) while also featuring contracts that compensate them at something less than market rate.

Among those members of the team who are almost certain to return in 2017, shortstop Tim Anderson (586, 2.2) earns the top forecast. ZiPS offers little encouragement regarding Anderson’s plate discipline — calling for a walk and strikeout rate of 2.7% and 27.8%, respectively — but projects sufficiently strong batted-ball skill (.348 BABIP) and defense (+4 runs at short) to render Anderson a solidly average player.

Pitchers
Whether one measures his performance by FIP or runs allowed, left-hander Jose Quintana (189.0 IP, 3.9 zWAR) has averaged roughly five wins per season over the last three years — a remarkable and improbable outcome, that, for a pitcher who was acquired as a minor-league free agent and possesses merely decent velocity. Szymborski’s model suggests that Quintana might fail to reach the five-win mark in 2017. Nevertheless, he’s wildly undercompensated relative to his skill level. Owed roughly $35 million over the next four years (including two club options), he could produce the equivalent of that in wins by the end of 2017.

One note about this White Sox team: for whatever their weaknesses entering the 2016-17 offseason, the club’s collection of starting pitchers really wasn’t one of them. The combination of Quintana, Sale, and Carlos Rodon (165.0, 3.0) would have recorded probably 12 wins between them — or basically the precise value of the average entire rotation in 2016. Any contribution from the No. 4 and 5 starters would have rendered the rotation an above-average one.

Bench/Prospects
After years of relatively barren farm systems, the White Sox now have not a barren farm system. While absent from the depth-chart image below, Yoan Moncada (650 PA, 2.2 zWAR) and Michael Kopech (148.2 IP, 1.3 zWAR) — both acquired from Boston in exchange for Chris Sale — profile as the club’s third-best position player and fourth-best pitcher, respectively. Lucas Giolito (131.2, 1.5) and Reynaldo Lopez (126.2, 0.9), meanwhile — part of the return for Adam Eaton, that pair — rank fourth and seventh by WAR projection among the club’s pitchers.

Finally, there’s Tyler Saladino (397, 1.6), who wasn’t acquired in a giant trade and who isn’t even rookie-eligible still, but who is reasonably well acquitted by ZiPS.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the White Sox, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.