2018 ZiPS Projections – Tampa Bay Rays

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Tampa Bay Rays. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
Most major-league clubs probably feature multiple players whom one could reasonably designate as the Face of the Franchise. Until recently, that was not the case with the Tampa Bay Rays. Basically ever since his debut in 2008, Evan Longoria has been synonymous with the club — due in no small part, one assumes, to the concurrence of his best years with the best years of the team. Traded to the Giants on December 20, he’s expected to produce roughly three wins for San Francisco.

How the club will attempt to replace those wins remains uncertain at the moment. Christian Arroyo (409 PA, 0.6 zWAR), Matt Duffy (444, 1.3), Daniel Robertson (406, 1.0), Ryan Schimpf (459, 0.5), and Joey Wendle (563, 1.0) are all candidates for the second- and third-base nexus in Tampa Bay, each flawed in his way. I’ve included Duffy, Robertson, and Wendle on the depth-chart image below simply because they receive the top projections from Dan Szymborski’s computer.

The author noted elsewhere recently that Byron Buxton recorded the highest WAR (3.5) of any player in 2017 who also produced a below-average batting line. By virtue of his 2015 season, however, Kevin Kiermaier (474, 3.3) has the top mark by that same criteria of any player since 1997. He’s projected to produce a precisely league-average batting line in 2018 while also saving 14 runs in center field.

Pitchers
One could probably make a case for Kiermaier as the Face of the Franchise, but the most likely recipient of that designation in the absence of Longoria is Chris Archer (195.2 IP, 4.2 zWAR). Archer possesses objectively excellent stuff — stuff that has translated into excellent fielding-independent numbers, as well. Notably, however, Archer’s run-prevention numbers haven’t been as excellent.

Consider:

ZiPS calls for Archer to suffer a smaller gap (-0.17) between the two figures in 2018. Behind him is a collection of promising young talent, including Jake Faria (147.1, 2.0), Jake Odorizzi (151.1, 1.8), and Blake Snell (175.1, 2.9), all of whom profile as average or better starters. Brent Honeywell (133.1, 2.0) could be included in that list, as well, although it appears as though Nathan Eovaldi (96.2, 1.0) is more likely to earn an Opening Day rotation spot.

The bullpen features a number of competent, largely interchangeable pieces. Alex Colome (66.2 IP, 82 ERA-, 1.1 zWAR) is technically the closer, but Dan Jennings (58.1, 80, 0.9) is actually projected to recorded a slightly lower park-adjusted ERA. Neither Andrew Kittredge (77.1, 87, 0.9) nor Chaz Roe (50.0, 85, 0.6) linger far behind on that account, either.

Bench/Prospects
Jake Bauers (582 PA, 1.6 zWAR) has never recorded a plate appearance above Triple-A. Nevertheless, he receives the top projection among hitters omitted from the depth-chart image below. Willy Adames (590, 1.2) is another player who has yet to escape the minors; however, he features the second-best projection of the players omitted from the depth chart.

As noted above, Brent Honeywell appears to represent not merely a useful possible replacement for Tampa Bay’s rotation, but an improvement over at least one or two of its members. Matt Andriese (121.0 IP, 1.4 zWAR) maybe isn’t an improvement, but is at least useful.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Rays, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.