2018 ZiPS Projections – Atlanta Braves

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Atlanta Braves. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
Atlanta’s rebuild hasn’t taken the same form as the sort performed by the Astros or Cubs. Indeed, on paper, there’s little evidence of a rebuild at all. Consider, by way of illustration, the end-of-year payroll figures for the club since their last winning season (2013).

Atlanta’s financial obligations in 2017 exceeded the totals of every prior year in franchise history. With the exception of Freddie Freeman (566 PA, 4.2 zWAR), though, none of the club’s largest commitments were expected to make a substantive difference on the field. The club’s record last year suggests that those expectations were well founded.

While the club’s process might have been different, Atlanta’s current roster nevertheless resembles the sort typically possessed by a team on the verge of ascent, populated largely by cost-controlled players with tremendous potential. If Dan Szymborski’s computer is any indication, the 2018 season could represent the one in which much of that potential translates to success. Ender Inciarte (677, 3.4) and Dansby Swanson (589, 2.3) are projected to record more wins than Shelby Miller (for whom they were acquired) has produced in his best season. Ozzie Albies (697, 3.3) and Ronald Acuña (594, 2.8), meanwhile, are forecast for just over six wins as a pair — this, despite having accumulated fewer than 300 major-league plate appearances between them (all belonging to Albies).

As Craig Edwards noted towards the end of last week, Atlanta might actually be well positioned right now to address their weaknesses by way of free agency. For the current roster, that would probably mean finding replacements for Nick Markakis (623, 0.5) in the outfield and the combination of Johan Camargo (468, 0.6) and Rio Ruiz (579, 1.2) at third.

Pitchers
The pitching staff doesn’t appear as likely to benefit from a great coalescence of breakouts as the offense. Julio Teheran (182.0 IP, 2.0 zWAR) has recorded 30-plus starts in each of the past five years and enters the season as the nominal ace of the rotation. Mike Foltynewicz (143.2, 1.1) and Sean Newcomb (153.1, 1.9) are forecast more or less to reproduce their 2017 campaigns, while Brandon McCarthy (86.1, 1.1) receives average rate but modest innings projections.

None of this, however, is to note the starter for whom ZiPS has produced the most promising numbers — namely, Luiz Gohara (148.0, 2.7). The 21-year-old left-hander has recorded only five appearances (all starts) as a major leaguer — all after the advent of roster expansion last year — but is forecast for nearly three wins in 2018.

In the bullpen, Arodys Vizcaino (52.1 IP, 80 ERA-, 1.0 zWAR) is the closer and features the second-best adjusted ERA projection in the organization. The best-best adjusted ERA forecast belongs to A.J. Minter (38.0, 77, 0.7), who recorded strikeout and walk rates of 43.3% and 3.3%, respectively, in 15.0 innings for the parent club last season.

Bench/Prospects
As noted above, the very best of Atlanta’s system is likely to play a role with the parent club this year. Among those players omitted from the depth-chart image below, however, Austin Riley (562 PA, 0.9 zWAR) receives the top projection among rookie-eligible position players. He’s not an immediate solution to Atlanta’s third-base deficiency but might have viability there in the long term.

Among pitchers, Mike Soroka (144.2 IP, 1.9 zWAR) earns the top marks among those omitted from the depth chart below. One of the three players selected in the first round of the 2015 draft, the right-handed Soroka is forecast to record basically league-average numbers as a starter despite having just completed only his age-19 season.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of Atlanta, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.