Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 1/24/18

2:01
Dan Szymborski: Commence the composition of our baseball quodlibet.

2:02
Jason: Hosmer to San Diego?

2:03
Dan Szymborski: If this happened?  ROFL Padres.

2:03
Roadhog: At what price point does Cain make sense for the A’s? 3/60?

2:03
Dan Szymborski: Not sure it’s relaly the best fit.  There are contenders that ought to be interested in him.

2:03
Eric Hosmer: Where do I end up and will I still get $200 million?

2:03
Dan Szymborski: I can’t imagine $200 million unless MLB is doing it as penalty for some serious infraction by a team.

2:03
Desperate, confused Marlins fan: Why dont the Rockies just give the 1st base job to Mcmahon? is Desmond really that viable an option?

2:04
Dan Szymborski: McMahon’s probably better, but I don’t expect him to be a league-average offensive 1B in Coors.

2:04
Dan Szymborski: Desmond at first is just certifiably moronic, of course.

2:06
Dan Szymborski: Remember, Reynolds hit 267/352/487 and that only made a 105 OPS+

2:07
Dan Szymborski: An average starting 1B tends to be somewhere between 112 and 120 depending on the year.

2:07
Busted Pinata: Any advice for someone who wants to begin generating his own projection model? Any resources that helped you to begin or places to start

2:07
Dan Szymborski: Well, you need lots of data and lots of tools to explore what’s predictive.

2:07
Eli: Given how high the marginal value of a win is for them, are the Yankees making a terrible mistake with plan $197?

2:07
Dan Szymborski: I actually think they’re past the point where marginal wins have a ton of value

2:07
SC: Projections are pretty high on Dansby compared to last year. Are you as confident?

2:07
Dan Szymborski: I’m still confident.

2:07
Rollie’s Mustache: Do you have a strong opinion on Hall of Fame selections? It seems like the vote discrepancies this year are exceptionally baffling: ie. Hoffman over Wagner, Vizquel over Rolen, Vlad over Walker.

2:08
Dan Szymborski: Vizquel over Rolen is atrocious, of course.

2:09
Dan Szymborski: But it’s hard to separate all the weird ones when many, many voters are stuck with 10 only because the Hall won’t let them vote more.  It’s resulted in a lot of ballots that look really odd in a world in which the Hall of Fame board isn’t populated by a bunch of hapless idiots.

2:10
Dan Szymborski: For example, if I had a vote (I still have some years to go in BBWAA to get my ballot), by the time I had to mail my ballot, I’d be sure enough about there election that I wouldn’t be able to “afford” a meaningless spot for Chipper, Thome, or Vlad.

2:10
Nathan: Do you think the Yankees will make another big move this offseason?

2:10
Dan Szymborski: No

2:10
Jordan: Yelich and Castro to the Brewers for Brinson, Phillips, and Hiura/DIaz. Could this deal work or do the Marlins want more?

2:10
Dan Szymborski: I think Marlins want more

2:11
Dan Szymborski: The fact is, that the Marlins aren’t in the place that, even with his happiness, that they feel they need to trade him.  And if they become serious, there will be a lot of bidders

2:11
ryan: why so few PAs for freeman in the braves ZiPS?

2:11
Dan Szymborski: This is one of those questions for which I’d urge you to read *all* the text in the disclaimer.

2:12
Purple Mays Haze: If Machado gets traded…..Mountastle is Oriole 3B??

2:12
Dan Szymborski: I don’t believe so.

2:13
Dan Szymborski: The Orioles have  maintained they want him at SS until he proves that he can’t hack it

2:13
Dan Szymborski: But if he doesn’t, I’d more expect him at 2B or the OF

2:13
Jonathan: Not trying to be a pain at all, just confused and hoping for clarification.  You’ve always (correctly IMO!) claimed that there shouldn’t be a human element to ZiPS projections.  Why do we see, then, a few players with lower DR projections get Ex range ratings in Diamond Mind’s software and a few players with higher DR projections get Vg range ratings?  Even if we account for error and arm components and focus just on range, it seems like there are inconsistencies every year.  Why not just have an algorithm that spits out those range ratings and have no after-the-fact modifications?

2:13
Dan Szymborski: It’s essentially done, but I do have to double-check

2:13
Dan Szymborski: DMB suffers from granularity issues.

2:14
Dan Szymborski: In defensive ratings.

2:14
Dan Szymborski: And different number ranges for diffferent positions

2:15
Justin: Is DDS a big enough liability in CF that it’s worth it to bring Carlos Gomez back?

2:15
Dan Szymborski: Delino DeShields?  Can we not use non-standard abbreviations!

2:15
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it makes sense.

2:15
Dan Szymborski: (In this way, there may be other arguments for Gomez)

2:16
Dan Szymborski: For one, I don’t think he’s bad CF, just an ordinary one

2:17
Dan Szymborski: And two, I don’t think it’s likely he is a usable starter in a corner, so you might as well start him in CF if your’e going to make anything out of him

2:17
Mac: How much longer do you think Scherzer can sustain his recent level of performance? Will be 34 in July.

2:17
Dan Szymborski: Until you get to late 30s, pitchers don’t really age, they break

2:17
Purple Mays Haze: When the offseason started, Dave C estimated about a 90% probability that Dellin Betances gets dealt. Now it seems like it’s more like 10%. Where do you put the likelihood?

2:17
Dan Szymborski: Put me on the low side of that.

2:17
Dan Szymborski: Though I think they should

2:17
Estevao: Larry Walker is 1 of 2 players ever with an ISO of .250 or more, a .400+ OBP and over 200 Stolen Bases, the other one is Barry Bonds.

http://maximustake23.blogspot.com.br/2017/12/larry-walker-his-cooperst…

2:18
Robert Luis: Does Yoan Moncada break the 3 WAR threshold this year?

2:18
Dan Szymborski: He can, but I’d guess on the light side

2:18
Pad Squad: Should the Padres sign Eric Hosmer now, or wait a year or two and sign a great third baseman or left fielder? Anybody in mind as a great fit in the future?

2:18
Dan Szymborski: Eric Hosmer doesn’t do much for the Padres.

2:19
Dan Szymborski: Hosmer isn’t some Michelin-star restaurant you need to reserve early for your wedding anniversary next year.

2:19
Dan Szymborski: He’s Olive Garden.

2:19
Dan Szymborski: If you want to go to Olive Garden, you just go to Olive Garden.

2:19
Josh Nelson: Let’s say the Milwaukee Brewers trade for Christian Yelich and sign Yu Darvish. How would those two moves impact their 2018 record projection? Enough to be a serious contender against the Cubs?

2:19
Dan Szymborski: I think the CUbs are still favored, but the Brewers look damned good.

2:19
Estevao: Hi Dan i’m sorry to bother you with this but i was hoping you could help me out, i’m for a while now trying to get a piece on FG Community Research, Jeff keeps declining them, while i understand i have a long way to go, some tips on what to do would be great  https://maximustake23.blogspot.com.br/

2:20
Pad Squad: Jayson Werth for the Nats and Jon Lester for the Cubs were two signings that were sort of early additions to clubs one or two years away from competing. If not Eric Hosmer, who should be that same kind of FA signing by the Padres this or next offseason?

2:20
Dan Szymborski: The problems here.

2:20
Dan Szymborski: One is that Jon Lester is a *lot* better a free agent than Eric Hosmer is now.

2:20
Dan Szymborski: Second, Werth was an atrocious signing for the Nats, who paid over $100 million and got two full good seasons in seven.

2:20
M.J. : I’m doing a research project that focuses on platooning. Do you know any way I could find a list of 20 or so platoon players?

2:21
Dan Szymborski: Get all the vs. RHP vs. LHP data and look for teams that have players at the same position with significantly greater than average RHP/LHP splits.

2:21
mike sixel: If you were the Twins, would you rather have Darvish, or Lynn/Cobb and Cain. Cain can spell Kepler vs lefties, and would be a better DH option than what they have. Also, Buxton will run into the wall again and be out for a couple weeks. thanks, (another option I don’t like is both Lynn and Cobb….)

2:21
Dan Szymborski: Darvish

2:22
Dan Szymborski: Cain’s not interesting if you have Buxton

2:22
Dan Szymborski: And while Lynn’s probably a fine inning-eater, Darvish is a lot better

2:22
Kderg: Does ZiPS currently use Statcast data, and are there any plans to? I’d think it would especially be useful for updating in-season projections.

2:22
Dan Szymborski: There is some int htere

2:22
Scuffy Mcgee: Charlie Blackmon: Another monster year or big time regression candidate.

2:22
Dan Szymborski: Some regression, but he should still be damn good

2:22
Scuffy Mcgee: Early AL and NL rookie of the year predictions

2:23
Dan Szymborski: Already wrote a piece on that.

2:23
Pad Squad: Jayson Werth for the Nats and Jon Lester for the Cubs were two signings that were sort of early additions to clubs one or two years away from competing. If not Eric Hosmer, who should be that same kind of FA signing by the Padres this or next offseason? I’m thinking a 3B or lefty outfielder.

2:23
Dan Szymborski: Well, if the team is paying for Machado or Harper, sure.  They’re the types of players you can’t just show up to without reservations at 7:30

2:23
Dan Dan the Cheerleading Man: Bonds and Clements likely being excluded from HOF, good or bad?

2:23
Dan Szymborski: Silly

2:24
Dan Szymborski: Amusingly, the only thing I’d ding Bonds for, if he had been a borderline candidate, was the positive amphetamine test, since it happened at a point at which it was explicitly cheating.

2:24
Dan Szymborski: (post summer 2004)

2:25
Dan Szymborski: And before someone says “But Vincent’s steroids memo,” that memo had about the same value as me writing to the IRS informing them that 1% of tax collections will be sent to my checking account every year.

2:26
Dan Szymborski: Even Vincent didn’t think it actually meant anything in the context of players.  Essentially, Vincent’s memo banned Pat Gillick or Dave Dombrowski from using steroids.

2:26
Biscuit: Think German Marquez has another gear in him, or is last year pretty much what we can expect?

2:26
Dan Szymborski: He was very young, I think there’s upside

2:27
DuPu: Hi Dan, enjoyed listening to you on Road2Atlanta. Can you provide additional Albies/Acuna comps that you mentioned in that podcast? I forgot most of them except LOLstings Milledge

2:27
Dan Szymborski: Don’t have ’em offhand!

2:27
William: Do you still have faith in Tyler Glasnow?

2:27
Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t call it faith at this point.  But I think he still has significant upside

2:27
William: T or F: “Projected to be league average hitter at 20” puts a player in a special category all on its own.

2:27
Dan Szymborski: True

2:28
natsfan: Who so you see filling the nearly vacant Nationals catching spot?

2:28
Dan Szymborski: I could see th em going after Lucroy

2:29
Daron: For Christian Yelich which elements of his projection would most be influenced by a move from Marlins Park to Miller Park? How significant (or insignificant) is the change?

2:29
Dan Szymborski: Home runs for sure.

2:30
Dan Szymborski: Miller Park has regularly been the best or second-best HR park for lefties

2:30
Dan Szymborski: And I think the team would encourage a little more loft given the benefit

2:30
Dan Szymborski: +

2:30
Patty O’Furniture: Todd Frazier to the Braves seems like a perfect match, right?

2:30
Dan Szymborski: Meh.

2:30
Dan Szymborski: I like Frazier but I don’t see the point (yet) here

2:32
Dan Szymborski: There are interesting things to see at third, far more than any win now move.

2:33
Dan Szymborski: You have interesting questions up-in-the-air right now with players like Camargo and Ruiz and two of their top 15 or so prospects are best-served playing that position until they prove they can’t hack it (Riley, Demeritte)

2:33
Jasper: If the Mets were willing to spend a little, wouldn’t Cain make a ton of sense for them, especially with Conforto out a couple months?

2:34
Dan Szymborski: Not after the Bruce signing.

2:36
Dan Szymborski: I don’t see enough benefit from a couple of months of Cain over Nimmo or Lagares to justify a weird OF problem.

2:36
Dan Szymborski: I mean yeah, you could move Bruce to 1B, but that’ salready throwing in the towel on Smith, which I don’t think they should be doing

2:36
Ron Fowler: If you’re the AJ Preller, your window is 2020, and ownership is telling you that you have to either sign 32 year old Lorenzo Cain at $17.5M/year or 28 year old Hosmer at $23M/year, which do you take

2:36
Dan Szymborski: Cain

2:36
Dan Szymborski: Easily

2:36
Gub Gub: Can you honestly justify your plot to block out the sun?

2:37
Dan Szymborski: As the sun is likely our eventual destroyer, we should take every opportunity to shake our fist at it and rage against the growing of the light

2:38
Dan Szymborski: (Yeah, I know what the poem is, but technically the sun’s mechanism for destroying us will involve increased magnitude)

2:38
R: Do you suggest combining ZiPs with Steamer or do you believe that ZiPs is a lot better?

2:38
Dan Szymborski: I’ve never said ZiPS is a lot better!  The top projection systems tend to be in the same neighbhood

2:38
Fangraph’s Lurker: does it blow your mind that there’s a high likelihood some of the top HS prospects may be eating tid pods?

2:39
Dan Szymborski: I’d be compassionate about the whole thing if little kids were currently eating them, but 17 year-olds, I consider it natural selection.

2:39
El Guapo: Will Orlando Arcia ever be a fantasy value?

2:39
Dan Szymborski: I t hink that’ll be tough.

2:39
Dan Szymborski: Let’s say Arcia is an above-average regular long-term.  Some of that will necessarily be from defensive value (if it happens), which you don’t get rewarded for.

2:39
RotoLando: Who has a weaker union, MLB Players or Longshanks’ fey son in Braveheart?

2:39
Dan Szymborski: heh

2:39
Chuncey Wiggins: Do you think Nolan Ryan threw faster than Chapman?

2:40
Dan Szymborski: Probably not.  Maybe it would be different if Ryan was relief only.

2:40
Wes: 01/03/18 chat you dropped a hint of a hidden name in the Blue Jays ZiPs. I missed last week’s chat but don’t see that you told us your secrets. Who’s the hidden gem?

2:40
Dan Szymborski: There’s a Wild Wild West reference in there.

2:40
Tom Hendry: What are your thoughts on the slow pace of this offseason? It seems like the guys who do sign like Santana or Bruce or Chatwood got exactly what they were expected to get, maybe even a couple million more.  Were they just lucky to get contracts on par with last year or what?

2:40
Dan Szymborski: There’s simply less stupid money out there

2:40
Dan Szymborski: Plenty of money, but there are fewer people going OMG RBIS THROW ALL THE MONEY AT IT

2:41
Dan Szymborski: I think that owners make most of the horrible big-money signings these days.

2:41
Nesi: Do you remember the name of the old guy who used to predict hall of fame election results? He might have been a professor?

2:41
Dan Szymborski: I do not

2:41
Cody: How much sense does Lorenzo Cain make to the Braves?

2:41
Dan Szymborski: Makes some sense, but I’d be interested ina s horter-term solution

2:42
Dan Szymborski: The Brewers do have assets there and since there is a limited number of free agents that they’ll ever have on the same roster, I’d keep the powder dry for Cain

2:42
Dan Szymborski: BUT there’s a price at which it makese sense anyway

2:42
Dan Dan the Cheerleading Man: What is the ideal bread texture for a sandwich, I recently had Taylor Gourmet and thought it was too tough. However, my east coast friends called me weak and said sandwiches should have tough bread but I prefer soft. What’s your take?

2:42
Dan Szymborski: I think i tdepends what’s in the sandwich

2:43
Dan Szymborski: If you have very tougher chewy insides, I like soft bread.  But if you have something really soft like some kind of mayonnaise salad thing, I like something a little tougher on the soutisde

2:44
hp: what position does ZiPS project Nick Senzel to play? and beyond that, where do you think he’ll fit into the Reds plans this season?

2:44
Dan Szymborski: It’s the fourth field in the projectiosn!

2:44
Tom Hendry: Mountcastle is stating out at 3B in Bowie this year.

2:44
Dan Szymborski: I was actually completely unaware of that

2:44
Dan Szymborski: I missed them throwing in the towel

2:44
TKDC: Does player weight/height factor into Zips, and if so, do you have Luiz Gohara at his listed 210 lbs.?

2:44
Dan Szymborski: I found it didn’t really provide much value

2:44
Reds Fan in Distress: I’m horrified at the though that Jesse Winker will be relegated to being a part of an outfield rotation. Am I the only one who thinks this is insanity?

2:44
Dan Szymborski: No, it’s insanity.

2:45
Dan Szymborski: If Schebler or Duvall prvent the Reds from playing Winker full-time, th en  you trade Schebler or Duvall

2:45
Rod: How long does a player have to wait to sign before his attached qualifying offer evaporates?  Is it Opening Day?  Didn’t that happen with Kendrys Morales a few years ago?

2:45
Dan Szymborski: Stephen Drew too

2:46
Dan Szymborski: It doesn’t disappear ujntil the draft

2:46
Raul Gillette: If you were running the Yankees, would you sign a stopgap guy for 2B and/or 3B or just run the kids out there from Day 1 of the season?

2:46
Dan Szymborski: I think I’d sign a stopgap at third and get to Torres quickly

2:46
hp: are there particular stats within ZiPS that you’ve found to have more strong predictors than others? i.e. can it predict any particular stats with more certainty than others?

2:46
Dan Szymborski: Well, it’s not really a ZiPS problem, simply that, say, BA is naturally more volatile than walk rate

2:46
john s: the dave matthews band has far more pressing problems than granularity issues.

2:46
Rod: Should the Braves trade Arodys Vizcaino?  I would

2:47
Dan Szymborski: Yes

2:47
john s: Should the Padres sign Eric Hosmer now or cut off the toes of the first hundred season ticket holders to reup?

2:47
Dan Szymborski: Heh

2:47
Dan: My ATL/LAD payroll based trade proposal:     ARI acquires Jacoby Ellsbury (3/$68M); NYY acquires Yasmani Tomas (3/$48M, but with an AAV of only $11M for luxury tax purposes, because his contract is backloaded).  Arizona gets the better player and can get rid of Tomas for only a bit of extra money (maybe New York kicks in another $10M or a mid level prospect?).  New York gets a significantly reduced AAV player for luxury tax purposes.  Ellsbury gets to play every day in Arizona, where he lives during the offseason.

2:48
Dan Szymborski: I’ve heard worse ideas.

2:48
Career guy: Devers or Sano, longterm?

2:48
Dan Szymborski: Devers.  But that’s becuase I like Devers

2:48
2007 Jake Peavy: You live in an alternate universe and you just became the owner/GM of the 31st MLB team (Expos, let’s say). Bud Selig is still the commissioner and is off his rocker, and stipulates that your expansion roster consist one of the following: 1) Your selection of the best 8 prospects in baseball with the rest of your team selected from the standard expansion set of cast off players; 2) Your selection of the best 4 MLB pitchers with the rest of your team selected from AAA players who have never made it to the Majors; or 3) Your selection of the best 4 MLB hitters with the rest of your team selected from AAA players who have never made it to the Majors. Which option do you take?

2:48
Dan Szymborski: I’d take 3.

2:48
Dan Szymborski: No way Bud’s that generous to me

2:48
John H: This sure feels like collusion. Maybe it’s not like mid 80’s collusion but the owners found a way to side step without this being illegal. This is the modern day collusion.

2:49
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think so.

2:49
Dan Szymborski: There’s simply a lot more unanimity on a player’s value then there ever was, which is going to suppress auctions.

2:50
Dan Szymborski: A $20 bill has real value.  But everyone knows what a $20 bill is worth.  There is unlikely to be a crazy person who bids $100

2:50
Julian: What’s the argument against Andruw Jones for the HOF?

2:50
Dan Szymborski: That you only have 10 spots and dont’ want to game your ballot

2:50
Gub Gub: What is your stance on mascots?

2:51
Dan Szymborski: They exist

2:51
john s: Mookie Betts is on the Red Sox.  What color Padres’ jersey will Eric Hosmer look best in?

2:51
Dan Szymborski: Everything looks good in mustard-and-brown.  But the Padres prefer vanilla on their dogs for some reason

2:51
Eddie Dingle: ZiPS has Khris Davis going for 36 HR, what are the odds he cracks 40 again?

2:51
Dan Szymborski: Based on zips, I dunno, 40%?  DOn’t have it in front of m,e

2:51
Pad Squad’s Friend: I think what Pad Squad is getting at is that, when looking at the 2019, 2020 FA classes, there aren’t any other players out there for the Padres to pick up who will have the same impact that Hosmer will have. If that’s the case, making the reservation for Hosmer in 2018 makes more sense, especially if they are able to structure a deal that pays him significantly more than most contracts in the front two years before the bulk of the Myers contract kicks in in 2020.

2:52
Dan Szymborski: It doesn’t make Hosmer any better.

2:52
Dan Szymborski: And the needs in 2 more seasons aren’t known yet

2:52
MikeM: Re: The Yankees and marginal wins.  With the advent of the play-in game wouldn’t the Yankees look to add a bit to try to create some separation between them and the Red Sox to try and avoid the game or is it a better strategy to let the first few months of the season play out and then address your weaknesses at the trade deadline?

2:52
Dan Szymborski: I didn’t so no marginal value, just that it starts to disappear

2:53
Dan Szymborski: I actually think the Yankees are significantly better than the Red Sox

2:53
Matt: With the strength of the Padres farm how far away from contention do you see them as?

2:53
Dan Szymborski: 2020 unless they screw it up

2:53
Gub Gub: Fill in the blank.  There was a vote, and you have been exiled to Mars. We tried to put a positive spin on it by saying, “What an honor, Dan is going to be the first ________ on Mars!”

2:54
Dan Szymborski: If I’m being exiled to Mars, I imagine I’d choose suicide first.

2:54
Dan Szymborski: I do NOT like flying

2:54
Gub Gub: This of course assumes that there is already a thriving Mars community

2:54
Dan Szymborski: I think still

2:54
Ben: Is Ruiz/Camargo sufficient for Braves at 3B, or do you see them going after Frazier or Moustakas?

2:54
Dan Szymborski: I mean it’s not *good* but I think answering the question is of more value to the Braves than 2018 wins

2:55
hscer: surely Carson has no longer “just” published his book. why do you tacitly endorse such deception?

2:55
Dan Szymborski: In the context of eons he just did

2:55
Commodore Pork Biscuit: People seem to have gotten wise to the municipal stadium scam, but still seem to be stuck in a “greedy players” mentality over free agent contracts.  How does that perception change?

2:55
Dan Szymborski: It doesn’t

2:55
Chris R: Do you think it would be smart for a non-QO FA like Darvish or JD to take a one-year deal to wait until more spending happens next offseason? Or is that way too much of a gamble for them being in the top of the FA class?

2:55
Dan Szymborski: Not in this case.

2:55
Dan Szymborski: There are some damn good free agents next year

2:56
Dan Szymborski: I think Darvish will get his money

2:56
Dan Szymborski: And for Martinez, time really isn’t his friend

2:56
caesar_solid: heat death of the universe. friend or foe?

2:56
Dan Szymborski: Friend.  It seems poetic to end with nothing

2:56
john s: if Eric Hosmer signs with the Padres, will you make a WWF character for him on your video game system?

2:56
Dan Szymborski: I like Myers because I can give him his old hair

2:56
Colin: With the slow offseason, do you believe that the Braves should look at Lorenzo Cain? Would this be the best defensive outfield in the league?

2:56
Dan Szymborski: Don’t think it’s a great fit

2:56
Commodore Pork Biscuit: Is there any specific rule about using a scarecrow at third base?

2:56
Dan Szymborski: I don’t believe so.

2:56
Dan Szymborski: As long as the scarecrow is old enough?

2:57
Kristaps: How many starts for Walker Buehler?

2:57
Dan Szymborski: 8?

2:57
Dan Szymborski: In MLB i assume

2:57
Lee: Will Erasmo Ramirez break camp in the M’s rotation?

2:57
Dan Szymborski: As the roster stands, he would

2:57
v2micca: Dan, I signed up for ESPN insider to read your articles.  And now they keep mailing me this crappy magazine every month.

2:58
Dan Szymborski: You can request digital only somewhere.  There are also organizations (though I forget names offhand) that will re-route your magazine to military stationed overseas

2:58
Tom: Any chance Tommy Pham outperforms his projection?

2:58
Dan Szymborski: Well, yeah.  They’re projections, I don’t actually have a time machine

2:58
Chuncey Wiggins: Comet makes your mouth turn green.

2:58
Bob Villar: Matt Olson > Ryon Healy?

2:59
Dan Szymborski: I think so

2:59
Billy: Permission to quote you for high school yearbook?

2:59
Dan Szymborski: Yes?

2:59
Chuncey Wiggins: Comet makes your mouth turn green/ Comet tastes like gasoline/ Comet makes you vomit/ So buy some comet and vomit today! – Come on today’s youths…at least have your reckless cleaning agent consumption accompanied with a jingle.

2:59
Tommy : The perfect fit for Cain is the San Francisco Giants. Do you see any possible way that he signs a 1 year “show me” deal?

2:59
Dan Szymborski: I think he’s too old to make that a good iea

2:59
Uncle Rico: Save the sandwich questions for Eno people!

2:59
Purgatory: Dan, I go back and forth  between valuing your opinions and being offput by how inflexible and pompous you are. What should I do?

3:00
Dan Szymborski: Who do I look like, Odysseus?  Pick which side costs you more sailors

3:00
CamdenWarehouse: Can you move to a different day, so I don’t have a conflict with your chats every other week?

3:00
Dan Szymborski: I CAN

3:00
CamdenWarehouse: How crazy of a first name starting with D would it have to get before you start wondering if the emails “mistakenly” coming to you are really someone messing with you?

3:00
Dan Szymborski: Demosthenes?

3:00
toki: Who threw harder Bob Feller or Nolan Ryan?

3:00
Dan Szymborski: Probably Ryan

3:01
Jkim: Would any team look at Seung Hwan Oh for 2 years/8m?

3:01
Dan Szymborski: They should

3:01
Re: Collusion: This feels like a information disparity – the owners have better information about the players (aging curves etc) than the players or their reps do.

Add that to a terrible round of CBAs taht put huge restrictions w/ the luxury tax – I don’t think this is collusion

3:01
Dan Szymborski: I can tell you that agencies have excellent sources too.

3:01
DY: Do you think Felipe Rivero can be an Andrew Miller-like, top 5 reliever over the next couple of years?

3:01
Dan Szymborski: Yes

3:01
DY: The Angels should sign Arrieta. Do you think they will?

3:02
Dan Szymborski: Not sure, but they absolutely should

3:02
Dan Szymborski: Didn’t I even give Arrieta to the Angels in my piece?

3:02
mrdog61: You are managing the Blue Jays (sorry) and Rockies (yay?). You will be very busy, but what does your starting OF look like for each?

3:02
Dan Szymborski: Do I get to make signings?

3:03
Dan Szymborski: I did!

3:03
Pad Squad: Thanks, Pad Squad’s Friend!….but no, that wasn’t what I was getting at. I don’t want the Pads to get Hosmer, I just want some fun speculation as to who they Should get. I like guys like Yelich, Josh Bell, Anthony Rendon.

3:03
Raul Gillette: What team most needs the marginal wins that could be provided by dipping aggressively into the FA market? Cardinals? Nationals?

3:03
Dan Szymborski: Rockies and Angels.

3:03
Dan Szymborski: Angels realize it, I believe.

3:03
Dan Szymborski: Rockies do not, I believe.

3:03
Roadhog: Why is Hoffman so much more popular for HOF voters than Wagner?

3:03
Dan Szymborski: COUNT TEH SAVES

3:03
Dan Szymborski: spelling error intentional

3:04
STiVo: I heard ZiPS funding got extended for 6 years in the shutdown deal.  Congrats!!

3:04
Pad Squad: Thanks, Pad Squad’s Friend!…but no, that wasn’t what I was getting at. I don’t want the Padres to get Hosmer, but I am looking for some fun speculation as to who they Should get in a year or two. I like Yelich, Josh Bell, Anthony Rendon.

3:04
mike sixel: hahahaha. You aren’t pompous or inflexible at all. do you get a lot of that stuff?

3:04
Dan Szymborski: I’m flexible, but I’m totally pompous

3:04
Dan Szymborski: One has to be realistic about their faults.

3:05
Dan Szymborski: I try to balance condescendence and self-deprecation.

3:05
Sleepy: When the A’s played Ryon Healy at 3B, it was the functional equivalent (defensively) of a scarecrow.

3:05
mrdog61: Matt Olson > Matt Chapman ?

3:05
Dan Szymborski: No

3:05
Not Bob Dole: Is it okay if I read your replies outloud in Norm MacDonald’s Bob Dole voice

3:05
Dan Szymborski: Sure

3:05
Nathan: How much money will Holland get?

3:05
Dan Szymborski: Actually, it’s Greg Netherlands

3:06
Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll do worse than the QO on a yearly basis

3:06
Uncle Rico: It’s only a few weeks until Pitchers and Catchers report, surely there will be an influx of FA signings……or not?

3:06
Dan Szymborski: I think so, but I also thought we’d get January signings too

3:06
Tony Eusebio: How did other mega prospects (Harper, Bryant, Correa, etc) first ZIPS projections compare to Acuna? Is his unpredecented for a prospect that age?

3:06
Dan Szymborski: Not unprecedented (Trout and Bryant are two of the rare players with projections like that)

3:06
Dan Szymborski: But he’s in that top tier of unusually good projections

3:06
hscer: teh is usually intentional, hte a typo. i’ve actually never seen hte

3:07
Chuncey Wiggins: Hypothetically speaking, is there a hypothetical question you wouldn’t answer?

3:07
Dan Szymborski: There are many.

3:07
Dan Szymborski: I stay away from questions of politics, religion, or gender/race.

3:07
Dan Szymborski: Things that I was told in confidence and off-the-record.

3:09
Dan Szymborski: My various hands-off data dealings; while I’m not in any advisory role anywhere (insurmountable conflict of interest), I have never revealed anything I found out from this avenue when not-acting as a reporter.

3:09
mike sixel: made me laugh out loud, thanks!

3:09
Bevis: Keith Law > Dan Szymborski

3:09
Dan Szymborski: I’m heavier than Keith

3:09
CamdenWarehouse: I suppose that’s better than Greg Netherregions

3:09
hscer: should’ve let the hypothetical hypothetical question go un-remarked on!

3:09
Dan Szymborski: That seems cruel

3:09
toki: How many cups of sugar does it take to get to the moon?

3:10
Dan Szymborski: Depends how it’s contained

3:10
Dan Szymborski: if it’s just loose, I think it impossible – wind will blow it away

3:10
CamdenWarehouse: and questions that if answer truthfully would result in complimenting Carson

3:10
EbenezerBatflip: Do you expect Devers to stay at 3B long term or move to 1B?

3:10
Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll stay

3:10
Dan Szymborski: As we are past one-o-clock, it’s time for me to mosey on out of here.

3:11
Dan Szymborski: Goodbye all, see you next week unless I die or you die.

3:11
Dan Szymborski: Individual yous, of course.  I’m way more likely to die than ALL of you.

3:12
Dan Szymborski: I like to say things like this because if something DOES happen, I get to go out on a “whoa, he predicted it!”

3:12
Dan Szymborski: And I’d try to live tweet it.  Having your last tweet be “things are getting hazy but I think I hear the ambulance” is way better than someone tweeting about their pancakes they’re eating.

3:13
Dan Szymborski: As a reminder, you can read my work at ESPN.com, chats and projections here at FanGraphs, and at DSzymborski on Twitter.

We hoped you liked reading Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 1/24/18 by Carson Cistulli!

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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Nolan9311
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Nolan9311

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