Let’s Find a Home for Mike Moustakas
In this slowest of markets, one of the players who might be most adversely affected is Mike Moustakas.
Some thought it was possible, as the offseason began, that Moustakas might receive a $100-million deal this winter. Not only was he a third baseman who’d just authored a 38-homer season, but he was also still on the right side of 30. Of course, that sort of deal hasn’t emerged. It seems increasingly unlikely to emerge with each day.
Dave predicted a five-year, $95-million pact for Moustakas. The crowd predicted a five-year deal, as well, for $10 million fewer overall. Neither option seems probable at the moment: no free agent to date has secured more than a three-year contract, and there hasn’t been much reported interested in Moustakas.
Mark Feinsand examined the market for Moustakas for MLB.com at the end of last week:
According to a source, teams expressed early interest in Moustakas but had second thoughts after hearing his asking price. The Angels had been frequently tagged as a potential destination for Moustakas, but Los Angeles moved quickly (well, quickly for this market, anyway) and signed Zack Cozart to a three-year, $38-million contract to fill its hole at third base.
“He’s a solid player, but not a star,” one general manager said. “When you see what Bruce got from the Mets, it’s hard to see Moustakas getting more than that.”
Both Bruce and Cozart received three-year deals for roughly $40 million this offseason. Cozart appeared just after Moustakas in our free-agent rankings, suggesting that he might serve as a reasonable comp for the former Royal. So even with relative youth on his side, the precedent for Moustakas isn’t great.
That said, he’s a solid regular. He’ll end up somewhere this offseason. Let’s try to find out where.
Among the projected contending clubs that have a remaining third-base need, there isn’t an abundance of natural fits. He probably would not provide enough of an upgrade for the Brewers (1.8 projected WAR from third base) or Mets (1.9) for either team to consider a multi-year deal that pays more than eight figures guaranteed per annum. We’re projecting Moustakas to produce 2.8 WAR, 30 homers and a 113 wRC+ in 2018.
In a vacuum, the Yankees make sense due to the club’s lack of a “proven” third baseman. Their park is also the ideal environment for a pull-happy, fly-balling left-handed hitter.
Consider: Moustakas ranked 11th in total line drives and fly balls hit to his pull side (304) last year and 33rd in HR/FB to the pull side last season (49.2%) last season. And that was despite playing his home games at Kauffman Stadium.
Moustakas is a highly unusual player in that he has a higher road wRC+ (97) for his career than home (95). That was once again the case last season, when he posted a 132 wRC+ on the road, compared to a 94 mark at home. His road wRC+ 31st in baseball.
A change of ballpark environments could help Moustakas more than most players.
According to the ballpark factor splits at Baseball Prospectus, the top home-run ballpark factor for left-handed batters was Yankee Stadium (124), which probably doesn’t surprise anyone. Kansas City’s left-handed, home-run factor (99) ranked 35th among 60 splits.
But the Yankees will soon probably have to shuffle their infield around to accommodate Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres. Also, there’s the issue of the current CBA, which renders a deal with New York improbable. New York seems determined to remain below the luxury-tax threshold and reset their tax-paying status. They have about $20 million in payroll space with which to work. Not only are they trying to stay under a more punitive tax, but a player like Moustakas, who declined the qualifying offer, would cost the Yankees both their second- and fifth-round pick for signing him.
If Moustakas is still a free agent after spring-training camps begin, maybe he could begin to look at a short-term deal, try to post a monster year in Yankee Stadium, and return to the market. That’s a lot of ifs and maybes, though.
While the Yankees are an unlikely match, there are other favorable environments, including the most obvious fit: Atlanta.
The Braves have a glaring void at third and money to spend. They are projected to finish last in third-base WAR (0.5). Craig Edwards made the case that the Braves ought to be aggressive in this market, also noting that Moustakas would fit well. The Braves could be a sleeeper team in 2018. Not only does the team have a need, but the park would be an upgrade for Moustakas’ batted-ball profile. SunTrust’s left-handed split ranked 12th (108) last season for home runs. Earlier in the offseason, the Angels had a glaring third-base need but filled it with Cozart.
If the Braves are uninterested, it’s unclear where Moustakas might fit. One club that has the payroll space and could front load a deal — as they have with the free agents this season — is the Phillies.
Based upon the last two seasons, Maikel Franco does not look like the answer at third base, and Citizens Bank Park was the best home-run environment for left-handed hitters outside of the Bronx last season. Philadelphia’s ballpark home-run factor ranked third overall for lefties (118) — and second for right-handed batters — last season, according to BP.
While the Phillies might not have real ambitions to contend until 2019, Moustakas is young enough where he could be a viable part of contending teams in 2019 and beyond. The Phillies do not seem like a probable fit, but Moustakas is approaching the point in the offseason when he might become a value and teams revisit him.
We’re in a strange place. It’s never been more difficult for a 29-year-old coming off a 38-homer season — one who can play an adequate hot corner, as well — to find a home.
A Cleveland native, FanGraphs writer Travis Sawchik is the author of the New York Times bestselling book, Big Data Baseball. He also contributes to The Athletic Cleveland, and has written for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, among other outlets. Follow him on Twitter @Travis_Sawchik.
Should be Queens, probably will be the Bronx.
Does anyone really need a .305 career OBP in their lineup?
Despite a lackluster OBP, he’s still been an above-average hitter for three years. Looking only at his career numbers pretty blatantly ignores the abrupt change in his production between 2014 and 2015, after which he posted much more power, slightly better contact and walk rates.
If the market causes him to take a cheap (and short) deal, this sounds like a good thing for the signing team.
Walk rates don’t matter.
OBP matters. The Mouse sucks. If you can’t post an OBP above .330 I don’t want you in my lineup. I’m not going to look at anything else if you can’t meet that minimum standard.
He isn’t worth more than a $2 million one year contract. It’s pitiful that fact isn’t obvious.
You don’t have a lineup, unless you’re telling us about your OOTP career or something.
You’ve got awfully strong statistical opinions for someone who doesn’t understand linear weights.
I understand baseball and “linear weights” have nothing to do with that.
If six teams tanking start a 3B with a .220 OBP that’s going to knock down the average quite a lot isn’t it?
Did the Astros win the Series by looking at what the averages were and then putting someone a tick above that number at each position.?
Man up and recognize the egregious error of your thinking.
1) when did a career .303 OBP becomes .220?
2) I think we found someone who believes Moneyball as gospel
3) this guy has had flawed arguments in every post on this article. And he wants others to own up for correct thinking?
Hahha that’s hilarious.
Moose’s last 3 years OBP looks like Reddick’s prior 3 years OBP last January.
Oh crap, this is FreeAEC again. He’s used this name on mlbtraderumors.
It gets better. He’s got a bunch of different accounts that he uses to upvote his posts and downvote everyone who disagrees with him (refresh the page a few times to see him at work, and take a look at the ownership poll to see his other handiwork).
Who wants to be the one to email Fangraphs?
The internet never forgets, in case anyone’s missing the context: http://articles.latimes.com/1995-11-02/local/me-63908_1_hate-crimes
Oh, I was wondering what was going on. Who has time for that? What a loser.
What’s going on here? The bad posts are upvoted, and the posts that make sense are downvoted into oblivion.
It’s one troll with a lot of time and no friends.
I’m enjoying this. It’s Bizarro Fangraphs!
2012-2014: .289
2015-2017: .329
Moustakas one a one-year deal to the Yankees makes a lot of sense for the Yankees, but I can’t see Moustakas taking that deal.
I think for most teams, the question is: why sign Moustakas now when you can wait until next year and go for Manny Machado or Josh Donaldson?
Given what we’ve been reading about Machado’s desire to play shortstop this offseason, I don’t think you should hold a spot open at third for him. And teams probably won’t see that as a problem. There are only a few teams that would be turned off by that (Dodgers, Astros, Cleveland, maybe Nationals and Angels…and only half those teams need a third baseman anyway).
Heck, why would any team sign Moustakas if they could get Todd Frazier on a reasonable deal?
Because that team doesn’t believe the metrics on baserunning and defense, where Todd Frazier has a big advantage.
I sometimes think people don’t know that Todd Frazier actually put up more WAR last year than Moustakas in about the same number of PAs, and is projected for only slightly less this upcoming year.
Yeah, I didn’t know that. Good knowledge drop.
And Frazier doesn’t have the QO attached. It’s touched on the article above and I think it’s an important point.
Signing a QO player to a 1-year deal means that whatever value you attach to those two picks (plus, I believe, some international pool money – money that’s worth more than $1:$1 given its scarcity) has to be amortized over that lone year.
If you believe something like this (https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/the-net-value-of-draft-picks/), then that 2nd round pick alone could be worth ~$10M in surplus value.
It’s one thing to spread that out over 5-7 years for a superstar. It’s something else altogether to tack that on to a 1 year rental.
Unless I’m mistaken, the Braves would only be giving up their 4th round pick for signing Moose, thanks to the loss of their 3rd round pick because Coppy likes to tell bad jokes.
Good point.
Also, it used to be possible for teams to think that they’d recoup the draft pick after a 1-year pillow contract by QO’ing the player again. Now that’s not part of the equation since a player can only be QO’d once during his career.
Or if Josh Harrison is available for a reasonable cost in a trade, especially for a team like the Yankees.
If one of Torres or Andjuar doesn’t look to be ready, then slot in Harrison and let one of those guys develop in the minors. If they’re both ready, then Harrison is depth at both 3B and 2B and also SS (via the proxy of Torres playing at SS).
I agree with that. I’ll also add that there looks to be a good chance that one or more of Machado, Donaldson, and Beltre will be available at the trade deadline, which makes it even tougher to justify paying up for Moustakas.
The in-season trade possibility is less of a factor for the Yankees if we assume that both the Orioles and Blue Jays won’t want to trade a star rental player to the Yankees, but I do think it’s part of the calculation for a team such as the Cardinals.
Somewhat counter-intuitively, I think it could have actually benefited Moustakas to hit FA the same year as Donaldson and Machado because then Moustakas could be a fallback option for a team that tried to sign one of those players but didn’t succeed.
This is terrible logic.
Why does anybody buy a Kia when BMW is available?
Because BMW is at least twice as expensive.
I think that it’s OK logic, as long as we’re careful to assume that it doesn’t apply to every team.
For three teams that appear to make some sense for Moustakas in a vacuum, however – Yankees, Phillies, and Cardinals – it’s reasonable to think that the soon to come availability of Donaldson and Machado is a factor when thinking about Moustakas on a 3 to 5 year contract at $15 to $20 million AAV.
Yes, it is absolutely a factor for ‘some’ teams.
Definitely not for ‘most’ teams as 113CandleMagic put it.
Even in your example, I’m not sure that the Cardinals can afford Machado.
Perhaps it’s semantics, but I’d agree that the Cardinals are more likely to meet Donaldson’s overall contractual terms than Machado’s.
The Cardinals really could afford either, though, because they’re not pushing what should be their payroll limit (based on revenue ranking) and have plenty of contracts rolling off over the next several years plus enough good (but not great) prospects that they have cost-controlled internal options to fill in a lineup and roster.
My personal view, however, is that the Cardinals will be more inclined to get comfortable with the risk/reward of a Donaldson deal, which will probably pay him at a healthy AAV for 5-6 years, than the risk/reward of a Machado deal that will likely be something like a 10-year deal at a healthy AAV with one or more player opt outs less than 5 years into the deal. They did push aggressively for Stanton with the latter structure, but I think that was based on a lack of other alternatives.
1) You don’t have the cash
2) Only 2 of those guys, and more than 2 teams with that cash
Speaking of no one caring to pay all that much for 38 homers in 2017…
Chris Carter hit 41 HRs in 2016, which led the NL, and the next season he got non-tendered, signed to a crappy FA deal to be a platoon 1B, was soon sent to the minors, and is now a minor league FA.
True, but he was more of a mash or miss guy, whereas Moustakas is much more of a guarantee to hit above the Mendoza line. Still, I’d like to think someone would take a chance on Carter’s big power as at least a platoon bat or someone off the bench.
Moustakas has a career wRC+ of 96. Carter’s is 109.
Carter is also a DH (or a terrible 1B).
In addition to the positional difference, it is important to take into consideration the swing/approach changes that Moose made prior to 2015. He has had a 118 wRC+ since then.
Right-handed-1B-only platoon guys aren’t worth all that much…
It’s altogether possible that there’s just not much of a market for him–particularly with that low OBA. Even on a one year deal (and particularly this one year) I just can’t see the Yankees giving up the draft picks and the payroll space to someone with Moose’s profile.
Moose isn’t the type of player you stretch for.
It would be a huge Moustake to sign him to a big deal.
I don’t caribou what you think.
Come on guys, we don’t need jokes of this elk.
Oh deer, not this shit again.
What about another possible landing spot for the Moose: right back in KC?
I happen to think, as a KC resident, that if his asking price comes down and Hosmer signs somewhere else, he could end up back here. However, KC has Hosmer as their #1 priority FA. With KC clearly rebuilding I think KC should just punt on all of the former KC FAs.
For all that we talk about the analytical front office monoculture and extreme rebuilds being two big trends that suppress free agent demand, the Padres and Royals apparently competing for Hosmer around the 7 year / $130 to $140 million level is a decided outlier on both of those.
KC likely the only destination that makes sense, only a poor front office is likely to bite.
Do ‘pick-tied’ free agents lose their pick compensation if they remain unsigned into the start of the season and then sign? I believe they do- if so, perhaps the non-KC teams would hold out on Moustakas until the season begins. With no pick attached, he could even fetch a solid AAV despite signing so late- 3/60 wouldn’t even be underwater.
With Frazier on the market and the pick involved, however, it would be strange to see a 4-5 year deal seeming that he projects to be below average by then.
QO’d free agents eventually lose the draft pick penalty and compensation, but it takes longer than the start of the season. They need to wait until after the Rule 4 draft in early June.
Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales both did basically that in 2014. Drew waited until late May and re-signed with Boston (I think a couple weeks before the Rule 4 draft, which didn’t really matter to Boston since they had QO’d him). Morales signed with the Twins after the draft.
I think that both teams and players would be hesitant to repeat that experience, because Morales and Drew both hit really poorly in 2014, noticeably worse than in either 2013 or 2015.
Dave Cameron analyzed this situation well back in November in concluding that “Third Base Looks Like A Buyers Market”.
Dave was focused on the trade market more than free agents, and the market has moved some since then with (1) the Yankees trading both Headley and Castro, losing a 3B and opening up 2B for Torres, (2) the Angels filling their 3B need with Cozart, and (3) the Giants trading for Longoria (though Longoria’s potential availability in a trade was one of Dave’s points). His overall point holds up very well, though: lots of available, or likely to soon to be available, 3B options without many logical landing spots for them among contenders.
I still think a good approach for the Twins would be to, instead of spending big money on a starter, use Sano+ as trade bait for one and then sign a Frazier or Moustakas for less money.
Improved defense, improved rotation, less money spent, probably about a wash offensively.
“Also, there’s the issue of the current CBA, which renders a deal with New York improbable. New York seems determined to remain below the luxury-tax threshold and reset their tax-paying status.”
It’s overly simplistic IMO to attribute the Yankees’ desire to reset tax penalties to the current CBA. The basic structure that encourages resetting has been in place since the 2002 CBA: a luxury tax rate that escalates annually over 3 or 4 years for teams that are repeatedly over the tax line. The details of rates have varied a bit over the different CBA’s, but the luxury tax structure has always had an incentive for a 1-year reset.
It is true that the luxury taxpayers being treated worse in the QO system is new. It’s also true that the surtax for amounts in excess of $20 million over the tax line, with a higher surtax kicking in for in excess of $40 million over, is also new.
So the QO and surtaxes are both new incentives to get under the tax, at least at the margin, but let’s not forget that the Yankees talked a lot about getting under the tax line in the offseason between 2013 and 2014 but ultimately decided to make a big splash on free agents instead (Ellsbury, McCann, Tanaka, Beltran).
One difference this time is the new CBA, but an even bigger one IMO is just how much minimum salary talent the Yankees have on their roster, highlighted by Judge, Severino, and Sanchez. Add to that minimum salary talent a couple other useful minimum salary players (Montgomery and Bird), plus Torres and Andujar as prospects expected to contribute. Add to that some other prospects in the upper minors who can help the 2018 team as injury depth or trade chips.
In short, a huge difference for 2018 is that the Yankees can project to be really good while also staying under the luxury tax line and resetting penalties. And, if the Yankees can’t reset while being projected to get just under 20 WAR from 7 minimum salary players, and with only one big contract on the books that looks like negative surplus value for 2018 (Ellsbury), then when could they ever hope to reset? And, BTW, they’ll also be resetting just before the most talented FA class in several years.
The Yankees have shown a willingness to pay luxury tax. They have deep pockets. What’s changed, though, is the fact that the penalties from the most recent CBA are much harsher for repeat offenders than previously. Even the Yankees can’t pay crazy taxes on spending.
The new CBA’s rules provide a ton of incentive for teams to slide under the tax every few years, when there never was that incentive previously. The Yankees see right now as the proper time to do so, right as the new CBA kicks in, they have the financial ability to get under and still be good, and they can prepare to go over next offseason.
Essentially, what you argue, except that they’re ding that DUE to the CBA, not independent of it.
How are the repeat penalties much harsher than in the prior CBA?
Here is how the repeat luxury taxes stacked up in the prior CBA, by consecutive years over the tax:
17.5% / 30% / 40% / 50%, so the rate steps up to 50% for 4 or more consecutive years
Here’s the current CBA:
20% / 30% / 50%, so the rate steps up to 50% for 3 or more years
Under the prior CBA, a team dipping under for one year and then stepping back up to spending a consistent amount $0 to $20 million over the tax line actually saved more money from the one year dipping under the tax line than in the current CBA.
Mous wasn’t even an option for the Braves due to having loss of a draft pick attached to him. However, at some price he makes sense.
If his price really drops down to 3/40 as the quoted GM suggests, and he is willing to take a back loaded deal structured like 6/17/17, I have a hard time seeing how the Braves can justify passing on him, only to enter the crazy FA bidding next off season.
Mous to the Braves is a bad fit imo, he simply isn’t that good, consider his company-
* Wilmer Flores and Maikel Franco have roughly the same 2019 projection as Moustakas (2.2 WAR).
* Eduardo Nunez has been far better (4.8 WAR) than Moustakas in the past 2 seasons (2.9 WAR).
* Matt Duffy has a significantly better WAR/600.
* Yangervis Solarte (2.1) roughly matches Moustakas (2.2) in WAR/600.
* Josh Harrison (2.5 WAR/600) has been much better than Moustakas.
* Martin Prado has been better than Moustakas over the past 2 seasons (+0.5), and much better over the past 3-4 years.
* Derek Dietrich (3.5) has been substantially better the past 2 seasons.
* Luis Valbuena has roughly matched Moustakas (2.8 to 2.9) the past 2 seasons, and has posted a better WAR/600 (2.4 to 2.2) since Moustakas debuted in 2011.
There aren’t many regular 3B who have kept jobs the past 2-4 years who are notably worse than Moustakas.
IMO the Braves would be much better off to try to acquire JD Davis from Houston.
https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=16219&position=3B
The Braves project at 2 WAR or better for every spot other than RF and 3B. But 2018 is unlikely to be their year, with only 7 teams having a lower projection than their 74 wins. Both the bullpen and rotation are 3 WAR short or so of being competitive, and Freeman’s 4 WAR is the best projection among position players. The Braves are a fairly classic ‘1 year away’ club with their best projected SP being a rookie, and 2 of their best projected position players having only 244 combined PAs.
Moustakas turns 30 this year, and is projected for 2.7 WAR. He projects for 2.2 WAR next year and thereafter projects as a below average regular. He projects to be less than 1.0 WAR better than Rio Ruiz by 2019- i.e. not a large upgrade. By no means am I saying Ruiz is the answer- rather, Moustakas is not.
With 1B Freeman, CF Inciarte, 2B Albies, LF Acuna, SS Swanson – the Braves only have 3B, RF, and maybe C to upgrade (though Flowers was excellent with framing last year). Nearly all their position playing talent is young, and guys like Riley, Ruiz & Demerite are likely to provide the Braves with 1-1.5 WAR/600 production at 3B in coming years. Surely Atlanta will keep their powder dry for a big move- a Yelich type 4-5 WAR player who isn’t yet declining- that can help them project in the high 80s for 2019 and beyond, rather that giving themselves a slightly higher floor this year but a lower ceiling in the years following.
You can’t make comments about the past two seasons without noting that Moustakas was hurt most of 2016.
Where does this idea that the Braves have money to spend come from? They just added Gonzalez’ and Kazmir’s bad contracts, severely limiting the amount of room they have in their 2018 payroll, so that they could free up payroll for 2019.
And the front office has stated publicly that they don’t want to block Austin Riley, who has a good shot at being ready for MLB in 2019.
So, this article, and Craig Edwards’ article from last week just don’t make sense.
It’s highly unlikely that the Braves will contend in 2018. If they do, it’s because many of their prospects reach the majors early and produce early, not because they are going to spend on free agents. The braves are wise to wait another year to see how their prospects develop (and to see what holes remain) before they spend heavily (if needed) on free agents.
Agreed, it makes zero sense for the Braves to add substantial payroll unless they acquire a big non-declining talent.
Que Travis & Craig’s ‘Why Every Team Must Have Pablo Alvarez’ tomorrow.
bah, joke ruined, pedro.
KC should just offer everyone 1 year deals
I’ll take one.
Is it guaranteed or a minor-league deal? Because I would never make the team out of Spring Training on a minor league deal, but when they cut me on Day 3 of the regular season I’d be happy to pocket the rest of the salary.
Yankees seem logical.
Pillow contract,short porch in RF.
Moose,could have another great year,and maybe win a 2nd ring.
That would be $12-16m plus a pick for a 1 WAR upgrade- extremely poor value.
I’m super curious to see what level of engagement there was between the Angels and Moose prior to Cozart. I have to assume that they talked. I wonder if the Angels would have preferred Moose or if they were going to avoid him – even at a more modest price. I’ve seen some folks suggest that Cozart was the fallback option. I’m starting to think that he was their first choice.
My best guess is that the Angels find Cozart’s positional versatility to be a plus. Cozart can play SS (and I assume 2B). So, for injury depth or just rest days, Cozart can move to one of those positions with Valbuena playing 3B, which is something that the Angels don’t get from Moustakas.
Admitted caveat: maybe the Angels have better back-up options than I realize for SS or 2B. I’m not that familiar with their farm system, so I’m proceeding more on commentators like FG writers praising moves such as Kinsler for filling out what otherwise looked to be a stars and scrubs roster.
Despite a career year, his career wRC+ is less than 100
I think the best home for him would be in Japan
His last 3 is significantly better than his first 4.
So are everyone’s, thanks to the new ball.
Mike Moustakas must have been using the new ball since 2015. Talk about early adapters!
The Phillies aren’t dumb enough to sign Moustakas.
Franco is fairly similar- he projects for 2.0 WAR, Moustakas projects for 2.7.
The author can say that it’s clear Franco isn’t the answer- but that’s simply going against the projections- he projects as a cheap, cost-controlled average regular. Franco simply put up a .234 BABIP last season leading to awful numbers, just as Moustakas put up a .220 BABIP in 2014 and again .214 in 2016. Franco will be 25.5 at the start of the season, Moustakas 29.5.
No way does Philly give up a pick, plus 3-4 years at 12-18M AAV to pick up 0.7 WAR for next season only. After 2018, Franco and Moustakas both project to be a touch better than 2.0 WAR players in 2019, and thereafter Franco projects better.
So the Phililes would be spending big and losing a pick to shift 2019-2021 WAR into this season, and only gaining a bit more than a half win this season for the effort.
Just another zany but absurd suggestion in the Craig and Travis ‘every article encouraging FA spending’ series.
Although I do agree that Phillies will and should give Franco another year to figure it out, most people would take the under on his wrc+ 104 war 2.0 projection in a heartbeat.
His last three seasons have been
335 PA wrc+ 129 war 1.5
630 PA wrc+ 91 war 1.4
623 PA wrc+ 76 war -0.5
If I squint really hard, I can kind of see where that projection is coming from, but I don’t buy it.
Moustakas isn’t a significant upgrade over Asdrubal Cabrera when given the context that the Mets barely have any room left in their budget and are looking for a 2B (probably Nunez), and maybe another SP or RP. Cabrera’s best defensive position was 3B last year and it’s really not worth moving him to 2B to accommodate a guy who isn’t going to produce more than say Nunez would at the empty 2B slot.
The Mets budget is RICO level racketeering fraud.