2018 ZiPS Projections – Los Angeles Dodgers

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
Dodger field players recorded the second-most WAR collectively in the majors this past season, and all but one (Chase Utley) of the club’s top-13 players from 2017 remains under contract for 2018. Unsurprisingly, the projections below are almost uniformly strong.

Both first baseman Cody Bellinger (607 PA, 4.4 zWAR) and shortstop Corey Seager (666, 5.7) remain subject to a Young Driver Surcharge when patronizing any of this country’s major rental-car providers. When not busy securing dependable transportation at a competitive rate, however, they occupy their time creating runs as professional ballplayers. ZiPS calls for that pair to produce roughly 10 wins just between the two of them in 2018.

If one is intent on identifying a weakness — or at least an uncertainty — within the depth chart, then left field appears to be the best candidate. Joc Pederson (475, 2.4) was optioned to Triple-A in mid-August and absent from much of the postseason, raising some questions about his job security with the present iteration of the club. Even he is forecast to produce wins at an above-average rate, however.

Pitchers
The Dodgers’ pitching staff was also one of the best in the majors this past season. As with the club’s hitting cohort, most of the principal actors from the NL championship team return in 2018. Clayton Kershaw (179.0 IP, 5.8 zWAR), unsurprisingly, receives the top projection, while three other starters — Rich Hill (115.2, 2.4), Kenta Maeda (150.2, 3.0), and Alex Wood (144.1, 2.6) — are forecast to record two or more wins. After that foursome is a surfeit of useful, if not wholly dependable, options, of which Hyun-Jin Ryu (112.2, 1.3) appears most likely to break camp as part of the rotation.

Only 12 relievers in the majors recorded two or more wins this past season. It was the same thing in 2016. In 2015, only nine of them reached the two-win threshold. All of which is to say that, while the projected win total for Kenley Jansen (63.0 IP, 55 ERA-, 2.2 zWAR) might appear modest, it’s actually pretty aggressive. The mean estimate for Jansen’s 2018 season places him among the top 10 or so pitchers by observed result. That’s impressive, which is why this entire paragraph about the Dodger bullpen is dedicated exclusively to Kenley Jansen.

Bench/Prospects
Whether it’s Austin Barnes (361 PA, 1.9 zWAR) or Yasmani Grandal (452, 2.8) who ultimately records more playing time for the Dodgers in 2018, the club is nearly certain to receive one of the league’s top contributions from a back-up catcher, as well. In the outfield, both Andrew Toles (363, 1.0) and Alex Verdugo (559, 0.9) profile as strong depth options; as left-handed batters, however, neither is a candidate to work in a platoon with Joc Pederson. Kiké Hernandez (344, 0.8) and minor leaguer Tim Locastro (550, 0.8) are both right-handed batters who’ve played all over the diamond.

Right-hander Trevor Oaks (141.0 IP, 1.8 zWAR) is absent from the top-10 lists published both by Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus this offseason; nevertheless, he receives the top WAR projection among those pitchers omitted from the depth-chart image below. Walker Buehler (93.2, 1.3), meanwhile, appears at the top of both those prospects lists. He’s also great and will suffice.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Dodgers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.