Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 12/22/17

9:03

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:03

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:03

Jeff Sullivan: My last Friday baseball chat for a while!

9:03

ToMcN: Hey Jeff! what’s the hold up with Otani being added to the player pages/projections?

9:04

Jeff Sullivan: We have an Ohtani player page and projection now. I added him to the Angels’ depth chart about an hour ago but those can take a little while to update on the public-facing side

9:05

Jeff Sullivan: Here’s the player page: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=19755&position=P

9:05

Jeff Sullivan: 3.48 ERA as a pitcher, 110 wRC+ as a hitter

9:06

Jeff Sullivan: In cases like this it’s not really up to us — we need to wait for a player ID from Baseball Info Solutions, and we need to wait for a projection from Steamer

9:06

Bored Brad : Top five Christmas songs? Go…

9:06

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t like Christmas songs

9:06

Jimmy Neutron: Does AJ Reed have a shot at the Astros DH spot?

9:07

Jeff Sullivan: Not much of one, not out of the gate

9:07

Jeff Sullivan: Evan Gattis is still an above-average hitter and the Astros haven’t forgotten about Reed’s 2016 cup of coffee

9:07

antony: Jeff in your opinion, which team is more likely to sign Yu Darvish?

9:07

Jeff Sullivan: Cubs

9:08

Terry’s Sarape: Next move for the Mets?

9:08

Jeff Sullivan: Private meetings with members of the front office pissed off over the return of Omar Minaya

9:09

Jeff Sullivan: And then probably acquiring a second-tier second baseman

9:10

Jack: Doesn’t the Evan Longoria trade kind of feel like the Troy Tulowitzki trade? Difficult to move someone who’s meant so much to a franchise, but both teams saw a declining player about to get 10-and-5 rights and felt they had to move that contract while they still could. Rockies fans were furious and heartbroken, like Rays fans are now, but I don’t think too many of them are lamenting that trade anymore.

9:10

Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, losing icons as they decline is generally worse in the short-term than in the long-term. No one ever actually *wants* to see their favorite players struggle for years at a time as they play in their mid-30s

9:11

Jeff Sullivan: Now, in the *longer*-term, it would be great to be able to say that someone like Longoria was a lifetime Ray. But as long as the Rays operate with such a low budget, they basically had to do this

9:11

Hunky Dory: Dear Jeff, being a Mets fan makes one want to bang one’s head against the wall.  Yours truly, HD

9:11

Jeff Sullivan: I’ll trade you the Mariners

9:12

Jeff Sullivan: The true thing that Mets fans believe is that the Mets are annoying. The false thing that Mets fans believe is that they’re somehow unique in that regard

9:12

Tim Salmon’s Dad: In a world where you can reference only one projection system, you would choose…

9:13

Jeff Sullivan: There’s basically no meaningful difference between any of the major ones

9:13

Jeff Sullivan: Which is why I’m perfectly content with our 50/50 Steamer/ZiPS split

9:14

Bobby Evans: Help me Jeff, don’t let me sign another aging lefty OF.  Should I just grab Dyson or Maybin or maybe trade for Lagares, it’s still about pitching and defense right?

9:14

Jeff Sullivan: Dyson as a Giant feels pretty obvious. If they want to trade for Billy Hamilton, they could make it all easier on themselves

9:15

Juan: Has anyone looked it if young players develop better on good teams than they do on bad teams?

9:15

Jeff Sullivan: I think Russell Carleton tried to look at this once a few years ago at Baseball Prospectus, but I have no idea how to track that link down

9:16

Tim: A cool note from the Evan Longoria trade was that Christian Arroyo is from the Tampa Bay area, and said he grew up a Rays fan and that Longoria was his favorite player. How old does it make you feel that there are now MLB players who grew up cheering for a team that didn’t exist until 1998 and idolizing a player who didn’t debut until 2008?

9:16

Jeff Sullivan: Doesn’t make me feel any older than the fact that I’ve lost most of my own personal ambition

9:16

Jeff Sullivan: Having ambition is a young person’s game

9:16

Jeff Sullivan: Growing older is all about settling

9:17

Jason: What can we expect from Moncada over a full season?  Is 30-30 realistic?

9:17

Jeff Sullivan: Probably not as soon as 2018, but perhaps as soon as 2019

9:17

Jeff Sullivan: Currently projected at 19/20

9:18

Questions?: Are the Phillies preparing to keep Hoskins in the OF long term  or is this a plan to trade Santana at the deadline for some prospects?

9:18

Jeff Sullivan: My understanding is that Santana kind of fell in their lap and they couldn’t turn down the terms. At this point it’s all about just having options. Now they can make a trade, or just rotate like five players through four spots

9:19

ToMcN: Do you think Adam Eaton is a top 5 LFer by WAR next year?

9:20

Jeff Sullivan: Sure, I can see that, although in part it’s because left field for a few other teams isn’t occupied by one set player. Like, the Yankees are going to look good in left field, but they’re going to have a player rotation

9:20

Kirk: Jeff, I have never gotten to root for a playoff team as a fan. Will I ever get to? (rockies fan until ’05 and now a mariners fan)

9:20

Jeff Sullivan: I guarantee it!

9:21

Matty P: favorite random current baseball player?

9:21

Jeff Sullivan: Dennis Sarfate

9:21

Kirk: Jeff, would the Mariners top prospect be in any other team’s top 5?

9:21

Jeff Sullivan: Probably at least the Marlins’ top 5

9:22

Jeff Sullivan: But be wary of what you hear from Mariners social media, or the Dipoto podcast. They have a vested interest in pushing their own propaganda that understates how barren the farm system actually is

9:23

toki: With the asking price for Cole will the Yankees be requesting a 72hr window as part of negotiations?

9:23

Jeff Sullivan: Nah, not with two years left and a Boras client

9:23

v2micca: The Braves have made moves to clear payroll for the 2019 Free Agent class.  But, will it really make that much of a difference?  Do you see ATL outbidding the LAA, CHI, PHI, or NYY for one of the bigger names?

9:24

Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s just about having the option. The Braves know more about their 2018 situation than their 2019 situation. No harm in paying extra money now when you know you’re going to suck

9:24

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: If there was a draft lottery for the protected picks in the first round, do you think teams would tank as hard?

9:25

Jeff Sullivan: Well, no, but I also don’t think tanking is all that motivated by getting higher draft picks. It’s more about shedding money and veterans for prospects who’re already playing

9:26

Millie: Phillies fan who loves Hoskins, but doesn’t a Hoskins for Archer deal make some sense?  3 to 4 years of Santana coincide nicely with an awesome Archer contract without stressing payroll.  Hoskins is likely at peak value.  Am I nuts?  My friends think I’m nuts!

9:27

Jeff Sullivan: I guess I just don’t see the point in exchanging major-league value for major-league value. Adding Archer makes them better, but losing Hoskins makes them worse. And while Archer could be there for four years, Hoskins is controlled for six

9:28

Thomas: Is Gerrit Cole for Clint Frazier and Chance Adams a good trade for both sides? Fair trade? Does it get done?

9:29

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it would be a horrible trade for the Pirates, but I think they could and should do better

9:29

Cards Fan in Austin : Does persistence pay or should we focus elsewhere besides Donaldson?

9:29

Jeff Sullivan: Front offices are able to entertain multiple ideas at once. They can try for Donaldson over and over while exploring other alternatives

9:30

Harry: RA Dickey intensively trains you in the art of the knuckleball. How long until you’re skilled enough to throw knuckleballs at any professional level? Thanks for chatting Jeff.

9:31

Jeff Sullivan: I’ll say one year. But I’d probably wash out pretty fast, because I don’t think my elbow could take so much repetitive stress at this point

9:31

Jeff Sullivan: Those might be knuckleballs, but they still require force. And when I throw fastballs now, a day later my arm hurts

9:32

Tom: Torres for Cole feels like too much to give up from the Yankees perspective, right?

9:32

Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t trade Gleyber Torres, full stop

9:33

Ryan: If you had to put a percentage on it, what are the chances Archie is closing in AZ?

9:33

Jeff Sullivan: Current hunch is that they like Bradley’s versatility too much. Boxberger and now Hirano are more of the classic one-inning guys, and they both have closing experience

9:33

Jeff Sullivan: So, 25%?

9:34

Mike: NYY and BOS rotations projected for the same WAR. Which do you prefer? Also why people saying Yankees need to trade for pitching but not Sox?

9:35

Jeff Sullivan: I give a slight edge to the Yankees because I just have trouble trusting David Price’s arm right now

9:35

Jeff Sullivan: In fairness, not long ago I had similar trouble trusting Masahiro Tanaka’s arm

9:35

Bort: Hello friend. Which owner do you think Scott Boras will use his Jedi mind tricks on in order to get them to sign Hosmer?

9:36

Jeff Sullivan: I feel like there’s about a 75% chance he goes to the Padres for something enormous

9:36

Kit: More realistic the Rays deal Archer around the deadline, or hold onto him?

9:36

Jeff Sullivan: The former

9:36

2-D: How heavily do you think the Dodgers will rely on Cingrani out of the pen? Do you believe in him as full inning type reliever?

9:37

Jeff Sullivan: I like him, but it’ll still be a job share in front of Jansen. Not sure you can totally trust Cingrani’s control yet

9:38

ToMcN: Do you see any of the teams talking about using a six man rotation utilizing their starters from the bullpen on their throw days regularly?

9:38

Jeff Sullivan: Nope. Added stress; defeats the whole purpose

9:38

Jeff Sullivan: Throwing in the bullpen isn’t the same as throwing in a game. The latter is more taxing

9:40

John S: do players draw a big league minimum salary just from being on the 40 man roster? or is that only applicable to the active roster?

9:40

Jeff Sullivan: Slightly outdated but still relevant information: http://www.sportslawblogger.com/baseball/salary-information/minor-leag…

9:40

Jeff Sullivan: Big-league minimums only go to the active-roster players

9:41

The Ghost of Stan Javier: Is there anything interesting about Zac Rosscup? Pretty solid spin rate and slider.

9:41

Jeff Sullivan: Career 35% strikeout rate in Triple-A

9:42

Jeff Sullivan: Almost certainly big-league capable, even if he’s just a lefty specialist type. Deserves a job

9:43

Sterling Malory Chris Archer: Last Friday baseball chat for a while? Please do tell!

9:43

Jeff Sullivan: Holidays + vacation

9:43

Jeff Sullivan: We try to take vacation in January so as to be least disruptive to work. I didn’t realize that, this year, baseball would conspire to make January the new December

9:44

Desperate, confused Marlins fan: The projections are gaudy on Calhoun (Willie), what say you about this?

9:44

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t have much trouble believing he could run a 111 wRC+

9:45

Jeff Sullivan: Contact skills and power are proven. The entire question is about his defense

9:45

Ross: As a Rays fan, I hate that it looks like they might be starting a rebuild. When you already have arguably a top-five farm system, and you have five top 100 prospects who will likely get to the big leagues at some point next year (Adames, Bauers, Honeywell, De Leon, now Arroyo), why are you about to tear it down and waste the controllable/affordable years of those players? Yes, the Rays have been mediocre the last few years, but it’s not like they’ve been all in and ignoring the farm system while failing to win. They’ve already spent the last few years building up a good system and are about to start seeing that in the big leagues. Their window should be about to open with most of their top prospects in the upper minors and about to graduate. I get why people think they can’t compete with the Yankees and Red Sox right now, but welcome to life in the AL East. You can’t just not bother trying when the Yankees and Red Sox are good. And they don’t even necessarily have to beat out NYY or BOS to make the playoffs

9:46

Jeff Sullivan: I’m not actually convinced the Rays are looking to rebuild

9:46

Jeff Sullivan: Trading away Evan Longoria isn’t a rebuilding move. Not at this point in Longoria’s career

9:47

Jeff Sullivan: I think the Rays know their roster isn’t bad, and their future outlook is reasonably promising. Even if they trade Archer, they’d be getting near-term value back. My expectation is that they’re willing to take a 2018 step back in order to look fairly good in 2019

9:48

The Ghost of Stan Javier: The Yankees throw more sliders than anyone else in the league several years running. Several players have joined their team and immediately thrown more. Anything to this?

9:48

Jeff Sullivan: The Yankees have intentionally moved to throw fewer and fewer fastballs. Something has to make up the difference

9:49

John Wick: Do you think the Brewers are taking the right approach this offseason by working the margins and letting the rebuild move along? Or do you think they’d be well-served by being more aggressive?

9:49

Jeff Sullivan: I think the Brewers could be a contender for Archer. They’d like to have another quality controllable starter. But there’s little sense in forcing something short-term, if it’s expensive. So much here hangs on how Jimmy Nelson comes back. If healthy, he is an ace

9:50

Thomas: Will Ohtani be added to Standings Projections then soon?

9:50

Jeff Sullivan: He is at least now included among the Angels starting pitchers http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=1

9:51

Jeff Sullivan: He’s not showing up yet among the hitters, even though I put him there on the back end of the depth charts. That’s probably just a site bug unique to Ohtani so I’ll have someone look into that post-chat

9:51

Jeff Sullivan: Angels projected 9th in team WAR http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Team

9:52

LPFan: Does ASG still hold appeal to MLB fans? From players’ perspective, it is usually honorable for them but hinders their in-season schedule. As a fan, I would rather my team players’ be 100% performing for my team than league team games that don’t mean anything to anyone.

9:52

Jeff Sullivan: I’ve realized over the years that MLB doesn’t care how people like us feel about the All-Star Game. It’s not for us, and more casual fans still get a kick out of it

9:55

John: Regarding Schwarber, he now wants to be a gold glover, any precedent for a weigh loss/getting into shape actually having a meaningful impact on quality of play?

9:55

Jeff Sullivan: Matt Adams was said to have lost a whole bunch of weight between 2016 – 2017. And while he was overall pretty similar, he did at least temporarily earn the trust to play in the outfield

9:56

Jeff Sullivan: But Adams’s sprint speed in 2016: 25.7 ft/s. In 2017: 26.1 ft/s

9:57

Jeff Sullivan: 15th percentile to 19th percentile

9:58

Jeff Sullivan: Schwarber can’t make himself run faster. He can’t just suddenly “know” better routes. But no one has ever been a worse baseball player by becoming more flexible

9:58

Baseball Guy: Yankees need a one year 2B or 3B. Rockies need a closer. LaMahieu’s and Betances’ salaries more or less match. Yes/No/Maybe?

9:58

Jeff Sullivan: I think the Yankees actually believe in both Torres and Andujar

9:59

Sonny: Bullpening, Ohtani, #AirBallRevolution, Baseball embraces the Process, what are some of the themes of 2017 you’ll remember?

10:00

Jeff Sullivan: Fly balls and the explosion of Statcast data

10:00

boriss: Hello Jeff in your opinion, which team is the best fit for Yu Darvish?

10:00

Jeff Sullivan: He’d be of the greatest help to the Rangers, I imagine, since their rotation sucks

10:00

Another Jeff : Depth Charts says that the Giants will win more games than the Rockies? Really!?

10:01

Jeff Sullivan: Our projections don’t include ZiPS yet; it’s all 100% Steamer until the full ZiPS rollout. That’s a minor point but our “official” team projections aren’t yet being displayed

10:02

Jeff Sullivan: But for whatever it’s worth, the Rockies just had an 82-80 BaseRuns record, and the Giants had a lot of good players have bad seasons

10:02

The Ghost of Stan Javier: Does a Yelich/Realmuto for Benintendi/Vazquez trade make sense for both teams? Five years of control for the outfielders, three for the catchers.

10:03

Jeff Sullivan: Sure, it makes all kinds of sense for the Red Sox, because they’d be getting the better outfielder and the better catcher

10:03

Jeff Sullivan: What an exchange!

10:03

Jay: Any prediction/expectation on the Yonder Alonso signing? Incredibly SSS but he was miserably bad at Safeco after the trade but still good away from it.

10:04

Jeff Sullivan: My suspicion is that Alonso’s approach change is for real, but he’s still something like a slightly-better-than-average bat

10:04

Jeff Sullivan: I think that, down the stretch, he found his own level

10:04

Jeff Sullivan: His own level is not very good

10:05

Alone on Christmas: what will it take to go wrong for the tigers to threaten 120 losses this year?

10:05

Jeff Sullivan: Tuberculosis

10:06

The Ghost of Stan Javier: If Miggy is packaged in a trade with Nick Castellanos, is that value still underwater?

10:06

Jeff Sullivan: Castellanos has two remaining years of team control, and his highest WAR is 1.8

10:07

Jeff Sullivan: Cabrera is due $192 million through 2023

10:07

v2micca: The Cubs and Astros represent the best case scenario results of a tear down and rebuild.  Things don’t always go that smoothly.  Which current rebuild do you think has the greatest chance of derailing?

10:08

Jeff Sullivan: I’m still not a believer in the Braves’ collection of pitchers. And I don’t know if the Reds’ rebuild will ever get off the ground

10:08

Jeff Sullivan: I mean, I love Luis Castillo, but that team needs pitching so bad

10:08

Kirk: What’s your favorite wild animal?

10:08

Jeff Sullivan: marmot

10:09

Josh: Do the O’s realize to have a shot at winning 70+ games they need at least 3 more SPs?  I fear the darkness has returned and we’re about to go on another 14 year losing streak.  Let’s pay Davis, Trumbo, Gallardo, and Ubaldo, but Manny, uh-uh.

10:09

Jeff Sullivan: They just won 75 games with two starting pitchers

10:10

Jeff Sullivan: The year before they won 89 with three

10:10

Jeff Sullivan: That being said, yeah, they’re screwed

10:10

Gabe: Who’s the hottest free agent right now and who will he sign with?

10:10

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know, Darvish? Leaning Cubs

10:10

NotJeff: Do you meet a lot of people name Jeff? I haven’t met anyone in years named Jeff.

10:10

Jeff Sullivan: I feel like every male person in my life is named Jeff, Matt, Dan, or Dave

10:12

P11: Would Williams or Altherr be a better trade chip for the Phils? I’d have to think Williams has higher risk/reward profile but Altherr more of a sure thing.

10:12

Jeff Sullivan: Probably Williams, but I’d rather have Altherr, myself

10:15

Josh: Braves Twitter had a debate yesterday so I thought I’d get your opinion. Soroka, Allard, and Ian Anderson for Christian Yelich (modeled after the Eaton trade) Braves or Marlins say no?

10:16

Jeff Sullivan: Don’t think it gets you there, from the Braves’ perspective. The Marlins would have to be extremely high on all three of those guys. They’re good prospects, but the Marlins need at least one can’t-miss young player from the top of the top-100

10:17

JR: What size contract would make it worth it for the Padres to sign Hosmer?

10:18

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it would be terrible if the Padres gave him like 6/$130 million. Hosmer is a fine player and the Padres have the budget room. It’s just weird to me that Hosmer seems to be picking between two short-term non-contenders. His best value is over the next couple years

10:18

Matt E G: How much of Gerrit Cole’s high HR/FB% last year was bad luck vs throwing far less fastballs and more changeups in order to decrease stress on his elbow? Seems to me he’s valued way too high right now and he may be heading to Matt Harvey territory…

10:19

Jeff Sullivan: Absolutely no reason to worry about a little home-run blip like that

10:19

Jeff Sullivan: These things practically always regress. You won’t find signal in a one-year home-run bump

10:20

Jeff Sullivan: If you believe Statcast Cole is actually coming off his lowest average EV allowed, in three years

10:20

Jimmy Ballgame: If ketel marte is your favorite breakout pick….who is second?

10:20

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t have a list. I have Marte

10:21

Hunky Dory: Do you believe in the Aaron Hicks breakout?  Would you sell high on him rather than trade Frazier or Ellsbury?

10:22

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t buy Hicks at a 127 wRC+, but I buy him as an everyday player

10:22

JR: Thoughts on the Galvis trade?

10:22

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t have a single one

10:22

Jeff Sullivan: Padres needed a fill-in. Got a fill-in

10:23

Perestrelo: Do you think that now the Royals should bring Hosmer and Moustakas back with a lower price?

10:23

Jeff Sullivan: Depends entirely on the prices. The Royals don’t have that much room to pay more market rates for non-elite players

10:23

Rich: Odds that we see a strike or lockout the next round of CBA negotiations?

10:24

Jeff Sullivan: I think the odds of a strike are still very low, because there’s so much money at stake, but all the negotiations will be extra contentious

10:24

Jeff Sullivan: The *threat* of a strike will feel greater

10:26

Beni and the Betts: Who do you prefer? Bird or Schwarber?

10:26

Jeff Sullivan: I like Bird more for 2018, but I like Schwarber’s future potential a little more, just because I think he has better contact quality

10:27

Jeff Sullivan: Schwarber’s peak exit velocity is like 5 or 6 miles per hour higher than Bird’s

10:27

Jeff Sullivan: And it’s not like Bird can claim to have superior durability

10:27

toki: Are the Cubs more likely to sign or trade for a starter?

10:27

Jeff Sullivan: Sign

10:28

Dub: Vince Velasquez and Nick Pivetta for Machado? Who says no?

10:28

Jeff Sullivan: Orioles

10:28

Matt E G: Is the Yankees OF really a logjam? They can have a DH rotation and have to worry about injuries to Hicks, Ellsbury, etc?

10:28

Jeff Sullivan: Frazier is kind of boxed out, but that’s about it

10:28

Bryan: Is Steven Duggar really going to start in center for the Giants this year?

10:28

Jeff Sullivan: No

10:28

Jeff Sullivan: Well, not in April

10:29

Mike: An MLBTR writer said the Yankees would need to trade 2 of Frazier/Torres/Florial/Sheffield plus Adams and maybe Montegomery to get Machado. That’s gotta be incorrect?

10:29

Jeff Sullivan: I mean, maybe that’s what it would require for Angelos to sign off, but the Yankees would be insane to do that

10:29

resumeman: Hi Jeff, thanks for the holiday chat. I see that the park factors on your Guts! page haven’t been updated since 2015. Do you know if they plan to bring that up to date? Happy holidays!

10:29

Jeff Sullivan: Being worked on

10:30

Ted: Are the Yankees really planning on starting Andujar and Torres at 3B and 2B respectively as of now? I don’t even think it’s an awful idea–going with the young guns certainly worked well for them in 2017–just seems uncharacteristic for a team going all-in.

10:30

Jeff Sullivan: Wouldn’t surprise me if Frazier returned

10:30

Chicks Dig the Long Ball: Much is being made of the Giants somewhat Phillian refusal to rebuild. To me, the decision seems pretty easy: they just don’t have enough value on any of their tradeable assets because they all had down years last year. Are the Giants being as stupid as some experts think?

10:32

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the Giants are “being stupid.” A series of decisions has just led them to a scenario where their 2019-2021 seasons look deeply troubling. No one would’ve expected the 2017 Giants to fall on their faces. If they had a stronger player-development system, this wouldn’t look so bad

10:33

Jake: More of a need for the Cardinals (disregarding the obvious need for relievers)…a bat or a starting pitcher?

10:33

Jeff Sullivan: Neither. It’s a reliever

10:34

Jeff Sullivan: It wouldn’t hurt, I guess, to have one more starting pitcher, but the need isn’t great

10:34

Ballsandgutters : For pirates’ fan stuck on Torres could you explain how good Frazier could be

10:34

Jeff Sullivan: Worse than Torres

10:35

JOoohhhnnm: If you could choose one player to overtake Trout as the best player in baseball (I know, it’s unlikely) over the next 5 years who would be your pick? (Can’t choose Harper, sorry)

10:35

Jeff Sullivan: Correa

10:36

Zac: Jeff! Thank you for all the content you provided in 2017.  Hope you are even more prolific in 2018.

10:36

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t!

10:36

Jeff Sullivan: That would be terrible!

10:36

Justin: Did anyone ever come up for a reason as to why the White Sox were willing to give up prospects for 1 year of Manny Machado?

10:36

Jeff Sullivan: The fact that nothing ever happened suggests it was probably more of a due-diligence thing

10:38

Craig in CHI: Gleyber and Ells (plus $40M) for Cole and Meadows.  Which team is out?

10:38

Jeff Sullivan: Pirates

10:38

Jeff Sullivan: Gleyber for Cole would be a net win, but it’s more than canceled out by the pointless Ellsbury/Meadows swap

10:39

Your Girlfriend: What do you want for Christmas?

10:39

Jeff Sullivan: already got it

10:40

Dub: Phillies want Archer, how about Nick Williams, Roman Quinn, Dylan Cozens, Vince Velasquez, Ben Lively, Jake Thompson?

10:41

Jeff Sullivan: Rays would have minimal interest

10:41

Jeff Sullivan: If you want Chris Archer, you have to give up players who are good

10:41

Cards Fan in Austin: Odds that Mikolas out-performs Ohtani as a pitcher in 2018?

10:42

Jeff Sullivan: Kind of depends on your metric. On a per-inning basis, maybe 20%. On a WAR basis, maybe more like 35%, since Mikolas could just accumulate more starts

10:42

Brian CashGod: What remaining free agent is most likely to be a worse investment than bitcoin?

10:43

Jeff Sullivan: That all depends on when you started investing in bitcoin

10:43

Jeff Sullivan: I would want little part of Jake Arrieta, personally

10:43

Guesto: Rumors are flying about Gerrit Cole to the Yankees. How does this end?

10:43

Jeff Sullivan: Probably with Gerrit Cole on the Yankees

10:43

Jeff Sullivan: With no Torres, but with a third player in addition to Frazier and Adams

10:44

Sam: Would acquiring Gerrit Cole make the Yankees the favorites in AL? Or would you still project them behind the Astros?

10:44

Jeff Sullivan: Still like the Astros but it would be so, so close

10:44

The Average Sports Fan: Does Jurrickson Profar ever get a real chance to play?

10:44

Jeff Sullivan: Yes, somewhere else

10:45

John S: Angelos, Wilpon, and the Marlins crew have, rightfully so, been taking flak this offseason.  What other teams can you think of that would benefit from a new ownership group? Seems like there are more committed owners now than 10 years ago – and by committed I mean willing to put up money and get out of the FO’s way.

10:45

Jeff Sullivan: I’m torn on the Nationals. They’ve obviously been willing to invest, but they’ve made life in the front office almost entirely unpredictable

10:46

Jeff Sullivan: I think everyone in Pittsburgh would agree it’s time for the Pirates to be sold

10:46

Craig in CHI: Why is nobody signing Adam Lind?  The guy hits RHP.

10:46

Jeff Sullivan: Nobody is signing anyone

10:46

Jeff Sullivan: I mean, we only just got Alonso, Santana, Adams, etc off the board, and they’re better than Lind is

10:47

Hunky Dory: What do you think is the best way to address franchise players?  Trade ‘em away and break the fanbase’s heart (Longo, Stanton), let ‘em walk in FA (Pujols, Harper, Machado), or extend forever (Jeter, Posey)?

10:48

Jeff Sullivan: Obviously it’s always a case-by-case basis, since it depends on how the player looks and how the team is situated. But my suspicion is that fans would rather stomach the loss of an icon than watch said icon disintegrate over time into nothing

10:48

Jeff Sullivan: Like, how many Cardinals fans would be happy to still have Albert Pujols?

10:48

Tugs: When are you gonna be back for Friday chats? Need to add it to my calendar.

10:48

Jeff Sullivan: Middle of January

10:49

toki: Will Kemp end up as a dh or just out of baseball?

10:49

Jeff Sullivan: 50/50 at this point

10:49

Matt Olson: Was my performance in 2017 a sign of things to come, or should I lower my expectations going forward?

10:49

Jeff Sullivan: I think Olson is a good hitter, but he just finished with two doubles and 24 home runs. That is laughably stupid

10:50

OddBall Herrera: Twins fan who was excited about the idea of Darvish and looking for a silver lining with the apparent bidding war that’s developing (one which MN will almost certainly lose).  Would Cole->NYY + Darvish->Cubs open up the chances the Twins can grab one of the cheaper guys like Cobb or Lynn?  I’d almost be happier with fewer years and dollars to one of those guys.

10:50

Jeff Sullivan: Yes

10:50

John Jaso Jingle Heimer Schmidt: Do the Yankees get a guy like Gerrit Cole without Torres?

10:50

Jeff Sullivan: Torres is too high a price to pay, I feel

10:50

Jeff Sullivan: And the Pirates know that

10:51

Paul O: Do you think the Jays should trade Marcus Stroman? The farm system lacks depth, surely he’d bring back a decent prospect haul.

10:51

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the Blue Jays are in a position where they need to subtract long-term assets

10:51

Kirk: I feel like my odds of getting eaten by a bear are higher than the Mariners odds at making the playoffs in my life again

10:51

Jeff Sullivan: Well one of those things is at least partially up to you

10:51

Cube Jockey: Is Jeter really making day to day decisions in Miami?  Playing SS for the Yankees doesn’t remotely qualify him to be negotiating against statheads and MBAs.

10:52

Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, Jeter does seem to be the point person

10:52

Matt E G: Why is Gerrit Cole being treated like an ace? His elbow is a ticking time bomb, he gives up a lot of homers, and cant throw his fastball as much anymore bc of fear of TJ.

10:52

Jeff Sullivan: He has a career FIP- of 83 and he throws 96 miles per hour

10:53

Jeff Sullivan: 79% of the community thought Cole was an ace two years ago https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-you-defined-an-ace/

10:53

Jeff Sullivan: Since then he’s gotten only a little bit worse

10:54

Slothrop: If someone offered you $100K to pitch in the NPB for a full year at your current skill level would you accept

10:54

Jeff Sullivan: No

10:54

Jeff Sullivan: But I would accept a longer-term investment that allowed my strength to be built up first

10:54

Jeff Sullivan: I like to pitch but my arm is in no shape to do it over and over

10:55

Ohtani Kitaen: So, is Scioscia gonna ruin all of the moves the front office has made by continually running out Pujols in the 4-hole?

10:55

Jeff Sullivan: Don’t count on it

10:55

Joe: Would you trade Frazier and Adams for cole?

10:55

Jeff Sullivan: Yes

10:55

Pretty Tony: The Tigers should definitely be open to trading Fulmer for a haul right? A guy with injury history who has sky-high value right now seems like a good candidate, especially when your farm system has way more impact arms on the way than bats.

10:56

Jeff Sullivan: No one the Tigers shouldn’t be open to moving

10:56

Jeff Sullivan: Their return to contention is a long, long way off

10:56

Bill: As a Cardinals fan I’ll gladly trade with the Mariners or Mets. Front office is a dumpster fire.

10:56

Jeff Sullivan: Good god

10:56

Jeff Sullivan: You don’t know what you have

10:56

Jeff Sullivan: All right, I need to get rolling

10:57

Jeff Sullivan: So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again…in several weeks! And until then, be well and have great days

We hoped you liked reading Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 12/22/17 by Jeff Sullivan!

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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

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sadtrombone
Member
sadtrombone

I lol’d at this:

10:34 Ballsandgutters
For pirates’ fan stuck on Torres could you explain how good Frazier could be

10:34 Jeff Sullivan
Worse than Torres