2017 ZiPS Projections – Miami Marlins

After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Miami Marlins. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / St. Louis / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
In every season from 2011 to 2014, right fielder Giancarlo Stanton (484 PA, 3.8 zWAR) produced the highest WAR total among Miami’s field players. In 2015, he produced the second-highest WAR total on the club — less due to his own shortcomings, however, and more to the .383 BABIP that allowed Dee Gordon (606, 2.1) to record a career-best offensive season. Stanton was almost unassailably the club’s top position player for a period of five years.

The 2016 campaign marked a departure for Stanton, however, from the top of the club’s leaderboard. Limited by injury to just 470 plate appearances, Statnton also produced the worst offensive season of his career. He finished sixth on the team in wins. At the same time, Christian Yelich (638 PA, 3.8) recorded his second four-win season over the last three years. Now the two receive the same win projection, is the point of these whole two paragraphs.

One note: Yelich is located at center field on the depth-chart image below, Marcell Ozuna (602, 2.5) in left — because that seems like the club’s probable alignment in 2017. The two are projected at the opposite positions, however. Generally speaking, there’s about a 10-run difference in the positional adjustment between left and center over the course of a full season. That would render Yelich (projected for +6 runs in left) about a -4 defender in center; Ozuna (projected for -3 runs in center), a +7 fielder in left.

Pitchers
It’s hard to discuss the Marlins generally — or their rotation, specifically — without acknowledging the absence of Jose Fernandez. There have been a number of testaments both to his skill and enthusiasm. Even merely reciting his numbers becomes an accidental tribute to his excellence. Consider: during his four years in the majors, Fernandez averaged 5.3 WAR per 180 innings. Only one other starting pitcher during that interval, Clayton Kershaw, recorded a superior mark.

Unsurprisingly, Miami’s rotation is weaker without Fernandez. Wei-Yin Chen (147.0 IP, 2.4 zWAR) is the nominal ace of the staff, and also the only pitcher on the club to receive win projection here greater than two. It isn’t entirely clear how the club plans to utilize Jeff Locke (141.2, 0.6) and Justin Nicolino (162.1, 1.1). The latter appears to represent the stronger option for the rotation.

With regard to the bullpen, Miami has actually assembled an impressive group, both in terms of top-end talent and depth. Kyle Barraclough (73.1, 1.0) and A.J. Ramos (62.2, 0.9) are most qualified for high-leverage innings, per Szymborski’s computer, but there are a number of other qualified arms.

Bench/Prospects
Though he’s listed as the lone starter at first base, Justin Bour (428 PA, 1.0 zWAR) is a candidate for a platoon role. Xavier Scruggs (475, 0.7) receives the top projection among right-handed batters who aren’t likely to start elsewhere… but was also just signed by a Korean club. Corner infielder Matt Juengel (520, 0.6) is the next-best option by those criteria. Unjustly absent from the depth chart below is Derek Dietrich (436, 1.8). He’s an average major leaguer, it appears.

Among pitchers, left-hander Dillon Peters (112.1 IP, 1.0 zWAR) earns the top forecast among starting options not expected to be selected for the Opening Day rotation. He recorded all but four of his starts in 2016 at High-A.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Marlins, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.