2018 ZiPS Projections – Cleveland Indians
After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Cleveland Indians. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.
Batters
Among those clubs one might reasonably designate as a “super team” — which, for sake of ease, we might simply define as any team projected for 90 or more wins at the moment — Cleveland possesses the lowest current payroll.
Regard:
Team | Payroll | Pay Rank | Wins | Wins Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|
Astros | $130.5 | 13 | 98 | 1 |
Dodgers | $181.1 | 3 | 94 | 2 |
Indians | $122.8 | 15 | 93 | 3 |
Cubs | $142.1 | 8 | 92 | 4 |
Red Sox | $191.1 | 1 | 91 | t5 |
Nationals | $170.4 | 5 | 91 | t5 |
Yankees | $157.9 | 7 | 91 | t5 |
The constraints both of the market and ownership’s willingness to spend might ultimately render it difficult for Cleveland to sustain their current run of excellence. For 2018, however, the Indians are well positioned not only to compete but contend.
Francisco Lindor (696 PA, 5.8 zWAR), of course, remains the centerpiece of the club’s field-playing corps. He’s forecast not only for a batting line nearly 20% better than league average but also +10 fielding runs at shortstop. Jose Ramirez (643, 4.7) is nearly Lindor’s equal, supplying the same type of value, if not necessarily the same degree of it.
After that pair, the roster is composed largely of players in the average range. ZiPS calls for Edwin Encarnacion (577, 2.9) to continue hitting sufficiently well to compensate for his defensive shortcomings. The greatest weakness, meanwhile, appears to be right field, where even a platoon of Lonnie Chisenhall (421, 0.3) and Brandon Guyer (294, 1.0) fails to eclipse the one-win mark by much.
Pitchers
In terms of FIP-based WAR, which is the sort typically displayed at this site for pitchers, Cleveland’s staff outperformed last year’s second-best team (the Yankees) by an amount roughly equivalent to the one by which the Yankees outperformed the 10th-ranked Cardinals. All the relevant parties return to the 2018 edition of the club.
Anchoring the rotation, naturally, is Cy Young-winner Corey Kluber (199.2 IP, 5.5 zWAR), projected for what would represent his fifth consecutive five-win season. After Kluber is a collection of above-average arms in Trevor Bauer (177.1, 2.7), Carlos Carrasco (183.2, 4.2), and Danny Salazar (137.2, 2.5). Depth becomes an issue after that foursome, however. Neither of the next-best options, eitherMike Clevinger(138.0, 1.3) or Josh Tomlin (127.1, 1.0), profile as average starters.
The bullpen remains an oddity in the league, featuring a setup man [superior] not only to his own team’s closer but also to basically any other reliever anywhere. Of course, to say that Cody Allen (65.0, 65, 1.7) fails to rival Andrew Miller (60.2, 46 ERA-, 2.3 zWAR) represents a case of whatever is the opposite of damning with faint praise. Zach McAllister (59.2, 77, 0.9) and Dan Otero (60.2, 73, 0.9), meanwhile, would probably be candidates for the highest-leverage innings on a different club.
Bench/Prospects
Third baseman Yandy Diaz (573 PA, 1.7 zWAR) features one of the strangest/most frustrating combinations of exit velocity and launch angle among major-league hitters, ranking eighth of 540 hitters by the former measure in 2017 and 509th of 540 by the latter. ZiPS calls for Diaz to exhibit little power in 2018 but sufficient patience and contact ability to record something close to a league-average batting line. He receives the top projection of any player omitted from the depth-chart image below.
Despite strong minor-league numbers, right-hander Shane Bieber (167.0 IP, 1.8 zWAR) hasn’t typically ascended to the very top of prospect lists for the Indians — a product, likely, of modest stuff. Nevertheless, he receives the best WAR figure here among rookie-eligible Cleveland pitchers — better, also, than those merited either be Clevinger or Tomlin.
Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Clevelands, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.
Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.
Player | B | Age | PO | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Francisco Lindor | B | 24 | SS | 696 | 94 | 181 | 37 | 5 | 24 | 86 | 17 | 4 |
Jose Ramirez | R | 25 | 3B | 643 | 94 | 174 | 44 | 5 | 20 | 78 | 23 | 8 |
Edwin Encarnacion | R | 35 | DH | 577 | 79 | 129 | 24 | 1 | 31 | 99 | 2 | 0 |
Michael Brantley | L | 31 | LF | 451 | 56 | 121 | 28 | 1 | 11 | 66 | 12 | 1 |
Jason Kipnis | L | 31 | 2B | 538 | 67 | 126 | 31 | 3 | 14 | 55 | 11 | 4 |
Yonder Alonso | L | 31 | 1B | 481 | 63 | 110 | 22 | 0 | 24 | 68 | 3 | 0 |
Yandy Diaz | R | 26 | 3B | 573 | 66 | 136 | 17 | 2 | 6 | 40 | 4 | 3 |
Bradley Zimmer | L | 25 | CF | 508 | 60 | 106 | 21 | 3 | 15 | 56 | 25 | 7 |
Eric Stamets | R | 26 | SS | 412 | 43 | 82 | 17 | 2 | 10 | 38 | 8 | 1 |
Francisco Mejia | B | 22 | C | 438 | 52 | 103 | 22 | 2 | 13 | 54 | 5 | 2 |
Yan Gomes | R | 30 | C | 374 | 40 | 78 | 16 | 1 | 14 | 54 | 0 | 0 |
Brandon Guyer | R | 32 | RF | 294 | 36 | 65 | 15 | 1 | 6 | 30 | 4 | 1 |
Roberto Perez | R | 29 | C | 239 | 24 | 43 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 0 | 1 |
Melvin Upton Jr. | R | 33 | CF | 403 | 46 | 83 | 14 | 3 | 12 | 41 | 13 | 5 |
Tyler Naquin | L | 27 | CF | 407 | 46 | 96 | 16 | 4 | 11 | 40 | 6 | 4 |
Rob Refsnyder | R | 27 | 2B | 427 | 48 | 97 | 22 | 3 | 8 | 38 | 8 | 3 |
Yu-Cheng Chang | R | 22 | SS | 516 | 63 | 100 | 24 | 5 | 15 | 66 | 8 | 3 |
Austin Jackson | R | 31 | CF | 427 | 50 | 102 | 23 | 4 | 6 | 40 | 8 | 4 |
Giovanny Urshela | R | 26 | 3B | 494 | 51 | 119 | 22 | 2 | 8 | 49 | 0 | 1 |
Eric Haase | R | 25 | C | 373 | 43 | 68 | 15 | 3 | 15 | 50 | 2 | 3 |
Lonnie Chisenhall | L | 29 | RF | 421 | 45 | 96 | 22 | 2 | 11 | 57 | 4 | 1 |
Erik Gonzalez | R | 26 | 2B | 446 | 47 | 101 | 16 | 3 | 11 | 45 | 9 | 6 |
Bobby Bradley | L | 22 | 1B | 550 | 66 | 111 | 23 | 2 | 26 | 78 | 3 | 3 |
Abraham Almonte | B | 29 | RF | 376 | 45 | 83 | 19 | 4 | 7 | 35 | 8 | 3 |
Adam Moore | R | 34 | C | 292 | 26 | 56 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 0 | 0 |
Greg Allen | B | 25 | CF | 485 | 55 | 101 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 36 | 25 | 7 |
Willi Castro | B | 21 | SS | 554 | 60 | 129 | 21 | 4 | 14 | 54 | 15 | 12 |
Dorssys Paulino | R | 23 | LF | 369 | 37 | 76 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 32 | 5 | 4 |
Mark Mathias | R | 23 | 2B | 398 | 40 | 76 | 20 | 2 | 5 | 32 | 7 | 1 |
Josh Wilson | R | 37 | 2B | 258 | 24 | 50 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 2 |
Gavin Collins | R | 22 | 3B | 341 | 34 | 70 | 16 | 2 | 8 | 34 | 1 | 1 |
Drew Maggi | R | 29 | 3B | 365 | 35 | 72 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 11 | 7 |
Dan Robertson | R | 32 | LF | 326 | 33 | 80 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 9 | 5 |
David Lough | L | 32 | LF | 179 | 18 | 36 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 2 | 4 |
Richie Shaffer | R | 27 | LF | 523 | 59 | 93 | 22 | 1 | 22 | 63 | 3 | 1 |
Joe Sever | R | 27 | 3B | 465 | 43 | 96 | 16 | 1 | 9 | 38 | 2 | 1 |
Mike Papi | L | 25 | RF | 501 | 54 | 92 | 19 | 1 | 12 | 45 | 4 | 3 |
Brandon Barnes | R | 32 | CF | 408 | 39 | 82 | 18 | 2 | 7 | 31 | 9 | 5 |
Jordan Smith | L | 27 | CF | 422 | 38 | 79 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 32 | 8 | 7 |
Michael Martinez | B | 35 | 2B | 297 | 28 | 63 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 3 | 4 |
Tyler Krieger | B | 24 | 2B | 512 | 50 | 101 | 22 | 3 | 7 | 40 | 11 | 8 |
Nellie Rodriguez | R | 24 | 1B | 497 | 51 | 77 | 17 | 1 | 21 | 57 | 0 | 0 |
***
Player | PA | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Francisco Lindor | 696 | 8.2% | 13.2% | .192 | .306 | .292 | .351 | .484 | .352 | 118 |
Jose Ramirez | 643 | 7.8% | 10.6% | .196 | .309 | .299 | .355 | .495 | .358 | 122 |
Edwin Encarnacion | 577 | 13.5% | 19.8% | .243 | .280 | .263 | .366 | .506 | .367 | 128 |
Michael Brantley | 451 | 8.4% | 11.3% | .155 | .316 | .298 | .359 | .453 | .346 | 114 |
Jason Kipnis | 538 | 8.2% | 19.7% | .164 | .306 | .262 | .327 | .426 | .323 | 98 |
Yonder Alonso | 481 | 12.1% | 23.7% | .224 | .304 | .262 | .353 | .486 | .355 | 120 |
Yandy Diaz | 573 | 11.9% | 18.3% | .078 | .333 | .273 | .361 | .351 | .318 | 94 |
Bradley Zimmer | 508 | 8.7% | 33.9% | .159 | .340 | .234 | .312 | .393 | .305 | 86 |
Eric Stamets | 412 | 5.8% | 27.2% | .137 | .282 | .220 | .275 | .357 | .273 | 64 |
Francisco Mejia | 438 | 4.8% | 18.3% | .159 | .281 | .252 | .291 | .411 | .297 | 80 |
Yan Gomes | 374 | 5.9% | 25.4% | .175 | .269 | .227 | .281 | .402 | .290 | 76 |
Brandon Guyer | 294 | 6.5% | 19.0% | .138 | .306 | .256 | .349 | .394 | .328 | 101 |
Roberto Perez | 239 | 11.3% | 26.8% | .162 | .267 | .211 | .303 | .373 | .295 | 79 |
Melvin Upton Jr. | 403 | 7.9% | 30.8% | .153 | .305 | .226 | .289 | .379 | .286 | 73 |
Tyler Naquin | 407 | 7.6% | 27.8% | .155 | .343 | .261 | .319 | .416 | .313 | 91 |
Rob Refsnyder | 427 | 8.2% | 19.2% | .135 | .299 | .252 | .319 | .387 | .305 | 85 |
Yu-Cheng Chang | 516 | 7.2% | 32.2% | .170 | .293 | .215 | .278 | .384 | .284 | 71 |
Austin Jackson | 427 | 7.7% | 21.5% | .127 | .328 | .264 | .322 | .390 | .308 | 88 |
Giovanny Urshela | 494 | 4.5% | 15.6% | .108 | .291 | .256 | .293 | .363 | .283 | 71 |
Eric Haase | 373 | 7.5% | 40.5% | .194 | .301 | .199 | .265 | .393 | .282 | 70 |
Lonnie Chisenhall | 421 | 6.9% | 20.0% | .155 | .293 | .252 | .309 | .407 | .305 | 85 |
Erik Gonzalez | 446 | 3.6% | 28.3% | .130 | .314 | .239 | .269 | .370 | .273 | 63 |
Bobby Bradley | 550 | 8.4% | 32.5% | .212 | .289 | .224 | .293 | .436 | .309 | 88 |
Abraham Almonte | 376 | 8.5% | 21.8% | .142 | .303 | .246 | .311 | .388 | .300 | 82 |
Adam Moore | 292 | 6.2% | 34.2% | .107 | .303 | .207 | .261 | .315 | .253 | 50 |
Greg Allen | 485 | 5.8% | 20.4% | .085 | .289 | .233 | .302 | .319 | .276 | 66 |
Willi Castro | 554 | 3.6% | 22.6% | .135 | .295 | .246 | .277 | .381 | .280 | 69 |
Dorssys Paulino | 369 | 8.4% | 26.8% | .118 | .301 | .230 | .300 | .347 | .284 | 72 |
Mark Mathias | 398 | 6.8% | 27.1% | .109 | .285 | .212 | .280 | .320 | .265 | 58 |
Josh Wilson | 258 | 4.3% | 27.1% | .111 | .278 | .213 | .267 | .323 | .259 | 54 |
Gavin Collins | 341 | 6.5% | 27.6% | .141 | .290 | .224 | .279 | .364 | .278 | 67 |
Drew Maggi | 365 | 7.7% | 23.6% | .076 | .286 | .220 | .293 | .297 | .264 | 57 |
Dan Robertson | 326 | 6.7% | 14.7% | .087 | .308 | .267 | .318 | .353 | .293 | 78 |
David Lough | 179 | 5.6% | 20.1% | .098 | .268 | .220 | .271 | .317 | .258 | 53 |
Richie Shaffer | 523 | 9.9% | 38.4% | .195 | .295 | .202 | .289 | .397 | .296 | 79 |
Joe Sever | 465 | 4.7% | 26.7% | .104 | .286 | .221 | .265 | .325 | .257 | 53 |
Mike Papi | 501 | 11.0% | 27.3% | .130 | .274 | .210 | .301 | .340 | .282 | 70 |
Brandon Barnes | 408 | 5.4% | 30.1% | .114 | .300 | .217 | .264 | .331 | .257 | 52 |
Jordan Smith | 422 | 6.6% | 28.2% | .090 | .278 | .204 | .260 | .294 | .243 | 43 |
Michael Martinez | 297 | 5.4% | 20.9% | .080 | .285 | .228 | .269 | .308 | .251 | 48 |
Tyler Krieger | 512 | 6.8% | 28.9% | .106 | .300 | .218 | .279 | .324 | .265 | 58 |
Nellie Rodriguez | 497 | 9.9% | 46.9% | .186 | .293 | .175 | .258 | .361 | .267 | 60 |
***
Player | PA | RC/27 | OPS+ | Def | zWAR | No.1 Comp |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Francisco Lindor | 696 | 6.6 | 119 | 10 | 5.8 | Troy Tulowitzki |
Jose Ramirez | 643 | 6.9 | 123 | 6 | 4.7 | Jeff Cirillo |
Edwin Encarnacion | 577 | 6.8 | 129 | 0 | 2.9 | Andre Thornton |
Michael Brantley | 451 | 6.5 | 114 | 0 | 1.9 | Wally Moses |
Jason Kipnis | 538 | 5.2 | 98 | -2 | 1.7 | Pep Young |
Yonder Alonso | 481 | 6.4 | 120 | -3 | 1.7 | J.T. Snow |
Yandy Diaz | 573 | 4.7 | 91 | 0 | 1.7 | Kevin Seitzer |
Bradley Zimmer | 508 | 4.6 | 86 | 4 | 1.6 | Jim Edmonds |
Eric Stamets | 412 | 3.6 | 66 | 11 | 1.3 | Andujar Cedeno |
Francisco Mejia | 438 | 4.3 | 84 | -1 | 1.2 | Richard Suomi |
Yan Gomes | 374 | 3.9 | 79 | 3 | 1.1 | Nelson Santovenia |
Brandon Guyer | 294 | 5.1 | 98 | 2 | 1.0 | Barry Bonnell |
Roberto Perez | 239 | 3.8 | 79 | 2 | 0.8 | Danny Ardoin |
Melvin Upton Jr. | 403 | 3.9 | 76 | 5 | 0.7 | Bo Porter |
Tyler Naquin | 407 | 4.8 | 93 | -4 | 0.7 | Cesar Geronimo |
Rob Refsnyder | 427 | 4.5 | 87 | -2 | 0.7 | Vance Law |
Yu-Cheng Chang | 516 | 3.7 | 74 | 1 | 0.7 | Ian Desmond |
Austin Jackson | 427 | 4.6 | 88 | -4 | 0.6 | Gino Cimoli |
Giovanny Urshela | 494 | 3.8 | 73 | 5 | 0.6 | Wilton Veras |
Eric Haase | 373 | 3.4 | 72 | 0 | 0.5 | Jayhawk Owens |
Lonnie Chisenhall | 421 | 4.6 | 88 | 0 | 0.3 | Mike Brown |
Erik Gonzalez | 446 | 3.5 | 68 | 6 | 0.3 | Fred Manrique |
Bobby Bradley | 550 | 4.4 | 90 | 1 | 0.2 | Brad Pounders |
Abraham Almonte | 376 | 4.4 | 84 | 0 | 0.1 | Jermaine Allensworth |
Adam Moore | 292 | 2.8 | 52 | 2 | -0.1 | George Mitterwald |
Greg Allen | 485 | 3.7 | 66 | -2 | -0.1 | Pat Hallmark |
Willi Castro | 554 | 3.6 | 73 | -5 | -0.2 | Andre Wood |
Dorssys Paulino | 369 | 3.6 | 72 | 1 | -0.3 | Angel Morris |
Mark Mathias | 398 | 3.2 | 59 | 1 | -0.3 | Mike Neal |
Josh Wilson | 258 | 2.9 | 56 | 2 | -0.3 | Jeff Branson |
Gavin Collins | 341 | 3.5 | 69 | -3 | -0.4 | Ramon Henderson |
Drew Maggi | 365 | 2.9 | 58 | 1 | -0.4 | Andy Beinbrink |
Dan Robertson | 326 | 4.1 | 79 | -4 | -0.5 | Gene Clines |
David Lough | 179 | 2.6 | 56 | 2 | -0.5 | Marc Sagmoen |
Richie Shaffer | 523 | 3.9 | 80 | -7 | -0.7 | Billy Martin |
Joe Sever | 465 | 3.0 | 56 | 0 | -0.8 | Tommy Whiteman |
Mike Papi | 501 | 3.4 | 70 | -2 | -0.9 | Todd Sears |
Brandon Barnes | 408 | 3.0 | 57 | -2 | -0.9 | Damon Buford |
Jordan Smith | 422 | 2.4 | 47 | 4 | -1.0 | Kevin Wiggins |
Michael Martinez | 297 | 2.7 | 53 | -2 | -1.0 | Edgar Caceres |
Tyler Krieger | 512 | 3.0 | 60 | -4 | -1.1 | Rich Casarotti |
Nellie Rodriguez | 497 | 3.1 | 62 | -1 | -1.6 | Dan Trumble |
***
Player | T | Age | G | GS | IP | K | BB | HR | H | R | ER |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Corey Kluber | R | 32 | 29 | 29 | 199.7 | 224 | 44 | 17 | 165 | 66 | 62 |
Carlos Carrasco | R | 31 | 30 | 30 | 183.7 | 201 | 40 | 23 | 159 | 70 | 65 |
Trevor Bauer | R | 27 | 32 | 30 | 177.3 | 185 | 64 | 21 | 164 | 82 | 77 |
Danny Salazar | R | 28 | 27 | 25 | 137.7 | 172 | 53 | 17 | 115 | 59 | 55 |
Andrew Miller | L | 33 | 58 | 0 | 60.7 | 91 | 18 | 6 | 43 | 15 | 14 |
Shane Bieber | R | 23 | 28 | 28 | 167.0 | 102 | 28 | 22 | 186 | 86 | 80 |
Cody Allen | R | 29 | 67 | 0 | 65.0 | 81 | 23 | 6 | 50 | 22 | 21 |
Michael Clevinger | R | 27 | 31 | 26 | 138.0 | 149 | 64 | 21 | 129 | 73 | 68 |
Josh Tomlin | R | 33 | 24 | 23 | 127.3 | 96 | 15 | 24 | 139 | 70 | 65 |
Zach McAllister | R | 30 | 51 | 0 | 59.7 | 65 | 21 | 6 | 54 | 22 | 21 |
Dan Otero | R | 33 | 52 | 0 | 60.3 | 40 | 9 | 5 | 61 | 24 | 22 |
Cody Anderson | R | 27 | 22 | 18 | 99.0 | 70 | 28 | 15 | 106 | 54 | 50 |
Diego Moreno | R | 30 | 29 | 2 | 44.7 | 40 | 14 | 5 | 44 | 20 | 19 |
Nick Goody | R | 26 | 55 | 0 | 56.3 | 78 | 21 | 10 | 47 | 26 | 24 |
Ryan Merritt | L | 26 | 25 | 23 | 136.7 | 84 | 27 | 24 | 160 | 80 | 75 |
Tyler Olson | L | 28 | 58 | 0 | 55.0 | 55 | 19 | 7 | 52 | 26 | 24 |
Leonel Campos | R | 30 | 44 | 1 | 51.7 | 60 | 29 | 6 | 44 | 25 | 23 |
Jeff Johnson | R | 28 | 50 | 0 | 51.7 | 53 | 33 | 4 | 46 | 25 | 23 |
Tim Cooney | L | 27 | 18 | 18 | 100.0 | 73 | 29 | 18 | 112 | 58 | 54 |
Louis Head | R | 28 | 49 | 0 | 58.0 | 55 | 31 | 5 | 55 | 29 | 27 |
Shawn Morimando | L | 25 | 26 | 25 | 142.7 | 109 | 65 | 22 | 158 | 87 | 81 |
Jeff Beliveau | L | 31 | 44 | 1 | 55.3 | 64 | 32 | 7 | 49 | 29 | 27 |
Lisalverto Bonilla | R | 28 | 30 | 11 | 92.0 | 83 | 41 | 14 | 96 | 54 | 50 |
Rob Kaminsky | L | 23 | 22 | 22 | 109.0 | 64 | 51 | 13 | 121 | 65 | 61 |
Evan Marshall | R | 28 | 37 | 1 | 44.0 | 35 | 17 | 5 | 47 | 22 | 21 |
Josh Martin | R | 28 | 38 | 0 | 49.7 | 46 | 18 | 7 | 50 | 26 | 24 |
Alexi Ogando | R | 34 | 43 | 0 | 45.0 | 35 | 22 | 5 | 46 | 24 | 22 |
Cole Sulser | R | 28 | 38 | 6 | 73.3 | 68 | 31 | 12 | 76 | 43 | 40 |
Julian Merryweather | R | 26 | 23 | 22 | 114.0 | 91 | 35 | 22 | 130 | 71 | 66 |
Craig Breslow | L | 37 | 42 | 0 | 43.0 | 31 | 17 | 6 | 48 | 25 | 23 |
Joe Colon | R | 28 | 28 | 6 | 55.7 | 47 | 32 | 8 | 58 | 34 | 32 |
Adam Plutko | R | 26 | 25 | 23 | 130.0 | 96 | 46 | 25 | 151 | 83 | 78 |
Neil Ramirez | R | 29 | 42 | 0 | 46.7 | 56 | 26 | 9 | 44 | 28 | 26 |
Travis Banwart | R | 32 | 20 | 17 | 85.3 | 56 | 32 | 16 | 99 | 56 | 52 |
Matt Whitehouse | L | 27 | 29 | 16 | 98.7 | 68 | 39 | 18 | 114 | 64 | 60 |
Cameron Hill | R | 24 | 45 | 0 | 62.7 | 45 | 20 | 12 | 71 | 40 | 37 |
Chris Narveson | L | 36 | 19 | 15 | 84.7 | 57 | 38 | 17 | 97 | 58 | 54 |
Robbie Aviles | R | 26 | 40 | 1 | 59.3 | 30 | 22 | 9 | 71 | 39 | 36 |
Jarrett Grube | R | 36 | 22 | 21 | 108.7 | 78 | 38 | 25 | 128 | 76 | 71 |
Michael Peoples | R | 26 | 21 | 20 | 105.3 | 54 | 51 | 20 | 132 | 78 | 73 |
D.J. Brown | R | 27 | 29 | 11 | 93.0 | 68 | 34 | 25 | 116 | 73 | 68 |
Matt Esparza | R | 23 | 25 | 25 | 122.3 | 86 | 49 | 31 | 148 | 93 | 87 |
Shao-Ching Chiang | R | 24 | 25 | 25 | 138.7 | 67 | 38 | 33 | 179 | 105 | 98 |
***
Player | IP | TBF | K% | BB% | BABIP | ERA | FIP | ERA- | FIP- |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Corey Kluber | 199.7 | 808 | 27.7% | 5.4% | .287 | 2.79 | 2.76 | 62 | 63 |
Carlos Carrasco | 183.7 | 750 | 26.8% | 5.3% | .283 | 3.19 | 3.32 | 71 | 76 |
Trevor Bauer | 177.3 | 760 | 24.3% | 8.4% | .296 | 3.91 | 3.79 | 87 | 87 |
Danny Salazar | 137.7 | 581 | 29.6% | 9.1% | .293 | 3.60 | 3.48 | 80 | 79 |
Andrew Miller | 60.7 | 243 | 37.4% | 7.4% | .298 | 2.08 | 2.53 | 46 | 58 |
Shane Bieber | 167.0 | 715 | 14.3% | 3.9% | .297 | 4.31 | 4.30 | 96 | 98 |
Cody Allen | 65.0 | 268 | 30.2% | 8.6% | .280 | 2.91 | 2.93 | 65 | 67 |
Michael Clevinger | 138.0 | 607 | 24.5% | 10.5% | .294 | 4.43 | 4.48 | 99 | 102 |
Josh Tomlin | 127.3 | 536 | 17.9% | 2.8% | .289 | 4.59 | 4.50 | 103 | 103 |
Zach McAllister | 59.7 | 254 | 25.6% | 8.3% | .300 | 3.17 | 3.39 | 71 | 77 |
Dan Otero | 60.3 | 251 | 15.9% | 3.6% | .286 | 3.28 | 3.26 | 73 | 74 |
Cody Anderson | 99.0 | 431 | 16.2% | 6.5% | .289 | 4.55 | 4.62 | 102 | 105 |
Diego Moreno | 44.7 | 192 | 20.8% | 7.3% | .300 | 3.83 | 3.96 | 86 | 90 |
Nick Goody | 56.3 | 237 | 32.9% | 8.9% | .296 | 3.83 | 3.87 | 86 | 88 |
Ryan Merritt | 136.7 | 597 | 14.1% | 4.5% | .298 | 4.94 | 4.94 | 110 | 113 |
Tyler Olson | 55.0 | 236 | 23.3% | 8.1% | .296 | 3.93 | 3.90 | 88 | 89 |
Leonel Campos | 51.7 | 228 | 26.3% | 12.7% | .292 | 4.01 | 4.14 | 89 | 94 |
Jeff Johnson | 51.7 | 234 | 22.6% | 14.1% | .298 | 4.01 | 4.09 | 89 | 93 |
Tim Cooney | 100.0 | 441 | 16.6% | 6.6% | .297 | 4.86 | 5.00 | 109 | 114 |
Louis Head | 58.0 | 260 | 21.2% | 11.9% | .301 | 4.19 | 4.09 | 94 | 93 |
Shawn Morimando | 142.7 | 651 | 16.7% | 10.0% | .304 | 5.11 | 5.15 | 114 | 117 |
Jeff Beliveau | 55.3 | 247 | 25.9% | 13.0% | .298 | 4.39 | 4.28 | 98 | 98 |
Lisalverto Bonilla | 92.0 | 413 | 20.1% | 9.9% | .304 | 4.89 | 4.80 | 109 | 109 |
Rob Kaminsky | 109.0 | 499 | 12.8% | 10.2% | .296 | 5.04 | 5.10 | 112 | 116 |
Evan Marshall | 44.0 | 196 | 17.9% | 8.7% | .307 | 4.30 | 4.20 | 96 | 96 |
Josh Martin | 49.7 | 217 | 21.2% | 8.3% | .301 | 4.35 | 4.35 | 97 | 99 |
Alexi Ogando | 45.0 | 203 | 17.2% | 10.8% | .295 | 4.40 | 4.58 | 98 | 104 |
Cole Sulser | 73.3 | 327 | 20.8% | 9.5% | .302 | 4.91 | 4.78 | 110 | 109 |
Julian Merryweather | 114.0 | 507 | 17.9% | 6.9% | .307 | 5.21 | 5.18 | 116 | 118 |
Craig Breslow | 43.0 | 194 | 16.0% | 8.8% | .302 | 4.81 | 4.65 | 108 | 106 |
Joe Colon | 55.7 | 257 | 18.3% | 12.5% | .299 | 5.17 | 5.17 | 116 | 118 |
Adam Plutko | 130.0 | 587 | 16.4% | 7.8% | .305 | 5.40 | 5.38 | 121 | 123 |
Neil Ramirez | 46.7 | 210 | 26.7% | 12.4% | .297 | 5.01 | 4.94 | 112 | 113 |
Travis Banwart | 85.3 | 387 | 14.5% | 8.3% | .299 | 5.48 | 5.55 | 122 | 126 |
Matt Whitehouse | 98.7 | 449 | 15.1% | 8.7% | .302 | 5.47 | 5.52 | 122 | 126 |
Cameron Hill | 62.7 | 279 | 16.1% | 7.2% | .298 | 5.31 | 5.36 | 119 | 122 |
Chris Narveson | 84.7 | 389 | 14.7% | 9.8% | .293 | 5.74 | 5.91 | 128 | 135 |
Robbie Aviles | 59.3 | 271 | 11.1% | 8.1% | .301 | 5.46 | 5.43 | 122 | 124 |
Jarrett Grube | 108.7 | 492 | 15.9% | 7.7% | .299 | 5.88 | 5.90 | 131 | 135 |
Michael Peoples | 105.3 | 499 | 10.8% | 10.2% | .304 | 6.24 | 6.22 | 139 | 142 |
D.J. Brown | 93.0 | 429 | 15.9% | 7.9% | .307 | 6.58 | 6.48 | 147 | 148 |
Matt Esparza | 122.3 | 564 | 15.2% | 8.7% | .300 | 6.40 | 6.44 | 143 | 147 |
Shao-Ching Chiang | 138.7 | 633 | 10.6% | 6.0% | .300 | 6.36 | 6.28 | 142 | 143 |
***
Player | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA+ | zWAR | No. 1 Comp |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Corey Kluber | 199.7 | 10.10 | 1.98 | 0.77 | 150 | 5.5 | Greg Maddux |
Carlos Carrasco | 183.7 | 9.85 | 1.96 | 1.13 | 132 | 4.2 | Doug Drabek |
Trevor Bauer | 177.3 | 9.39 | 3.25 | 1.07 | 107 | 2.7 | Matt Clement |
Danny Salazar | 137.7 | 11.24 | 3.46 | 1.11 | 117 | 2.5 | Wade Miller |
Andrew Miller | 60.7 | 13.50 | 2.67 | 0.89 | 202 | 2.3 | John Hiller |
Shane Bieber | 167.0 | 5.50 | 1.51 | 1.19 | 97 | 1.8 | Rick Wise |
Cody Allen | 65.0 | 11.22 | 3.18 | 0.83 | 144 | 1.7 | Greg Harris |
Michael Clevinger | 138.0 | 9.72 | 4.17 | 1.37 | 95 | 1.3 | Charlie Puleo |
Josh Tomlin | 127.3 | 6.79 | 1.06 | 1.70 | 91 | 1.0 | Dick Bosman |
Zach McAllister | 59.7 | 9.80 | 3.17 | 0.91 | 133 | 0.9 | Mike Henneman |
Dan Otero | 60.3 | 5.97 | 1.34 | 0.75 | 128 | 0.9 | Dick Coffman |
Cody Anderson | 99.0 | 6.36 | 2.55 | 1.36 | 92 | 0.8 | Chuck Porter |
Diego Moreno | 44.7 | 8.06 | 2.82 | 1.01 | 110 | 0.6 | Jose Silva |
Nick Goody | 56.3 | 12.46 | 3.36 | 1.60 | 110 | 0.5 | Fernando Cabrera |
Ryan Merritt | 136.7 | 5.53 | 1.78 | 1.58 | 85 | 0.5 | Blaine Beatty |
Tyler Olson | 55.0 | 9.00 | 3.11 | 1.15 | 107 | 0.5 | Chris Marchok |
Leonel Campos | 51.7 | 10.45 | 5.05 | 1.05 | 105 | 0.5 | Tyler Yates |
Jeff Johnson | 51.7 | 9.23 | 5.75 | 0.70 | 105 | 0.4 | George Smith |
Tim Cooney | 100.0 | 6.57 | 2.61 | 1.62 | 85 | 0.4 | Blaine Beatty |
Louis Head | 58.0 | 8.53 | 4.81 | 0.78 | 100 | 0.4 | Gabriel Dehoyos |
Shawn Morimando | 142.7 | 6.88 | 4.10 | 1.39 | 82 | 0.3 | Greg Kubes |
Jeff Beliveau | 55.3 | 10.41 | 5.20 | 1.14 | 96 | 0.3 | Kevin Tolar |
Lisalverto Bonilla | 92.0 | 8.12 | 4.01 | 1.37 | 86 | 0.3 | Greg Booker |
Rob Kaminsky | 109.0 | 5.28 | 4.21 | 1.07 | 82 | 0.2 | Wade Blasingame |
Evan Marshall | 44.0 | 7.16 | 3.48 | 1.02 | 96 | 0.2 | Mike Gardner |
Josh Martin | 49.7 | 8.34 | 3.26 | 1.27 | 97 | 0.2 | Rick Steed |
Alexi Ogando | 45.0 | 7.00 | 4.40 | 1.00 | 95 | 0.2 | Ted Abernathy |
Cole Sulser | 73.3 | 8.35 | 3.80 | 1.47 | 86 | 0.1 | Dave Hooten |
Julian Merryweather | 114.0 | 7.18 | 2.76 | 1.74 | 81 | 0.1 | Doug Waechter |
Craig Breslow | 43.0 | 6.49 | 3.56 | 1.26 | 87 | 0.0 | Bob Scanlan |
Joe Colon | 55.7 | 7.60 | 5.17 | 1.29 | 81 | -0.1 | Mike Zimmerman |
Adam Plutko | 130.0 | 6.65 | 3.18 | 1.73 | 78 | -0.2 | Andy Taulbee |
Neil Ramirez | 46.7 | 10.80 | 5.01 | 1.74 | 83 | -0.2 | Billy Sylvester |
Travis Banwart | 85.3 | 5.91 | 3.38 | 1.69 | 77 | -0.2 | R.A. Dickey |
Matt Whitehouse | 98.7 | 6.20 | 3.56 | 1.64 | 77 | -0.3 | Don Vesling |
Cameron Hill | 62.7 | 6.46 | 2.87 | 1.72 | 79 | -0.4 | Julio Guerrero |
Chris Narveson | 84.7 | 6.06 | 4.04 | 1.81 | 73 | -0.4 | Vern Kennedy |
Robbie Aviles | 59.3 | 4.55 | 3.34 | 1.37 | 77 | -0.5 | Blake Mayo |
Jarrett Grube | 108.7 | 6.46 | 3.15 | 2.07 | 71 | -0.7 | Aaron Sele |
Michael Peoples | 105.3 | 4.61 | 4.36 | 1.71 | 67 | -1.1 | Mark Woodyard |
D.J. Brown | 93.0 | 6.58 | 3.29 | 2.42 | 64 | -1.5 | Scott Shoemaker |
Matt Esparza | 122.3 | 6.33 | 3.60 | 2.28 | 65 | -1.6 | Ty Hartshorn |
Shao-Ching Chiang | 138.7 | 4.35 | 2.47 | 2.14 | 66 | -1.7 | Charlie Scott |
***
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.
Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.
Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”
Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
Both Lindor and Corey Seager have Troy Tulowitski as their top comp.
Maybe I should save this for the Effectively Wild group, but it’s like ZiPS has doubled down on Tulo. (This reference only makes sense if you’ve listened to yesterday’s Minor League FA draft episode. Oh Lord, when will we finally have baseball again?)
That’s not something that I’d ever complain about. Tulo had all the talent in the worth only to get derailed by constant and lingering injuries. Dude was an absolute beast when healthy, but it seems like they finally started catching up to them.