2018 ZiPS Projections – Cleveland Indians

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Cleveland Indians. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
Among those clubs one might reasonably designate as a “super team” — which, for sake of ease, we might simply define as any team projected for 90 or more wins at the moment — Cleveland possesses the lowest current payroll.

Regard:

The constraints both of the market and ownership’s willingness to spend might ultimately render it difficult for Cleveland to sustain their current run of excellence. For 2018, however, the Indians are well positioned not only to compete but contend.

Francisco Lindor (696 PA, 5.8 zWAR), of course, remains the centerpiece of the club’s field-playing corps. He’s forecast not only for a batting line nearly 20% better than league average but also +10 fielding runs at shortstop. Jose Ramirez (643, 4.7) is nearly Lindor’s equal, supplying the same type of value, if not necessarily the same degree of it.

After that pair, the roster is composed largely of players in the average range. ZiPS calls for Edwin Encarnacion (577, 2.9) to continue hitting sufficiently well to compensate for his defensive shortcomings. The greatest weakness, meanwhile, appears to be right field, where even a platoon of Lonnie Chisenhall (421, 0.3) and Brandon Guyer (294, 1.0) fails to eclipse the one-win mark by much.

Pitchers
In terms of FIP-based WAR, which is the sort typically displayed at this site for pitchers, Cleveland’s staff outperformed last year’s second-best team (the Yankees) by an amount roughly equivalent to the one by which the Yankees outperformed the 10th-ranked Cardinals. All the relevant parties return to the 2018 edition of the club.

Anchoring the rotation, naturally, is Cy Young-winner Corey Kluber (199.2 IP, 5.5 zWAR), projected for what would represent his fifth consecutive five-win season. After Kluber is a collection of above-average arms in Trevor Bauer (177.1, 2.7), Carlos Carrasco (183.2, 4.2), and Danny Salazar (137.2, 2.5). Depth becomes an issue after that foursome, however. Neither of the next-best options, eitherMike Clevinger(138.0, 1.3) or Josh Tomlin (127.1, 1.0), profile as average starters.

The bullpen remains an oddity in the league, featuring a setup man [superior] not only to his own team’s closer but also to basically any other reliever anywhere. Of course, to say that Cody Allen (65.0, 65, 1.7) fails to rival Andrew Miller (60.2, 46 ERA-, 2.3 zWAR) represents a case of whatever is the opposite of damning with faint praise. Zach McAllister (59.2, 77, 0.9) and Dan Otero (60.2, 73, 0.9), meanwhile, would probably be candidates for the highest-leverage innings on a different club.

Bench/Prospects
Third baseman Yandy Diaz (573 PA, 1.7 zWAR) features one of the strangest/most frustrating combinations of exit velocity and launch angle among major-league hitters, ranking eighth of 540 hitters by the former measure in 2017 and 509th of 540 by the latter. ZiPS calls for Diaz to exhibit little power in 2018 but sufficient patience and contact ability to record something close to a league-average batting line. He receives the top projection of any player omitted from the depth-chart image below.

Despite strong minor-league numbers, right-hander Shane Bieber (167.0 IP, 1.8 zWAR) hasn’t typically ascended to the very top of prospect lists for the Indians — a product, likely, of modest stuff. Nevertheless, he receives the best WAR figure here among rookie-eligible Cleveland pitchers — better, also, than those merited either be Clevinger or Tomlin.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Clevelands, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

***

***

***

***

***

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.