Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 12/20/17

Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday, everyone.

Dave Cameron: Will begin the chat as soon as I finish this InstaGraphs post on Longoria trade.

Dave Cameron: Back in a few!

Dave Cameron: Okay, hi everyone.

Dave Cameron: Let’s talk some baseball for the last time in 2017.

Jay: Why do the Giants want Longoria when they didn’t get Stanton or Ohtani? The Dodgers aren’t going away the next few years.

Dave Cameron: This is the most pertinent question. I wrote a piece for ESPN today arguing the Giants should consider rebuilding. Obviously, they aren’t doing that, but Longoria (and rumored interest in Jay Bruce) doesn’t move the needle. This kind of deal just makes the Giants a little less bad but puts even more long-term money on their books. They’re going to have to face reality soon.

J.BrucesterCockburn: Hi Dave. Britton’s injury makes Machado trade more or less likely?

Dave Cameron: Has to be more. If the Orioles didn’t know they weren’t contenders yesterday, they better know that today.

max: Odds Orioles release Britton in hopes of reallocating his projected 12/13M salary from arbitration?

Dave Cameron: They’d still have to pay him 30 days severance, so a couple of million. That makes the savings closer to $10M. They might do it, but I’d probably just keep him, hope he gets back soon, and you can flip him for more than $10M worth of assets this summer.

The Hamburglar: Would it be unwise of the Orioles to hold on to Machado, or does that entirely depend on the packages being offered?

Dave Cameron: It’s unwise to hold him. There’s very little chance his value goes up substantially.

Dave Cameron: And as they just saw with Britton, trade value can disappear overnight.

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Boy, the Orioles sure are a mess, right?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

Dustin: With the news of Britton injuring his achilles (and thus the Orioles losing a big trade chip), are we getting closer to the a world in which the Orioles best option may actually be holding on Manny and just trying to compete this season? It sounds like a terrible idea, but if they can’t turn any of their players into significant future pieces, maybe one year of quasi-competitiveness this year is worth an extra year of suck on the end of the rebuild later?

Dave Cameron: They aren’t close to quasi-competitiveness. They’re one of the worst teams in baseball.

Oddball Herrera: Re: Lincecum working out for teams, there’s no way someone gives him a rotation spot, right?  He seems like he could be a sneaky pickup as a late inning reliever, if he’s willing to be in the bullpen

Dave Cameron: There are plenty of teams out there that should bring him to spring training and figure it out then.

Dave Cameron: If he’s good in ST, you start him. If he’s bad, RP or cut.

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Does Denard Span fit into Tampa’s outfield with Kiermaier, Smith, Souza, Dickerson, etc.? Or is he there to even the cash in the deal?

Dave Cameron: He’s a cash offset. I’d expect they’ll trade him before the year is out.

Richard: Dave, hope you have a great Christmas holiday! With the Braves outfield as it currently stands, would Acuna play LF? And Markakis stay in RF?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think Markakis is long for that roster either.

420man: Are the Cubs really interested in Darvish or is this some sort of a ploy to bring Cobb’s price down?

Dave Cameron: Why wouldn’t they be interested in Darvish? He’s good.

420man: If you’re the Cubs would you look next to add another reliever, maybe a higher priced guy like Davis or Reed, or go for a starting pitcher?

Dave Cameron: They need another SP or two.

Aj: Could the Phillies get Yelich cheaper if they also took on some of Marlins bad $$, like Chen, Ziegler or Tazawa?

Dave Cameron: Potentially, yes. Every team in baseball should be trying to get in on that, though.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Why is there so much emphasis on the Red Sox adding a power bat, as opposed to any good bat? I thought we went over it not mattering where the wRC+ comes from as long as it’s high with the Royals a few years ago.

Dave Cameron: Because Dave Dombrowski isn’t exactly building his roster around linear weights.

Dave Cameron: But yes, the Red Sox just need good players, not more power.

ATL: Thx for the chats all year Dave! Does AA have any incentive to trade prospects for mlb producers this year (beside fan impatience), or would it be wiser in your view to wait a year and let some of the top prospects get some MLB action (especially pitching)

Dave Cameron: if you can get value by acquiring a big leaguer, that’s fine. Nothing wrong with the kind of moves MIL made picking up guys like Travis Shaw.

Oleg: If a player is released with a vesting option and gets picked up at the minimum by another team, who pays for the option if it vests?

Dave Cameron: If you get released, your current contract doesn’t carry over to the new team. Your contract only goes with you if you’re traded or claimed on waivers.

Boneless: Does Evan Longoria make the Giants meaningfully better?

Dave Cameron: Sure, because they had nothing at 3B. But we’re talking maybe a couple of wins, because Span was also their best left fielder.

Dave Cameron: Add a couple of wins to the Giants and… they’re still bad.

TKDC: Are people who are bashing the Braves end of the Kemp trade ignoring that McCarthy has real value as a player even if his contract is under water, while Kemp is basically useless?

Dave Cameron: I get why the Braves did it. I’m just not sure McCarthy’s short-term value is enough incentive to help LA like they did.

Dave Cameron: I would have liked to see them get something of long-term value in that deal.

Dungeon Master: If the Red Sox sign JDM, seems like that necessitates a subsequent move…what do you think it is? Salary dump Hanley? Trade JBJ?  What else is on DD’s to-do list?

Dave Cameron: I have every expectation that they’re going to trade Bradley to free up OF at-bats for Martinez.

Dave Cameron: Which is a terrible idea.

Dave Cameron: But it’s what I figure they’ll do.

Erik: Why would the Orioles not grant an extension window for teams trading for Machado? But also, why would Machado agree to an extension?

Dave Cameron: They probably know that there’s no upside to granting an extension window. Manny will just say “no thanks, I’m going to FA”, and then the team might back out knowing they won’t be able to change his mind.

Erik: How close does Nick Williams plus Cesar Hernandez get the Phillies to one of the young, controllable starters who may be on the market (Archer, Duffy, Stroman, Cole)?

Dave Cameron: Not close.

Dave Cameron: I like Hernandez just fine, but there’s a lot of 2B out there these days, and Nick Williams is bad.

Jacob: Because you have a chat right now does that mean someone else has to write the Longoria article?

Dave Cameron: Jeff is doing it, but I would have made him do it anyway since I spent my morning writing up the Machado piece.

Michelle: Do you enjoy the winter meetings?

Dave Cameron: They’re kind of exhausting. I like meeting up with friends I only get to see there, but the long hours aren’t great.

He Hate Me: Assuming BOS lands JDM, is there a bad contract swap out there for Hanley? Maybe something centered around Hanley for Jordan Zimmermann?

Dave Cameron: The problem with trading Hanley is the vesting option. No one wants to pay him $22M in 2019, so the only teams that could think about acquiring him are ones where he wouldn’t have a path to regular playing time.

Dave Cameron: And if you’re trading for a part-time DH, you’re not getting enough value back to make it worthwhile.

JP: Normally if you cut an arbitration-awarded player, you only have to pay 30 days termination pay. Since the Britton hearing hasn’t happened, how does that work? Do they have to go to the hearing and then release him?

Dave Cameron: I asked a friend in the game that very question and he said he didn’t know either. My guess is they’d have to go to the hearing before they can release him, but I’m not sure.

Bear: Objectively, doesn’t it make sense for the Jays to trade Donaldson this winter?  While it admirable that Shapiro is loyal to the 6+ million who have filled the Rogers Centre the past two seasons, this team has more holes than assets.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, the Jays are a distant sixth-best team in the AL. There are clear buyers for Donaldson now, might not be for him in July.

Dan: Is Mitch Moreland really worth two guaranteed years?

Dave Cameron: Nope.

Corey: Are there leaderboards available for career WAR with a specific team? I’m trying to decide whether Longoria or Crawford is the best Ray of all time.

Dave Cameron: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&…

libre: How good is Christian Arroyo?

Dave Cameron: Not very good.

Dave Cameron: There’s contact skills, which means he could turn into more than he is now, but right now it’s low walk, low power, meh defense.

E: Regarding the potential Machado to the Indians trade, have the Indians ever made a ‘rental’ trade like this before? I’m not saying it could never happen but the closest I can recall is the Ubaldo Jimenez deal and well, that was Ubaldo Jimenez and he wasn’t exactly a rental either.

Dave Cameron: Before last year, they hadn’t signed a free agent like Edwin Encarnacion either.

Dave Cameron: Sometimes, opportunity presents itself and you have to take advantage.

JB: If the giants have 15 million left to improve their outfield and stay under the CBT? What would you do given that they need at least 2 outfielders?

Dave Cameron: What would I do? Trade everyone, rebuild.

Dave Cameron: What will they do? Probably sign Jay Bruce and trade for Billy Hamilton.

Rays’ 7th Infielder: I’m taking applications to fandoms of other teams. Please apply below:

*Yankees and Red Sox need not apply*

Dave Cameron: This isn’t the worst time to jump on the Phillies bandwagon.

Dave Cameron: Lots of interesting young guys there, and they could be good as soon as 2019.

Dylan: Return seems light for Longoria no? Arroyo is highly ranked, but there’s a lot to worry about there, and they add to take on Span’s money

Dave Cameron: Longoria’s contract was underwater.

Dave Cameron: You don’t get big returns for guys making more than they’d get in FA.

Shawn: How ridiculous is not trading Machado to the Yankees? It would seem that what they get from a perceived PR gain is not worth the fact that the Yankees probably match up best with the Orioles.

Dave Cameron: If you’re trading Machado, you’re not winning this year, so you shouldn’t care where he spends his last pre-FA year, really.

Dave Cameron: But maybe Angelos is afraid he’ll fall in love with NY and re-sign there.

GP: Has any research been done on the value of incremental wins  per player? It feels like a lot’s been written about teams seeming to value wins at around $8-9M each, but we also know a team will always a 6-win player more valuable than two 3-win players due to scarcity. How much does the dollar value of a player increase from the 1st win to the 2nd win and on from there?

Dave Cameron: It’s mostly linear, or very close to it. Just as extra wins in one roster spot are more valuable, so too is the risk you’re taking by consolidating value into one human being. Risk is part of pricing.

Kevin: What about the angle that injury could increase demand for a SS/3B, where current demand at those positions is relatively low among contenders?

Dave Cameron: It’s possible, but it’s not something one should count on. Plus, if the Jays hold Donaldson, could have even more competition than they do now.

Andrew: Does the Rays trading Longo signal the beginning of a complete teardown? Are we more likely to see Kiermaier and Archer traded now?

Dave Cameron: Sounds like they’re keeping Kiermaier as their new franchise player, but yes, Archer goes.

Jay: Can you expound a bit on your Machado to Cleveland piece? You suggested names like Greg Allen, Erik Gonzalez, as well as Salazar or Clevinger and then Chang. Do you think those names are enough or were you suggesting in addition to 1 of their 2 top prospects (Mejia and Triston McKenzie?) – Also what percent chance do you give Angelos giving the approval to trade Machado anyway?

Dave Cameron: They aren’t trading Mejia or McKenzie for one year of Machado.

Dave Cameron: Clevinger or Salazar and some filler is perfectly fair.

Basil Rathbone Jr: As a Cubs fan I am as concerned about the lead off spot as much as the pitching.  Other than Yelich or Hernandez I don’t see any high OBP/lead off types available for trade.  Any suggestions?

Dave Cameron: Stop caring about batting order.

Lemmer: Odds Archer goes now, and who has most pieces/motivation to get him?

Dave Cameron: Still think he’s a perfect fit for the Cubs.

Dave Cameron: And they have the young hitters to go get him.

Fatt Kemp: Any chance the Dodgers go into Spring training with Matt Kemp on the roster, or would they rather just drop him?

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t be surprised if Kemp is out of baseball now.

Dave Cameron: Replacement level guy that has now burned his way through multiple organizations, basically no upside left. No real reason to roster him.

Sterling Malory Chris Archer: Any updates on if Kiley is going to be chatting?

Dave Cameron: Kiley will be chatting.

Dave Cameron: We’re not entirely done with cool staff announcements, so we’re going to rework our chat schedule a bit in 2018. Stay tuned!

Brendon: How much would Kemp get on the open market?  1year/2mil? NRI?

Dave Cameron: He’s the new Ryan Howard. He might get a minor league deal from someone.

Joseph: Your ESPN.com piece says Rangers should rebuild which is understandable. Two part question, where do you see Gallo’s long term defensive position, and do you think Odor can be an above average regular?

Dave Cameron: Gallo’s got the glove for 3B, so that’s where I’d plan on playing him. Odor looks like a guy who will bounce between having good and bad years, but is roughly average overall.

Rougned Smelly Odor: Do you think a “half year of Machado” return in prospects would be worth more than the competitive balance round B pick the Orioles will get when Machado leaves?

Dave Cameron: Yes

vince clortho: Is Dombrowski really that bad of an executive? Most of the trades have been fine-ish and he dodged the Hosmer bomb! Am I grasping at straws?

Dave Cameron: His primary skill is convincing his owners to spend money.

Dave Cameron: That’s useful!

Dave Cameron: It would just be nice if he knew how to build a roster in some way other than “spend big money/trade my good prospects” for name value guys.

Chicks Dig the Long Ball: You say the giants are bad but they are projected for 81 wins right now. Ahead of the Rockies and 3 wins behind the Diamondbacks. Seems like they can compete to me, especially if they add a couple more wins to their outfield (Jarrod Dyson).

Dave Cameron: Mediocre is probably more fair than bad. But Dyson doesn’t make them good.

Dave Cameron: They’re not close to the legitimately good NL teams.

Geebs: The long term value in that trade for the Braves is a clean payroll slate for next years FA  class. I imagine that with players like these available you free up money in advance. I’m betting Machado in ATL 12 year 425 mil.

Dave Cameron: The Braves could have just chosen to buy out Kemp’s deal and have it all count against their budget this year. They aren’t close to CBT so that calculation doesn’t matter for them.

Dave Cameron: And I don’t see Machado settling for just $35M per year.

Jay: The “just add Todd Frazier” argument for Giants is MUCH easier said than done.  They have to overpay all FAs due to CA taxes and Frazier is an east coast guy.  And if you don’t value Arroyo much, then especially with cash offset, don’t see how Longo trade is noticeably different than adding Frazier.

Dave Cameron: Frazier currently doesn’t have a job or any suitors. The 3B FA market is overcrowded and there aren’t that many buyers for the position. He could easily end up getting a 1 year deal in February at this rate.

Dave Cameron: So, no, this isn’t the same thing as signing Frazier.

Sharp: Duquette saying to MASN that they’re not happy with offers and if they don’t get better by tomorrow then they’re not going to deal Manny.  Just a stunt, or would they really just be petulant and not deal him because they disagree with value?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think the Orioles actually understand market value very well.

Dave Cameron: And who knows what they’re going to do.

Christian Arroyo: My upside = Placido Polanco at 3b.  T/F?

Dave Cameron: Sounds about right.

Brett W: Did the Rays go from ok to less ok without getting much in future talent or salary relief? I don’t get it from their side.

Dave Cameron: They saved $75M.

Paul: If you were the Braves and had to finally package prospects for MLB talent, would you rather pay big for Yelich or Archer?

Dave Cameron: Yelich

Matty P: strongly disagree with your stance on Longo, I think he could very well put up a 5 war season this year

Dave Cameron: Anything is possible. Pablo Sandoval could have too!

steve: Curious why you think Nick Williams is “bad”?

Dave Cameron: Lousy control of the strike zone, moderate power, bad defense.

Oddball Herrera: Re: Kemp, since a team would probably be paying next to nothing for him, you really think that a team like the Twins wouldn’t at least bring him to spring training to see if he can work out as a DH?  We’re talking about a spot currently occupied by Robbie Grossman…

Dave Cameron: Grossman is better than Kemp.

Colin : What kind of deal do you see Donaldson getting? 5 years for 125 million?

Dave Cameron: Way more than that.

Jkim: Kemp could have some value if the Dodgers eat up most of his salary – say the other team pays him 3-4m/yr as a DH no?

Teams like White Sox or others w/ a DH problem could take a swing at him I think. IF he were to be a full time DH I think he could still produce 105-110 wRC+

Dave Cameron: That’s replacement level for a guy who can’t run.

Dave Cameron: Chris Carter got non-tendered twice with that skillset.

Other Jay: I’m confused on why there isn’t more chatter around Todd Frazier going to Atlanta. He seems like the perfect fit for a 2-3 year deal while they wait for Riley (if he will continue to be considered the future 3B) and stick in the lineup behind Freeman. Plus, if they add Yelich on top of that, that lineups actually turns into something mildly dangerous.

Dave Cameron: Sounds like they think Riley might be ready in 2019

Dave Cameron: So they’re only looking at one year options.

Dave Cameron: Alright, that’s going to do it for me today.

Dave Cameron: Hope everyone has a great Christmas/Hannukah/other holiday. I’m taking most of next week off to hang out with my family, but we’ll be back after the new year for another chat, and maybe some free agents will have signed by then.

Dave Cameron: Talk to you guys in a few weeks.