Detroit Tigers Top 31 Prospects

Kirthmon F. Dozier/USA TODAY NETWORK

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Detroit Tigers. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the fourth year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here.

Tigers Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Jackson Jobe 21.5 AA SP 2025 55
2 Max Clark 18.6 A CF 2027 50
3 Colt Keith 22.4 AAA 2B 2024 50
4 Jace Jung 23.3 AA 3B 2024 50
5 Ty Madden 23.9 AA SP 2024 45
6 Parker Meadows 24.2 MLB CF 2024 45
7 Kevin McGonigle 19.4 A SS 2026 45
8 Troy Melton 23.1 A+ SP 2026 45
9 Wilmer Flores 22.9 AA MIRP 2024 40+
10 Dillon Dingler 25.3 AAA C 2024 40+
11 Justyn-Henry Malloy 23.9 AAA 3B 2025 40+
12 Josue Briceno 19.3 A C 2028 40+
13 Tyler Mattison 24.4 AA SIRP 2025 40+
14 Peyton Graham 23.0 A SS 2027 40+
15 Paul Wilson 18.6 R SP 2028 40
16 Sawyer Gipson-Long 26.1 MLB MIRP 2024 40
17 Brant Hurter 25.4 AA MIRP 2025 40
18 Danny Serretti 23.7 AA SS 2026 40
19 Hao-Yu Lee 21.0 A+ 2B 2025 40
20 Max Anderson 21.4 A 2B 2026 40
21 Enrique Jimenez 18.2 R C 2029 35+
22 Keider Montero 23.5 AAA SP 2024 35+
23 Dylan Smith 23.6 AA SP 2025 35+
24 Gage Workman 24.2 AA SS 2025 35+
25 Trei Cruz 25.5 AA CF 2024 35+
26 Carson Rucker 19.4 R 3B 2029 35+
27 Devin Sweet 27.4 MLB SIRP 2024 35+
28 RJ Petit 24.3 AA SIRP 2025 35+
29 Yosber Sanchez 22.7 A SIRP 2026 35+
30 Andrew Dunford 19.0 R SP 2029 35+
31 Nestor Miranda 17.9 R 1B 2030 35+
Reading Options
Detail Level
Data Only
Full
Position Filter

55 FV Prospects

1. Jackson Jobe, SP

Drafted: 1st Round, 2021 from Heritage Hall HS (DET)
Age 21.5 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 55
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
50/60 50/60 55/60 45/60 40/50 93-95 / 99

Jobe was the consensus top high school arm in the 2021 draft and earned a bonus of nearly $7 million as the third overall pick. He had a somewhat rocky first full season in pro ball; his velocity was down a bit compared to his peak pre-draft look and he ran a FIP over 5.00 across 18 starts with Lakeland. Hitters seemed unphased by Jobe’s trademark curveball despite its elite spin and huge depth. He struggled to throw strikes and the visual quality of his stuff regressed. Then Job was put on the IL to start 2023 and missed two and a half months recovering from lumbar spine inflammation, which is more a description of symptoms than a root cause, as this kind of inflammation can be brought on by arthritis, infection, or any number of other maladies. When Jobe returned in mid-June, he did so with a vengeance. Across 20 starts combined between the regular season and the Arizona Fall League, Jobe tallied 103 strikeouts and just 11 walks in 79.2 IP. His fastball velocity was living in the upper reaches of his career-long band, often touching 98-99.

Perhaps more significantly, Jobe has scrapped his curveball. He now utilizes a firm 87-92 mph cutter and a low-80s sweeper, and has upped his changeup usage considerably. Both of his new breaking balls have the same elite spin Jobe could create on his curveball, though neither of them has consistent shape nor finish yet. Considering he’s only used those new pitches for half a season and can spin them like he does, I’m projecting growth for both offerings. His changeup is arguably his most switched-on secondary now, as Jobe uses it against both lefties and righties. The changes he’s made in response to the ineffectiveness of his 2022 breaking ball have made Jobe a more complete pitcher. Will we see this kind of velocity from him across 120-140 innings? And will Jobe’s back issues be a persistent part of his career? These are reasonable things to wonder, but right now Jobe looks healthy, nasty, and fairly ready to pitch in the big leagues. Jobe isn’t on the 40-man yet (he doesn’t have to go on until after the 2025 season) and the Tigers have a ton of starter depth in front of him right now, but it’s feasible that at some point in the middle of 2024, he’ll be one of Detroit’s best five healthy starters.

50 FV Prospects

2. Max Clark, CF

Drafted: 1st Round, 2023 from Franklin HS (IN) (DET)
Age 18.6 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr L / L FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/70 40/45 20/45 70/70 40/55 40

Clark was a well-known, top-of-his-class high schooler several years before he was draft eligible because of his consistent, superlative performance in travel ball tournaments. He has sublime feel for contact and can really run, presenting the Tigers with an old school leadoff hitter’s profile as he enters pro ball.

You Aren't a FanGraphs Member
It looks like you aren't yet a FanGraphs Member (or aren't logged in). We aren't mad, just disappointed.
We get it. You want to read this article. But before we let you get back to it, we'd like to point out a few of the good reasons why you should become a Member.
1. Ad Free viewing! We won't bug you with this ad, or any other.
2. Unlimited articles! Non-Members only get to read 10 free articles a month. Members never get cut off.
3. Dark mode and Classic mode!
4. Custom player page dashboards! Choose the player cards you want, in the order you want them.
5. One-click data exports! Export our projections and leaderboards for your personal projects.
6. Remove the photos on the home page! (Honestly, this doesn't sound so great to us, but some people wanted it, and we like to give our Members what they want.)
7. Even more Steamer projections! We have handedness, percentile, and context neutral projections available for Members only.
8. Get FanGraphs Walk-Off, a customized year end review! Find out exactly how you used FanGraphs this year, and how that compares to other Members. Don't be a victim of FOMO.
9. A weekly mailbag column, exclusively for Members.
10. Help support FanGraphs and our entire staff! Our Members provide us with critical resources to improve the site and deliver new features!
We hope you'll consider a Membership today, for yourself or as a gift! And we realize this has been an awfully long sales pitch, so we've also removed all the other ads in this article. We didn't want to overdo it.

With barrel control well beyond his years, Clark has rare hit tool projection for a high school prospect, spraying flush, all-fields contact with remarkable consistency. Though his swing doesn’t feature big lift and Clark lacks overt, frame-based power projection, the amount of contact he makes and its quality should enable him to hit for plenty of in-game power in pro ball — it will just likely manifest as 40 or 50 doubles rather than 30-plus home runs.

Clark has Corbin Carroll’s high school skill set with something closer to a prototypical major league build and more present physicality than Carroll had at the same stage. It’s not as though Clark is put together like high school Manny Machado or Ken Griffey Jr., but he’s sinewy and strong, especially in his lower half. While some weight room warriors (like Spencer Torkelson and Jarred Kelenic) may have gotten so muscular and stiff that they began to have problems dipping to contact pitches low in the strike zone, Clark’s natural barrel feel should help mitigate this. He has special hit tool projection and speed, the latter of which should help enable him to stay in center field even though his feel for the position is only fair. Clark projects as an everyday center fielder whose pathway to superstardom is dependent on him either developing more home run power than I expect, or having elite plate discipline and on-base ability. He chased so infrequently after the draft that I believe the latter scenario stands a better chance of happening.

3. Colt Keith, 2B

Drafted: 5th Round, 2020 from Biloxi HS (MS) (DET)
Age 22.4 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 245 Bat / Thr L / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/50 70/70 45/60 30/30 30/30 30

Keith was a talented two-way high schooler who moved from Utah to Arizona to Mississippi over the span of just a few years, and his draft spring was interrupted by the start of the pandemic. Teams mostly understood his commitment to ASU to be pretty loose, and Keith signed for an over-slot $500,000 as a fifth rounder in the 2020 draft. Injuries limited him during his first two full seasons in the Tigers org, but he mashed when he played. He looked great during the 2022 Arizona Fall League, then clubbed nearly 70 extra-base hits in 126 games throughout a fully healthy 2023 split between Double- and Triple-A. During his stay in Toledo, Keith began to see more time at second base rather than his native third. He’s a bad defender at both spots but has a much greater chance at becoming passable (read: hidden) at second, where some of Keith’s issues with throwing are masked. There really isn’t anyone of offensive consequence standing in Keith’s way at the big league level, either at second base or third. If he keeps hitting like he was late in 2023, and as long as he’s not embarrassing himself at second base, he should be up at some point in 2024.

Keith’s offensive prowess is rooted in his raw power. He nearly killed managing editor Meg Rowley and her laptop in the auxiliary press box during his Futures Game BP when two or three of his dingers clanged off the face of the deck above her. Keith clocks fastballs well and is short to the top of the strike zone. He struggles with soft stuff in the bottom third of the zone, especially changeups, which he tends to swing over the top of. This will likely prevent Keith from being a plus contact hitter, but I don’t view him as being so risky in this regard that it threatens his whole profile. He’s a flawed player and his WAR output will be impacted by his lack of position, but Keith is going to slug enough to profile as either a DH or bad-gloved second baseman.

Keith has bulked up considerably since signing, and the effects of his increased size are evident on defense. Once a fair bet to stay on the middle infield, he is now fighting just to stay at third. He is stiff and bulky, his actions are well below average, and while he shows you a big arm when he gets to wind up and really let it eat, he struggles to throw from odd platforms. It’s feasible a team could live with him playing third base situationally, but it’s not ideal, and Colt is a 30-grade defender right now. He is similar to Nolan Gorman in the way he has trended athletically on defense, but there’s enough bat to support an everyday fit at the bottom of the defensive spectrum.

4. Jace Jung, 3B

Drafted: 1st Round, 2022 from Texas Tech (DET)
Age 23.3 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 230 Bat / Thr L / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 60/60 50/60 30/30 30/40 55

Jung hit .328/.468/.647 over his career at Texas Tech, with more walks than strikeouts every single year, and despite lacking an obvious defensive home, he was one of the 2022 draft’s most stable prospects because of his track record. Jung seemed gassed after the draft and hit just one homer in 30 games, but his power output exploded in 2023; he clubbed 28 homers, half of them in just 47 Double-A contests during the last month and a half of the season. After 128 regular season games, Jung was sent to the Arizona Fall League, where he played third base. Since his sophomore year of college he had only played second base, and while he’s a capable pivot man on double plays, Jung is otherwise a below-average keystone defender. Some of what Jung struggled with at second base will follow him to third, but his lack of footspeed will be less of an issue, and Jung’s arm looked suited for the left side of the infield during his Fall League trial. Ideally Jung can be capable enough to shuttle back and forth between both spots.

Jung is dangerous all over the zone. He can crush pitches on the outer third into the oppo gap, and he’ll hit some epic pull-side homers. His swing has big, aggressive launch and he has enough feel for the barrel to weaponize it, though his style of hitting does cause him to whiff quite a bit in the strike zone. He does skilled, hitterish things in order to slug, but because of his style, Jung is likely to make below-average rates of contact. Ryan McMahon, or perhaps the last few years of Max Muncy (without such good plate discipline), is a good barometer for what to expect from Jung: a below-average infield athlete who trades a little bit of contact to get to huge power. Jung and Colt Keith are both talented enough to win jobs at some point fairly early in 2024. Keith is a second base-only fit for me if he’s going to play the infield at all, which would force Jung to third if both of them ascend. Though flawed, Jung should slug enough to produce like a 2-ish WAR player annually and be a core build-around guy in Detroit.

45 FV Prospects

5. Ty Madden, SP

Drafted: 1st Round, 2021 from Texas (DET)
Age 23.9 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
55/55 55/60 50/50 45/50 40/50 45/50 93-95 / 98

Madden has a prototypical starter’s scouting package, with a classic, innings-eating frame and a deep repertoire. He spent all of 2023 at Double-A Erie, where he chugged through 118 innings with a 29.7% K% and slightly discouraging 10.2% walk rate. After he was a north/south arm slot guy in college, Madden and the Tigers have worked to alter his delivery over the course of the last couple of seasons. His arm slot has come down more and more as he has adopted a more three-quarters slot, as well as more overt drop-and-drive usage in his lower half. The results have mostly been encouraging, as the shallower angle this creates on his fastball has fostered more in-zone bat-missing ability and better natural action on a changeup that needed to develop for Madden to hit his ceiling.

I think that some of his uncharacteristic wildness in 2023 was simply from this delivery being relatively new. Madden’s walk rate was high, but he has pitchability elements. He can manipulate breaking ball shape and either throw his slider for a strike or bury it for whiffs, he has a low-90s cutter that he’s still getting a feel for, and he knows where in the zone his fastball plays. Even in his final start of the year, Madden was parked in the 94-95 mph range. I consider him a high-probability no. 4/5 starter whose ETA is more likely 2025 due to the sudden glut of healthy and veteran options who are now ahead of Madden on the depth chart.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2018 from Grayson HS (GA) (DET)
Age 24.2 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr L / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/40 50/55 40/50 60/60 50/50 60

Meadows’ strikeout rate ticked back up again after a 2022 reduction, as he slashed .256/.337/.474 with a 23.8% K% and career-high 19 home runs with Toledo. He ended his season with 37 games at the big league level, pushing very near (but not past) the 45-day/130 at-bat rookie graduation boundaries as he slashed .232/.331/.368 with three more homers and a .308 wOBA, plus a superior .324 xwOBA based on his quality of contact. It’s about as big a major league sample as one can have to gauge a prospect without him graduating, and that xwOBA is above the big league average in center field. And Meadows is going to stay in center. Even at his size, he’s a comfortably plus runner who looked crisp patrolling Comerica Park’s sizable path of real estate in September.

Meadows is a little too long and vulnerable against up-and-away fastballs to project sustained offensive performance at this level, and he swings inside a lot of righty changeups as he cheats to try to cover that pitch. Execute a belt-high fastball and soft pitch away from him in sequence, and you’re either getting him out or limiting his raw power. He lacks the plus offensive attribute of an impact everyday player, but Meadows can oppo-poke soft pitches that don’t quite finish, and he crushes heart-of-the-plate mistakes. He’s a competent and dangerous enough left-handed player to project as a complementary regular, the lefty half of a center field platoon.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2023 from Monsignor Bonner HS (PA) (DET)
Age 19.4 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 187 Bat / Thr L / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 40/45 20/35 55/55 40/50 60

McGonigle’s well-rounded skill set makes him a high-probability big leaguer, perhaps more likely to play some kind of big league role than any other high school player drafted in 2023, but his ceiling is likely capped by what I perceive to be mature physicality that doesn’t leave much room for projection.

As impressive as McGonigle’s physical tools are — he has plus bat-to-ball ability, surprising power for his size, and a plus arm — his on-field acumen and fundamentals also carry a ton of weight. He has fantastic baseball feel and instincts, a well-calibrated internal clock at shortstop, and he appears laser focused and competitive between the lines. Unless you’re fearful that his present physicality is an indicator that he’ll eventually be too bulky to move around on the middle infield, McGonigle is a slam dunk shortstop with enough contact ability and plate discipline to have average everyday shortstop upside and a good utilityman’s floor. McGonigle is currently strong enough to do doubles damage in both gaps and to drop the bat head to golf out some pull-side homers, but his maxed-out build doesn’t allow for much long-term power projection, which is why he’s perceived to have a lower ceiling.

8. Troy Melton, SP

Drafted: 4th Round, 2022 from San Diego State (DET)
Age 23.1 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 55/60 50/50 45/55 35/55 94-96 / 98

Melton was one of the youngest college prospects available in the 2021 draft as well as a plus on-mound athlete, so when he had a really rough season with an ERA just over 6.00, it was easier to swallow a return to San Diego State. Melton reworked his arm action, had a great fourth year as an Aztec, and climbed into the fourth round of the 2022 draft. Melton was mostly drafted because he has a live arm and his mechanical adjustments made his fastball less hittable; the Tigers were tasked with developing the rest. They’ve begun to. Melton made substantial alterations to his slider in 2023, as the pitch picked up roughly five ticks of velocity compared to his college breaker. At times, it has devastating two-plane sweep.

There are an awful lot of late-bloomer traits here, as Melton was young for his graduating class, was mostly a catcher in high school, missed a season due to the pandemic, and now has a fairly new delivery and a very new breaking ball. I love Melton’s bounding, down-the-mound mechanics and his athleticism (big lower half bend and hip/shoulder separation here), and I think he may just be scratching the surface as a craftsman. Even though there are pitchers with similar or currently better stuff who are closer to the big leagues, I consider Melton’s chances of holding down a rotation spot for a contender down the road to be greater. If he continues developing at the rate he did in 2023, he’ll be a top 100 prospect a year from now.

40+ FV Prospects

9. Wilmer Flores, MIRP

Undrafted Free Agent, 2020 (DET)
Age 22.9 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Cutter Command Sits/Tops
45/55 55/60 45/50 40/45 92-94 / 97

Born in Venezuela and signed out of an Arizona junior college, Flores stomped onto the prospect radar throughout the 2021 season, which he wrapped peaking in the 97-98 mph range with a hammer breaking ball in the Arizona Fall League. His velocity has slowly been ticking down since then, and he sat mostly 92-94 in 2023 as he made 21 regular season starts (interrupted by a hammy strain) and then did a mix of starting and relieving in yet another Fall League.

His fastball still has in-zone bat-missing ability thanks to its other traits, but it isn’t the dominant offering of late 2021. Flores still has two good-looking breaking balls — a spike curveball and a cutter — that looked better to my eye in Arizona than they played on paper during the regular season. His knuckle curve’s shape plays nicely off his fastball, and Flores’ cutter/slider has above-average length, but varies in shape. He threw changeups at an 8% clip during the summer, but I didn’t see one in Arizona. He’s now on the 40-man, but the Tigers don’t need to rush a decision as to whether or not Flores is a starter or multi-inning reliever. He has all three option years left, and they have a fairly deep group of starters ahead of him after adding Jack Flaherty and Kenta Maeda in free agency. If you could guarantee me that Flores’ fastball would sit in the mid-90s if he was allowed to air it out an inning or two at a time, I’d prefer that to the low-90s starter version of him. I’m projecting him in relief here, but again, the Tigers have the depth and flexibility to see how things go with Flores as a starter for another year.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2020 from Ohio State (DET)
Age 25.3 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/30 50/50 30/40 45/45 45/55 70

Dingler has a luxury backup catching skill set similar to Jake Rogers‘, headlined by premium arm strength and limited by a bottom-of-the-scale contact ability. Dingler has lost a great many reps to injury — broken hamate, broken finger, and a 2023 meniscus surgery — and I suppose you could argue his hit tool will have late growth as he gets deeper into his 20s, but I am not inclined to project that. I do think he’ll have some peak years where, like Rogers or Austin Hedges, Dingler gets to enough of his power to perform like an average primary catcher, but he’ll likely be a runner-stopping backup for the bulk of his time as a big leaguer. Dingler began catching on one knee coming off the meniscectomy and took to it rather smoothly. He’s still not a great receiver, but neither his ball-blocking nor his throwing have suffered because of the move. Dingler routinely pops in the 1.80s and uncorked an all-world 1.7-second lightning bolt to the bag in late September with Toledo. He’s a medium-framed athlete who has been hurt a lot, which further funnels him into the backup bucket, but Dingler’s power and arm strength give him a pretty juicy toolset for someone in that role.

Drafted: 6th Round, 2021 from Georgia Tech (ATL)
Age 23.9 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 212 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 60/60 45/50 40/40 30/35 55

Malloy was a raw but toolsy third baseman at a New Jersey high school in 2018, but a strong commitment to Vanderbilt prevented him from getting much actual pre-draft consideration. Two years of struggles with the Commodores resulted in just 39 total at-bats before Malloy transferred to Georgia Tech for his junior year. He slashed .308/.436/.558 with more walks than strikeouts as a Yellowjacket in 2021, his only collegiate season with actual playing time. Without a clear defensive position, Malloy fell all the way to Atlanta’s sixth round pick. Within a year and a half, Malloy had coasted through Double-A and a great Arizona Fall League stint with a career OBP north of .400. The Braves traded him to Detroit for Joe Jiménez during the 2022-23 offseason, and Malloy produced another huge, OBP-driven .277/.417/.474 line in 2023 with Toledo.

While not yet on the 40-man roster, Malloy is in position to compete for big league playing time in 2024 as Detroit’s third base situation evolves. Like most of the Tigers’ other upper-level position player prospects, he is not a particularly good defensive infielder. After he only played the infield in college, the Braves and Tigers have given Malloy about 50 starts in the outfield corners each of the past two seasons, and while he doesn’t look especially comfortable there, his air-it-out arm strength is plus.

Malloy’s thunderous hands create big power in a short distance, and he’s capable of torching pull-side contact, but I don’t believe he has quite enough hit tool to be a regular corner outfielder or third baseman. Big league pitchers will bully JHM in the parts of the strike zone that he struggles to cover, and in addition to the whiffs, I worry his plate skills won’t shine quite like they have so far because big leaguers know they can get him out in the strike zone. His best shot at securing a meaningful big league role includes defensive versatility that isn’t yet present in his skill set.

There is still some ironing out do to on defense, but the Tigers have the luxury of another year to do it before Malloy has to be put on the 40-man, and the field of similar players ahead of him is pretty dense, which makes me think it’s more likely that Malloy will debut in 2025 than in 2024. I have cautious optimism that Malloy’s defense will develop enough for him to play a role like J.D. Davis has in San Francisco.

12. Josue Briceno, C

Signed: International Signing Period, 2022 from Venezuela (DET)
Age 19.3 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/50 45/60 25/55 30/20 20/40 55

After a pedestrian 2022 DSL statline, Briceno had a monstrous 2023 on the Lakeland complex, where he slashed .319/.402/.529 with seven homers. He’s a huge-framed lefty-hitting catcher with nearly average raw power already at age 19. Briceno was among this system’s hard-hit rate leaders at a whopping 42%, one of the few lower-level hitters consistently hitting the ball 95-plus mph. His frame has trended in a somewhat scary direction since entering pro ball, as Briceno was a lean 6-foot-4, 200 pounds when he signed and is now probably closer to 230. That happened pretty fast, and he might end up being too big to catch for very long.

Briceno’s feel for contact and power potential give him a puncher’s chance of profiling at first base even if he ends up having to move. His swing has a swooping path capable of oppo spray, and he’s going to be strong enough to do big damage that way at maturity. Whether Briceno and his long levers will be able to catch up to premium, upper-level velocity we just won’t know until he faces it. He ended 2023 at Low-A Lakeland and is poised to be 19 for all of a full-season assignment in 2024. He arguably has the most overt upside of any low-level Tigers prospect besides Max Clark, and if Briceno can remain a catcher, you could argue his ceiling is even bigger than that because he has more overt power projection than Clark. Teenage catchers are already one of the riskiest player demos, but Briceno could be 2024’s Samuel Basallo.

13. Tyler Mattison, SIRP

Drafted: 4th Round, 2021 from Bryant University (DET)
Age 24.4 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 235 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 55/55 55/60 35/40 94-96 / 98

Mattison had a breakout 2023, as he added two and a half ticks to his fastball and was sitting 94-96 rather than just peaking in that range. Mattison’s fastball has always punched above its weight because of its carry and his deceptive delivery, but now it’s also fast, giving him three bat-missing offerings. Mattison also has a vertical curveball that sometimes has some arm-side movement that makes it a weapon against both lefties and righties. He still only uses his tailing mid-80s changeup occasionally, but that pitch had an absurd miss rate against lefties in 2023, north of 50%. Mattison’s leap in velo, repertoire depth, and ability to attack hitters of either handedness makes him more exciting that most middle relief prospects. I expect a September debut and think Mattison could end up working higher-leverage situations once he’s established.

14. Peyton Graham, SS

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2022 from Oklahoma (DET)
Age 23.0 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/35 50/60 35/50 50/50 45/55 70

I believed Graham’s combination of tools and body projection to be so exceptional and rare that he ranked 10th on my 2022 Draft list. Due to the risk associated with his hit tool, there was a gap between that ranking and where the industry saw him, and Graham fell to the second round and signed for $1.8 million.

Graham has impressive all-fields power even though he’s rail-thin, and his frame has room for another 15-20 pounds before compromising his mobility at short. He is an incredible athlete for his size, playing low-to-the-ground defense and showing big league-level comfort backhanding balls in the hole, hosing guys with his plus-plus arm. After he looked lost at the plate early during his junior year, Graham righted the ship and was much better during conference play, and he ended his college career hitting .320/.415/.584 while striking out 21% of the time. He has been conservatively assigned to Low-A Lakeland since signing with Detroit and hasn’t exactly blown the doors off, as he’s slashed .244/.341/.360 in 81 total games there, with his 2023 cut short by an abdominal strain.

There are hit tool issues here that threaten Graham’s whole profile. His pitch recognition (especially against sliders) and bat control aren’t very good, and he tends to swing through a narrow band of the zone, not showing great tactile feel to hit. It’s possible Graham will develop finer barrel control as he gets stronger and no longer has to incorporate his entire body to swing hard. That would perhaps help him move the barrel around with greater precision, but the slider recognition piece still looms. There are several hit tool bust risk indicators here, from Graham’s lever length to his slider chase, and it might be foolish to continue to be seduced by hitters like this. But the high-end outcomes for Graham are exciting and huge, and I want to round up on how I’m valuing him even though he has a high-risk evaluation. So much of this is predicated on him staying at shortstop, the aspect of his profile I’m the most confident in. Big Graham years will look like Willy Adames‘ usual line, but it’s much more likely he ends up tracking like Jose Barrero or Tim Beckham.

40 FV Prospects

15. Paul Wilson, SP

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2023 from Lakeridge HS (OR) (DET)
Age 18.6 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr R / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
40/45 20/50 45/50 40/50 20/55 92-94 / 95

Wilson is a solid high school lefty starter prospect with low-to-mid-90s heat and a good breaking ball, the sort who tends to get about $1 million – $1.5 million. Wilson signed for $1.7 million and did not pitch after the draft. He has a little less physical projection than is ideal from a high school prospect, but Wilson was throwing quality strikes with 92-94 mph velo. Aside from some inconsistency getting over his front side, his delivery is repeatable and consistent, and he’ll likely throw enough strikes to start. A mid-to-upper-70s curveball has average depth and middling consistency. There’s a perfectly fine foundation for a slow-developing no. 4/5 starter prospect here.

16. Sawyer Gipson-Long, MIRP

Drafted: 6th Round, 2019 from Mercer (MIN)
Age 26.1 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
40/40 60/60 50/55 45/50 91-93 / 96

Acquired from Minnesota for Michael Fulmer, Gipson-Long has carved out a place on Detroit’s 40-man roster and is poised to play either a spot start or long relief role in 2024 after making his debut in 2023. Both his changeup and slider are plus pitches that play down a bit due to SGL’s control-over-command style. There was a long stretch where Gipson-Long was only walking about 5% of opposing batters. On paper, that looks like high-end command, but the eyeball scouting report doesn’t corroborate that. Gipson-Long lives in or near the zone because his line to the plate is so assertive and direct, but he doesn’t have surgical touch-and-feel command, especially of his fastball.

Built like a statuesque quarterback, Gipson-Long takes a big, cross-bodied stride toward the plate, and works from a low-three-quarters arm slot that imparts sink and tail on his low-90s fastball. Hitters who struggle with low-slot righties aside, Gipson-Long’s fastball is fairly hittable, especially once opponents get a feel for his delivery. This is why he might be best suited for long relief, where he can lean even more heavily on his secondary pitches (his slider has big two-plane action, his changeup sinks a ton) and be a less efficient strike-thrower without knock-on effects for the rest of the pitching staff.

17. Brant Hurter, MIRP

Drafted: 7th Round, 2021 from Georgia Tech (DET)
Age 25.4 Height 6′ 6″ Weight 250 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
35/35 60/60 50/55 50/60 89-93 / 95

Hurter had Tommy John in 2019 and missed the 2020 season, which would have been his draft year at Georgia Tech. He made 15 healthy starts the following year and showed much better command than is typical for someone fresh off of surgery, ending up in the 2021 seventh round. The Tigers pushed him quickly in 2022, Hurter’s first full pro season, as he pitched 106.2 innings and reached Double-A, where he then spent all of 2023. Last year I wrote that Hurter looked like a lefty specialist, but his changeup has improved enough to give him a platoon-neutralizing weapon if he needs it. I still don’t think Hurter is a starter, as pitchers with his level of athleticism and a delivery like his are much more commonly found in the bullpen. But now that he has a changeup, and has demonstrated terrific east/west fastball command, one can see Hurter in an important bulk relief role.

18. Danny Serretti, SS

Drafted: 6th Round, 2022 from North Carolina (DET)
Age 23.7 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr S / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/55 40/40 30/35 40/40 40/45 55

He has a softer build and lacks quickness and range, but Serretti is a technically sound, well-rounded baseball player with great defensive hands and actions, and feel for contact from both sides of the plate. Unselected in the 2021 draft, Serretti returned to North Carolina for a fourth season and had a huge uptick in production, buoying his stock into the sixth round where he signed for just shy of $300,000, atypical for a fourth-year player. Serretti showed a continued upward trend in production as a pro until his offensive performance fell off a cliff when he was promoted to age-appropriate Double-A Erie. He’s not an especially explosive athlete, but he is graceful and in control of his body, which is composed like a soft serve Bryson Stott. His creativity and balletic footwork around the bag make him a shortstop fit.

So we have a switch-hitting shortstop with demonstrated bat-to-ball ability, a very strong heuristic profile undercut by a below-average level of overall athleticism. It’s important for Serretti to retain every inch of his range to continue profiling as a viable shortstop defender. His bat-to-ball ability sets him apart from some of the other low-ceiling utility infielders in this system.

19. Hao-Yu Lee, 2B

Signed: International Signing Period, 2021 from Taiwan (PHI)
Age 21.0 Height 5′ 9″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 50/55 30/50 40/30 30/40 50

Lee has dealt with injury for much of the past half decade. He suffered a severe back injury as an amateur before he signed with the Phillies for $600,000, and he’s been limited to fewer than 80 regular season games each of the past two years due to a broken hand in 2022 and a strained quad suffered just a couple weeks after the Tigers acquired him from Philly for Michael Lorenzen at the 2023 trade deadline.

While reduced sample sizes as a result of his injuries make this a bit less settled than I’d like, there are some statistical red flags here that caused me to slide Lee pretty substantially on this pass through the Tigers system. Chiefly, Lee struggles to hit fastballs. The way his swing works (he’s a bucket strider with a path that tends to produce opposite field contact, in the style of a righty, less twitchy Eddie Rosario) not only makes it very difficult for Lee to pull fastballs, but to hit them at all. Synergy Sports has him hitting just .160 against fastballs 88 mph and above in a 150-pitch sample generated by tracking 2023 Jersey Shore and West Michigan broadcasts. This, in concert with my Fall League look — during which Lee was regularly getting worked by fastballs around his hands — has me pretty skeptical that this is going to work even though Lee’s full-season contact data against all pitch types is closer to big league average. The big-bodied Lee needs to mash in order to profile because he’ll likely be a below-average 2B/3B defender due to a lack of range and athleticism, and I think it will only get harder for him to do so as he faces better velocity and pitchers who are better at determining and exploiting hitter weaknesses.

20. Max Anderson, 2B

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2023 from Nebraska (DET)
Age 21.4 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/35 55/60 30/50 50/50 40/50 60

Anderson is a very physical second baseman with plus bat speed. He hit (this is not a typo) .414/.461/.771 as a junior and more than doubled his career home run total with 21 bombs. Why wasn’t he a first rounder? His swing might not play in pro ball. Anderson is great at identifying and barreling low pitches, but his path is often underneath stuff at the belt and above. He’s often bent at the waist and spraying contact to the opposite field with his bottom hand-dominant swing, and he rarely pulls the ball (a common trait among hitters in this system). When he connects, Anderson puts a huge charge into the baseball, it’s just possible he won’t connect enough in pro ball.

He saw action all over the infield in college and was fine at both second and third base; after the draft, he only played second base at Lakeland. Even if he’s flawed as a contact hitter, so long as Anderson can play two spots, he has enough power to carry a part-time infield profile. However, the track record of players who enter this system with hit tool question marks and come out the other end having answered them has not been great lately. Anderson also did a lot of chasing in his 32-game pro sample. I can see why the Tigers wanted to take a shot on his power, even though it isn’t something I’d have done in the second round for just shy of $1.5 million.

35+ FV Prospects

Signed: International Signing Period, 2023 from Venezuela (DET)
Age 18.2 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr S / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 40/45 20/40 30/30 40/50 50

An international scout cross-checking his own reports on the 2023 international class with players’ 2023 DSL performances told me he thought Jimenez, who signed for $1.25 million, had a strong enough summer to reinforce his bonus amount. The stocky, switch-hitting catcher was tied for the Tigers DSL lead in hard-hit rate (31%), posted a 91% in-zone contact rate, and looks the part from a bat speed and barrel control standpoint, especially as a right-handed hitter. He’s a well-rounded hitter who has a shot to play a premium position with development.

22. Keider Montero, SP

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Venezuela (DET)
Age 23.5 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 50/50 50/50 40/40 40/40 93-95 / 96

For the past two seasons, Montero has maintained arm strength (sitting 93-96 mph) that he had only ever shown in short bursts before. In 2023, he did so across just shy of 130 innings. Despite his natural talent for spin (his curveballs and sliders often reside in the 2,650-2,900 rpm range), Montero hasn’t yet developed a good secondary pitch. He will deliver the occasional plus breaking ball, but his lack of command hinders either’s ability to be perform consistently. It would be a shame to waste Montero’s durability in a relief role, but he doesn’t have the pitch mix to comfortably project as a starter. Still just 23 and entering his first option year, Montero has a better chance to find a good second pitch if he’s forced to use them a lot working through the order multiple times. He’ll likely spend his option years back and forth from Toledo before hopefully gaining traction as a workhorse middle reliever.

23. Dylan Smith, SP

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2021 from Alabama (DET)
Age 23.6 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Splitter Command Sits/Tops
40/40 55/60 50/50 40/45 35/55 91-94 / 96

Smith was a pitchability righty who broke out during his draft year at Alabama. He missed a large portion of the 2023 summer with a forearm strain, and headed to the Arizona Fall League to pick up innings. In Arizona, Smith was a bit Jekyll and Hyde. In some outings, he was precisely locating 91-93 and his average slider; in others, he was wild and sitting 93-96 for a few innings. Smith’s slider has nasty late bite and bat-missing length. I’m skeptical that he’ll ever be able to sit 93-96 for an entire season as a starter and prefer the surgical version of him, sitting 91-94 with an east/west style of operation. He still needs to find a third viable pitch if he’s going to profile snuggly in the back of a rotation, so for now I have Smith projected as a spot starter.

24. Gage Workman, SS

Drafted: 4th Round, 2020 from Arizona State (DET)
Age 24.2 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 202 Bat / Thr S / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/20 50/55 30/40 55/55 55/60 70

The presence of Alika Williams and Drew Swift at Arizona State pushed Workman from shortstop to third base in college, but he’s successfully moved back up the defensive spectrum as a pro; he is now an above-average shortstop defender who’d be a 70 glove at third. Workman’s footwork and actions are incredible for a player his size. At a long-torso’d 6-foot-4, he has remarkable body control and an impact arm.

Because Workman was such a big-framed switch hitter, and a young-for-the-class draft prospect who wasn’t yet 21 on draft day, there was hope his bat-to-ball skills would improve in pro ball as he became more comfortable with his body and swings, but that hasn’t happened. Workman struggles with both chase and in-zone whiffs, and is likely to be a bottom-of-the-scale contact hitter. He’s likely to end up wearing a big league uniform across parts of a couple seasons because of his defensive ability, but Workman’s strikeouts will probably prevent him from occupying a consistent big league role.

25. Trei Cruz, CF

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2020 from Rice (DET)
Age 25.5 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr S / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/30 45/45 30/35 55/55 50/55 50

In addition to his multi-positional infield duties, Cruz began playing center field in 2023 and he’s taken to it quickly. He now has pretty special defensive versatility, he swings hard enough from both sides of the plate to run into the occasional extra-base hit, and he can handle the bat in bunt situations. These skills will likely make him a back-of-the-roster utilityman, but I worry Cruz’s lack of bat-to-ball ability will make it tough for him to be much more than that. He did hit a career-high 14 homers in 2023, and he’s super patient (he posts walk rates north of 15% every year), but he lacks barrel feel and is the sort of guy who hits .190 or so. If the Tigers suffer a rash of injuries at up-the-middle positions, then Cruz will debut in 2024.

26. Carson Rucker, 3B

Drafted: 4th Round, 2023 from Goodpasture Christian (TN) (DET)
Age 19.4 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/40 40/55 20/50 40/40 30/50 55

Rucker is a projectable infielder who was signed away from a Tennessee commitment for $772,500. He has a strong top hand that generates impressive pull power when his swing is on time, though his lever length may not always allow for that in pro ball. His present power and long-term power projection are Rucker’s carrying tools, while his relatively grooved swing creates some hit tool risk that will prove more concerning if Rucker outgrows short. For now, he’s a raw developmental infielder with a shot to have corner-worthy power.

27. Devin Sweet, SIRP

Undrafted Free Agent, 2018 (SEA)
Age 27.4 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/45 45/45 60/60 45/45 90-93 / 95

Sweet was a 2018 undrafted free agent senior sign by Seattle who, after a 2019 breakout, stagnated at Double-A for most of three seasons before making his big league debut in 2023. He has since hopped around waivers to Oakland, San Francisco, and now Detroit just before list publication. Sweet’s Bugs Bunny changeup is a stinker and embarasses a lot of hitters as it parachutes into the center of the zone. He sets it up by throwing his fastball way above the zone, so that it and his changeup look identical leaving his hand. A mid-80s cutter, which sometimes has two-planed slider movement, rounds out a three-pitch relief mix that should play in an up/down role. Trick-pitch changeups like Sweet’s tend to be sufficient for low-leverage, single-inning impact, and he’ll likely being up and down in 2024 regardless of whose roster he ends up on.

28. RJ Petit, SIRP

Drafted: 14th Round, 2021 from Charleston Southern University (DET)
Age 24.3 Height 6′ 8″ Weight 300 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/50 55/55 45/50 40/40 93-97 / 99

The ironically named Petit has the measurables of an NFL tackle and upper-90s peak arm strength that should facilitate a bullpen role starting in 2025. Because of his size, Petit’s fastball has plane that makes it more hittable, and so he relies heavily on his 83-86 mph slider in virtually all counts. He threw changeups more often during the season than what I saw in the 2023 Arizona Fall League, and it’s a pitch that is more of a grounder-getter than a bat-misser. His feel for locating it is actually pretty good. There’s enough here to project Petit as an optionable up/down guy, but he needs to find a true plus weapon if he’s going to hold down an active roster relief role.

29. Yosber Sanchez, SIRP

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Dominican Republic (TEX)
Age 22.7 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Command Sits/Tops
60/60 45/50 30/35 94-97 / 98

Released by Texas in the fall of 2022, Sanchez showed huge arm strength in Florida for his new club throughout 2023. He routinely sits 94-97 mph, sometimes with close to 20 inches of vertical movement. Built like a catcher, Sanchez and the Tigers are tasked with finding mechanical consistency so he isn’t walking nearly six batters per nine going forward. His mid-80s breaking ball has good depth but not especially sharp bite. If even one thing (better control or a better curveball) develops here, we’re looking at a solid reliever.

30. Andrew Dunford, SP

Drafted: 12th Round, 2023 from Houston Co. HS (TX) (DET)
Age 19.0 Height 6′ 7″ Weight 235 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Command Sits/Tops
50/65 20/55 30/45 20/40 94-95 / 97

Dunford signed for just under $370,000 to eschew a commitment to Mercer. He has an exciting combination of projection (he has room for another 30-plus pounds of mass) and athleticism (big drop-and-drive and hip/shoulder separation), especially for a pitching prospect this size. He only threw four innings after signing, but Dunford’s fastball averaged 95 mph out of the chute. Dunford and the Tigers have a ton of work to do on his command and breaking ball situation (he had an inconsistent curveball in high school and is basically starting from scratch in pro ball), but he was a fun mid-six figure pull on the third day of the draft and is an important low-level prospect to monitor.

31. Nestor Miranda, 1B

Signed: International Signing Period, 2024 from Dominican Republic (DET)
Age 17.9 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/30 60/80 25/60 30/30 20/40 45

Miranda was eligible to sign last year and, at nearly 18 years old, was one of the oldest non-pitching prospects in the 2024 international class. He has absurd power for a teenage hitter, the kind of juice you can feel in your chest when he connects. Currently a third baseman, Miranda is almost certainly ticketed for first base over time, which puts a ton of pressure on his hit tool to facilitate all that power. The Tigers signed Miranda for $1.5 million.

Other Prospects of Note

Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.

Not Quite Enough Defense
Andre Lipcius, UTIL
Eddys Leonard, UTIL
Luke Gold, 2B
Wenceel Pérez, CF/2B
Eliezer Alfonzo, C

Lipcius and Leonard are both on the 40-man roster. Both can kind of play all over the diamond and make an average rate of contact, but neither of them is an especially good defender at any one spot. They’re fine replacement players, but it’s tough to envision either of them holding down a big league role for a good team. It was encouraging to see Gold get to power again in 2023, and his swing is geared for such huge lift that I think he can play a Mike Brosseau-ish 2B/3B combo role if he can continue to improve defensively. Pérez fell off the list when he stopped playing shortstop. He now has some experience in center field, and if it turns out he can actually play there (he is not as good a defender as Trei Cruz, in my opinion), then he’ll stick around on the 40-man as upper-level depth. Little Eliezer Alfonzo has great bat-to-ball ability but doesn’t have the arm to catch.

Young Hitters
Juan Hernandez, 2B
Franyerber Montilla, SS
Javier Osorio, SS
Samuel Gil, 2B

Hernandez and Montilla are both a cut above the rest of this group. Hernandez, 17, is a sweet-swinging, lefty-hitting infielder who hit .292 in the DSL. He could wind up with a 50 hit/50 power combo, which he’ll need every bit of to profile at second base. Montilla is a projectable switch-hitter who had a much better year in his second DSL season. His swing is explosive but still a little out of control, which I think is okay for a switch-hitter his age. He’s got the biggest ceiling of this group, a potential switch-hitting shortstop with clumsy pop, in the Rodolfo Castro mold. Osorio can play shortstop, but his breaking ball recognition is not good and I don’t have a lot of confidence that he’ll hit. He signed for a little over $2 million last year. Gil is a compact middle infielder with bat-to-ball ability but very little physical projection.

Young Pitchers
Luis Vasquez, RHP
Ericksson De Los Santos, LHP
Kelvis Salcedo, RHP

Vasquez is a 6-foot-4, 19-year-old righty who sits 88-90 mph, throws strikes, and has the makings of a plus slider. De Los Santos is a 6-foot-6, 17-year-old lefty sitting 88-89 who needs to add velo and command through development. Salcedo is a squat 17-year-old righty whose fastball averaged 95 mph in the 2023 DSL. He’s relatively projectionless and wild, but he has a huge arm for his age.

Famous Names
Justice Bigbie, OF
Roberto Campos, OF
Izaac Pacheco, 3B
Cristian Santana, SS
Jose De La Cruz, OF

Bigbie had a huge season and his underlying batted ball data is ridiculous. He is deceptively strong and had a hard-hit rate over 50% despite his skinny build. Bigbie looks beatable inside, around his hands; he sprays a ton of doubles-worthy contact just inside the opposite field foul pole. I came away from his Fall League look skeptical that he’ll continue to hit this well, and am pretty resolved that he can’t play center field. This is me leaning heavily on my eyeball look; Bigbie’s underlying Statcast-style data is so strong that I’m sure some teams value him as a prospect solely for that. Campos is still just barely the age of a draftable college outfielder, and he’s so physically gifted with power that he has a shot to be a big leaguer. But I’m worried about his slider chase and lack of power actualization, both of which are concerning for a righty-hitting corner guy. The rest of this group has fun physical tools, but they’re all running contact rates below 70%, well below an acceptable big league threshold. Pacheco, Santana, and De La Cruz were all high-profile amateur players.

More Relievers
Freddy Pacheco, RHP
Blair Calvo, RHP
Marco Jimenez, RHP
Luke Stofel, RHP
Jatnk Diaz, RHP
Nick Starr, RHP

Pacheco was claimed off of waivers from the Cardinals and put on the 60-day IL, where he spent all of 2023. He was re-signed to a minor league deal after the season. Healthy Pacheco sits 96-98 and has a powerful mid-80s curveball, though he’s probably too wild for high-leverage relief. Calvo was a nasty mid-90s/slider relief prospect with Colorado whose velo was down late in 2023. He was acquired for cash. Jimenez was one of the system’s harder-throwing guys before he got hurt in the middle of 2023. If he comes back sitting his usual 94-97, then he has a bullpen shot. Stofel was a 2023 undrafted free agent from Wright State who was sitting 92-96 with heavy sink late in the year. Diaz signed for a quarter million out of Hazelton High School in PA (Joe Maddon’s hometown) and sat 93-96 during his three FCL innings. His sweeper has plus raw spin, but he needs to polish his control pretty badly. Starr was a minor league Rule 5 pick from Texas who sits 94-95 and has a bevy of average breaking balls (slider, curveball, cutter).

System Overview

This isn’t a fantastic system — there are enough high-end guys that I’d consider it about average — but it’s poised to give Detroit’s big league club almost exactly what it needs in 2024, which could be how the Tigers win the division. They’ve add a few established vets like Kenta Maeda and Jack Flaherty to their rotation, and are also getting Casey Mize back from injury. Especially if Jackson Jobe is promoted aggressively, they have the high-end pitching and the depth to tussle with any of the AL Central teams. The number of 2B/3B prospects who are nearly ready for prime time should allow the Tigers to fill their holes at those positions from within. Parker Meadows provides a lefty-hitting partner to the deep righty-hitting outfield contingent already in place.

Do they have the ammunition to make a huge trade in the middle of the summer? That isn’t as clear. Because so many of their better prospects are close to the big leagues, landing a big fish at the deadline might also cost the Tigers pieces of their major league roster. If Scott Harris, like a lot of GMs and POBOs, is focused on building a sustainable operation, the Tigers might not be as willing to up the prospect ante as teams with deeper farm systems.

Some organizational trends and core competencies are evident throughout Detroit’s system. This club is good at developing pitchers. In addition to some of the other recent prospects who’ve taken leaps here (Tarik Skubal chief among them), Jobe’s on-the-fly breaking ball changes were impressive, as were Troy Melton’s. The changes made to Ty Madden’s mechanics were almost entirely proactive, after he had enjoyed tremendous success in college with a different delivery. Some teams have an “if it ain’t broke” approach to dev, whereas the Tigers seem confident that they know what’s best for a pitcher regardless of his track record.

There are also a lot of hitters in this system who struggle to pull the ball in the air. (Perhaps the kinder way to say it is that they have a proclivity for opposite field contact.) I’m not sure why this is the case. The acquisitions of most analytically oriented teams are trending hard in the other direction; they’re smitten with pull-oriented goons. In Detroit’s case, the guys with oppo contact tend to be vulnerable to whiffs on the inner third of the zone.

The other tendency here is that the Tigers have been apt to spend big international bonus money on big, strong guys with huge present power but usually way less projection than the average international amateur. Jose De La Cruz, Roberto Campos, and most recently Nestor Miranda are on-list examples. I don’t know that we’ve yet seen Harris’ true vision for this branch of the org. He was hired late in 2022 and, because international bonus pools tend to be committed a few years in advance, he’s probably inherited his first couple of classes of players from that market.





Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.

61 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
wideman1926
2 years ago

Having a core competency is a step forward from the absence of one, baby steps.

roobMember since 2026
2 years ago
Reply to  wideman1926

It’s an intriguing infield situation for them. Gonna have some great bats with Torkelson, Jung and Keith but woof! The defense!

They can have a good OF defense, for sure. And, I like the future of their pitching. Overall, they should be competitive in their division for a while.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
2 years ago

This system seems to have a lot of position players who who can probably hit but are only technically 2nd or 3rd basemen (Keith, Jung, Anderson, Malloy). I don’t see how they’re going to get away with filling up both 2nd and 3rd base with Keith and Jung. You can get away with one if you have a shortstop with great range but asking a shortstop to cover extra ground on both sides isn’t as easy.

By all accounts Jung is the guy more likely to be able to fake it at 2nd or 3rd base and Keith is probably a first baseman or a DH. I suppose they will try to put them all out there at some point because they probably want to see what Keith, Jung, Torkelson, and Carpenter can do at the plate and only two of them can play 1B/DH. Maybe if Canha gets hurt they shift Carpenter to the outfield…that seems like the logical situation for 2025 too.

They also seem like there are a fair number of tooled-up guys with questions about the hit tool (Graham, Pacheco, Workman), although I suppose a lot of organizations have this archetype.

I like the idea of Jobe a lot more than the reality of a guy who has battled through a crazy number of injuries and has barely pitched in pro ball, but I think he’s probably comparable to where Tiedemann was last offseason and that’s a 55. For 2024 his health worries me, I wouldn’t want to rely on him for a ton of innings even if he can punch guys out in the majors. I think Madden’s track record is getting lost here–he is doing a great job of striking guys out, his walk rate is a little high but not bad, and he sits 94. I think he’s up by mid-season and holding his own.

MikeSMember since 2020
2 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

They are pretty used to that sort of problem. The last time the Tigers made the playoffs (2014) they routinely played Cabrera, Castellanos, and JD Martinez in the field. They even gave Victor Martinez 33 starts at first base although he was the primary DH that year. Their regular CF, Torii Hunter, was coasting on defensive reputation by then too.

Cool Lester SmoothMember since 2020
2 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

What do you mean “shift Carpenter into the OF,” haha?

He played OF throughout the minors, and acquitted himself quite well there last season.

He’s almost certainly penciled in as the strong side of a cOF platoon.

Canha’s great depth (their only righty OF last year was Matt Vierling!)…but I doubt they’ll be playing him against righties at the expense of their cohort of lefty OFs who are better on both sides of the ball.

PC1970Member since 2024
2 years ago

Yeah, I think they’ll end up having Greene & Meadows in the OF most days.

vs LHP Canha will be out there
vs RHP Carpenter will be out there.

Baddoo will be 5th OF most likely.

Canha & Carpenter will also split DH duties along with someone else.

Cool Lester SmoothMember since 2020
2 years ago
Reply to  PC1970

Yeah, I expect Canha to be the regular DH/4th OF and start against against Lefties.

Which is a HUGE upgrade from Miguel Cabrera at DH, Vierling as the RHH OF and Badoo as the 4th OF.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
2 years ago

According to the Depth Chart they have Carpenter as the primary DH. I would tend to agree with you that is a suboptimal arrangement, since he was effectively an average corner outfielder last year. I would probably just use Canha as a backup corner outfielder until someone gets hurt.

Cool Lester SmoothMember since 2020
2 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Good looks – definitely expect Canha to get his fair share of PA…but that’s an odd DC projection, haha.

PC1970Member since 2024
2 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

I do think the archetype is changing. We saw it in last year’s draft, which was Harris first. All of those defensively challenged big power, no hit guys were Avila picks (See Eric’s note about Miranda likely being an Avila guy, too).

Pretty clear that Harris loves him some hit/plate discipline tool. Clark, Mcgonigle, Anderson. Traded for Leonard & Lee. traded for Malloy. Control the zone, either though discipline or hits.

The other thing they did was for the first time in forever, they got a few guys to really improve. Justice Bigbie (who is criminally underrated here) was only the most obvious one of a # of guys.

They also revamped the pitching program..which is where you see the leaps that Jobe, Melton, Madden took. Biggest difference was they tailored it to the specific pitcher’s strengths (Under Avila it was more of “This is our way” approach)

Cool Lester SmoothMember since 2020
2 years ago
Reply to  PC1970

Don’t forget Kerry Carpenter – kid’s looking like Diet Ethier

sadtromboneMember since 2020
2 years ago
Reply to  PC1970

Yeah, it does seem like that’s changing. I was skeptical of the decision to take Clark over Langford, and since Langford is on every person’s rookie of the year shortlist it doesn’t look good now later. But it is true that if you wanted a potentially positionless masher that Langford would have been the call.

Also, IIRC Jung wasn’t a Top 10 pick and Keith wasn’t even a first rounder. It was totally reasonable to grab them there. Those guys are development success stories…it’s just weird that they are the only ones.

PC1970Member since 2024
2 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Jung was pick 1-12, IIRC? Not top 10, but, pretty high..& he also really struggled in 2022 & early last year. I think he’s one of the guys that the new regime helped. (I.E., under the old regime, I question if he would have taken the steps he did last year).

Keith was a great find & great success story. Kerry Carpenter broke out under the last regime, too.

But, overall they took too many 6’4″ 220 lb monsters who had huge power, but, poor hit tool, huge BB/K issues & could only play 1B/corner OF. It’s like they thought they were drafting linebackers or tight ends, not baseball players.

LMOTFOTEMember since 2017
2 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

I know it has been said but Carpenter can play a passable RF. This is the organization that regularly used late career Tory Hunter, then JD Martinez, then Nick Castellanos to cover RF (I can’t remember who followed Nick but he was probably bad too). Carpenter isn’t that level of bad. If Keith or Jung are hitting well but not playable in the field, there’s still room to get their bats in the line-up. Torkelson ain’t so great with the glove either, maybe he’s the one to DH eventually. By 2025-26 (assuming these guys bats play) it could be Jung at 3B, Keith at 1B, Torkelson at DH, and Detroit finds an average-ish keystone combo via trade or FA. It’s more likely that the next good Tiger team’s strength is pitching anyway.

ScottThormanMember since 2020
2 years ago
Reply to  LMOTFOTE

Tory Hunter? Who’s next, Whig Edmonds?

willl
2 years ago

The Tigers passing on Langford to draft Clark underslot and then sign Paul Wilson overslot is going to go down as one of those “what were they thinking?” moments, isn’t it?

It’s especially strange, because the Tigers seem to think their competitive window has opened, so why invest so heavily in Clark and Wilson, who are still at least 3 years away?

Eddie BMember since 2020
2 years ago
Reply to  willl

McGonigle was also signed with the Clark savings, as well as Rucker, Dunford, and another Day 3 pick (Brady Cerkownyk, who likely wasn’t listed because he went down with a knee injury right after being drafted and didn’t get seen)

willl
2 years ago
Reply to  Eddie B

Clark signed for $640k underslot, Wilson signed for $755k overslot, meaning all the savings for Clark (and more) were exhausted just with Wilson’s bonus. All the other draft picks offset each other (for example, McGonigle’s overslot bonus was entirely offset by savings on their 2nd round pick, Anderson).

David HinkleMember since 2018
2 years ago
Reply to  willl

Don’t forget about the 5% savings on each.

VinnieDaGooch
2 years ago
Reply to  willl

People were saying the same thing about them picking Jobe instead of Mayer and now they look pretty even. Still very possible Clark ends up the better player and drafting for a competitive window doesn’t seem like a smart strategy.

Last edited 2 years ago by VinnieDaGooch
CromulentMember since 2017
2 years ago
Reply to  VinnieDaGooch

Jobe and Mayer are even?!? Uhhhh….

sadtromboneMember since 2020
2 years ago
Reply to  Cromulent

I’m pretty sure that Mayer is going to an FV55 just like Jobe is here. And I think that’s probably right. There’s a ton of risk for Jobe but the ceiling is sky-high, and Mayer has had a bunch of question marks (hit tool, injuries, position) that have created some doubt for him.

mikejuntMember
2 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Of course, its been understood for quite a while that hitters > pitchers at equal FV, though I wonder if the ridiculous dearth in available high quality pitching will ever change that. Probably not, because the reason that problem exists in the first place is that they’re constantly hurt and unavailable.

Brock244
2 years ago
Reply to  mikejunt

I don’t think it will ever change because just playing the numbers, positional player prospects are just safer and higher probability. If you hit on a Gunnar Henderson, you are golden for a long time. Even you hit on a pitcher, there’s always that TJ risk.

Last edited 2 years ago by Brock244
sadtromboneMember since 2020
2 years ago
Reply to  mikejunt

I think it has switched already. You have teams that are valuing pitching prospects over hitting prospects in terms of which players are untouchable / sought after by other teams. That’s because they think they can find hitting prospects everywhere but everyone have an organization-wide dearth of pitching. Because of the injuries.

It’s weird, right? Hitting prospects produce more WAR than pitchers because of injuries. But every team is desperate for pitching prospects. So FG is knocking down the grade of every pitching prospect by either 5 or a +, while teams either aren’t or are doing the opposite because they realize you still need pitching.

mikejuntMember
2 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

I think this is only true up to a point. Teams may value a 45 arm over a 45 bat, or even a 50, but no team would trade Henderson for an equivalently graded pitcher unless they were omega-sure that they were some kind of exception in terms of injury risk.

Of course, because the risk is so high, pitchers *simply don’t get 60+ grades anymore*, and certainly not 65s and 70s. The mythical equivalent pitcher to Gunnar doesn’t exist.

Brock244
2 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Don’t position player prospects have more value at the same FV?

And I believe there’s a few outlets who have Mayer at a higher FV (BA/pipeline?)

Last edited 2 years ago by Brock244
sadtromboneMember since 2020
2 years ago
Reply to  Brock244

They produce less WAR at the same FV. But Eric already knocks down pitching prospects in FV a little bit because of this, so I think he’s double-penalizing them by a little bit.

Brock244
2 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Even so, if you have 2 equally valuable prospects (one a pitcher, one a hitter), you kind of have to take the hitter, no?

Less risk of injury/variance

I guess the argument agaisnt this is top pitchers are harder to find, but is this actually true? Isn’t 4 WAR = 4 WAR regardless of position?

mikejuntMember
2 years ago
Reply to  Brock244

I think Sad’s argument, which I agree with for players on the lower end of the spectrum (say FV 35+ to 45+ or maybe 50) is that this is inverted by demand: Teams need an essentially infinite number of FV40-45 pitching, because that’s ‘good bullpen arm’ and everyone uses so many pitchers each year because of injury. So while each individual pitcher is likely to give you less than the equivalent FV40-45 position player, you need more than twice as many of them and the competition drives up the prices.

On the high end, because you get more actual value and star-level talent is still at a premium for everyone, position players remain more valuable (Soto will get more money than Yoshinobu Yamamoto did, for instance). But no pitching *prospect* has that outlook – someone will be the next Gerrit Cole, but no one will *project* as the next Gerrit Cole.

But while the ‘value per prospect’ on bench/platoon/2nd division type position players is better than the equivalent pitchers, it doesn’t matter because a competitive team only wants like 2 or 3 of those guys (with most of their positions being manned by superior talent), whereas that same team wants to have like 15 or 16 pitchers at that level, if not more. So the price is not related to $/war efficiency, its related to scarcity. Individually, they’re not that much better than the freely available improvements, but they *are* better and you need *a lot of them* to not have to use bad pitching when pitchers inevitably get hurt.

PC1970Member since 2024
2 years ago
Reply to  mikejunt

Perfect explanation.

The other thing I’ll add is by having a bunch of those FV 35-45 pitchers, it is more likely that a couple of them will take a step- either add velocity or tweak a delivery or add a pitch, etc. that maybe allows them to play above FV 35-40 level pitcher…even if it’s only for a year until the league catches up to them or they get hurt, those are innings that are “in the bank” so to speak.

It’s kind of a bottom of the bullpen roster churn of a handful of relievers you’re always trying to improve/work with. As a fan, it’s annoying because they’re largely anonymous, but, as a team it is needed to cover innings.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
2 years ago
Reply to  mikejunt

This is really close to what I meant, and if it isn’t I agree with it anyway. But I’m having trouble putting it into words right now.

I think one way to summarize all of this is that it WAR isn’t totally interchangeable across pitching and position players. Your position players get hurt and you’ve typically got a functional utility guy behind them. Your pitchers get hurt and now you’re praying that the ghost of Noah Syndergaard or Corey Kluber can give you credible innings, and you’re normally wrong. The scarcity of pitching creates all sorts of weird downstream effects, and you can’t completely compensate by having a ton of position players.

mikejuntMember
2 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Its just that depth means different things. With position players, having depth means having a 2-3 dudes who, if given a full runway, could probably be 1.5-2.5 win players available in some capacity to fill in because of injury. With 9 starters, that means ‘good depth’ accounts for about 25% of your total position player group.

With pitching, your whole staff is likely to be upwards of 20 guys over the course of a year – almost every team uses that many guys, and some approach 30. Everything but your top 3 or so starters and maybe your best bullpen piece or two will come out of this category, so you’re looking at like 15-16 dudes ideally – around 80% of the group.

There’s simply not enough pitchers to fill that for every team that wants to be competitive (or dreams of being competitive, or dreams of it in a few years if these prospects work out), so they cost more than they ‘should’ in a strict $/war analysis, because the demand is so high.

And plenty of these re-tread injury dudes *do* work out, whether for half a season or a whole one – Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney, etc are the counterexamples. Teams not only think they can make this happen because it does happen, they really have no choice because the league just needs like 30-40% more pitchers than it has.

It is the main argument against expansion – the position player group is sufficient to support expansion. The pitchers aren’t. There are not enough of them and they get hurt too often. There’s already a shortage.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
2 years ago
Reply to  VinnieDaGooch

I think you’re right, it is too soon to say. But Langford already looks like a strong RoY candidate, so this is a slightly different situation than Mayer and Jobe, where there are a lot of question marks about both. In this case, there’s a lot of questions about Clark because he’s young and Langford is already poised to be good. You could make the argument that all three of the teams who could have grabbed Langford and didn’t are regretting it.

crackbaldoMember since 2024
2 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

If the top of the first were redrafted, I’m not sure it doesn’t go the same 1-4. I think the Bucs still take Skenes and the Nats still take Ctrews. Would Detroit still take Clark? I think they do.

gettwobrute79Member since 2026
2 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

I don’t think Washington and Pittsburgh regret it. For Pittsburgh, this is pretty much the best way for them to find a possible ace type. And while Langford absolutely looks like a masher, the kindest explanation I’ve heard on his defense is “poor.” Considering he’s incredibly athletic and young, that’s at least a little alarming, isn’t it?

I can see the argument for all three college guys in those top three spots. Too soon to have any kind of buyers remorse for Washington and Pittsburgh. Clark sounded like Mickey Moniak to me, and well behind the other three and Jenkins.

markakis21
2 years ago

I’m not going to lie, I’m completely flabbergasted that the Jobe pick worked out. Seemed like the obvious reach of the draft.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
2 years ago
Reply to  markakis21

Especially after how it started. He looked like it was going to be classic case of a prep pitcher wrecked by injuries, with his career never getting off the ground. Although that is still possible.

LMOTFOTEMember since 2017
2 years ago
Reply to  markakis21

Well, can’t say it worked out yet, but it looks much better today than 18 months ago.

PC1970Member since 2024
2 years ago
Reply to  LMOTFOTE

Yeah, in prospects the only thing that REALLY matters is how much they provide for the MLB team (or with Dave Dombrowski run teams, what you can get for them in a trade).

With that in mind, it’s looking good..but, too early to congratulating themselves yet.

Cool Lester SmoothMember since 2020
2 years ago

Gonna be real…if Meadows’ defensive numbers are real, he’s a starter in the Bader/Grisham mold.

No real platoon issues in the minors, either.

Eddie BMember since 2020
2 years ago

FYI, Zabala is off to the Nippon Ham Fighters. It hasn’t shown up in the transaction logs yet, but was widely reported about a month ago.

Meg RowleyFanGraphs Staff
2 years ago
Reply to  Eddie B

That he is – thank you!

VinnieDaGooch
2 years ago

Not even a 35+ for Bigbie is crazy imo. I think Meadows and Keider Montero are underrated here as well. I am quite low on Jung though. I don’t think he will make either enough contact or hit enough homers to profile as a legit bat, especially if they are going to force him to 3B where he is stretched defensively.

skiigy
2 years ago
Reply to  VinnieDaGooch

I think they just have no idea what to make of Bigbie. I mean in what world does a 23 year old who hit .258/.339/.358 in A ball suddenly scorch AA with .362/.421/.564 the next year? His ceiling is simultaneously both impossibly high and unfathomably low.

Antonio BananasMember since 2026
2 years ago

Is the last several years of Tigers development a case study in why teams focus on hitting prospects instead of pitching? At one point there was Mize, Manning, Skubal, and Jobe all at like 55 FV and above with Mize and Manning at 60. It looks like they won’t get much out of that group.

zstam
2 years ago

This seems like a harsh take. Skubal basically looks like he’s going to be an ace. Mize had a decent year before his injury. Manning has put together 2 solid years. And then Jobe is one of the top prospects in the game. Expecting all 4 to becoming aces would’ve been unreasonable so this seems like a strong output for that group so far, injuries aside.

CC AFCMember since 2016
2 years ago
Reply to  zstam

Manning’s been pretty bad unless you give him full credit for his low babips (which I don’t and absolutely don’t expect to continue).

And a big part of the point I think is being made here includes the injuries. Pitching prospects get injured and that’s a big factor in what teams get out of them. It’s not a failing on the part of the players, but it is a reason not to put too much of your resources into them.

Cool Lester SmoothMember since 2020
2 years ago
Reply to  CC AFC

Manning looks like a solid 4th starter?

CC AFCMember since 2016
2 years ago

What looks good about him? He struck out 15.8%(!) of hitters last year. Major league average for starters was 22.1%. That’s backed up by below average contact rates (that is, hitters made more contact against him than average). Even accounting for the fact that he walked fewer than average, his K-BB% was 9.2% when average for starters was 14.2%. That’s WAY below average. FIP- was 13% worse than league average. Basically the only thing he did well last year was that guys had a .214 babip against him. If you don’t think he owns that skill going forward, then he’s a bad starter. Maybe that’s fine because almost every team’s fifth starter sucks. But there’s no way I’d feel like that’s a win for player development.

Last edited 2 years ago by CC AFC
Cool Lester SmoothMember since 2020
2 years ago
Reply to  CC AFC

A) 2023 wasn’t his first season and he was quite good last year.

B) There’s a reason fWAR incorporates popups and HRs, not just K% and BB%.

Take a look at Manning’s IFFB% and HR/FB% relative to the league average over the last two years…and maybe consider what that says about the quality of contact he’s induced.

C) I. Said. He. Looks. Like. A. #4, haha.

He’s put up 1.7 fWAR in his last 141 innings, which is absolutely 4th starter production, on a rate basis.

PC1970Member since 2024
2 years ago
Reply to  CC AFC

The injuries are the issue. Not only does it many times affect performance, but, it also delays their arrival.

Manning was drafted 1-9 in 2016, Mize was 1-1 as a college pitcher in 2018. 6-8 years later neither are established & Detroit still doesn’t really know what they have in either one.

As a GM, it’s tough to wait that long & quite frankly, if you have too many guys get delayed (like Detroit has had) & you may be out of a job before they make MLB.

Antonio BananasMember since 2026
2 years ago
Reply to  CC AFC

Yes, that’s my point. Thank you for helping me out.

gettwobrute79Member since 2026
2 years ago
Reply to  CC AFC

It’s about as old as Aesop’s Fables, but Branch Rickey’s adage about hotshot pitching prospects (if you have three, one will be a star, one will be perpetually injured, and one will be fairly disappointing) rings pretty true here.

PC1970Member since 2024
2 years ago

Justice Bigbie as not even ranked is going to look really bad when he replaces Mark Canha as the right handed OF/DH in 2025.

John WickMember since 2018
2 years ago
Reply to  PC1970

Agree that it is weird he didn’t get a 35 or 35+ given the metrics, with the writeup being about the eye test not backing those metrics up and him needing to hit given his defensive capabilities.

Mantle7Member since 2020
2 years ago
Reply to  PC1970

I kept looking through list thinking I missed him

Uncle SpikeMember since 2020
2 years ago

Typically when I look down at the “Other Prospects of Note” section, there isn’t usually anyone of interest, maybe one guy that I feel got overlooked. However, I feel there are several misses here. Justice Bigbie, Eddys Leonard and Wenceel Perez are all guys that I feel have a good chance to contribute at the major league level and in each case it could be as soon as 2024. I also think JHM is being undervalued here. He’s already produced at a high level for 640+ ABs at AAA. If he continues to hit, I can’t see them keeping him down all year.

votto eroticaMember since 2026
2 years ago

I think this underrates Jobe by half a grade and perhaps a full grade based mostly on the future command grading out better than the 50 projected here. The control is already above average, and a big part of his allure as a prep was his feel.

I always characterized his high school breaking ball as a slurve — today a sweeper — so I don’t see quite the evolution Eric does?

I don’t usually play this game, but I cautioned those writing Jobe off after his initial struggles. He was one of the most unique prep pitchers I’d seen — not quite Jose Fernandez unique, but not miles away either — and it felt like a matter of when he’d actualize, not if. I completely agree that he could be ready by mid-season.

Eric recently pumped the brakes on another pitcher who wowed me as much as Jobe and who could have a similar breakout this season, Dylan Lesko (I’m just more aggressive and Eric’s take is very fair). Casan Evans and Levi Sterling (both ‘24s) and Seth Hernandez (‘25) are the next wave of prep arms who stand out to me as the caliber of Jobe and Lesko.

kriam
2 years ago

Your assessment of Bigbie makes no sense. He doesn’t make your top 31 list based on that great predictor of talent, the AFL? Yet a 17 yr old playing in DR (A ball at best) showed a little capability, 4th round HS player and others who have never faced a real pitcher makes it? This is same flawed analysis that writers made ( and still are making) with Carpenter both on offense and defense. Bigbie is already a better hitter than Badoo or Meadows. Stick to writing. Any future in scouting is pretty cloudy.

Dan B
2 years ago

I believe it’s spelled Jackson G.O.B.