Detroit Tigers Top 31 Prospects

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Detroit Tigers. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the fourth year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.
A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.
All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here.
| Rk | Name | Age | Highest Level | Position | ETA | FV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jackson Jobe | 21.5 | AA | SP | 2025 | 55 |
| 2 | Max Clark | 18.6 | A | CF | 2027 | 50 |
| 3 | Colt Keith | 22.4 | AAA | 2B | 2024 | 50 |
| 4 | Jace Jung | 23.3 | AA | 3B | 2024 | 50 |
| 5 | Ty Madden | 23.9 | AA | SP | 2024 | 45 |
| 6 | Parker Meadows | 24.2 | MLB | CF | 2024 | 45 |
| 7 | Kevin McGonigle | 19.4 | A | SS | 2026 | 45 |
| 8 | Troy Melton | 23.1 | A+ | SP | 2026 | 45 |
| 9 | Wilmer Flores | 22.9 | AA | MIRP | 2024 | 40+ |
| 10 | Dillon Dingler | 25.3 | AAA | C | 2024 | 40+ |
| 11 | Justyn-Henry Malloy | 23.9 | AAA | 3B | 2025 | 40+ |
| 12 | Josue Briceno | 19.3 | A | C | 2028 | 40+ |
| 13 | Tyler Mattison | 24.4 | AA | SIRP | 2025 | 40+ |
| 14 | Peyton Graham | 23.0 | A | SS | 2027 | 40+ |
| 15 | Paul Wilson | 18.6 | R | SP | 2028 | 40 |
| 16 | Sawyer Gipson-Long | 26.1 | MLB | MIRP | 2024 | 40 |
| 17 | Brant Hurter | 25.4 | AA | MIRP | 2025 | 40 |
| 18 | Danny Serretti | 23.7 | AA | SS | 2026 | 40 |
| 19 | Hao-Yu Lee | 21.0 | A+ | 2B | 2025 | 40 |
| 20 | Max Anderson | 21.4 | A | 2B | 2026 | 40 |
| 21 | Enrique Jimenez | 18.2 | R | C | 2029 | 35+ |
| 22 | Keider Montero | 23.5 | AAA | SP | 2024 | 35+ |
| 23 | Dylan Smith | 23.6 | AA | SP | 2025 | 35+ |
| 24 | Gage Workman | 24.2 | AA | SS | 2025 | 35+ |
| 25 | Trei Cruz | 25.5 | AA | CF | 2024 | 35+ |
| 26 | Carson Rucker | 19.4 | R | 3B | 2029 | 35+ |
| 27 | Devin Sweet | 27.4 | MLB | SIRP | 2024 | 35+ |
| 28 | RJ Petit | 24.3 | AA | SIRP | 2025 | 35+ |
| 29 | Yosber Sanchez | 22.7 | A | SIRP | 2026 | 35+ |
| 30 | Andrew Dunford | 19.0 | R | SP | 2029 | 35+ |
| 31 | Nestor Miranda | 17.9 | R | 1B | 2030 | 35+ |
Other Prospects of Note
Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.
Not Quite Enough Defense
Andre Lipcius, UTIL
Eddys Leonard, UTIL
Luke Gold, 2B
Wenceel Pérez, CF/2B
Eliezer Alfonzo, C
Lipcius and Leonard are both on the 40-man roster. Both can kind of play all over the diamond and make an average rate of contact, but neither of them is an especially good defender at any one spot. They’re fine replacement players, but it’s tough to envision either of them holding down a big league role for a good team. It was encouraging to see Gold get to power again in 2023, and his swing is geared for such huge lift that I think he can play a Mike Brosseau-ish 2B/3B combo role if he can continue to improve defensively. Pérez fell off the list when he stopped playing shortstop. He now has some experience in center field, and if it turns out he can actually play there (he is not as good a defender as Trei Cruz, in my opinion), then he’ll stick around on the 40-man as upper-level depth. Little Eliezer Alfonzo has great bat-to-ball ability but doesn’t have the arm to catch.
Young Hitters
Juan Hernandez, 2B
Franyerber Montilla, SS
Javier Osorio, SS
Samuel Gil, 2B
Hernandez and Montilla are both a cut above the rest of this group. Hernandez, 17, is a sweet-swinging, lefty-hitting infielder who hit .292 in the DSL. He could wind up with a 50 hit/50 power combo, which he’ll need every bit of to profile at second base. Montilla is a projectable switch-hitter who had a much better year in his second DSL season. His swing is explosive but still a little out of control, which I think is okay for a switch-hitter his age. He’s got the biggest ceiling of this group, a potential switch-hitting shortstop with clumsy pop, in the Rodolfo Castro mold. Osorio can play shortstop, but his breaking ball recognition is not good and I don’t have a lot of confidence that he’ll hit. He signed for a little over $2 million last year. Gil is a compact middle infielder with bat-to-ball ability but very little physical projection.
Young Pitchers
Luis Vasquez, RHP
Ericksson De Los Santos, LHP
Kelvis Salcedo, RHP
Vasquez is a 6-foot-4, 19-year-old righty who sits 88-90 mph, throws strikes, and has the makings of a plus slider. De Los Santos is a 6-foot-6, 17-year-old lefty sitting 88-89 who needs to add velo and command through development. Salcedo is a squat 17-year-old righty whose fastball averaged 95 mph in the 2023 DSL. He’s relatively projectionless and wild, but he has a huge arm for his age.
Famous Names
Justice Bigbie, OF
Roberto Campos, OF
Izaac Pacheco, 3B
Cristian Santana, SS
Jose De La Cruz, OF
Bigbie had a huge season and his underlying batted ball data is ridiculous. He is deceptively strong and had a hard-hit rate over 50% despite his skinny build. Bigbie looks beatable inside, around his hands; he sprays a ton of doubles-worthy contact just inside the opposite field foul pole. I came away from his Fall League look skeptical that he’ll continue to hit this well, and am pretty resolved that he can’t play center field. This is me leaning heavily on my eyeball look; Bigbie’s underlying Statcast-style data is so strong that I’m sure some teams value him as a prospect solely for that. Campos is still just barely the age of a draftable college outfielder, and he’s so physically gifted with power that he has a shot to be a big leaguer. But I’m worried about his slider chase and lack of power actualization, both of which are concerning for a righty-hitting corner guy. The rest of this group has fun physical tools, but they’re all running contact rates below 70%, well below an acceptable big league threshold. Pacheco, Santana, and De La Cruz were all high-profile amateur players.
More Relievers
Freddy Pacheco, RHP
Blair Calvo, RHP
Marco Jimenez, RHP
Luke Stofel, RHP
Jatnk Diaz, RHP
Nick Starr, RHP
Pacheco was claimed off of waivers from the Cardinals and put on the 60-day IL, where he spent all of 2023. He was re-signed to a minor league deal after the season. Healthy Pacheco sits 96-98 and has a powerful mid-80s curveball, though he’s probably too wild for high-leverage relief. Calvo was a nasty mid-90s/slider relief prospect with Colorado whose velo was down late in 2023. He was acquired for cash. Jimenez was one of the system’s harder-throwing guys before he got hurt in the middle of 2023. If he comes back sitting his usual 94-97, then he has a bullpen shot. Stofel was a 2023 undrafted free agent from Wright State who was sitting 92-96 with heavy sink late in the year. Diaz signed for a quarter million out of Hazelton High School in PA (Joe Maddon’s hometown) and sat 93-96 during his three FCL innings. His sweeper has plus raw spin, but he needs to polish his control pretty badly. Starr was a minor league Rule 5 pick from Texas who sits 94-95 and has a bevy of average breaking balls (slider, curveball, cutter).
System Overview
This isn’t a fantastic system — there are enough high-end guys that I’d consider it about average — but it’s poised to give Detroit’s big league club almost exactly what it needs in 2024, which could be how the Tigers win the division. They’ve add a few established vets like Kenta Maeda and Jack Flaherty to their rotation, and are also getting Casey Mize back from injury. Especially if Jackson Jobe is promoted aggressively, they have the high-end pitching and the depth to tussle with any of the AL Central teams. The number of 2B/3B prospects who are nearly ready for prime time should allow the Tigers to fill their holes at those positions from within. Parker Meadows provides a lefty-hitting partner to the deep righty-hitting outfield contingent already in place.
Do they have the ammunition to make a huge trade in the middle of the summer? That isn’t as clear. Because so many of their better prospects are close to the big leagues, landing a big fish at the deadline might also cost the Tigers pieces of their major league roster. If Scott Harris, like a lot of GMs and POBOs, is focused on building a sustainable operation, the Tigers might not be as willing to up the prospect ante as teams with deeper farm systems.
Some organizational trends and core competencies are evident throughout Detroit’s system. This club is good at developing pitchers. In addition to some of the other recent prospects who’ve taken leaps here (Tarik Skubal chief among them), Jobe’s on-the-fly breaking ball changes were impressive, as were Troy Melton’s. The changes made to Ty Madden’s mechanics were almost entirely proactive, after he had enjoyed tremendous success in college with a different delivery. Some teams have an “if it ain’t broke” approach to dev, whereas the Tigers seem confident that they know what’s best for a pitcher regardless of his track record.
There are also a lot of hitters in this system who struggle to pull the ball in the air. (Perhaps the kinder way to say it is that they have a proclivity for opposite field contact.) I’m not sure why this is the case. The acquisitions of most analytically oriented teams are trending hard in the other direction; they’re smitten with pull-oriented goons. In Detroit’s case, the guys with oppo contact tend to be vulnerable to whiffs on the inner third of the zone.
The other tendency here is that the Tigers have been apt to spend big international bonus money on big, strong guys with huge present power but usually way less projection than the average international amateur. Jose De La Cruz, Roberto Campos, and most recently Nestor Miranda are on-list examples. I don’t know that we’ve yet seen Harris’ true vision for this branch of the org. He was hired late in 2022 and, because international bonus pools tend to be committed a few years in advance, he’s probably inherited his first couple of classes of players from that market.
Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.
Having a core competency is a step forward from the absence of one, baby steps.
It’s an intriguing infield situation for them. Gonna have some great bats with Torkelson, Jung and Keith but woof! The defense!
They can have a good OF defense, for sure. And, I like the future of their pitching. Overall, they should be competitive in their division for a while.
This system seems to have a lot of position players who who can probably hit but are only technically 2nd or 3rd basemen (Keith, Jung, Anderson, Malloy). I don’t see how they’re going to get away with filling up both 2nd and 3rd base with Keith and Jung. You can get away with one if you have a shortstop with great range but asking a shortstop to cover extra ground on both sides isn’t as easy.
By all accounts Jung is the guy more likely to be able to fake it at 2nd or 3rd base and Keith is probably a first baseman or a DH. I suppose they will try to put them all out there at some point because they probably want to see what Keith, Jung, Torkelson, and Carpenter can do at the plate and only two of them can play 1B/DH. Maybe if Canha gets hurt they shift Carpenter to the outfield…that seems like the logical situation for 2025 too.
They also seem like there are a fair number of tooled-up guys with questions about the hit tool (Graham, Pacheco, Workman), although I suppose a lot of organizations have this archetype.
I like the idea of Jobe a lot more than the reality of a guy who has battled through a crazy number of injuries and has barely pitched in pro ball, but I think he’s probably comparable to where Tiedemann was last offseason and that’s a 55. For 2024 his health worries me, I wouldn’t want to rely on him for a ton of innings even if he can punch guys out in the majors. I think Madden’s track record is getting lost here–he is doing a great job of striking guys out, his walk rate is a little high but not bad, and he sits 94. I think he’s up by mid-season and holding his own.
They are pretty used to that sort of problem. The last time the Tigers made the playoffs (2014) they routinely played Cabrera, Castellanos, and JD Martinez in the field. They even gave Victor Martinez 33 starts at first base although he was the primary DH that year. Their regular CF, Torii Hunter, was coasting on defensive reputation by then too.
What do you mean “shift Carpenter into the OF,” haha?
He played OF throughout the minors, and acquitted himself quite well there last season.
He’s almost certainly penciled in as the strong side of a cOF platoon.
Canha’s great depth (their only righty OF last year was Matt Vierling!)…but I doubt they’ll be playing him against righties at the expense of their cohort of lefty OFs who are better on both sides of the ball.
Yeah, I think they’ll end up having Greene & Meadows in the OF most days.
vs LHP Canha will be out there
vs RHP Carpenter will be out there.
Baddoo will be 5th OF most likely.
Canha & Carpenter will also split DH duties along with someone else.
Yeah, I expect Canha to be the regular DH/4th OF and start against against Lefties.
Which is a HUGE upgrade from Miguel Cabrera at DH, Vierling as the RHH OF and Badoo as the 4th OF.
According to the Depth Chart they have Carpenter as the primary DH. I would tend to agree with you that is a suboptimal arrangement, since he was effectively an average corner outfielder last year. I would probably just use Canha as a backup corner outfielder until someone gets hurt.
Good looks – definitely expect Canha to get his fair share of PA…but that’s an odd DC projection, haha.
I do think the archetype is changing. We saw it in last year’s draft, which was Harris first. All of those defensively challenged big power, no hit guys were Avila picks (See Eric’s note about Miranda likely being an Avila guy, too).
Pretty clear that Harris loves him some hit/plate discipline tool. Clark, Mcgonigle, Anderson. Traded for Leonard & Lee. traded for Malloy. Control the zone, either though discipline or hits.
The other thing they did was for the first time in forever, they got a few guys to really improve. Justice Bigbie (who is criminally underrated here) was only the most obvious one of a # of guys.
They also revamped the pitching program..which is where you see the leaps that Jobe, Melton, Madden took. Biggest difference was they tailored it to the specific pitcher’s strengths (Under Avila it was more of “This is our way” approach)
Don’t forget Kerry Carpenter – kid’s looking like Diet Ethier
Yeah, it does seem like that’s changing. I was skeptical of the decision to take Clark over Langford, and since Langford is on every person’s rookie of the year shortlist it doesn’t look good now later. But it is true that if you wanted a potentially positionless masher that Langford would have been the call.
Also, IIRC Jung wasn’t a Top 10 pick and Keith wasn’t even a first rounder. It was totally reasonable to grab them there. Those guys are development success stories…it’s just weird that they are the only ones.
Jung was pick 1-12, IIRC? Not top 10, but, pretty high..& he also really struggled in 2022 & early last year. I think he’s one of the guys that the new regime helped. (I.E., under the old regime, I question if he would have taken the steps he did last year).
Keith was a great find & great success story. Kerry Carpenter broke out under the last regime, too.
But, overall they took too many 6’4″ 220 lb monsters who had huge power, but, poor hit tool, huge BB/K issues & could only play 1B/corner OF. It’s like they thought they were drafting linebackers or tight ends, not baseball players.
I know it has been said but Carpenter can play a passable RF. This is the organization that regularly used late career Tory Hunter, then JD Martinez, then Nick Castellanos to cover RF (I can’t remember who followed Nick but he was probably bad too). Carpenter isn’t that level of bad. If Keith or Jung are hitting well but not playable in the field, there’s still room to get their bats in the line-up. Torkelson ain’t so great with the glove either, maybe he’s the one to DH eventually. By 2025-26 (assuming these guys bats play) it could be Jung at 3B, Keith at 1B, Torkelson at DH, and Detroit finds an average-ish keystone combo via trade or FA. It’s more likely that the next good Tiger team’s strength is pitching anyway.
Tory Hunter? Who’s next, Whig Edmonds?
The Tigers passing on Langford to draft Clark underslot and then sign Paul Wilson overslot is going to go down as one of those “what were they thinking?” moments, isn’t it?
It’s especially strange, because the Tigers seem to think their competitive window has opened, so why invest so heavily in Clark and Wilson, who are still at least 3 years away?
McGonigle was also signed with the Clark savings, as well as Rucker, Dunford, and another Day 3 pick (Brady Cerkownyk, who likely wasn’t listed because he went down with a knee injury right after being drafted and didn’t get seen)
Clark signed for $640k underslot, Wilson signed for $755k overslot, meaning all the savings for Clark (and more) were exhausted just with Wilson’s bonus. All the other draft picks offset each other (for example, McGonigle’s overslot bonus was entirely offset by savings on their 2nd round pick, Anderson).
Don’t forget about the 5% savings on each.
People were saying the same thing about them picking Jobe instead of Mayer and now they look pretty even. Still very possible Clark ends up the better player and drafting for a competitive window doesn’t seem like a smart strategy.
Jobe and Mayer are even?!? Uhhhh….
I’m pretty sure that Mayer is going to an FV55 just like Jobe is here. And I think that’s probably right. There’s a ton of risk for Jobe but the ceiling is sky-high, and Mayer has had a bunch of question marks (hit tool, injuries, position) that have created some doubt for him.
Of course, its been understood for quite a while that hitters > pitchers at equal FV, though I wonder if the ridiculous dearth in available high quality pitching will ever change that. Probably not, because the reason that problem exists in the first place is that they’re constantly hurt and unavailable.
I don’t think it will ever change because just playing the numbers, positional player prospects are just safer and higher probability. If you hit on a Gunnar Henderson, you are golden for a long time. Even you hit on a pitcher, there’s always that TJ risk.
I think it has switched already. You have teams that are valuing pitching prospects over hitting prospects in terms of which players are untouchable / sought after by other teams. That’s because they think they can find hitting prospects everywhere but everyone have an organization-wide dearth of pitching. Because of the injuries.
It’s weird, right? Hitting prospects produce more WAR than pitchers because of injuries. But every team is desperate for pitching prospects. So FG is knocking down the grade of every pitching prospect by either 5 or a +, while teams either aren’t or are doing the opposite because they realize you still need pitching.
I think this is only true up to a point. Teams may value a 45 arm over a 45 bat, or even a 50, but no team would trade Henderson for an equivalently graded pitcher unless they were omega-sure that they were some kind of exception in terms of injury risk.
Of course, because the risk is so high, pitchers *simply don’t get 60+ grades anymore*, and certainly not 65s and 70s. The mythical equivalent pitcher to Gunnar doesn’t exist.
Don’t position player prospects have more value at the same FV?
And I believe there’s a few outlets who have Mayer at a higher FV (BA/pipeline?)
They produce less WAR at the same FV. But Eric already knocks down pitching prospects in FV a little bit because of this, so I think he’s double-penalizing them by a little bit.
Even so, if you have 2 equally valuable prospects (one a pitcher, one a hitter), you kind of have to take the hitter, no?
Less risk of injury/variance
I guess the argument agaisnt this is top pitchers are harder to find, but is this actually true? Isn’t 4 WAR = 4 WAR regardless of position?
I think Sad’s argument, which I agree with for players on the lower end of the spectrum (say FV 35+ to 45+ or maybe 50) is that this is inverted by demand: Teams need an essentially infinite number of FV40-45 pitching, because that’s ‘good bullpen arm’ and everyone uses so many pitchers each year because of injury. So while each individual pitcher is likely to give you less than the equivalent FV40-45 position player, you need more than twice as many of them and the competition drives up the prices.
On the high end, because you get more actual value and star-level talent is still at a premium for everyone, position players remain more valuable (Soto will get more money than Yoshinobu Yamamoto did, for instance). But no pitching *prospect* has that outlook – someone will be the next Gerrit Cole, but no one will *project* as the next Gerrit Cole.
But while the ‘value per prospect’ on bench/platoon/2nd division type position players is better than the equivalent pitchers, it doesn’t matter because a competitive team only wants like 2 or 3 of those guys (with most of their positions being manned by superior talent), whereas that same team wants to have like 15 or 16 pitchers at that level, if not more. So the price is not related to $/war efficiency, its related to scarcity. Individually, they’re not that much better than the freely available improvements, but they *are* better and you need *a lot of them* to not have to use bad pitching when pitchers inevitably get hurt.
Perfect explanation.
The other thing I’ll add is by having a bunch of those FV 35-45 pitchers, it is more likely that a couple of them will take a step- either add velocity or tweak a delivery or add a pitch, etc. that maybe allows them to play above FV 35-40 level pitcher…even if it’s only for a year until the league catches up to them or they get hurt, those are innings that are “in the bank” so to speak.
It’s kind of a bottom of the bullpen roster churn of a handful of relievers you’re always trying to improve/work with. As a fan, it’s annoying because they’re largely anonymous, but, as a team it is needed to cover innings.
This is really close to what I meant, and if it isn’t I agree with it anyway. But I’m having trouble putting it into words right now.
I think one way to summarize all of this is that it WAR isn’t totally interchangeable across pitching and position players. Your position players get hurt and you’ve typically got a functional utility guy behind them. Your pitchers get hurt and now you’re praying that the ghost of Noah Syndergaard or Corey Kluber can give you credible innings, and you’re normally wrong. The scarcity of pitching creates all sorts of weird downstream effects, and you can’t completely compensate by having a ton of position players.
Its just that depth means different things. With position players, having depth means having a 2-3 dudes who, if given a full runway, could probably be 1.5-2.5 win players available in some capacity to fill in because of injury. With 9 starters, that means ‘good depth’ accounts for about 25% of your total position player group.
With pitching, your whole staff is likely to be upwards of 20 guys over the course of a year – almost every team uses that many guys, and some approach 30. Everything but your top 3 or so starters and maybe your best bullpen piece or two will come out of this category, so you’re looking at like 15-16 dudes ideally – around 80% of the group.
There’s simply not enough pitchers to fill that for every team that wants to be competitive (or dreams of being competitive, or dreams of it in a few years if these prospects work out), so they cost more than they ‘should’ in a strict $/war analysis, because the demand is so high.
And plenty of these re-tread injury dudes *do* work out, whether for half a season or a whole one – Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney, etc are the counterexamples. Teams not only think they can make this happen because it does happen, they really have no choice because the league just needs like 30-40% more pitchers than it has.
It is the main argument against expansion – the position player group is sufficient to support expansion. The pitchers aren’t. There are not enough of them and they get hurt too often. There’s already a shortage.
I think you’re right, it is too soon to say. But Langford already looks like a strong RoY candidate, so this is a slightly different situation than Mayer and Jobe, where there are a lot of question marks about both. In this case, there’s a lot of questions about Clark because he’s young and Langford is already poised to be good. You could make the argument that all three of the teams who could have grabbed Langford and didn’t are regretting it.
If the top of the first were redrafted, I’m not sure it doesn’t go the same 1-4. I think the Bucs still take Skenes and the Nats still take Ctrews. Would Detroit still take Clark? I think they do.
I don’t think Washington and Pittsburgh regret it. For Pittsburgh, this is pretty much the best way for them to find a possible ace type. And while Langford absolutely looks like a masher, the kindest explanation I’ve heard on his defense is “poor.” Considering he’s incredibly athletic and young, that’s at least a little alarming, isn’t it?
I can see the argument for all three college guys in those top three spots. Too soon to have any kind of buyers remorse for Washington and Pittsburgh. Clark sounded like Mickey Moniak to me, and well behind the other three and Jenkins.
I’m not going to lie, I’m completely flabbergasted that the Jobe pick worked out. Seemed like the obvious reach of the draft.
Especially after how it started. He looked like it was going to be classic case of a prep pitcher wrecked by injuries, with his career never getting off the ground. Although that is still possible.
Well, can’t say it worked out yet, but it looks much better today than 18 months ago.
Yeah, in prospects the only thing that REALLY matters is how much they provide for the MLB team (or with Dave Dombrowski run teams, what you can get for them in a trade).
With that in mind, it’s looking good..but, too early to congratulating themselves yet.
Gonna be real…if Meadows’ defensive numbers are real, he’s a starter in the Bader/Grisham mold.
No real platoon issues in the minors, either.
FYI, Zabala is off to the Nippon Ham Fighters. It hasn’t shown up in the transaction logs yet, but was widely reported about a month ago.
That he is – thank you!
Not even a 35+ for Bigbie is crazy imo. I think Meadows and Keider Montero are underrated here as well. I am quite low on Jung though. I don’t think he will make either enough contact or hit enough homers to profile as a legit bat, especially if they are going to force him to 3B where he is stretched defensively.
I think they just have no idea what to make of Bigbie. I mean in what world does a 23 year old who hit .258/.339/.358 in A ball suddenly scorch AA with .362/.421/.564 the next year? His ceiling is simultaneously both impossibly high and unfathomably low.
Is the last several years of Tigers development a case study in why teams focus on hitting prospects instead of pitching? At one point there was Mize, Manning, Skubal, and Jobe all at like 55 FV and above with Mize and Manning at 60. It looks like they won’t get much out of that group.
This seems like a harsh take. Skubal basically looks like he’s going to be an ace. Mize had a decent year before his injury. Manning has put together 2 solid years. And then Jobe is one of the top prospects in the game. Expecting all 4 to becoming aces would’ve been unreasonable so this seems like a strong output for that group so far, injuries aside.
Manning’s been pretty bad unless you give him full credit for his low babips (which I don’t and absolutely don’t expect to continue).
And a big part of the point I think is being made here includes the injuries. Pitching prospects get injured and that’s a big factor in what teams get out of them. It’s not a failing on the part of the players, but it is a reason not to put too much of your resources into them.
Manning looks like a solid 4th starter?
What looks good about him? He struck out 15.8%(!) of hitters last year. Major league average for starters was 22.1%. That’s backed up by below average contact rates (that is, hitters made more contact against him than average). Even accounting for the fact that he walked fewer than average, his K-BB% was 9.2% when average for starters was 14.2%. That’s WAY below average. FIP- was 13% worse than league average. Basically the only thing he did well last year was that guys had a .214 babip against him. If you don’t think he owns that skill going forward, then he’s a bad starter. Maybe that’s fine because almost every team’s fifth starter sucks. But there’s no way I’d feel like that’s a win for player development.
A) 2023 wasn’t his first season and he was quite good last year.
B) There’s a reason fWAR incorporates popups and HRs, not just K% and BB%.
Take a look at Manning’s IFFB% and HR/FB% relative to the league average over the last two years…and maybe consider what that says about the quality of contact he’s induced.
C) I. Said. He. Looks. Like. A. #4, haha.
He’s put up 1.7 fWAR in his last 141 innings, which is absolutely 4th starter production, on a rate basis.
The injuries are the issue. Not only does it many times affect performance, but, it also delays their arrival.
Manning was drafted 1-9 in 2016, Mize was 1-1 as a college pitcher in 2018. 6-8 years later neither are established & Detroit still doesn’t really know what they have in either one.
As a GM, it’s tough to wait that long & quite frankly, if you have too many guys get delayed (like Detroit has had) & you may be out of a job before they make MLB.
Yes, that’s my point. Thank you for helping me out.
It’s about as old as Aesop’s Fables, but Branch Rickey’s adage about hotshot pitching prospects (if you have three, one will be a star, one will be perpetually injured, and one will be fairly disappointing) rings pretty true here.
Justice Bigbie as not even ranked is going to look really bad when he replaces Mark Canha as the right handed OF/DH in 2025.
Agree that it is weird he didn’t get a 35 or 35+ given the metrics, with the writeup being about the eye test not backing those metrics up and him needing to hit given his defensive capabilities.
I kept looking through list thinking I missed him
Typically when I look down at the “Other Prospects of Note” section, there isn’t usually anyone of interest, maybe one guy that I feel got overlooked. However, I feel there are several misses here. Justice Bigbie, Eddys Leonard and Wenceel Perez are all guys that I feel have a good chance to contribute at the major league level and in each case it could be as soon as 2024. I also think JHM is being undervalued here. He’s already produced at a high level for 640+ ABs at AAA. If he continues to hit, I can’t see them keeping him down all year.
I think this underrates Jobe by half a grade and perhaps a full grade based mostly on the future command grading out better than the 50 projected here. The control is already above average, and a big part of his allure as a prep was his feel.
I always characterized his high school breaking ball as a slurve — today a sweeper — so I don’t see quite the evolution Eric does?
I don’t usually play this game, but I cautioned those writing Jobe off after his initial struggles. He was one of the most unique prep pitchers I’d seen — not quite Jose Fernandez unique, but not miles away either — and it felt like a matter of when he’d actualize, not if. I completely agree that he could be ready by mid-season.
Eric recently pumped the brakes on another pitcher who wowed me as much as Jobe and who could have a similar breakout this season, Dylan Lesko (I’m just more aggressive and Eric’s take is very fair). Casan Evans and Levi Sterling (both ‘24s) and Seth Hernandez (‘25) are the next wave of prep arms who stand out to me as the caliber of Jobe and Lesko.
Your assessment of Bigbie makes no sense. He doesn’t make your top 31 list based on that great predictor of talent, the AFL? Yet a 17 yr old playing in DR (A ball at best) showed a little capability, 4th round HS player and others who have never faced a real pitcher makes it? This is same flawed analysis that writers made ( and still are making) with Carpenter both on offense and defense. Bigbie is already a better hitter than Badoo or Meadows. Stick to writing. Any future in scouting is pretty cloudy.
I believe it’s spelled Jackson G.O.B.