Author Archive: Brendan Gawlowski

On Wednesday night, the San Diego Padres eliminated the Chicago Cubs from the playoffs with a 4-1 win. A sold-out, frenzied crowd watched the Friars get to Kevin Gausman early, scoring two runs in the second after a double from Ty France, singles from Jackson Merrill and Xander Bogaerts, and a sacrifice fly from Ethan Salas. A two-run homer from pinch-hitter Gavin Sheets in the fourth put San Diego up by three, and from there, the Cubs barely threatened. It was just the latest big moment in a summer full of them for the Padres: A team that saw its playoff odds drop to 7% in late July will now head to Milwaukee for the NLDS.

When you think about this generation of the San Diego Padres, a number of descriptors may spring to mind. “Exciting” works, for all the stars they’ve rostered and playoff runs they’ve made. “Unpredictable” captures the spirit of a front office bold enough to empty the farm year after year, postseason probability be damned. “Competitive” — you heard all those F-bombs during the game last night, yes? — applies, as might “brash,” particularly if you’re from Los Angeles or Phoenix.

But watching this game, I kept thinking about how poised they looked. It’s an unfamiliar feeling watching this group: Fernando Tatis Jr. is many wonderful things, but there’s very little mellow to him or the team he headlines. In an emotional game, though, which is exactly how they looked, and nobody epitomized that more than San Diego’s young catcher. Read the rest of this entry »

While I was on vacation last month, the Miami Marlins axed their pro scouting department. They’re just the latest team to do so: Per recent reporting from Yahoo Sports’ Jake Mintz, four teams have no pro scouts and another five have four or fewer on staff, though the Nats are hiring, and as Jake notes, exact roles and titles can vary team to team.

I should be up front about my perspective: I worked as a pro scout for the Pittsburgh Pirates for four years. It was a great experience and I saw firsthand how scouts can add value to a front office, even one with strong analytical chops. While it’s gutting any time friends or former colleagues lose their jobs, I’m both frustrated and baffled when orgs choose to cut, or severely curtail, their entire department. For mediocre middle reliever money, clubs can have a team of expert player evaluators provide information that statistical and acquisition models can’t produce, and challenge some of the conclusions they can. In an era where teams increasingly rely on (similar) data to build their models and evaluate talent, scouting should be more important, not less.

Given the state of the pro scouting landscape, that’s clearly not an intuitive conclusion. In part, that’s because the scouting profession doesn’t look the same as it did 20 years ago: Statcast, TrackMan, and other tools have reshaped the role and, in some places, taken a bit of the guesswork out of the job. Some scouts still primarily evaluate in the park but many others primarily scout on video, much like Eric and I do here at FanGraphs. As with the radar gun a generation ago, in my view, these tools are both helpful for scouts and not nearly sufficient to replace them. While modern scouts must be more data literate than their forebears, sharp eyes and sound information-gathering skills remain the most critical tools of the trade. Holistic evaluation is the best way to analyze players, and scouts who can blend analytical fluency with strong visual evaluations are worth their weight in gold. Even in a world with robust data, it’s immensely valuable to have scouts who can project which players will under- or over-perform their statistical projections. To help bolster that conviction, let’s look at some of the specific ways scouts help big league clubs. Read the rest of this entry »

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Welcome to the second installment of “Wait, What?!,” a series in which I dive deep on some of the prospects whose performance has most surprised me this season.

He had me at “Italian.”

At the outset of the pandemic, my wife encouraged me to join along as she learned Italian. After months of resistance, I finally caved. The first word I learned was ragazzo, which means “boy.” The plural form (ragazzi) came not long after, at which point I was able to translate the name of the pizza joint I’d often stumbled into at 3 AM back in college. All of 90 seconds into studying, I was hooked. I quickly exhausted a couple of online courses and soon, in a sort of modern day, language-themed pen pal arrangement, I connected with a few Italians online, which improved my language skills dramatically. This will be my last article here before I take a two week trip to Italy to see those friends. As far as I know, I don’t have a hint of Italian heritage, but that hasn’t prevented me from becoming a proud Italophile.

So, when an Angels source sidled up next to me on the backfields a few months ago and started talking excitedly about a Milanese lefty they’d signed out of indy ball, I stopped paying attention before he got to the part about the upper-90s fastball and wipeout slider. Read the rest of this entry »

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As we analyzed what various teams were likely to do at the deadline, the Orioles were one of the toughest teams to peg. Just a few games under .500 and within shouting distance of the final American League Wild Card spot, Baltimore had a lot of ways to approach the rest of their season. While the Dean Kremer and Taylor Ward deals signaled the club’s intention to sell, the decision to trade Adley Rutschman to Boston not only confirmed Baltimore’s direction for the rest of this season, but also arguably changed the course of the franchise. It’s the end of an era, and a bitter pill to swallow for a fan base barely a half decade removed from “playing badly for Adley.” Not surprisingly, Elias’s claim from exactly four years ago that the competitive window was open in Baltimore (“it’s liftoff from here“) has made the rounds again on social media today.

If it’s any consolation for O’s fans, the prospect package from the Red Sox is quite a haul. In exchange for Rutschman (along with catcher Jake Rogers and cash), the Orioles have acquired prospects Anthony Eyanson, Enddy Azocar, and Kyson Witherspoon, along with catcher Carlos Narváez and a player to be named later or cash. That’s two Top 100 prospects, including a guy in the top 30, and a pitcher who could enter that orbit as well. Let’s touch on each of them individually and then muse a bit about what this means for Baltimore’s system and the franchise overall. Read the rest of this entry »

As August 3 draws closer, we’re continuing to update the farm systems of some of the clubs we expect to be buyers at the trade deadline. These teams are both contending for a playoff berth and in clear need of a significant upgrade, the kind that will likely require parting with a top farmhand or two. Today, we’re evaluating the Milwaukee Brewers.

In tandem with an evaluation of team needs and posture, we’ve also updated Milwaukee’s Top Prospect list. The new list accounts for the graduations of Brandon Sproat, Logan Henderson, and Craig Yoho, and offers a fresh valuation on several notable farmhands. The big news is that Alexander Frias, Brady Ebel, and Tyson Hardin have moved onto our Top 100, while Jett Williams has fallen off. We’ll cover them, and a couple of the other big changes, in more detail below.

The Situation

The Brew Crew is at it again. Milwaukee has the second-best run differential in baseball and a 5.5-game lead in the NL Central. As of Thursday afternoon, our Playoff Odds give them an 83.4% chance to win the division and all but guarantee a spot in the tournament. Enviable pitching depth has helped them weather absences from Quinn Priester, Brandon Woodruff, and Kyle Harrison without missing a beat. The club’s big divisional lead has even afforded them the luxury of letting Sproat work through some kinks in the big league rotation. Offensively, they’ve mostly been healthy this year, and are again working miracles with a modern version of small ball. Last in baseball in homers, the Brewers are nonetheless fifth in runs and sixth in wRC+. They take their walks, don’t strike out much, steal efficiently, and otherwise run the bases well. Potential upgrades to this unique club make most sense viewed through the prism of who can help them win a series against the Dodgers rather than who can help them clinch a playoff spot. Read the rest of this entry »