Freddie Freeman Gets His Moment, Pushes Atlanta Into NLCS

There isn’t much missing from Freddie Freeman’s sterling career. He’s won an MVP, hit for the cycle, racked up 42 WAR, captured a pair of Silver Sluggers, and has already made five All-Star teams. That’s not quite enough for Cooperstown on its own, but he’s probably only a few more star caliber seasons away from a pretty good Hall of Fame case, and given that he’s only 32, he’s got time to pad his resume. With apologies to a criminally under-photographed snowmobile ride with Chipper Jones, the only thing missing from Freeman’s career has been an iconic moment.

No longer. In the eighth inning of a 4-4 tie in Tuesday’s NLDS Game 4, Freeman stepped to the plate against Josh Hader. Hader, of course, is the sport’s best relief pitcher and an absolute terror against lefties. He hadn’t given up a homer to a lefty all year, hadn’t surrendered a run since July, and hadn’t given the two previous hitters much of a chance to hit his nasty fastball/slider combo. On his first pitch to Freeman though, his bender caught too much plate and one chance was all that Freeman needed:

Milwaukee mustered a leadoff single in the ninth, but never got any closer to tying the game. Freeman’s late dinger ultimately clinched the series, and ensured the Braves wouldn’t rue a day that could have been defined by risky gambles and opportunities missed.

The drama started before the game, with Atlanta’s choice of starting pitcher. With all of the precautions clubs take with their hurlers, it’s a bit odd that starting on three days rest remains a common October practice. Particularly in 2021, when injuries have spiked and teams have painstakingly limited workloads following last year’s abbreviated campaign, starting on three days rest has a 0-to-60 flavor that seems misaligned with modern pitcher usage. And that’s without even getting into all that we know about short rest, and how it tends to soften a pitcher’s stuff and dampen their performance.

It was thus somewhat surprising that Brian Snitker chose to start Charlie Morton against Milwaukee. The right-hander is a postseason legend and he pitched brilliantly for six innings in Game 1. He’s also 37-years-old and has never started a game on short rest before (he did, of course, lock down Game 7 of the 2017 World Series four days after starting Game 4). Snitker himself got burned using this very strategy two years ago, when he sent Dallas Keuchel to the bump on short rest with a 2-1 series lead; he coughed up three homers in 3.1 innings in a game Atlanta eventually lost in extras. This is not to say Snitker was wrong to roll with his ace, or that starting Morton is analogous to throwing Keuchel. Just that, to borrow a line from Jeff Sullivan, when Snitker wrote Morton’s name in the lineup card, Morton’s name didn’t mean what it usually does.

Morton for his part didn’t look much worse for wear initially. His velocity was actually higher than normal in this outing, and while his spin rates were down a tad, it really was just a tad. Usually though, when a pitcher is tired, command is the first thing to go, and Morton’s command wavered on him in the fourth.

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With two on and one out, Morton missed his spot badly twice to Omar Narváez. On the first occasion, a fastball meant for the outer half wound up just on the wrong side of his glove-side corner. The umpire gifted him strike two on that pitch, but he was less lucky on the next offering, a fastball he wanted to throw out of the zone that drifted over the plate. It was the same spot where Narváez doubled yesterday against Ian Anderson, and the catcher didn’t miss this one either, lacing it into left for a single. Guillermo Heredia (who started this game after Jorge Soler tested positive for COVID) nearly made an incredible throw to nail Avisaíl García at the plate, but close only counts in a couple of sports and baseball isn’t one of them:

After three days, 22 innings, and 500 gray hairs for Craig Counsell, the Brewers scored for a second time this series. Lorenzo Cain, who was only able to join the lineup after fastening his left arm to his shoulder with duct tape, followed with another single to make it 2-0.

For all that happened in the top of the frame, it’s actually the bottom of the fourth that would have had Braves fans howling all winter long if they’d lost. Atlanta scored twice on pinch-hitter Eddie Rosario’s bases loaded single, but the damage could have been so much worse. First, with nobody out and a man on first, Adam Duvall lofted a popup near the Brewers dugout. Narváez raced over, but appeared to slip slightly on the on-deck mat, which caused him to bobble and eventually drop the ball. But in a play reminiscent of Pete Rose’s catch in the 1980 World Series, Luis Urías played Johnny-on-the-spot and made a lunging catch after the second bobble:

Or did he? Replays showed the ball bouncing off of something and into the pocket of Urías’ mitt. The consensus on Twitter — and the broadcast — was that the ball hit the dirt before the third baseman could snag it. I’m not entirely convinced: I think it hit the very edge of the webbing before rolling back into the glove and I never saw a poof of dirt spring up, but you can judge for yourself:

In any case, the call on the field stood.

The second moment came a batter later and Urías was involved again. Dansby Swanson smoked a grounder down the line, and as Urías dove to his right, the ball appeared to take a bad hop. Somehow, the 24-year-old managed to keep his glove elevated to field it cleanly, and he got up and fired to second just in time to nab Rosario at second. Atlanta had tied the score but they were close to breaking the game wide open:

It wasn’t Atlanta’s first missed opportunity. In the second inning, Duvall added to his collection of baserunning blunders, galloping for home on Heredia’s soft fly to left, a ball that Christian Yelich caught without leaving his feet; Duvall was easily doubled off.

The Braves also could have gotten more in the fifth. Rowdy Tellez had given the Crew a 4-2 lead in the top half, but Atlanta loaded the bases with one out. An RBI grounder from Joc Pederson and a single from Travis d’Arnaud tied the game, but pinch-hitter Ehire Adrianza couldn’t extend the lead further.

It was thus left to Freeman in the eighth. He became just the fourth player to hit multiple homers against Hader, and his blast Tuesday evening will linger forever in the minds of all who attended. It’s a special thing when a player can build a relationship with a city that transcends the transactional connection that usually links fan and player. Freeman appears to have that kind of rapport with Atlanta’s fans, and he may have just elevated himself into the inner ring of Braves legends. In the minutes after the delirium of clinching the series passed, as the players hugged and smiled and donned their soon to be discarded celebratory caps, the crowd bellowed as one, not in celebration of its team but of its talisman: “FRED-DEE! FRED-DEE! FRED-DEE!”

For his part, Hader takes a tough loss in a season-ending game for the second time in three years. There’s no larger narrative here. Nobody in their right mind will claim that Hader can’t handle the pressure or that his stuff doesn’t play in the postseason. He absolutely diced the two hitters in front of Freeman, and induced a soft grounder right after. Even the greatest pitchers get beat sometimes, and for Hader and the Brewers, the tough luck here is that Juan Soto and Freddie Freeman have simply come through in the clutch at the worst time. There’s no solace in that for Milwaukee, of course. Baseball may be a wonderful game but it’s a fickle friend.





Brendan covers prospects and the minor leagues for FanGraphs. Previously he worked as a Pro Scout for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

69 Comments
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DontBunt93
4 years ago

My man, that was an ATV/4wheeler, not a Snowmobile. Bless your heart.

dukewinslowMember since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  DontBunt93

Chipper owning a snowmobile he uses like… once every 3 years would be VERY chipper.

kula
4 years ago

“There isn’t much missing from Freddie Freeman’s sterling career. He’s won an MVP, hit for the cycle, racked up 42 WAR, captured a pair of Silver Sluggers, and has already made five All-Star teams.”

He also won a Gold Glove.

Southi
4 years ago
Reply to  kula

Freeman is actually one of only a few players to hit for TWO cycles in his career.

v2miccaMember since 2016
4 years ago
Reply to  Southi

Although, full disclosure, one of his cycles did require extra innings to complete.

Pachoo9Member since 2021
4 years ago

Still can’t believe that 24 out of 26 fangraph writers predicted the Brewers to win this series. I just don’t get why the voting was that lopsided.

Sure the Brewers had a better rotation but their lineup is not very dangerous. And it’s not as if the Braves top 3 starters are horrible.

kylerkelton
4 years ago
Reply to  Pachoo9

The Braves rotation matched the Brewers guys pitch for pitch and the Braves proved to have more depth. People were going crazy over Burnes/Woodruff/Peralta and forgetting that Morton/Fried/Anderson are a great trio in their own right.

dukewinslowMember since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  Pachoo9

If it’s a coin flip you get this outcome probably more frequently than you think.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  dukewinslow

We’re talking about two games literally decided by one run, and then two others that weren’t exactly blowouts either. The number of runs scored in this series was something like the equivalent of one game in the ALDS (they’ve got a DH but still…). Strong pitching all around.

dukewinslowMember since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

I more meant that the probability of throwing heads 24/26 times on a fair coin is infrequent but not THAT infrequent

Cave Dameron
4 years ago
Reply to  dukewinslow

24/26 writers expecting a team to win 1 series is not the same thing as writers expecting them to win the series 24/26 times.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  Cave Dameron

Right, this is the key distinction. If every writer thinks that the Brewers are 55/45 favorites then you will literally get every writer picking the Brewers unless they want to be a contrarian.

If you asked each writer to assign probabilities, they’d probably average out to about 55/45, with some a bit above and some a bit below.

JohnThackerMember since 2025
4 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

“Right, this is the key distinction. If every writer thinks that the Brewers are 55/45 favorites then you will literally get every writer picking the Brewers unless they want to be a contrarian.”

Nah. Fine theory, but I think it flies in the face of all evidence of how the writers and real people make predictions. The writers were nowhere near as lopsided for any other series, including ones that various stat methods showed as more lopsided, such as the WC game between the Dodgers and Cardinals.

While I don’t think that people say to themselves “well, the Dodgers have a 60% chance of winning, let me roll my polyhedral die and use that to make my pick,” there’s clearly something vaguely similar going on. Writers simply do not take the team that they think has a 50% + \epsilon chance of winning, or you’d see a lot more 28-0 picks.

I understand your claim that somehow 5 writers literally assigned probabilities greater than 50% that the Cardinals would beat the Dodgers, but I don’t believe it, personally. Note that the “series vs one game” excuse has ~*zero* effect on which team has a better than 50% chance to win the round (it’s always the better team unless you have some extreme differences between the staff ace and everyone else, and the other team doesn’t); it only affects exactly how much greater than 50% that chance is.

JohnThackerMember since 2025
4 years ago
Reply to  JohnThacker

Nor is there any particular reason to believe that the contributors’ personal probability would all be so tightly clustered around a single value, and yet not for any of the other series under prediction. While you can have the theory that every writer simply picks the team that they believe have a greater than 50% chance of winning, that theory ought to result in more lopsided predictions for the other series at hand (as well as other series in other years.)

Certainly in say, the TV show format, the “somebody picks the other team to be contrarian” claim is the rule, not the exception. But even without it, you would expect a little variance among the contributors’ personal probability– certainly if you look at how widely differing other series were, including Dodgers-Cardinals.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  JohnThacker

The Cardinals put up something like 30 wins in 24 games* in September and was starting their only super good starter in that game, so if you think that no one legitimately thought they would win, you should consider expanding your horizons a bit.

*error intentional for emphasis

JohnThackerMember since 2025
4 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

“The Cardinals put up something like 30 wins in 24 games* in September and was starting their only super good starter in that game, so if you think that no one legitimately thought they would win, you should consider expanding your horizons a bit.”

Sure, and the Braves were much better in the last few months of the season as well, had a better run differential against a tougher schedule than the Brewers, and had gotten their 3rd and 4th starters back.

But you’re apparently arguing that it’s reasonable that no one* (2 of 28) legitimately thought that the Brewers were less than a 55% chance of beating the Braves in a series.

But even with the Cardinals being on a recent hot streak, the Dodgers were also just hot as the Cardinals over September (and only didn’t catch up to the Giants because they were just as hot.)

By your sort of logic, every single contributor should have thought that the Dodgers had a 55% chance of winning and thus picked the Dodgers. After all, any prediction system (including ZIPS, which takes the starter into account) had the Dodgers by a much greater margin in that game than any system had the Brewers. (Same goes for the Yankees, for that matter.)

sadtromboneMember since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  JohnThacker

You seem very worked up about this, but the idea that the Cardinals were a better team than the Braves was not preposterous at all. Subsequent events seem to have disproven that analysis, but we can’t have the benefit of hindsight in advance.

hughduffy
4 years ago
Reply to  dukewinslow

The probability of throwing heads 7/26 times on a fair coin is about a 1% chance.
The probability of throwing heads 24/26 times on a fair coin is about a 0.000484% chance.
It’s pretty infrequent.

JohnThackerMember since 2025
4 years ago
Reply to  dukewinslow

Really? Since it was in the end 26 of 28, the outcome with a coin flip is “28 choose 2 / 2^28 = 0.00061497813 = 0.0615%” That’s 3.23 standard deviations above the mean. Of course we should compare to “that rare or rarer” and add in the chances for 27 of 28 and 28 of 28 as well, so 0.000662159 = 0.0662%.” Still 3.21 standard deviations above the mean to get that result or less favorable for the Braves given a coin flip.

Is that more frequently that people think, 6 to 7 times in 10,000?

There are 2430 MLB games played a year, so the essentially the event was something that you’d expect to see one and a half times in all the games played every year. Basically as rare as someone hitting for the cycle (or a no-hitter until they got more common recently.)

So yeah, I suppose it’s possible that the Fangraphs contributors all agreed with the stats and thought it was a coin flip, and then we just had the cycle or no-hitter of predictions, with 26 of 28 randomly coming down for the Brewers… or perhaps on average the contributors disagreed with the statistical predictions and were more pro-Brewers than the stats.

dukewinslowMember since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  JohnThacker

Yes quite literally as humans tend to underrepresent extreme outcomes when ev between outcomes is equivalent (now if “Braves”= the end of the world as we know it, things change)
6 in 10k is what, Leicester?

I do think it’s enough to say that the picks are correlated and the results are biased- that is, it’s extremely unlikely every picker flipped a coin.

JohnThackerMember since 2025
4 years ago
Reply to  dukewinslow

Aside from those times humans tend to overrepresent the probability of extreme outcomes, which we agree happens at times with large negative risks (terrorism, crime, etc.) but also happens when little is at stake, which happens in a large number of other circumstances. (E.g., asking people anywhere in the world to estimate the percentage of any group as a percentage of the local population.)

I’ve seen some papers suggesting that people overweight the probability of extreme outcomes when making judgments, and underweight it when making choices, which seems to be nearly the reverse of your statement (overrepresenting when EV is small, when it’s just offering opinion, but underrpresenting when it comes to actually changing behavior.)

So I think there’s a reasonable case that since this was a judgment situation people would overweight the probability of the extreme outcome. But my opinion about the typical bias could be changed quite easily, I admit.

dukewinslowMember since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  JohnThacker

Craig fox has some stuff on this but the definitive paper is Ungemach 2009 (sp?). You can even see how when you lay it out people might weight the probability appropriately, but when using a decision by experience (as we do, before calculating it out like i did), they mentally underrepresent the likelihood. As a gambler, I tend to believe people underrepresent unlikely outcomes mentally, particularly in decisions based on experience, and I think the lit backs me up there.
Definitive paper on uncorrelatinf biased advisors is Soll and Palley (or vice versa) I want to say…. 2013? In fact they should try the method for picks like these as a test of advisor expectations.

JohnThackerMember since 2025
4 years ago
Reply to  dukewinslow

Yes, but Ungemach 2009 also discusses how people overweight small probabilities on the basis of verbal descriptions of probability instead of experience. Characterizing it only as a paper about people underweight small probabilities is missing half the story.

While what you say is true about gambling, I submit that people often surprisingly have a different bias in the opposite direction to the same mathematical probability with fairly small changes in how the problem is posed.

The literature, including Ungemach, perfectly comports with the idea that people might react with the opposite bias to judging “26 of 28 writers picked the Brewers” to actually betting on flipping coins.

The mathematical bias people have when gambling is not necessarily the mathematical bias people have when evaluating claims on the Internet or answering survey questions with nothing at stake, and not even necessarily in the same direction.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  Pachoo9

Yeah, I’m not terribly surprised by this despite thinking that that the Brewers were favored. Braves pitching was unbelievable, but even then it wasn’t that big of an overperformance. I remember saying before the series that the Braves pitching was outstanding, particularly if Fried showed up in top form. And Fried’s performance in Game 2 was as good as we’ve seen him this year. What a gamer.

kylerkelton
4 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Fangraphs writers (like most writers throughout the country) were very excited about the Brewers big three, forgetting that the Braves also have three really good starting pitchers.

vslykeMember since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  kylerkelton

The Brewers big 3 gave up 3 runs (the Joc HR in Game 3) and the Braves somehow won the series 3-1. Unbelievable.

WARonEverything
4 years ago
Reply to  vslyke

not unbelievable because they also only pitched 16 innings total. leaving more than that for the bullpen.

hughduffy
4 years ago
Reply to  vslyke

The Brewers big 3 pitched 17.1 of their 34 innings pitched. The bullpen was their weak spot in the second half, and Devin Williams was missed. Does Counsell use Houser in game 1 or Game 3 the same if Williams is healthy? Does he bring in Josh Hader in the 8th inning of Game 4?

DH
4 years ago

“In any case, the call on the field stood.”

It wasn’t so much that the call stood as it was that the call was not reviewable, which probably merits its own article.

villapalomaresMember since 2025
4 years ago
Reply to  DH

Good point DH. I was totally confused by the review until it was later explained as unreviewable. And the rule makes sense in the infield where runners are involved, but this was a foul ball and had no bearing on base runners. A deep dive on this rule and the ground rule double rule would be interesting.

kylerkelton
4 years ago

One of the best, Josh Hader, coughs up the season-ending home run and heart attack Will Smith pitched 3 innings without allowing a run. Baseball baby. Go Braves.

dl80Member since 2026
4 years ago
Reply to  kylerkelton

Heart attack Will Smith

“Gettin’ fibby with it”

docgooden85Member since 2018
4 years ago

I honestly find it unsettling to my sense of objective reality that anyone with eyes and a brain could possibly watch that replay and see anything besides the ball quite clearly hitting the ground. I also think the screenshot you chose is misleading. That was not the nadir of the ball’s flight. I assume this is unintentional and will be fixed.

Bud SmithMember since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  docgooden85

I’ve watched the gif dozens of times now, and cannot understand why anyone would say that the ball hits the ground when the ball clearly never touches the ground.

hughduffy
4 years ago
Reply to  Bud Smith

If you look at second 26 on the gif, you can see the ball hit the ground before Urias scoops it in the glove. If you go by frame by frame, it’s clearly lower than the glove, then bounces up as the glove scoops it up. If you watch it in real time, it’s very difficult to see that happen, but that’s what happened.

Spahn_and_Sain
4 years ago
Reply to  hughduffy

Here’s that second 26, once through and then once paused at the ball’s lowest point: imgur . com/a/5Wpu4Z1
It really looks to me that the ball deforms the glove just as it hits that low point and doesn’t bounce in a way that suggest the glove hit it from the side.
(sorry for the deliberately broken format, the comment system throws links into prolonged moderation)

hughduffy
4 years ago
Reply to  Spahn_and_Sain

Here’s that half-second again, slowed down to 1/16th speed, and cropped to the glove and the ball: imgur . com/a/QJs9YAG
(broken link is fine)
At that speed, you can see the ball dip below the level of the glove before coming back up. The glove deforms, but it is not under the ball at that point. The glove doesn’t hit the ball from the side. It slides underneath and just scoops the ball up.

proiste
4 years ago

The 2021 Brewers out here proving that you do need to score runs to win baseball games

kylerkelton
4 years ago
Reply to  proiste

Big, if true.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  proiste

The Brewers have managed to do the hard part–they have three top pitchers who you feel comfortable throwing out there in the playoffs. A true #1, a true #2, and a true #3–almost no one has that! But clearly, they have a lot more work to do to clean up the offense. There won’t be any glaring holes except the infield corners, and right field if Garcia opts out. But they’ve got a window where they can be legit championship contenders if they can find a big bat at one of those slots and good enough bats at the other two (which will be way easier if Garcia is back). I don’t even think they need a Juan Soto like monster, but someone like Josh Donaldson would really help them a lot.

kylerkelton
4 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Unfortunately, they thought they had a big bat to slot in the middle of the lineup for years to come but he disappeared on them. :'(

sadtromboneMember since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  kylerkelton

The guy has had some back injuries and back injuries don’t heal up like other ones…they kind of linger. I don’t know what needs to happen to keep him healthy–maybe he needs to move back to first base? But if his back isn’t right the big bat is not returning.

PC1970Member since 2024
4 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

It’s not just Yelich, either. They’re paying Lorenzo Cain $17-18M & injuries have turned him into a slightly below league average hitter. Paid Jackie Bradley $11M & while his bat was never his forte, he basically became unplayable. Add in Keston Hiura being unplayable, too.

Imagine if they hadn’t traded for Adames or Urias hadn’t turned it around.

Hiura probably hurts the most, as what he was SUPPOSED to be while being paid peanuts would greatly help Milwaukee.

Bad luck? Bad process? Either way, they do need to find some bats

sadtromboneMember since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  PC1970

Yeah, although Cain being an average hitter isn’t that much of a shock, and he’s still good value if he isn’t hurt because of the defense in CF. Yelich being a league average hitter though is just bad news. If he doesn’t bounce back to being a 130 wRC+ hitter or something like that then things will be bad, and with the back injuries I’m not sure if they can count on that.

v2miccaMember since 2016
4 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Yeah, tell that to the 2015 Mets. They also were set with a deadly 3 man rotation that were all still young and cost controlled for years to come. Pitching is just too volatile. Elbows break. Achilles rupture. Supermodels dump your one time ace sending him into a nasty downward spiral. Putting together three top pitchers isn’t the hard part. Maintaining the three top pitchers is the hard part.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  v2micca

Hmm, that also seems like a hard part. Well, they got the first hard part down at least.

Dmjn53
4 years ago
Reply to  proiste

One of my favorite old cliches is “pitching wins in the playoffs”. It turns out scoring more runs than the other team wins in the playoffs

PC1970Member since 2024
4 years ago
Reply to  Dmjn53

Thank you, Troy Aikman!

howieloader
4 years ago

How was this series so absurdly misjudged by the writers at FG??? How did 26 writers think Milwaukee (who was 15-14 in the final month of the season) would win when only 23 predicted the Dodgers would beat the Cardinals??? It almost feels like no one was actually paying attention to the team in Atlanta, or was just wishfully hoping they would lose… This series wasn’t even close really… The Braves pitching completely dominated the Brewers… Talk about your swings and misses… #ChopOn

jtricheyMember since 2021
4 years ago
Reply to  howieloader

Why do people get their feelings hurt over this? The Braves did not play well for a large chunk of the season, the Brewers did play very well for a large chunk of the season. Playoff predictions often focus on pitching, rightly or wrongly. The Braves only won 88 games. Who cares if 15 writers picked Brewers or 26? The Brewers were favored in general.

hughduffy
4 years ago
Reply to  jtrichey

I think it is more funny, and maybe shows a blind spot or kind of group think among the Fangraphs writers. When the errors are correlated all one way, the reason may be the same.

And it’s perhaps common to the readership as well. I got downvoted on a comment on the World Series prediction post that pointed out that the Brewers starters didn’t exactly have great career numbers against the Braves. I ended by saying, “This is a more even series than it looks at first glance.” And it was!

If someone told me in advance that the Brewers would limit the Braves to 12 runs in 4 games, I’d say that’s going to be a tough series. That the Braves limited the Brewers to 6 runs in those 4 games was more surprising to most, I think.

proiste
4 years ago
Reply to  hughduffy

Who really cares though? The playoff predictions were largely for-fun and most of the writers said they just went off of gut feeling. There’s probably some bias there, but the article was literally just a collection of personal opinions. I don’t really see the point in arguing with it like this

TKDCMember since 2016
4 years ago
Reply to  proiste

My feelings weren’t hurt. The Braves actual chances of winning were obviously completely unaffected by what the FG staff thought of them. I definitely don’t ascribe some nefarious, anti-Braves motives either. It’s pretty common for fans and experts alike to fall in love with starting pitching, especially in a short series. It takes a keener eye to see what really matters, which is obviously which team has the most pearls.

dukewinslowMember since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  jtrichey

I’d say we should be Bayesians about this and update our expectations as the season moves on unless something says we shouldn’t. This is a pretty extreme example- the Braves were the second best team in Baseball in the second half? That should weight on your expectations more than the first half.

JamesD84
4 years ago
Reply to  jtrichey

I think Braves fans are so butthurt about perceived lack of respect because it has happened so often recently. Before 2018, FanGraphs gave the team a 0.9% chance, less than 1 in 100, of winning the division, 4th best. They won by 8 games. Before 2019, FG gave them a 13% chance, 4th best. They won by 4 games. Before 2020, FG gave them a 28% chance, 2nd best in the division. They won by 4 games (out of 60). In the first round of the playoffs, 16 of 20 FG writers picked them to lose to the Reds, who had won 4 fewer games. They won that series and their next one and were the only team to come within a game of beating the Dodgers. After all that, this year FG said the Mets had a 58% chance of winning the division and the Braves 31%. When the Braves won by 6 games, 26 of 28 FG writers said they’d lose to the Brewers. And it’s not just FanGraphs; other stats-oriented sites have said basically the same thing for the last four years. There are plausible arguments to be made for any one of those predictions, but taken together, it looks like a pattern of consistent undervaluation of the team (which has had a relatively constant and young core). Loss of the All-Star Game may also aggravate fans’ frustration.

dukewinslowMember since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  JamesD84

Projection systems probably just systematically underestimate the youth’s production

sadtromboneMember since 2020
4 years ago
Reply to  howieloader

This is another opportunity remind people that it if every writer believes the Brewers have a 51% chance or greater of winning the series, then every writer will pick the Brewers. It doesn’t mean they think the Brewers have a 100% chance of winning; it means 100% think the Brewers have a 51% chance of winning or greater.

The fallacy here is thinking that a single writer is picking the outcome in a multiverse, versus the fact that you’re asking a cross section of writers to pick a single outcome. If you asked me to simulate the Brewers/Braves matchup 28 times, that’s a multiverse analysis. I’d expect the Brewers to win in 15 or 16 of them because I would have put the series at about 55/45. If you ask me and all my friends to who we think is going to win and we all think it’s 55/45, you’d expect the Brewers to get 28 votes.

JohnThackerMember since 2025
4 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

“This is another opportunity remind people that it if every writer believes the Brewers have a 51% chance or greater of winning the series, then every writer will pick the Brewers.”

Mostly (after accounting that someone always wants to pick the underrated team), but we also should not expect every writer to believe that the Brewers would have a 55% chance. We should expect there to be a distribution in beliefs about the probability. The idea that everyone had exactly the same probability is itself odd, especially when that *didn’t* happen with games that had *much* larger differences according to every prediction scheme out there (such as Dodgers-Cardinals.)

The idea that everyone would have exactly the same personal probability for this series, but not other series, is just as unusual as claim. It doesn’t answer the question, it merely rephrases it. This isn’t some kind of ideal frequentist or classical philosophy of probability problem.

bravesfan
4 years ago

more ink needs to be spilled on Lorenzo Cain. Guy was clearly uncomfortable out there at best, couldn’t throw a lick, but still raked. hat tip
EDIT: in game 4

hughduffy
4 years ago
Reply to  bravesfan

Lorenzo Cain has always been one of my favorite ex-Royals from the 2015 WS winning team. Going 2 for 4 with an RBI and a stolen base when he’s all banged up, and still making plays in center field?

Antonio BananasMember since 2026
4 years ago

What is Duval’s negative base running WAR for the series?

TKDCMember since 2016
4 years ago

I fully expected him to run into the second baseman on that Pederson RBI groundout.

Antonio BananasMember since 2026
4 years ago
Reply to  TKDC

I would not be surprised if he ran the bases backwards next series.

Dan B
4 years ago

It was one thing for my Brewers to lose, it makes it much more painful to see joy in the faces of those Tomohawk chopping fans.

Antonio BananasMember since 2026
4 years ago
Reply to  Dan B

You can’t say that and still cheer Hader.

Dan B
4 years ago

60,000 people, including kids tomohawking = #30org.

bluerum29
4 years ago
Reply to  Dan B

Love seeing it and hearing it. #chopon

Pachoo9Member since 2021
4 years ago

I wonder how many votes the Braves will get in the NLCS series (if there actually is another vote after we know who will be in the ALCS and NLCS). Whether it is the Dodgers or Giants facing the Braves, I could quite easily see 26 out of 26 picking against the Braves. I know that is how I would vote (this coming from a Braves fan).

Maybe we see the same results, only 2 out of 26 or 28 picking the Braves to win.