This past week may have represented the eye of the cyclone. No team moved more than nine percentage points in TOTAL% from where they were last week or more than two spots in the rankings. It was nice that nothing too major happened in the Majors this past week, as we here at FanGraphs all had the wind knocked out of us when we learned that Dave Cameron was diagnosed with Acute Myeloid Leukemia. We are all very hopeful that Dave is going to beat this, but if you wouldn’t mind taking a minute out of your day to say a prayer for him or wish him luck as he embarks on this new journey, we here at FanGraphs would all greatly appreciate it.

(As always click here to check out the methodology behind the Power Rankings.)

1. Boston: Last week – 1, WAR% – .673 (1), FAN% – .605 (1), TOTAL% – .646
Depending on what type of player you feel qualifies for the award, Jacoby Ellsbury may or may not be the American League Comeback Player of the Year, but he definitely does embody the spirit of Massachusetts.

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The Astros might have the most tradable chits this week, but that doesn’t mean they’re in an enviable position. With ownership in transition and a GM who will, in all likelihood, be searching for employment this winter, there aren’t many easy decisions. New ownership has given a directive to cut payroll by about $15 million next year, but that certainly comes with the caveat of making moves that benefit the team long-term. That’s what makes the deadline so difficult for them. Can they get more value now, or would they be best served in the off-season, when there might be more buyers?

The question applies to a few players on the Astros roster, but perhaps none greater than Hunter Pence. His name appears in trade rumors almost as frequently as Carlos Beltran’s, though his status in the trade market is less certain. The Astros are under no obligation to trade him now, but given the need among contenders for a quality outfield, particularly in the corners, they figure to find a few palatable deals proposed this week.

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If you’d like to work for in baseball:

Executive Development Fellow (EDF) – Web Software Development, Baseball Systems
Full job posting and application process can be found online at www.indians.com/jobs.

The primary responsibilities of the EDF are to assist the Software Development staff with designing and supporting web-based applications for the Baseball Department. Through an intensive and structured 12-month immersion program, the EDF will also be exposed to other facets of the Indians business operations and will participate in a comprehensive orientation and mentoring program to enhance professional development.

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Earlier this year, The New York Times’ Economix blog had a discussion of a study conducted by the economists Stacy Dale and Alan Krueger (Princeton). The researchers looked at the value students derive from what they termed ‘elite’ colleges. Their study’s twist was that instead of only looking at the schools students attended, the researchers also looked at the schools students applied to. Interestingly, the researchers found that the average SAT score at the most selective school a student applied to was more predictive of that student’s future earnings than the average SAT score at the school the student attended. The researchers hypothesized that applying to selective schools may be an important indicator of future success since the decision to apply to a selective school may be an indication that the student has characteristics that will help them later in life beyond measures such as high school GPA, SAT score, etc… which typically factor heavily into college admissions decision.

I bring up this piece of research because as I was analyzing the data for the return on over-slot signees I was struck by the number of players who signed for just a few thousand dollars over MLB’s slot recommendation but with the benefit of hindsight would have been drafted much higher. Mike Stanton signed for $55,000 above slot in the second round of the 2007 draft; Brett Lawrie signed for $20,000 above slot in 2008; Danny Duffy signed for a mere 500 dollars above slot in 2007; Brandon Belt signed for $25,000 above slot last year, and the list goes on.

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Marlins 5, Mets 4

Moving the Needle: David Wright gives the Mets a lead with a homer, +.396 WPA. Down 3-2 with none on and two outs in the seventh, Carlos Beltran singled. That brought up Wright, who, after going down 0-2, worked the count full before popping one over the wall in left. The 4-3 lead would last just an inning, though, as the Marlins came back in the eighth to reclaim the lead and take the game.

Notables

Logan Morrison and Mike Stanton: both 2 for 4, 1 HR. Both of them were homers to lead off innings, too. Stanton’s shot in the second gave the Marlins a 2-1 lead, while Morrison’s shot in the eighth tied the game at four.

David Wright: 3 for 4, 1 2B, 1 HR. He’s 6 for 14 with three doubles and a homer since coming off the DL.

Also in this issue: Angels 9, Orioles 3 | Diamondbacks 7, Rockies 0 | Red Sox 12, Mariners 8 | Cubs 5, Astros 4 | White Sox 4, Indians 2 | Reds 4, Braves 3 | Rays 5, Royals 0 | Tigers 5, Twins 2 | Dodgers 3, Nationals 1 | Yankees 7, A’s 5 | Phillies 5, Padres 3 | Blue Jays 3, Rangers 0 | Pirates 4, Cardinals 3 | Giants 2, Brewers 1

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The trade deadline will pass at 4:00 PM EST on Sunday July 31, giving teams a week to make deals before having to resort to the waiver wire.

Clubs approach the deadline differently based on goals relative to their current position in the playoff picture and their financial outlook. Playoff locks will look to improve a minor roster deficiency, while teams on the fringe will try to plug a major hole to shed their quasi-contender status. Some teams might try to unload a bad contract, even if they have to pay a large portion of the remaining salary. Teams clearly out of the race may look to trade away their valuable major league assets for prospects in the hope of contending in the future.

Despite the varying approaches, each team has a certain level of need to get things done. To that end, I decided to rank the teams in order of their levels of necessity as a makeshift primer of what can be expected as the deadline draws nearer.

The rankings are based on the goals mentioned above but don’t follow a specific formula. Not every team at the top is a fringe contender in a tight race, and the bottom third isn’t dominated by teams out of the playoff picture. The cellar-dwelling Astros, for instance, have as pressing a need to make moves this week as the Cardinals, who are tied in their division. Their respective spots in the rankings reflect the similar needs.

For the serious contenders, success in the playoffs did come into play to an extent, though it was definitely balanced with the likelihood they make the playoffs to begin with. The list is presented in order from least pressing to most pressing need to make moves this week, and our first group features as many contenders as non-contenders.

#30 – Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox are way too strong to miss the playoffs. In fact, they might be the one contender capable of dealing away pieces based on their depth. If Jed Lowrie were healthy, the Sox could deal Marco Scutaro to a team like the Diamondbacks, who desperately need a shortstop. Scutaro is unlikely to be moved, but if any team could unload an everyday position player and not miss a beat, it’s the Red Sox. Word is they might be looking to acquire a backup outfielder and a 5th starter, but their odds of making the playoffs and winning the world series don’t hinge on either move.

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Here on FanGraphs, we talk a lot about probability and likely outcomes. When making a decision, we think it’s generally wise to understand historical precedent, and to learn from history rather than repeat it.

But, there are times in life that you’re not making a decision, and knowledge of the probability of outcomes just doesn’t help at all. You are just rooting for one specific result, even if you don’t have any control over whether it occurs or not.

I’m now in one of those situations. Last week, I was informed that I have Acute Myeloid Leukemia, a particularly nasty member of the cancer family. History has given my doctors all kinds of data about cure rates and life expectancy, and statistical analysis is helping them decide just what kind of chemotherapy I’ll be taking in a few hours, which I’m really thankful for.

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Please leave questions about SIERA in the comments to this post. I will respond to as many as possible in a follow-up post soon. Thank you all for your interest.

While the barriers between traditional and advanced baseball analysis are falling every day — hearing David Cone cite FanGraphs during a Yankees-Rays broadcast this week was awesome — there are still certain players who are a wedge between non-saberists and saberists. It’s always the same pattern: one side thinks Player X is awesome, the other doesn’t. Flame wars ensue. Each side cites statistics to back up their position, then declares that the other side’s statistics are worthless.

Ryan Howard is one of those players. Traditionalists love him because he posts huge home run and RBI totals; saberists say he’s overvalued because of those same stats. And so the fight continues — wOBA vs. HRs, WAR vs. RBIs. In the end, the debate isn’t about Howard at all — it’s about which stats you want to believe.

I noticed one of these pro-Howard, anti-WAR columns the other day and it made me curious: Can I explain why Ryan Howard’s 2011 season is overrated without using sabermetric statistics? Can I point out that his contract overpays him without using information that would turn off a casual baseball fan? As it turns out, it’s pretty easy to do — though it’s worth noting that saberists might be dismissing Howard’s RBI “skills” too quickly.

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