Archive for August, 2011

FanGraphs Power Rankings – 8/15/11

This week, the Power Rankings were more stagnant than ever before. A total of 18 teams remained in the same spot that they were a week ago. One of those teams was the 10th ranked San Francisco Giants. As the season progresses and first-half media darlings like the Indians and Pirates fade from the spotlight, the Arizona Diamondbacks have captured the baseball world’s attention, and rightfully so — they play not only a good brand of baseball, but also an entertaining one. But it would be folly to sleep on the Giants. Since (arbitrary endpoint alert!) running off five wins in their first six games after the All-Star break, they are just 9-14. Carlos Beltran has done little to help the offense, which recently set a Major League record with 21 consecutive solo home runs. Despite all of this though, they still are just two games behind Arizona. With three of the 14 best pitchers in the game, a shut down bullpen and the hope that Brandon Belt gets more playing time in his fourth stint in the Majors this year, it’s not all doom and gloom for the Giants. They may not be the “it” team at the moment, but we shouldn’t forget about them either.

(As always click here to check out the methodology behind the Power Rankings.)

1. Boston: Last week – 1, WAR% – .674 (1), FAN% – .605 (1), TOTAL% – .656
John Lackey was the sultan of suck over his first 14 starts this season, allowing 61 runs in 78 innings for a RA of 7.04. Since, he has allowed “just” 21 runs in 43 2/3 innings, for a less-sucky-but-still-kind-of-sucky-considering-his-salary 4.33 RA.

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Tigers Acquire Delmon Young

Earlier today, Matt Klaassen praised the Tigers for being aggressive in their pursuit of a division title over the winter. This afternoon, Dave Dombrowski continued to add to his roster down the stretch, as he picked up Delmon Young from the Minnesota Twins in exchange for two minor league players. Given the kind of production that the Tigers have gotten from their outfielders this year, it’s not that surprising that they’d be in the market for an upgrade.

Given how poorly Young has played this season – and, really, throughout almost all of his disappointing career – there aren’t many contenders in baseball for whom he would represent a legitimate option as a regular player. His .292 wOBA is the worst of his career, and is especially lousy for a corner outfielder who also hurts you defensively. Young was quite a bit better last year, however, and has shown power in years past. We should expect that he’ll hit better down the stretch than he has to date in 2011, and if he does, he might actually represent an upgrade over what the Tigers have been getting from their right fielders.

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Carlos Zambrano Pitched, Too

Carlos Zambrano is back in the news. Unfortunately, in the world of Carlos Zambrano, no news is good news. This time, Zambrano exploded after giving up five home runs to the Atlanta Braves on Friday: he threw up-and-in at Chipper Jones, was ejected, and then promptly emptied out his locker and left the Cubs clubhouse with rumors of his retirement abound. Of course, Zambrano realized some $25 million over the next year-and-a-half is too much to walk away from. Now, the Cubs have placed Zambrano on the disqualified list for the next 30 days, and we surely haven’t heard the end of this battle.

All too often, Zambrano has made it difficult to remember he also, you know, pitches every once in a while. As Fox Sports’s Jon Morosi reminds us:

So while Zambrano told the Associated Press that he had a “fresh mind” after signing the extension, it didn’t last. Yes, he threw a no-hitter in 2008, but that’s not what comes to mind when you hear his name. You think about him attacking the Gatorade machine with the baseball bat (on live television). You think about him pitching a fit at Derrek Lee in the dugout (again, on live television). You think about him declaring the anger management issues a thing of the past, when in fact they were not.

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Sticking with the Royals Veteran Outfield

The pieces are starting to fall into place for the Royals. They’ve started unveiling their youth movement this year, bringing up a number of their top prospects. Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, and Danny Duffy lead the charge of high-end prospects who have debuted in 2011, but they’re not the only newcomers from the highly touted farm system. Jeremy Jeffress, Tim Collins, Aaron Crow, Salvador Perez, Johnny Giavotella, and others have contributed in 2011. More will follow in September, and we could see a turnaround really start in 2012.

Even though the Royals do have plenty of potential in their young players, they will not fill the entire roster with 23-year-olds. Every team needs some kind of veteran presence. The Royals do have some experienced players on their roster. In fact, their entire outfield is currently composed of players in their late 20s. These three players — Alex Gordon, Melky Cabrera, and Jeff Francoeur — have led the team in almost every offensive category this season, and it could be worth their while to keep a few of them around as their youngsters grow into major leaguers.

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In Praise of the Tigers and the Brewers

Earlier this summer, I took an easy (but deserved) shot at the Florida Marlins’ ownership for never really putting out the effort to win despite having a solid core of young talent for years and a large profit margin thanks to revenue sharing. I’m not taking it back now, but while it is admittedly fun to be negative (kudos on the handling of the Logan Morrison situation, boys!), I come today not to bury two more teams, but to praise them. The Detroit Tigers and Milwaukee Brewers are both currently winning their respective divisions. Whether or not it lasts, they deserve credit for going for it when they easily could have justified playing it safe. They are the anti-Marlins of 2011.

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One Night Only: Game Previews for August 15th


Jose Constanza provides excellent return on your entertainment dollar.

Featured Game
San Francisco (4) at Atlanta (4) | 19:00 ET
• Behold! as one team (San Francisco) attempts furiously to claw itself back to the top of the NL West.
• Behold! as a second team (Atlanta) clings furiously to its Wild Card lead.
• Continue to behold!, as pitcher Madison Bumgarner (10) is good and young and due for, like, six kinds of regression.
• Provided you still have the strength, consider beholding! the Atlanta Braves’ right field area, where maybe Jose Constanza is instead of Jason Heyward.
• Which, “multiple and conflicting emotions” is a perfectly legitimate response to that.

Audio Feed: Giants Radio.

Also Playing
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire. The average NERD Game Score for today is 5.2.

The following Game Scores include the new and improved playoff-odds adjustment, which you can learn about in your brain by clicking here.

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 8/15/11


Marlins Option Credibility to Triple-A

On Saturday night, the Florida Marlins decided that Logan Morrison needed to spend a little more time in the minors, so they optioned their starting left fielder back to Triple-A. According to Morrison, he was so angry with the decision he left the room before the explanation got further than “you’re hitting .249,” which is understandable given that Morrison has been the Marlins second or third best hitter by any decent metric you want to use. Clearly, a low batting average wasn’t the only reason the Marlins decided to ship “LoMo” back to the minors.

It doesn’t take a lot of reading between the lines to piece together a decent idea of what happened here. GM Larry Beinfest told MLB.com that Morrison needed to “work on all aspects of being a Major Leaguer,” but that’s just vague enough to be a catch-all for production on the field and all the off field stuff that comes with life in the big leagues. As Joe Capozzi notes, Morrison skipped out on a photo session with season ticket holders on Saturday after reportedly being told by Wes Helms – the team’s union representative – that he didn’t have to participate. A few hours later, Morrison is optioned out and Helms is released. You do the math.

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The Morning After: Game Recaps for August 14th

Blue Jays 5, Angels 4

Moving the Needle: Brett Lawrie ties the game with a double in the ninth, +.414 WPA. Lawrie might have gone nuts after his first career grand slam, but in terms of winning games this one was just as big. With one out in the ninth he doubled home the tying run, sending the game to extra innings. The Blue Jays won the game when Edwin Encarnacion singled with two on and two outs.

Notables

Jose Bautista: 3 for 4, 1 HR, 1 BB. With both of the players trailing him in the AL HR race not playing (thanks to rain) Bautista extended his lead.

Peter Bourjos: 2 for 4, 1 2B, 1 3B. If the kid could take a walk he’d be a superb leadoff hitter (which is where he hit yesterday).


Also in this issue: Orioles 8, Tigers 5 | Diamondbacks 5, Mets 3 | White Sox 6, Royals 2 | Cubs 6, Braves 5 | Rangers 7, A’s 6 | Padres 7, Reds 3 | Mariners 5, Red Sox 3 | Giants 5, Marlins 2 | Dodgers 7, Astros 0 | Brewers 2, Pirates 1 | Cardinals 6, Rockies 2

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Plight of the Pirates

The Pirates were playing above their true talent level as the trade deadline approached, sporting a record that Pittsburgh’s paltry run differential wasn’t bound to support in the long-term. But at the time an outside shot still existed that the team could stave off regression for another two months and improbably win the National League Central. Moves needed to be made to bolster the Pirates’ chance for success. The roster had some holes — ones where even marginal players would represent significant upgrades.

Winning the division would have been icing on the cake, but finishing above .500 was a more feasible goal. After 18 straight losing seasons, an 82-80 record was an alluring-enough outcome given what it would mean to the struggling organization.

Instead, the Pirates have experienced their worst-case scenario. Consider:

July 15: 4-0 win vs Houston, 48-43 record, t-1st in NL Central
July 20: 3-1 loss vs Cincinnati, 51-45, 1/2 game back in NL Central
July 22-24: Drop 2 of 3 to St. Louis, 52-47, t-1st in NL Central
July 25-28: Split four-game series with Atlanta, 54-49, 1 1/2 games back
July 29-31: Swept by Philadelphia, 54-52, 4 1/2 games back
July 30: Acquire Derrek Lee from Orioles
July 31: Acquire Ryan Ludwick from Padres
Aug 1-7: Swept by Cubs and Padres, 54-59, 10 games back
Aug 12-14: Swept by Milwaukee, 56-63, 13 games back

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