Topical, science-y.

Tampa Bay (7) at New York AL (10) | 19:05 ET
A Fact Regarding the Tampa Bay Rays
Entering play Monday, the Tampa Bay Rays are a mere two games behind Boston in the AL Wild Card race.

A Second Fact Regarding the Tampa Bays Rays
Entering play Monday, the Tampa Bay Rays have an 8.9% chance of making the playoffs, per Cool Standings.

In Terms of Yankee Pitching
In terms of Yankee pitching, Ivan Nova (151.1 IP, 102 xFIP-) is pitching for the Yankees.

Regarding Ivan Nova
Per the data from Baseball Info Solutions, Nova’s changeup usage is down from 2010 (10.6% to 4.6%), but his slider usage is up (2.1% to 11.2%).

Regarding Ivan Nova, Part II
Per the data from Pitch F/x, Nova’s changeup usage is only slightly down (9.9% to 7.9 %), but his slider (0.0% to 2.9%) and cutter (0.0% to 2.6%) usage has increased.

Carson Cistulli’s Guess
Carson Cistulli’s guess is that Pitch F/x is classifying Nova’s new slider as sometimes a slider and, other times, a cutter.

Carson Cistulli’s Second Guess
Carson Cistulli’s second guess is frequently (a) directed at his own self and (b) debilitating.

MLB.TV Audio Feed: Rays Television.

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Detractors of advanced statistics love to point out specific instances where the advanced and traditional stats don’t align, as evidence that the saber-stats are far from perfect. You mean to tell me that Derek Jeter isn’t good at defense? That Ben Zobrist is as valuable as Robinson Cano? Or that Tim Raines deserves a Hall of Fame vote? Many of these sort of statements go against people’s first reactions and assumptions, making the stats backing them up an easy target for ridicule.

But these sort of debates miss the larger point: quite often, advanced stats agree with traditional assessments.  Torii Hunter was dang good at defense there for a while, and players like Cal Ripken Jr. and Ricky Henderson easily deserve to be in the Hall of Fame. Sports fans like to argue, though, and what fun is it debating topics with only one side? It’s much more entertaining to talk about things that are contentious, and as such, the distances between mainstream and saber stats can look like a gaping chasm when in actuality, it’s more like a meandering brook with handy stepping stones.

Enter Mariano Rivera. As you have surely heard, Mariano Rivera got his 602nd save yesterday, passing Trevor Hoffman on the all-time list and entering into first place all by his lonesome. As much as us saberists love to disparage the save, this record highlights an all too evident truth: Mo is the best relief pitcher of all time. And it’s not even close.

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Justin Morneau’s frustrating season is officially over.

After a number of nagging injuries to its first baseman, the Minnesota Twins decided to shut down its former All-Star for the remainder of the year. Though Morneau struggled through a number of injuries this season, he admitted he never fully recovered from a concussion that he suffered July 7, 2010, when he got kneed in the head while trying to break up a double play. The injury cost him 78 games, destroyed his season and perhaps led up to the moment last month when he said he again began feeling concussion-like symptoms — this time after diving for a ball but not hitting his head. “That’s kind of what makes this whole thing scary,” Morneau told the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. “It’s a simple play — diving for a ball — that brought this stuff back again.”

Now the 30-year-old will be back to square one heading into 2012 — and perhaps so will the Twins and Major League Baseball.

Morneau started for Minnesota on Opening Day this year, but he struggled mightily in his return to the lineup. A homer-less April was a harbinger of things to come for Morneau — who stumbled to a .227/.285/.333 slash line in 288 plate appearances over 69 games. Add to the concussion symptoms a strained wrist and neck surgery and you have what Morneau has called a “year to forget.”

Morneau’s inability to recover from his concussion is troubling for the Twins, but it also presents a major problem for MLB. While league officials have been proactive with head injuries — instituting a seven-day disabled list this year that’s specifically designated for traumatic brain injuries — concussions are a significant problem for many baseball players. The Twins certainly are aware of these issues: Former Twin Corey Koskie went through a similar situation when he was with the team Milwaukee Brewers and was forced to retire. Mike Matheny also retired for similar reasons. Now with Morneau’s situation, the Twins — and MLB in general — might need to be even more proactive when it comes to concussions.

The implementation of the seven-day DL is not not enough. While the DL move — which requires neurological testing — is a step in the right direction, it seems like too little time to accurately judge whether a player is fit to return to action. Players easily can be transferred to the 15-day DL if they fail to recover in time, but might the seven-day DL put more pressure on teams and their players to rush back from head injuries?

Brain injuries affect each person differently, meaning there’s no single solution on how to effectively treat concussions. Case in point is Morneau, who clearly hadn’t fully recovered from his 2010 concussion (his second recorded TBI in the majors prior to his August injury) and perhaps now is even more susceptible to head injuries. But for every Morneau, there’s a Jason Bay, who remained symptom-free after suffering a concussion around the same time last year as the Twins’ slugger. Despite the difference in recoveries, one thing is certain: As we learn more about the effects that concussions have on the human body, it’s clear that these injuries need to be handled carefully.

And it’s important that MLB adapt a strategy to ensure that its players receive proper treatment before returning to the field. Major League Baseball has shown a willingness to combat concussions; let’s hope the league will continue to show a willingness to further evolve as more information about these injuries comes to light.

Red is the color both of passion and arrows.

Epicurus didn’t start an entire ethical philosophy based on maximizing pleasure while minimizing pain not to have somebody, at some point in the future, develop a similar thing specifically for watching baseball. Accordingly, the aim of this edition of the Leaderboards of Pleasure is to aid the reader in liberating himself from the shackles of anxiety.

In so doing, the reader will learn that:

• Cleveland’s second baseman Jason Kipnis, besides mildly resembling teammate Travis Hafner, has been good at “hitting” so far in his brief major-league career, slashing .287/.345/.554 (.348 BABIP) with 151 RC+ in his first 110 plate appearances.

• Toronto’s Brett Lawrie continues to out-Jose Bautista the actual Jose Bautista.

• Milwaukee right-hander Zack Greinke, despite his absence from all Cy Young consideration, leads all qualified starters in strikeout rate (28.8%), strikeout/walk differential (22.9%), xFIP (2.46), and SIERA (2.40) — which is to say, he’s likely the best starter on a per-inning basis.

1. Team NERD Leaderboard
2. Underrated Player Leaderboard
3. Player NERD Leaderboard
4. Pitcher NERD Leaderboard

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Finally, awards season proper, perhaps inaugurated by last night’s Emmy Awards (more credible than the Grammys, less credible than the Gold Gloves), has begun. Perhaps the annual baseball awards would be more exciting if it somehow incorporated hours of inane red carpet banter, but instead we have to settle for seemingly endless arguments.

If you are reading this, you probably are at least somewhat aware of an added element to the arguments about baseball awards voting the last couple of seasons: the increasing popularity of Wins Above Replacement as a measure of player value. Although I personally have not experienced single-season WAR being used as a “conversation stopper” in player comparison, it seems that some people feel that happens far too often. That is unfortunate, because while WAR is a very useful tool for a getting a picture of a player’s overall contribution relative to his peers, it isn’t something that should be used to end those debates, but to recast them in a different, and hopefully better, fashion. Rather than explain WAR from the ground up (the FanGraphs Library has a good primer), or even to say who should win, today my goal is simply to show how I would use WAR in relation to the 2011 American League MVP Award in a way that probably isn’t too different from most other FanGraphs authors.

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The end of the season has been exciting times here in Power Rankings-land. This past week, five teams jumped two or more spots in the standings, with San Francisco’s jump from 17th to 13th the biggest. As a result, 14 teams slid backwards, the most of any week all season. Heading into the final two weeks of the season, the real pennant races may lack drama — outside of the Red Sox potential collapse that is — but there is some real juice in the Rankings’ races. Six sets of teams are separated by .002 or less — Tigers and Cardinals, Angels and Rays, Braves and White Sox, Rockies and Marlins, Indians and Padres and Pirates and Astros. We often hear that baseball is a game of inches, and the fact that these teams are grouped so closely both up and down the rankings really illustrates that point.

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Late in the 2010 season, I caught my third start of Colorado Rockies pitching prospect Tyler Matzek in Savannah against the Sand Gnats. At the time, Matzek was quietly floundering at the level, but still regarded as one of the best left-handed pitching prospects in the game. Over four innings, Matzek gave up only one run, but struggled mightily commanding a fastball which began the game touching 91 mph, but finished at 85-87 mph. It was a disappointing performance from a scouting standpoint, even though his final line was that of a pitcher who bent, but did not break.

The following evening, my concern over Matzek grew over something many would not even notice. While charting pitches, it seems the young left-hander spent a few too many hours watching “The Future’s So Bright” on repeat as his shades never left his face throughout the game – causing me to think Matzek considered himself “Too Cool For School“. Had he presented as the former first-round pick who signed for $3.9 million, I probably wouldn’t have noticed. However, after a sub-par performance which left Matzek looking more project than prospect, the look struck me as indifferent, leaving a negative impression.

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Angels shortstop Erick Aybar always had a pretty slick glove, but in 2008, as a 25-year-old, his bat made noise, too. Aybar showed an all-star level of talent, combining his good defense with a .312/.353/.423 line in 556 plate appearances, picking up 3.7 WAR and ranking behind only Chone Figgins and Torii Hunter and just ahead of Kendrys Morales (before we discovered the lost “s” in his name) and Maicer Izturis.

At the heart of his improved bat, however, was a .332 BABIP. Regardless of the cause — the standard “luck” idea thrown around by many, or adjustments made by pitching staffs, or another explanation — Aybar couldn’t sustain it. His BABIP plummeted to .289 in 2010, the second lowest of his career, and Aybar’s offensive game simply has too many flaws to handle such a drop. He doesn’t walk much (never a walk rate above 6%) and he doesn’t hit for power (prior to 2011, never an ISO above .111).

In 2011, we see Aybar returning to his 2009 levels and beyond, posting a .281/.319/.427 line. The resulting 110 wRC+ even outclasses his 2009 wRC+ of 104, thanks to the league-wide drops in offense. And he’s not even doing it with BABIP. In part, Aybar’s resurgence is due to a return to his old swing-happy ways.

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We had so much fun hanging out in San Francisco that we thought we’d do it again. This time, we’re bringing together Mets and Yankees (and, really, any baseball) fans for one of the last days they can all enjoy baseball — together.

And, sure, we’ll leave some football on one of the televisions, okay.

On Sunday, September 25th, we’ll blow the horn for FanGraphs East and announce happy hour drinks and our own private space for our particular brand of nerdery. Come to Amity Hall any time after one PM eastern, and we’ll be hanging out, talking baseball and enjoying happy hour prices. And there will be a ton of togetherness because really how much can you hate a Mets fan right now. Oh! Also, come downstairs. We’ve got the downstairs bar.

And this is who will be hanging out:

David Appelman, FanGraphs Dark Overlord, so dark
Mike Podhorzer, Serious about (fantasy) baseball, RotoGraphs
Eno Sarris, Fan of Graphs, Fan, Not and Roto
Niv Shah, ottoneu founder and Cleveland Midges fan
Craig Glaser, Bloomberg Sports’ goggled superhero and Mets fan
Amanda Rykoff, espnW contributor, beer lover and Yankees fan
James Kannengeiser, professional curmudgeon and Amazin Avenue writer
Chris McShane, Amazin Avenue backbone, ready to dance
Eric Simon, Amazin Avenue head honcho guy, generally nice dude
Mike Axisa, aka “Mike from RAB, FanGraphs & Trade Rumors,” you know, just Mike
Ben Kabak, River Avenue Blues!
Joe Pawlikowski, music lover, FanGraphs escapee and River Avenue Blueser

So I’m sure there will be some enjoyable conversations. Exciting even.

If you are under 21 years old, you may come to the event, but you’ll have to check in with me. The bar may want you to wear a bracelet to identify you. Annoying, but at least you’ll get to hang out and have burgers and sodas.