Archive for October, 2011

Did You Say Motte or Lynn? Ah, Screw It.


With the telephone, you make the call!

If you look at it one way, sure, it’s a little too important to let crowd noise impede you from hearing the manager during the World Series. But, at the same time, there’s only like, what?, two, three games left? Who cares, amirite? I mean, everyone phones it in on the last day of work, school, and life, right?

Well, the St. Louis Cardinals care. At least they care now. I would not be surprised to see Tony La Russa trucking in one of those big traffic signs — you know, the ones that say helpful stuff on the freeways like “Zombies Ahead!” — in order to clearly make his over-bullpenning known in Game 6 of the World Series.

Actually, despite the hilarity of the Jason Motte / Lance Lynn Blundergate, Tony La Russa’s greatest sin last night was actually under-managing. *gasp! woman faints!*

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When IBBs Attack

There were a lot of head-scratching moments in last night’s game. The evening featured bizarre baserunning, way too much bunting, and some really inexplicable bullpen management, but more than anything else, there were intentional walks. A lot of intentional walks.

Some of them were understandable, if not defensible, because of the tradition of how baseball has been managed for years. For instance, in the third inning, with Rafael Furcal standing on third base and just one out, Ron Washington ordered an intentional walk to Albert Pujols. Despite this not being one of the situations where that’s a good move, there is upside to the play – a ground ball double play gets you out of the inning without allowing the run, the best possible outcome given the circumstances. The cost of putting an extra baserunner on makes it a poor percentage play in most circumstances, but it’s a gamble that offers the best case potential, and that can make it an enticing option for many managers.

The fifth inning IBB to Pujols was more of just straight up fear of the Cardinals best hitter, as putting him on to load the bases with two outs put C.J. Wilson – not a guy who was pounding the zone or instilling faith in anyone that he could throw strikes when he needed to – in a do-or-die situation. The walk there removed any margin for error, and you have to believe that the gap between what Pujols and Holliday could produce is staggeringly high in order to justify that one. But, you know, Holliday is having a bad series, and managers often react to recent performance more than they should. If you think Holliday’s struggles in the last week are predictive in some way, then you might be able to make a case for putting Pujols on to face an inferior batter. You probably shouldn’t believe that, but it’s not entirely ridiculous.

But, have no fear, the entirely ridiculous was still to come.

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Offseason Notes for October 25th


A bearded man attempts to steal Jim Thome’s tie during a Cleveland-area event Monday afternoon.

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Offseason Notes.

1. Assorted Headlines
2. Discovery: Winter League Stats by Organization
3. SCOUT Leaderboards: Mexican Pacific League

Assorted Headlines
News as it happens about 16 hours after it happens.

Phillies Decline Options on Lidge, Oswalt
The Phillies declined options on both Brad Lidge and Roy Oswalt, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reports. Oswalt would’ve made $16 million in 2012; Lidge, $12.5 million. The players’ respective buyouts were $2 million and $1.5 million. Oswalt finished with an xFIP- above 100 for the first time in his career this season, although he still managed to post a 2.5 WAR in 139 innings — or roughly $12.5 million dollars of value. Brad Lidge, for his part, struck out 42.6% of the 369 batters he faced in 2004. His 2011 was less productive.

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Should Teams Be Worried About C.J. Wilson’s Post-Season?

“He just can’t win the big one.” Whether you believe in that narrative or choose to ignore it, someone is going to write those words about C.J. Wilson this off-season. Widely considered the best pitcher on the free-agent market, Wilson’s post-season numbers may be a cause for concern for his potential suitors. With many of those suitors watching, you have to wonder whether the 31-year-old Wilson has already cost himself millions with his poor post-season performances.
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Why Was Allen Craig Running?

Hidden among all the intentional walks and sacrifice bunts during the tic-tac-toe game that was game five of the World Series, there were two caught stealings that may have turned the game. In both cases, Allen Craig was gunned down during an Albert Pujols plate appearance. Before the face palm napalm dropped, there was a question hidden in the initial stunned silence, heard all the way up into the booth:

Why was Allen Craig running?

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Too Much Craziness For One Post

So I’ll just throw this up there and let you guys post your reactions about the game as a whole in the comments. We’ll have more tomorrow, but for now:

Mike Napoli vs LHP, career: .294/.400/.555
Mike Napoli vs RHP, career: .253/.343/.498

Mark Rzepczynski vs LHB, career: .205/.289/.284
Mark Rzepczynski vs RHB, career: .266/.357/.427

LI of Napoli vs Rzepczynski: 4.13

I just have no idea how you can let that match-up happen.


World Series Game Five Chat


Game Preview: Chris Carpenter vs. C.J. Wilson

Chris Carpenter and C.J. Wilson face off tonight in Game 5 of the World Series, in a rematch of Game 1. How did each pitcher attack the other during their first start? Should they try anything different tonight?

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Saving Dotel for Righties

A huge part of the Cardinals’ postseason success thus far can be attributed to their bullpen. In particular, journeyman right-hander Octavio Dotel, who was picked up by St. Louis at the trade deadline, has looked dominant during October; as of Sunday, he has thrown 9 innings over 9 games, allowing three hits, two runs, a walk, and a hit batter while striking out 11.

Dotel has two pitching characteristics that have helped make him more effective against right-handed hitters than against lefties: for one, he throws from a ¾ angle, which typically makes it easier for opposite-handed batters to see the ball out of the pitcher’s hand. Also, Dotel does not utilize a changeup or splitter in his repertoire, so he does not have a pitch that moves away from lefties to complement his fastball/slider/curveball arsenal. Dating back to 2002, Dotel has stellar against right-handed hitters and less-so against lefties:

    PA   ERA   K%  BB%
LHB 1013 3.92  23% 13%
RHB 1380 2.95  34%  8%

And if we look at some PITCHf/x stats, for which we have data back to 2008, we have some more strikeout-related metrics to back up this claim:

     Fastball#  Fastball Whiff%  Breaking Ball#  Breaking Ball Whiff%
LHB  1213       22%              234             28%
RHB  2323       31%              530             37%

This has made Dotel’s managers (and there have been plenty of them) more willing to throw him against righties, to varying extents (data below are since 2008, and all are for regular season games except for the last row):

                PA    RHB%
Chicago         537   68%
Pittsburgh      170   55%
Los Angeles     77    64%
Colorado        28    71%
Toronto         112   60%
St. Louis       96    63%
'11 Postseason  33    79%

Note that Dotel served as the Pirates’ closer at the beginning of 2010, so he faced a higher percentage of lefties than he has in his standard setup role.

Tony La Russa, never afraid to make a pitching change, has used Dotel against a right-handed hitter in 26 of 33 total plate appearances this postseason. While it may not be necessary for all relievers, La Russa’s short leash with Dotel against opposite-handed batters seems to be a good strategy.


Contract Crowdsourcing 2011-12: Starting Pitcher

We continue our contract crowdsourcing today with starting pitchers. Bradley “The Body” Woodrum provided a summary of the options available as part of this offseason’s class of free-agent starting pitchers.

Like last time, I’ve added some alternate questions for each of the players below — inviting speculation, for example, on whether CC Sabathia will choose to opt out of his contract or if the reader has ever been tempted to describe Edwin Jackson as “mercurial.”

While we’ll reserve all contract information until the end of the present series (to avoid bias), data from Friday’s polling suggests that this year’s free-agent class of center fielders is sad enough to make the whole world cry.

Forms after the jump.

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