There is an old adage when it comes to pitching that you have got to establish your fastball first and foremost. The other pitches are deemed ‘secondary pitches’ for a reason.” Apparently, Edwin Jackson has little use for this piece of baseball wisdom, as 2011 has seen him throw his slider more than ever in his career. Last night’s World Series Game 4 was no exception, as Jackson offered the pitch 46 times in his 109 pitches (42.2%) – nearly identical to his Pitch F/X slider percentage of 42.3 in 2011. Jackson’s reliance on the slider last night led to his seven walks – so, despite that he allowed just three hits, Tony LaRussa was forced to relieve him with Mitchell Boggs in the 6th inning. Boggs will not likely be available tonight in the pivotal Game 5 as he threw 29 pitches – his third highest total since August 27th.

Jackon’s slider usage is curious. A picther who has never been labeled a “command guy”, Jackson is one of the hardest throwers in baseball, with his fastball checking in at 94.7 MPH in 2011. For someone who has struggled with his command, Jackson has increasingly utilized a pitch that can generate sharp movement on both planes. This season, Jackson offered the slider in high percentages with two strikes, and regardless of the number of balls. When he was ahead in the count at 0-2 and 1-2, he offered the pitch 56% and 54% of the time, respectively. With the count even or full, those percentages dropped to just 53 and 49. For contrast, Clayton Kershaw, who produced the gold standard for slider usage in 2011, offered his slider in 3-2 counts 34% of the time. Kershaw’s wSL came in at 22.8 in 2011, while Jackson’s checked in at just 1.8 with 30 starting pitchers in MLB generating more value from their slider than Jackson, and just two – Ervin Santana and Bud Norris – offering it at a higher rate.

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The St. Louis Cardinals’ 16-run output in Game Three was the kind of thing we came to expect from Albert Pujols and company this season — besides the offensive explosion against the Brewers in the NLCS, the Cardinals scored the most runs in the National League by 27, a greater number than the distance between second place (Cincinnati and Colorado, tied) and seventh place (Philadelphia).

With a heart of the order like the Cardinals can boast, with Pujols, Matt Holliday, Lance Berkman, David Freese, and Yadier Molina occupying spots three through seven, nobody should be surprised — those five combined for 129 runs above average despite dealing with injuries along the way.

But there was one weakness all season for St. Louis — namely, the top of the order — and in the World Series, that weakness has risen to the forefront.

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Near the beginning of last night’s World Series Game Four, which ended up being the Greatest Game in World Series History Pitched by a 14-year old, Joe Buck and Tim McCarver were discussing Lance Berkman, specifically his status as one of the most productive switch-hitters in major-league history. Now, I usually believe everything people on TV say. For example, when Tim McCarver asserts, as he has during this season’s Fall Classic, that “Michael Young didn’t complain” when asked to change positions for Elvis Andrus and Adrian Beltre, or that “Tony La Russa doesn’t lie,” I just take it at face value. However, while I agree that Berkman is and has been an excellent player who may have even have Hall of Fame credentials, I thought I should both trust and verify. How does Berkman compare to the other great switch-hitters in major-league history, and who exactly are they?

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The annual Top 10 prospects lists are set to arrive at FanGraphs at the beginning of November. This year the lists will be even bigger with 15 prospects ranked for each team, along with a “sleeper player” to watch. This week we’re giving you a sneak peek with six player profiles (three today, and three more on Friday) for prospects that failed to make their respective teams’ Top 15 lists. FanGraphs is the only site where you can receive more than 450 detailed player reports – at no cost.

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With the World Series wrapping up on either Wednesday or Thursday night, the five day window that teams have for exclusive negotiating periods is going to expire at the beginning of next week, and the off-season will officially be underway. As is the case every winter, there are a small handful of players who are going to get paid handsomely – this year, that list includes Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Jose Reyes, CC Sabathia, and C.J. Wilson. The big five free agents – and Yu Darvish, if you want to throw him into that mix as well – are all going to be highly coveted and command bidding wars that will land them huge long term contracts.

The drop-off from those five to the next tier, however, is pretty striking. Everyone after that comes with either performance, age, or health concerns, and often a combination of the three. And, unfortunately for the non-premium free agents, they’re hitting the market at a really lousy time.

In any one off-season, teams have an available pool of money on which to acquire or retain talent. The total pool of cash might change slightly based on who is available, but for the most part, it’s driven by overall league revenues and expiration of previous contracts freeing up money that can be re-allocated to other players. At the league level, attendance was fairly flat (up 186 fans per game over 2010), and financial problems plaguing the Dodgers and Mets are threatening to take two traditionally large revenue franchises mostly out of play this winter. However, it’s not just a lack of big spenders that may end up thwarting salary growth for the non-premium tier of free agents – they also have to compete with the huge pool of talent that is headed to arbitration for the final time this winter.

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Ryan Madson is hailed as a Proven Closer.

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Offseason Notes.

1. Assorted Headlines
2. SCOUT Batting Leaderboard: Arizona Fall League
3. SCOUT Pitching Leaderboard: Arizona Fall League
4. Prospecting: John Sickels’ Top 20 Prospect Lists for St. Louis and Texas

Assorted Headlines
Amaro and the Search for a Closer
In the event that the team is unable to re-sign Ryan Madson, Ruben Amaro would like to sign an experienced closer, reports Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer — this, despite appearing to fully acknowledge the fact that Madson himself (a) was not an experienced closer and (b) performed admirably (60.2 IP, 2.63 SIERA, 2.94 xFIP, 76 xFIP-) in said role. Amaro continued by stating that the world is flat, while holding a globe in his hands.

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As advanced statistics and sabermetrics have become more integrated with the game of baseball, it has become a more widely held belief that pitchers have limited effect on what happens after an opposing batter puts the ball into play. Pitchers can generate ground balls, of course, but they must still rely upon their team’s defense to convert those grounder into outs.

Statistics such as FIP and SIERA attempt to isolate a pitcher’s true performance on the mound. When assessing a pitcher’s skill, however, scouts assess how well a guy can keep the baseball on the ground (or at least inside the ballpark), avoid walks and strike out batters. Thus, it follows that pitchers who are above-average at all three of those important skills will — on average — be more successful than pitchers who struggle with one or more of the three. Read the rest of this entry »

Some of the following twirlers can really play the game of ball called base!

In 2011, a total of 272 different pitchers started a game in the MLB — that’s an average of 9 starters per team. In other words, five starters is not enough. Successful MLB organizations need pitching depth — and lots of it. Some teams may need a 7th or 8th starter for only 1 game, but ask the Boston Red Sox how important 1 game is.

For teams in the need, the 2012 starting pitcher free agent list has some value and some worthy risks out there, but as with every year, no team should expect the free agent market to have all the answers. The following list, though not exhaustive, runs down the most important names of the 2012 free agents:

Top Tier — Starters who promise big contracts and big seasons.
C.J. Wilson (LHP, Age 31 next season, free agent)
CC Sabathia (LHP, 31, may opt out)
Hiroki Kuroda (RHP, 37, FA)
Edwin Jackson (RHP, 28, FA)
Mark Buehrle (LHP, 33, FA)
Javier Vazquez (RHP, 35, FA)

The Obvious One, Mr. C.J. Wilson, finally promises to pull in that contract big enough to purchase his long-awaited solid-gold rocket car. Wilson, the heat-hurling lord of the lefties figures to have at least two very impressive suitors — the New York Yankees and his present team, the Texas Rangers. Since becoming a starter two years ago, he has posted a combined 10.5 WAR, sporting an ace-worth 3.24 FIP this year.

Not only does Wilson have a shot to break the bank, but there appears to be a chance that twirling titan CC Sabathia may opt out of the final four years of his contract with the Yankees. Sabathia has been yawningly awesome through his 10-year career, never posting a FIP- higher than 96 and assembling a career-best 2.88 FIP in 2011.

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Last night in Arlington, Derek Holland threw the game of his life.  With the Rangers down 2-1 in the series, Holland threw 8 1/3 shutout innings, allowing just two hits and two walks while striking out seven along the way.

He went after the Cardinal hitters with five different pitches: a sinking two-seam fastball that he used as his primary heater yesterday, a straighter four-seam fastball, a tight curve, a slider, and a changeup.  The table below shows the pitch breakdown, along with average pitch speeds, for his 116-pitch masterpiece.

           #     mph
Sinker    40     94.2
Fastball  32     94.7
Slider    24     76.6
Curveball 15     83.9
Changeup  5      85.5

Speaking of pitch speed, Holland was able to throw smoke both early and late.  He took his foot off the pedal a little bit during the middle innings, but kicked it up again once he sensed the finish line:

Returning to pitch selection for a moment: facing a righty-heavy lineup (only six of Holland’s pitches were against lefties), Holland only used a handful of changeups and instead relied on his slider as his primary strikeout pitch.

“Behind” is for 3-0, 3-1, and 2-0 counts.

Of the 19 balls put in play against Holland on Sunday night, 13 of them were on the ground.  7 of those grounders were courtesy of his two-seam fastball, which yielded a total of 10 outs on the night.  Holland also garnered nine swinging strikes in his start: one apiece on his two-seamer and four-seamer, two on his slider, and five on his curve.

Holland’s performance produced a Game Score of 84, the highest mark in any World Series game since Josh Beckett also had an 84 in his Game 6 win against the Yankees in 2003.  On a day where the Rangers desperately needed a win, they got a huge performance from one of their underperforming starters.