Special thanks to Brandon McCarthy for taking the time to walk me through his experiences as a pitcher, and providing me with countless insights I never would have discovered researching on my own.

There has been plenty of ink spilt this season over Justin Verlander’s American League MVP candidacy, and he is a shoo-in for the AL Cy Young Award. A large part of the narrative is the 24 wins, but one would assume that all the gushing means he had one of the most dominant pitching seasons of the last decade. However, when controlling for run environment, Dave Cameron notes that the last two AL Cy Young winners, Zack Greinke and Felix Hernandez, had better ERA’s relative to league average than Verlander. Moving on to the advanced stats, Verlander did not even lead the league in FIP in 2011. Neither did his nearest competitor for the award, CC Sabathia. It was in fact Brandon McCarthy of the Oakland Athletics.

In 2010, McCarthy was a 26 year-old pitcher with 372.2 Major League innings under his belt toiling away in Oklahoma City, AAA affiliate of the Texas Rangers. He had been cut from the big league club following a rough Spring Training, and was toying with his mechanics and pitch repertoire, all while battling micro stress fractures in his right shoulder. Injuries limited him to 56.1 innings that season, and while the 3.36 ERA looked tidy, a 79.9% strand rate masked a less impressive 4.23 FIP.  As a pitcher who is in tune with defense independent statistics and had experienced severe arm injuries four years in a row, McCarthy said “it was at that point that I was going to have to start considering my options outside of baseball.” A year later, he was the American League FIP leader.  To figure out this transformation, let’s travel back in time.

Read the rest of this entry »

Jose Reyes will almost definitely play for one of the 30 MLB teams in 2012.

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Offseason Notes.

1. Assorted Headlines
2. SCOUT Batting Leaderboard: Arizona Fall League
3. SCOUT Pitching Leaderboard: Arizona Fall League

Assorted Headlines
Jose Reyes, Washington National?
A pair of unnamed New York Mets “wouldn’t be surprised” if Jose Reyes signed with the Washington Nationals this offseason, David Lennon of Newsday reports via his Twitter computer. While Reyes is clearly special, and likely to be worth five-plus wins in a healthy season, the Nationals already have an excellent young shortstop in Danny Espinosa, who posted a 3.5 WAR this season as the team’s second baseman. Moving Espinosa to short would open up a spot for Matt Antonelli, the former Padre prospect who had a rebound season at Triple-A Syracuse this year — and who’s also Italian, in case you didn’t even know.

Read the rest of this entry »

For those who fell asleep after the eighth inning, the Cardinals are not heading to Texas with a 2-0 series lead. The Rangers managed just three hits through seven innings before mounting a ninth-inning comeback in a rather unusual manner.

Ian Kinsler singled to open the frame and subsequently stole second base. The play was extremely close, but Kinsler’s hand appeared to touch the base a split second before the tag was applied. In real time, however, the quick tag after a tremendous throw looked to have gotten Kinsler. Kudos to the umpires for getting the call right in spite of the dramatic tag designed to obscure their perception of the play.

Elvis Andrus lined a single to center, sending Kinsler to third. Andrus advanced to second on a missed cutoff/missed catch error, putting runners at second and third with nobody out. The previously lifeless Rangers had a pulse, and with Josh Hamilton, Michael Young and Adrian Beltre due up, odds were slim that the Cardinals would escape the frame sans-damage.

Read the rest of this entry »

Probably the first blog that I ever read on a daily basis was Mac Thomason’s Braves Journal. It’s still the first blog I read every day.

When I started college in 2002, it was the first time I’d lived anywhere other than Atlanta. And I was homesick for the Braves. Then I found Thomason’s blog. I started commenting every day (which I still do) and read every word, as Mac taught me about sabermetrics, Bill James, and how to write. He’s the reason I’m here. And for the past three years, he has been fighting testicular cancer, which took a particularly bad turn a few days ago. As he wrote on his site: “The remaining cancer has entered a virulent stage…. I was told that the best measure, if they don’t find a treatment, is months rather than years.”

I’ve never met him, never even talked to him on the phone, but we’ve been friends for the better part of a decade. And I literally can’t imagine following the Braves without him. I’ve exchanged email messages with him for years, and that’s how we conducted this interview. First, he told me what he has: “I was diagnosed with testicular cancer which had spread to the lymph nodes in my torso, which happens pretty commonly,” he said. “I have been treated for this but a secondary type of tumor, called a teratoma, has developed. In most cases, these can be treated surgically, but in my case they have grown back.” The reason he preferred email to the phone for the interview was physical weakness. “Chemotherapy is poison,” he said. “It’s just poison that you hope affects the cancer more than you.”
Read the rest of this entry »

We continue our contract crowdsourcing today with corner outfielders. Eno Sarris provided a summary of the numerous options available as part of this offseason’s corner-outfield free-agent class. (While Sarris outlines a number of the free agents at the position, we’ll look at only the top five here — to “set the market,” as it were.)

Like last time, I’ve added some alternate questions for each of the players below — inviting speculation, for example, on whether Josh Willingham will post between 2.0 and 3.0 WAR for the seventh consecutive season, or whether Carlos Beltran’s new fanbase will misunderstand him to the same degree that the Met fanbase did.

While we’ll reserve all contract information until the end of the present series (to avoid bias), data from yesterday’s polling suggests that Rafael Furcal’s run with the NL Champion Cardinals will earn him a little over $2 million per annum on his next contract.

Forms after the jump.

Read the rest of this entry »

The corner outfielder often gets lumped into the mix with the first basemen / designated hitter types. You might call that part of the market the ‘last piece saloon.’ But, Raul Ibanez aside, corner outfielders need to be able to run a little bit, too.

Oh, would you look at that, Ibanez is a free agent. But who needs a corner outfielder at all? Depending on how they put their team together, the Braves could maybe use another outfielder. The Red Sox have an opening, but after their last high-priced acquisition in the outfield, and their plethora of in-house options, it might not be a priority. Both Chicago teams are a maybe, with the NL version more probable. Do the Dodgers have any money? The Giants will sign one for sure. The A’s will wait for a bargain, as they always do. The Mariners have to be considered dark horses for any piece of offense. The Nationals could try again. That pretty much defines your market, and it’s a pretty decent one in terms of demand.

What does the supply look like?

Read the rest of this entry »

One of narratives leading up to Game 1 of the World Series emphasized the Cardinals’ and the Rangers’ heavy use of their bullpens in the Division and League Championship Series. We were told to expect pitching changes early and often, especially from Cardinals manager Tony LaRussa, who has a reputation for micromanaging his pitching staff to get just the right match-up.

In Game 1, LaRussa did not disappoint. Cardinals starter Chris Carpenter threw six innings, giving up five hits and two runs. After LaRussa pulled Carpenter for a pinch hitter in the bottom of the sixth, he used five relievers out of the bullpen to pitch the final three innings. The ‘pen acquitted itself well: three innings, one hit, no runs.

In the Division Series, the Cardinals’ starting pitchers threw 30 total innings to 14 for the bullpen. That’s 68% of the innings for the starters; 32% for the relievers. Over the five games played, LaRussa averaged 3.2 pitching changes per game.

In the NLCS, Cardinals starting pitchers were on the mound for only 24.1 innings to the bullpen’s 21.2 innings, a ratio of 53% to 47% over the six games played. LaRussa made an average of 4.67 pitching changes per game.

Despite LaRussa’s reputation, his bullpen management in the NLCS is the exception, not the rule, of his reign as the Cardinals skipper.

Let me explain.

Read the rest of this entry »

“I’m about 50 percent, but I’m going to give you 100 percent of my 50 percent.”

– Josh Hamilton, last week.

Josh Hamilton is hurt. He admitted as much, and watching him during the postseason, it’s been pretty obvious that his pulled groin is affecting him. However, last night should have been the final straw for Ron Washington, as Hamilton’s 8th inning at-bat against Arthur Rhodes revealed a guy who just isn’t healthy enough to take his normal hacks.

Take a look at the swing Hamilton put on that final slider from Rhodes.

Read the rest of this entry »