The Cincinnati Reds had an abundance of redundant prospects and a big need to upgrade their starting rotation, so their plan for this off-season was obvious to nearly everyone. They needed to combine a group of good young talents who were blocked from playing regularly and turn them into one high quality starting pitcher. After kicking the tires on nearly every available arm on the market, the Reds finally got their wish today, shipping a quartet of good young talents to San Diego in exchange for 24-year-old Mat Latos.

Let’s start with what the Reds are getting in Latos, who is probably the best fit for their team of any pitcher rumored to be available on the market this winter. During his first two years and change in the Majors, Latos has been one of the better pitchers in baseball. For comparison, here are the starters who have thrown at least 350 innings in the last two years and have posted strikeout rates between 23% and 25%.

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Episode 117
Fernando Perez is (a) a former seventh-round draft pick by the Tampa Bays Rays, (b) a real-live published poet, and (c) a guest on this edition of FanGraphs Audio. Mr. Perez joins us from China, where he’s doing whatever Fernando Perez wants to do. Among the topics discussed: some writing projects on which Mr. Perez is working and what not to think about in the batter’s box of a professional baseball game.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 53 min. play time.)

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The seemingly unending slow dance between the Minnesota Twins, the Colorado Rockies and Michael Cuddyer is over. As Matt Klaassen already analyzed, the Twins will probably be better off seeing other people in right field. For Terry Ryan and Minnesota, the attention now shifts back to another old flame: Jason Kubel. Kubel has already earned some interest from the Indians, and if Kubel leaves Minneapolis, the Twins can pick up a third compensatory draft pick to go with the two the Twins pick up with Cuddyer’s departure. But reports say the Twins could be looking to keep Kubel for next season instead.

Between Denard Span, Ben Revere, Josh Willingham, Ryan Doumit, Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, Chris Parmelee, and Trevor Plouffe, the Twins appear to have the outfield, first base, and designated hitter spots covered. If the Twins really love Jason Kubel — and, more importantly, if they really love long-term assets — they should set him free.

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Early Thursday afternoon, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reported that the Texas Rangers were working on a long-term deal with starter Derek Holland. As an unabashed fan of Derek Holland (yes, despite his performance against the Rays in the playoffs) and a loather of all things having to do with the Rangers (the playoffs may have something to do with this), this news caused conflicting emotions to simultaneously flit across my mind. Sweet, great move locking him up! Arg, but why does it have to be the Rangers?

I’m getting ahead of myself, though. Why is locking up Holland a great move? If you take a cursory glance over his statistics, you’ll notice he had an impressive 2011 season: 3.95 ERA, 3.86 SIERA, 3.6 WAR. It was a breakout year for Holland, but it’s not exactly an unexpected development. He has dominant stuff — a 94 MPH fastball with plus movement, a hard slider that destroys lefties, and a changeup and curveball for attacking righties — and he was a top ranked prospect when coming up through the minors. He’s durable, throwing 198 innings last season, and he’s a mere 25 years old.

Also, it’s worth considering that Holland improved dramatically over the second half of 2011. As I noted during the playoffs:

He started off the year posting a 6.7 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9, but over his final 14 starts, he posted a 3.06 ERA while increasing his strikeout rate (8.2 per nine) and dropping his walk rate (2.7 per nine).

It’s difficult to say how much of those improvements Holland will carry over into 2012, but over the tail end of last season, he was arguably as good or better than C.J. Wilson. The Rangers have resigned themselves to losing Wilson in free agency, but they just might have the next Wilson already on their roster.

But since the terms of the agreement haven’t been released yet, what should we expect? How much will Holland get in this deal? That question is a lot easier to answer than you’d imagine.

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Amid all the joy around the news that Michael Cuddyer and the Rockies have (reportedly) finally consummated their off-season romance with a three-year contract worth $31.5 million, there is also a keen sense of loss. What will fill the void left in our hearts? What will replace the excitment we have felt over the past few weeks while waiting for hourly updates full of will-they-don’t-they rumors about the former Twin and his high-altitude suitors? All we can really do is move on to cold, heartless analysis: what the Rockies are paying, whether he is likely to be worth it (in terms of on-field performance, there is no doubt this is a win in bromantic terms), how this reflects on the market so far for free-agent outfielders, and how this might play out for the Rockies’ roster.

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Yesterday, Eno Sarris covered the potential cost of Yu Darvish by using Major League comps, eventually settling on a Jordan Zimmermann comp to go along with the $100 million price tag. While this is certainly not a financial commitment for the faint of heart, the rumour mill is saying that the Blue Jays have submitted the top bid for the Japanese star. However, Nippon Ham is under no obligation to take the highest bid, and there have been rumors swirling around the Rangers as well. While we will find out who the official winner is by Tuesday, let’s take a preliminary look at how Darvish would fit on these two teams, and which fit is best.

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The Atlanta Braves are entering unchartered waters with their youth movement in 2012. With their lack of interest in re-signing Alex Gonzalez or any other potential starting shortstop, the Braves seem likely to enter the 2012 season with rookie Tyler Pastornicky as their everyday shortstop. If this comes to pass, it would mark the third consecutive year that the Braves have begun a season with one of their farm system products as an everyday starter with Jason Heyward (RF-2010) and Freddie Freeman (1B-2011) being the other two. The fact the Heyward, Freeman, and Pastornicky will all be 22 years old on opening day 2012 started an interesting conversation between the Atlanta Journal Constitution’s Dave O’Brien and his Twitter followers due to the claim that no team in recent history has made the postseason with three starting position players under the age of 23.
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Three years ago I did a series of short interviews, focusing on baseball in the decade of the 1980s, for a book that was never published. Starting today they will begin appearing here, perhaps on a weekly basis. First up is Chris Chambliss, who played 18 big-league seasons with the Indians, Yankees and Braves from 1971-1988.

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A shot, taken minutes ago, of Michael Cuddyer amidst his new surroundings.

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Offseason Notes.

1. Headline: Cuddyer Signs with Rockies
2. FAN Projection Targets: Cuddyer, Ramirez, Willingham
3. Crowdsourcing Broadcasters: Colorado Television

Headline: Michael Cuddyer Signs with Rockies
Outfielder Michael Cuddyer has signed a three-year, $31.5 million deal with the Rockies, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.

FanGraphs readers projected Cuddyer’s contract at a considerably lower three years and $24 million.

Figuring ca. $5 million per win, 5% inflation, and a 0.5 WAR decline each season, the Rockies appear to view Cuddyer as about a 2.5-win player in 2012.

We’ll have more coverage on Cuddyer in a bit.

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The Chicago White Sox system continues to be one of the weakest in the Majors. The front office and ownership cannot fault anyone but themselves for failing to invest in the amateur draft or the international market. On the plus side, the organization has lucked into a few interesting prospects like Addison Reed and Dylan Axelrod. Chicago doesn’t have a true No. 1 prospect, although Reed has value as a potential high-leverage reliever who is close to MLB ready – and the recently acquired Nestor Molina has a higher ceiling than most of the existing players in the Sox system.

1. Addison Reed, RHP
BORN: Dec. 27, 1988
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2010 3rd round, San Diego State University
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Off

SCOUTING REPORT: It was a whirlwind season for Reed, who opened the year as an obscure, yet intriguing, pitcher. A teammate of Stephen Strasburg’s at San Diego State, you have to wonder if there’s something in the water there… as both pitchers went undrafted out of high school before seeing big-time velocity jumps in college. Reed pitches in the mid-90s with his fastball and can touch the upper-90s. He also has a slider that’s developing into a plus pitch.

YEAR IN REVIEW: Reed pitched at five levels in 2011, starting as low as low-A ball and ending in the Majors. It was a crazy ride for the pitcher that posted strikeout rates of 11.80 or higher at each stop. He also showed above-average control with walk rates below 2.00 BB/9 at each stop – save for one (2.61 BB/9 in 20.2 IP).

YEAR AHEAD: All told, Reed walked just 14 batters with 111 strikeouts in 78.1 innings in the minors. He basically has nothing left to prove in the minors and could very well be a key piece of the Sox bullpen in 2012. One thing he needs to watch out for, though, is the home run. He allowed just four all year but three came in triple-A and the Majors as his ground-ball rate diminished.

CAREER OUTLOOK: Reed has the demeanor to succeed as the go-to high-leverage reliever for Chicago and it was his emergence that likely lead to the trade of Sergio Santos to Toronto (for No. 2 prospect Nestor Molina). If Chicago so chooses, Reed and Molina could be a dominating late-game pair – although Molina has potential as a big league starter.

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