Archive for February, 2012
The Worst Pitches of 2011
by Eno Sarris
February 16, 2012
Our braintrust is hard at work identifying the game’s best pitches for all of your February needs. Now it’s time to uncover some of the worst pitches in the game — with as little snark as possible. Because even the worst pitch in the big leagues is way, way better than most of us can manage. And if a pitcher owns a pitch on this list, they must be doing something else right in order to remain in the big leagues. Either that, or they’re not long for the bigs.
At least identifying poor pitches can be a useful and enjoyable exercise. And you’re supposed to do thirty minutes of that every day, so that’s an extra benefit for us.
Contract Extension Comps for Adam Jones
The Baltimore Orioles recently avoided going to an arbitration hearing by signing Adam Jones to a one year, $6.5 million contract, but there are still rumblings about a long-term deal being in play. According to Ken Rosenthal, the Orioles have started to explore the possibility of signing Jones to a long-term deal, as well they should. Jones currently has one more year of arbitration left before becoming a free agent, and considering that he’s a young +2 to +3 win player with the upside for more, he’s the sort of player the Orioles should be hoping to build around.
Rosenthal reports that Jones wants at least a five-year extension, so that got me curious: what would a five-year extension for Jones look like? Are there any players in a similar situation to him that have signed extensions recently?
Johnny Damon’s Extra Swings in 2011
On Tuesday, Joel Sherman reported that some teams are wary of signing Johnny Damon because of how close he is to 3,000 hits. Three executives told Sherman that they were concerned Damon’s quest for the milestone has made him less patient at the plate, trading walks for chances to get a hit — an idea that was first observed by JC Mitchell at DRaysBay back in July. Sherman even cited FanGraphs data to show that in 2011 Damon swung at more pitches out of the zone than any other year for which we have the data. His walk rate took a hit, dropping to 7.9% — his lowest since 2005 and second-lowest since 1996.
The Pitchf/x data show an increase in out-of-zone swings, but not quite as drastic as the BIS data. Although, if I use the left-handed batter-specific zone reported by John Walsh, I see a jump from 26% O-swing from 2007-2010 to 29% O-swing in 2011. I think the best thing to do is look at exactly where the extra swings are coming from. Here are swing-rate contours for Damon comparing 2007-2010 to 2011. Inside the 50% contour he was more likely than not to swing at a pitch, outside of it less likely than not. Pitches inside the 60% contour he swung at over 60% of the time.
Proposal: Blown-Save Wins Should Revert to Starter
I know. Pitcher wins don’t matter. Starting pitchers are better measured by FIP and xFIP and BABIP. Relief pitchers are better measured by K/BB ratios and WPA and the percentage of inherited runners left on base.
And yet, pitcher wins matter to pitchers.
A relief pitcher shouldn’t be rewarded with a win when his performance caused his team to lose its lead, only to regain the lead while he is pitcher of record. A starting pitcher who pitches at least seven innings and leaves with the lead shouldn’t be penalized with a no decision when the relief pitcher who replaces him coughs up the lead.
I propose a change to MLB rules as follows:
(1) When a starting pitcher pitches at least seven innings and leaves the game with at least a one-run lead;
The Best Pitches of 2011: Curveball
Today marks part four of our week-long Best Pitches of 2011 series. You can find the fabulous entries on the fastball, slider and changeup here. I am tackling your other favorite breaking ball, the curve, and Ben Duronio and Eno Sarris will close out the series tomorrow.
Whether you call it Uncle Charlie, yellow hammer, the hammer, yakker, Public Enemy No. 1 or just simply a curveball, it’s one of the more charming pitches in baseball. Many try to throw it, but few master it. It is most definitely not the breaking ball of choice — over the past two seasons, Major League pitchers have thrown sliders five to seven percent more frequently than they have the curve.
Offseason Notes for February 16th
February 16, 2012
Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Offseason Notes.
1. Two Headlines: Branyan, Kazmir
2. Projecting: ZiPS for San Diego
3. Video: Vince Belnome, James Darnell, Speed Metal
Two Headlines
Yankees Sign Branyan
The New York Yankees have signed 36-year-old Russell Branyan to a minor-league contract, according to the internet a week ago. Branyan posted his first ISO under .200 last year since a 42-plate appearance run in 1999, with Cleveland. Still, this is a strong signing: the Yankees lost their primary DH when they traded away Jesus Montero to Seattle. While they might still very well sign Johnny Damon or Raul Ibanez or Hideki Matsui, Branyan is low-cost alternative as the left-handed bat in the DH spot.
Seong-Min Kim, Korea, and the International Draft
Yesterday evening, Roch Kubatko of MASN announced the most unexpected: The MLB had voided the Baltimore Orioles‘ contract with 17-year-old South Korean pitcher Seong-Min Kim.
Kim had signed with the Orioles earlier this year, but the $550,000 signing almost instantly sent the peninsula into an icy rage. The Korean Baseball Organization (KBO) decried the MLB for not affording it the same unspoken courtesies as Japan’s NPB league. This week, the MLB, the Orioles, and the KBO have taken the tack of calling the signing a “breach of protocol.”
Which is funny because:
Protocol, by definition, is official. Yet this signing hoopla is about an unofficial rule: You don’t take amateur talent from East Asia (or at least Japan and South Korea). For the Orioles’ breach (which has been officially undone now), the KBO outlawed Seong-Min Kim (on February 8) from playing in Korea (that may/should be rescinded), and they have forbid the Orioles from sending scouts to South Korea (that does not appear likely to be rescinded).
In a shame-based culture such as Korea’s, a social breach such as this, however unintentional, can leave a damaging, lasting, and — to Americans — overzealous impression, and that is bad news for the Orioles.
But there is even a bigger issue here, that of the differing expectations and standards in the international market for talent. Because while the KBO complains about MLB teams snatching away talent from the amateur levels, the Puerto Rican baseball community has begun to complain about the opposite issue.
Read the rest of this entry »
Positional Differences in the Price of WAR
This week, I’ve talked about the retrospective price of WAR on an aggregate level. What I haven’t studied is the retrospective price of WAR by position. I thought this was particularly important in light of my finding that positional adjustments didn’t matter much for arbitration salaries. Players who played tougher defensive positions were underpaid in arbitration, relative to those who played easier defensive positions. As it turns out, the price of WAR has been much more expensive for some positions.
Terry Doyle: Rule 5 Twin
Being selected by the Twins in the Rule 5 draft means more for Terry Doyle than an opportunity to make a big-league roster. It also improves the 26-year-old right-hander’s financial situation, which has been anything but rosy. Not only has he been augmenting his modest minor-league salary by substitute teaching in the off-season, five years ago he made a decision that cost him close to $20,000.
A math major at Boston College, Doyle was drafted in the 21st round by the Dodgers, in 2007. Despite an inconsistent junior year, he asked for more than slot, which at the time was approximately $20,000. The Dodgers declined, and Doyle returned to school with hopes of improving his draft status and receiving a similar bonus as a senior sign. Instead, he ended up settling for $1,000 after the White Sox took him in the 37th round.
Thanks to an impressive 2011 season, Doyle is about to recoup that lost money, and more. Just how much he earns will depend on whether he breaks camp with the Twins or is returned to the White Sox, but simply being on a 40-man roster means a larger paycheck.
What else does it mean, and how did the math-whiz-turned-Rule-5-selection earn himself this opportunity? Those questions were answered by Doyle, his agent, and a scout for a major-league team.
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RULE 5 RAMIFICATIONS:
Doyle: “Everybody’s goal in the minor leagues is to get to the big leagues and the Rule 5 is just another opportunity to do that. The difference that it makes financially is what’s big. It’s night and day. The average minor leaguer probably makes about $1,500 a month, whereas the big-league minimum is about $480,000 a year. The difference there is life-changing. If you’re on the 40-man — which you go on when you get taken in the Rule 5 — even if you’re in the minor leagues you get about $40,000 a year, which is a significant pay raise. Of course, if I go back to the White Sox, I won’t be on a 40-man anymore.” Read the rest of this entry »