Episode 147
In this episode, both host and guest Dayn Perry attempt a “reading” of the recent Ryan Braun press conference as if it were a text — a technique borrowed from the discipline known as Cultural Studies. And, as will someday happen to the hearts of everyone reading this, they (i.e. host and Dayn Perry) fail completely. Also discussed: Al Hrabosky, gangs.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

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Audio after the jump. (Approximately 37 min. play time.)

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The eldest of the flying Molina trio, Bengie Molina officially hung up his cleats Monday, though technically they hadn’t been used in well over a year. And while the news of his retirement flew under the radar a bit — perhaps due to not playing in over a year, and perhaps because it was overshadowed by Yadi’s extension — today we’ll try provide an adequate appreciation for just how good he was over his 13-year career. Read the rest of this entry »

It has been a bad spring training for Sizemores. Besides Grady’s seemingly annual injury, Athletics’ third baseman Scott Sizemore fell to an ACL tear earlier yesterday and will be lost for the entire season. For as deep as the Athletics have made their outfield this winter, their infield is paper-thin. It becomes obvious as manager Bob Melvin attempts to sell his team’s depth on the left side of the diamond:

“In his absence, we feel we have some viable options in Adam Rosales, Eric Sogard and Josh Donaldson. They can all bring something to the position,” Melvin said.

Donaldson is a catcher prospect with a .795 OPS in two seasons at Triple-A. Rosales has a .281 career wOBA and is coming off a broken foot in 2011. Eric Sogard has played 25 professional games at the position and brings a similar minor league track record to Donaldson. Although the A’s could just slog their way to a third or fourth place finish with these three players, chances are they will at least take a gander outside of the organization to fill the void left by Sizemore’s injury.

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The Tampa Bay Rays organization has separated itself well from the mentality that once saw the organization make some interesting choices during the original expansion draft of 1997 and then make a big slash in the free agent pool with the likes of Fred McGriff, Wade Boggs, and Roberto Hernandez (and later Jose Canseco). That approach – an immediate win-now mentality – crashed and burned very quickly with no organizational depth to fill in the big league gaps. The club has spent the last few years developing in-house – and high-ceiling – talent with the likes of David Price, Jeremy Hellickson, and Evan Longoria. This is the recipe for success for a club that cannot afford to battle the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox for the highest payroll in the American League East division. The organization enjoyed a plethora of picks before the third round of the 2011 draft and, while they picked some very intriguing prospects, I would still describe the haul as more quantity over quality. A number of over-drafts were made within the selections to keep the budget reasonable for the small-market-minded team.

1. Matt Moore, LHP
BORN: June 18, 1989
EXPERIENCE: 5 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2007 8th round, New Mexico HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 2nd

Moore enters the 2012 season with perhaps as much hype as any other rookie hurler in the last five to 10 years, save for a fella named Stephen Strasburg of Washington. The lefty has a chance to be as good or better as fellow-home-grown-southpaw David Price, although he was acquired out of the college ranks and selected first overall in 2007. Moore, an eighth rounder from that very same draft, is a much better story in terms of the organization’s player development. He has a chance to be as good or better than some of the other prep arms nabbed in the first round of that draft including: Jarrod Parker (Arizona, now with Oakland), Madison Bumgarner (San Francisco), Phillippe Aumont (Seattle, now with Philly), Blake Beavan (Texas, now with Seattle), Chris Withrow (Los Angeles NL), Tim Alderson (San Francisco, now with Pittsburgh), Michael Main (Texas, now with San Francisco), and Rick Porcello (Detroit). Signed for $115,000, Moore is head and shoulders above anyone else taken in the eighth round; the next best prospect selected in that round would be a toss up between Trevor Reckling (Los Angeles AL) or Jay Voss (Florida, now Detroit). Moore’s repertoire features three potentially plus pitches in a 91-97 mph fastball, nasty curveball and solid changeup. He has all the makings of a No. 1 starter who should eat up tons of innings with a solid frame and worry-free mechanics. The Rays club could feature a killer starting rotation in ’12 with the likes of David Price, James Shields, Moore, Jeremy Hellickson, and either Wade Davis or Jeff Niemann.

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Tom McNamara is playing a major role in the Mariners’ rebuilding efforts. Seattle’s scouting director for each of the past three drafts, McNamara added a franchise cornerstone when he took Dustin Ackley with the second-overall pick in 2009. A year later, he selected a raw high school right-hander named Taijuan Walker — now the team’s top-prospect — 43rd overall. Last June, he boldly nabbed left-hander Danny Hultzen with the second pick of a draft considered to have been one of the deepest in years.

McNamara talked about his scouting philosophy — including what he has learned working under Jack Zduriencik — and the decisions to take Walker and Hultzen.

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On scouting Hultzen: “About two weeks before the draft we set up our board. We’re running around, seeing players all spring, and then we get into that room and start ranking the players. I keep it simple. We take the best guy and Dan fit that bill for us.

“I saw Dan pitch in high school, so we had a history with him. We saw him all three years in college and he improved each year. He was a Friday-night guy at Virginia, in a good conference, and [last year] I got to see him four times against pitchers who went in the first three rounds. We’d had our eyes on him all spring and wanted to make sure we saw him as much as we could.”

On Zduriencik‘s role in the draft: Read the rest of this entry »

The 2012 Steamer Projections are now available on FanGraphs courtesy of steamerprojections.com. Massive thanks to Jared Cross, Dash Davidson, and Peter Rosenbloom for putting these together and letting us display them on FanGraphs.

The Steamer projections did quite well in last year’s Forecaster Challenge.

All the usual bells and whistles apply, including FanGraphs+ integration on the projection pages, integrated 5×5 ADP rankings, projections on the player pages, and active roster team filtering.

We are only displaying players that have more than zero plate appearances or innings pitched. AVG/OBP/SLG for batters and ERA for pitchers are projected for additional players in the downloadable spreadsheets.

We’re just over two weeks away from the first annual SABR Analytics Conference, and it is shaping up to be a pretty fantastic event. The last time we talked about it, only a few speakers had been publicly announced, but the guys over there have been steadily announcing more and more great additions, and now the full agenda is out for all to see. Some of the daily highlights include:

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Ack.

With the beginning of Spring Training comes actual reports of actual baseball players. Today’s edition of Daily Notes looks at five injury situations from the earliest days of spring camps.

Tampa Bay’s Moore Has Slight Abdominal Situation
Rays left-hander Matt Moore missed his scheduled batting practice session on Monday due to a mild lower abdominal strain, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Apparently — again, per Topkin — the strain become evident on Friday, while Moore was throwing a bullpen. Moore, as FanGraphs readers likely already know, has been among the top three players on basically every top-whatever prospect list and also signed a decidedly team-friendly contract this offseason. Moore struck out 15 of the 40 (37.5%) major-league batters he faced following a late-season promotion last year.

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Yadier Molina is one of my favorite players in the sport. His combination of elite defensive skills and developing offense gives him a real argument to be considered the best catcher in the sport, and he’s one of the main reasons the Cardinals have been a contending team since he took over as their regular catcher in 2005. And, beyond just his on field value, Molina is remarkably entertaining to watch, as his footwork and arm strength allow him to do things that most catchers can’t even dream of.

However, as much as I love Molina, I figured his contract extension talks with the Cardinals would end with him re-signing for something like $40 million over four years with some sort of vesting option at the end of the deal. Instead, he’s reportedly agreed to a five year contract with St. Louis worth between $70 and $75 million, per Ken Rosenthal, which would be the third richest deal for a catcher in the history of the game – only Joe Mauer ($184 million) and Mike Piazza ($91 million) made more in a single contract. Given the enormous gap between what I thought Molina would sign for and what he actually got from St. Louis, my initial reaction is that this was an overpay by the Cardinals. Even as good as Molina’s defense is – and as limited as our abilities are to accurately value catcher defense right now – they’re still signing up for the age 30-34 seasons of a catcher who has carried a pretty heavy workload up to this point in his career. At $14 million per year, Molina is going to have to remain one of the game’s best catchers in order to justify the salary. What are the odds that he’ll still be an elite player in 2017?

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Brett Myers is headed back to the closer’s role in Houston. He should be a decent closer. But why, from a team standpoint, would the building Astros shift a capable 200-inning resource into a 70-inning role?

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