Calculations!

Every year, some players start hot, others start cold. In the past, when a player had a high BABIP to start the season, we said, “Oh, well he’s lucky. His numbers will come down.” But now we can say with greater certainty, using Fielding Independent wOBA (or FI wOBA), what a player’s wOBA would actually regress to, given their performance in other areas.

Let’s look at the top five BABIPs in the league with FI wOBA regressed to career BABIP rates (or CaB-FIw for Career BABIP FI wOBA).

David Wright: .536 BABIP, .503 wOBA, .424 CaB-FIw

Even if/when Wright’s BABIP comes back to his career .342 BABIP, his peripherals are off the charts. He is on pace for 30 homers, which is nothing miraculous for Wright, but he is also walking and striking out at a 12.5% rate.

Will that kind of patience continue? Eh, probably not to that extreme, but it certainly means Wright is seeing the ball well right now and could be poised for a really good year.

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Last night, in the eleventh inning of a scoreless, priceless piece of pitching between the Giants and Phillies, Brandon Belt came to the plate with one out. The situation was surprising. Here was the left-handed Opening Day first baseman, then platoon caddy backup first baseman, then bench piece — coming in against a left-handed reliever with the game on the line.

The results turned out well for the Baby Giraffe and the Giants — his single started the game-winning rally — but the moment itself brought to mind all the anti-Belt arguments that have been thrown the first baseman’s way over the past two seasons.

In some ways, these reasons given for his lack of playing time represent straw men. We weren’t in the front office, or the dugout, or next to the batting cage, when they were proffered by his coaching staff or front office suit. Each of those arguments was relevant in that eleventh-inning at-bat, however. Unraveling the twine that holds them together seems to produce even more straw men, but the overall picture becomes clear as each single argument gets cloudier.

Is there really any good reason to keep Brandon Belt from regular playing time?

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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Brief Previews for Select Games
2. Unhelpful Video: Cleveland Hits Four Home Runs
3. Crowdsourcing Broadcasters: Colorado Radio

Brief Previews for Select Games
Here are brief previews for four of today’s games — each including the preferred television feed of FanGraphs readers, per the results of our offseason crowdsourcing project. (Information on probable pitchers from MLB.com.)

Chicago NL at Miami | 12:40 ET
Right-hander Jeff Samardzija makes his third start of the season for Chicago. Despite allowing five runs against St. Louis on Friday, his defense-independent numbers were still very good. Line: 5.0 IP, 26 TBF, 5 K, 1 BB, 8 GB on 20 batted-balls (40.0% GB), 2.90 xFIP… Ricky Nolasco (13.0 IP, 104 xFIP-) starts for Miami… Item: Giancarlo Stanton’s name is officially Giancarlo Stanton now on that player’s FanGraphs page.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Chicago NL.

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Josh Beckett hasn’t looked the same this season. After an off-season as public enemy No. 1 to Red Sox fans, Beckett could have benefited from a strong start this year. Unfortunately for the 31-year-old, he had a disastrous season debut — one in which he allowed five home runs in just 4.2 innings.

Since then, though, Beckett has been pretty effective. While it’s tough to draw conclusions from small samples, Beckett might be using a new approach on the mound. And if his past two starts are any indication, that approach is working.

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Nick Ahmed, SS, Atlanta Braves
Current Level: A+
2012 Top 15 Prospects Ranking: NR
Current Value: Monitor closely

Atlanta targeted Ahmed with its second round draft pick in 2011 with the hope that he could move quickly through the system in need of middle infield depth. The shortstop is not flashy in the field but he’s steady, makes all the plays and has a strong arm. At the plate, he’s more if a No. 2 hitter with good barrel control and the ability to play small ball. He’s shown his ability to get on base early in 2012 by walking eight times in his first 11 games. He’s struck out just three times. Ahmed also possesses good speed and has stolen six bases in as many tries. He’s definitely worth keeping an eye on even if he’s currently stuck behind Tyler Pastornicky and Andrelton Simmons on the shortstop depth chart.

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Episode 167
In a departure from his usual weekly appearances, veteran baseball writer and freedom-loving patriot Dayn Perry spends the greater part of this episode of FanGraphs Audio answering questions from the public. The results will shock and amaze!

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 49 min. play time.)

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Forgoing free agency is the new hotness. After already locking up his double play partner Howie Kendrick back in January, the Angels gave Erick Aybar a reported four year, $35 million contract extension today. Aybar is under contract for 2012 at just over $5 million, so this represents a pretty nice raise in annual average value, and assuming that the contract covers 2013-2016, it will keep Aybar in Anaheim through his age 32 season.

This also represents a pretty significant commitment from the Angels towards a player whose skills aren’t generally valued all that highly on the open market. While Aybar has averaged +3.2 WAR per season over the last three years, most of that value has come from his defense and baserunning abilities, as he’s hit just .280/.327/.391. Those aren’t terrible offensive numbers from a shortstop, but they came during his expected peak years and put him in the same category as guys like Jimmy Rollins, Stephen Drew, Jhonny Peralta, J.J. Hardy, and Cliff Pennington. There’s nothing wrong with any of these guys, but this class of ballplayer has traditionally not struck it rich in free agency.

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Jamie Moyer made major league history Tuesday night in Colorado, becoming the oldest pitcher to record a win, at age 49. I’d also be willing to bet Moyer made history in another fashion: as the first non-knuckleball pitcher to record a win without cracking 80 MPH on the gun. Regardless of if my bet would pay, Moyer’s accomplishment is made all the more impressive by the low numbers flashing on the gun.

How did he do it? As any good pitching coach at any level teaches their pupils: change speeds. Moyer had his changeup working magically Tuesday night, as he drew nine total outs with the pitch — two double plays, two other groundouts, and three flyouts.

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After Tuesday night’s games, the Washington Nationals sit atop the National League East with a record of 9-3.  Much of the team’s early success is due to outstanding pitching from both starters and relievers, who have limited opponents to 30 runs in twelve games. Only the Rangers have allowed fewer runs so far, albeit in eleven games. The Phillies have given up 33 runs.

But as good as the Nationals’ pitching has been, the Nationals have distanced themselves from Philadelphia so far with better offense: 46 runs scored for the Nationals to only 35 runs scored for the Phillies. And it’s veteran first baseman Adam LaRoche who is powering the Nats offense so far.

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While velocity isn’t everything when it comes to being a successful major league starting pitcher, it’s surely a large part of the story. Starting pitchers who have a higher velocity — particularly on their four-seam fastballs — tend to have higher strikeout rates and induce weaker contact from opposing batters. And pitchers who can limit balls in play through strikeouts, tend to have lower earned run averages. Of course, not every major-league starter can sport a blazing fastball. A number of starting pitchers have not only survived, but they’ve thrived during seasons where their velocity was significantly lower than league-average.

Which brings us to the case of Oakland Athletics left-hander, Tom Milone. After starting five games as a 24-year-old for the Nationals last season, Milone was shipped out as part of the deal that sent Oakland’s Gio Gonzalez to Washington. Milone, now 25, has worked his way into the Athletics’ rotation this season — this despite an underwhelming fastball. Generally, Milone’s four-seam fastball (a pitch he throws about 54% of the time) has averaged less than 88 mph. For some perspective: In the past three seasons, major-league starters have averaged 91 mph on the four-seamer.

What are the odds that Milone can perform above league average this season, given the lack of zip on his fastball? To answer this, I looked at some similar pitchers who have played during the Pitch FX era (2007-present). Read the rest of this entry »