Archive for April, 2012

How to Worry About the Royals

The past weekend did not go well for the Kansas City Royals. They were not only swept during their opening series at home by division rival Cleveland, but the sweep was pretty humiliating. Although the Royals at least managed to make a game of it (including the obligatory Yunibomb) on Saturday, all three games exposed Kansas City’s starting pitching. The Royals do not get any respite — they welcome American League Central favorite Detroit to town today. If they thought Cleveland made mincemeat of their starters…

Some fans may be ready to jump off of the 2012 “Our Time” bandwagon. That is understandable (and we are all fans, so I will not pretend I am not subject to the same emotions), but to be “worried” about the Royals in the aftermath of this weekend’s sweep might sort of miss the point. If one wants to worry about the Royals, point that fretful energy in the right direction.

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Attention Dale Scott: Hands Up Means Foul Ball

Yesterday, the Dodgers and Padres played for the seventh time on the season. Just like they had done in five of the first six match-ups, the Dodgers ended up victorious. However, unlike the previous games, they got some significant assistance in coming out on top. Here’s the Win Expectancy graph of yesterday’s SD/LA match-up:


Source: FanGraphs

You’ll immediately notice a giant spike in the Dodgers’ Win Expectancy in the ninth inning, as they went from having just a 30.1% chance of winning to a 62.2% chance of winning on one play. This is how that play is described in the play log:

Jesus Guzman hit into a triple play to catcher (Grounder). Yonder Alonso out at third. Chase Headley out at second.

And this is what that play actually looked like:

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 4/16/12


MLB Draft: Top Collegiate Performers

Baseball has now returned for slightly over a week. Early storylines abound — such as Matt Kemp and the Dodgers starting the season 9-1 and the Los Angeles Angels struggling out of the gate — but as the next three or four weeks come to pass, more and more attention will shift to the MLB Draft.

Will the Houston Astros take prep outfielder Byron Buxton number one overall, or will they go the collegiate route and select right-hander Mark Appel? How far will right-hander Lucas Giolito fall after his spring injury? Which player does your favorite team covet in the first round?

All of those questions lack clear answers at this point. However, collegiate games are being played around the country, and the more high-profile players continue to take center stage amongst scouts and baseball fans alike.

Here are how some of the top draft-eligible collegiate players are performing this spring:

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Daily Notes: Lincecum Grano Salis

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Brief Previews for Select Games
2. Lightly Annotated Video: Strasburg’s April 11th Start
3. Crowdsourcing Broadcasters: Kansas City Radio

Brief Previews for Select Games
Here are brief previews for five of today’s games — each including the preferred television feed of FanGraphs readers, per the results of our offseason crowdsourcing project. (Information on probable pitchers from MLB.com.)

Tampa Bay at Boston | 11:05 ET
Today is Patriots’ Day in Massachusetts (and Maine and, for some reason, Wisconsin) — a commemoration of the Battles of Lexington and Concord, according both to Wikipedia and almost definitely Mrs. White, my second and third grade teacher at Dame School. It’s also the day of the 116th Boston Marathon, the world’s longest-running marathon… Daniel Bard makes his second career start. Here’s the line from his first, at Toronto (box): 5.0 IP, 24 TBF, 6 K, 1 BB, 11 GB on 17 batted-balls (64.7%) — good for a single-game xFIP of 1.90. Fenway’s excellent center-field camera angle will provide an opportunity to observe Bard’s repertoire as a starter… James Shields starts for Tampa Bay.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Boston.

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FanGraphs Audio: Handsome Italian Bill Petti

Episode 165
FanGraphs readers will know today’s guest both/either from (a) the pages of FanGraphs and Beyond the Box Score and/or (b) his regular appearances on MLB Network’s Clubhouse Confidential with host Brian Kenny. In either case, he’s handsome Italian gentleman Bill Petti. Topics discussed: the Mets, Petti’s academic training in political science, the Mets, Petti’s baseball-oriented research, and the Mets.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 59 min. play time.)

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Kuroda Dominates Angels In Yankee Stadium Debut

If the Yankees and their fans had second thoughts about Hiroki Kuroda following his shaky first start against the Rays last week, the Japanese righty may have put them to bed Friday afternoon. The 37-year-old righty dominated the Angels for eight innings in his Yankee Stadium debut, allowing just five hits, two walks, and not a single run. If not for a Bobby Abreu infield single to lead off the ninth, Kuroda may have been able to complete the shutout; instead, at 109 pitches, Joe Girardi opted to let David Robertson finish the job.

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Willie Bloomquist, Leadoff Hitter

Willie Bloomquist has been playing baseball for a long time. This will be his 10th full year in the Majors, and in the previous nine, he has never been even an average hitter. Despite this, Bloomquist has started the season as the D-backs’ leadoff hitter, a role he filled nearly half of the time last season. He has started the season hot, but history tells us that will not last, and when he reverts back to form, the D-backs may have trouble scoring runs.

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FanGraphs Prospect Stock Market: Part 2

Thursday night saw a number of strong pitching performances erupt throughout the minor leagues.

Cody Buckel, RHP, Texas Rangers
Current Level: A+
2012 Top 15 Prospects Ranking: 15th
Current Value: Holding Steady

Buckel, still just 19, is enjoying his time in the high-A Carolina League. He gave up just two hits and no walks in 6.0 innings last night. He’s now given up four hits and three walks in his first 10 innings of work. That goes along with 16 strikeouts and a high rate of ground-ball outs. Buckel doesn’t have the most dynamic stuff but if he continues to show good command and control of his repertoire he could develop into a solid No. 3 starter at the big league level.

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Johnny Damon: “Hello, Cleveland!”

It took a while, but Johnny Damon found his third new home in three years. Damon has reportedly accepted a deal with Cleveland that will give him a prorated $1.25 million base salary with another $1.4 million in incentives. The money is not that significant, relatively speaking, particularly given that Cleveland is trying to contend this season. The main issue is whether Damon can really anything to the team.

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