In 2011, Mat Latos emerged from April with an 0-4 record and an earned run average near five. Even though he’s wearing a different uniform, things must be feeling eerily familiar right now.

After three starts, Latos finds himself winless with his new team and currently possesses an unseemly 8.22 ERA and 1.89 WHIP. Yes, the ERA predictors suggest Latos hasn’t been quite this bad and no, he hasn’t had much in the way of good luck on batted balls. But his command has been off, his repertoire has seemingly changed, and and after his last effort versus the St. Louis Cardinals, giving up eight earned runs over 5.2 innings pitched, there were some serious concerns in Cincinnati about their prize off season acquisition.

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According to the raw neutrality of the win probability chart, the Seattle Mariners actually had a chance to win the game last Saturday:

Source: FanGraphs

But it did not know — nor did the players know — what day it was. A.J. Pierzynski did not realize the significance of that first pitch, sailing wide to his glove side. Philip Humber may have even felt a twinge of frustration as that first toss missed so poorly. And Paul Konerko had no way of knowing what he started when he took that first grounder and tossed it to Humber for out number one.

They were all witness to and participants of a rare and wild event.
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With Tim Hudson set to return from the disabled list next week, the Braves have opted to send down Jair Jurrjens, who made last year’s NL All-Star team, rather than prospect Randall Delgado.

Despite Jurrjens’s history as a solid starter, this seems like the right decision. The biggest reason for not wanting to send Jurrjens down at this point was to potentially hold onto some semblance of his trade value. The Braves were actively shopping him this winter, but the knee injury which forced him to miss much of the second half made other teams wary. There were talks of Jurrjens being shipped to Baltimore in a package that included Martin Prado for Adam Jones. The Braves thought it to be too steep a price and avoided the deal.

Now, the Braves are left with a $5.5 million pitcher in triple-A who is more-or-less completely immovable. It is easy to see why, despite the price and destruction of his trade value, that Jurrjens needed to be sent down. His current strikeout-to-walk ratio is 0.80, and while his career mark of 1.94 is certainly not the most impressive part of his game, having more walks than strikeouts is a rather large issue.

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The Kansas City Royals have lost 11 consecutive games, and at 3-13, they have the worst record in baseball. Even their most ardent supporters are walking away. Whatever optimism their farm system had generated before the season began has been washed away in a sea of losses, and now, the Royals just look like the same old last place team they’ve always been.

That’s the story if you just look at wins and losses, anyway. If you look a little deeper and ask why the Royals are currently 3-13, though, the story becomes a lot more interesting.

At the plate, the Royals are averaging just 3.56 runs per game – AL average is 4.47 – third worst in the American League. They are just 0.03 runs per game better than the vaunted Mariners offense. So, the offense has been a problem, right? Well, sort of, but not in the way you might think. The Royals overall line on the season is .255/.315/.413, good for a .316 wOBA. The average AL team is hitting .253/.320/.412 with a .320 wOBA, so overall, KC has been just slightly below average at the plate in their first 16 games. So, how does a team with an average batting line score nearly a run less per game than expected?

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In the top of the fifth of what became an extra-inning win last Friday night, the Giants were ahead a run. Barry Zito was 100 pitches in and had been lucky to escape the top of the fifth with one run after he allowed two singles, a walk and a home run. Manager Bruce Bochy therefore sent the team’s best available right-handed hitter to the plate to pinch hit for his starter.

Matt Cain.

In the top of the ninth inning of what became a walk-off loss last Saturday night, the Giants needed any run they could get. Once Terry Collins put the Mets’ best left-hander on the mound, Tim Byrdak, lefty Brandon Crawford didn’t perhaps provide the Giants with their best chance. Bruce Bochy sent one of his two remaining right-handed hitters to the plate — backup catcher Hector Sanchez. The Giants ended up tying the game, and needed a middle infielder with Crawford out. With Manny Burriss already in the game, Bruce Bochy moved Burriss to shortstop and put his best remaining option at second base.

Aubrey Huff.

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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Item: More Power Rankings of Power
2. Brief Previews of Select Games
3. Crowdsourcing Broadcasters: Cincinnati Radio

Item: More Power Rankings of Power
On Monday, SI.com published the second iteration of its weekly MLB power rankings for 2012. As noted last week (and on Monday’s podcast), the SI power rankings are now arranged by expected winning percentage per FanGraphs WAR.

Here are your top five teams by that criteria (with WAR winning percentage in parentheses):

1. Texas (.838)
2. St. Louis (.782)
3. New York AL (.698)
4. Atlanta (.620)
5. Los Angeles NL (.601)

And bottom five teams:

26. Cincinnati (.382)
27. Minnesota (.370)
28. Chicago NL (.363)
29. Seattle (.351)
30. Pittsburgh (.331)

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There has been a lot of speculation whether David Wright will remain a New York Met. While the club still has a $16 million option on the 29-year-old third baseman for next season, Wright has been mentioned as a contract-extension candidate.

Whether he stays with the Mets — or he’s dealt to another team — it seems likely Wright would be locked up before hitting the free-agent market. Assuming that’s the case, he should  be in for a large payday. Wright, however, could be looking for an extension in the $100 million range. And though Wright has been stellar throughout his career, $100 million is far from a guarantee.

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Episode 170
Managing editor Dave Cameron makes his weekly appearance on FanGraphs Audio. Topics discussed: Philip Humber’s success, and Don Cooper’s role in it; the SI.com Power Rankings (fueled by FanGraphs WAR), the benefits and limitations of such an exercise; and the new site feature called FanGraphs Guts! and what it tells us about the majors’ current scoring levels.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 30 min. play time.)

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After the Red Sox September collapse last season, everyone on Yawkey Way was looking for a fresh start to the season. But between injuries to Andrew Bailey, Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury, the Kevin Youkilis commitment drama, the seeming indecision over what to do with Daniel Bard, and oh, the continuing and humiliating implosion of the Boston bullpen, the start to the season has been anything but fresh. Still, the team is showing little outward panic, as they are trying to weather the storm with low-key moves.

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