Archive for May, 2012

Is Tulo Unclutch on Defense, Too?

In Wednesday’s game between the Dodgers and Rockies, Colorado led 2-1 heading into the 8th inning. The Dodgers scored two in the top of the 8th, the Rockies answered with three in the bottom of the inning, and the game went to the 9th with the Rockies up 5-to-3. L.A. had runners on first and second, with two outs, and Dee Gordon at the plate. On a 2-2 pitch, Gordon hit one into the gap in right center field. Rockies right fielder Michael Cuddyer fielded the ball and threw it to cut-off man Troy Tulowitzki, who then made a weak and off-line throw home. Both runners scored and the game was tied.

After the play, I remarked on Twitter how surprised I was by the weak throw home from Tulowitzki. Yes, Tulowitzki’s made six errors so far in 2012, matching his season total from 2011. But the two-time Gold Glover has tremendous range and a very strong arm. He caught the ball cleanly and with plenty of time to get off a good throw, but didn’t. Here’s the video of the play.

Immediately, several Rockies fans and bloggers responded to me on Twitter with “whether on offense or defense, Tulo freezes up in the clutch” or words to that effect. Those comments surprised me more than Tulowitzki’s poor play. To the FanGraphs leader board and, behold, Tulowitzki has been the least clutch hitter in baseball over the last three seasons. My colleague Paul Swydan wrote about Tulowitzki’s clutch problem last August, but noted that Tulo was moving in the right direction, improving his hitting in high-leverage situations. So far this season, however, he’s heading in the wrong direction, with a -.10 clutch rating, ranking him 112th out of 184 qualified batters. Of course, clutch ratings will have big swings at this point in the season, with fewer high-leverage plate appearances per player. Just a look at Matt Kemp’s -.12 clutch rating so far tells you it’s too early to form a judgment.

But what about Tulowitzki’s defense? Does his glove freeze up in the clutch, too? We don’t have a clutch rating for defense, so firing up the leader board will do us no good.

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Pablo Sandoval Headed for the Disabled List

Led by Buster Posey and Pablo Sandoval, the San Francisco Giants offense has actually been decent this year. Their 95 wRC+ ranks them 8th in the National League, thanks in large part to the contributions of Buster Posey (.342/.400/.575) and Pablo Sandoval (.316/.375/.537). Melky Cabrera has been good, and the team has gotten production from the Brandon Belt/Brett Pill platoon when they’ve played, but the offense has been driven by the consistent thumping of Posey and Sandoval.

Their depth is about to be tested, however, as Hank Schulman is reporting that Sandoval has a broken hamate bone in his wrist. He had this same issue last year – only this year, it’s the other hand – and he missed 41 games over six weeks while recovering from the injury.

The effects of the injury seemed to linger even after he returned, however. Here are his monthly wRC+ splits from last year:

April: 147
May: DL
June: 77
July: 149
August: 124
September: 209

Hand and wrist injuries are notorious power sappers, and Sandoval had just five extra base hits in 70 plate appearances in June. His power returned in the second half, and he was one of the best hitters in baseball down the stretch, so this shouldn’t derail him for the whole season, but if last year is any indicator of how the injury will affect him, this will likely be a problem for him until the All-Star break.

So, for the next couple of months, the Giants are going to have to get their offense elsewhere. Conor Gillaspie is expected to be recalled to take his place on the roster, but the Giants might need to look outside the organization for additional help. Perhaps the logical place to look would be for a player who can play both third base and shortstop, giving them the flexibility of replacing Brandon Crawford with the new acquisition once Sandoval returns. I wouldn’t be surprised if Ned Colletti was already on the phone offering Juan Uribe back to the Giants…


Matt Klaassen FanGraphs Chat – 5/3/12


Trevor Bauer’s Flashes of Brilliance

From the moment Trevor Bauer’s name was announced as the third overall pick in the 2011 draft, the pitcher with my favorite twitter handle (@BauerOutage) has been in the conversation for best pitching prospect in all of baseball. Against Chattanooga, the former UCLA ace (sorry Gerrit Cole) carved up double-A hitters at times, but struggled to command a fastball up in the zone, leading to mixed results in the stat column.

Video after the jump.

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MLB Instant Replay: I Luv U, Do You Luv Me?

Yesterday, it took Los Angeles Dodgers manager Clint Hurdle Don Mattingly* approximately 40 seconds — depending on where you start and stop your timer — to argue The Worst Call of the Season. Meanwhile, in St. Louis, it took the umpiring crew about 2 minutes and 50 seconds to gather in the infield, discuss Carlos Beltran’s hit, reconvene in their underground video review chamber, and then return to announce a home run.

* All white guys look the same to me.

Getting the calls wrong in baseball takes time. Managers — depending on their personality, the game situation, and the offense — take different amounts of time arguing both bad and good calls. The arguing, for the most part, exists because of uncertainty. My lip-reading skills inform me most arguments follow this general pattern:

Manager: “Did you really see X event?”

Umpire: “Most certainly did I see X event.”

Manager: “That statement you just made right there is tantamount to the excrement of bovines.”

Umpire: “You are ejected.”

Recent evidence suggests, however, that despite these conflicts resulting from close calls, instant replays still take more time than good ol’ fashioned shout-spittin’ matches.

Evidence furthermore suggests that in the time it takes to get in a healthy workout, a normal person could empty approximately ten Squeeze Cheese cans directly into his or her porcine gullet.

Which is to say: Quicker is not always better.

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Daily Notes, With No Little Attention to Ross Detwiler

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Featured Game: Arizona at Washington, 19:05 ET
2. Other Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule
4. Crowdsourcing Broadcasters: Atlanta Radio

Featured Game: Arizona at Washington, 19:05 ET
Regarding a Question the Reader Might’ve Asked
A question the reader might’ve asked aloud regarding Ross Detwiler — who starts tonight for Washington — is, “What’ve you done with Ross Detwiler, Ross Detwiler?”

Regarding Why the Reader Might’ve Asked That
For comic effect, probably.

Regarding Why the Reader Might’ve Also Asked That
The reader might’ve also asked that question, on account of this is the line Detwiler has posted through four starts: 22.0 IP, 21.8% K, 6.9% BB, 66.1% GB, 2.93 SIERA, 82 xFIP-, 0.4 WAR.

Regarding How Those Numbers Compare to Detwiler’s Career Numbers
They represent a considerable improvement — to the point where one is forced to italicize the word considerable for appropriate effect.

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FanGraphs Prospect Stock Watch

Charlie Culberson, IF, San Francisco Giants:
Current Level: AAA
2012 Top 15 Prospects Ranking: NR
Current Value: Leveling Off

After making 75 errors playing on the left side of the infield between 2008-09, Culberson has found more consistency on the right side of the field at the keystone. In truth his offensive profile fits better at second base too and he’s shown some nice gap power. Unfortunately he has an overly aggressive approach which hindered him at double-A in 2011 and his wOBA sat at just .303. Moved up aggressively to triple-A this season the 23-year-old infielder has walked just four times in 26 games. He also has 21 strikeouts and whiffs too much for a player with modest home run power. With experience at three infield positions Culberson’s future big league role will probably come as a utility player and the organization with have to look elsewhere for its second baseman of the future.

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The Brewers Will Struggle to Replace Mat Gamel

The Milwaukee Brewers will have to find another option to replace Prince Fielder. When the slugging first baseman left the team this off-season, it looked like Mat Gamel was going to get an opportunity to prove himself in the majors. At 26-years-old, this was a make or break year for Gamel — an opportunity to finally show that he was a major league hitter. But Gamel’s breakout will have to wait, as the first baseman suffered a torn ACL in his right knee. Gamel is expected to miss the remainder of the season due to the injury. Although Gamel was far from a sure thing, the Brewers entered the season without any viable backups.

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The Day In Pictures

This afternoon, Tim Welke gave us this.

This evening, the Braves and Phillies gave us this.


Source: FanGraphs

Then, in the wee hours of the night, Jered Weaver gave us this.

Thank you, baseball. You’re the best.


FanGraphs Audio: Dayn Perry in the Morning

Episode 175
CBS Sports’ Eye on Baseball contributor and author of two books (one of them decent) Dayn Perry makes his weekly appearance on this morning edition of FanGraphs Audio. Owing, however, to the ill health of the host — who is also tasked with writing these dumb capsule previews — the actual “content” of said episode remains decidedly foggy.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 42 min. play time.)

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