Last night in Atlanta, Alex Rodriguez hit the 23rd grand slam of his career, tying Lou Gehrig. Even if Nick Swisher’s two-run homer later the same inning put the Yankees on top for good and was the bigger play according to Win Probability Added (WPA), tying up the game on one swing with his team down four runs is a pretty nice feat for A-Rod, the man who still bears the stigma of being “unclutch.”

As big a hit as it was in-game, it was only the fourth most game-swinging-est grand slam of A-Rod’s career. Reaching into the WPA cookie jar once more, here are the top three grand slams of A-Rod’s regular-season career according to Win Probability Added.

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Jordan Danks, OF, Chicago White Sox
Current Level: MLB
2012 Top 15 Prospects Ranking: NR
Current Value: Static

Danks was a top amateur prospect while in high school but he told teams he would not sign because he wanted to play college ball at the University of Texas. John Danks‘ little brother followed through on his promise (It wasn’t the usual negotiation ploy) and he had a solid but unspectacular college career. After being drafted by the White Sox, Danks also had what can be best described as a decent minor league career but he struggled with strikeouts and a low batting average. The 25-year-old outfielder is a plus defender and a very good athlete but, despite his solid 2012 numbers in triple-A, his overall ceiling is limited to that of a fourth outfielder. He should still carve out a respectable career but Baseball America once ranked him as the 37th best draft prospect in 2005, ahead of the likes of Austin Jackson, Chase Headley, Matt Garza, Jeremy Hellickson, and Tim Lincecum.

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The month of June has been very kind to Josh Johnson. In 14.2 innings, the big right-hander owns a 1.84 ERA with impressive peripheral numbers to match: 16 strikeouts, just four walks, and no home runs against two quality lineups in Atlanta and Boston. The key has been a revival off the stuff that made him a Cy Young Award contender when healthy, stuff that was missing in the first two months of his return from a shoulder injury that ended his season after just nine starts in 2011.

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This post isn’t going to be overly long, because the data mostly speaks for itself.

One of the primary traits that scouts look for in a catcher is a strong throwing arm, and catchers who can throw out opposing base stealers are often considered to be good defenders regardless of what else they do behind the plate. And, there’s no question that creating outs and intimidating runners into staying put is a useful skill, and a catcher who can shut down the running game can add value to his team.

However, this year’s Pittsburgh Pirates are proving just how small a part of overall run prevention that throwing out runners actually is. Here are the leaderboards for National League teams in opposing SB/CS:

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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Two Useful Tables Regarding First-Round Draft Signees
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Two Useful Tables Regarding First-Round Draft Signees
A Note on the Following
On Sunday, we published in these electronic pages a table of the first-round picks who’d signed so far, along with (a) the amount of each signee’s bonus, (b) MLB’s suggested bonus for each corresponding slot, and (c) probably some really well-crafted prose that improved your outlook on life.

In any case, what follows is that same table, updated to include signings that’ve occurred in the interim.

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Zack Greinke has been the most valuable National League pitcher this season, tallying 3 WAR over 13 starts. Not too far behind him is a pair of Washington Nationals starters who have each made one fewer start: Gio Gonzalez ranks second with 2.7 WAR and Stephen Strasburg comes in third with 2.6 WAR. At this point in the season the 0.3 wins separating Greinke and Gonzalez isn’t significant, nor is the more minute differential between Strasburg and his southpaw teammate.

But the fact that Gonzalez is even in the same discussion as a former Cy Young Award winner and a phenom living up to the hype bears notice. Entering the season, the 26-year old Gonzalez was considered a good pitcher, one who could easily miss bats but who struggled with control and was prone to racking up walks. He wasn’t projected to pitch at an all-star or award-worthy level, but the Nationals saw something they loved and offered, at signing, the largest-ever contract for a first-time arbitration-eligible pitcher.

His five-year, $42 million deal, which includes a $12 million club option in 2017 and a $12 million player option in 2018, stood to buy out the most effective years of what we typically consider a #2 or #3 starter. The deal offered some savings at the end if Gonzalez turned into an ace, but would still prove worthwhile if he sustained the 3-3.5 WAR performance he established over 2010-11.

If Gonzalez can sustain his current level of performance, or some semblance of it, the Nationals are going to have a legitimate second ace in the rotation and a potential #1 starter signed to a fairly modest deal throughout his prime.

Can Gonzalez keep rolling through the National League at this pace? While there are a couple of reasons to think some of his numbers will regress to the mean, there is also ample evidence to suggest he has made long-lasting improvements and isn’t simply a posterchild for switching to the easier league.

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Jordan Zimmermann and Gio Gonzalez have a few notable things in common. The Washington Nationals mound duo have outstanding stuff and rely more on pitching to their strengths than on scouting reports. Each boasts an ERA under 3.00 and is one of the best pitchers in the National League.

They also have their differences. Zimmermann is a reserved right-hander with a four-pitch mix and a relatively low strikeout rate [6.52]. Gonzalez is a fun-loving southpaw with a three-pitch mix and a high strikeout rate [11.02]. The 26-year-old Zimmermann returned to the Nationals rotation after undergoing Tommy John surgery, the 27-year-old Gonzalez arrived via an off-season trade.

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Zimmermannn on his approach: “I look at scouting reports a little bit, but I don’t like to look at them too much. I watch some video, but I don’t get too caught up in what’s in the reports.

“I’m always out there seeing how the hitter’s swing is and making adjustments during the game. I’m seeing things like where his front foot is landing. If he’s late on the fastball, I’m going to throw it again. If he’s on something, I’m probably going to mix it up and throw something else.

“What I throw has a lot to do with how I feel that day — what I feel is going to be working. On any given day, it could be a different pitch that‘s my best pitch. I’m obviously going to come after guys with my fastball, but it could be my curveball or my slider that’s my better pitch that day.”

On his curveball and his slider: “I throw a pretty hard slider. It’s 86 to 88 or 89 [mph]. It’s kind of like a small baby cutter. Read the rest of this entry »

Right-hander Ernesto Frieri is currently closing games for the Los Angeles Angels of You-Know-Where. He also currently owns a strikeout rate of 43.2%, which mark is not only over 10 percentage points above his previous high (albeit, in a short career so far), but is also the second-highest rate among all pitchers who’ve thrown at least 10 innings — behind only Aroldis Chapman (46.6%).

A curious thing is how Frieri is getting those strikeouts — which is to say, largely by way of his fastball. According to Texas Leaguers, Frieri has gotten a swing and miss on roughly 20% of the fastballs he’s thrown, while the league-average fastball has induced a whiff only about 5% or 6% of the time*. Frieri’s breaking ball, alternately classified as a slider or curve, has gotten whiffs only about 8% of the time — almost half of league average.

*Note: there are indications that Frieri might be throwing two fastballs, a four- and a two-seamer. Even if that is the case, they’re both above average and all comments made here apply to both. For the sake of ease, I’ll just use the term “fastball,” singular.

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