Archive for June, 2012

Johan Santana Rides Changeup to No-Hitter

Long after Johan Santana retires, memories of his changeup will delight fans and haunt opponents. It’s only fitting that Santana’s changeup frustrated Cardinals hitters from wire to wire in his no-hitter Friday night, dominating from the first inning to the last. Santana went to his signature pitch 38 times out of his 3 total offerings, going for 24 strikes, nine whiffs, and recording nine of his 27 outs.

It’s only fitting. Although his injuries may make a Hall of Fame bid difficult, Santana’s changeup is no doubt a hall-of-fame caliber pitch. Santana is the career leader in changeup pitch value since BIS began tracking the data in 2002 at 133.4 runs saved, and his changeup saves an average of 2.11 runs per 100 times thrown. The only pitcher who throws his changeup so often to even come close is Cole Hamels, at 2.02.

Numbers don’t to justice to this caliber of a pitch, though — let’s relive six of the best changeups on the night that made history for both Santana and the New York Mets:

Read the rest of this entry »


Daily Notes: A-ing a Rhetorical Q About Mets, Cards

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of csontents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Featured Game: St. Louis at New York NL, 16:10 ET (Free Game)
2. One Other Notable Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Featured Game: St. Louis at New York NL, 16:10 ET
A Question Someone Might Ask
A question someone might ask ahead of this game — for rhetorical purposes, say — is this: “What’s more surprising: that the Cardinals are in second place in their division, or that the Mets are in second place in theirs?”

Regarding the Intent of Such a Question
The intent of such a question likely would be to illustrate how the Cardinals’ record (27-25, 2.5 games behind the Reds) is worse than one would expect (given their run scoring and prevention so far) and how the Mets’ record (29-23, 1.0 games behind the Nationals) is better (according to the same criteria).

An Actual Possible Answer
Using each team’s respective WAR record — that is, a theoretical record based on the wins above replacement each club has amassed at the team level — it’s possible to provide something like an actual answer to that question.

Read the rest of this entry »


FanGraphs Audio: Fantasy Friday with Alan Harrison

Episode 191
Alan Harrison, a contributor to the new nightly Bullpen Report feature at RotoGraphs, is the guest on this Fantasy Friday edition of FanGraphs Audio.

Discussed:
• Relievers with tenuous holds on the closer role, in this week’s Hector Santiago Status Update.
• Other relievers, like David Robertson and Huston Street, who are currently on the DL — when they’re expected back, and in what capacity.
• Recently promoted players and their likely roles: Alex Castellanos, Yasmani Grandal, and Andrelton Simmons.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 35 min. play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »


Orioles Lose Markakis To Hand Injury

A huge part of the Baltimore Orioles unforeseen success this season has been keeping their best players healthy: J.J. Hardy, Adam Jones, Matt Wieters and Nick Markakis have all played in at least 46 games. The Orioles found out Thursday this trend will not continue through June. Markakis has been diagnosed with a broken hamate bone (the same injury as Pablo Sandoval earlier this season) and will likely miss the rest of June in recovery.

The Orioles have been relatively blessed all over the diamond in terms of injuries — only Nolan Reimold has missed serious time among key contributors, and the rotation has only had to go through one spot start in two months. But with Markakis and Reimold both on the mend, the Orioles will be exposed at one of their suddenly weakest positions. Can the rest of the team keep them near the top of the standings until their outfielders return?

Read the rest of this entry »


Are Relievers Really Melting Down More This Season?

There has been much ado this season about all of the bullpen machinations across the game. Partially fueled by injuries to mainstay closers like Mariano Rivera, Brian Wilson and Joakim Soria, but also from managers with itchy trigger fingers, it seems like we have all needed our own Darren to keep up with the many revolving doors. But in looking at the aggregate numbers two months into the season, this year doesn’t look a whole lot different than last year.

Read the rest of this entry »


Pastornicky Took One For The Team

My first thought after hearing Braves Tyler Pastornicky had been sent down was, “I hope his terrible beginning doesn’t define the rest of his career.” It would be unfortunate considering few expected the 22-year old to do much more than hold the fort, if that, as a rookie in Atlanta. And even though the results (-0.9 WAR) in 45 games ranked Pastornicky as the lowest performing shortstop in baseball, it does not mean he can’t rebound to have a long career at the big league level in some capacity. After all, Pastornicky opening the season as the starting shortstop was more a matter of timing than his truly being ready to contribute from the start.

Yesterday, Ben Duronio, resident expert on all things Braves discussed Pastornicky’s replacement in Andrelton Simmons and why he’s needed in Atlanta right now. He was spot on in his assessment, so no questions there. However, the comments section included this gem worth discussing in greater length.

Although I think the Braves are a well run organization, opening camp with Pastornicky was deeply flawed and had too much of a “wait and see” approach. Old School evaluations like “makeup” (son of a major leaguer) and batting average (with a ridiculous .398 BABIP in his brief and only AAA appearance last year) thrust Pastornicky in a role he is not and likely will not be suited for.

Read the rest of this entry »


Moyer’s Career Crossroads

The Rockies designated Jamie Moyer for assignment this week, likely spelling the end of his short run in Colorado. A year removed from undergoing Tommy John surgery, Moyer showed some positive signs over his 10 starts with the Rockies, but the team was discouraged with the overall results and opted to head in a different direction.

While the designation for assignment doesn’t preclude the team from hanging onto the player, it seems unlikely that the end result here involves the 49-year old Moyer pitching for a Rockies’ minor league affiliate.

Whether he is viewed as more of a novelty than an asset — and at this point in his career it’s hard to view him as a significant contributor — Moyer will probably receive some interest throughout the league. He might not get to start many more games, but some team will take a low-risk flier on him in some capacity if he decides to keep pitching.

While getting cut by a 21-29 team currently 10.5 games out of first place might signal it’s time to hang up the cleats, Moyer may still have something left to offer whichever team brings him aboard.

Read the rest of this entry »


Pale Hose Hero: A.J.

Who had the White Sox winning the Central in his or her preseason prognostications? Okay, I’m sure someone somewhere did, and maybe that person is not even a White Sox fan. And, yes, there is still about two-thirds of a season to go. As has been said many times before, the American League Central is full of flawed teams, but the White Sox seemed to be headed for another “transitional” year. In my personal experience, this is when they have been the most dangerous during the Kenny Williams Era — just when you least expect it, there are the White Sox on top. The Santos trade, the manager brouhaha, the talk of letting the kids play despite a dearth of good young talent and more all seemed to point to a year of mediocrity on the South Side.

Yet, here we are: the White Sox currently lead the division by 1.5 games. Gavin Floyd and John Danks have been somewhat disappointing, but Chris Sale has been a revelation as a starter and Jake Peavy is pitching better than he has in years. Paul Konerko‘s bat is continuing its surprising mid-30s surge. Adam Dunn is seemingly back from the dead. Alejandro De Aza quietly having a good year, Alex Rios has been useful, and Dayan Viciedo’s power has made up for his near-total lack of walks. But today I want to briefly mention a key under-the-radar performance by a guy who usually gets attention for other reasons, a guy who I think everyone would say is just about their “favorite” player, and a guy who currently has a higher wOBA than his replacement (ol’ what’s his name) in Minnesota: A.J. Pierzynski. That’s right, he not only keeps coming back, but now he is hitting for power.

Read the rest of this entry »


James Shields: Becoming an Ace

This might seem like a weird time to be writing an article about James Shields experiencing a breakout season, given that his 3.95 ERA this season is over a run higher than the 2.82 mark he posted last year. From a traditional standpoint, if Shields made an ace like leap, it was last season, and this year he’s simply regressing back to something less than ace-worthiness.

But, of course, I’m not exactly a big fan of ERA, especially when it comes to evaluating changes in pitcher performance. There are so many variables in ERA that a pitcher has little or no control over, and evaluating a pitcher by the amount of “earned runs” (whatever that means) he allows often causes us to miss real changes that do tell us something about what we should expect in the future. That looks to be the case with James Shields right now.

Read the rest of this entry »


Daily Notes: Detroit Prospect Crosby to Debut

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Actual Transaction News: Yesterday’s Three Promotions
2. Featured Game: New York AL at Detroit, 19:05 ET (Free Game)
3. One Other Notable Game
4. Today’s Complete Schedule

Actual Transaction News: Yesterday’s Three Promotions
Yesterday’s Promotions
Three notable players were promoted to the majors yesterday: Atlanta shortstop Andrelton Simmons, Dodgers outfielder Alex Castellanos, and Cardinals right-hander Maikel Cleto.

For More Information on Two of Those Players
For more information on Simmons, read Ben Duronio’s piece from yesterday. For more on Castellanos, read this piece by Jackie Moore — also from yesterday.

For More Information on Cleto
For more information on Cleto, regard these three bullet points.

• Has a fastball that sits — in relief, at least — at around 98 mph.
• Control was an issue (13.8% BB in 71.1 IP) following promotion to Triple-A last season, but less so in lower minors (ca. 8% BB in 63.1 IP) before that.
• Has pitched very well at Triple-A Memphis this season. Line: 26.0 IP, 11.77 K/9, 3.12 BB/9, 0.69 HR/9, 2.85 FIP.

Cleto’s Role
Cleto will pitch in relief for the Cardinals.

Read the rest of this entry »