Daily Notes: A-ing a Rhetorical Q About Mets, Cards

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of csontents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Featured Game: St. Louis at New York NL, 16:10 ET (Free Game)
2. One Other Notable Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Featured Game: St. Louis at New York NL, 16:10 ET
A Question Someone Might Ask
A question someone might ask ahead of this game — for rhetorical purposes, say — is this: “What’s more surprising: that the Cardinals are in second place in their division, or that the Mets are in second place in theirs?”

Regarding the Intent of Such a Question
The intent of such a question likely would be to illustrate how the Cardinals’ record (27-25, 2.5 games behind the Reds) is worse than one would expect (given their run scoring and prevention so far) and how the Mets’ record (29-23, 1.0 games behind the Nationals) is better (according to the same criteria).

An Actual Possible Answer
Using each team’s respective WAR record — that is, a theoretical record based on the wins above replacement each club has amassed at the team level — it’s possible to provide something like an actual answer to that question.

The NL East by WAR Record
Here, for example, is the NL East by WAR record (through play yesterday):

The NL Central by WAR Record
And here’s the NL Central by WAR (also through play yesterday):

Irrefutable Conclusion
The irrefutable conclusion, based on the above, is that the Cardinals, actually, are the more surprising second-place team. While ca. 6.5 WAR wins separate them from the next best NL Central team, only about 1.5 or 2.0 WAR wins separate the Mets from the Phillies.

A More Refutable Conclusion
Decidedly more refutable than the above would be the conclusion that the author has utilized anything resembling “sense” in the composition of this missive.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast
Per the results of our offseason crowdsourcing project, FanGraphs readers prefer New York NL Television (link).

One Other Notable Game
Atlanta at Washington | 16:05 ET
Stephen Strasburg (58.0 IP, 72 xFIP-, 1.7 WAR), whose start was rained out last night, starts for the Nationals. Additionally: provided this game is played, Atlanta’s newly promoted shortstop prospect Andrelton Simmons (who takes newly demoted shortstop Tyler Pastornicky’s spot on the 25-man roster) is expected to make his major-league debut.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Either Atlanta or Washington Radio.

Today’s Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire. The average NERD Game Score for today is 5.3.

Note: the following Game Scores include the poorly conceived playoff-odds adjustment discussed in a recent edition of Daily Notes. Also note: the following table is entirely sortable.

Away		SP	Tm.	Gm.	Tm.	SP		Home	Time
Felix Doubront	BOS	7	4	6	6	2	TOR	Kyle Drabek	13:07
Brandon McCarthy	OAK	4	2	3	6	5	KC	Luke Hochevar	14:10
Brandon Beachy	ATL	5	7	8	5	10	WAS	Stephen Strasburg	16:05
Ricky Nolasco	MIA	3	4	7	4	9	PHI	Cole Hamels	16:05
Brian Matusz	BAL	3	5	5	5	3	TB	Jeremy Hellickson	16:10
Aaron Harang	LAN	4	5	5	9	6	COL	Juan Nicasio	16:10
Hector Noesi	SEA	3	5	3	6	4	CHA	Gavin Floyd	16:10
Lance Lynn	STL	8	10	9	1	10	NYN	R.A. Dickey	16:10
Erik Bedard	PIT	5	1	4	5	5	MIL	Shaun Marcum	19:10
Daniel Hudson	AZ	6	4	4	5	4	SD	Edinson Volquez	19:15
Matt Garza	CHN	7	4	6	5	6	SF	Matt Cain	19:15
Mat Latos	CIN	5	3	5	6	5	HOU	Wandy Rodriguez	19:15
P.J. Walters	MIN	4	2	5	4	7	CLE	Josh Tomlin	19:15
Hiroki Kuroda	NYA	2	5	5	5	6	DET	Rick Porcello	19:15
Yu Darvish	TEX	6	10	5	3	4	LAA	C.J. Wilson	22:05

To learn more about Pitcher and Team NERD scores click here.
To learn how Game NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.