Archive for September, 2012

O’s Sweep Rays, Jake McGee Sweeps O’s

Rays reliever Jake McGee has, at this writing, struck out seven consecutive batters. McGee has not, as I was led to believe by a certain other distinguished FanGraphs author, struck out nine consecutive batters. This fact was uncovered embarrassingly late in the research and article-development process. A streak of seven is less impressive and less unlikely than a streak of nine. But a streak of seven is still impressive, and still unlikely, and of course, McGee’s streak of seven is still alive, pending the next plate appearance. So McGee’s streak is still worth writing about. Consider for reference that Aaron Cook registered seven strikeouts through his first ten starts, spanning 237 batters. McGee has done that against 230 fewer batters.

Tampa Bay has a critical series coming up against New York, but they’re coming off a critical series against Baltimore, a critical series in which they got swept. Their Cool Standings playoff odds dropped from about 61 percent to about 27 percent, as the Rays went from looking like favorites to looking like underdogs. They’re left now to lick their wounds and try to bounce back against the Yankees, but one Ray who has nothing to feel bad about is McGee, who did the best against the Orioles that he possibly could have.

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David Wright: Extend, Trade, or Wait?

A few weeks ago, David Wright told Jon Heyman that he was “extremely optimistic” about the chances of reaching a long term contract extension with the Mets, and said all the right things about loyalty, about the franchise heading in the right direction, and about idolizing Cal Ripken because he stayed with one team for his entire career. Generally, when you have a 29-year-old posting a +6.7 WAR season who is openly talking about wanting to finish his career with your franchise, you’d be rushing to the table to get him locked up. And a few months ago, that looked like the easy call, as Wright was re-establishing himself as one of the league’s best players.

However, something funny has happened on the way to Wright and the Mets agreeing to a new contract that would keep him in Queens for the remainder of his career – for the last few months, David Wright has been pretty bad.

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Should Rafael Soriano Opt Out?

A report broke yesterday that Rafael Soriano may opt out of his $14 million option for next season with the Yankees in order to once again test the free agent market. On the surface, this would seem like a foolish idea. And when you dig deeper…it still sounds foolish, unless he is pulling a move similar to what C.C. Sabathia and Alex Rodriguez did with the Yankees, which is to opt out of his current deal in order to get a fresh deal with additional seasons on it.

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Arizona Fall League Breakdown: Surprise Saguaros

Tentative rosters for the Arizona Fall League were released on Aug. 29. The fall developmental league is designed to help prospects received extra seasoning and coaching at the conclusion of the minor league season. Each organization contributes players to the six-team league. The league typically shifts in favor of the hitters because teams are generally reluctant to assign top arms to the league – unless they’re attempting to make up for lost innings due to injuries.

We’ve already broken down four AFL clubs:
Mesa Solar Sox
Peoria Javelinas
Phoenix Desert Dogs
Scottsdale Scorpions.

The Surprise Saguaros club consists of players from five organizations – St. Louis, Kansas City, Boston, Texas and New York (NL). Below are some interesting names set to appear on the roster. Full rosters can be found here.

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Daily Notes, With Resplendent Texas League Leaders

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. SCOUT Leaderboards: Double-A Texas League
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

SCOUT Leaderboards: Double-A Texas League
Regarding What Is SCOUT, First of All
SCOUT is a (likely absurd, admittedly unnecessary) metric designed by the author to assess performance in those instances — like in a minor league, for example — where small samples are ubiquitous.

The Offensive Version of SCOUT, How It’s Calculated
The offensive version of SCOUT — represented as SCOUT+, where 100 is league average and above 100 is above average — is essentially a version of wRC+, except using the three main defense-independent metrics (home-run, walk, and strikeout rates), all regressed duly*, as the inputs.

*By the method outlined here.

The Pitching Version of SCOUT, How It’s Calculated
The pitching version of SCOUT — represented as SCOUT-, where 100 is league average and below 100 represents above-average run prevention — is calculated using a version of kwERA, with regressed strikeout and walk rates as the relevant inputs.

Regarding SCOUT, One of Its Benefits
A benefit of SCOUT is it allows one to compare the relative performances of players with markedly different sample sizes.

Regarding the Texas League, Its Regular Season
The Texas League’s regular season ended on September 3rd, it appears. As such, all following numbers are final for 2012.

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Effectively Wild Episode 42: Breaking Down Baltimore’s Latest Extra-Inning Win/Should Rafael Soriano Opt Out?

Ben and Sam discuss the Orioles’ exciting 14-inning victory over Tampa Bay, then break down Rafael Soriano’s season and his upcoming opt-out decision.


Yadier Molina Appreciation GIF

I don’t really know what to add to this. Just watch and try to keep your jaw closed.

Yadier Molina is amazing.


FanGraphs Audio: Cardinals Prospect Kolten Wong

Episode 241
David Laurila, curator of FanGraphs’ Q&A Series, talks with St. Louis Cardinals second-base prospect Kolten Wong.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 17 min. play time.)

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The Sad, Neglected Fog Horn at AT&T Park

Wednesday night, Kevin Millwood was laboring through shoulder discomfort in a start in Toronto. Still, he’d kept the Blue Jays hitless through three and a third. That’s when he let an 0-and-2 fastball to Edwin Encarnacion catch a little too much of the plate. Encarnacion blasted the pitch way out to left field, and the Jays got on the board. It was the 22nd home home run of Encarnacion’s 2012 season. That ties him for the second-most in baseball. A glimpse at the current leaderboard:

  1. Miguel Cabrera, 24
  2. Edwin Encarnacion, 22
  3. Ryan Braun, 22
  4. Giants, 22

Whoa, wait, hold on a second. What?

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2013 Schedule: Constant Interleague, Still Unbalanced

Welcome to the future. In the all-new, sleek and streamlined 2013 schedule that MLB just released, every division will have the same number of teams, every team will play the same number of intradivision and interleague games, and there will be “at least one Interleague game every day.”

The Astros’ move to the AL West makes all of this standardization possible. Every team will play exactly 19 games against each of the other four teams in its division (76 total), 6-7 intraleague games against each of the 10 teams in the other two divisions (66 total), and 20 interleague games. The season will begin right after the World Baseball Classic, on March 31, and will end on September 29. (No word on whether the playoffs will end before November.)
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