2013 ZiPS Projections – Atlanta Braves

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Atlanta Braves. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Brewers / Cardinals / Cubs / Diamondbacks / Dodgers / Giants / Mariners / Marlins / Mets / Nationals / Orioles / Padres / Phillies / Pirates / Rangers / Rays / Reds / Red Sox / Rockies / Royals / Tigers / Twins / White Sox / Yankees.

Batters
Basically every starter for Atlanta — plus the Francisco/Johnson platoon at third — appears likely to produce something between two and four wins above replacement. For obvious reasons, that’s more of a good thing than a bad one — on account of, I mean, more wins is better than fewer wins. If there is a downside to having such a balanced roster, it’s that upgrading at midseason is more challenging. Last season, for example, the Chicago White Sox had the blackest of possible holes at third base. Therefore, their late-June acquisition of Kevin Youkilis represented a considerable improvement over the status quo. As of now, the possibility that the Braves will have such a glaring weakness is on the low-ish end of things.

Posing some difficulty to those who would prefer to draw strong conclusions about Atlanta based on these projections is what one might call, were he/she in the mood, the Brian McCann Shoulder Situation. The very good Braves catcher had surgery on his right shoulder in October — of which procedure Dan Szymborski’s math computer is entirely unaware. Reports suggest that McCann should be ready by mid-April, but even that timetable is liable to futz around with McCann’s “real” projection for 2013.

Pitchers
While the author, in this nearly concluded series of ZiPS posts, has generally considered each team’s starting rotation first, the Atlanta bullpen demands to be acknowledged. Closer Craig Kimbrel, the reader will note, is projected to strike out 43.2% of opposing batters. Eric O’Flaherty, Jonny Venters, and Jordan Walden — the reader will continue to note — are all projected to post park-adjusted FIPs about 20% better than league average.

The rotation, for its part, is neither (a) chopped liver, nor (b) any other sort of popular and edible organ. Kris Medlen, despite having made only 30 career starts, is projected to pitch rather on the excellent side of things. Also noteworthy is Brandon Beachy’s forecast. After undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2012, Beachy is expected back around June. If he approximates his per-inning numbers, he will be of some considerable use to the Braves, one imagines.

Bench/Prospects
Catcher-cum-outfielder Evan Gattis was among the best hitters in the Venezuelan Winter League this offseason — this, after performing admirably in both the High-A Carolina League and Double-A Southern League. ZiPS is not skeptical of the power, but is skeptical of the overall defensive ability. Also of note is this: largely obscure third baseman Joe Leonard is projected to out-WAR (in roughly the same number of plate appearances) offseason acquisition Chris Johnson.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Braves, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Jason Heyward	L	23	RF	593	81	140	27	5	24	72	16	6
B.J. Upton	R	28	CF	649	89	145	33	5	25	80	34	10
Brian McCann	L	29	C	518	51	118	21	0	21	73	3	1
Freddie Freeman	L	23	1B	648	87	156	33	2	26	97	3	2
Justin Upton	R	25	RF	661	93	152	29	4	22	76	19	9
Andrelton Simmons	R	23	SS	526	55	134	23	6	5	48	14	10
Chipper Jones	B	41	3B	424	48	100	23	0	13	57	1	1
Dan Uggla	R	33	2B	610	81	126	24	0	23	80	3	3
Juan Francisco	L	26	3B	402	42	96	24	2	16	59	2	1
Tyler Pastornicky	R	23	SS	485	54	118	21	4	7	43	12	6
Gerald Laird	R	33	C	217	22	48	10	1	3	17	1	0
Paul Janish	R	30	SS	356	35	74	18	1	3	26	2	2
Joe Leonard	R	24	3B	527	49	112	24	3	10	59	3	2
Evan Gattis	R	26	LF	396	40	90	21	3	16	53	2	4
Christian Bethancourt	R	21	C	393	33	92	11	2	6	37	9	7
Todd Cunningham	B	24	CF	493	56	113	18	6	4	36	14	7
Chris Johnson	R	28	3B	541	54	128	27	4	14	74	4	1
Jordan Parraz	R	28	RF	372	40	82	19	3	6	34	5	3
Ramiro Pena	B	27	SS	339	32	72	11	2	3	26	4	2
Jose Constanza	L	29	LF	501	60	122	9	6	2	32	21	8
Stefan Gartrell	R	29	RF	522	57	108	23	1	18	61	5	1
Ruben Gotay	B	30	3B	441	47	89	15	2	7	37	4	3
Ernesto Mejia	R	27	1B	577	58	128	29	1	21	74	5	2
Matt Pagnozzi	R	30	C	283	24	53	10	0	3	25	0	1
Blake DeWitt	L	27	LF	302	28	63	14	4	4	27	1	1
Jordan Schafer	L	26	CF	411	47	78	13	2	4	25	23	8
Reed Johnson	R	36	LF	251	26	58	13	2	3	19	2	2
Joey Terdoslavich	B	24	1B	588	57	129	33	4	13	63	4	0
Josh Kroeger	L	30	RF	419	41	91	21	0	9	43	8	6

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Jason Heyward	593	9.9%	21.8%	.207	.307	.265	.341	.472	.351
B.J. Upton	649	9.4%	25.6%	.204	.306	.251	.322	.455	.338
Brian McCann	518	10.4%	16.8%	.183	.275	.258	.338	.441	.329
Freddie Freeman	648	9.9%	20.2%	.202	.310	.274	.350	.476	.353
Justin Upton	661	10.4%	22.5%	.179	.316	.263	.348	.442	.339
Andrelton Simmons	526	5.3%	10.1%	.104	.301	.278	.320	.382	.298
Chipper Jones	424	10.8%	14.2%	.166	.286	.268	.347	.434	.330
Dan Uggla	610	11.6%	24.1%	.176	.285	.238	.334	.414	.326
Juan Francisco	402	4.2%	28.1%	.199	.315	.252	.286	.451	.313
Tyler Pastornicky	485	5.2%	12.6%	.113	.292	.265	.305	.378	.291
Gerald Laird	217	6.9%	15.7%	.107	.281	.245	.304	.352	.284
Paul Janish	356	7.6%	14.3%	.091	.265	.231	.299	.322	.274
Joe Leonard	527	6.8%	23.9%	.125	.291	.233	.288	.358	.282
Evan Gattis	396	5.8%	18.2%	.206	.266	.247	.303	.453	.320
Christian Bethancourt	393	2.3%	19.8%	.088	.291	.245	.263	.333	.256
Todd Cunningham	493	5.3%	15.0%	.093	.291	.251	.303	.344	.283
Chris Johnson	541	5.0%	25.0%	.153	.317	.254	.296	.407	.301
Jordan Parraz	372	6.5%	19.9%	.128	.295	.243	.308	.371	.298
Ramiro Pena	339	6.2%	19.2%	.078	.283	.232	.284	.310	.262
Jose Constanza	501	6.6%	14.2%	.059	.310	.266	.316	.325	.280
Stefan Gartrell	522	7.1%	29.1%	.165	.291	.226	.288	.391	.297
Ruben Gotay	441	10.9%	22.4%	.103	.289	.229	.316	.332	.287
Ernesto Mejia	577	5.5%	32.9%	.176	.327	.240	.289	.416	.304
Matt Pagnozzi	283	7.1%	27.2%	.076	.286	.209	.273	.285	.246
Blake DeWitt	302	8.3%	17.5%	.124	.271	.231	.298	.355	.283
Jordan Schafer	411	8.8%	26.0%	.079	.289	.214	.286	.293	.259
Reed Johnson	251	3.2%	22.7%	.111	.314	.248	.292	.359	.281
Joey Terdoslavich	588	6.1%	25.2%	.148	.300	.238	.286	.386	.291
Josh Kroeger	419	6.9%	16.2%	.125	.265	.236	.294	.361	.282

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	WAR	No.1 Comp
Jason Heyward	593	6.0	119	11	4.0	Leon Durham
B.J. Upton	649	5.5	109	0	3.5	Mike Cameron
Brian McCann	518	5.4	111	0	3.5	Ed Bailey
Freddie Freeman	648	6.2	123	-1	3.0	Kent Hrbek
Justin Upton	661	5.7	114	3	3.0	Chili Davis
Andrelton Simmons	526	4.4	91	6	2.3	Placido Polanco
Chipper Jones	424	5.5	112	-2	2.1	Pinky Higgins
Dan Uggla	610	4.9	103	-7	1.9	Rico Petrocelli
Juan Francisco	402	4.7	97	-1	1.3	Jim Presley
Tyler Pastornicky	485	4.2	85	-5	1.0	Alberto Gonzalez
Gerald Laird	217	3.9	78	2	0.8	Rollie Hemsley
Paul Janish	356	3.3	70	3	0.8	Tim Cullen
Joe Leonard	527	3.6	75	1	0.7	Corey Myers
Evan Gattis	396	4.8	103	-3	0.6	Chad Rupp
Christian Bethancourt	393	3.0	62	4	0.6	Edwin Bellorin
Todd Cunningham	493	3.8	76	1	0.6	Renard Brown
Chris Johnson	541	4.4	89	-10	0.5	Bobby Knoop
Jordan Parraz	372	4.1	84	3	0.5	Rod Allen
Ramiro Pena	339	3.1	62	3	0.4	Raul Nieves
Jose Constanza	501	3.9	75	5	0.3	Jason Tyner
Stefan Gartrell	522	4.0	83	0	0.3	John Nelson
Ruben Gotay	441	3.6	77	-6	0.0	Mark Kiger
Ernesto Mejia	577	4.3	90	-5	-0.1	Chris Cron
Matt Pagnozzi	283	2.6	53	-1	-0.1	Joe Hietpas
Blake DeWitt	302	3.7	77	0	-0.1	Michael Tullier
Jordan Schafer	411	3.1	59	-1	-0.3	Roger Bernadina
Reed Johnson	251	3.7	77	-2	-0.3	Roberto Kelly
Joey Terdoslavich	588	4.0	81	-4	-0.4	Julio Zuleta
Josh Kroeger	419	3.6	78	-5	-0.7	Ron Calloway

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Tim Hudson	R	37	27	27	169.7	106	50	14	163	73	68
Kris Medlen	R	27	23	23	145.0	113	33	13	138	58	54
Brandon Beachy	R	26	20	20	122.0	119	43	12	108	49	46
Craig Kimbrel	R	25	69	0	69.0	118	28	5	38	13	12
Mike Minor	L	25	30	30	170.7	154	57	22	161	81	76
Paul Maholm	L	31	28	28	168.0	115	51	17	168	80	75
Jonny Venters	L	28	74	0	73.3	84	34	5	59	26	24
Aaron Northcraft	R	23	25	24	129.0	98	63	11	129	66	62
Julio Teheran	R	22	28	26	142.7	100	55	17	148	76	71
Eric O’Flaherty	L	28	67	0	58.7	52	19	4	51	20	19
Cristhian Martinez	R	31	49	0	71.0	59	17	7	69	30	28
Jordan Walden	R	25	57	0	54.3	62	25	4	46	21	20
Cory Gearrin	R	27	57	0	72.0	67	35	5	65	31	29
Ben Sheets	R	34	13	13	74.3	55	23	10	76	39	36
David Carpenter	R	27	60	0	61.7	55	26	7	62	32	30
Luis Avilan	L	23	42	12	93.0	70	46	14	97	57	53
Juan Jaime	R	25	44	0	48.0	55	46	6	41	29	27
Cory Rasmus	R	25	53	0	54.7	44	42	6	55	34	32
David Hale	R	25	26	17	105.0	68	66	15	117	72	67

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Tim Hudson	169.7	722	14.7%	6.9%	.275	3.61	3.82	92	97
Kris Medlen	145.0	606	18.6%	5.4%	.281	3.35	3.32	85	85
Brandon Beachy	122.0	517	23.0%	8.3%	.283	3.39	3.39	86	86
Craig Kimbrel	69.0	273	43.2%	10.3%	.275	1.57	1.79	40	46
Mike Minor	170.7	730	21.1%	7.8%	.283	4.01	3.88	102	99
Paul Maholm	168.0	723	15.9%	7.1%	.284	4.02	3.97	103	101
Jonny Venters	73.3	313	26.8%	10.9%	.294	2.95	3.07	75	78
Aaron Northcraft	129.0	579	16.9%	10.9%	.296	4.33	4.22	110	108
Julio Teheran	142.7	631	15.8%	8.7%	.290	4.48	4.43	114	113
Eric O’Flaherty	58.7	246	21.1%	7.7%	.278	2.91	2.99	74	76
Cristhian Martinez	71.0	299	19.7%	5.7%	.290	3.55	3.30	91	84
Jordan Walden	54.3	234	26.5%	10.7%	.296	3.31	3.01	84	77
Cory Gearrin	72.0	316	21.2%	11.1%	.294	3.63	3.63	93	93
Ben Sheets	74.3	322	17.1%	7.1%	.283	4.36	4.20	111	107
David Carpenter	61.7	273	20.1%	9.5%	.304	4.38	4.01	112	102
Luis Avilan	93.0	422	16.6%	10.9%	.289	5.13	5.07	131	129
Juan Jaime	48.0	231	23.8%	19.9%	.289	5.06	5.15	129	131
Cory Rasmus	54.7	261	16.9%	16.1%	.297	5.27	5.24	134	134
David Hale	105.0	498	13.7%	13.3%	.299	5.74	5.65	146	144

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	WAR	No. 1 Comp
Tim Hudson	169.7	5.62	2.65	0.74	110	3.3	Bob Forsch
Kris Medlen	145.0	7.01	2.05	0.81	118	3.2	Shane Reynolds
Brandon Beachy	122.0	8.78	3.17	0.89	117	2.7	Jack Armstrong
Craig Kimbrel	69.0	15.39	3.65	0.65	254	2.5	Francisco Rodriguez
Mike Minor	170.7	8.12	3.01	1.16	99	2.4	John Cerutti
Paul Maholm	168.0	6.16	2.73	0.91	99	2.4	Kirk Rueter
Jonny Venters	73.3	10.31	4.17	0.61	135	1.4	Rod Scurry
Aaron Northcraft	129.0	6.84	4.40	0.77	92	1.3	Charlie Haeger
Julio Teheran	142.7	6.31	3.47	1.07	89	1.2	Wade Taylor
Eric O’Flaherty	58.7	7.97	2.91	0.61	136	1.1	Juan Agosto
Cristhian Martinez	71.0	7.48	2.15	0.89	112	0.8	Gil Heredia
Jordan Walden	54.3	10.28	4.14	0.66	120	0.8	Brian Bruney
Cory Gearrin	72.0	8.38	4.38	0.63	110	0.8	Jim Stoops
Ben Sheets	74.3	6.66	2.79	1.21	91	0.7	Bob Milacki
David Carpenter	61.7	8.02	3.79	1.02	91	0.1	Dale Thayer
Luis Avilan	93.0	6.77	4.45	1.35	77	-0.2	Frank Brooks
Juan Jaime	48.0	10.31	8.63	1.13	78	-0.3	Marcus Moore
Cory Rasmus	54.7	7.24	6.91	0.99	75	-0.5	Edwardo Sierra
David Hale	105.0	5.83	5.66	1.29	69	-0.8	Nick Skuse

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.