2013 ZiPS Projections – Colorado Rockies

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Colorado Rockies. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Brewers / Cubs / Giants / Nationals / Phillies / Pirates / Rangers / Royals / White Sox.

Batters
It is not surprising to find that, among Colorado’s field players, ZiPS finds two stars: Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez. The former, in particular, is fantastic on a per-game basis; however, injury trouble has created a rather conservative plate-appearances projection for Tulo. The shortstop has recently reported a return to form, but remember: ZiPS doesn’t know how or why he’s been injured, just that his playing time has been deflated in the near past.

Elsewhere, like last season, third base appears to be a cause for some concern for the Rockies in 2013. Chris Nelson (0.3 WAR in 377 PA) and Jordan Pacheco (0.2 WAR in 505 PA) started 148 games there between them in 2012. Neither appears to be a starting option on a winning team. Likely second baseman Josh Rutledge, meanwhile, must be a pleasant surprise for the club. Ranked around 10th on most prospect lists entering the 2012 season, ZiPS suggests that he’s become something not unlike a major-league regular.

Pitchers
If Juan Nicasio is likely the best pitcher in your starting rotation, that’s good for one reason and bad for two of them. It’s good because, at some point not long ago, it wasn’t entirely clear that Juan Nicasio was going to be even an okay starting pitcher. He is, though. Excellent! It’s bad, however, because both (a) Juan Nicasio has dealt with a knee injury in the recent past and also (b) Juan Nicasio is probably not the ace of a World Series contender.

Colorado’s bullpen, on the other hand, is the bullpen of a World Series contender. The author noted yesterday, regarding the cumulatively projected WAR for the White Sox relief corps, that it (i.e. that WAR) was among the highest we’d seen out of the teams considered so far. Yet, Colorado’s bullpen appears to be almost 40% better than Chicago’s, though — again, so far as WAR is concerned.

Bench/Prospects
If third base is a problem for Colorado, it’s possible that Nolan Arenado is ultimately the solution. He took a step back in 2012, slashing just .285/.337/.428 (.296 BABIP), with a 110 wRC+ in 573 plate appearances at Double-A, after an excellent 2011 at High-A and even more excellent Arizona Fall League, but enters just his age-22 season with above-average contact skills and the ability to play third base. Alternatively, if Eric Young could return to second base (which he’s played not horribly, it seems, at the major-league level) and let Rutledge take over at third (which one assumes he could play, given that he’s exhibited enough arm strength to play shortstop), then that might be represent an improvement, too. Finally, the author would be remiss not to mention it: Charlie Blackmon.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Rockies, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Troy Tulowitzki	R	28	SS	461	65	121	24	3	23	74	9	3
Carlos Gonzalez	L	27	LF	629	92	168	31	7	29	100	23	6
Dexter Fowler	B	27	CF	620	74	145	27	13	15	50	16	7
Josh Rutledge	R	24	2B	670	73	176	40	8	16	73	19	4
Nolan Arenado	R	22	3B	644	59	166	36	2	17	81	1	2
Wilin Rosario	R	24	C	462	51	114	20	2	22	60	3	4
Michael Cuddyer	R	34	RF	509	67	132	31	3	21	73	8	2
Eric Young	B	28	CF	377	49	88	14	5	4	23	29	6
Ryan Wheeler	L	24	3B	604	62	158	31	4	16	82	3	2
DJ LeMahieu	R	24	2B	598	53	165	26	6	3	55	12	8
Tyler Colvin	L	27	RF	468	60	113	24	9	20	70	6	2
Todd Helton	L	39	1B	330	32	75	17	1	9	43	1	1
Charlie Culberson	R	24	2B	600	74	150	29	6	14	73	14	6
Charlie Blackmon	L	26	CF	475	51	116	25	4	9	50	16	5
Cristhian Adames	B	21	SS	538	44	121	20	5	6	42	3	1
Kyle Parker	R	23	RF	526	52	119	19	4	19	67	1	1
Ramon Hernandez	R	37	C	234	19	56	11	0	7	32	0	1
Gustavo Molina	R	31	C	166	17	38	8	0	6	21	0	0
Jordan Pacheco	R	27	3B	592	51	153	29	3	7	67	6	3
Chris Nelson	R	27	3B	449	47	112	22	4	12	59	5	3
Hernan Iribarren	L	29	2B	466	43	112	18	3	4	43	13	5
Jonathan Herrera	B	28	2B	368	49	83	10	2	4	21	5	3
Corey Dickerson	L	24	LF	556	53	128	31	6	19	66	11	8
Jason Giambi	L	41	1B	125	11	25	4	0	5	17	0	0
Matt McBride	R	28	RF	538	54	136	34	3	14	69	1	1
Rafael Ortega	L	22	CF	612	56	149	23	8	9	55	31	25
Omir Santos	R	32	C	204	16	47	10	1	2	19	0	0
Tim Wheeler	L	25	RF	536	55	121	23	5	10	50	12	8

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Troy Tulowitzki	461	9.3%	15.0%	.241	.303	.294	.362	.535	.378
Carlos Gonzalez	629	8.6%	20.3%	.234	.337	.297	.360	.531	.373
Dexter Fowler	620	12.1%	23.5%	.184	.349	.272	.364	.456	.352
Josh Rutledge	670	3.9%	20.0%	.165	.332	.280	.316	.445	.330
Nolan Arenado	644	5.4%	11.0%	.153	.289	.280	.319	.433	.320
Wilin Rosario	462	5.2%	24.9%	.207	.307	.263	.301	.470	.327
Michael Cuddyer	509	7.7%	16.3%	.215	.305	.284	.340	.499	.358
Eric Young	377	8.8%	17.8%	.108	.319	.265	.339	.373	.321
Ryan Wheeler	604	5.8%	21.0%	.155	.336	.282	.325	.437	.326
DJ LeMahieu	598	4.8%	12.9%	.084	.335	.295	.328	.379	.304
Tyler Colvin	468	5.1%	25.6%	.233	.310	.258	.298	.491	.334
Todd Helton	330	12.1%	15.8%	.162	.291	.264	.355	.426	.338
Charlie Culberson	600	3.7%	21.2%	.147	.317	.265	.296	.412	.304
Charlie Blackmon	475	5.9%	16.0%	.139	.304	.267	.320	.406	.316
Cristhian Adames	538	6.7%	19.7%	.099	.304	.249	.304	.348	.283
Kyle Parker	526	8.2%	26.0%	.177	.313	.252	.321	.429	.326
Ramon Hernandez	234	5.1%	14.5%	.148	.277	.259	.305	.407	.298
Gustavo Molina	166	3.0%	20.5%	.166	.271	.242	.268	.408	.288
Jordan Pacheco	592	5.2%	11.5%	.103	.306	.280	.324	.383	.308
Chris Nelson	449	5.6%	20.0%	.158	.314	.269	.311	.427	.315
Hernan Iribarren	466	6.4%	15.5%	.085	.307	.264	.313	.349	.286
Jonathan Herrera	368	7.6%	13.9%	.079	.289	.254	.316	.333	.278
Corey Dickerson	556	6.1%	22.8%	.195	.294	.250	.300	.445	.315
Jason Giambi	125	13.6%	27.2%	.181	.299	.238	.352	.419	.336
Matt McBride	538	3.7%	14.7%	.162	.290	.268	.298	.430	.311
Rafael Ortega	612	5.2%	19.0%	.117	.313	.262	.303	.379	.288
Omir Santos	204	2.0%	17.6%	.093	.285	.244	.262	.337	.258
Tim Wheeler	536	6.5%	23.3%	.129	.311	.247	.304	.376	.293

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	WAR	No.1 Comp
Troy Tulowitzki	461	7.5	125	6	4.6	Cal Ripken
Carlos Gonzalez	629	7.6	123	0	4.0	Al Martin
Dexter Fowler	620	6.2	107	-6	2.4	Carlos Beltran
Josh Rutledge	670	5.5	91	1	2.4	Howie Kendrick
Nolan Arenado	644	5.1	89	0	1.6	Casey McGehee
Wilin Rosario	462	5.1	92	-3	1.5	John Buck
Michael Cuddyer	509	6.5	110	-8	1.3	Fernando Tatis
Eric Young	377	5.2	81	2	1.2	Greg Tubbs
Ryan Wheeler	604	5.3	92	-7	1.1	Roy Howell
DJ LeMahieu	598	4.7	80	1	0.8	Todd Haney
Tyler Colvin	468	5.4	96	-1	0.8	Larry Barnes
Todd Helton	330	5.5	98	2	0.8	Kevin Millar
Charlie Culberson	600	4.5	78	-1	0.7	Juan Melo
Charlie Blackmon	475	4.9	83	-3	0.7	Mike Dzurilla
Cristhian Adames	538	3.8	66	3	0.6	Chris Pittaro
Kyle Parker	526	5.0	89	-1	0.4	Andy Thompson
Ramon Hernandez	234	4.4	79	-2	0.4	Raul Chavez
Gustavo Molina	166	3.9	69	1	0.3	Charlie Greene
Jordan Pacheco	592	4.7	79	-5	0.3	Al Pedrique
Chris Nelson	449	4.9	85	-7	0.3	Nick Green
Hernan Iribarren	466	4.1	68	1	0.2	Chico Ruiz
Jonathan Herrera	368	3.8	66	0	-0.1	Doug Baker
Corey Dickerson	556	4.7	87	-4	-0.1	Edgard Clemente
Jason Giambi	125	5.2	95	-4	-0.2	Matt Stairs
Matt McBride	538	4.7	82	-2	-0.2	Rob Cosby
Rafael Ortega	612	3.8	72	3	-0.2	Rob Lukachyk
Omir Santos	204	3.2	51	-1	-0.3	Charlie Greene
Tim Wheeler	536	4.0	72	0	-0.7	Shaun Cumberland

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Jhoulys Chacin	R	25	25	25	136.3	110	61	16	139	72	67
Drew Pomeranz	L	24	30	30	134.3	112	65	16	144	79	74
Juan Nicasio	R	26	16	16	90.3	80	27	11	97	48	45
Matt Belisle	R	33	71	0	73.3	63	16	7	77	34	32
Daniel Rosenbaum	L	25	26	25	140.3	81	54	15	168	88	82
Rex Brothers	L	25	74	0	68.7	85	40	7	60	32	30
Jeff Francis	L	32	27	27	143.3	85	36	21	173	91	85
Rafael Betancourt	R	38	55	0	49.7	53	10	6	46	20	19
Wilton Lopez	R	29	67	0	65.7	51	12	7	69	31	29
Adam Ottavino	R	27	65	0	96.3	95	42	12	97	51	48
Jorge de la Rosa	L	32	12	12	70.7	56	34	9	74	42	39
Rob Scahill	R	26	29	26	142.7	97	80	17	168	95	89
Tyler Chatwood	R	23	30	25	129.3	79	67	17	152	86	80
Christian Friedrich	L	25	21	21	109.0	80	40	17	130	73	68
Josh Outman	L	28	36	20	107.7	81	62	14	121	72	67
Mike McClendon	R	28	44	0	64.3	37	25	5	73	37	35
Jonathan Sanchez	L	30	21	21	104.7	94	67	17	109	72	67
Edgmer Escalona	R	26	55	0	64.3	56	28	11	67	39	36
Will Harris	R	28	53	0	57.7	52	25	8	61	34	32
Joe Gardner	R	25	26	24	120.3	65	65	17	143	86	80
Royce Ring	L	32	31	0	24.7	18	10	4	28	15	14
Josh Sullivan	R	28	61	0	58.0	40	37	6	64	37	35
Erick Threets	L	31	42	0	42.7	25	26	4	48	28	26
Manuel Corpas	R	30	61	0	69.7	42	25	11	83	46	43
Tyler Matzek	L	22	25	25	112.7	97	106	15	119	82	77
Logan Kensing	R	30	25	0	29.3	21	16	4	34	20	19
Edwar Cabrera	L	25	21	21	111.7	90	49	25	133	83	78
Justin Berg	R	29	33	1	43.7	20	26	5	53	32	30
Jason Bergmann	R	31	29	4	51.3	33	29	9	62	39	36
Eric Junge	R	36	18	16	97.7	46	40	16	128	74	69
Jeff Manship	R	28	27	11	76.3	43	36	13	100	60	56
Austin Bibens-Dirkx	R	28	32	13	92.7	57	43	18	115	72	67

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Jhoulys Chacin	136.3	609	18.1%	10.0%	.295	4.42	4.42	100	100
Drew Pomeranz	134.3	612	18.3%	10.6%	.311	4.96	4.56	112	103
Juan Nicasio	90.3	395	20.3%	6.8%	.313	4.48	3.80	101	86
Matt Belisle	73.3	313	20.1%	5.1%	.313	3.93	3.23	89	73
Daniel Rosenbaum	140.3	643	12.6%	8.4%	.316	5.26	4.63	119	105
Rex Brothers	68.7	306	27.8%	13.1%	.308	3.93	3.56	89	80
Jeff Francis	143.3	639	13.3%	5.6%	.310	5.34	4.63	121	105
Rafael Betancourt	49.7	205	25.8%	4.9%	.294	3.44	3.01	78	68
Wilton Lopez	65.7	278	18.3%	4.3%	.301	3.97	3.48	90	78
Adam Ottavino	96.3	428	22.2%	9.8%	.307	4.48	3.89	101	88
Jorge de la Rosa	70.7	320	17.5%	10.6%	.298	4.97	4.65	112	105
Rob Scahill	142.7	676	14.3%	11.8%	.319	5.61	5.13	127	116
Tyler Chatwood	129.3	607	13.0%	11.0%	.308	5.57	5.18	126	117
Christian Friedrich	109.0	497	16.1%	8.0%	.318	5.61	4.89	127	110
Josh Outman	107.7	506	16.0%	12.3%	.310	5.60	5.12	126	116
Mike McClendon	64.3	291	12.7%	8.6%	.311	4.90	4.31	111	97
Jonathan Sanchez	104.7	490	19.2%	13.7%	.301	5.76	5.44	130	123
Edgmer Escalona	64.3	288	19.5%	9.7%	.295	5.04	4.93	114	111
Will Harris	57.7	259	20.1%	9.6%	.312	4.99	4.55	113	103
Joe Gardner	120.3	569	11.4%	11.4%	.305	5.98	5.62	135	127
Royce Ring	24.7	112	16.1%	8.9%	.303	5.11	4.96	115	112
Josh Sullivan	58.0	275	14.5%	13.5%	.310	5.43	5.23	123	118
Erick Threets	42.7	202	12.4%	12.9%	.305	5.48	5.04	124	114
Manuel Corpas	69.7	317	13.2%	7.9%	.308	5.56	5.06	126	114
Tyler Matzek	112.7	563	17.2%	18.8%	.308	6.15	6.11	139	138
Logan Kensing	29.3	138	15.2%	11.6%	.316	5.83	5.18	132	117
Edwar Cabrera	111.7	517	17.4%	9.5%	.313	6.29	5.90	142	133
Justin Berg	43.7	210	9.5%	12.4%	.307	6.18	5.59	140	126
Jason Bergmann	51.3	245	13.5%	11.8%	.312	6.31	5.96	142	135
Eric Junge	97.7	461	10.0%	8.7%	.317	6.36	5.66	144	128
Jeff Manship	76.3	365	11.8%	9.9%	.324	6.60	5.72	149	129
Austin Bibens-Dirkx	92.7	436	13.1%	9.9%	.311	6.51	5.91	147	133

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	WAR	No. 1 Comp
Jhoulys Chacin	136.3	7.26	4.03	1.06	105	2.8	Charlie Lea
Drew Pomeranz	134.3	7.51	4.36	1.07	94	1.9	David West
Juan Nicasio	90.3	7.97	2.69	1.10	104	1.8	Paul Wilson
Matt Belisle	73.3	7.74	1.96	0.86	118	1.5	Mike Maddux
Daniel Rosenbaum	140.3	5.20	3.46	0.96	88	1.4	Jeff Mutis
Rex Brothers	68.7	11.14	5.24	0.92	118	1.4	Mitch Williams
Jeff Francis	143.3	5.34	2.26	1.32	87	1.3	Mark Hendrickson
Rafael Betancourt	49.7	9.60	1.81	1.09	135	1.3	John Smoltz
Wilton Lopez	65.7	6.99	1.64	0.96	117	1.3	Rod Beck
Adam Ottavino	96.3	8.88	3.93	1.12	104	1.3	Frank Williams
Jorge de la Rosa	70.7	7.13	4.33	1.15	94	1.0	Randy Wolf
Rob Scahill	142.7	6.12	5.05	1.07	83	0.8	Kevin Ritz
Tyler Chatwood	129.3	5.50	4.66	1.18	83	0.8	Jim Acker
Christian Friedrich	109.0	6.61	3.30	1.40	83	0.7	Brian Tallet
Josh Outman	107.7	6.77	5.18	1.17	83	0.6	Eddie Oropesa
Mike McClendon	64.3	5.18	3.50	0.70	95	0.5	Scott Munter
Jonathan Sanchez	104.7	8.08	5.76	1.46	81	0.4	Ken Kravec
Edgmer Escalona	64.3	7.84	3.92	1.54	92	0.4	Mike Crudale
Will Harris	57.7	8.11	3.90	1.25	93	0.4	Colter Bean
Joe Gardner	120.3	4.86	4.86	1.27	78	0.2	Ken Pumphrey
Royce Ring	24.7	6.56	3.64	1.46	91	0.1	Mike Venafro
Josh Sullivan	58.0	6.21	5.74	0.93	86	0.1	Jake Robbins
Erick Threets	42.7	5.27	5.48	0.84	85	0.0	John Curtis
Manuel Corpas	69.7	5.42	3.23	1.42	84	0.0	Brandon Puffer
Tyler Matzek	112.7	7.75	8.46	1.20	76	-0.1	Jordan Pals
Logan Kensing	29.3	6.45	4.91	1.23	80	-0.1	Jarod Juelsgaard
Edwar Cabrera	111.7	7.25	3.95	2.01	74	-0.2	Doug Creek
Justin Berg	43.7	4.12	5.35	1.03	75	-0.3	Ed Sprague
Jason Bergmann	51.3	5.79	5.09	1.58	74	-0.3	Jim Dedrick
Eric Junge	97.7	4.24	3.68	1.47	73	-0.3	Aaron Sele
Jeff Manship	76.3	5.07	4.25	1.53	70	-0.6	Lee Rodney
Austin Bibens-Dirkx	92.7	5.53	4.17	1.75	71	-0.6	John Kelly

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.