2013 ZiPS Projections – Kansas City Royals

by
January 10, 2013

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, will be released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Kansas City Royals. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Cubs / Giants / Nationals / Phillies / Rangers.

Batters
Jeff Francoeur remains better at baseball than almost everyone — but likely not as good as an average major-leaguer. It will probably not shock Royals fans that Francoeur — who GM Dayton Moore suggested in December will remain the team’s starting right fielder even after posting a -1.2 WAR in 2012 — is projected to be the weakest link among Kansas City’s field players.

Of some interest will be how the club handles second base this year. Despite having posted just a 64 wRC+ and -0.8 WAR in his first 376 major-league plate appearances, 25-year-old Johnny Giavotella’s profile — according to ZiPS — remains that of league-average player. To his credit, he posted one of the best regressed offensive lines in the Pacific Coast League last year among prospect-aged batters.

Pitchers
It’s not that the additions of Wade Davis and James Shields won’t help the Royals: they will. It’s to what degree they’ll help — especially considering the cost (i.e. Wil Myers). While ZiPS projects the Toronto Blue Jays’ renovated starting rotation (featured yesterday) to produce about 10 more wins than in 2012, Kansas City’s starting rotation is forecast to post a collective mark only about one or two wins better than last year’s version (which recorded a 7.6 WAR, all told, it appears).

Meanwhile, the bullpen is not this team’s problem. Even with the departure via trade last midseason of a resurgent and effective Jonathan Broxton, the Royals still have a legitimate relief ace in Greg Holland and three other pitchers (Tim Collins, Aaron Crow, and Kelvin Herrera) well suited to high-leverage work. Nor does that even consider what gains Luke Hochevar might make on a per-inning basis if he fails to secure a rotation spot.

Bench/Prospects
Jarrod Dyson appears likely to occupy a reserve role to begin the season, although his projected line suggests that — owing largely to his defense and baserunning — that he might actually represent an improvement over Francoeur. Miguel Tejada recently signed what will ultimately become a $1.1 million deal; meanwhile, it’s very possible that he’ll play like freely available talent. Right-hander Felipe Paulino signed one-year, $1.75 million deal with the Royals this offseason to avoid arbitration. He’s expected to return from Tommy John surgery at midseason, and could be valuable either as part of the rotation or in the bullpen.

You Aren't a FanGraphs Member
It looks like you aren't yet a FanGraphs Member (or aren't logged in). We aren't mad, just disappointed. We get it. You want to read this article. But before we let you get back to it, we'd like to point out a few of the good reasons why you should become a Member. 1. Ad Free viewing! We won't bug you with this ad, or any other. 2. Unlimited articles! Non-Members only get to read 10 free articles a month. Members never get cut off. 3. Dark mode and Classic mode! 4. Custom player page dashboards! Choose the player cards you want, in the order you want them. 5. One-click data exports! Export our projections and leaderboards for your personal projects. 6. Remove the photos on the home page! (Honestly, this doesn't sound so great to us, but some people wanted it, and we like to give our Members what they want.) 7. Even more Steamer projections! We have handedness, percentile, and context neutral projections available for Members only. 8. Get FanGraphs Walk-Off, a customized year end review! Find out exactly how you used FanGraphs this year, and how that compares to other Members. Don't be a victim of FOMO. 9. A weekly mailbag column, exclusively for Members. 10. Help support FanGraphs and our entire staff! Our Members provide us with critical resources to improve the site and deliver new features! We hope you'll consider a Membership today, for yourself or as a gift! And we realize this has been an awfully long sales pitch, so we've also removed all the other ads in this article. We didn't want to overdo it. In case you didn't read all that, here's the short version. Membership includes:
✓Ad-free browsing
✓Unlimited FanGraphs & RotoGraphs articles
✓Historical & platoon projections
✓Leaderboard & player-page stat heatmaps
✓One-click data exports
✓Customizable player-page dashboards
✓Dark & Classic site modes
✓Weekly Members-only mailbag
✓FanGraphs Walk-Off, your year in review
✓Optional homepage photo removal
✓Gift articles to non-Members
✓Full postseason coverage

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Royals, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Royals Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Billy Butler R 27 DH 661 72 174 36 1 23 92 2 1
Alex Gordon L 29 LF 655 86 155 38 3 17 67 11 6
Salvador Perez R 23 C 473 51 128 23 1 12 56 0 0
Mike Moustakas L 24 3B 649 71 156 37 2 20 81 5 2
Alcides Escobar R 26 SS 624 70 156 24 8 5 48 28 6
Eric Hosmer L 23 1B 645 77 159 28 3 20 79 15 3
Johnny Giavotella R 25 2B 677 77 166 31 4 8 65 11 4
Lorenzo Cain R 27 CF 471 49 112 19 4 9 46 15 3
Jarrod Dyson L 28 CF 423 53 93 13 5 1 23 35 6
Jeff Francoeur R 29 RF 609 64 147 32 3 16 66 10 7
Irving Falu B 30 3B 513 55 124 17 4 3 41 14 7
Tony Abreu B 28 SS 499 47 117 24 4 6 53 6 4
Brett Hayes R 29 C 191 19 41 10 0 4 15 1 0
David Lough L 27 RF 606 66 140 22 8 9 53 16 5
Adam Moore R 29 C 235 23 52 11 0 4 16 1 0
Chris Getz L 29 2B 334 37 78 11 3 0 24 15 4
Cody Clark R 31 C 233 20 46 10 0 3 17 0 0
Luis Durango B 27 CF 542 61 123 9 4 0 32 32 14
Cheslor Cuthbert R 20 3B 519 50 110 19 0 10 54 4 3
Miguel Tejada R 39 3B 209 18 49 9 0 2 16 2 2
Anthony Seratelli B 30 3B 460 48 93 11 3 7 40 14 5
Brandon Wood R 28 3B 382 34 75 16 1 8 34 1 0
Endy Chavez L 35 RF 229 20 53 9 1 2 15 6 2
Xavier Nady R 34 LF 254 23 52 10 0 5 24 1 0
Willy Taveras R 31 CF 318 30 68 9 2 3 18 10 3
Ian Gac R 27 1B 471 45 93 24 1 12 50 1 1
Mario Lisson R 29 1B 439 41 82 21 0 8 37 12 4

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA
Billy Butler 661 9.1% 15.1% .181 .319 .295 .362 .476 .354
Alex Gordon 655 10.5% 20.3% .165 .322 .269 .352 .434 .341
Salvador Perez 473 3.8% 10.6% .136 .298 .286 .316 .422 .317
Mike Moustakas 649 6.0% 17.7% .169 .291 .261 .310 .430 .316
Alcides Escobar 624 4.6% 13.8% .095 .310 .271 .312 .366 .295
Eric Hosmer 645 8.7% 14.9% .162 .295 .273 .336 .435 .333
Johnny Giavotella 677 6.4% 13.4% .102 .299 .266 .316 .368 .300
Lorenzo Cain 471 5.9% 22.3% .124 .320 .259 .311 .383 .308
Jarrod Dyson 423 7.1% 17.5% .068 .299 .244 .301 .312 .279
Jeff Francoeur 609 5.3% 18.1% .152 .295 .261 .305 .413 .303
Irving Falu 513 5.3% 10.5% .072 .288 .261 .300 .333 .273
Tony Abreu 499 3.2% 19.6% .106 .298 .248 .276 .354 .271
Brett Hayes 191 4.7% 27.7% .123 .301 .229 .268 .352 .264
David Lough 606 4.3% 13.9% .117 .279 .252 .290 .369 .280
Adam Moore 235 5.1% 20.0% .105 .284 .239 .282 .344 .272
Chris Getz 334 6.3% 10.2% .057 .290 .259 .310 .316 .277
Cody Clark 233 5.2% 18.0% .091 .257 .219 .265 .310 .247
Luis Durango 542 7.7% 17.7% .035 .315 .254 .313 .289 .267
Cheslor Cuthbert 519 5.6% 20.4% .101 .268 .226 .270 .327 .263
Miguel Tejada 209 3.8% 11.0% .077 .272 .251 .284 .328 .256
Anthony Seratelli 460 7.8% 25.0% .091 .290 .223 .288 .314 .269
Brandon Wood 382 5.2% 28.3% .118 .277 .211 .255 .329 .252
Endy Chavez 229 3.9% 11.4% .080 .273 .249 .280 .329 .265
Xavier Nady 254 5.5% 24.4% .107 .278 .222 .276 .329 .266
Willy Taveras 318 3.5% 15.7% .074 .263 .228 .259 .302 .246
Ian Gac 471 6.2% 34.6% .142 .308 .214 .268 .356 .272
Mario Lisson 439 6.2% 27.3% .113 .269 .204 .262 .317 .257

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def WAR No.1 Comp
Billy Butler 661 6.6 129 0 3.8 Mike Sweeney
Alex Gordon 655 5.6 115 7 3.6 Rusty Greer
Salvador Perez 473 5.0 101 6 3.2 Bengie Molina
Mike Moustakas 649 4.9 101 1 3.2 Aramis Ramirez
Alcides Escobar 624 4.5 86 0 2.6 Cristian Guzman
Eric Hosmer 645 5.6 111 -5 2.0 Tino Martinez
Johnny Giavotella 677 4.3 88 -3 1.7 Todd Haney
Lorenzo Cain 471 4.6 90 -3 1.6 Reggie Williams
Jarrod Dyson 423 4.0 70 3 1.2 McKay Christensen
Jeff Francoeur 609 4.5 96 -4 1.0 Wes Chamberlain
Irving Falu 513 3.6 74 -3 0.8 Tom Runnells
Tony Abreu 499 3.5 72 -1 0.7 Garry Templeton
Brett Hayes 191 3.4 69 2 0.6 Joel Skinner
David Lough 606 4.0 80 2 0.5 Tike Redman
Adam Moore 235 3.5 72 -2 0.4 Brandon Marsters
Chris Getz 334 3.8 73 -4 0.4 Bernie Castro
Cody Clark 233 2.8 58 -1 0.1 Charlie Greene
Luis Durango 542 3.4 68 -2 -0.1 Joey Gathright
Cheslor Cuthbert 519 3.0 64 -1 -0.1 Javier Colina
Miguel Tejada 209 3.3 68 -1 -0.1 Pete Suder
Anthony Seratelli 460 3.3 66 -5 -0.1 Leonard Hannahan
Brandon Wood 382 2.9 60 -1 -0.1 Nate Manning
Endy Chavez 229 3.4 67 0 -0.2 Joe Orsulak
Xavier Nady 254 3.2 66 0 -0.3 Chad Moeller
Willy Taveras 318 2.9 54 -1 -0.4 Manny Martinez
Ian Gac 471 3.3 70 -1 -0.7 John Santor
Mario Lisson 439 2.9 59 -1 -1.0 Mike Rosamond

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player T Age G GS IP SO BB HR H R ER
James Shields R 31 31 31 208.0 183 53 28 211 102 95
Jeremy Guthrie R 34 28 26 163.7 102 45 24 177 86 80
Wade Davis R 27 25 25 153.3 119 56 20 155 79 74
Greg Holland R 27 66 0 73.0 92 32 6 60 28 26
Felipe Paulino R 29 15 15 88.7 83 36 10 91 47 44
Will Smith L 23 28 28 163.7 93 56 21 185 96 90
Kelvin Herrera R 23 66 0 77.3 70 21 8 75 34 32
Aaron Crow R 26 69 0 64.0 66 25 7 59 29 27
Tim Collins L 23 72 0 69.3 89 38 8 57 31 29
Louis Coleman R 27 51 1 71.7 78 33 11 62 34 32
Ervin Santana R 30 29 29 178.3 132 62 32 189 107 100
Luke Hochevar R 29 26 26 156.7 113 51 22 169 94 88
Danny Duffy L 24 16 16 81.0 71 36 12 83 46 43
Bruce Chen L 36 27 25 141.3 98 43 23 155 85 79
Luis Mendoza R 29 28 20 134.3 70 50 16 154 80 75
Everett Teaford L 29 30 10 83.3 55 32 13 91 50 47
Francisley Bueno L 32 49 0 63.0 37 22 7 66 34 32
Guillermo Moscoso R 29 32 22 135.3 91 50 24 152 86 80
Donnie Joseph L 25 57 0 62.0 54 36 7 63 35 33
Nathan Adcock R 25 28 16 107.3 54 42 12 130 68 64
John Lamb L 22 8 8 25.0 14 11 4 30 17 16
Dan Wheeler R 35 47 0 45.7 30 17 7 49 27 25
Brian Sanches R 34 42 1 53.7 35 21 9 59 32 30
Doug Davis L 37 15 14 78.0 46 37 10 90 51 48
Yordano Ventura R 22 23 23 97.3 72 50 18 107 65 61
Juan Gutierrez R 29 29 0 30.0 22 12 6 34 20 19
Roman Colon R 33 29 0 41.3 24 21 6 46 27 25
Michael Mariot R 24 30 12 99.0 49 41 17 116 67 63
Jose Jimenez L 26 48 0 59.3 35 34 9 70 43 40
Atahualpa Severino L 28 47 0 44.0 31 35 7 52 34 32
Ryan Verdugo L 26 30 19 101.0 72 73 19 111 75 70
Jason Adam R 21 24 24 121.0 63 41 28 145 89 83
Chris Volstad R 26 30 30 165.3 89 55 27 215 119 111
Noel Arguelles L 23 23 23 99.3 38 70 17 122 80 75
Chris Dwyer L 25 25 25 120.0 70 91 26 140 100 93

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
James Shields 208.0 888 20.6% 6.0% .297 4.11 3.92 99 95
Jeremy Guthrie 163.7 713 14.3% 6.3% .287 4.40 4.73 107 114
Wade Davis 153.3 671 17.7% 8.3% .288 4.34 4.45 105 108
Greg Holland 73.0 311 29.6% 10.3% .300 3.21 2.75 78 67
Felipe Paulino 88.7 393 21.1% 9.2% .311 4.47 3.97 108 96
Will Smith 163.7 732 12.7% 7.6% .295 4.95 4.76 120 115
Kelvin Herrera 77.3 328 21.3% 6.4% .297 3.72 3.41 90 82
Aaron Crow 64.0 276 23.9% 9.1% .294 3.80 3.58 92 87
Tim Collins 69.3 303 29.4% 12.5% .295 3.76 3.50 91 85
Louis Coleman 71.7 310 25.2% 10.6% .276 4.02 4.25 97 103
Ervin Santana 178.3 786 16.8% 7.9% .285 5.05 5.11 122 124
Luke Hochevar 156.7 690 16.4% 7.4% .296 5.06 4.55 122 110
Danny Duffy 81.0 362 19.6% 9.9% .296 4.78 4.68 116 113
Bruce Chen 141.3 622 15.8% 6.9% .291 5.03 4.80 122 116
Luis Mendoza 134.3 607 11.5% 8.2% .298 5.02 4.85 122 117
Everett Teaford 83.3 373 14.7% 8.6% .290 5.08 5.06 123 123
Francisley Bueno 63.0 277 13.4% 7.9% .285 4.57 4.51 111 109
Guillermo Moscoso 135.3 608 15.0% 8.2% .293 5.32 5.28 129 128
Donnie Joseph 62.0 285 18.9% 12.6% .304 4.79 4.61 116 112
Nathan Adcock 107.3 494 10.9% 8.5% .311 5.37 4.80 130 116
John Lamb 25.0 116 12.1% 9.5% .306 5.76 5.62 139 136
Dan Wheeler 45.7 203 14.8% 8.4% .284 4.93 4.82 119 117
Brian Sanches 53.7 241 14.5% 8.7% .287 5.03 5.14 122 125
Doug Davis 78.0 361 12.7% 10.2% .304 5.54 5.20 134 126
Yordano Ventura 97.3 449 16.0% 11.1% .295 5.64 5.78 137 140
Juan Gutierrez 30.0 136 16.2% 8.8% .298 5.70 5.53 138 134
Roman Colon 41.3 191 12.6% 11.0% .292 5.44 5.42 132 131
Michael Mariot 99.0 454 10.8% 9.0% .291 5.73 5.76 139 139
Jose Jimenez 59.3 282 12.4% 12.1% .305 6.07 5.76 147 139
Atahualpa Severino 44.0 219 14.2% 16.0% .315 6.55 6.21 159 150
Ryan Verdugo 101.0 487 14.8% 15.0% .290 6.24 6.43 151 156
Jason Adam 121.0 549 11.5% 7.5% .286 6.17 6.28 149 152
Chris Volstad 165.3 766 11.6% 7.2% .319 6.04 5.16 146 125
Noel Arguelles 99.3 490 7.8% 14.3% .294 6.80 6.91 165 167
Chris Dwyer 120.0 591 11.8% 15.4% .288 6.98 7.22 169 175

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ WAR No. 1 Comp
James Shields 208.0 7.92 2.29 1.21 100 3.2 Javier Vazquez
Jeremy Guthrie 163.7 5.61 2.47 1.32 93 1.9 Jay Witasick
Wade Davis 153.3 6.99 3.29 1.17 95 1.9 Bob Walk
Greg Holland 73.0 11.34 3.95 0.74 128 1.2 Jim Kern
Felipe Paulino 88.7 8.42 3.65 1.01 92 0.9 Luke Hudson
Will Smith 163.7 5.11 3.08 1.15 83 0.8 Mike Jeffcoat
Kelvin Herrera 77.3 8.15 2.45 0.93 110 0.8 Chris Britton
Aaron Crow 64.0 9.28 3.52 0.98 108 0.7 Trevor Hoffman
Tim Collins 69.3 11.56 4.94 1.04 109 0.7 Mitch Williams
Louis Coleman 71.7 9.79 4.14 1.38 102 0.7 Brad Lidge
Ervin Santana 178.3 6.66 3.13 1.62 81 0.6 Richard Dotson
Luke Hochevar 156.7 6.49 2.93 1.26 81 0.6 Richard Dotson
Danny Duffy 81.0 7.89 4.00 1.33 86 0.6 Carlos Hernandez
Bruce Chen 141.3 6.24 2.74 1.46 82 0.6 Paul Splittorff
Luis Mendoza 134.3 4.69 3.35 1.07 82 0.5 Julian Tavarez
Everett Teaford 83.3 5.94 3.46 1.40 81 0.1 Dennis Powell
Francisley Bueno 63.0 5.29 3.14 1.00 90 0.1 Chad Zerbe
Guillermo Moscoso 135.3 6.05 3.33 1.60 77 0.0 Chad Durbin
Donnie Joseph 62.0 7.84 5.23 1.02 86 -0.1 Scott Wiggins
Nathan Adcock 107.3 4.53 3.52 1.01 77 -0.1 Mark Cahill
John Lamb 25.0 5.04 3.96 1.44 71 -0.1 Craig Swan
Dan Wheeler 45.7 5.91 3.35 1.38 83 -0.1 Terry Mathews
Brian Sanches 53.7 5.87 3.52 1.51 82 -0.2 Terry Mathews
Doug Davis 78.0 5.31 4.27 1.15 74 -0.2 Mark Langston
Yordano Ventura 97.3 6.66 4.62 1.66 73 -0.3 Oscar Munoz
Juan Gutierrez 30.0 6.60 3.60 1.80 72 -0.4 Julio Manon
Roman Colon 41.3 5.23 4.58 1.31 75 -0.4 Paphlagonian Liver
Michael Mariot 99.0 4.45 3.73 1.55 72 -0.6 Kevin Ryan
Jose Jimenez 59.3 5.31 5.16 1.37 68 -1.0 Jason Hill
Atahualpa Severino 44.0 6.34 7.16 1.43 63 -1.0 Danny Young
Ryan Verdugo 101.0 6.42 6.50 1.69 66 -1.1 Terry Wells
Jason Adam 121.0 4.69 3.05 2.08 67 -1.2 Aaron Laffey
Chris Volstad 165.3 4.85 2.99 1.47 68 -1.4 Brian Powell
Noel Arguelles 99.3 3.44 6.34 1.54 60 -1.7 Sebern Wright
Chris Dwyer 120.0 5.25 6.83 1.95 59 -2.4 Tom Singer

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.





 

Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

46 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Caveman Jones
13 years ago

Didn’t realize Shields had given up so many HRs in his career until I saw that ZiPS had him projected to give up 28 next year. Boy is he going to miss everything about Tampa Bay.

0
Bill
13 years ago
Reply to  Caveman Jones

Maybe, he’s got some Home/Road splits for sure, but Kauffman stadium isn’t bad for pitchers, and he surely won’t miss going to Fenway, NY, Rogers Centre or Baltimore 6-8 times a year. The Cell could be a nightmare for him, but Detroit, Target Field and CLE shouldn’t be bad…

2
Caveman Jones
13 years ago
Reply to  Bill

Maybe, last year his HR home/road split wasn’t that huge, but it has been for his career. He’ll miss the trop not only because of HRs but because of the defense he’s been accustomed to playing in front of all those years (easily number one in UZR from 08-12).

1
Mace
13 years ago
Reply to  Caveman Jones

I wonder how much of that stat is directly related to pitching against the Yankees and Red Sox more than he faced any other team over the past few years. NYY and BOS were in the top 3 in AL HRs from 2009-2011. Last year in the AL, the bottom three teams in HRs were Central division teams. If I were a betting man, I’d take the under if it’s set at 28 for 2013. (He gave up 25 in 227.2 IP last year)

0
Glorpo
13 years ago
Reply to  Mace

HR rate as calculated HR/PA versus AL East (all 20+ starts):

Yankees: 3.79%
Red Sox: 3.29%
Blue Jays: 4.38%
Orioles: 2.54%

Career versus MLB: 3.05%

Interesting thing to note looking at his B-R splits page; his career tOPS+ versus Chi, Cle, Min, & Det are 125, 113, 108, & 104 respectively. Something to keep in mind considering he is also going to be pitching in front of a much lesser defensive team. His home runs will likely go down, but his overall results will likely heavily degrade.

1
rbt
13 years ago
Reply to  Caveman Jones

Kauffman Stadium is just as tough on home runs as The Trop is, and, in many years, more so.

0
KCDaveInLA
13 years ago
Reply to  Caveman Jones

I believe the same positive effect of Kauffman expanse + above-average outfield defense that worked well for Guthrie will pay dividends to Shields as well.

0
Bob
13 years ago
Reply to  Caveman Jones

I don’t think he’s going to miss everything about Tampa Bay. Shields will have a solid defense behind him and Kaufman Stadium is quite possibly the worst home run park in baseball. ESPN did a program about the lack of homers hit in that stadium. It’s not like his home runs allowed are going to skyrocket.

0
Paul Clarke
13 years ago

Is that WAR figure for Billy Butler correct? He’s projected at 0.354 wOBA and 3.8 WAR, whereas last year he had 0.377 wOBA and 3.2 WAR, so his hitting is going to get worse but he’s going to get significantly more valuable? The difference in wOBA over 660 PAs amounts to a drop of about 7 runs; even if we assume that you’re not including his usual -6 runs for base running the result should be around 3.1, and if you include base running it’ll be closer to 2.5.

0
Dan Szymborski
13 years ago
Reply to  Paul Clarke

It’s likely that FG uses a different DH baseline that I do, plus, it doesn’t have the -3 runs that last year’s WAR had from his 1B play.

I have DH equal to 1B. While it’s an easier job defensively, there’s also good evidence that it’s a little harder to hit as a DH than as an actual fielder – if you look at same season players in history with 150 games played in a season (to try and eliminate most of the injured guys), they have hit worse collectively DHing than playing the field.

0
Dan Szymborski
13 years ago
Reply to  Dan Szymborski

I have Butler in front of me now. In Butler’s projected playing time, I have a league-average hitter in KC at 77 runs created and a replacement-level 1B/DH in KC at 65 runs created. I have Butler at 102 runs created, or 37 runs above replacement.

0
Paul Clarke
13 years ago
Reply to  Dan Szymborski

Thanks. Fangraphs, I believe, uses Tango’s position adjustment of -17.5 for DH, so if you’re using something closer to -12.5 and not including base running the 3.8 WAR makes sense.

0
tj
13 years ago

Ervin Santana with a worse projection than Hochevar, Chen or Smith? That’s insane!

2
Matt
13 years ago

Seems like a pretty conservative projection for Gordon.

0
hawkinscm
13 years ago
Reply to  Matt

Indeed it seems very conservative. But on the other hand, he’s probably the only hitter that I think ZiPs is pessimistic on. Everything else sounds about right – which means this team is going to be kinda bad.

Add in the pitching, which is close to what I would expect on most pitchers, and yeah, this isn’t a .500 team. I do think Mendoza is better than his projection, but the Royals have already designated him for bullpen duty so that Hochevar can start. Also, Duffy’s projection is bad, but if he gets healthy I think it’s obvious that he’s better than Hochevar.

1
Paul
13 years ago
Reply to  hawkinscm

This just recognizes the reality that all the offseason mythology has skewed: the Royals offense was crap last year. A perpetual and quite intentional problem by the front office, is that the offense contains 5-7 absolute hackers and two or three legit guys. But no team runs a hacktastic offense on purpose without having at least one MVP caliber hitter in the middle. They just plain don’t get on base enough. Gordon/Butler just cannot consistently bail out the other seven guys who would not take a pitch if their families were being held hostage.

0
GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat
13 years ago

I hope for the sake of Royals fans that both Hosmer and Moustakas take a giant leap forward this year. Otherwise, this is yet another 90-loss team.

1
Antonio Bananas
13 years ago
Reply to  GlennBraggsSwingAndMissBrokenBat

I wouldn’t say 90 loss. Not in that awful division.

0
Brandon Warne
13 years ago

“Paphlagonian Liver”

You made up that name.

2
Aaron (UK)
13 years ago
Reply to  Brandon Warne

No he didn’t, he was a team-mate of Spartan Appendix.

2
gore51Member since 2020
13 years ago

Ervin Santana and Luke Hochevar are both future Richard Dotsons
Dan Wheeler and Brian Sanches are both future Terry Mathews

Is this a typo, or do both sets of players both have the same #1 comp and listed sequentially by 2013 projected WAR? If it’s just a coincidence, that’s pretty amazing.

1
Ziggy
13 years ago

The projections for Salvador Perez seem very conservative – especially the playing time. If anyone on the Royals has a shot at hitting .300+, wouldn’t it be him? He seems primed for a huge breakout year.

Also interesting: Moustakas, Hosmer, & Escobar are all projected to have similar Runs & Hits totals. If Escobar isn’t leading off, then how will he possibly produce at the same level of Hosmer & Moose? Both H&M should produce a LOT more power while hitting in the heart of the lineup. Seems too high on Escobar or too low for Hosmer & Moustakas, no?

0
gore51Member since 2020
13 years ago
Reply to  Ziggy

Playing time? He has a projected 473 PA, only 12 catchers in the league got more than that last year, and that’s including guys like Jesus Montero, Ryan Doumit, and Joe Mauer who all spent a majority of their PA playing elsewhere (or DHing).

1
hawkinscm
13 years ago
Reply to  Ziggy

How will Escobar produce at Hosmer and Moose’s level? Fairly easily I would think. As long as he doesn’t get too much worse.

0
BobbyS
13 years ago
Reply to  Ziggy

Other than Butler, it looks like Perez does have the best shot at hitting .300+, but that isn’t to say his mean projection (not necessarily prediction) should be over .300.

0
Paul
13 years ago
Reply to  BobbyS

Exactly. If it was expressed as a prediction interval, .300 would easily fall within the range.

0
Mac
13 years ago
Reply to  Ziggy

Perez is interesting. He’s pegged as a 3 WAR player in just 473 AB’s, yet his best comp is Bengie Molina, a guy with a career high of 2.4 WAR over a full season.

0
playingwithfire
13 years ago

Love the Butler/Sweeney comp

1
Jimmy D
13 years ago
Reply to  playingwithfire

And Crow/Hoffman

0
Jimmy D
13 years ago

How could anyone project 382 PAs for Brandon Wood?!

-1
jda
13 years ago
Reply to  Jimmy D

Read the disclaimer and you’ll know how!

1
Michael
13 years ago

Does anyone else feel like Moustakas and Hosmer should be much better than this? Also, I feel like overall this is a little conservative across the board as far as projections go…that being said I still find the Myers/Odorizzi etc. for Shields/Davis trade embarassingly stupid. Even if Shields and Davis outperform this, Francoeur in RF is hilarious and wouldn’t Myers have probably provided the same upgrade in wins just by generating so many more runs than Francoeur?

-1
NATS Fan
13 years ago
Reply to  Michael

Sadly I agree. Frenchy should not be penciled in for any starting job in baseball. In fact, I think he should be competing for a 4th OF spot.

0
Baltar
13 years ago
Reply to  Michael

This is not conservative across the board as projections go. Adding Dan’s approximaton of wins for an all-replacement of 45 to the numbers in his depth chart yields 83. If my memory serves me correctly, that is higher than the same calculations for each of the Giants and A’s yielded. That’s pretty good company.
If Dan’s projections are in the ballpark, KC is a dark horse contender. Perhaps those universally ridiculed off-season moves weren’t so bad after all.

-1
Michael
13 years ago
Reply to  Baltar

Baltar…fair enough, but you are missing one of my main points…Are they actually better than they would have been if they had just replaced Frenchy with Myers? I feel like if these projections hold up, the answer is more than likely no.

0
Bob
13 years ago
Reply to  Baltar

Michael – regarding the Myers v. Frenchy question…I do think KC is better off having revamped the rotation and stuck with Frenchy for now. They have platoon options should he falter. And it’s not like Myers is guaranteed to come up to the big leagues and rake. Most projections I’ve seen for him aren’t anything better than a typical Frenchy season. Eventually, sure, Myers will PROBABLY be miles ahead of Frenchy…but we won’t know until he gets his shot.

On the other hand, their 1-2 pitchers from 2012 are now battling each other for the 5 spot in the rotation. That was the main area of need, and they did a great job overhauling the starting pitching. At some point you have to try to win at this level – prospect rankings be damned. If they want to keep some of these players around – Gordon, butler, Moose, Hosmer, etc., they need to show these guys they aren’t always going to be waiting til next year.

1
Atari
13 years ago

Trevor Hoffman, Brad Lidge and Mitch Williams comps in the bullpen. Sounds like a good bullpen.

0
Serious Sam
13 years ago

Surprised to see Alex Gordon projected for only 3.6 WAR after 6.9 and 5.9 WAR seasons and his age (29) for the entire 2013 season.

0
tb
13 years ago

How is Moustakas only +1 defensively when he was +16 in his first full season?

0
DoubleDave
13 years ago
Reply to  tb

I am wondering this also?? I am not quite sure how these numbers translate to how the defensive ratings usually are. AV/100 and so on, anyone have an idea what Moustakas will actually be? AV/85ish?

0
Adam S
13 years ago

Adding Dan’s approximaton of wins for an all-replacement of 45 to the numbers in his depth chart yields 83.

I’ve seen a comment like this in every projection thread. What’s the best way to get an estimate of wins given the ZIPS?

Obviously the 21st-25th players on a roster don’t contribute much, but given 10-12 players take up those spots is ignoring them right? Clearly we could improve on the rounded numbers on the black depth chart which yield +/- 2-3 wins in rounding error, a big deal when teams are tightly bunched. In fact adding up the depth chart players from the tables below, the Royals will produce only 35.9 WAR instead of 38 WAR.

0
SKob
13 years ago

No one complaining about Cain yet? I know there isn’t a huge history to go on, but he basically hit this projection last year after being injured for 4 months. So happy that this kid gets no love in fantasy circles. Can’t wait to draft him on every team I have!

0
SKob
13 years ago
Reply to  SKob

Oh and ‘Blech’ on the Reggie Williams comp. I don’t even care which Reggie Williams, just ‘pft’!

0
Ruki Motomiya
13 years ago

Frenchy will hopefully be platooned with Dyson, as Frenchy is actually okay hitting vs. lefties and Dyson is okay vs. righties. Combined, they’d make a decent player. And they did try it last year…

0
Dan
13 years ago

Any chance you would give a projection for Christian Colon?

0
RA Rowe
13 years ago

The absurdity of Luis Durango’s projected ISO is the only thing to like about him.

0