Ben and Sam answer listener emails about how players with criminal pasts should be treated and how much pitchers’ non-pitching skills matter.

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Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, will be released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Philadelphia Phillies. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Athletics / Giants / Nationals / Rangers.

Batters
Relative to the teams we’ve seen projected so far, Philadelphia appears to have more key players with relatively low playing-time projections. Chase Utley (450 PAs) and Ryan Howard (474 PAs), for example, will each make more than $15 million in 2013, and yet are forecast to make fewer than 500 plate appearances.

Also of note is how Carlos Ruiz, who led all Phillies in 2012 with a 5.5 WAR, will miss the season’s first 25 games (not accounted for in the projection below) due to a second positive amphetamine test. That will likely give Erik Kratz the starting job for April — although, after a 112 wRC+ and 1.4 WAR in just 157 plate appearances last season, Kratz projects to be more than mere replacement-level fodder.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Chicago White Sox organization ranked 30th on the Top 30 minor league systems list entering 2012 but this is a much improved system after a couple of solid drafts and a number of prospects took big steps forward in their development. It’s an organization on the rise.

#1 Courtney Hawkins (OF)

“He came out guns a blazing,” a talent evaluator said about Hawkins’ pro debut after being selected 13th overall in the 2012 amateur draft. The Texas teenager played at three levels and topped out in high-A ball, which is almost unprecedented for such an inexperienced player. I’m told even the White Sox underestimated how advanced he was and he should open 2013 back in the Carolina League (high-A). It wouldn’t be a shock if he ended up in double-A by the end of the season.

Despite all the excitement, Hawkins still has work to do at the plate. He needs to strengthen his pitch recognition, tighten his plate discipline and learn how to work counts. Standing 6’3” and weighing 220 lbs with good bat speed, Hawkins has plus power potential and is very athletic for his size, which should allow him to steal some bases.

The outfield prospect should be average or better in right field with a strong arm but, again, he’s still polishing his game and learning to take better routes to the ball. He played center field in high school and could fill in there at the big league level, if needed.

Hawkins is well known for doing a back flip on TV after being drafted by the White Sox but now it’s the organization that’s doing back flips over the young outfielder’s future in Chicago. As my contact stated, “Talent-wise, ability-wise, the sky is the limit for him.” Read the rest of this entry »

Former Texas high school star Courtney Hawkins famously performed a back flip after being drafted this past year. And now, it’s easy to see why: The Chicago White Sox top prospect has a lot to be excited about.

The 19-year-old [as of November] outfielder was drafted 13th overall in June and by the season‘s end, he was playing for High-A Winston-Salem. Prior to inking his contract, he was honored as the Texas High School Player of the Year. Hawkins talked about his introduction to professional baseball — and his athleticism — during the last week of this past season.

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David Laurila: Has it sunk in that you’re playing pro ball?

Courtney Hawkins: I’d say it’s like a dream. I’m still kind of shocked right now, playing in High-A. Everything is moving fast, but I like it. I like the speed of the game and I’m just out there playing ball and having fun.

Since I’ve been here — since I moved up — I’ve learned so much. You can tell the difference in the level of competition, so it’s a huge adjustment.

DL: When did you begin to realize you were going to be good enough to play professionally?

CH: It’s been my dream ever since I was a young kid. In a way, it was in my head then, but it really started sinking in around my freshman year of high school. That, or maybe my sophomore year.

When I was a freshman, I made the USA Team. I was a pitcher all the way up until my junior year. That’s when I switched over to being more of a hitter.

DL: You’ve been clocked in the low-90s. Were there discussions about your future position?

CH: With [Chicago], it was always, hands down, hitting. Other teams, it was pitching and hitting — some pitching — but with the White Sox, they told me it would be hitting.

DL: Which teams were interested in you as a pitcher? Read the rest of this entry »