2014 Draft Chat with Chris Crawford
| 3:46 |
: Opened things up early so everyone can get there questions in. Should be fun.
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| 3:56 |
: Alright, starting a few minutes early, but I got impatient. This is like Christmas for me, which I know is sad.
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| 3:56 |
Is it a mistake to not take Rodon at 1.1? |
| 3:57 |
: Three months ago, I would have said yes. Now, I don’t think so. The fastball command, the inconsistent third pitch and the high pitch counts all trouble me, and now come word that he’s asking for $6 million. I’d rather have Aiken.
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| 3:57 |
What do you think the Diamondbacks do? Seems like they’re all over the place. |
| 3:58 |
: They are all over the place. They’re in on Tyler Beede; but I think they’d prefer a bat like Michael Chavis or Bradley Zimmer. Whomever they take, he’ll be gritty.
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| 3:58 |
Do you think Braxton Davidson could fall to the Brewers at 41 overall? Do you he’s sign for slot or would they have to go over? Thanks. |
| 3:59 |
: I think you’d probably have to go over-slot at that point, but ya, I do think there’s a chance he gets there because of his inconsistent spring. Would be a quality addition.
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| 3:59 |
I realize you should never draft for need, but with how thin their pitching is, how many pitchers could the Indians take today? |
| 4:00 |
: I think you see at least one, possibly two. Hearing more prep bats on them though like Michael Chavis and Monte Harrison.
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| 4:00 |
Why are you so low on Kodi Medeiros? Guy’s stuff is sick. |
| 4:00 |
What is you impression of Kodi Medeiros’ ceiling. I’ve seen one comment giving him the best upside among HS arms after Toussaint, with the acknowledgement that he may end up in the bullpen. |
| 4:01 |
: Lots of questions on Medeiros. I have two concerns: 1. He’s 6’0 tall 2. He throws side arm. I think he could be death to left-handed hitters, but I have real doubts about whether he can start.
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| 4:01 |
Don?t think Hoffman drops to SF? |
| 4:02 |
: There’s a chance, but it’ll depend on the Blue Jays. I think they take him, though.
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| 4:02 |
Am I the worst drafting GM in baseball? |
| 4:02 |
: Sadly, no, you are not.
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| 4:02 |
The Mariners tend to go with high floor prospects with their early picks (Peterson, Zunino, Hultzen, etc.) yet they’ve been linked to Alex Jackson who seems more volatile. Do you think Jackson has a high floor as a high schooler? Is such a thing possible with HS players? |
| 4:03 |
: Depends on your definition of “high floor” but both Jackson and Nick Gordon have relatively high floors for prep hitters. I think they’d prefer a college bat, but, there just isn’t a lot there.
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| 4:04 |
If Kolek falls to the Phillies at 7, how do they pass that up? |
| 4:04 |
: I think they’d consider him — and to be fair I haven’t had a chance to talk to many with the Phillies about him because the assumption was he’d be long gone — but I think they prefer the collegiate route this year. I think he’d be a relative steal in that range.
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| 4:05 |
picking at the end is tough to gauge, but what is the best case scenario for the red sox tonight |
| 4:05 |
: I think the best case scenario is one of the Tommy John arms like Fedde or Hoffman fall to them and they take an upside bat at 33 like a Harrison or Marcus Wilson. Worst case would be if they reach for Casey Gillaspie or AJ Reed.
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| 4:06 |
Who do you think the Mets end up getting? Could Conforto fall to them? |
| 4:06 |
: I think they would love Sean Newcomb to fall to them but I don’t think that’s happening. If Chicago passes on Conforto, then I think he’s in play and the likely pick.
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| 4:07 |
why is Gatewood falling down the board? |
| 4:07 |
: I’m higher on Gatewood than the industry is. There’s plus-plus power in his right handed bat. Teams have two big concerns though: is the hit tool good enough? And can he stick at shortstop. A lot of teams think the answer to both is no, which is why he may not get drafted at all today.
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| 4:08 |
Did last years draft have better overall 1st round talent? |
| 4:08 |
: The pitching is better in 2014, the hitting — sadly (again) — is much better in 2013. I give a slight edge to 2013, which is really disappointing.
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| 4:09 |
Where would a kid like Amed Rosario fit in this draft? |
| 4:09 |
: I think he’d be a first-round pick. Not sure how high, but he’d go today.
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| 4:10 |
What’s the best evidence that skill rather than luck plays a larger role in drafting future MLB starters (outside of the top 5 annual picks)? |
| 4:10 |
: Luck plays a huge part in it. Always has, always will. Luck is also about opportunity meeting preparation, and teams that use the process correctly usually end up pretty darn good.
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| 4:11 |
First prep arm to reach the majors? |
| 4:11 |
: I think Grant Holmes might be, just because there’s so little projection left. Could be Aiken though, easily.
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| 4:11 |
Easiest skills for pitchers to improve? Can it be generalized? |
| 4:13 |
: Great question, and I don’t think it can be. In terms of individual pitches, I think it’s easier to teach a change than a breaking-ball. Obviously command is a hard thing to teach, though you get a kid in your system young enough you can fix some things. That’s a really good question.
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| 4:13 |
Where can I (we) find the total draft pool money available to each team? |
| 4:13 |
| 4:13 |
Touki Toussaint, reliever or star? Have to chose one. |
| 4:14 |
: Ugh, just one? I’ll go reliever. But I think he ends up in between. Lots of talent, but lots of volatility.
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| 4:14 |
How much does IQ effect draft position, especially with pitchers? Do you think a higher IQ makes minor league players more “coachable”? |
| 4:15 |
: Absolutely. These kids have some bad, bad habits to break, so if they’re willing to work/understand coaching, it can move the process exponentially quicker. You can’t teach talent, though.
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| 4:15 |
Would Davidson be a good pick for Boston at the end of round 1 (or the supplemental round)? |
| 4:15 |
: I think he’d be a fantastic pick in that range, and someone they’d consider if he’s still on the board.
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| 4:16 |
http://image.cdnllnwnl.xosn… Did Nola fix this? |
| 4:17 |
: If we’re talking about the arm slot, then no. But the command is so good and his arm is so quick that I’m not sure it’s as big a deal as for someone like Medeiros.
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| 4:17 |
There is no way Rodon gets past the Cubs (assuming he somehow makes it past Lor… the Marlins) right? Even if they offer him a few 100,000 overslot and only go to ~5 million, he’s not going back to school over $1 million… right? |
| 4:18 |
: Would be very surprised if he’s still on the board after the Cubs pick. Very, very surprised.
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| 4:18 |
When the White Sox drafted Chris Sale, he threw less than 20 innings in the minors.. If they wanted to be aggressive with one of Nola or Rodon, do you think either player is capable of handling that? |
| 4:18 |
: I think Nola has a real chance to move quickly through the system because of the command. Rodon, not so much.
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| 4:18 |
What MLB projection do you have on Feede? Thanks |
| 4:19 |
: I think Fedde has the stuff to be a No. 2, but there’s a chance he’s a reliever with his arm action. I wouldn’t take him in the first round this year, personally, not after Tommy John.
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| 4:19 |
Name one or two value bats that fans should be excited about towards the end of round 1. |
| 4:20 |
: I have long been a fan of Derek Fisher (no, not the point guard), and think he could have a plus power and hit tool. I also think if Derek Hill falls past 20 he becomes a steal; there are four real tools there and he can be a quality defender in center right now.
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| 4:20 |
åny chance Alex Jackson falls into the clutches of my Phightless Phillies? |
| 4:21 |
: If I had to give a percentage, I’d say there’s about a 33 percent chance he’s still on the board.
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| 4:21 |
Lohse and Hudson and Buehrle are all finesse “control artists.” Is the reason we don’t see these types of pitchers being drafted is b/c amateurs don’t have these skills? |
| 4:22 |
: Correct, you just don’t see amateurs show plus-plus command very option. Aiken doesn’t have that YET, but he’s on his way, which is why he’s such a special prospect.
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| 4:22 |
Who is likely to be quickest to the majors this year? |
| 4:23 |
: I don’t think anyone reaches this year, but if someone was going to, it’d be Nick Burdi. 80 fastball, 60 slider, good enough command to get hitters out right now.
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| 4:23 |
IF Rodon falls to the Whote Sox at 3, do they take him? Or is Boras still an issue with them? |
| 4:23 |
: Not sure if it’s entirely Boras, but they don’t appear to be in on him at this point.
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| 4:24 |
Isn’t it obvious that teams undervalue the value of the sandwich picks? The Marlins made a terrible deal with theirs. |
| 4:24 |
: Cheap organizations do.
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| 4:24 |
Craziest thing you think could happen, such as a team picking someone really out of the blue |
| 4:25 |
: Tough to say because it really isn’t out of the blue. Something tells me the Phillies might do something nutty though.
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| 4:25 |
Pieces that I have read are saying that the Indians could look at one of the pitchers who fell because of TJ surgery at 21. How concerned should one be about them returning to form or having future elbow problems? |
| 4:26 |
: Pretty darn concerned. Tommy John is not perfect, and the injury has a nasty habit of rearing its ugly head again. In a deeper draft, I don’t think there’s anyway they go in the first round.
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| 4:26 |
Any reason to be excited about Conforto at 1.4? Doesn’t seem like he’s the BPA there. |
| 4:27 |
: I think it’d be a mistake. Below-average defender, not a ton of upside. Nice player, but not not the fourth pick in a draft.
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| 4:27 |
How high can Wall go? Chances he is available at 28? |
| 4:27 |
: I’ve heard him in play with the Mets at 10, the Royals at 17 and the Cardinals at 27. There’s a chance he makes it through that gauntlet though, absolutely.
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| 4:28 |
Will Freeland or Fedde drop to the Red Sox at #26? |
| 4:28 |
: Doesn’t sound like it. Fedde has a better chance than Freeland, but the Nationals seem to like him a ton.
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| 4:28 |
If Gordon is off the board, who do you see the Twins selecting? |
| 4:29 |
: I think they take Kolek if he’s off the board. The rich get richer, either way. In the farm system, anyway.
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| 4:29 |
Would Bryant and Gray have gone ahead of anyone in this class? |
| 4:29 |
: Absolutely they would have.
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| 4:30 |
I’ve seen some places comment that Mac Marshall could have #2 upside, but even there I see him ranked in the 45-55 range on the big board. Do you agree with that upside, and what’s holding him back? |
| 4:30 |
: I think it’s closer to a No. 3. Stuff was extremely inconsistent this year. Should go today, but riskier than teams thought he was this summer.
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| 4:30 |
I’ve heard people say the Royals are definitely taking a pitcher, and other saying they will definitely take a hitter. Any feel for who’s right? |
| 4:30 |
: America. America is right.
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| 4:31 |
: No, I’ve heard more bats attached than arms, but I think if someone like Touki fell to them, they’d go that route.
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| 4:31 |
If I told you Conforto would make multiple All Star appearances, would that surprise you, or not a shocking outcome for ceiling? |
| 4:31 |
: Yeah, that’d surprise me.
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| 4:32 |
Best name in the draft? |
| 4:32 |
: Handsome Monica and it’s NOT CLOSE.
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| 4:32 |
Where in the world did the Schwarber hype come from? He’s probably stuck at 1B |
| 4:33 |
: I really don’t know. He’s an interesting prospect, but this top 10 talk is pretty bizarre to me.
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| 4:34 |
What skill(s) do you find personally most important when evaluating the potential of a player at this stage? |
| 4:34 |
: For pitchers: Velocity, ability to repeat delivery, feel for pitching
For hitters; bat speed is huge, as is the ability to hit the other way. |
| 4:35 |
What are you looking forward to the most in this year’s draft? |
| 4:36 |
: I’m really excited to see if a certain someone who will be covering the draft will like every pick. My guess: yes.
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| 4:36 |
I heard quite a few people earlier in the year say that Rodon would have been 1-1 in the 2013 Draft. Now that his stock has fallen where would you have put him? |
| 4:36 |
: He’s No. 2 on my board. And he absolutely would have been the top pick in the 2013 draft. A shame that he wasn’t eligible.
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| 4:36 |
Is the hit tool the biggest question mark on Nick Gordon’s scouting report? |
| 4:37 |
: I think the overall offensive upside is his biggest question. I think he’s got a plus hit tool, and he has deceptive power, but industry doesn’t completely agree.
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| 4:37 |
What is the earliest you could see Burdi going? |
| 4:37 |
: 15 to the Angels. Which would be so unbelievably bad that it hurts my head thinking about it.
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| 4:37 |
How long until teams can trade picks for mlb players? |
| 4:38 |
: Should have been years and years ago.
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| 4:38 |
: Lots of people asking about my top three-five. My mock is available on www.mlbdraftinsider.com.
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| 4:38 |
Seems like plate discipline is hard to teach, but seems to me that teams don’t prioritize it? Do they, or is it hard to scout? |
| 4:39 |
: It’s very hard to teach, and bad teams don’t prioritize it at all. The good ones see it though. Really with prep kids you’re looking at pitch recognition, which can lead to plate discipline, hopefully.
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| 4:40 |
Does Beede get to the Pirates? If he does, do they gladly take him? |
| 4:40 |
: I think he might, and I think they’d take him. I don’t think he’s a huge steal though. That command is so inconsistent.
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| 4:40 |
What are the reasons for Kolek’s supposed fall? Have the top 5 teams learned anything new (like demand, injury) or have they simply soured on him? |
| 4:41 |
: I think it has to do with concern about upside, kind of like Gordon. There’s no physical projection left at all.
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| 4:41 |
Do you know of any prospects that have refused to deal with the phillies because of the NCAA reporting last year? |
| 4:42 |
: Nope, it doesn’t appear to have had the huge effect many (me) thought it would. Still early in the process though. And boy should they be ashamed of themselves.
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| 4:42 |
I knew Monte Harrison was a great athlete, but John Manuel said he was about the same level as Bubba Starling coming out of high school. Would you put him on that level? |
| 4:42 |
: With all due respect, no I would not.
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| 4:42 |
If Jackson is not the pick at No. 6, is it another collegiate arm for Seattle? |
| 4:43 |
: I think so, with Newcomb being the most likely.
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| 4:43 |
Would teams value the sandwich picks more if they got an actual sandwich on draft day with the pick? |
| 4:43 |
: I needed that. Thank you.
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| 4:43 |
Prospect that, in five years, you’ll say to your friends “I told you so.” |
| 4:44 |
: My friends hate baseball, but I really feel like I’ll be telling some scouts “I told you!” on Holmes. If he’s not the third prep pitcher taken, it’s a mistake.
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| 4:45 |
Fenway Parks is my favorite name in the draft. http://www.perfectgame.org/… |
| 4:45 |
: How great would it be if that guy gets drafted by the Yankees?
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| 4:45 |
Where would Mike Matuella go if eligible? #1? top 5, top 10? undrafted? |
| 4:45 |
: I think he’d go top five, possibly 1.1. I haven’t seen him in person yet? But reports are very, very good.
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| 4:46 |
What are Orioles fans thinking during this draft? |
| 4:46 |
: Heat 104, Spurs 98.
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| 4:46 |
What’s your opinion on drafting for need rather than taking best available? |
| 4:47 |
: It’s how bad organizations stay bad. You just can’t draft for need. You can fill organizational depth later — and if it fills a need, great — but you have to take the best player on your board.
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| 4:47 |
Does the compensation pick attached to Morales go away immediately as the draft starts or after? |
| 4:47 |
: Boy that’s a good question. I think it starts as soon as the draft starts, but, I don’t think we have anything to worry about.
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| 4:47 |
If it were possible to trade picks, who would be trying everything they could to trade down? |
| 4:48 |
: As good as Aiken is, I think the Astros. The White Sox probably, too.
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| 4:49 |
Any top players that could slide due to contract demands, like Appel 2 years ago? |
| 4:49 |
: I don’t think so, kind of a weird year in terms of that. It’s kind of nice to see, really.
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| 4:49 |
When all is said and done who from this draft do you think will have the highest career WAR? |
| 4:49 |
: WAR? Ew. Nerds.
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| 4:50 |
: Had to be done. I think it’ll actually be Gordon, just because of the defensive value. Could be Aiken though, for certain.
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| 4:50 |
Where would Lewis Thorpe (18 year old Australian in MN system) go in this draft? |
| 4:50 |
: Probably not today, but probably not around for very long on Friday.
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| 4:51 |
Any skills you feel are being currently undervalued in the draft? |
| 4:51 |
: Plate discipline is one, particularly on the college side. Defense has and always will be undervalued as well.
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| 4:51 |
Do you think there are any legitimate ace upside arms? |
| 4:52 |
: I think both Rodon and Aiken can be there. Kolek a non-zero chance.
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| 4:52 |
I like Nola more than Rodon, am I nuts? |
| 4:53 |
: Nope, not nuts. I get it. I’ll still take Rodon’s chance to be special, though. Nola at his very best is a quality No. 3. Rodon could be a true ace, assuming his college coach didn’t ruin him with work and the fastball command is where it was as a sophomore.
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| 4:53 |
In terms of talent, where would you say the big drop off is in this draft? |
| 4:54 |
: I think the biggest drop is after the “big four” of Aiken, Rodon, Gordon and Kolek.
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| 4:54 |
What future grade would you give Gordon’s defense! |
| 4:54 |
: 60, maybe 65. He can really pick it.
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| 4:55 |
As someone who does not often pay attention to the MLB Draft, what should I be looking for? |
| 4:55 |
: All the pretty colors and cliches.
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| 4:55 |
Would you rather have the 9 & 11 picks in this years draft like the jays, or the #1 pick like the Astros? |
| 4:56 |
: The 1. In a good draft the 9 and 11. But this year I’d rather have Aiken over say…Turner and Toussaint.
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| 4:57 |
We’ve seen how sabermetrics has changed MLB rosters, how has it changed the draft? |
| 4:59 |
: I think it’s changed it to a lesser extent. Here’s how I view sabermetrics from a scouting standpoint. I think advance statistics are fantastic, but our job as scouts (consider me a scout for a second) is to figure out WHY these statistics are happening, and whether or not what they’re doing on the field is sustainable.
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| 4:59 |
: Well guys, I gotta get going, I have some responsibilities for ESPN that I have to take care of. Thank you so much for chatting with me. I’ll be doing live pick-by-pick analysis of the first round over on espn.com, and I’ll be live chatting through day one as well. Happy draft day!
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Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
I don’t know how Joey Pankake doesn’t win the name sweepstakes…
It’s not easy when you have to compete against Handsome Monica