2014 World Series Game One Live Blog
| 7:58 |
: It’s the World Series!
|
| 7:59 |
: Come hang out with Jeff and I. We promise jokes, and some analysis, and mostly fun.
|
| 8:04 |
NotGraphs live chat is going strong, you guys are slackers over here! |
| 8:05 |
: They have to get all their comments out before they die.
|
| 8:05 |
Cameron is promising fun and Cistulli is promising melancholy. Still don’t know which to choose |
| 8:06 |
: If the team you’re rooting for starts losing, melancholy is probably your best bet.
|
| 8:07 |
Predictions for Game 1? |
| 8:07 |
: World Series baseball!
|
| 8:07 |
: Bumgarner outpitches Shields, but Royals come back against SF bullpen.
|
| 8:08 |
Steemer projections have the Royals as almost 3:2 favorites – where would you put the line? |
| 8:08 |
: I’ll go with Bumgarner outpitches Shields, and the Royals almost come back against SF bullpen
|
| 8:08 |
: Probably about 54/46 KC. I don’t think the bullpen gap is as big as Steamer thinks.
|
| 8:09 |
: Pitch one looked like a strike to me, but okay.
|
| 8:10 |
: Wonder if anyone ever has swung at the first pitch of a World Series
|
| 8:10 |
: This seems like a thing you would wonder.
|
| 8:10 |
: Is everyone not wondering that?
|
| 8:10 |
: Two tight called balls already
|
| 8:10 |
Jeff: Best of the worst: first world series pitches |
| 8:10 |
: Small sample 🙁
|
| 8:11 |
: Wow, those positional overlays are… bright.
|
| 8:11 |
: Fly ball, Royals outfield, hit. It *is* possible
|
| 8:11 |
: Royals
|
| 8:12 |
: Royals
|
| 8:12 |
: Royals starter
|
| 8:12 |
: Jeff doesn’t want you to watch the game, only answer polls.
|
| 8:12 |
: Done with polls
|
| 8:13 |
I forgot that Omar Infante |
| 8:13 |
: Good thing Jake Smolinski isn’t in this game then.
|
| 8:13 |
: Playing hurt btw
|
| 8:13 |
: For multiple reasons, re: Smolinski
|
| 8:14 |
: Gregor Blanco seems like Royals material
|
| 8:14 |
: He was with them for a while, I believe.
|
| 8:14 |
: Because he’s a former Braves prospect, and that’s where former Braves prospects go.
|
| 8:14 |
: Came over with Jesse Chavez and Tim Collins. Fascinating trade in retrospect
|
| 8:15 |
: Score one for baserunner deterrence by Alex Gordon, although that was a pretty easy call
|
| 8:15 |
: Apparently Tim Lincecum is missing. Because why not.
|
| 8:15 |
: Almost literally no use for him in this series anyhow, with how slow he is to home
|
| 8:16 |
: But, good mystery!
|
| 8:16 |
: Why send Posey there?
|
| 8:16 |
: There’s only one out. He can score without a hit.
|
| 8:16 |
: The Giants score MOST of their runs without a hit
|
| 8:17 |
: Sandoval there, by the way: RBI double against a pitch out of the zone, low!
|
| 8:17 |
: Appropriate sequence. Bad-ball hit by Sandoval, weird SF baserunning, good KC defense
|
| 8:17 |
Jeff cares about which pitcher gets the W? Firable offence? |
| 8:17 |
: I don’t care about the win assignment, I just care how people feel the game is going to go
|
| 8:18 |
Jeff/Dave: Why don’t pitchers throw over a bunch as a stalling tactic when a reliever needs to get hot quickly? Pride? Fatigue? Do they actually do that often? |
| 8:19 |
: I wouldn’t be surprised if they actually do, among other things
|
| 8:19 |
: Decent actual analysis from Reynolds there.
|
| 8:19 |
: And decent swing from Hunter Pence.
|
| 8:19 |
does the audience get to participate in this chat? |
| 8:19 |
: You do!
|
| 8:19 |
Big Game James |
| 8:20 |
: That was a perfectly mashable fastball in the very center of the hitting zone
|
| 8:20 |
Posey could have scored here. |
| 8:20 |
: Giants hit one in front of Cain, one to Cain, and one beyond Cain
|
| 8:20 |
: Or Shields pitches differently with man on third and only one out.
|
| 8:21 |
: Those were some awful pitches to Pence.
|
| 8:21 |
: Tom Verducci doesn’t seem to understand much about game theory and pitch-sequencing. Been a qualm I’ve had with him all month
|
| 8:21 |
Don’t you get Duffy loose in the pen? Shields has only retired one batter on a deep fly ball. |
| 8:22 |
: Early performance isn’t predictive of future performance within a game, for the most part.
|
| 8:22 |
: Critical point to understand, that one
|
| 8:22 |
: This is pretty remarkable, though
|
| 8:22 |
: Seems like we’re not going to have to deal witth Yost sticking with Shields for too long tonight, though.
|
| 8:22 |
: That’s a changeup out of the zone, but Belt looked awful comfortable
|
| 8:23 |
: How much longer, honestly, can the Big Game nickname stick? It’s becoming laughable
|
| 8:23 |
CSNBaggs Andrew Baggarly No explanation from Giants on Lincecum absence. At time for intros, he wasn’t in clubhouse. They did not search back areas, bathrooms. |
| 8:23 |
Reynolds is noticeably better than he was a few years back. |
| 8:23 |
: I would think he’ll ask people to stop calling him that eventually.
|
| 8:24 |
: I’ve actually liked him a fair amount this month (Reynolds). Fairly valuable insight into stuff other people don’t often talk about
|
| 8:24 |
: He’s also something of a talking head, but he has to be. I like his presence more than I don’t
|
| 8:24 |
Kelvin Herrera’s new inning is about to be the 1st. |
| 8:24 |
: Olney says their bullpen is stirring.
|
| 8:25 |
: 3-1 and Morse chases a pitch at his toes.
|
| 8:25 |
: What is it stirring?
|
| 8:25 |
: Pretty lousy at-bat for Morse there.
|
| 8:25 |
That statement by Reynolds about the NL getting more fastballs (as a league!) is false though, right? |
| 8:26 |
: Ehh, Morse was going to get hurt running if he’d actually reached base
|
| 8:26 |
: It might be true if you include pitcher’s hitting, but take them out, and I don’t see it being true.
|
| 8:26 |
I am in Australia and have the MLB International feed featuring Rick Sutcliffe. He just said that “sometimes an overachiever gets tired of overachieving” and then went onto decry sabermetrics in the next sentence. |
| 8:27 |
: I’m glad to have FOX
|
| 8:27 |
: can’t believe I had reason to type that sincerely
|
| 8:27 |
: I loathe Rick Sutcliffe
|
| 8:27 |
Who is this Marlins fellow behind home plate? He sat there in ALCS too… |
| 8:27 |
This may be more suited for the NotGraphs chat, but what’s up with the guy behind home plate with the Marlins gear? He was there when KC got the pennant too |
| 8:27 |
| 8:27 |
True or false: Bumgarner is about to solidify his case for best playoff performer of his generation (pitching). |
| 8:28 |
: 67 postseason innings, 2.67 ERA. I mean, he’s been good and all, but let’s not get carried away.
|
| 8:28 |
wonder what Red Sox Front Office is thinking about Shields now |
| 8:29 |
“knows how to win” is my least favorite phrase in the history of phrases |
| 8:29 |
: Probably that he’s a good pitcher who’s pitched a lot
|
| 8:29 |
: It is the epitome of lazy analysis.
|
| 8:29 |
What happens when SF gets to Guthrie and Vargas? |
| 8:29 |
: They win the world series, probably
|
| 8:30 |
Does Shields come out for the 2nd? |
| 8:30 |
: Definitely.
|
| 8:30 |
: Giants win expectancy at 76%
|
| 8:30 |
: Wonder what that means for their World Series win expectancy. Up a few percentage points
|
| 8:30 |
Place your bets: first guy in the booth to say shutdown inning is… |
| 8:30 |
: I feel like that was a TBS thing? Maybe I’m wrong
|
| 8:31 |
: Yeah, that was TBS’ gig.
|
| 8:31 |
: they should loan Pedro to FOX for this
|
| 8:31 |
: And that was the equivalent of BABIP luck.
|
| 8:32 |
: equivalent, definition, same thing.
|
| 8:32 |
: That’s about as calm as a comebacker gets
|
| 8:32 |
: Unless, I guess, Cliff Lee
|
| 8:32 |
: Cliff Lee
|
| 8:32 |
: Did we ever talk about that anecdote?
|
| 8:33 |
: I don’t know.
|
| 8:33 |
: Lee, of course, was famously calm-looking as he handled the ball right back to him in the World Series
|
| 8:33 |
: The next spring, he was in camp with the Mariners, and the coaches made a point of saying, hey everyone, you should look at how composed Lee was last October. That’s a role model, for composing yourself on the field under pressure
|
| 8:34 |
: Lee raised his hand and said “actually I just about shit myself”
|
| 8:34 |
: That is a good anecdote.
|
| 8:34 |
: #sports #psychology
|
| 8:34 |
Dyson get a chance to start somewhere soon? |
| 8:34 |
: KC, probably.
|
| 8:35 |
: I think Cain is trying to pull the ball
|
| 8:35 |
: It’s not a “good battle” when you swing at a breaking ball that might have bounced if you hadn’t swung.
|
| 8:36 |
: And that, meanwhile, is the game’s calmest-ever HBP
|
| 8:36 |
Ok, that “Dayton Moore has made a lot of shrewd moves” was just to Cameron bait… |
| 8:36 |
: I ignored it.
|
| 8:37 |
BABIP luck is pretty much what it takes to win postseason, no? |
| 8:37 |
: What it takes to win, period
|
| 8:38 |
: Pitchers had a .253 BABIP in wins, .360 BABIP in losses
|
| 8:38 |
: You can’t hit a ball harder than that.
|
| 8:38 |
: Man.
|
| 8:38 |
: Holy cow
|
| 8:39 |
: Dave! Let’s pretend you work for Inside Edge
|
| 8:39 |
: What probability do you give that play of being made?
|
| 8:39 |
: 25%? It wasn’t that far into the gap, I don’t think.
|
| 8:40 |
: I was actually going to say roughly 50%, but I really don’t know
|
| 8:40 |
: Seems like Blanco had a bit of a curve to his route at the end. But he broke quick…
|
| 8:40 |
Need statcast! |
| 8:41 |
: I would assume we’ll get Blanco’s data on that play, but they haven’t given us any of the hitting metrics yet.
|
| 8:41 |
: I live in fear of the day we lose PITCHf/x because I don’t know what I’m going to do
|
| 8:41 |
: So we probably won’t know Hosmer’s exit velocity.
|
| 8:41 |
: I’m guessing 105-110mph
|
| 8:41 |
: Yeah, definitely north of 100.
|
| 8:41 |
: I’d love to know the agreement between HITf/x and the Home Run Tracker
|
| 8:42 |
: I don’t think Home Run Tracker uses HITF/x.
|
| 8:42 |
: I could be wrong.
|
| 8:42 |
: It doesn’t. I mean I’d like to know if the numbers are similar/the same
|
| 8:42 |
: But I think ESPN has their own calculations based on what Greg Rybarczyk setup originally.
|
| 8:42 |
: That is correct
|
| 8:42 |
: Oh, agreement as in correlation.
|
| 8:43 |
So heard on a Buster Olney podcast (I think), that Bumgarner was pitching in way more with his fastball this postseason. Is this just a small sample, more specific scouting of opponents, trying to change things up? |
| 8:43 |
: Good news! www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mad…
|
| 8:43 |
I know the Nationals broadcast was showing exit velocity quite a bit on their broadcasts this year, do that mean statcast was in place collecting data or something else? |
| 8:43 |
: The Nationals bought their own Trackman hardware.
|
| 8:44 |
Cards have exit velocity as well |
| 8:44 |
: Yeah, a few already had Trackman installed before MLBAM decided to do this.
|
| 8:44 |
Did the Nationals take it with them to AT&T, would love to have seen data on Harper vs Strickland |
| 8:45 |
: The system is installed in the park. They have a portable version, but from what I’ve heard, it’s not very good.
|
| 8:45 |
: ESPN Home Run Tracker thinks Harper hit the ball 114 mph off Strickland
|
| 8:45 |
: the first time. 100mph the second time
|
| 8:46 |
Sheesh, Shields is leaving a LOT of pitches up. |
| 8:46 |
: Location pitcher + bad location = duck.
|
| 8:46 |
His pitches haven’t been THAT high dave, they don’t need to duck. |
| 8:47 |
: I think he was trying to work Crawford up high a bit, for what that’s worth
|
| 8:47 |
: Might reconsider for next time, if he makes it to next time
|
| 8:47 |
This zone is really small tonight…. |
| 8:47 |
: Agree, this isn’t helping Shields’ case.
|
| 8:48 |
This may be dismissed, but should be less hard and fast about “excelling” and “struggling”. Wouldn’t a team have a mechanics expert watching things like Release Point,Posture,Balance,Consistency.. etc. that can see if something is off? |
| 8:49 |
: You mean like a hitting or pitching coach?
|
| 8:49 |
: Even pitching coaches will tell you that they usually can’t see that stuff live. That’s why they study slow-mo video.
|
| 8:49 |
: Sometimes you can’t even see it on video! Mechanical analysis is hard!
|
| 8:50 |
How many millions has James cost himself these playoffs? |
| 8:50 |
: Probably not very many
|
| 8:50 |
: Yeah, close to zero.
|
| 8:51 |
Is there ever a chance, especially like a player like Hosmer, that they have genuinely improved and our models are slow to pick it up? Especially with an elite prospect. I mean baseball is all about making adjustments and it seems like he has since his injury and the pitchers haven’t. I feel like we ignore it while a guy like Ryan Parker from BP could pick up on tangible change. |
| 8:51 |
: Models are slow to pick up genuine breakouts, but genuine breakouts are exceedingly rare
|
| 8:51 |
: Like, the models were slow on JD Martinez, but also Lonnie Chisenhall, and Chisenhall regressed super hard
|
| 8:52 |
“Big Game” doesn’t imply if he’s good in them or not. Just that he’s experienced them |
| 8:52 |
Do you think it’s fair to say that the Royals’ success is less sustainable because it’s based so much on defense, which peaks early? |
| 8:52 |
: I’d say it’s less sustainable because of the 81-81 baseruns record
|
| 8:53 |
: Wait, we can exit velocity on that?
|
| 8:53 |
: But not on the Hosmer out?
|
| 8:53 |
: Boooooo
|
| 8:54 |
: Blanco returned that ball to the infield quickly, making sure Butler would stay put. Aggressive runner
|
| 8:54 |
Any way to attack Gordon? |
| 8:54 |
: Make him face LHPs.
|
| 8:55 |
: Looks like Gordon struggles most up and away
|
| 8:55 |
| 8:56 |
What do you guys think is the worst commercial you’ve seen in this year’s playoffs? For me, it remains HEY CRAIG. |
| 8:56 |
: 50 minutes since first pitch, and we’re in the bottom of the 2nd, with one out.
|
| 8:56 |
: How could it not be Viagra? It’s Viagra.
|
| 8:57 |
: And then we get 2 outs in 10 seconds.
|
| 8:57 |
: That’s a pretty and very well-composed double play
|
| 8:57 |
: Three pitches to Perez, all well out of the zone, two swings and one broken-bat DP
|
| 8:58 |
: Perez has been not good for the Royals for a long time
|
| 8:58 |
Did you see Jeff Long’s article today suggesting hitters should be expecting a fastball up and in during every count from MadBum? |
| 8:58 |
: That’s his new thing for the time being
|
| 8:59 |
What’s in it for Fox to use Joe Buck for WS? Because he’s a familiar brand for NFL viewers or do they honestly think hes an improvement over someone who calls baseball full time? |
| 8:59 |
: I think he’s fine
|
| 8:59 |
: Voice + pedigree + emmy’s.
|
| 8:59 |
: He’s had some pretty great calls this month
|
| 9:00 |
: He’s not great, he’s not bad, he doesn’t say much that’s stupid and he’s self-aware with a sense of humor
|
| 9:00 |
Does it bother anyone else they stop showing regularseason stats after the division series? |
| 9:01 |
: Yes
|
| 9:01 |
Looks to me like both pitchers are leaving the ball up. |
| 9:01 |
: Bumgarner works up
|
| 9:01 |
: on purpose
|
| 9:01 |
What individual pitcher-batter matchup are you guys looking forward to the most? |
| 9:01 |
: Romo vs. Perez
|
| 9:02 |
: Davis/Sandoval would be fun too.
|
| 9:02 |
: Davis vs anybody, but yeah, definitely Sandoval and Pence
|
| 9:02 |
Even though the Royals are the favorites, the Giants have the favorable SP matchups in most of the games, right? |
| 9:02 |
: No. Their rotation after Bumgarner is bad.
|
| 9:02 |
: AT&T Park is super super super pitcher-friendly
|
| 9:03 |
And Guthrie/Vargas are good? |
| 9:03 |
: Better than Peavy and Vogelsong.
|
| 9:04 |
: There are three good starting pitchers in this series, and the Royals have two of them (Shields/Ventura).
|
| 9:04 |
: line out…line out…
|
| 9:05 |
: That ball is gone in warmer weather/smaller stadium?
|
| 9:05 |
: Not a 100% route efficiency for Cain there
|
| 9:05 |
: Three more well-hit balls in play for Shields. Kind of a miraculous 1-2-3
|
| 9:05 |
which baseball sites do y’all read? |
| 9:06 |
| 9:06 |
: Also hardballtimes.com
|
| 9:06 |
Can any of the Royals’ starting pitchers hit decently for the games in SF? |
| 9:06 |
: Vargas has some skill
|
| 9:07 |
Everyone seen MGL’s latest posts showing that even when a starting pitcher is dealing through most of the game, that has no extra predictive value going foward, based on real-world results? http://mglbaseball.wordpres… and http://mglbaseball.wordpres… |
| 9:07 |
: See: Clayton Kershaw, October 2014
|
| 9:07 |
: One of the five most important things to be learned about baseball: recent performance is almost always useless.
|
| 9:08 |
What are the other four? |
| 9:08 |
: I think I’ll make this an article, after the WS ends.
|
| 9:09 |
Crawford with the rare error! The rarerror! |
| 9:09 |
: Good pitches by Bumgarner, at least
|
| 9:09 |
: Pretty subtle when they’re cheering Moustakas or booing Moustakas
|
| 9:10 |
I would not want to sit behind the guy with the antlers |
| 9:10 |
: That’s a pretty great replay.
|
| 9:10 |
: Never seen that before
|
| 9:11 |
: calls for a #viral #gif
|
| 9:11 |
: Dan Brooks did a thing at Saber Seminar about having a ball stick to his hand after loading it up, but yeah, that was new.
|
| 9:11 |
: Moustakas goes out of the zone 3-and-1…
|
| 9:12 |
: That’s better
|
| 9:12 |
: Royals learn from Giants mistake, don’t send runner on a double to right.
|
| 9:12 |
How hard would it be to have a picture-in-picture showing the baserunner on a play like that? |
| 9:12 |
: I’d like that if they could do it without it being cluttered
|
| 9:13 |
Broken bat balls in play result in more errors? |
| 9:13 |
: I’m guessing fewer fielding errors, more throwing errors
|
| 9:14 |
: Escobar chasing pitches that aren’t close.
|
| 9:14 |
: He’s the pitcher in the lineup
|
| 9:14 |
: set him up for a low breaking ball, away
|
| 9:14 |
: They got Escobar out by throwing one pitch out of the zone over and over.
|
| 9:14 |
: or that
|
| 9:14 |
: That was atrocious.
|
| 9:15 |
: wow that sucked
|
| 9:15 |
: that’s the Mike Trout Strike-out!
|
| 9:15 |
: Miguel Olivo had it first.
|
| 9:15 |
: Olivo would’ve done it on fewer pitches
|
| 9:16 |
That 60-3 stat is funny. Breaking news: good pitchers often win when given a good lead. |
| 9:16 |
Does Bumgarner get an inordinate amount of hitters to swing at the first pitch or is that just Royals being aggressive? |
| 9:16 |
: Royals, aggressive
|
| 9:16 |
: They don’t strike out and there are a lot of reasons why
|
| 9:17 |
: Sometimes, though, they strike out.
|
| 9:17 |
: Batting order doesn’t matter much, until you blow a great chance to score because you hit Escobar and a lefty at the top of the order against Bumgarner.
|
| 9:17 |
: I forgot that Escobar was first and not last. Haha!
|
| 9:17 |
HP ump calling 3rd check swings has gotten out of control this year |
| 9:17 |
: 3B ump called that one.
|
| 9:18 |
: This camera angle gives me absolutely no hope of understanding where the pitches are
|
| 9:18 |
: Hey, a high fastball chased.
|
| 9:18 |
: Royals going way after that high fastball out of the zone
|
| 9:18 |
Doesnt Aoki hit lefties better then righties? |
| 9:18 |
: Reverse platoon splits are never real.
|
| 9:18 |
: I’ll make a note to write about this if patterns hold…
|
| 9:18 |
: Aoki and Ichiro, perhaps something there though
|
| 9:19 |
: Ichiro’s career reverse split is like 1.02, and he’s the most extreme.
|
| 9:19 |
Bumgarner just testing how high he can throw it and still get the Royals to swing |
| 9:19 |
: Yeah, I don’t believe in reverse splits, but I can believe in smaller splits than normal
|
| 9:19 |
: Well, yes. Opposite field hitters tend to have smaller splits than pull guys, I believe.
|
| 9:19 |
: Bumgarner here is an example of why high-leverage pitches are probably more taxing than ordinary pitches
|
| 9:20 |
: Good job, Lorenzo.
|
| 9:20 |
Bumgarner’s almost up to the same pitch count as Shields |
| 9:21 |
Is grunt microphone a new thing? |
| 9:21 |
: A terrible new thing.
|
| 9:21 |
: Great job by Cain salvaging that plate appearance
|
| 9:21 |
: The Royals do not have a good lineup
|
| 9:21 |
: Easy postgame narrative: Giants won the game in that inning.
|
| 9:23 |
Royals are supposed to be about small ball exectution no? |
| 9:23 |
: Tied for fourth in the AL in productive out rate!
|
| 9:23 |
: First in the AL in scoring runners from third with fewer than two out
|
| 9:24 |
Hosmer swinging at the first pitch there after Bumgarner had been all over the zone with the previous batter…..really? |
| 9:24 |
: Well, that was probably intentional, given that Cain is RH and first base was open.
|
| 9:25 |
: And Hosmer didn’t get a *bad* pitch to hit — cutter away. He just didn’t hit it
|
| 9:25 |
: Bumgarner: 34 fastballs, 13 sliders, six curves
|
| 9:25 |
: Shields: 34 fastballs, 10 cutters, seven curves, six changeups(!)
|
| 9:26 |
: Stat of the game for now: Shields has allowed one grounder, two fly balls, nine line drives
|
| 9:26 |
: Yikes.
|
| 9:26 |
: And that’s a line drive/grounder
|
| 9:27 |
I assume there’s no option to close the “Who’s going to win Game 1!” poll after the game starts? Funny to see the Giants percentage slowly increase. |
| 9:27 |
Big Blame James |
| 9:27 |
BUT NED YOST HAS FIGURED IT OUT!? |
| 9:27 |
: I still prefer Low Yields Shields.
|
| 9:27 |
: Yost has gotten smarter, but he also hasn’t faced many deficits like this lately
|
| 9:28 |
: It is somewhat easier to look smart when your team gets leads and your bullpen is amazing.
|
| 9:28 |
: Bad pitch by Shields, bad block by Perez
|
| 9:28 |
: The Royals have sucked so far.
|
| 9:28 |
: This is an important game to remind us of perspective
|
| 9:29 |
You might even say they’ve sucked Royally. |
| 9:29 |
So who do you bring in, Duffy? |
| 9:29 |
: You can’t play the long game here. You need to get Herrera warming to try and keep this lead at 3.
|
| 9:29 |
: My favorite Dave Cameron FanGraphs headline ever: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…
|
| 9:29 |
: But Yost has Duffy warming.
|
| 9:30 |
: Odd
2013 Herrera: 22% K-BB |
| 9:30 |
: Did not realize
|
| 9:31 |
: Another centered fastball.
|
| 9:32 |
: And here comes Duffy.
|
| 9:32 |
: Amazing to think what Shields’ playoff numbers would look like this month without the defense having bailed him out a few times
|
| 9:33 |
: Shields’ career playoff ERA up to 5.57, and he left a couple of runners here
|
| 9:34 |
Is this really him? He’s been horrible in all 4 starts I’ve seen (all playoff), can’t imagine a contender paying him ace money |
| 9:34 |
: Ace money is $150M-$200M+. He won’t get that. He’ll get durable innings eater money, $80Mish.
|
| 9:35 |
: Perez pinch-hitting with 4 run lead. I love this!
|
| 9:35 |
: Go Bruce Bochy.
|
| 9:35 |
: How many times, ever, are there pinch-hitters in the 4th inning?
|
| 9:35 |
: For non-injury reasons.
|
| 9:36 |
: And for non-pitchers
|
| 9:36 |
Um, couldn’t Ishikawa have done that, though? |
| 9:36 |
: That’s awesome.
|
| 9:36 |
: Perez now gets to play defense, which he can do.
|
| 9:36 |
: And Ishikawa is a first baseman in an enormous outfield
|
| 9:37 |
Really? You think Perez as a PH-bunter is a better play than Ishi vs. Duffy and Perez to replace him in the field in the bottom of the inning? |
| 9:37 |
: Ishikawa vs an LHP isn’t a good match-up.
|
| 9:37 |
: Shields, officially: two grounders, two flies, ten line drives. And one of the grounders was basically a liner
|
| 9:38 |
Nice of Shields to do his best to ensure the fans in KC don’t miss him when he signs as a FA elsewhere. |
| 9:38 |
How much does the Royal’s bullpen coming in this early affect tomorrow’s game? |
| 9:38 |
: Nice job by Crawford not making an out there.
|
| 9:38 |
: Almost not at all, although maybe Duffy won’t be available if he goes a while
|
| 9:39 |
: Weird to see Duffy miss down with four fastballs. Unusual
|
| 9:39 |
has Shields change up deteriorated to the point that he isn’t using it that much anymore? can he get it back? |
| 9:39 |
: Hit or miss all season long. It’s a problem
|
| 9:40 |
The Royals *should* be able to afford an Anibal Sanchez type contract for Shields, right? |
| 9:40 |
: Should they want to?
|
| 9:41 |
: That looked like a strike, but he missed the glove by so much he didn’t get it.
|
| 9:41 |
: And this is why you don’t go to the long guy with the rally still in effect.
|
| 9:41 |
: Wow
|
| 9:42 |
This is pretty typical of how the Giants score runs |
| 9:42 |
: Duffy is around the zone, but the Royals are getting no favors from Jerry Meals. He has to be more accurate than he naturally is
|
| 9:43 |
Who’s chatting tomorrow? |
| 9:43 |
: Us again!
|
| 9:43 |
Is Duffy good? I’m leaving this open for interpretation. |
| 9:43 |
: We are going on 0 days rest.
|
| 9:43 |
: Not good right now, pretty good normally, not nearly as good as his ERA
|
| 9:43 |
It’s been a pretty tight zone for both sides but certainly it’s affecting the royals more |
| 9:43 |
: Perez also a bad framer, Posey a good one.
|
| 9:44 |
Which reliever would you rather have seen the Royals bring in? |
| 9:44 |
: Herrera.
|
| 9:44 |
: There’s a generous strike call
|
| 9:44 |
Giants WE up to 95% |
| 9:45 |
: That high? Geez
|
| 9:45 |
Why waste herrera this early and risk the possibility of him being unable to go in a close game or game 2? |
| 9:45 |
: The Royals haven’t played in five days and have an off day Thursday. He can go back to back.
|
| 9:45 |
: Off we go to the bottom of the fourth, after 98 minutes
|
| 9:45 |
If the Giants go up 6+ runs, do they take out MadBum early to save him for later WS games? |
| 9:46 |
: Doesn’t really work like that. He’s taxed himself today, already
|
| 9:46 |
If Perez is a better pitch framer, one or both of those close balls called strikes? |
| 9:46 |
: The missed location on the fastball doesn’t help
|
| 9:47 |
The Royals have come back from 5 runs before this postseason, and it is only the 4th inning. This game isn’t over. |
| 9:47 |
: Guess we won’t stop chatting then!
|
| 9:47 |
So if things keep going like this do we maybe see Lincecum (If they can find him)? |
| 9:47 |
: He’ll only pitch if they’re way down.
|
| 9:48 |
: Managers protect every lead in the WS like it’s a one run lead.
|
| 9:48 |
As they should no? |
| 9:48 |
: There’s a line at which it’s not necessary anymore, but that line isn’t 5-0, so yes.
|
| 9:48 |
: Did they find Lincecum, btw? I’m not on Twitter
|
| 9:48 |
: Yeah, he’s in the dugout.
|
| 9:48 |
: What happened?
|
| 9:48 |
: He just didn’t come out for intros.
|
| 9:49 |
Madbum and posey established the zone already, that’s why the high stuff is getting called strikes and the bottom part is getting squeezed |
| 9:49 |
: You heard Raul Ibanez: the Royals’ players are fighting
|
| 9:49 |
: Actually, that’s just how the ump calls things.
|
| 9:49 |
: This is his normal zone.
|
| 9:49 |
Where will Ibanez be next year? |
| 9:49 |
: Forcibly retired.
|
| 9:49 |
: Catchers and pitchers will get calls around where they like to pitch, and not where they don’t. Bumgarner works his fastball up, so that’s where Posey’s prepared to catch
|
| 9:50 |
Do we have any kind of data on how pitchers perform after extremely long layoffs? (Wacha, Duffy after 19 days) |
| 9:50 |
: I haven’t seen it studied, but I presume those pitchers are a little worse than usual, for a variety of reasons
|
| 9:51 |
: You only get 19 days off if you’ve sucked or been hurt.
|
| 9:51 |
: pretty much
|
| 9:51 |
If Royals end up losing this game, is it even really a big deal given the dropoff in the Giants Rotation after Bumgarner? |
| 9:51 |
: It is a very big deal
|
| 9:52 |
In a 7 game series, the importance of individual games is massive. Every game. |
| 9:52 |
: And Shields is the best starter on the Royals, too, probably
|
| 9:52 |
yeah, the whole “he’s getting pitches because he’s been hitting his spots” thing is most likely a myth right? |
| 9:52 |
: If you’re hitting your spots, you’ll get a big zone
|
| 9:53 |
: Because catchers don’t have to move very much
|
| 9:53 |
: Perez swung at a pitch that went 50 feet.
|
| 9:53 |
: Jesus christ Salvador Perez
|
| 9:54 |
: Six pitches to Perez in the game, none real close to the zone, five strikes
|
| 9:54 |
: This seems like a problem.
|
| 9:54 |
: He has sucked for months
|
| 9:54 |
: 50% O-Swing or something since the break
|
| 9:54 |
: He took one!!
|
| 9:54 |
: He didn’t take two
|
| 9:55 |
: I feel like I saw Dan Wilson have a postseason like this ~20 years ago.
|
| 9:55 |
: This is where we all remember that Perez’s game-winning double that will go down in Royals all-time history was a swing at a pitch out of the zone
|
| 9:56 |
Why is Lincecum on the roster then? Petit is their long guy, do they have no other pitcher/bench bat option that would be a better option than him? Surely at this point they care more about winning the WS than annoying him. |
| 9:57 |
: They don’t have a deep pitching staff and the series could have a max of three games in an NL ballpark so Lincecum makes sense as an emergency guy. You don’t really need 25 players for a seven-game series
|
| 9:57 |
: Having a Terrence Gore type in the organization for series like this isn’t an awful idea, though.
|
| 9:57 |
: isn’t Quintin Berry still around somewhere?
|
| 9:58 |
Last seen wearing an Orioles uniform |
| 9:58 |
Sandoval a White Sox target? |
| 9:58 |
: Wrong color Sox.
|
| 9:59 |
Dan Wilson 1995 Playoffs: 2-33 (2 singles), RBI, 2 BB, 10 K |
| 9:59 |
: I thought so.
|
| 9:59 |
: Better defender though
|
| 9:59 |
: Giants had one guy in the system this year steal 40+ bases, none at 50+
|
| 9:59 |
No way Perez walks twice |
| 10:00 |
: Kelby Tomlinson? 49/61
|
| 10:00 |
Dan Wilson 1997 Playoffs: 0-13, 0 BB, 9 K. Yikes. |
| 10:00 |
: Is this always Duffy’s follow-through?
|
| 10:00 |
: This is why I remember him being awful in October, I guess.
|
| 10:00 |
Kelby Tomlinson isn’t even a real name |
| 10:01 |
: his initials are KAT http://www.baseball-referen…
|
| 10:01 |
Dan Wilson Career Playoffs: 8-88, 4 BB, 32 K |
| 10:02 |
If the Royals hadn’t turned it around midseason, would Clash of Clans been the fried chicken and beer for ousting Yost? |
| 10:02 |
: Well, the 2014 Royals were never hyped as the best baseball team of all time
|
| 10:02 |
So if Escobar took the mound right now, how hard could he throw (ignoring command)? 90mph? 95? |
| 10:02 |
: Sean Doolittle went from hitter to 100 mph reliever in short order.
|
| 10:02 |
: So, yeah, 95+.
|
| 10:03 |
So last year we had the walk-off interference call (Craig) and a game ending pick-off (Wong), what antics would you predict this year? |
| 10:03 |
: Playoffs have already had a walk-off bunt
|
| 10:03 |
: I’ll go with a walk-off stolen base and throwing error
|
| 10:04 |
:
 My dear lord. It is Hunter Pence. |
| 10:04 |
: Jeff Francis callback
|
| 10:04 |
Why does CIL always turn the sound back on? |
| 10:04 |
: Do you have a computer on your lap?
|
| 10:05 |
Walk off rule 7.13 violation. |
| 10:05 |
: oh man
|
| 10:06 |
: Weird Al plays for the Steelers now?
|
| 10:07 |
Would Bochy pull Bumgarner without giving up a run? |
| 10:07 |
| 10:08 |
Just signed in, so I apologize if you have already covered this, but wassup with that guy in the Marlins jacket and hat sitting right behind the plate? I mean, if you can afford those seats you should be able to afford new Royals gear, right? |
| 10:08 |
| 10:08 |
Royals seem to have lost the mojo… |
| 10:09 |
: All it takes is one loss for us all to be like, oh yeah, Royals
|
| 10:09 |
: the team that struggled to maintain a positive run differential
|
| 10:09 |
Yes, I’m on a laptop |
| 10:09 |
: You probably touched the volume setting inadvertently with your hand or clothes
|
| 10:09 |
Then why did most people call this series for the Royals? |
| 10:09 |
: The Giants also are flawed
|
| 10:10 |
: Just FYI, the CIL software is doing some weird stuff at the moment, and so your questions might disappear in the ether.
|
| 10:11 |
: I had to refresh and clear the queue to get things going again
|
| 10:11 |
What was the lowest WE% the Royals got in the wildcard game? Where are they in this game? |
| 10:11 |
: Bottomed out at 2.9%
|
| 10:12 |
: Right now they’re at 4.1%
|
| 10:12 |
: aaaaand lower with that out
|
| 10:12 |
Do you think the slow curve will be a bigger part of pitcher’s repertoires in the future? |
| 10:12 |
: Probably not. Pitchers are never going to trust it that much
|
| 10:13 |
LOL no I click the sound-off button every time I join a chat, but it never takes the hint that I want it to STFU forever and not just for one chat. Nice design there. |
| 10:13 |
: CIL is both very flawed and very much the best we can offer
|
| 10:13 |
: It’s the only game in town.
|
| 10:13 |
: So! Bumgarner:
44 fastballs |
| 10:14 |
: We tried Scribble Live for a bit. It was worse, then got bought by CIL.
|
| 10:14 |
: Still can’t believe James Shields allowed ten line drives
|
| 10:15 |
: I can’t even imagine the Royals not using and trusting Shields
|
| 10:15 |
: This is literally what they got him for
|
| 10:15 |
: Yeah, they’re starting him in Game 5 unless he’s hurt.
|
| 10:16 |
: First I’ve heard of diminished velocity for Shields
|
| 10:16 |
: Note: Michael Morse never hit 40 homers in the minors.
|
| 10:16 |
: His career high as a minor leaguer was 17.
|
| 10:17 |
: maybe 40 errors
|
| 10:17 |
That seems low. |
| 10:17 |
| 10:18 |
: Morse in the minors was a contact guy, not a power guy
|
| 10:18 |
: After hitting 17 HRs, he failed a steroids test too.
|
| 10:18 |
: He and Matt Tuiasosopo were supposed to have a lot in common
|
| 10:18 |
: In that they sucked
|
| 10:18 |
2 tests. |
| 10:18 |
: No, just one. Two suspensions from same failed test. It was weird.
|
| 10:19 |
:
 He grew into his power. |
| 10:19 |
Which player has the most overrated power? |
| 10:19 |
Zack Greinke is probably a quite logical guy … but he can’t be pleased watching the Royals in the WS, can he? |
| 10:19 |
: Cespedes.
|
| 10:19 |
: For multiple reasons
|
| 10:20 |
Is Jeff going to do a post on the worst individual postseason baserunning performances? |
| 10:20 |
: Without stats I am nothing
|
| 10:20 |
: Stride length could be an interesting thing to look at. Wonder if Statcast will measure that.
|
| 10:20 |
: They’re going to measure effective velocity, right?
|
| 10:20 |
: Trackman has measured stride length in the past. I can’t wait
|
| 10:21 |
: I believe Trackman gives arm extension, so yes, effective velocity is possible.
|
| 10:21 |
: Trackman has had neat things to say about David Robertson’s stride
|
| 10:21 |
Statcast measures everything. You blink statcast measures it. |
| 10:21 |
: I don’t blink.
|
| 10:22 |
: Even my girlfriend knows that
|
| 10:22 |
: It’s how she refers to you in conversation
|
| 10:22 |
: “the guy who doesn’t blink”?
|
| 10:23 |
: it’s how you’re distinguished from other Daves and Davids we know
|
| 10:23 |
: What are some of the other descriptors?
|
| 10:24 |
: surprisingly young Dave, man David, Dave dump truck
|
| 10:24 |
: it’s complicated
|
| 10:24 |
third time through the order– pull Bumgarner? |
| 10:24 |
: Huh?
|
| 10:24 |
The final NotGraphs post should be a slow motion video of Dave blinking to the 2001 theme. |
| 10:24 |
: Bochy won’t take Bumgarner out until/unless he allows a run.
|
| 10:25 |
will Bochy let Bumgarner go for CG SO in this game? |
| 10:25 |
: Not with 77 pitches through five
|
| 10:26 |
: Aoki is remarkably able to hit groundballs to the opposite half of the field
|
| 10:26 |
: Not that that’s necessarily a good thing much of the time
|
| 10:27 |
: It is if they shift you, but doing so means they don’t shift you.
|
| 10:27 |
: Yeah, Aoki is shift-proof, but also he’s not very good
|
| 10:28 |
So according to BaseRuns this year, the Royals were only 2 games better than the Cubs. As a Cubs fan, should this make me happy or make me want to puke? |
| 10:28 |
: Very happy.
|
| 10:28 |
: Royals
|
| 10:29 |
: Time to crowdsource!
|
| 10:29 |
Feeling like I’m entitled to a great game tonight because the playoffs have been great so far. Indignant about it. Has me thinking about greatest playoffs of my life. I think it’s 1986 but that might just have been because I was a kid and kid-colored glasses. What’s your nomination? |
| 10:29 |
: 2004 is going to be tough to ever beat.
|
| 10:29 |
: Just so much history there.
|
| 10:30 |
: Fun to hear Hosmer and Moustakas talking about Bumgarner’s slider
|
| 10:31 |
Dont remember the whole playoffs but that Yankee’s/DBacks world series will always stick out in my mind. |
| 10:31 |
: 2001.
|
| 10:31 |
: I will never ever ever ever forget that Game 7
|
| 10:32 |
: or more specifically, the end of it
|
| 10:32 |
: I don’t know anything that happened before the 8th
|
| 10:32 |
Does Bumgarner actually get better deeper into a game or is that narrative thing? What are his numbers 1/2/3 time through the lineup? |
| 10:32 |
: He gets less worse than most, but still gets worse.
|
| 10:33 |
Is James Sheilds an Ace? |
| 10:33 |
: No.
|
| 10:33 |
: James Shields is a No 2 who’s close to being a No 3
|
| 10:33 |
: And will probably be a #5 when his next contract ends.
|
| 10:33 |
I was 10 that year. Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson pitched how many games in 2001? I forget. |
| 10:33 |
: Johnson pitched on 0 days rest. And was good!
|
| 10:34 |
Dave’s favorite all time Mariner is clearly Randy Johnson (E Martinez gets lip service), and his least favorite clearly Michael Morse. |
| 10:35 |
: Miguel Olivo.
|
| 10:35 |
: So the playoffs saw Randy Johnson on 0 days’ rest and 1 days’ rest.
|
| 10:35 |
: miss u randy 🙁
|
| 10:35 |
Okay, I just tried searching Big Unit in the fangraphs search bar, and apparently there was someone with the first name Big Jeff who played in the Deadball era. |
| 10:36 |
Who wins more games in 2015, Giants or Cubs? |
| 10:36 |
: Giants
|
| 10:36 |
: Depends on how aggressive Cubs are this winter.
|
| 10:36 |
: I’m trying to be conservative with that
|
| 10:36 |
: If they sign Scherzer and trade for another good arm like Cueto…?
|
| 10:37 |
Think the Cubs might go after Brandon McCarthy? |
| 10:37 |
: Or, say, pitcher + Martin
|
| 10:37 |
: Yes.
|
| 10:37 |
: McCarthy could be pursued by everyone now that he answered so many questions in 2014
|
| 10:37 |
: Health, results, and higher velocity while pitching in New York?
|
| 10:38 |
Re: Cueto– I’ve seen speculation on a Reds-Red Sox deal involving Cueto and a Sox OF; see any traction for that rumor? |
| 10:38 |
: Cespedes and stuff for Cueto could make sense for both.
|
| 10:38 |
Which Cubs prospect do you guys think will have the biggest impact next year? |
| 10:38 |
: Bryant
|
| 10:39 |
And the least memorable? 2005 has to be it in recent memory, no? The White Sox-Astros? That happened. I’m almost sure of it. |
| 10:39 |
: I don’t believe you
|
| 10:40 |
Do the Giants try to find a second baseman next year or just go with Panik? He seems like he could be productive. |
| 10:40 |
: He’s fine.
|
| 10:40 |
: Pretty safe 2-3 win player, seems like
|
| 10:40 |
What’s the ceiling on Panik? |
| 10:40 |
: Marco Scutaro/Omar Infante.
|
| 10:40 |
: OF defense betrays the Royals again.
|
| 10:41 |
: That’s why Dyson subs in for Aoki during games going better than this
|
| 10:41 |
: Nori Aoki takes pride in his defense.
|
| 10:41 |
: He is a very active runner
|
| 10:41 |
To be fair, Aoki hasn’t actually been that bad on D in his career. |
| 10:42 |
: Positive career DRS and UZR!
|
| 10:42 |
: That was a Raul Ibanez reference.
|
| 10:42 |
: A lot of that being his arm
|
| 10:42 |
: His routes were also terrible.
|
| 10:42 |
How many wins for each of the following in 2015: STL, PIT, CHC |
| 10:43 |
: 88, 85, 85
|
| 10:43 |
Even if money was no option, do the Royals even really want to Re-sign Shields? Is he worth it to them considering what he is likely to cost? |
| 10:43 |
: A team with that level payroll shouldn’t make that kind of investment in a non-elite pitcher
|
| 10:43 |
: The AARP is really pronouncing “aarp” as a word?
|
| 10:43 |
: They need to get more WAR out of their money
|
| 10:44 |
Are the BaseRuns “standings” for previous years available? It would be fun to look at some of my favorite teams in the past and see if their seasons were better/worse than they should have been… |
| 10:44 |
: I would also like that!
|
| 10:44 |
: Not yet. But I have the spreadsheet back to ’02 if you’re curious.
|
| 10:44 |
: I will take requests for specific years, within reason.
|
| 10:44 |
Which Cubs prospect will have the least impact next year? |
| 10:44 |
: Among the ones close, Baez could have the worst impact
|
| 10:45 |
Game has become so boring this is now Cubs chat |
| 10:45 |
: This is the World Series!
|
| 10:45 |
: This is the NL Wild Card game all over again.
|
| 10:46 |
BaseRuns request: ’03 Tigers! |
| 10:46 |
: That game would’ve been almost over by now
|
| 10:46 |
: .265 Win%, .298 BaseRuns%
|
| 10:46 |
: So not as bad as their record, but worst BaseRuns season in our dataset, by a mile.
|
| 10:46 |
Why are you guys so sure that most/all of the cubs prospects will work out so soon? How do you know they wont turn into the Royals prospects? |
| 10:46 |
: Who’s sure?
|
| 10:46 |
This game is boring, and I’m a Giants fan |
| 10:47 |
: Boy was the KC crowd ever unprepared for this
|
| 10:47 |
: “The National League must be chock full of juggernauts!”
|
| 10:48 |
Its too bad Dyson cant hit. Would much rather see him everyday then Aoki. |
| 10:48 |
: He’s good enough to start
|
| 10:48 |
: Can you imagine if you paid the $1,000 ticket price to get in and see this?
|
| 10:48 |
: Where would that rank in frustrating life regrets?
|
| 10:48 |
: I figure if I could afford $1000 for a sports game, that $1000 probably wouldn’t mean very much to me
|
| 10:49 |
: Although when I paid $500 to attend a couple of Stanley Cup games that was a god damn nightmare
|
| 10:49 |
: What’s the most you’ve ever paid for an event ticket?
|
| 10:49 |
: Personally? I think like $75. My parents paid $500 for 4 tickets to the first game at Safeco.
|
| 10:50 |
: AUGH
|
| 10:50 |
: Jose Mesa ruined our day.
|
| 10:50 |
: Jose Mesa was the this game of closers
|
| 10:50 |
red sox 2013 alcs game 2 was $120 on stub hub 2 days before. best decision I ever made. |
| 10:50 |
$230. 2013 WS game 3. Walk off obstruction. I was there. |
| 10:51 |
$110 for “touch the roof” seats for Game 2 of the 2001 World Series. |
| 10:51 |
Baseruns request: 2006 Cardinals |
| 10:52 |
: .516 Win%, .512 BaseRuns%
|
| 10:52 |
Perry Husband isn’t happy about you using his term effective velocity incorrectcly. Effective Velocity is based on different locations makes velocity different due to reaction time. They changed it to proper perceived velocity in Statcast, which is extention based |
| 10:52 |
: sorry Perry Husband
|
| 10:52 |
A game where the hometeam is getting stomped always seem more boring. A funereal crowd does nothing to make the game seem important. |
| 10:53 |
: This is a good reminder that there’s no such thing as a crowd that’s loud and supportive during a bad game
|
| 10:53 |
: Everyone shuts up
|
| 10:53 |
2011 Rangers BaseRuns, por favor |
| 10:53 |
: .593 Win%, .609 BaseRuns%
|
| 10:54 |
What’s the highest % since 02? |
| 10:54 |
: 2011 Phillies: .631 BaseRuns%
|
| 10:54 |
Who hangs up first? The rights to Brandon Morrow + Anthony Gose + Steve Delabar for Giancarlo? |
| 10:54 |
: This might be the very worst proposal I’ve seen in my entire life
|
| 10:55 |
: And I’ve seen jumbotron proposals
|
| 10:55 |
Thankfully, every baseball game has an intermission to remind us of the unlikely alliance of professional baseball and militarized power. |
| 10:55 |
Who hangs up first? The operator. |
| 10:55 |
What happens if you buy tickets for a game 7 that doesn’t get played? |
| 10:56 |
: My guess is you don’t get charged unless the game happens. Not actually certain
|
| 10:56 |
: You have to buy whole strips for the series
|
| 10:56 |
: Not individual game tickets
|
| 10:56 |
: So then…?
|
| 10:56 |
: I think they refund the unplayed games afterwards.
|
| 10:56 |
: I bet the refund comes up short of 100%
|
| 10:57 |
: I think I heard some team tried to just roll over the difference to a season ticket credit for the next year or something.
|
| 10:57 |
: It didn’t go well for them.
|
| 10:57 |
: No.
|
| 10:57 |
: So almost two-thirds of you figure the Cubs out-win the Royals next season!
|
| 10:58 |
Was this team the Marlins after their firesale? |
| 10:58 |
: I feel like it was the Nationals.
|
| 10:58 |
: I could be wrong though.
|
| 10:58 |
: Sounds like the kind of thing you can’t even try to pull off in the social media era
|
| 10:59 |
: Butler almost reached the warning track
|
| 11:00 |
Best player name in the series? In baseball? |
| 11:00 |
: Yusmeiro Petit, probably. Boring series in that regard. Maybe just Joe Panik
|
| 11:00 |
Largest BaseRuns % vs Real Win % difference? |
| 11:00 |
: 2005 D’Backs: .475 Win%, .402 BaseRuns%, so they won 12 more than expected.
|
| 11:01 |
: “The pitch count itself is a non-issue because he’s so aggressive.” Tom Verducci, on Madison Bumgarner
|
| 11:01 |
: do not understand
|
| 11:01 |
: “Salvador Perez’s swings at balls are a non-issue, because he’s such a strong thrower”
|
| 11:02 |
Perez strikes out in 4 pitches |
| 11:02 |
The Nats gave NLCS ticket priority to people who put a deposit down on 2015 season tickets. So the refunded games became a larger deposit, rather than cash back. But it was for people who had already committed to 2015 season tix |
| 11:02 |
Maybe he means that being aggressive means more strikes and lower pitch counts in general but that is meaningless |
| 11:02 |
: Hey, Perez did a thing!
|
| 11:02 |
: The pitcher who can’t do any wrong against the guy who can’t hit.
|
| 11:03 |
: And the pitch was a borderline ball
|
| 11:03 |
: Perez truly is turning in the Miguel Olivo Special
|
| 11:04 |
that was a neat catch |
| 11:04 |
: And now Bochy can safely remove Bumgarner without worrying about anything
|
| 11:04 |
That home run might help the Giants more in the series then if it hadn’t happened. |
| 11:04 |
: Truth.
|
| 11:05 |
: Interesting!
|
| 11:05 |
: Although I’d like to give Bochy more credit than that
|
| 11:05 |
Would you try Lincecum here? Shake off the rust in case you need him later in the series? |
| 11:05 |
: Wouldn’t really serve a purpose, but at this point it doesn’t matter who they put in
|
| 11:05 |
: I don’t think they will. He takes a while to warm up.
|
| 11:05 |
: Last we saw him, he was hunched over in a hoodie, head on his knees. I don’t think he’s moved in two hours
|
| 11:05 |
That home run added .04% win expectancy FYI |
| 11:06 |
It was .4% not .04% |
| 11:06 |
What does Baseruns say about the team with the most wins since 2002. 2004 Cardinals, 105 wins. |
| 11:06 |
: .648 Win%, .621 BaseRuns%
|
| 11:07 |
: American Idol is still on?
|
| 11:07 |
: honestly didn’t know either
|
| 11:07 |
: Grey’s Anatomy is still on!
|
| 11:07 |
: amazing!
|
| 11:07 |
It seems like the Royals are reliant on great bullpen, which aren’t reliable, and some things they could use–SP to replace Shields, DH to replace Butler–are going to be expensive to replace. |
| 11:08 |
: Shields and Butler combined for like 3.4 WAR so the Royals can do just fine without them next season
|
| 11:08 |
: And cost $22M.
|
| 11:08 |
: And while the bullpen can’t be expected to be as good again in 2015, the defense is legit
|
| 11:08 |
: If the Royals aren’t dumb about their new money, they can keep contending
|
| 11:08 |
: That’s a big if.
|
| 11:08 |
: Sure is!
|
| 11:09 |
Contracts being equal would you you rather build your rotation around Kershaw or Bumgarner at this point? |
| 11:09 |
: Kershaw a bazillion times out of a bazillion
|
| 11:09 |
: Come on.
|
| 11:09 |
: Well, that was nifty.
|
| 11:09 |
: So great. So insignificant in the greater scheme of things, but so great
|
| 11:10 |
Tom Verducci did say that Bumgarner is built for October. I also think that he said he’s “built like a brick.” I guess this is why he has manageable pitch counts. |
| 11:10 |
: Sure as crap wasn’t built for October 2012
|
| 11:11 |
Does Bumgarner’s WAR seem low? |
| 11:11 |
: People don’t correct for AT&T Park/NL average enough.
|
| 11:12 |
Was born August 1 so there is a chance he was built in October! |
| 11:13 |
: The AT&T effect on pitching numbers is huge. You can argue how much it affects Bumgarner if you want, but that’s why the WAR is what it is
|
| 11:13 |
9.07 K/9 and 1.78 BB/9 for 217 IP seems like it should be more WAR no matter the park. Help? |
| 11:14 |
: His ERA-/FIP-/ was 87/89. He just didn’t have a dominant season.
|
| 11:14 |
: Dominant second half! Non-dominant first half. People don’t remember
|
| 11:14 |
: Did Chevy just try to use Mo’ne Davis to sell vehicles?
|
| 11:15 |
Rex huddler said today on radio that Moore is the best executive in baseball |
| 11:15 |
: Rex Hudler was hired for a reason and he fulfills that reason
|
| 11:15 |
But wouldn’t you prefer Bumgarner to Shields 9 times out of 10 even if WAR doesn’t say so? |
| 11:16 |
: Yes, because Bumgarner is better, and you don’t use single season numbers to determine which player is better. Steamer has Bumgarner ahead by half a win. http://www.fangraphs.com/pr…
|
| 11:16 |
: Steamer does *not* get Clayton Kershaw
|
| 11:17 |
What kinda new money are we talking about? How much is this one exciting post season worth to Kansas City going forward? Also – Alex Gordon! |
| 11:17 |
: Well, that’s more our FIP-WAR.
|
| 11:17 |
: They’ll get like $8-10 million in revenue from these games alone, plus they’ll get greater attendance in 2015
|
| 11:17 |
: Vince Gennaro estimated that a postseason run like this can be worth ~$75 million over five years.
|
| 11:18 |
: That’s a lot of dollars!
|
| 11:19 |
Are the Giants the most boring team in baseball? Consistently decent with a very boring lineup that manages to get into the playoffs and playing boring baseball that they win |
| 11:19 |
: Pence/Sandoval/Posey bores you?
|
| 11:19 |
: And that rally ended fast.
|
| 11:19 |
Wasn’t the effect on the Yankees even more? |
| 11:19 |
: Banner day for Aoki, where the banner says “you suck”
|
| 11:19 |
: Big markets have more potential revenues, yes.
|
| 11:20 |
Jeff do you realize that with the imminent demise of NotGraphs, that you might be our sole remaining provider of baseball-humor related entertainment? Are you up to this task? |
| 11:20 |
: Heavens no
|
| 11:20 |
Good or bad thing to expose all of the Giants lefties to 2 of 3 lefty bullpen arms? |
| 11:21 |
: Well the Giants just used Lopez. It probably matters not even a little bit
|
| 11:21 |
: Also Duffy and Collins are the worse of the Royals’ three lefty options
|
| 11:22 |
How much longer will it be before 1 of the 3 in the booth is a Saber guy? Someone like Never or someone else who can do commentary but can also provide analytical insight that the token ex – player can’t necessarily provide? |
| 11:22 |
: You want an analyst who’s also a good and personable talker. There are like eight of these people overall in the world
|
| 11:22 |
: Wait, why is there a postgame interview with Steve Ballmer?
|
| 11:22 |
: It’s interesting enough to have people taking chances on Verducci given that he never played
|
| 11:24 |
What’s wrong with James Shields? |
| 11:24 |
: No, really, why is a Steve Ballmer interview a thing?
|
| 11:24 |
: Fatigue and decline
|
| 11:25 |
Isn’t that because of the aging curve though? Shields has been worth more than Bumgarner for the past 3 years according to WAR. And inxhindsight, wouldn’t you still pick Bumgarner for all 3 years in any park or league? |
| 11:25 |
I’m sad for Royals fans. |
| 11:25 |
: Nope.
|
| 11:25 |
: Their team is in the world series
|
| 11:25 |
| 11:26 |
: Bumgarner has a higher ERA- and FIP- than Shields over the last three years.
|
| 11:26 |
: Shields’ WAR is higher because he’s been better. He’s not anymore, but he has been in the past.
|
| 11:27 |
: I assume people wonder about the real AT&T effect on Bumgarner, since his career home wOBA is .289 and his career road wOBA is .287
|
| 11:28 |
: but that appears like it could be a BABIP thing
|
| 11:28 |
: And neutral platoon splits don’t mean that your pitcher friendly park didn’t help you.
|
| 11:28 |
: It could just be that he pitched worse, and the park masked that.
|
| 11:28 |
: Yeah. You can definitely see the dinger effect in there
|
| 11:29 |
Is this the worst collection of postseason analysts ever? |
| 11:29 |
: Tim McCarver
|
| 11:29 |
: Tim McCarver and anyone
|
| 11:30 |
I read Dave’s analysis; the Royals 2-3-4 starters are better than the Giants, correct? This is somewhat expected in Game 1 versus BumBum, no? |
| 11:30 |
: The Royals were slight favorites today
|
| 11:31 |
How much does Panda get this off season after looking like a stud this post season ? Stock couldn’t possibly be higher |
| 11:31 |
: It could be much higher. A few years ago he slugged .552!
|
| 11:31 |
: 5/100.
|
| 11:32 |
: I’m going to go out on a limb and guess that the pulled pork sandwich at Wendy’s is terrible.
|
| 11:32 |
: Did that man not realize he was eating Wendy’s at the time?
|
| 11:32 |
: As soon as this is over I’m having my own homemade pulled pork sandwich on a brioche bun!
|
| 11:32 |
: I have homemade pulled pork in the fridge, but no brioche bun : (
|
| 11:33 |
: 🙁
|
| 11:33 |
I could just see MGL crunching numbers in the booth before he starts screaming and calling everyone stupid and wrong. If things get real bad, I’d be worried for the Manager’s safety. |
| 11:33 |
: I would love MGL on a broadcast, once
|
| 11:33 |
Is it weird that I really enjoy Tom Verducci at times? Does anyone else feel like he can break down individual at-bats at worst tolerably and often engagingly? |
| 11:33 |
: I find him to be out of his element discussing pitch sequences
|
| 11:33 |
: That’s a very specific complaint
|
| 11:34 |
If I moved an extreme groundball pitcher like prime Brandon Webb to AT&T, wouldn’t the park adjustments be unfair? |
| 11:34 |
: That’s the thing people say about Felix Hernandez and Safeco. It’s got validity
|
| 11:34 |
: depending on what you’re talking about
|
| 11:35 |
: Park factors are about the value of preventing runs in a specific environment. It doesn’t matter that Webb’s not as affected by the park as others, because others are, making it less valuable to prevent runs at the level Webb would.
|
| 11:35 |
: Think of a pitcher’s park creating a high replacement level for every pitcher, regardless of the benefit they get from the park.
|
| 11:36 |
: So in short: the adjustments are appropriate, for determining value, but if you’re trying to figure out true talent, then be more careful with your general park adjustments
|
| 11:36 |
: Right. If you’re trying to say what a player would do in a neutral park, then you want component park factors. For past value, though, you want the run environment factor.
|
| 11:37 |
: And that might be the source of some Bumgarner disagreement. Could just be people talking about different things
|
| 11:37 |
: Of course, as a lefty, he should get disproportionate value from AT&T’s huge RF area.
|
| 11:38 |
: So not sure I’d even buy that the park adjustment is unfair to him.
|
| 11:38 |
: I wouldn’t either, but people might. His home HR/FB is 7.8%; on the road, 10%
|
| 11:38 |
: Felix is my preferred example of a somewhat unfair adjustment
|
| 11:38 |
: Felix is my preferred example of most things
|
| 11:39 |
Dave, re: AT&T: super short down the line doesn’t hurt? |
| 11:39 |
: The wall is like 50 feet high.
|
| 11:39 |
: It’s very hard to HR to RF in AT&T.
|
| 11:39 |
Does Statcast use TrackMan technology or is it another company/something proprietary? |
| 11:39 |
: It’s Trackman tech with HegoGroup software.
|
| 11:39 |
Not using Lincecum here pretty much guarantees he’s not seen in this series right? |
| 11:39 |
: (I think the last part is right, but not entirely sure.)
|
| 11:39 |
: Basically. They’d rather have faith in Strickland
|
| 11:40 |
Is Trackman going to overtake PITCHf/x as the main tracking instrument in MLB ballparks? |
| 11:40 |
: Seems likely, yes.
|
| 11:41 |
Is it plausible that Statcast or something like it will let us consider balls in play as a percentage of an outcome based on trajectory and speed and the like? That would take out park factors and defense, no? Or at least average it. |
| 11:41 |
: That’s the hope, yes.
|
| 11:41 |
: Hey, the game ended.
|
| 11:41 |
: Hopefully tomorrow is better.
|
| 11:41 |
: A Royals loss!
|
| 11:41 |
: took 3:34!
|
| 11:41 |
: better than I expected early on
|
| 11:41 |
: Off to go write positive things about Madison Bumgarner for Fox.
|
| 11:42 |
: Thanks for hanging out with us tonight.
|
| 11:42 |
: We’ll do it again tomorrow! Hopefully the Royals don’t do this again tomorrow
|
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Where is the live game odds scoreboard?