2014 World Series Game One Live Blog

7:58
Dave Cameron: It’s the World Series!

7:59
Dave Cameron: Come hang out with Jeff and I. We promise jokes, and some analysis, and mostly fun.

8:04
Comment From Nate
NotGraphs live chat is going strong, you guys are slackers over here!

8:05
Dave Cameron: They have to get all their comments out before they die.

8:05
Comment From Pale Hose
Cameron is promising fun and Cistulli is promising melancholy. Still don’t know which to choose

8:06
Dave Cameron: If the team you’re rooting for starts losing, melancholy is probably your best bet.

8:07
Comment From Guest
Predictions for Game 1?

8:07
Jeff Sullivan: World Series baseball!

8:07
Dave Cameron: Bumgarner outpitches Shields, but Royals come back against SF bullpen.

8:08
Comment From Guest
Steemer projections have the Royals as almost 3:2 favorites – where would you put the line?

8:08
Jeff Sullivan: I’ll go with Bumgarner outpitches Shields, and the Royals almost come back against SF bullpen

8:08
Dave Cameron: Probably about 54/46 KC. I don’t think the bullpen gap is as big as Steamer thinks.

8:09
Dave Cameron: Pitch one looked like a strike to me, but okay.

8:10
Jeff Sullivan: Wonder if anyone ever has swung at the first pitch of a World Series

8:10
Dave Cameron: This seems like a thing you would wonder.

8:10
Jeff Sullivan: Is everyone not wondering that?

8:10
Jeff Sullivan: Two tight called balls already

8:10
Comment From Dave Camerons Puppy
Jeff: Best of the worst: first world series pitches

8:10
Jeff Sullivan: Small sample 🙁

8:11
Dave Cameron: Wow, those positional overlays are… bright.

8:11
Jeff Sullivan: Fly ball, Royals outfield, hit. It *is* possible

8:11
Jeff Sullivan: Royals

8:12
Jeff Sullivan: Royals

8:12
Jeff Sullivan: Royals starter

8:12
Dave Cameron: Jeff doesn’t want you to watch the game, only answer polls.

8:12
Jeff Sullivan: Done with polls

8:13
Comment From Jaack
I forgot that Omar Infante

8:13
Dave Cameron: Good thing Jake Smolinski isn’t in this game then.

8:13
Jeff Sullivan: Playing hurt btw

8:13
Jeff Sullivan: For multiple reasons, re: Smolinski

8:14
Jeff Sullivan: Gregor Blanco seems like Royals material

8:14
Dave Cameron: He was with them for a while, I believe.

8:14
Dave Cameron: Because he’s a former Braves prospect, and that’s where former Braves prospects go.

8:14
Jeff Sullivan: Came over with Jesse Chavez and Tim Collins. Fascinating trade in retrospect

8:15
Jeff Sullivan: Score one for baserunner deterrence by Alex Gordon, although that was a pretty easy call

8:15
Dave Cameron: Apparently Tim Lincecum is missing. Because why not.

8:15
Jeff Sullivan: Almost literally no use for him in this series anyhow, with how slow he is to home

8:16
Jeff Sullivan: But, good mystery!

8:16
Dave Cameron: Why send Posey there?

8:16
Dave Cameron: There’s only one out. He can score without a hit.

8:16
Jeff Sullivan: The Giants score MOST of their runs without a hit

8:17
Jeff Sullivan: Sandoval there, by the way: RBI double against a pitch out of the zone, low!

8:17
Jeff Sullivan: Appropriate sequence. Bad-ball hit by Sandoval, weird SF baserunning, good KC defense

8:17
Comment From Aussie Mariner
Jeff cares about which pitcher gets the W? Firable offence?

8:17
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t care about the win assignment, I just care how people feel the game is going to go

8:18
Comment From Alex
Jeff/Dave: Why don’t pitchers throw over a bunch as a stalling tactic when a reliever needs to get hot quickly? Pride? Fatigue? Do they actually do that often?

8:19
Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t be surprised if they actually do, among other things

8:19
Dave Cameron: Decent actual analysis from Reynolds there.

8:19
Dave Cameron: And decent swing from Hunter Pence.

8:19
Comment From john
does the audience get to participate in this chat?

8:19
Jeff Sullivan: You do!

8:19
Comment From AJT
Big Game James

8:20
Jeff Sullivan: That was a perfectly mashable fastball in the very center of the hitting zone

8:20
Comment From T^T
Posey could have scored here.

8:20
Jeff Sullivan: Giants hit one in front of Cain, one to Cain, and one beyond Cain

8:20
Dave Cameron: Or Shields pitches differently with man on third and only one out.

8:21
Dave Cameron: Those were some awful pitches to Pence.

8:21
Jeff Sullivan: Tom Verducci doesn’t seem to understand much about game theory and pitch-sequencing. Been a qualm I’ve had with him all month

8:21
Comment From Nate
Don’t you get Duffy loose in the pen? Shields has only retired one batter on a deep fly ball.

8:22
Dave Cameron: Early performance isn’t predictive of future performance within a game, for the most part.

8:22
Jeff Sullivan: Critical point to understand, that one

8:22
Jeff Sullivan: This is pretty remarkable, though

8:22
Dave Cameron: Seems like we’re not going to have to deal witth Yost sticking with Shields for too long tonight, though.

8:22
Jeff Sullivan: That’s a changeup out of the zone, but Belt looked awful comfortable

8:23
Jeff Sullivan: How much longer, honestly, can the Big Game nickname stick? It’s becoming laughable

8:23
Comment From Aussie Mariner
CSNBaggs Andrew Baggarly
No explanation from Giants on Lincecum absence. At time for intros, he wasn’t in clubhouse. They did not search back areas, bathrooms.

8:23
Comment From divcoman
Reynolds is noticeably better than he was a few years back.

8:23
Dave Cameron: I would think he’ll ask people to stop calling him that eventually.

8:24
Jeff Sullivan: I’ve actually liked him a fair amount this month (Reynolds). Fairly valuable insight into stuff other people don’t often talk about

8:24
Jeff Sullivan: He’s also something of a talking head, but he has to be. I like his presence more than I don’t

8:24
Comment From Keeper
Kelvin Herrera’s new inning is about to be the 1st.

8:24
Dave Cameron: Olney says their bullpen is stirring.

8:25
Dave Cameron: 3-1 and Morse chases a pitch at his toes.

8:25
Jeff Sullivan: What is it stirring?

8:25
Dave Cameron: Pretty lousy at-bat for Morse there.

8:25
Comment From Dave
That statement by Reynolds about the NL getting more fastballs (as a league!) is false though, right?

8:26
Jeff Sullivan: Ehh, Morse was going to get hurt running if he’d actually reached base

8:26
Dave Cameron: It might be true if you include pitcher’s hitting, but take them out, and I don’t see it being true.

8:26
Comment From Ben
I am in Australia and have the MLB International feed featuring Rick Sutcliffe. He just said that “sometimes an overachiever gets tired of overachieving” and then went onto decry sabermetrics in the next sentence.

8:27
Jeff Sullivan: I’m glad to have FOX

8:27
Jeff Sullivan: can’t believe I had reason to type that sincerely

8:27
Jeff Sullivan: I loathe Rick Sutcliffe

8:27
Comment From T-Mac
Who is this Marlins fellow behind home plate? He sat there in ALCS too…

8:27
Comment From Guest
This may be more suited for the NotGraphs chat, but what’s up with the guy behind home plate with the Marlins gear? He was there when KC got the pennant too

8:27
8:27
Comment From Rafael (VEN)
True or false: Bumgarner is about to solidify his case for best playoff performer of his generation (pitching).

8:28
Dave Cameron: 67 postseason innings, 2.67 ERA. I mean, he’s been good and all, but let’s not get carried away.

8:28
Comment From T^T
wonder what Red Sox Front Office is thinking about Shields now

8:29
Comment From Guest
“knows how to win” is my least favorite phrase in the history of phrases

8:29
Jeff Sullivan: Probably that he’s a good pitcher who’s pitched a lot

8:29
Dave Cameron: It is the epitome of lazy analysis.

8:29
Comment From Skoolboy Jim
What happens when SF gets to Guthrie and Vargas?

8:29
Jeff Sullivan: They win the world series, probably

8:30
Comment From Andrew
Does Shields come out for the 2nd?

8:30
Dave Cameron: Definitely.

8:30
Jeff Sullivan: Giants win expectancy at 76%

8:30
Jeff Sullivan: Wonder what that means for their World Series win expectancy. Up a few percentage points

8:30
Comment From Marty
Place your bets: first guy in the booth to say shutdown inning is…

8:30
Jeff Sullivan: I feel like that was a TBS thing? Maybe I’m wrong

8:31
Dave Cameron: Yeah, that was TBS’ gig.

8:31
Jeff Sullivan: they should loan Pedro to FOX for this

8:31
Dave Cameron: And that was the equivalent of BABIP luck.

8:32
Dave Cameron: equivalent, definition, same thing.

8:32
Jeff Sullivan: That’s about as calm as a comebacker gets

8:32
Jeff Sullivan: Unless, I guess, Cliff Lee

8:32
Dave Cameron: Cliff Lee

8:32
Jeff Sullivan: Did we ever talk about that anecdote?

8:33
Dave Cameron: I don’t know.

8:33
Jeff Sullivan: Lee, of course, was famously calm-looking as he handled the ball right back to him in the World Series

8:33
Jeff Sullivan: The next spring, he was in camp with the Mariners, and the coaches made a point of saying, hey everyone, you should look at how composed Lee was last October. That’s a role model, for composing yourself on the field under pressure

8:34
Jeff Sullivan: Lee raised his hand and said “actually I just about shit myself”

8:34
Dave Cameron: That is a good anecdote.

8:34
Jeff Sullivan: #sports #psychology

8:34
Comment From Jesus
Dyson get a chance to start somewhere soon?

8:34
Dave Cameron: KC, probably.

8:35
Jeff Sullivan: I think Cain is trying to pull the ball

8:35
Dave Cameron: It’s not a “good battle” when you swing at a breaking ball that might have bounced if you hadn’t swung.

8:36
Jeff Sullivan: And that, meanwhile, is the game’s calmest-ever HBP

8:36
Comment From Kyle
Ok, that “Dayton Moore has made a lot of shrewd moves” was just to Cameron bait…

8:36
Dave Cameron: I ignored it.

8:37
Comment From Guest
BABIP luck is pretty much what it takes to win postseason, no?

8:37
Jeff Sullivan: What it takes to win, period

8:38
Jeff Sullivan: Pitchers had a .253 BABIP in wins, .360 BABIP in losses

8:38
Dave Cameron: You can’t hit a ball harder than that.

8:38
Dave Cameron: Man.

8:38
Jeff Sullivan: Holy cow

8:39
Jeff Sullivan: Dave! Let’s pretend you work for Inside Edge

8:39
Jeff Sullivan: What probability do you give that play of being made?

8:39
Dave Cameron: 25%? It wasn’t that far into the gap, I don’t think.

8:40
Jeff Sullivan: I was actually going to say roughly 50%, but I really don’t know

8:40
Jeff Sullivan: Seems like Blanco had a bit of a curve to his route at the end. But he broke quick…

8:40
Comment From zmiko
Need statcast!

8:41
Dave Cameron: I would assume we’ll get Blanco’s data on that play, but they haven’t given us any of the hitting metrics yet.

8:41
Jeff Sullivan: I live in fear of the day we lose PITCHf/x because I don’t know what I’m going to do

8:41
Dave Cameron: So we probably won’t know Hosmer’s exit velocity.

8:41
Jeff Sullivan: I’m guessing 105-110mph

8:41
Dave Cameron: Yeah, definitely north of 100.

8:41
Jeff Sullivan: I’d love to know the agreement between HITf/x and the Home Run Tracker

8:42
Dave Cameron: I don’t think Home Run Tracker uses HITF/x.

8:42
Dave Cameron: I could be wrong.

8:42
Jeff Sullivan: It doesn’t. I mean I’d like to know if the numbers are similar/the same

8:42
Dave Cameron: But I think ESPN has their own calculations based on what Greg Rybarczyk setup originally.

8:42
Jeff Sullivan: That is correct

8:42
Dave Cameron: Oh, agreement as in correlation.

8:43
Comment From Hank
So heard on a Buster Olney podcast (I think), that Bumgarner was pitching in way more with his fastball this postseason. Is this just a small sample, more specific scouting of opponents, trying to change things up?

8:43
Jeff Sullivan: Good news! www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mad…

8:43
Comment From zmiko
I know the Nationals broadcast was showing exit velocity quite a bit on their broadcasts this year, do that mean statcast was in place collecting data or something else?

8:43
Dave Cameron: The Nationals bought their own Trackman hardware.

8:44
Comment From Craig
Cards have exit velocity as well

8:44
Dave Cameron: Yeah, a few already had Trackman installed before MLBAM decided to do this.

8:44
Comment From Ben
Did the Nationals take it with them to AT&T, would love to have seen data on Harper vs Strickland

8:45
Dave Cameron: The system is installed in the park. They have a portable version, but from what I’ve heard, it’s not very good.

8:45
Jeff Sullivan: ESPN Home Run Tracker thinks Harper hit the ball 114 mph off Strickland

8:45
Jeff Sullivan: the first time. 100mph the second time

8:46
Comment From KevinM
Sheesh, Shields is leaving a LOT of pitches up.

8:46
Dave Cameron: Location pitcher + bad location = duck.

8:46
Comment From Jaack
His pitches haven’t been THAT high dave, they don’t need to duck.

8:47
Jeff Sullivan: I think he was trying to work Crawford up high a bit, for what that’s worth

8:47
Jeff Sullivan: Might reconsider for next time, if he makes it to next time

8:47
Comment From Guest
This zone is really small tonight….

8:47
Dave Cameron: Agree, this isn’t helping Shields’ case.

8:48
Comment From Guest
This may be dismissed, but should be less hard and fast about “excelling” and “struggling”. Wouldn’t a team have a mechanics expert watching things like Release Point,Posture,Balance,Consistency.. etc. that can see if something is off?

8:49
Jeff Sullivan: You mean like a hitting or pitching coach?

8:49
Dave Cameron: Even pitching coaches will tell you that they usually can’t see that stuff live. That’s why they study slow-mo video.

8:49
Jeff Sullivan: Sometimes you can’t even see it on video! Mechanical analysis is hard!

8:50
Comment From Kevin
How many millions has James cost himself these playoffs?

8:50
Jeff Sullivan: Probably not very many

8:50
Dave Cameron: Yeah, close to zero.

8:51
Comment From Matt
Is there ever a chance, especially like a player like Hosmer, that they have genuinely improved and our models are slow to pick it up? Especially with an elite prospect. I mean baseball is all about making adjustments and it seems like he has since his injury and the pitchers haven’t. I feel like we ignore it while a guy like Ryan Parker from BP could pick up on tangible change.

8:51
Jeff Sullivan: Models are slow to pick up genuine breakouts, but genuine breakouts are exceedingly rare

8:51
Jeff Sullivan: Like, the models were slow on JD Martinez, but also Lonnie Chisenhall, and Chisenhall regressed super hard

8:52
Comment From Dave Camerons Puppy
“Big Game” doesn’t imply if he’s good in them or not. Just that he’s experienced them

8:52
Comment From Vlad4MVP
Do you think it’s fair to say that the Royals’ success is less sustainable because it’s based so much on defense, which peaks early?

8:52
Jeff Sullivan: I’d say it’s less sustainable because of the 81-81 baseruns record

8:53
Dave Cameron: Wait, we can exit velocity on that?

8:53
Dave Cameron: But not on the Hosmer out?

8:53
Dave Cameron: Boooooo

8:54
Jeff Sullivan: Blanco returned that ball to the infield quickly, making sure Butler would stay put. Aggressive runner

8:54
Comment From John
Any way to attack Gordon?

8:54
Dave Cameron: Make him face LHPs.

8:55
Jeff Sullivan: Looks like Gordon struggles most up and away

8:55
8:56
Comment From Ruki
What do you guys think is the worst commercial you’ve seen in this year’s playoffs? For me, it remains HEY CRAIG.

8:56
Dave Cameron: 50 minutes since first pitch, and we’re in the bottom of the 2nd, with one out.

8:56
Jeff Sullivan: How could it not be Viagra? It’s Viagra.

8:57
Dave Cameron: And then we get 2 outs in 10 seconds.

8:57
Jeff Sullivan: That’s a pretty and very well-composed double play

8:57
Jeff Sullivan: Three pitches to Perez, all well out of the zone, two swings and one broken-bat DP

8:58
Jeff Sullivan: Perez has been not good for the Royals for a long time

8:58
Comment From Dylan
Did you see Jeff Long’s article today suggesting hitters should be expecting a fastball up and in during every count from MadBum?

8:58
Jeff Sullivan: That’s his new thing for the time being

8:59
Comment From mtsw
What’s in it for Fox to use Joe Buck for WS? Because he’s a familiar brand for NFL viewers or do they honestly think hes an improvement over someone who calls baseball full time?

8:59
Jeff Sullivan: I think he’s fine

8:59
Dave Cameron: Voice + pedigree + emmy’s.

8:59
Jeff Sullivan: He’s had some pretty great calls this month

9:00
Jeff Sullivan: He’s not great, he’s not bad, he doesn’t say much that’s stupid and he’s self-aware with a sense of humor

9:00
Comment From Adam
Does it bother anyone else they stop showing regularseason stats after the division series?

9:01
Jeff Sullivan: Yes

9:01
Comment From Scott
Looks to me like both pitchers are leaving the ball up.

9:01
Jeff Sullivan: Bumgarner works up

9:01
Jeff Sullivan: on purpose

9:01
Comment From Nick S.
What individual pitcher-batter matchup are you guys looking forward to the most?

9:01
Jeff Sullivan: Romo vs. Perez

9:02
Dave Cameron: Davis/Sandoval would be fun too.

9:02
Jeff Sullivan: Davis vs anybody, but yeah, definitely Sandoval and Pence

9:02
Comment From Michael
Even though the Royals are the favorites, the Giants have the favorable SP matchups in most of the games, right?

9:02
Dave Cameron: No. Their rotation after Bumgarner is bad.

9:02
Jeff Sullivan: AT&T Park is super super super pitcher-friendly

9:03
Comment From Michael
And Guthrie/Vargas are good?

9:03
Dave Cameron: Better than Peavy and Vogelsong.

9:04
Dave Cameron: There are three good starting pitchers in this series, and the Royals have two of them (Shields/Ventura).

9:04
Jeff Sullivan: line out…line out…

9:05
Dave Cameron: That ball is gone in warmer weather/smaller stadium?

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: Not a 100% route efficiency for Cain there

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: Three more well-hit balls in play for Shields. Kind of a miraculous 1-2-3

9:05
Comment From David
which baseball sites do y’all read?

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: www.fangraphs.com

9:06
Dave Cameron: Also hardballtimes.com

9:06
Comment From mtsw
Can any of the Royals’ starting pitchers hit decently for the games in SF?

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: Vargas has some skill

9:07
Comment From ralph
Everyone seen MGL’s latest posts showing that even when a starting pitcher is dealing through most of the game, that has no extra predictive value going foward, based on real-world results? http://mglbaseball.wordpres… and http://mglbaseball.wordpres…

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: See: Clayton Kershaw, October 2014

9:07
Dave Cameron: One of the five most important things to be learned about baseball: recent performance is almost always useless.

9:08
Comment From Rob
What are the other four?

9:08
Dave Cameron: I think I’ll make this an article, after the WS ends.

9:09
Comment From Ruki
Crawford with the rare error! The rarerror!

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: Good pitches by Bumgarner, at least

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: Pretty subtle when they’re cheering Moustakas or booing Moustakas

9:10
Comment From KevinM
I would not want to sit behind the guy with the antlers

9:10
Dave Cameron: That’s a pretty great replay.

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: Never seen that before

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: calls for a #viral #gif

9:11
Dave Cameron: Dan Brooks did a thing at Saber Seminar about having a ball stick to his hand after loading it up, but yeah, that was new.

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: Moustakas goes out of the zone 3-and-1…

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: That’s better

9:12
Dave Cameron: Royals learn from Giants mistake, don’t send runner on a double to right.

9:12
Comment From ralph
How hard would it be to have a picture-in-picture showing the baserunner on a play like that?

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: I’d like that if they could do it without it being cluttered

9:13
Comment From Ken
Broken bat balls in play result in more errors?

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: I’m guessing fewer fielding errors, more throwing errors

9:14
Dave Cameron: Escobar chasing pitches that aren’t close.

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: He’s the pitcher in the lineup

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: set him up for a low breaking ball, away

9:14
Dave Cameron: They got Escobar out by throwing one pitch out of the zone over and over.

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: or that

9:14
Dave Cameron: That was atrocious.

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: wow that sucked

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: that’s the Mike Trout Strike-out!

9:15
Dave Cameron: Miguel Olivo had it first.

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: Olivo would’ve done it on fewer pitches

9:16
Comment From Ralphem
That 60-3 stat is funny. Breaking news: good pitchers often win when given a good lead.

9:16
Comment From KevinM
Does Bumgarner get an inordinate amount of hitters to swing at the first pitch or is that just Royals being aggressive?

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: Royals, aggressive

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: They don’t strike out and there are a lot of reasons why

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: Sometimes, though, they strike out.

9:17
Dave Cameron: Batting order doesn’t matter much, until you blow a great chance to score because you hit Escobar and a lefty at the top of the order against Bumgarner.

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: I forgot that Escobar was first and not last. Haha!

9:17
Comment From Brian
HP ump calling 3rd check swings has gotten out of control this year

9:17
Dave Cameron: 3B ump called that one.

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: This camera angle gives me absolutely no hope of understanding where the pitches are

9:18
Dave Cameron: Hey, a high fastball chased.

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: Royals going way after that high fastball out of the zone

9:18
Comment From Marsupial Jones
Doesnt Aoki hit lefties better then righties?

9:18
Dave Cameron: Reverse platoon splits are never real.

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: I’ll make a note to write about this if patterns hold…

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: Aoki and Ichiro, perhaps something there though

9:19
Dave Cameron: Ichiro’s career reverse split is like 1.02, and he’s the most extreme.

9:19
Comment From Guest
Bumgarner just testing how high he can throw it and still get the Royals to swing

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, I don’t believe in reverse splits, but I can believe in smaller splits than normal

9:19
Dave Cameron: Well, yes. Opposite field hitters tend to have smaller splits than pull guys, I believe.

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: Bumgarner here is an example of why high-leverage pitches are probably more taxing than ordinary pitches

9:20
Dave Cameron: Good job, Lorenzo.

9:20
Comment From KevinM
Bumgarner’s almost up to the same pitch count as Shields

9:21
Comment From Ellis
Is grunt microphone a new thing?

9:21
Dave Cameron: A terrible new thing.

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: Great job by Cain salvaging that plate appearance

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: The Royals do not have a good lineup

9:21
Dave Cameron: Easy postgame narrative: Giants won the game in that inning.

9:23
Comment From Ben
Royals are supposed to be about small ball exectution no?

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: Tied for fourth in the AL in productive out rate!

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: First in the AL in scoring runners from third with fewer than two out

9:24
Comment From Bonus Wagner
Hosmer swinging at the first pitch there after Bumgarner had been all over the zone with the previous batter…..really?

9:24
Dave Cameron: Well, that was probably intentional, given that Cain is RH and first base was open.

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: And Hosmer didn’t get a *bad* pitch to hit — cutter away. He just didn’t hit it

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: Bumgarner: 34 fastballs, 13 sliders, six curves

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: Shields: 34 fastballs, 10 cutters, seven curves, six changeups(!)

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: Stat of the game for now: Shields has allowed one grounder, two fly balls, nine line drives

9:26
Dave Cameron: Yikes.

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: And that’s a line drive/grounder

9:27
Comment From Elixx
I assume there’s no option to close the “Who’s going to win Game 1!” poll after the game starts? Funny to see the Giants percentage slowly increase.

9:27
Comment From Elixx
Big Blame James

9:27
Comment From Ellis
BUT NED YOST HAS FIGURED IT OUT!?

9:27
Dave Cameron: I still prefer Low Yields Shields.

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: Yost has gotten smarter, but he also hasn’t faced many deficits like this lately

9:28
Dave Cameron: It is somewhat easier to look smart when your team gets leads and your bullpen is amazing.

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: Bad pitch by Shields, bad block by Perez

9:28
Dave Cameron: The Royals have sucked so far.

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: This is an important game to remind us of perspective

9:29
Comment From Ruki
You might even say they’ve sucked Royally.

9:29
Comment From Marsupial Jones
So who do you bring in, Duffy?

9:29
Dave Cameron: You can’t play the long game here. You need to get Herrera warming to try and keep this lead at 3.

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: My favorite Dave Cameron FanGraphs headline ever: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

9:29
Dave Cameron: But Yost has Duffy warming.

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: Odd

2013 Herrera: 22% K-BB
2014 Herrera: 12% K-BB

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: Did not realize

9:31
Dave Cameron: Another centered fastball.

9:32
Dave Cameron: And here comes Duffy.

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: Amazing to think what Shields’ playoff numbers would look like this month without the defense having bailed him out a few times

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: Shields’ career playoff ERA up to 5.57, and he left a couple of runners here

9:34
Comment From Brian
Is this really him? He’s been horrible in all 4 starts I’ve seen (all playoff), can’t imagine a contender paying him ace money

9:34
Dave Cameron: Ace money is $150M-$200M+. He won’t get that. He’ll get durable innings eater money, $80Mish.

9:35
Dave Cameron: Perez pinch-hitting with 4 run lead. I love this!

9:35
Dave Cameron: Go Bruce Bochy.

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: How many times, ever, are there pinch-hitters in the 4th inning?

9:35
Dave Cameron: For non-injury reasons.

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: And for non-pitchers

9:36
Comment From hscer
Um, couldn’t Ishikawa have done that, though?

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: That’s awesome.

9:36
Dave Cameron: Perez now gets to play defense, which he can do.

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: And Ishikawa is a first baseman in an enormous outfield

9:37
Comment From Nivra
Really? You think Perez as a PH-bunter is a better play than Ishi vs. Duffy and Perez to replace him in the field in the bottom of the inning?

9:37
Dave Cameron: Ishikawa vs an LHP isn’t a good match-up.

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: Shields, officially: two grounders, two flies, ten line drives. And one of the grounders was basically a liner

9:38
Comment From Ryan
Nice of Shields to do his best to ensure the fans in KC don’t miss him when he signs as a FA elsewhere.

9:38
Comment From Guest
How much does the Royal’s bullpen coming in this early affect tomorrow’s game?

9:38
Dave Cameron: Nice job by Crawford not making an out there.

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: Almost not at all, although maybe Duffy won’t be available if he goes a while

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: Weird to see Duffy miss down with four fastballs. Unusual

9:39
Comment From Guest
has Shields change up deteriorated to the point that he isn’t using it that much anymore? can he get it back?

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: Hit or miss all season long. It’s a problem

9:40
Comment From froglegs_jackson
The Royals *should* be able to afford an Anibal Sanchez type contract for Shields, right?

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: Should they want to?

9:41
Dave Cameron: That looked like a strike, but he missed the glove by so much he didn’t get it.

9:41
Dave Cameron: And this is why you don’t go to the long guy with the rally still in effect.

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: Wow

9:42
Comment From Anonymous
This is pretty typical of how the Giants score runs

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: Duffy is around the zone, but the Royals are getting no favors from Jerry Meals. He has to be more accurate than he naturally is

9:43
Comment From The Big Dipper
Who’s chatting tomorrow?

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: Us again!

9:43
Comment From Elixx
Is Duffy good? I’m leaving this open for interpretation.

9:43
Dave Cameron: We are going on 0 days rest.

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: Not good right now, pretty good normally, not nearly as good as his ERA

9:43
Comment From Sam
It’s been a pretty tight zone for both sides but certainly it’s affecting the royals more

9:43
Dave Cameron: Perez also a bad framer, Posey a good one.

9:44
Comment From Boydwonder
Which reliever would you rather have seen the Royals bring in?

9:44
Dave Cameron: Herrera.

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: There’s a generous strike call

9:44
Comment From divcoman
Giants WE up to 95%

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: That high? Geez

9:45
Comment From Dave
Why waste herrera this early and risk the possibility of him being unable to go in a close game or game 2?

9:45
Dave Cameron: The Royals haven’t played in five days and have an off day Thursday. He can go back to back.

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: Off we go to the bottom of the fourth, after 98 minutes

9:45
Comment From Ruki
If the Giants go up 6+ runs, do they take out MadBum early to save him for later WS games?

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: Doesn’t really work like that. He’s taxed himself today, already

9:46
Comment From KevinM
If Perez is a better pitch framer, one or both of those close balls called strikes?

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: The missed location on the fastball doesn’t help

9:47
Comment From Guest
The Royals have come back from 5 runs before this postseason, and it is only the 4th inning. This game isn’t over.

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: Guess we won’t stop chatting then!

9:47
Comment From Deelron
So if things keep going like this do we maybe see Lincecum (If they can find him)?

9:47
Dave Cameron: He’ll only pitch if they’re way down.

9:48
Dave Cameron: Managers protect every lead in the WS like it’s a one run lead.

9:48
Comment From Ben
As they should no?

9:48
Dave Cameron: There’s a line at which it’s not necessary anymore, but that line isn’t 5-0, so yes.

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: Did they find Lincecum, btw? I’m not on Twitter

9:48
Dave Cameron: Yeah, he’s in the dugout.

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: What happened?

9:48
Dave Cameron: He just didn’t come out for intros.

9:49
Comment From Alex
Madbum and posey established the zone already, that’s why the high stuff is getting called strikes and the bottom part is getting squeezed

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: You heard Raul Ibanez: the Royals’ players are fighting

9:49
Dave Cameron: Actually, that’s just how the ump calls things.

9:49
Dave Cameron: This is his normal zone.

9:49
Comment From Jaack
Where will Ibanez be next year?

9:49
Dave Cameron: Forcibly retired.

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: Catchers and pitchers will get calls around where they like to pitch, and not where they don’t. Bumgarner works his fastball up, so that’s where Posey’s prepared to catch

9:50
Comment From August Fagerstrom
Do we have any kind of data on how pitchers perform after extremely long layoffs? (Wacha, Duffy after 19 days)

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: I haven’t seen it studied, but I presume those pitchers are a little worse than usual, for a variety of reasons

9:51
Dave Cameron: You only get 19 days off if you’ve sucked or been hurt.

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: pretty much

9:51
Comment From Marsupial Jones
If Royals end up losing this game, is it even really a big deal given the dropoff in the Giants Rotation after Bumgarner?

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: It is a very big deal

9:52
Comment From Sam
In a 7 game series, the importance of individual games is massive. Every game.

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: And Shields is the best starter on the Royals, too, probably

9:52
Comment From Guest
yeah, the whole “he’s getting pitches because he’s been hitting his spots” thing is most likely a myth right?

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: If you’re hitting your spots, you’ll get a big zone

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: Because catchers don’t have to move very much

9:53
Dave Cameron: Perez swung at a pitch that went 50 feet.

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: Jesus christ Salvador Perez

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: Six pitches to Perez in the game, none real close to the zone, five strikes

9:54
Dave Cameron: This seems like a problem.

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: He has sucked for months

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: 50% O-Swing or something since the break

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: He took one!!

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: He didn’t take two

9:55
Dave Cameron: I feel like I saw Dan Wilson have a postseason like this ~20 years ago.

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: This is where we all remember that Perez’s game-winning double that will go down in Royals all-time history was a swing at a pitch out of the zone

9:56
Comment From Aussie Mariner
Why is Lincecum on the roster then? Petit is their long guy, do they have no other pitcher/bench bat option that would be a better option than him? Surely at this point they care more about winning the WS than annoying him.

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: They don’t have a deep pitching staff and the series could have a max of three games in an NL ballpark so Lincecum makes sense as an emergency guy. You don’t really need 25 players for a seven-game series

9:57
Dave Cameron: Having a Terrence Gore type in the organization for series like this isn’t an awful idea, though.

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: isn’t Quintin Berry still around somewhere?

9:58
Comment From baltic wolf
Last seen wearing an Orioles uniform

9:58
Comment From Grand Admiral Braun
Sandoval a White Sox target?

9:58
Dave Cameron: Wrong color Sox.

9:59
Comment From Boydwonder
Dan Wilson 1995 Playoffs: 2-33 (2 singles), RBI, 2 BB, 10 K

9:59
Dave Cameron: I thought so.

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: Better defender though

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: Giants had one guy in the system this year steal 40+ bases, none at 50+

9:59
Comment From Craig
No way Perez walks twice

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: Kelby Tomlinson? 49/61

10:00
Comment From Boydwonder
Dan Wilson 1997 Playoffs: 0-13, 0 BB, 9 K. Yikes.

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: Is this always Duffy’s follow-through?

10:00
Dave Cameron: This is why I remember him being awful in October, I guess.

10:00
Comment From Guest
Kelby Tomlinson isn’t even a real name

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: his initials are KAT http://www.baseball-referen…

10:01
Comment From Guest
Dan Wilson Career Playoffs: 8-88, 4 BB, 32 K

10:02
Comment From Guest
If the Royals hadn’t turned it around midseason, would Clash of Clans been the fried chicken and beer for ousting Yost?

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: Well, the 2014 Royals were never hyped as the best baseball team of all time

10:02
Comment From Hank
So if Escobar took the mound right now, how hard could he throw (ignoring command)? 90mph? 95?

10:02
Dave Cameron: Sean Doolittle went from hitter to 100 mph reliever in short order.

10:02
Dave Cameron: So, yeah, 95+.

10:03
Comment From Neil
So last year we had the walk-off interference call (Craig) and a game ending pick-off (Wong), what antics would you predict this year?

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: Playoffs have already had a walk-off bunt

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: I’ll go with a walk-off stolen base and throwing error

10:04
Jeff Sullivan:
My dear lord. It is Hunter Pence.

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: Jeff Francis callback

10:04
Comment From Crusty Kuntz
Why does CIL always turn the sound back on?

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: Do you have a computer on your lap?

10:05
Comment From Marsupial Jones
Walk off rule 7.13 violation.

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: oh man

10:06
Dave Cameron: Weird Al plays for the Steelers now?

10:07
Comment From Guest
Would Bochy pull Bumgarner without giving up a run?

10:07
10:08
Comment From kevinthecomic
Just signed in, so I apologize if you have already covered this, but wassup with that guy in the Marlins jacket and hat sitting right behind the plate? I mean, if you can afford those seats you should be able to afford new Royals gear, right?

10:08
10:08
Comment From guest
Royals seem to have lost the mojo…

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: All it takes is one loss for us all to be like, oh yeah, Royals

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: the team that struggled to maintain a positive run differential

10:09
Comment From Crusty Kuntz
Yes, I’m on a laptop

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: You probably touched the volume setting inadvertently with your hand or clothes

10:09
Comment From Guest
Then why did most people call this series for the Royals?

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: The Giants also are flawed

10:10
Dave Cameron: Just FYI, the CIL software is doing some weird stuff at the moment, and so your questions might disappear in the ether.

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: I had to refresh and clear the queue to get things going again

10:11
Comment From Guest
What was the lowest WE% the Royals got in the wildcard game? Where are they in this game?

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: Bottomed out at 2.9%

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: Right now they’re at 4.1%

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: aaaaand lower with that out

10:12
Comment From Yoopka
Do you think the slow curve will be a bigger part of pitcher’s repertoires in the future?

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: Probably not. Pitchers are never going to trust it that much

10:13
Comment From Crusty Kuntz
LOL no I click the sound-off button every time I join a chat, but it never takes the hint that I want it to STFU forever and not just for one chat. Nice design there.

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: CIL is both very flawed and very much the best we can offer

10:13
Dave Cameron: It’s the only game in town.

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: So! Bumgarner:

44 fastballs
19 sliders/cutters
12 curves
1 changeup

10:14
Dave Cameron: We tried Scribble Live for a bit. It was worse, then got bought by CIL.

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: Still can’t believe James Shields allowed ten line drives

10:15
10:15
Jeff Sullivan: I can’t even imagine the Royals not using and trusting Shields

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: This is literally what they got him for

10:15
Dave Cameron: Yeah, they’re starting him in Game 5 unless he’s hurt.

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: First I’ve heard of diminished velocity for Shields

10:16
Dave Cameron: Note: Michael Morse never hit 40 homers in the minors.

10:16
Dave Cameron: His career high as a minor leaguer was 17.

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: maybe 40 errors

10:17
Comment From Guest
That seems low.

10:17
10:18
Jeff Sullivan: Morse in the minors was a contact guy, not a power guy

10:18
Dave Cameron: After hitting 17 HRs, he failed a steroids test too.

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: He and Matt Tuiasosopo were supposed to have a lot in common

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: In that they sucked

10:18
Comment From Guest
2 tests.

10:18
Dave Cameron: No, just one. Two suspensions from same failed test. It was weird.

10:19
Dave Cameron:
He grew into his power.

10:19
Comment From Yoopka
Which player has the most overrated power?

10:19
Comment From hscer
Zack Greinke is probably a quite logical guy … but he can’t be pleased watching the Royals in the WS, can he?

10:19
Dave Cameron: Cespedes.

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: For multiple reasons

10:20
Comment From Jon
Is Jeff going to do a post on the worst individual postseason baserunning performances?

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: Without stats I am nothing

10:20
Dave Cameron: Stride length could be an interesting thing to look at. Wonder if Statcast will measure that.

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: They’re going to measure effective velocity, right?

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: Trackman has measured stride length in the past. I can’t wait

10:21
Dave Cameron: I believe Trackman gives arm extension, so yes, effective velocity is possible.

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: Trackman has had neat things to say about David Robertson’s stride

10:21
Comment From Guest
Statcast measures everything. You blink statcast measures it.

10:21
Dave Cameron: I don’t blink.

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: Even my girlfriend knows that

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: It’s how she refers to you in conversation

10:22
Dave Cameron: “the guy who doesn’t blink”?

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: it’s how you’re distinguished from other Daves and Davids we know

10:23
Dave Cameron: What are some of the other descriptors?

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: surprisingly young Dave, man David, Dave dump truck

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: it’s complicated

10:24
Comment From Rick
third time through the order– pull Bumgarner?

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: Huh?

10:24
Comment From Jaack
The final NotGraphs post should be a slow motion video of Dave blinking to the 2001 theme.

10:24
Dave Cameron: Bochy won’t take Bumgarner out until/unless he allows a run.

10:25
Comment From Max L
will Bochy let Bumgarner go for CG SO in this game?

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: Not with 77 pitches through five

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: Aoki is remarkably able to hit groundballs to the opposite half of the field

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: Not that that’s necessarily a good thing much of the time

10:27
Dave Cameron: It is if they shift you, but doing so means they don’t shift you.

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, Aoki is shift-proof, but also he’s not very good

10:28
Comment From KG
So according to BaseRuns this year, the Royals were only 2 games better than the Cubs. As a Cubs fan, should this make me happy or make me want to puke?

10:28
Dave Cameron: Very happy.

10:28
Dave Cameron: Royals

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: Time to crowdsource!

10:29
Comment From BDF
Feeling like I’m entitled to a great game tonight because the playoffs have been great so far. Indignant about it. Has me thinking about greatest playoffs of my life. I think it’s 1986 but that might just have been because I was a kid and kid-colored glasses. What’s your nomination?

10:29
Dave Cameron: 2004 is going to be tough to ever beat.

10:29
Dave Cameron: Just so much history there.

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: Fun to hear Hosmer and Moustakas talking about Bumgarner’s slider

10:31
Comment From Marsupial Jones
Dont remember the whole playoffs but that Yankee’s/DBacks world series will always stick out in my mind.

10:31
Dave Cameron: 2001.

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: I will never ever ever ever forget that Game 7

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: or more specifically, the end of it

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know anything that happened before the 8th

10:32
Comment From Guest
Does Bumgarner actually get better deeper into a game or is that narrative thing? What are his numbers 1/2/3 time through the lineup?

10:32
Dave Cameron: He gets less worse than most, but still gets worse.

10:33
Comment From Trisha
Is James Sheilds an Ace?

10:33
Dave Cameron: No.

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: James Shields is a No 2 who’s close to being a No 3

10:33
Dave Cameron: And will probably be a #5 when his next contract ends.

10:33
Comment From JZ
I was 10 that year. Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson pitched how many games in 2001? I forget.

10:33
Dave Cameron: Johnson pitched on 0 days rest. And was good!

10:34
Comment From hscer
Dave’s favorite all time Mariner is clearly Randy Johnson (E Martinez gets lip service), and his least favorite clearly Michael Morse.

10:35
Dave Cameron: Miguel Olivo.

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: So the playoffs saw Randy Johnson on 0 days’ rest and 1 days’ rest.

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: miss u randy 🙁

10:35
Comment From Jaack
Okay, I just tried searching Big Unit in the fangraphs search bar, and apparently there was someone with the first name Big Jeff who played in the Deadball era.

10:36
Comment From John
Who wins more games in 2015, Giants or Cubs?

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: Giants

10:36
Dave Cameron: Depends on how aggressive Cubs are this winter.

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: I’m trying to be conservative with that

10:36
Dave Cameron: If they sign Scherzer and trade for another good arm like Cueto…?

10:37
Comment From Eric Weinstein
Think the Cubs might go after Brandon McCarthy?

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: Or, say, pitcher + Martin

10:37
Dave Cameron: Yes.

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: McCarthy could be pursued by everyone now that he answered so many questions in 2014

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: Health, results, and higher velocity while pitching in New York?

10:38
Comment From Ryan
Re: Cueto– I’ve seen speculation on a Reds-Red Sox deal involving Cueto and a Sox OF; see any traction for that rumor?

10:38
Dave Cameron: Cespedes and stuff for Cueto could make sense for both.

10:38
Comment From Yoopka
Which Cubs prospect do you guys think will have the biggest impact next year?

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: Bryant

10:39
Comment From Jason B
And the least memorable? 2005 has to be it in recent memory, no? The White Sox-Astros? That happened. I’m almost sure of it.

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t believe you

10:40
Comment From Guest
Do the Giants try to find a second baseman next year or just go with Panik? He seems like he could be productive.

10:40
Dave Cameron: He’s fine.

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: Pretty safe 2-3 win player, seems like

10:40
Comment From Dano
What’s the ceiling on Panik?

10:40
Dave Cameron: Marco Scutaro/Omar Infante.

10:40
Dave Cameron: OF defense betrays the Royals again.

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: That’s why Dyson subs in for Aoki during games going better than this

10:41
Dave Cameron: Nori Aoki takes pride in his defense.

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: He is a very active runner

10:41
Comment From Ruki
To be fair, Aoki hasn’t actually been that bad on D in his career.

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: Positive career DRS and UZR!

10:42
Dave Cameron: That was a Raul Ibanez reference.

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: A lot of that being his arm

10:42
Dave Cameron: His routes were also terrible.

10:42
Comment From Guest
How many wins for each of the following in 2015: STL, PIT, CHC

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: 88, 85, 85

10:43
Comment From Marsupial Jones
Even if money was no option, do the Royals even really want to Re-sign Shields? Is he worth it to them considering what he is likely to cost?

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: A team with that level payroll shouldn’t make that kind of investment in a non-elite pitcher

10:43
Dave Cameron: The AARP is really pronouncing “aarp” as a word?

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: They need to get more WAR out of their money

10:44
Comment From KG
Are the BaseRuns “standings” for previous years available? It would be fun to look at some of my favorite teams in the past and see if their seasons were better/worse than they should have been…

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: I would also like that!

10:44
Dave Cameron: Not yet. But I have the spreadsheet back to ’02 if you’re curious.

10:44
Dave Cameron: I will take requests for specific years, within reason.

10:44
Comment From Ruki
Which Cubs prospect will have the least impact next year?

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: Among the ones close, Baez could have the worst impact

10:45
Comment From Micah
Game has become so boring this is now Cubs chat

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: This is the World Series!

10:45
Dave Cameron: This is the NL Wild Card game all over again.

10:46
Comment From Eric G
BaseRuns request: ’03 Tigers!

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: That game would’ve been almost over by now

10:46
Dave Cameron: .265 Win%, .298 BaseRuns%

10:46
Dave Cameron: So not as bad as their record, but worst BaseRuns season in our dataset, by a mile.

10:46
Comment From Guest
Why are you guys so sure that most/all of the cubs prospects will work out so soon? How do you know they wont turn into the Royals prospects?

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: Who’s sure?

10:46
Comment From Sam
This game is boring, and I’m a Giants fan

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: Boy was the KC crowd ever unprepared for this

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: “The National League must be chock full of juggernauts!”

10:48
Comment From Marsupial Jones
Its too bad Dyson cant hit. Would much rather see him everyday then Aoki.

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: He’s good enough to start

10:48
Dave Cameron: Can you imagine if you paid the $1,000 ticket price to get in and see this?

10:48
Dave Cameron: Where would that rank in frustrating life regrets?

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: I figure if I could afford $1000 for a sports game, that $1000 probably wouldn’t mean very much to me

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: Although when I paid $500 to attend a couple of Stanley Cup games that was a god damn nightmare

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: What’s the most you’ve ever paid for an event ticket?

10:49
Dave Cameron: Personally? I think like $75. My parents paid $500 for 4 tickets to the first game at Safeco.

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: AUGH

10:50
Dave Cameron: Jose Mesa ruined our day.

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: Jose Mesa was the this game of closers

10:50
Comment From will
red sox 2013 alcs game 2 was $120 on stub hub 2 days before. best decision I ever made.

10:50
Comment From Guest
$230. 2013 WS game 3. Walk off obstruction. I was there.

10:51
Comment From Ryan
$110 for “touch the roof” seats for Game 2 of the 2001 World Series.

10:51
Comment From Becker
Baseruns request: 2006 Cardinals

10:52
Dave Cameron: .516 Win%, .512 BaseRuns%

10:52
Comment From Gila Monster
Perry Husband isn’t happy about you using his term effective velocity incorrectcly. Effective Velocity is based on different locations makes velocity different due to reaction time. They changed it to proper perceived velocity in Statcast, which is extention based

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: sorry Perry Husband

10:52
Comment From Rated Rookie
A game where the hometeam is getting stomped always seem more boring. A funereal crowd does nothing to make the game seem important.

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: This is a good reminder that there’s no such thing as a crowd that’s loud and supportive during a bad game

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: Everyone shuts up

10:53
Comment From Zeke
2011 Rangers BaseRuns, por favor

10:53
Dave Cameron: .593 Win%, .609 BaseRuns%

10:54
Comment From James
What’s the highest % since 02?

10:54
Dave Cameron: 2011 Phillies: .631 BaseRuns%

10:54
Comment From heyhey
Who hangs up first? The rights to Brandon Morrow + Anthony Gose + Steve Delabar for Giancarlo?

10:54
Jeff Sullivan: This might be the very worst proposal I’ve seen in my entire life

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: And I’ve seen jumbotron proposals

10:55
Comment From Rated Rookie
Thankfully, every baseball game has an intermission to remind us of the unlikely alliance of professional baseball and militarized power.

10:55
Comment From hscer
Who hangs up first? The operator.

10:55
Comment From Guest
What happens if you buy tickets for a game 7 that doesn’t get played?

10:56
Jeff Sullivan: My guess is you don’t get charged unless the game happens. Not actually certain

10:56
Dave Cameron: You have to buy whole strips for the series

10:56
Dave Cameron: Not individual game tickets

10:56
Jeff Sullivan: So then…?

10:56
Dave Cameron: I think they refund the unplayed games afterwards.

10:56
Jeff Sullivan: I bet the refund comes up short of 100%

10:57
Dave Cameron: I think I heard some team tried to just roll over the difference to a season ticket credit for the next year or something.

10:57
Dave Cameron: It didn’t go well for them.

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: No.

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: So almost two-thirds of you figure the Cubs out-win the Royals next season!

10:58
Comment From Guest
Was this team the Marlins after their firesale?

10:58
Dave Cameron: I feel like it was the Nationals.

10:58
Dave Cameron: I could be wrong though.

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: Sounds like the kind of thing you can’t even try to pull off in the social media era

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: Butler almost reached the warning track

11:00
Comment From Daniel C.
Best player name in the series? In baseball?

11:00
Jeff Sullivan: Yusmeiro Petit, probably. Boring series in that regard. Maybe just Joe Panik

11:00
Comment From Helber
Largest BaseRuns % vs Real Win % difference?

11:00
Dave Cameron: 2005 D’Backs: .475 Win%, .402 BaseRuns%, so they won 12 more than expected.

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: “The pitch count itself is a non-issue because he’s so aggressive.” Tom Verducci, on Madison Bumgarner

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: do not understand

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: “Salvador Perez’s swings at balls are a non-issue, because he’s such a strong thrower”

11:02
Comment From Micah
Perez strikes out in 4 pitches

11:02
Comment From David
The Nats gave NLCS ticket priority to people who put a deposit down on 2015 season tickets. So the refunded games became a larger deposit, rather than cash back. But it was for people who had already committed to 2015 season tix

11:02
Comment From Ben
Maybe he means that being aggressive means more strikes and lower pitch counts in general but that is meaningless

11:02
Jeff Sullivan: Hey, Perez did a thing!

11:02
Dave Cameron: The pitcher who can’t do any wrong against the guy who can’t hit.

11:03
Jeff Sullivan: And the pitch was a borderline ball

11:03
Jeff Sullivan: Perez truly is turning in the Miguel Olivo Special

11:04
Comment From Guest
that was a neat catch

11:04
Jeff Sullivan: And now Bochy can safely remove Bumgarner without worrying about anything

11:04
Comment From Deelron
That home run might help the Giants more in the series then if it hadn’t happened.

11:04
Dave Cameron: Truth.

11:05
Jeff Sullivan: Interesting!

11:05
Jeff Sullivan: Although I’d like to give Bochy more credit than that

11:05
Comment From Ben
Would you try Lincecum here? Shake off the rust in case you need him later in the series?

11:05
Jeff Sullivan: Wouldn’t really serve a purpose, but at this point it doesn’t matter who they put in

11:05
Dave Cameron: I don’t think they will. He takes a while to warm up.

11:05
Jeff Sullivan: Last we saw him, he was hunched over in a hoodie, head on his knees. I don’t think he’s moved in two hours

11:05
Comment From Micah
That home run added .04% win expectancy FYI

11:06
Comment From Guest
It was .4% not .04%

11:06
Comment From Guest
What does Baseruns say about the team with the most wins since 2002. 2004 Cardinals, 105 wins.

11:06
Dave Cameron: .648 Win%, .621 BaseRuns%

11:07
Dave Cameron: American Idol is still on?

11:07
Jeff Sullivan: honestly didn’t know either

11:07
Jeff Sullivan: Grey’s Anatomy is still on!

11:07
Jeff Sullivan: amazing!

11:07
Comment From Jon
It seems like the Royals are reliant on great bullpen, which aren’t reliable, and some things they could use–SP to replace Shields, DH to replace Butler–are going to be expensive to replace.

11:08
Jeff Sullivan: Shields and Butler combined for like 3.4 WAR so the Royals can do just fine without them next season

11:08
Dave Cameron: And cost $22M.

11:08
Jeff Sullivan: And while the bullpen can’t be expected to be as good again in 2015, the defense is legit

11:08
Jeff Sullivan: If the Royals aren’t dumb about their new money, they can keep contending

11:08
Dave Cameron: That’s a big if.

11:08
Jeff Sullivan: Sure is!

11:09
Comment From Dano
Contracts being equal would you you rather build your rotation around Kershaw or Bumgarner at this point?

11:09
Jeff Sullivan: Kershaw a bazillion times out of a bazillion

11:09
Dave Cameron: Come on.

11:09
Dave Cameron: Well, that was nifty.

11:09
Jeff Sullivan: So great. So insignificant in the greater scheme of things, but so great

11:10
Comment From Ryan
Tom Verducci did say that Bumgarner is built for October. I also think that he said he’s “built like a brick.” I guess this is why he has manageable pitch counts.

11:10
Jeff Sullivan: Sure as crap wasn’t built for October 2012

11:11
Comment From Guest
Does Bumgarner’s WAR seem low?

11:11
Dave Cameron: People don’t correct for AT&T Park/NL average enough.

11:12
Comment From James
Was born August 1 so there is a chance he was built in October!

11:13
Jeff Sullivan: The AT&T effect on pitching numbers is huge. You can argue how much it affects Bumgarner if you want, but that’s why the WAR is what it is

11:13
Comment From Brad
9.07 K/9 and 1.78 BB/9 for 217 IP seems like it should be more WAR no matter the park. Help?

11:14
Dave Cameron: His ERA-/FIP-/ was 87/89. He just didn’t have a dominant season.

11:14
Jeff Sullivan: Dominant second half! Non-dominant first half. People don’t remember

11:14
Jeff Sullivan: Did Chevy just try to use Mo’ne Davis to sell vehicles?

11:15
Comment From Florko
Rex huddler said today on radio that Moore is the best executive in baseball

11:15
Jeff Sullivan: Rex Hudler was hired for a reason and he fulfills that reason

11:15
Comment From Re:Low WAR
But wouldn’t you prefer Bumgarner to Shields 9 times out of 10 even if WAR doesn’t say so?

11:16
Dave Cameron: Yes, because Bumgarner is better, and you don’t use single season numbers to determine which player is better. Steamer has Bumgarner ahead by half a win. http://www.fangraphs.com/pr…

11:16
Jeff Sullivan: Steamer does *not* get Clayton Kershaw

11:17
Comment From Dano
What kinda new money are we talking about? How much is this one exciting post season worth to Kansas City going forward? Also – Alex Gordon!

11:17
Dave Cameron: Well, that’s more our FIP-WAR.

11:17
Jeff Sullivan: They’ll get like $8-10 million in revenue from these games alone, plus they’ll get greater attendance in 2015

11:17
Dave Cameron: Vince Gennaro estimated that a postseason run like this can be worth ~$75 million over five years.

11:18
Jeff Sullivan: That’s a lot of dollars!

11:19
Comment From Guest
Are the Giants the most boring team in baseball? Consistently decent with a very boring lineup that manages to get into the playoffs and playing boring baseball that they win

11:19
Jeff Sullivan: Pence/Sandoval/Posey bores you?

11:19
Dave Cameron: And that rally ended fast.

11:19
Comment From Guest
Wasn’t the effect on the Yankees even more?

11:19
Jeff Sullivan: Banner day for Aoki, where the banner says “you suck”

11:19
Dave Cameron: Big markets have more potential revenues, yes.

11:20
Comment From David
Jeff do you realize that with the imminent demise of NotGraphs, that you might be our sole remaining provider of baseball-humor related entertainment? Are you up to this task?

11:20
Jeff Sullivan: Heavens no

11:20
Comment From Nick
Good or bad thing to expose all of the Giants lefties to 2 of 3 lefty bullpen arms?

11:21
Jeff Sullivan: Well the Giants just used Lopez. It probably matters not even a little bit

11:21
Jeff Sullivan: Also Duffy and Collins are the worse of the Royals’ three lefty options

11:22
Comment From chuckb
How much longer will it be before 1 of the 3 in the booth is a Saber guy? Someone like Never or someone else who can do commentary but can also provide analytical insight that the token ex – player can’t necessarily provide?

11:22
Jeff Sullivan: You want an analyst who’s also a good and personable talker. There are like eight of these people overall in the world

11:22
Dave Cameron: Wait, why is there a postgame interview with Steve Ballmer?

11:22
Jeff Sullivan: It’s interesting enough to have people taking chances on Verducci given that he never played

11:24
Comment From Dan
What’s wrong with James Shields?

11:24
Dave Cameron: No, really, why is a Steve Ballmer interview a thing?

11:24
Jeff Sullivan: Fatigue and decline

11:25
Comment From Re:Low WAR
Isn’t that because of the aging curve though? Shields has been worth more than Bumgarner for the past 3 years according to WAR. And inxhindsight, wouldn’t you still pick Bumgarner for all 3 years in any park or league?

11:25
Comment From Dan
I’m sad for Royals fans.

11:25
Dave Cameron: Nope.

11:25
Jeff Sullivan: Their team is in the world series

11:25
11:26
Dave Cameron: Bumgarner has a higher ERA- and FIP- than Shields over the last three years.

11:26
Dave Cameron: Shields’ WAR is higher because he’s been better. He’s not anymore, but he has been in the past.

11:27
Jeff Sullivan: I assume people wonder about the real AT&T effect on Bumgarner, since his career home wOBA is .289 and his career road wOBA is .287

11:28
Jeff Sullivan: but that appears like it could be a BABIP thing

11:28
Dave Cameron: And neutral platoon splits don’t mean that your pitcher friendly park didn’t help you.

11:28
Dave Cameron: It could just be that he pitched worse, and the park masked that.

11:28
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah. You can definitely see the dinger effect in there

11:29
Comment From Dan
Is this the worst collection of postseason analysts ever?

11:29
Jeff Sullivan: Tim McCarver

11:29
Jeff Sullivan: Tim McCarver and anyone

11:30
Comment From Dan
I read Dave’s analysis; the Royals 2-3-4 starters are better than the Giants, correct? This is somewhat expected in Game 1 versus BumBum, no?

11:30
Jeff Sullivan: The Royals were slight favorites today

11:31
Comment From Jim
How much does Panda get this off season after looking like a stud this post season ? Stock couldn’t possibly be higher

11:31
Jeff Sullivan: It could be much higher. A few years ago he slugged .552!

11:31
Dave Cameron: 5/100.

11:32
Dave Cameron: I’m going to go out on a limb and guess that the pulled pork sandwich at Wendy’s is terrible.

11:32
Jeff Sullivan: Did that man not realize he was eating Wendy’s at the time?

11:32
Jeff Sullivan: As soon as this is over I’m having my own homemade pulled pork sandwich on a brioche bun!

11:32
Dave Cameron: I have homemade pulled pork in the fridge, but no brioche bun : (

11:33
Jeff Sullivan: 🙁

11:33
Comment From Matt
I could just see MGL crunching numbers in the booth before he starts screaming and calling everyone stupid and wrong. If things get real bad, I’d be worried for the Manager’s safety.

11:33
Jeff Sullivan: I would love MGL on a broadcast, once

11:33
Comment From Bmac
Is it weird that I really enjoy Tom Verducci at times? Does anyone else feel like he can break down individual at-bats at worst tolerably and often engagingly?

11:33
Jeff Sullivan: I find him to be out of his element discussing pitch sequences

11:33
Jeff Sullivan: That’s a very specific complaint

11:34
Comment From Guest
If I moved an extreme groundball pitcher like prime Brandon Webb to AT&T, wouldn’t the park adjustments be unfair?

11:34
Jeff Sullivan: That’s the thing people say about Felix Hernandez and Safeco. It’s got validity

11:34
Jeff Sullivan: depending on what you’re talking about

11:35
Dave Cameron: Park factors are about the value of preventing runs in a specific environment. It doesn’t matter that Webb’s not as affected by the park as others, because others are, making it less valuable to prevent runs at the level Webb would.

11:35
Dave Cameron: Think of a pitcher’s park creating a high replacement level for every pitcher, regardless of the benefit they get from the park.

11:36
Jeff Sullivan: So in short: the adjustments are appropriate, for determining value, but if you’re trying to figure out true talent, then be more careful with your general park adjustments

11:36
Dave Cameron: Right. If you’re trying to say what a player would do in a neutral park, then you want component park factors. For past value, though, you want the run environment factor.

11:37
Jeff Sullivan: And that might be the source of some Bumgarner disagreement. Could just be people talking about different things

11:37
Dave Cameron: Of course, as a lefty, he should get disproportionate value from AT&T’s huge RF area.

11:38
Dave Cameron: So not sure I’d even buy that the park adjustment is unfair to him.

11:38
Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t either, but people might. His home HR/FB is 7.8%; on the road, 10%

11:38
Jeff Sullivan: Felix is my preferred example of a somewhat unfair adjustment

11:38
Jeff Sullivan: Felix is my preferred example of most things

11:39
Comment From Henry
Dave, re: AT&T: super short down the line doesn’t hurt?

11:39
Dave Cameron: The wall is like 50 feet high.

11:39
Dave Cameron: It’s very hard to HR to RF in AT&T.

11:39
Comment From Tripp
Does Statcast use TrackMan technology or is it another company/something proprietary?

11:39
Dave Cameron: It’s Trackman tech with HegoGroup software.

11:39
Comment From Guest
Not using Lincecum here pretty much guarantees he’s not seen in this series right?

11:39
Dave Cameron: (I think the last part is right, but not entirely sure.)

11:39
Jeff Sullivan: Basically. They’d rather have faith in Strickland

11:40
Comment From Tripp
Is Trackman going to overtake PITCHf/x as the main tracking instrument in MLB ballparks?

11:40
Dave Cameron: Seems likely, yes.

11:41
Comment From Guest
Is it plausible that Statcast or something like it will let us consider balls in play as a percentage of an outcome based on trajectory and speed and the like? That would take out park factors and defense, no? Or at least average it.

11:41
Dave Cameron: That’s the hope, yes.

11:41
Dave Cameron: Hey, the game ended.

11:41
Dave Cameron: Hopefully tomorrow is better.

11:41
Jeff Sullivan: A Royals loss!

11:41
Jeff Sullivan: took 3:34!

11:41
Jeff Sullivan: better than I expected early on

11:41
Dave Cameron: Off to go write positive things about Madison Bumgarner for Fox.

11:42
Dave Cameron: Thanks for hanging out with us tonight.

11:42
Jeff Sullivan: We’ll do it again tomorrow! Hopefully the Royals don’t do this again tomorrow





Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.

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@dcholcomb
9 years ago

Where is the live game odds scoreboard?