2014 World Series Game Seven Live Blog
| 7:56 |
: Baseball season ends in roughly four hours. Or five hours, if there are as many pitching changes as I expect. Let’s make this last game good.
|
| 8:02 |
: Royals
|
| 8:02 |
: Inning 1-3
|
| 8:03 |
: 1-9
|
| 8:03 |
Who else will be chatting? |
| 8:03 |
: It’s Jeff and I again.
|
| 8:03 |
: I’m not ready
|
| 8:03 |
: Sorry about that.
|
| 8:03 |
: For the baseball, I mean
|
| 8:04 |
How deep into extra innings will you remain chatting? |
| 8:04 |
: We will chat until this thing ends.
|
| 8:04 |
: Hopefully today doesn’t turn into another chat about ice cream and crockpots!
|
| 8:04 |
: Let’s go, close baseball game!
|
| 8:04 |
What if it’s 23-0 by the end of the 3rd? |
| 8:04 |
: Then Dave will probably bail again
|
| 8:05 |
Perez! Good call, Bruce. |
| 8:05 |
: Yep, good decision for Bruce Bochy.
|
| 8:05 |
If we live in a world where it can be 23-0 in the 3rd, we livei n a world where 24 runs in 6 to come back is possible. |
| 8:05 |
I can’t tell if Jeff is always super excited about everything or just loves exclamation points |
| 8:05 |
: You betcha!
|
| 8:05 |
Woohoo Game 7 heck yeah! |
| 8:05 |
Eric Kratz wins the game for the Royals. Done and done. |
| 8:06 |
I haven’t seen Ishikawa or whatever his name is play a good game in my life. I also haven’t seen many Giants games so… |
| 8:06 |
: There was this one thing he did
|
| 8:06 |
Would you have believed me if I told you at the start of the season that Game 7 of the World Series would start with Jeremy Guthrie facing Gregor Blanco? |
| 8:06 |
: Depends, do I know you and trust you?
|
| 8:06 |
How great is it that SF’s season comes down to Tim “What’s between your legs” Hudson? |
| 8:06 |
: It really doesn’t. He’s just starting the first couple innings
|
| 8:06 |
: The starters today are effectively the first relievers
|
| 8:07 |
: There are no starters today; just first bullpen pitchers.
|
| 8:07 |
: that’s…what I…
|
| 8:07 |
Jeremy Guthrie is starting game 7 of the World Series. I am a Rockies fan. Hold me |
| 8:07 |
: I don’t have new ideas, I just restate yours.
|
| 8:07 |
: #faceoffangraphs
|
| 8:07 |
As a Giants fan I think I’m going to throw up multiple times during this game |
| 8:07 |
: Yeah you guys have had it so rough
|
| 8:08 |
Terrance Gore walk off home run |
| 8:08 |
: inside the park, misplayed by Ishikawa
|
| 8:08 |
: He’s not playing!
|
| 8:08 |
: or hell even played right by Ishikawa
|
| 8:08 |
: not yet he’s not! neither is Gore!
|
| 8:08 |
: Touche1
|
| 8:09 |
How many innings would this game have to go before Selig/the teams/the managers/the umpires/whoever agreed to stop the game and play a game 8 or just call the whole thing a draw? I’m thinking Isner/Mahut levels of absurdity. |
| 8:09 |
: called on account of darkness. it’s happened before!
|
| 8:09 |
If this game ends up not close does this go down as the worst 7 game series ever? |
| 8:09 |
: I might be writing about this soon!
|
| 8:09 |
: (Jeff, don’t write about this.)
|
| 8:09 |
: aw dang it
|
| 8:10 |
: I’ve already calculated average leverage index of each WS for the last 20 years.
|
| 8:10 |
: aLI! aLI!
|
| 8:10 |
: This one is last, by the way.
|
| 8:10 |
: good work
|
| 8:10 |
: So let’s just talk Joe Maddon for half an hour
|
| 8:10 |
: I think he has more range than Ishikawa.
|
| 8:11 |
: where’s Brett Bochy
|
| 8:11 |
: Even the first pitch is late!@
|
| 8:11 |
: And looked low, of course.
|
| 8:11 |
Now, if Selig calls a tie, next year, the World Series will decide HFA in the All Star game. |
| 8:11 |
: There’s that improved change-up.
|
| 8:11 |
: (Don’t listen to HR; first pitch was a fastball.)
|
| 8:11 |
: Buffer yourself again please 🙁
|
| 8:12 |
: just a few seconds
|
| 8:12 |
Yeah what Jeff said. |
| 8:12 |
: Pretty great 0-and-2 pitch
|
| 8:12 |
: Wait until you see the 1-2 pitch!
|
| 8:12 |
: (Kidding)
|
| 8:12 |
: worse!
|
| 8:12 |
If GEICO saves you 15% or more on car insurance, where do you go to save 15% or more on BAbip? |
| 8:12 |
: Oakland
|
| 8:13 |
I wonder what those RF/LF line umps are thinking most of the game |
| 8:13 |
: “Don’t screw up don’t screw up don’t screw up”
|
| 8:13 |
: If it’s a fly ball off the bat of Gregor Blanco, the pitcher did his job
|
| 8:13 |
Iv been that ump and you don’t think, thinking makes it longer |
| 8:13 |
“This is the first time Jeremy Guthrie has ever had anything to pitch for” – international broadcast. WTF? |
| 8:14 |
Seems like this WS is getting dumped on by everyone who isn’t a Royals or Giants fan. Anything positive to say? |
| 8:14 |
: It’s been pretty non-compelling. So far it’s worked to cancel the previous series
|
| 8:14 |
.429 career batting average when his team faces elimination in the postseason. That’s close to what I want, but today’s Wednesday so what about batting average when his team faces eliminaation in the postseason on a Wednesday |
| 8:15 |
: I wonder how Jeter did in elimination games
|
| 8:15 |
: (!)
|
| 8:15 |
: Have you guys seen it yet?
|
| 8:15 |
: Because that was great.
|
| 8:15 |
: That was a hell of a play, that I wonder if Escobar could’ve also made
|
| 8:15 |
The tacos were moosed! |
| 8:16 |
Escobar was standing there waiting for that |
| 8:16 |
: Actually Escobar was totally ready
|
| 8:16 |
: Moustakas could’ve screwed that up!
|
| 8:16 |
Pretty sure Escobar makes that play. Not hit hard at all. |
| 8:16 |
Guthrie is halfway there, according to Dave’s plan |
| 8:16 |
Escobar should adopt Squirrel as a nickname, so that the left side of their infield can be Moose & Squirrel. |
| 8:16 |
Guthrie has already made it further than I thought he would. |
| 8:17 |
Do you guys stop to go to the bathroom during this, or do you hold it? |
| 8:17 |
: Where do you think I’m chatting from?
|
| 8:17 |
: Catheter.
|
| 8:17 |
Will using all these offspeed pitches make it harder for Guthrie to turn over the lineup more than once? |
| 8:17 |
: Probably won’t even get the chance anyway
|
| 8:17 |
What two teams playing a game 7 would bring in the best ratings? |
| 8:17 |
: LA/NY feels obvious
|
| 8:18 |
LA vs LA |
| 8:18 |
Cubs yanks |
| 8:18 |
Cubs vs anyone in game 7. |
| 8:18 |
: It’s going to be a little sad when the Cubs finally break this
|
| 8:19 |
Broken bats are so cool and dangerous |
| 8:19 |
: Can’t believe more people don’t get Colvin’d
|
| 8:19 |
: sweet first pitch
|
| 8:19 |
That’s not even close to being funny, Jeff |
| 8:19 |
: wasn’t supposed to be funny
|
| 8:19 |
: I genuinely can’t believe it doesn’t happen more
|
| 8:20 |
: According to Harold Reynolds, Tim Hudson wants to keep the ball down today
|
| 8:20 |
What happened to Dave? I thought he was using a catheter |
| 8:20 |
: I’m watching the game.
|
| 8:20 |
: And trying to not be a spoiler.
|
| 8:20 |
: Yeah, we’ll shame you
|
| 8:20 |
A larger problem for KC might be Guthrie pitching very well early & fooling Yost into keeping him in too long. |
| 8:20 |
: He knows what he has in the bullpen
|
| 8:20 |
How far ahead is Dave anyway? Does he have a magic TV or something? |
| 8:21 |
: You know NC. It’s a baseball hotbed here, so we get priority.
|
| 8:21 |
: Didn’t keep the ball down
|
| 8:21 |
I think the non-HD broadcast is a little bit ahead |
| 8:21 |
: I’m using an antenna. That’s probably the real answer.
|
| 8:22 |
Why wont they move Escobar off the leadoff spot? |
| 8:22 |
: I hope they don’t do this next year
|
| 8:22 |
Why doesn’t Gordon hit higher in the KC lineup? |
| 8:22 |
: He’s not a “#2 hitter” type, and Yost wants L/R/L/R.
|
| 8:23 |
Bumgarner gets it for SF, but who wins MVP if KC wins? |
| 8:23 |
: whoever has the best game today
|
| 8:23 |
L/R/L/R is actually a pretty good idea in a game like this where there’s gonna be an extreme amount of pitcher swapping, no? |
| 8:23 |
: It’s somewhat helpful, especially with Javier Lopez on the other side.
|
| 8:24 |
Hudson missing a lot already |
| 8:24 |
: Makes sense to test the bottom of the zone early and see how low it goes.
|
| 8:25 |
Would you rather: Close game for 9 innings, or blowout with a comeback? |
| 8:25 |
: Former
|
| 8:25 |
What would have to happen in this game to make this the best World Series ever? |
| 8:25 |
: Don’t think it’s possible
|
| 8:25 |
: Maybe if the Cubs came in and won
|
| 8:26 |
: George Brett walkoff.
|
| 8:26 |
Players should all fight prior to the game to determine batting order. Or do that weird thing where everyone grabs a bat until someone loses. |
| 8:26 |
Are the Royals gonna try to emulate the WC game and run like crazy? Or is Posey decent enough at throwing out runners? |
| 8:26 |
: I don’t think they’ll run much.
|
| 8:26 |
: We know Cain’s hurt, but it’s really not slowing him down at all
|
| 8:26 |
: I bet he’ll be staying in bed tomorrow
|
| 8:27 |
: Especially if they win.
|
| 8:27 |
What is the statistical advantage of alternating handedness in the batting order, if any? |
| 8:27 |
: It’s really stupid to leave yourself open to a situational lefty for multiple hitters in a row
|
| 8:27 |
: It’s still minor, but it’s so easy to avoid
|
| 8:28 |
What is the proper pronunciation of LTOGY? |
| 8:28 |
: Rhymes with liturgy.
|
| 8:29 |
: Pretty good two-seamer, and the rare called strike on a throw down to second.
|
| 8:29 |
: They should just give Cain the stolen base in the box score anyway
|
| 8:29 |
: Dave’s right, by the way — zone gets weird when the catcher throws down to second base
|
| 8:30 |
did Hosmer freeze on that on accident because of the steal? |
| 8:30 |
: There’s a decent amount of evidence that SB attempts screw with hitters, so maybe.
|
| 8:30 |
: But also it was a perfectly-placed two-seamer on the inside corner
|
| 8:30 |
Guthrie perfect through six on 54 pitches, no strikeouts. Take him out? |
| 8:30 |
: Thrown properly, that’s almost an automatic called K if the umpire grants it
|
| 8:30 |
: Definitely.
|
| 8:31 |
I dislike these announcers, but Fox really has great camera work. |
| 8:31 |
: The value of postseason experience
|
| 8:32 |
The about Game 7s (and people being people) is…if this game is epic, people will remember the Series as one of the best ever. (Especially since Ned Yost’s family are the only people who tuned in for the first 6 games.) |
| 8:32 |
: That’s not true, because we chatted it
|
| 8:32 |
: Hit batter. Get the pen up! (Moderately kidding)
|
| 8:32 |
: Reynolds thinks it’s better to just put Sandoval on
|
| 8:33 |
Any new strategy from 2014 sticks out to you? |
| 8:33 |
: Bunting against the shift was up
|
| 8:33 |
Honestly they should warm someone up every inning just in case |
| 8:33 |
Certainly time to warm someone else now |
| 8:34 |
: Not a bad pitch, but Guthrie’s not a good pitcher, so
|
| 8:34 |
: Shut up, Harold
|
| 8:34 |
I want to see a bench clearing brawl. Not going to happen but it would make this series a little more interesting. |
| 8:34 |
: I want to see a bench-clearing hug
|
| 8:34 |
: we’re all in this together
|
| 8:34 |
#hugwatch |
| 8:35 |
Is there a logical reason why Willingham hasn’t seen more time at the plate this postseason. I know he has big L/R splits, but he’s only gotten 4 PA all postseason. |
| 8:35 |
: He doesn’t have much left and the Royals were last this year in pinch-hitting PA
|
| 8:35 |
Teams score more with a man on base than without. Analysis! |
| 8:36 |
: Pence, Escobar laughing at second base. Pressure!
|
| 8:36 |
: And this is why you have a crazy short leash in game 7.
|
| 8:36 |
: This should be Davis, but any reliever is better than Guthrie.
|
| 8:36 |
: Yeah, the Royals can salvage this if they just don’t stick with Guthrie. It’s not too abd to have him for 1-2 innings
|
| 8:36 |
: Nobody throwing…….
|
| 8:37 |
Why isn’t anybody up. It’s honestly mind boggling to me |
| 8:37 |
: Group of panda fans by the dugout
|
| 8:38 |
I thought that would get over Aoki’s head. |
| 8:38 |
: Awful pitch, lucky result for KC
|
| 8:38 |
: He hit the same ball last night.
|
| 8:38 |
Panda fans used only 8 mortgage payments for those seats. |
| 8:38 |
Still nobody up yet? |
| 8:38 |
: Correct.
|
| 8:38 |
Is Shields available today? Haven’t heard anything about it. |
| 8:39 |
So when a pitcher is pitching well… we shouldn’t predict off that. When a pitcher gives up 2 hits.. we should predict off of that? Is past performance predictive on a tiny sample or not? |
| 8:39 |
: Probably an inning but the Royals don’t have the same need in the bullpen
|
| 8:39 |
: Bullpen warming now
|
| 8:39 |
: We’re not predicting based off Guthrie’s struggles. We’re predicting based off the fact that he is bad.
|
| 8:39 |
: And KC’s relievers are great.
|
| 8:39 |
: And first guy to get up is… Brandon Finnegan.
|
| 8:39 |
: Okay.
|
| 8:39 |
re: RLRL hitters, isn’t there also an argument that stacking same handed hitters in a row helps take advantage of platoon advantages? |
| 8:39 |
: Not in a game like this with everyone available to pitch
|
| 8:40 |
Then don’t start him. Don’t use a couple of hits to decide to pull him. |
| 8:40 |
: It’s not the hits that cause you to pull him. It’s the threat of run scoring and the decision about who is best served to stop them from scoring.
|
| 8:40 |
: Are people upset about this?
|
| 8:40 |
: Stop thinking of taking the pitcher out as a reaction to what has happened.
|
| 8:40 |
: This isn’t intellectual inconsistency, this is just observing that Guthrie isn’t good
|
| 8:40 |
: Bullpen management isn’t about rewarding past performance; it’s about getting outs.
|
| 8:40 |
: Absolutely no way that Guthrie should start the third
|
| 8:41 |
: Man I can’t keep up with this queue
|
| 8:42 |
Street fight. Mike Morse vs both of you. Who wins? |
| 8:42 |
: Yeah, sorry if we publish fewer comments than usual tonight. There’s a lot of you.
|
| 8:42 |
: We circle him until he hurts himself
|
| 8:42 |
So what should the leash be at this point. How many more bad PAs? |
| 8:42 |
How many people chatting? |
| 8:42 |
: CIL says 1800
|
| 8:42 |
: Guthrie faced nine batters. He’s done
|
| 8:42 |
Is there a rule that says that pitchers must warm up in the bullpen? |
| 8:43 |
: If they want to warm up, it’s the only place
|
| 8:43 |
: But you can presumably enter a guy cold if you feel like it
|
| 8:43 |
: Hey, it’s Paul DePodesta in a cop movie.
|
| 8:43 |
His name is Peter Brand |
| 8:44 |
: Hudson vs. Butler is a huge advantage for SF here
|
| 8:44 |
How much does the 2-run lead help Tim Hudson? |
| 8:44 |
: handedness *and* GB vs. GB
|
| 8:44 |
: I’m pretty sure he’s trying to get everyone out no matter the score.
|
| 8:44 |
: and a hit! haha
|
| 8:44 |
Jeff you suck at this. |
| 8:44 |
: Analysis doesn’t work!
|
| 8:44 |
Jeff Mulligan |
| 8:44 |
: Don’t bet on baseball!
|
| 8:45 |
: Butler scoring from first on a double!
|
| 8:45 |
This is getting fun. |
| 8:45 |
: Butler just scored from first.
|
| 8:45 |
Man I was wondering if he was going to make it. So slow |
| 8:45 |
Let me repeat that: Billy Butler just scored from first. |
| 8:45 |
: I want Statcast on that so badly.
|
| 8:46 |
: Of course his full name is Billy Ray Butler.
|
| 8:46 |
: Well that’s not good.
|
| 8:46 |
: Ouch.
|
| 8:46 |
: Erik Kratz prediction has opened the door a crack
|
| 8:47 |
Perez is just an inning away from breaking the all time record for most innings caught in a season |
| 8:47 |
Affeldt up in pen |
| 8:47 |
: By the way, for his career, Butler has scored from first on a double 19% of the time
|
| 8:47 |
Affeldt is the right call no? |
| 8:47 |
: Yes.
|
| 8:47 |
the erik kratz walk off doesn’t seem so crazy now |
| 8:47 |
this is helping affeldt get warm |
| 8:48 |
: Moose coming up. I’d go get Hudson.
|
| 8:48 |
: Don’t mess around, especially with Bumgarner saying he’s good for 50-60 pitches.
|
| 8:49 |
: And Hudson vs. Moustakas is a bad matchup, as written about at fangraphs.com!
|
| 8:49 |
Is that 19% number low? What’s league average? |
| 8:49 |
: 42%
|
| 8:50 |
So…is there a reason they want a guy obviously hobbled by HBP on first? Do they just think he’ll be fine in a few minutes? |
| 8:50 |
: You think they’re taking out their starting catcher?
|
| 8:50 |
: Nice running by Gordon there.
|
| 8:50 |
: Wow
|
| 8:50 |
Good thing they had Perez there |
| 8:51 |
: Perez can barely move.
|
| 8:51 |
: Salvador, not Juan.
|
| 8:51 |
That was just a fine example of how Gordon got so much WAR |
| 8:51 |
would you bring Bumgarner in with runners on, or only to start an inning? |
| 8:51 |
: Start an inning, for me
|
| 8:52 |
: So much for that pitcher’s duel.
|
| 8:52 |
WHY WOULD YOU CUT IT?! |
| 8:52 |
: #productiveouts
|
| 8:52 |
: wonder what it would take to score Salvador Perez here
|
| 8:52 |
: A HR.
|
| 8:53 |
: Gordon’s baserunning contributed big there
|
| 8:53 |
: And that’s it.
|
| 8:53 |
: A few batters later than I would have suggested, but at least he’s not messing around here.
|
| 8:53 |
: Yeah, not terrible. Let him get the righty Escobar, then deal with the lefties
|
| 8:53 |
: I sure hope the managers are clear with the pitchers before the game that they’re not going deep
|
| 8:54 |
: Yeah, taking him out against Infante or Escobar wouldn’t have made sense. I would have pulled him for Moose, but this is next best opportunity.
|
| 8:54 |
The announcers shouldn’t really rag on pitchers for not going deep when it’s clear the managers have very short leashes tonight |
| 8:54 |
: Hung pitches badly to Infante and Escobar.
|
| 8:54 |
: Yeah, there are a lot of people whose analysis of SPs in October is completely wrong.
|
| 8:55 |
Guthrie or Finnegan to begin the 3rd? |
| 8:55 |
: No way I’d let Guthrie go back out there.
|
| 8:55 |
: Hypothetically, Dave: if you’re the Giants, would you accept a Perez HBP if it meant the Royals then had to go to Kratz?
|
| 8:55 |
: No.
|
| 8:55 |
: Baserunner too valuable.
|
| 8:56 |
: I agree with you, but I’m only 60% confident
|
| 8:56 |
: I guess Kratz really isn’t that bad
|
| 8:56 |
Kratz isn’t a horrible backup. Maybe if it was a worse backup, though. |
| 8:56 |
How the he’ll have the giants got this far with Peavy/HudsonlVogelsong as their 2/3/4? Baumgarner has been Awsome but he can’t pitch every game. These guys have been awful this series |
| 8:56 |
: Starting pitching isn’t as important as everyone says.
|
| 8:57 |
: Aoki’s not a bad hitter to have up there when the other manager is going situational
|
| 8:57 |
: That was not easy.
|
| 8:57 |
: Whoooaaaaa
|
| 8:57 |
: Beautiful. Jack Wilsonesque
|
| 8:57 |
Wasn’t Peavy actually really good in SF? Also, Hudson was basically a 2 WAR pitcher this year. Not too bad. |
| 8:58 |
: Peavy wasn’t great; he just BABIP’d his way to a low ERA.
|
| 8:58 |
Based upon how Affeldt does (let’s say hypothetically he sails through the 3rd), is it time to bring in Bumgarner? |
| 8:58 |
: I’d probably let Affeldt stay in through Moustakas, then go to a right-hander (Romo?) before bringing in Bumgarner next time Hosmer comes up.
|
| 8:59 |
Dave, isn’t a 3.03 FIP pretty good (regarding Peavy in SF)? |
| 8:59 |
: RIdiculously low HR/FB rate.
|
| 8:59 |
: Depending on things, I might be okay with Romo vs. Moustakas
|
| 8:59 |
: would also get you Romo vs. Perez
|
| 8:59 |
: Moose has bigger splits, right?
|
| 8:59 |
: Probably more helpful to get L/L against him.
|
| 9:00 |
: I figure some of that is canceled by the FB vs. FB split
|
| 9:00 |
The World deserves as much Romo vs Salvy as humanly possible. |
| 9:00 |
: Romo puts the ball in the air a fair amount
|
| 9:00 |
: Hey, it’s Guthrie against lefties.
|
| 9:00 |
: This is bad.
|
| 9:00 |
: Wow, yeah, bad decision here
|
| 9:01 |
: This probably affects the Royals’ win expectancy by a percentage point or two!
|
| 9:01 |
If peak Pedro were pitching for KC tonight, how deep would you let him go? |
| 9:01 |
: 27 batters
|
| 9:01 |
: Yeah, ~6ish innings.
|
| 9:02 |
Bring in Baumgarner now. Let his go until his arm falls off. Gives you the best chance to win |
| 9:02 |
: Baumgarner and Peavey
|
| 9:02 |
: seeing these a lot.
|
| 9:03 |
So he didn’t give up homeruns – it may not be predictive but it still equated with him pitching well in the past |
| 9:03 |
: Just like all the Royals in the second half!
|
| 9:03 |
That looked generous |
| 9:03 |
: Seen that pitch a couple times now called a strike
|
| 9:04 |
: Woof
|
| 9:04 |
: Guthrie with 2 Ks in that inning, had 3 in the postseason before that inning.
|
| 9:05 |
: Bad decision, good results. Yosted!
|
| 9:05 |
He’s gonna leave him in until he gets in trouble isn’t he? |
| 9:05 |
So if Guthrie gets through this inning clean, you know Ned is bringing back for another one! |
| 9:05 |
: Yep.
|
| 9:05 |
Are windup vs stretch splits predictive? |
| 9:05 |
How close is Tim Hudson to the HOF? Has 65 RA9 WAR, which was more than I would have expected |
| 9:05 |
: They can be, yeah, but they also need to be regressed pretty hard
|
| 9:06 |
Dave how pissed are you |
| 9:06 |
: I’m not pissed at all.
|
| 9:06 |
Another golden Sullivan prediction there |
| 9:06 |
: I don’t think I’ve made a prediction in years
|
| 9:06 |
: Even when SBN asked me to I would opt out
|
| 9:07 |
Guthrie = “bad” is really lazy analysis. He is a career 102 ERA+ pitcher, 96 ERA+ this year. He’s roughly league average. |
| 9:07 |
: Using ERA to evaluate a pitcher in front of the best defense in baseball is the definition of lazy analysis.
|
| 9:07 |
: He’s at least 10-15% worse than average
|
| 9:08 |
: He’s about as bad as a regular starter gets
|
| 9:08 |
: And it’s not like the alternative is average. The alternatives are fricking amazing.
|
| 9:08 |
We’re going to find out that Posey is really hurt in a couple of days, aren’t we? |
| 9:08 |
: One of my favorite parts about the post-postseason
|
| 9:08 |
: Hockey players constantly playing through like broken feet
|
| 9:09 |
Is any of the ~4% of home field advantage tied to umpire strike zones favoring home teams? |
| 9:09 |
: Arguably yes
|
| 9:09 |
: Yeah, there’s been some studies supporting that.
|
| 9:10 |
: Ned Yost, Breakout Star.
|
| 9:10 |
Is the WS audience also the audience for the Hunger Games movies? |
| 9:10 |
: parents of said audience, more like
|
| 9:11 |
: Yost preemptively apologizing for going to the bullpen a lot
|
| 9:12 |
: At least Yost says they’re going hitter to hitter now.
|
| 9:12 |
: Why is Yost so calm
|
| 9:12 |
: Later than I would have started it, but he’s not sticking with him too much longer.
|
| 9:13 |
: !
|
| 9:13 |
: Wait til you see this one.
|
| 9:13 |
Wow |
| 9:13 |
WOW!!! |
| 9:13 |
So gritty |
| 9:13 |
If Yost goes 4 with Guthrie, assuming the 4th is not trouble, do you still go Shields in the 7th like you suggested in your FG article? |
| 9:13 |
: Sweet merciful shit
|
| 9:13 |
What’s Affeldt’s speed to the plate? |
| 9:13 |
: If I publish some comments that seem weird, it’s because the queue won’t stop moving.
|
| 9:14 |
Out |
| 9:14 |
He’s out at first |
| 9:14 |
Hosmer was OUT! |
| 9:14 |
: That’s the play the Yankees’ 2B didn’t make right before Edgar Martinez’s double!
|
| 9:14 |
Definitely out. Should have run through the base. |
| 9:15 |
: Let’s say they get the double play. The win-expectancy difference between the double play and first-and-third single is about 18%
|
| 9:16 |
This is taking a while |
| 9:16 |
: So, big double play!
|
| 9:16 |
It’s bad when the broadcast team is complaining about how long the replay takes. |
| 9:16 |
They should take as long as they think they need. It’s the last game of the year. Just get it right. |
| 9:16 |
: Agree.
|
| 9:16 |
: Yeah, we’re already going to be here four hours anyway
|
| 9:17 |
: Such an awesome double play. Changes the game
|
| 9:17 |
How do players defend the dive to first? “I’m too stupid to do anything else?” |
| 9:17 |
: “Instincts.”
|
| 9:17 |
: Why is that instinct??
|
| 9:18 |
: I don’t know.
|
| 9:18 |
: It’s just what they say.
|
| 9:18 |
In this day and age how are there still players sliding into first? |
| 9:18 |
: How are there still saves and closers?
|
| 9:19 |
I like saves as a star. Like RBIs, which, while not instructive, help to tell the story of the game |
| 9:19 |
What does “he’s a ballplayer” mean? It means he gets paid to play a profession sport that involves a ball. |
| 9:19 |
: It means he’s white.
|
| 9:20 |
: And he doesn’t have a standout skill
|
| 9:20 |
: Media is constantly looking for players to praise for assumed work ethic, even if they don’t know that the player actually got where they are by working hard.
|
| 9:20 |
: It’s an easy story to tell and people love to assume its true.
|
| 9:21 |
: fundamentally American
|
| 9:21 |
: Butler didn’t even get halfway down the line on that.
|
| 9:21 |
: He already did his running for the day
|
| 9:21 |
: So currently the hero is Joe Panik
|
| 9:21 |
Affeldt done. Who is next? |
| 9:22 |
: I’d stick with him. Gordon and Moustakas two of next three.
|
| 9:23 |
: “Why can’t we just get in the running car?” girl has a super annoying voice.
|
| 9:23 |
Has Affeldt thrown a single pitch inside since he came in? |
| 9:23 |
: The double-play pitch
|
| 9:23 |
Crawford made a similar play in the regular season. http://m.mlb.com/video/topi… |
| 9:24 |
: good gravy
|
| 9:24 |
: No one warming in the pen. Batter to batter is apparently hypothetical.
|
| 9:25 |
: Seems like if he just gloves that and makes a normal throw he gets him.
|
| 9:25 |
: Infante’s no Panik
|
| 9:25 |
i agree |
| 9:25 |
: The heck was that slowdown about?
|
| 9:25 |
: The slip probably threw him off.
|
| 9:25 |
: Herrera now up.
|
| 9:26 |
: So now second-base defense is the story!
|
| 9:26 |
Herrera up just in time for Giants best hitter right now at the plate |
| 9:26 |
: There’s no way you can leave Guthrie in now.
|
| 9:27 |
: Never should’ve started the inning
|
| 9:27 |
Watch him |
| 9:27 |
: How is this not obvious?
|
| 9:27 |
: He’s not getting him yet.
|
| 9:27 |
: Crazy pants.
|
| 9:27 |
: Lefty batting!!
|
| 9:27 |
: Guthrie vs Belt with go ahead run in scoring position and no out.
|
| 9:27 |
: Don’t want to overstate things but this is genuinely, demonstrably bad.
|
| 9:28 |
: Odds are Guthrie gets Belt out anyway but this is real bad
|
| 9:28 |
: Every bad decision still has a good chance of working out, but this is about as bad a decision as one can make.
|
| 9:28 |
: Herrera has a much higher groundball rate than Guthrie. Good work, Reynolds
|
| 9:29 |
: It’s tag on fly to LF night.
|
| 9:29 |
: Wow, ran on Gordon. Ballsy
|
| 9:29 |
: And that’s it for Guthrie. So they let him face the good LHB and then pull him.
|
| 9:29 |
: Just so weird.
|
| 9:30 |
: Like when Bochy did that with Peavy
|
| 9:30 |
: Best argument is that Herrera wasn’t ready yet, but that’s Yost’s fault too.
|
| 9:30 |
: Belt, for the record, just lifted a pitch on the lower edge of the zone. Good on him to not ground out
|
| 9:30 |
: Yeah, someone should’ve been throwing to open the inning. By which I mean someone else should’ve opened the inning
|
| 9:31 |
At least he didn’t have the lefty up, let Guthrie face the lefty, and then pull him when a righty comes up. |
| 9:31 |
: That would have been worse, yes.
|
| 9:31 |
Re: Yost being low-key, loose, whatever — maybe he’s just intensely arrogant, and wants to prove he can win his way? |
| 9:31 |
: I think he just trusts his players too much
|
| 9:32 |
is the standing O for guthrie appropriate here, royals fans? |
| 9:32 |
: I think it’s a standing O for “we’re in the World Series and we’re not losing yet”
|
| 9:32 |
: Yeah, today, it’s just called clapping.
|
| 9:32 |
: Textbook power vs. power right here
|
| 9:33 |
: Last year Herrera gave up nine home runs
|
| 9:33 |
: Morse breaks his bat but gets a hit anyway.
|
| 9:33 |
: Baseball.
|
| 9:34 |
: Ultra-baseball’d
|
| 9:34 |
: Giants beginning payback for yesterday’s second inning
|
| 9:34 |
don’t want the Giants to win, but the Royals deserve this |
| 9:34 |
The Giants have been doing this all postseason. I really believe half of their hits have been broken bats. |
| 9:34 |
: That was a really good pitch too
|
| 9:34 |
Are there two teams more “Baseball!” than the Royals and Giants? |
| 9:35 |
Do you think he’ll stretch Davis for two tonight? |
| 9:35 |
: He has to.
|
| 9:35 |
He has to do a lot of things that he doesn’t do |
| 9:35 |
: I never understand the “deserve” argument. Why do the Royals deserve anything that the Giants don’t?
|
| 9:36 |
He was saying the Royals deserve to lose because they made bad descisions in this game. |
| 9:36 |
: Oh! Agreed!
|
| 9:36 |
is broken bat BABIP notably lower than other batted ball types? |
| 9:36 |
: I would imagine so.
|
| 9:37 |
: Has to be but we don’t have data
|
| 9:37 |
: The exit velocity of a broken bat hit has to be lower than a non-broken bat hit.
|
| 9:37 |
: That was a perfect pitch
|
| 9:37 |
lower exit velo doesn’t imply lower babip. |
| 9:37 |
: Yes, yes it does.
|
| 9:38 |
: The in-between between awful contact and solid contact is BABIP death
|
| 9:38 |
: So in the previous inning, Panik prevented a rally. In this inning, Infante opened the door for a rally
|
| 9:38 |
I’d say exit angle is more predictive of BABIP. |
| 9:38 |
: It’s both.
|
| 9:38 |
: BABIP on balls hit over 100 MPH is like .800, though, regardless of angle.
|
| 9:39 |
| 9:39 |
: Yes, yes it does.
|
| 9:39 |
: Huh.
|
| 9:39 |
: That’s weird.
|
| 9:39 |
: I only said it once.
|
| 9:39 |
: Refresh. It’ll do that
|
| 9:40 |
Is there a recorded record for exit velocity that you know of? |
| 9:40 |
: HITF/x has been capturing it for a few years. Not publicly available, but it exists.
|
| 9:40 |
: Statcast will have it too.
|
| 9:41 |
Maybe I am misremembering but didn’t somebody hit a broken bat dinger this year? |
| 9:41 |
: It’s happened a few times in the past few years
|
| 9:41 |
: Carlos Peguero did it once, I think
|
| 9:41 |
: I think the broadcast thinks Madison Bumgarner is multi-inning Mariano Rivera
|
| 9:42 |
: World Series ERA, Jeff.
|
| 9:42 |
: That talking point took off in a hurry
|
| 9:42 |
: 73 mph in the back is about the ideal HBP, I would think.
|
| 9:42 |
: What a curious HBP
|
| 9:43 |
: Perez was barely running there.
|
| 9:43 |
Perez was running like a hurt guy running |
| 9:44 |
He was trying to run at least. |
| 9:44 |
: Affeldt this year: 67% grounders
|
| 9:44 |
: Right, not a comment on his effort.
|
| 9:44 |
Hate to say it, but Perez should have bunted. |
| 9:44 |
: Not the worst idea.
|
| 9:44 |
: This is working out for Affeldt perfectly
|
| 9:44 |
: I don’t buy a bunt there. I think he can still swing
|
| 9:45 |
: Might be better for his health to not reach, though?
|
| 9:45 |
You don’t bunt to get Moustakas up against a lefty |
| 9:45 |
: If it’s really that much of a problem, then he shouldn’t be playing anyway
|
| 9:45 |
: Fair.
|
| 9:46 |
: So Affeldt’s probably done now.
|
| 9:46 |
: Beautiful job by Affeldt. They’ve reached the Romo/Bumgarner stage
|
| 9:46 |
: Romo, then Bumgarner, then Casilla?
|
| 9:46 |
: Bumgarner is up and throwing.
|
| 9:46 |
: So skip Romo.
|
| 9:46 |
: Save Romo for post-Bumgarner, then Lopez, then Casilla perhaps
|
| 9:46 |
Dave, how do you know what’s happening in the bullpen? |
| 9:47 |
: Twitter.
|
| 9:47 |
Will offense ever be able to adapt to the bullpen era of baseball? |
| 9:47 |
: Baseball will eventually need to make the zone smaller
|
| 9:47 |
: Yep.
|
| 9:47 |
: The zone is the key.
|
| 9:47 |
: If they want more offense, anyway
|
| 9:47 |
: Read more in the Hardball Times Annual!
|
| 9:47 |
: eventually
|
| 9:47 |
But the zone is getting bigger anyway |
| 9:48 |
: It started getting smaller a few months ago.
|
| 9:48 |
: Might be nothing, but be MLB directive.
|
| 9:48 |
: but might be.
|
| 9:48 |
: Yeah, that’s really interesting to me.
|
| 9:48 |
Has the top of the strike zone gotten bigger or the bottom or both? |
| 9:49 |
: It’s all about the bottom.
|
| 9:49 |
: After Game 7 of the World Series, stay tuned for coverage of Lebron James!
|
| 9:49 |
: Zone has gotten skinner but taller at the base.
|
| 9:49 |
: The lefty strike is dying, but the Altuve strike is getting worse
|
| 9:50 |
I guess Affeldt’s provenance as the original failed KC uberprospect is too old news inside baseball for this crew to tout? |
| 9:50 |
If he’s pitching well you think Bumgarner can go 4? |
| 9:50 |
: Honestly don’t know. Have to see how he looks and feels
|
| 9:50 |
: This is rare territory
|
| 9:51 |
Would you want to try to save your LHP as much as possible for the Royals LHB? In that case, wouldn’t starting with Romo make more sense? |
| 9:51 |
: Probably just not real worried about Infante and Escobar
|
| 9:51 |
: Perez moved okay there
|
| 9:52 |
: Herrera’s changeup is so much fun
|
| 9:53 |
: Would suck for the Royals if they lose because this guy didn’t start the third.
|
| 9:53 |
: Another one. Unfair
|
| 9:53 |
fourth |
| 9:53 |
: That’s what I meant, yes.
|
| 9:53 |
: Although Guthrie shouldn’t have pitched the third either!
|
| 9:54 |
that’s a strike now? |
| 9:54 |
: Another borderline called strike. Not a bad pitch, received well, bodes well for pitchers henceforth
|
| 9:54 |
: Bumgarner time!
|
| 9:55 |
: 0
|
| 9:55 |
If Bumgarner pitches well, would it shock you to see him get the last 15 outs? Again (hypothetically) if he’s pitching well and the velo + movement on his pitches are good, would it be the right move? |
| 9:55 |
: Casilla is the closer. He’ll get the 9th.
|
| 9:56 |
2 days rest . . . no worries? |
| 9:56 |
: Some worries, but not many, since he always throws on this day anyway
|
| 9:56 |
Dave, are you saying that because he should or because he will? |
| 9:56 |
: He just doesn’t always throw important pitches on this day
|
| 9:56 |
: Will. But you probably want a fresh Casilla over a tired Bumgarner at that point anyway.
|
| 9:56 |
Would you mind sharing how many people are in the chat and where that number ranks on the post season chat list? |
| 9:57 |
: 2600, a little less than we had for the AL WC game.
|
| 9:57 |
: For now
|
| 9:57 |
: Yeah, it will go up.
|
| 9:57 |
: Chatters have to leave everything on the field!
|
| 9:57 |
: And I think all 2600 are submitting remarks
|
| 9:57 |
: I’m supposed to be chatting in a field? The wifi sucks there.
|
| 9:57 |
For all this talk about Bumgarner, he could completely fall apart and be the story of the series in an unexpected way. |
| 9:58 |
: Another generous strike.
|
| 9:58 |
: And Posey had to move to the other side of the plate, too
|
| 9:58 |
: When was last time catcher flipped glove like that and still got the call?
|
| 9:59 |
Dave, what do you think about the pitching lining up similarly to your article from earlier today? |
| 9:59 |
: Bochy has done this almost perfectly.
|
| 9:59 |
: That was not a real useful pitch
|
| 9:59 |
giants gonna live/die with bumgarner? |
| 10:00 |
: If he gives up a few runs, he’ll be out.
|
| 10:00 |
pinch hit willingham for aoki? |
| 10:00 |
Bumgarner, Romo, Casilla combine for 12 outs? What’re the Royals odds to at least tie this game? |
| 10:00 |
: Fairly high
|
| 10:00 |
: Absolutely.
|
| 10:00 |
: Bumgarner not anywhere close yet.
|
| 10:01 |
: Have to pinch hit Willingham here.
|
| 10:01 |
: Not the biggest fan of bunting 2-and-0
|
| 10:01 |
: With an RHB.
|
| 10:01 |
: Yeah. Against a lefty Escobar’s not even bad
|
| 10:01 |
: And Aoki’s hitting.
|
| 10:01 |
: Yost is really just something else.
|
| 10:02 |
: Reaalllllyyy believing in that reverse split
|
| 10:02 |
why have Willingham on the roster if not used in a situation like this?? |
| 10:03 |
: I bet Yost likes Aoki against a lefty more than, say, Moustakas
|
| 10:03 |
AOKI IS NOT GOOD AT BASEBALL |
| 10:03 |
THAT WAS THE STRIKE LAST INNING |
| 10:03 |
: He’s pretty good
|
| 10:03 |
: Ishikawa doesn’t get anywhere near that.
|
| 10:04 |
: Also, great positioning.
|
| 10:04 |
: Oh wow, that was all-around excellent
|
| 10:04 |
: Totally read Aoki as slapping the ball to left
|
| 10:04 |
: He’s like reverse-shiftable
|
| 10:04 |
Wow at that call. |
| 10:05 |
: Big zone’s back!
|
| 10:05 |
Low strike there. |
| 10:05 |
: Gameday says that was a really awful strike call
|
| 10:05 |
: And now look what happens
|
| 10:05 |
: It was.
|
| 10:05 |
: Generous strike changes the whole at-bat
|
| 10:06 |
: They’ve got Cain looking up
|
| 10:06 |
: Will be interesting to see if they try another high fastball or maybe a low curve
|
| 10:06 |
: Okay!
|
| 10:07 |
: I didn’t hate the bunt if they would have PH, but man, you can’t give up an out to let Aoki face Bumgarner and hope Cain gets a two out single.
|
| 10:07 |
That has to be it for MadBum, right? |
| 10:07 |
: Huh?
|
| 10:07 |
: No way, not with Hosmer/Gordon due up next inning.
|
| 10:08 |
: Bumgarner is good to go for a short while.
|
| 10:08 |
: Wade Davis warming.
|
| 10:09 |
does Bumgarner not hitting his spots for most of that innings matter? or not predictive? |
| 10:09 |
: Doesn’t matter enough to take him out against good LHBs.
|
| 10:09 |
: Not strongly predictive enough to think it’s predictive in this case. And he was fine against Cain anyhow
|
| 10:09 |
He could settle in, or he could be bad. It’s hard to tell. |
| 10:10 |
Any way Pence takes the MVP? 1.196 OPS |
| 10:10 |
: It would be Pence if it weren’t for Bumgarner
|
| 10:10 |
Giants’ WE is 68% |
| 10:11 |
How much longer for Herrera? |
| 10:11 |
: That pitch was at nipple level
|
| 10:11 |
: Two outs.
|
| 10:12 |
: Sandoval is amazing
|
| 10:12 |
: But then there’s also that
|
| 10:13 |
Last batter for Herrera? |
| 10:13 |
: Yeah, I would think so.
|
| 10:13 |
Sandoval is amazing because he swings at bad pitches, makes bad contact, and sometimes it falls for a hit? |
| 10:13 |
: Nobody else does what he does. He’s not the best player in the world, but he does amaze
|
| 10:14 |
lesser Guerrero |
| 10:14 |
: Such an easy swing at 99
|
| 10:14 |
What’s a food item you’d like to see more of in baseball stadiums |
| 10:14 |
: grilled corn on the cob
|
| 10:15 |
: Elote is awesome.
|
| 10:15 |
That would be terrible to clean up |
| 10:15 |
: I was going to say elote but I wasn’t sure if that would go over
|
| 10:15 |
Camden Yards has grilled corn on the cob |
| 10:15 |
: Nationals park does too. It’s not good.
|
| 10:15 |
: Bummer 🙁
|
| 10:16 |
: Missed his spot by a mile
|
| 10:16 |
: And still got the K.
|
| 10:16 |
: I guess Morse wasn’t looking for that middle-middle elevated fastball.
|
| 10:16 |
: Wow. Real generous ump today
|
| 10:16 |
: Alternatively, maybe the ump is making his decisions extra quickly, before the catcher even does anything
|
| 10:16 |
: That was the rare 0-and-2 changeup at the top of the strike zone
|
| 10:17 |
: Classic terrible pitch, good outcome.
|
| 10:17 |
: Such a bad pitch!
|
| 10:17 |
: Especially to a guy like Morse. That could have gone a long way.
|
| 10:17 |
: Interesting how confident they are with Herrera’s changeup vs. RHB
|
| 10:18 |
Herrera gave them more than expected, three innings. Filthy last inning, a bit of luck this one. |
| 10:19 |
: Right now, by the way, during this commercial break, I’m watching a beetle fight valiantly against my ceiling fan.
|
| 10:19 |
: Neat Bumgarner fact!
|
| 10:19 |
I just turned it on. Did Yost leave in Guthrie too long? |
| 10:19 |
: Yep.
|
| 10:19 |
: What is Hosmer doing?
|
| 10:19 |
Just entering the chat, so this may have been asked. How does a lengthy trip through the postseason effect the Royals payroll next season? Into the owner’s pocket? |
| 10:20 |
: They’re going to get a huge revenue boost, will definitely increase payroll.
|
| 10:20 |
: Will probably write about that!
|
| 10:20 |
: Dibs!
|
| 10:20 |
how huge? |
| 10:20 |
: Probably ~$50M over the next few years.
|
| 10:20 |
: Won’t be instant cash-in-pocket, but season ticket sales are going way up.
|
| 10:20 |
Anyone else completely ready to throttle Joe Morgan? He just keeps saying it over and over I guess until casual fans accept it as fact. But Herrera has one of the highest ground ball pct for a RP in the game. But lets not let facts in the road of “throws hard so it is a shock he gets groundballs” thinking. Argh |
| 10:21 |
: That would be pretty cruel to Joe Morgan
|
| 10:21 |
Fangraphs WE Royals 35%, Betting Markets implied WE 42% |
| 10:21 |
: There’s a called strike on a pitch that wasn’t caught
|
| 10:21 |
: All kinds of unusual called strikes today
|
| 10:21 |
: Said another: ump has sucked.
|
| 10:22 |
: Ump has been interestingly different!
|
| 10:22 |
: “Sucked.”
|
| 10:22 |
: Interesting!
|
| 10:22 |
: This is why people like you.
|
| 10:22 |
: hugs to the people
|
| 10:23 |
: We heard you, Butler
|
| 10:23 |
: Sucked!
|
| 10:23 |
: The high fastball is back with a vengeance
|
| 10:23 |
Why can’t I say it both sucked and was interesting? 🙁 |
| 10:24 |
: I don’t think it’s been *terrible*. Some generous calls but only one real bad one I can think of
|
| 10:24 |
: I can think of ~4.
|
| 10:24 |
: Maybe 5.
|
| 10:24 |
: You have a much better memory than I do for the record
|
| 10:24 |
: But I’m looking at Gameday
|
| 10:24 |
: Nine outs left and Bumgarner looks fine
|
| 10:25 |
4 home WS games plus the extra attendance next year(s) has to be worth 10s of millions for the Royals. |
| 10:25 |
: Here comes Wade Dvais.
|
| 10:25 |
: Man, I’m a typo fest tonight.
|
| 10:25 |
: The current estimate is $1 million per game, right away. Not counting future revenue
|
| 10:25 |
What do you guys think of each team’s pitcher use in general? Agree or disagree with relievers used? |
| 10:25 |
: Giants good, Royals made a mistake
|
| 10:25 |
: Bochy’s decisions today have been almost perfect.
|
| 10:26 |
: Start Perez, Affeldt in the second, sticking with him for multiple innings.
|
| 10:26 |
how many ball/strike calls does the average ump miss? |
| 10:26 |
: What’s the rate, like 88% accuracy on average?
|
| 10:26 |
: Yeah, right around there.
|
| 10:26 |
: Umpires tend to fall between 85-90ish
|
| 10:26 |
: And most of the “misses” are the lefty strike.
|
| 10:27 |
: Is it me or do most LHB stand closer to the plate?
|
| 10:27 |
: Explains, in part, the zone shift
|
| 10:27 |
: They compensate for the lefty strike by standing closer.
|
| 10:27 |
: Chickens, eggs
|
| 10:28 |
: Pretty sure the umpire’s placement is the cause of the lefty strike, or the egg in this case.
|
| 10:28 |
: Inclined to believe you, heard that before
|
| 10:28 |
: Feels like a run for the Giants would be absolutely huge
|
| 10:29 |
: I don’t trust 3-2, but I’d trust 4-2
|
| 10:29 |
: Yep.
|
| 10:29 |
: On the other hand, Davis is impossible
|
| 10:29 |
: Unless Juan Perez is batting.
|
| 10:30 |
End of 6 Fangraphs WE Royals 29%, Betting Markets implied WE 32.5% |
| 10:30 |
: Hey, Juan Perez is batting!
|
| 10:30 |
: Sticking with defense. Bunt!
|
| 10:30 |
Would you guys sacrifice to get that run or go for a 2-3 run inning? |
| 10:30 |
: Marginal value of second and third runs very low.
|
| 10:30 |
: I’d bunt
|
| 10:30 |
: Do what you can to get one more.
|
| 10:30 |
: depending on players, of course
|
| 10:30 |
: The run environment with Davis is also super low
|
| 10:31 |
: Yep.
|
| 10:31 |
: Perez timed his one good hit pretty well
|
| 10:31 |
Dave, you ranked Bumgarner 18th in trade value, behind Yu Darvish, Jonathan Lucroy, and Evan Longoria (among others). Would you change that now, half a season of relative dominance later? |
| 10:31 |
: He’s passed Darvish for sure.
|
| 10:31 |
: Probably in the 10-15 range now.
|
| 10:32 |
: Yeah, first-half Bumgarner wasn’t even great. Since then…
|
| 10:32 |
Strickland for the 7th to build up the confidence going into next year? |
| 10:32 |
: <3
|
| 10:32 |
Wade Davis is a ballplayer |
| 10:32 |
: He is white.
|
| 10:32 |
: So maybe!
|
| 10:33 |
: Davis’ command is extraordinary
|
| 10:33 |
: Except for right there
|
| 10:33 |
This game just wants to contradict you Jeff |
| 10:33 |
: Well the Royals are in the World Series
|
| 10:34 |
: Really good play there
|
| 10:34 |
: Seems like that was kind of routine, despite Joe Buck’s yelling.
|
| 10:34 |
: Probably a 60-75% play
|
| 10:34 |
: That seems low to me, but maybe.
|
| 10:34 |
: Good runner, tough backhand. ehh
|
| 10:35 |
Is Wade Davis a closer next year? |
| 10:35 |
: I think so — he or Holland might get traded, although that could be hard to stomach given this run
|
| 10:35 |
: I know almost nothing about music, but I think this girl has a nice voice.
|
| 10:35 |
: But they’re not going to be cheap
|
| 10:35 |
Why doesn’t the singer need to take off her hat? |
| 10:35 |
Would the Royals be wise to sell high on Holland this offseason? |
| 10:35 |
i agree that cameron knows nothing about music |
| 10:36 |
: These are different notes than I’ve heard before
|
| 10:36 |
Are you expected to put your hand over your heart during GBA? |
| 10:36 |
: That was GBA over a different song
|
| 10:36 |
She was really pitchy on that |
| 10:36 |
I feel like teams would have to overpay to get those two and when I mean overpay I mean get totally ripped off |
| 10:36 |
Answer to the question about taking her hat off: service members are supposed to keep their covers on when outside. |
| 10:37 |
pitchy is not a thing! You can be out of tune, but pitchy means nothing!! |
| 10:37 |
: This offseason could conceivably have Holland, Chapman, and Kimbrel available
|
| 10:37 |
: I’m just publishing random comments about music because I don’t know what’s true.
|
| 10:38 |
How long is Bumgarner’s leash now? |
| 10:38 |
: He’s got at least this inning
|
| 10:38 |
: Yeah, Romo/Lopez/Casilla might enter for the 8th if he struggles.
|
| 10:38 |
: But I think they let him get at least three more outs.
|
| 10:38 |
: Depending on who’s up I like Romo/Lopez situationally in the 8th
|
| 10:39 |
: The commissioner’s trophy is a pretty neat trophy.
|
| 10:39 |
: fun fact: Bud Selig handcrafts the commissioner’s trophy every September
|
| 10:40 |
What if bum dominates this inning? |
| 10:40 |
: He goes back out for the 8th then.
|
| 10:40 |
: Let him see a lefty in the 8th, go Romo, go Lopez
|
| 10:41 |
End of 6.5. Fangraphs WE Royals 33.9%, Betting Markets implied WE 36.7% |
| 10:41 |
: Really good throw.
|
| 10:41 |
: Indeed.
|
| 10:42 |
: So often you see that throw bounced
|
| 10:42 |
Bochy had mentioned that bum would only pitch 40-50 pitches |
| 10:42 |
: I heard 50-60, and he’s at ~35.
|
| 10:43 |
going to start pacing soon |
| 10:43 |
: I’d be pacing now if I weren’t on a computer
|
| 10:43 |
: The Royals are in trouble.
|
| 10:43 |
: Holy crow
|
| 10:43 |
: 36 pitches. He can keep going.
|
| 10:43 |
: Also, Bumgarner’s early struggles proving not predictive.
|
| 10:44 |
: Bumgarner threw all of one fastball in that inning.
|
| 10:44 |
Chance Bumgarner finishes the game? |
| 10:44 |
: Going up.
|
| 10:44 |
: Bumgarner that inning also threw one pitch that was inarguably in the zone. The rest were border or beyond
|
| 10:46 |
Well the royals are not good at walking, so… |
| 10:46 |
: I like that we’re getting Sandoval/Boston questions in Game 7 of the World Series
|
| 10:46 |
End of 7. Fangraphs WE Royals 23.7%, Betting Markets implied WE 25.8% |
| 10:47 |
I take it Holland would pitch the 9th if the score held? Or no? |
| 10:47 |
: He’d better
|
| 10:48 |
: Maybe stick with Davis.
|
| 10:48 |
: Not to be a spoilsport but I do want to remind people that Bumgarner always throws on this day so it’s not like he’s doing anything uncharacteristic. He’s just being a really great pitcher, like he is
|
| 10:48 |
: He doesn’t like to put Holland in until they have a lead.
|
| 10:48 |
: Bumgarner bailing Posey out
|
| 10:48 |
He also doesn’t like to put Herrera in for the 4th inning. |
| 10:49 |
Fear panda. Real MVP. |
| 10:49 |
A bit of a difference between a side session and Game 7 of the World Series. |
| 10:49 |
: Well of course I agree, but it’s not like they roused him from slumber
|
| 10:49 |
: He’s conditioned to pitch on this day
|
| 10:49 |
: More Panda!
|
| 10:50 |
He’s not conditioned to pitch in a competitive game after 2 days of rest. |
| 10:50 |
Adrenaline is still a thing |
| 10:50 |
: I can see both sides.
|
| 10:50 |
: I wasn’t trying to introduce a #hottake. Bumgarner is doing something amazing! But he was ready for this.
|
| 10:50 |
: This is unusual, and few could do it.
|
| 10:51 |
Royals loose because of sticking with the starter, truly terrible decision by Yost |
| 10:51 |
: But this isn’t quite RJ on 0 days rest.
|
| 10:51 |
: Also they have scored two runs.
|
| 10:51 |
: Kudos to this game on not sucking like the others!
|
| 10:52 |
Does it seem off that no one is warming in the pen,I mean even if the chance are .01% you need some quickly, its game 7! |
| 10:52 |
: There’s no harm to it.
|
| 10:52 |
: If you don’t need them, that means you won.
|
| 10:52 |
: If you do, hey, good!
|
| 10:52 |
Do the Giants do something to lower Bumgarner’s workload next year (at least early on) or is the offseason enough? |
| 10:52 |
: He’ll have a really easy spring training
|
| 10:52 |
I gotta say its pretty frustrating to watch the Royals lose the world series because of basically one pitcher. |
| 10:52 |
: The whole lineup has five hits!
|
| 10:53 |
: He should just carry his WS MVP trophy around with him for the whole month.
|
| 10:53 |
: Teammates will probably carry it for him
|
| 10:53 |
Giants haven’t won yet.. |
| 10:53 |
: He’s the MVP regardless.
|
| 10:53 |
: (to answer all those questions in the queue)
|
| 10:54 |
How many are on chat now? |
| 10:54 |
: 3100
|
| 10:54 |
Bumgarner is also starting QB for the niners this Sunday too |
| 10:54 |
: Less of a douche
|
| 10:55 |
End of 8.5. Fangraphs WE Royals 28.2%, Betting Markets implied WE 28.8% |
| 10:55 |
: (7.5)
|
| 10:55 |
You think the manager keeps the bullpen quiet as a kind of psychological booster for his pitcher? A signal of confidence? |
| 10:55 |
OUCH! |
| 10:55 |
: Doubt the pitcher would even notice and care
|
| 10:56 |
: If that’s Avila catching he gets that in the forehead
|
| 10:56 |
: Oof, great two-strike pitch
|
| 10:56 |
: Wow
|
| 10:56 |
: That didn’t look like a swing to me.
|
| 10:56 |
: Okay, maybe it was.
|
| 10:56 |
: And they appealed, too.
|
| 10:56 |
: About as close as it gets.
|
| 10:56 |
: When I saw that “wow” I thought maybe he drilled a ball off the wall!
|
| 10:57 |
: Basically couldn’t argue with that being called either way
|
| 10:57 |
: I was muting myself interestingly!
|
| 10:57 |
why not pinch hit wilingham? |
| 10:57 |
: I don’t like that check swings are subjective but I don’t know what else to do
|
| 10:57 |
: Again, strange.
|
| 10:57 |
: Seems pretty clear Yost thinks Willingham has little to contribute
|
| 10:58 |
In FanGraphs what does the WE stand for? |
| 10:58 |
: win expectancy
|
| 10:58 |
: At least the heart of the order is coming up
|
| 10:58 |
: But Butler is part of said heart
|
| 10:59 |
: If Cain gets out here, I stick with Bumgarner for the ninth
|
| 10:59 |
: Agree.
|
| 10:59 |
: So late on that fastball
|
| 11:00 |
Closing in on 50 pitches, can’t you just trust your (good) closer? |
| 11:00 |
: Hosmer/Gordon much worse against LHPs.
|
| 11:00 |
: There’s Lopez, but you can just have him warming as Bumgarner starts
|
| 11:00 |
You can use lopez for lefties |
| 11:00 |
: Only one of them, probably, because he can’t face Butler in a one run game.
|
| 11:01 |
How closely do you all follow these games if you are live chatting it? |
| 11:01 |
: Today more closely than yesterday
|
| 11:01 |
: Three outs to go.
|
| 11:01 |
: Yeah, Bumgarner for the ninth.
|
| 11:01 |
: I didn’t think we’d be here, but I don’t see Bumgarner coming out.
|
| 11:02 |
: And if he finishes the 9th, this will go down as maybe the most iconic pitching performance of our lifetime.
|
| 11:02 |
: I don’t think either decision would be bad, honestly.
|
| 11:02 |
Bloody sock? |
| 11:03 |
Bumgarner |
| 11:03 |
: This is probably ahead of that.
|
| 11:04 |
It’s 11:01 EDT and we’re headed to the 9th. Shocking! |
| 11:04 |
Bumgarner to .400 WPA on the night. |
| 11:04 |
I mean no offense, but this doesn’t sound like saber metric analysis. Doesn’t long history and careful analysis of data suggest that you lift your tired starter for a fresh arm in the ninth inning of a one run game? |
| 11:04 |
: Platoon splits matter too, though. If Bumgarner was an RHP, I’d be right there with you.
|
| 11:05 |
: Bumgarner is just death on lefties.
|
| 11:05 |
: I think it’s almost dead even. My alternative isn’t Casilla — it’s Lopez, then Casilla
|
| 11:05 |
Is Bumgarner doing anything different from Games 1 and 5? Kansas City KNEW he’d be coming in tonight and they STILL couldn’t get themselves prepared to face him. Just dominant |
| 11:05 |
: He’s a very great pitcher pitching great
|
| 11:05 |
End of 8. Fangraphs WE Royals 14.9%, Betting Markets implied WE 15.8% |
| 11:06 |
Willingham should hit for Hosmer vs. Bum or Lopez, right? |
| 11:06 |
: Bumgarner at 75% strikes
|
| 11:06 |
: Yes, but he won’t.
|
| 11:07 |
: slider
|
| 11:08 |
: slidersliderslider
|
| 11:08 |
Why throw anything else |
| 11:08 |
: sometimes he doesn’t
|
| 11:08 |
I know this is his throw day but you’re choosing to sail into uncharted waters in the most important game of the season. |
| 11:09 |
: Yeah, it’s definitely not an obvious right or wrong pick.
|
| 11:09 |
: This is a big gray area.
|
| 11:09 |
: It’s not completely uncharted. We start with the foundation of Bumgarner being good
|
| 11:09 |
: It’s not awful to leave him in, it’s not awful to take him out. So Bochy shouldn’t be criticized either way
|
| 11:10 |
Posey looks likes a bad framer this series. Is this the case? |
| 11:10 |
: No, he’s good
|
| 11:10 |
: Here comes history, one way or the other.
|
| 11:10 |
: What a damn thing this is
|
| 11:11 |
: 0
|
| 11:11 |
: Casilla warming.
|
| 11:11 |
: 80% of people backing Bumgarner here
|
| 11:12 |
: but 40% of people saying the Royals at least tie it up…
|
| 11:12 |
: Interesting!
|
| 11:12 |
I would have loved to see Morse play short |
| 11:12 |
: Trust us, no you wouldn’t
|
| 11:13 |
Is Bumgarner the only player playing in this game? |
| 11:13 |
: And this is about as good as baseball gets.
|
| 11:13 |
: Don’t spoil anything, Dave, please!
|
| 11:13 |
: Here we go.
|
| 11:13 |
: I will shut up now.
|
| 11:14 |
End of 8.5. Fangraphs WE Royals 18.1%, Betting Markets implied WE 17.6% |
| 11:14 |
: EVERY PITCH
|
| 11:14 |
: Slow strike call there
|
| 11:15 |
: Good call, though
|
| 11:15 |
: This inning needs to feature an SB attempt
|
| 11:15 |
: 1 down.
|
| 11:15 |
: Oh my god
|
| 11:15 |
Exclamation points! |
| 11:15 |
: Perfect execution
|
| 11:16 |
: I think you’re getting high fastballs, Gordon.
|
| 11:16 |
: (when he’s up)
|
| 11:16 |
: Butler’s a little scary. Bad power numbers, but good power ability
|
| 11:16 |
2 Down |
| 11:16 |
: Bad power numbers
|
| 11:17 |
: Welp
|
| 11:17 |
: Best vs. best right here
|
| 11:17 |
Last batter for Bum no matter the outcome? |
| 11:17 |
Brad Ausmus should have used Madison Bumgarner more in the ALDS. |
| 11:17 |
: I’m having trouble breathing
|
| 11:17 |
: (!)
|
| 11:18 |
: I mean.
|
| 11:18 |
: Holy moly.
|
| 11:18 |
: Willingham now.
|
| 11:18 |
: lol
|
| 11:18 |
: if that had kept up a few seconds longer…
|
| 11:18 |
: No doubles defense, so, have a triple!
|
| 11:18 |
: Optimistic Posey 🙁
|
| 11:19 |
: Sticking with Perez.
|
| 11:19 |
kjawe;flkajwef;lkawjef;lakwjefa |
| 11:19 |
: Bad Perez.
|
| 11:19 |
: I would be tempted to PR Gore right now.
|
| 11:19 |
: Tell him to go on any pitch in the dirt.
|
| 11:19 |
: so ballsy
|
| 11:20 |
: (Salvador Perez is having a bad at-bat)
|
| 11:20 |
: WHAT ARE YOU DOING SALVADOR
|
| 11:20 |
: catchers have such shitty discipline
|
| 11:20 |
heartbeat..rising |
| 11:20 |
: I mean why not try again, right
|
| 11:20 |
: Hey, look, a high fastball.
|
| 11:21 |
: man does he ever want that pitch
|
| 11:21 |
: Congratulations to the World Champs.
|
| 11:21 |
: Madison Bumgarner.
|
| 11:22 |
: I can’t even digest this
|
| 11:22 |
: Last out on a high fastball
|
| 11:22 |
: We’re going to remember Bumgarner’s 2014 forever.
|
| 11:22 |
Worst World Series Ever |
| 11:22 |
: But an unforgettable Game 7
|
| 11:22 |
: or at least a Game 7 with an unforgettable part of it
|
| 11:23 |
: I guess the rest was unremarkable
|
| 11:23 |
: I was going to try and publish a contradictory comment but it’s gone because there are so many.
|
| 11:23 |
So every other MLB team should just punt the 2016 season, right? |
| 11:23 |
Bumgarner told Posey “I love you” |
| 11:24 |
Congratulations to the World Series champion, Madison Bumgarner, featuring special guest stars the San Francisco Giants. |
| 11:24 |
: points to Chris
|
| 11:24 |
: Pretty sweet way for Sandoval’s SF career to end
|
| 11:24 |
: Nate Silver @NateSilver538
You send Gordon, and it’s one of the 5 greatest baseball moments ever, regardless of whether he scores. |
| 11:24 |
: Nate’s right.
|
| 11:24 |
: Here’s Bumgarner, all calm-like
|
| 11:24 |
: Does he know what he just did?
|
| 11:25 |
: Probably not yet
|
| 11:25 |
: “We just won the World Series. It’s hard to be tired.”
|
| 11:25 |
: This guy.
|
| 11:26 |
: My heart is still racing
|
| 11:26 |
.572 WPA for Bumgarner. That’s unreal. |
| 11:26 |
: Glad to have a great game to finish this series off.
|
| 11:26 |
: It doesn’t matter what gets written about this. Everything will pale in comparison to what he simply did on the field
|
| 11:27 |
: A little rough for the Royals that they lose because Yost stuck with Guthrie too long.
|
| 11:27 |
: Tomorrow’s FG content: “go back and watch Bumgarner some more”
|
| 11:27 |
: They also lost because they didn’t score, and Joe Panik made a great play!
|
| 11:27 |
: And Morse got kind of lucky!
|
| 11:27 |
: Thanks for spending your evenings with us, everyone.
|
| 11:27 |
: And spending so much time on FG this year.
|
| 11:28 |
: You guys are the best!
|
| 11:28 |
: And Dave is the best
|
| 11:28 |
: No, that’s Madison Bumgarner.
|
| 11:28 |
: But you guys are good too!
|
| 11:28 |
: Congrats again, San Francisco.
|
| 11:28 |
: G’night all!
|
| 11:29 |
: Thanks all around in general. So long! Miss you, baseball!
|
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Butler running all full speed is hysterical