2014 ZiPS Projections – Houston Astros

After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Houson Astros. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / San Diego / Seattle / St. Louis / Tampa Bay / Toronto.

Batters
Unlike the blouse of an Olympic-level figure skater, the Houston Astros’ roster is not studded with bright and/or shining stars. That said, relative to the amount, in dollars, which that same roster is likely to be compensated in 2014 — the field-playing part, at least — they’ll actually provide some value, as none are projected to be worse than replacement-level, either.

As was the mostly the case for the 2013 edition of the Astros, this next season will be dedicated, it appears, to evaluating which of the players on the current roster are worthy of retaining as the club looks ahead to contending in the future. Here’s a summary of ZiPS’ opinion on the matter: Jose Altuve and Dexter Fowler — and probably also Matt Dominguez and Max Stassi — are about average. Jason Castro and George Springer are probably better than that, despite the fact that the latter has recorded zero major-league plate appearances. Everyone else? Not so much.

Pitchers
As part of the three-year deal he signed this offseason with the Astros, right-hander Scott Feldman is due $12 million in 2014. That makes Feldman the highest-paid Houston pitcher by nearly $8 million. It’s also a bit misleading: as managing editor Dave Cameron notes in a recent edition of the podcast, Feldman’s contract is front-loaded — mostly as a result, probably, of the Astros’ attempt to present some semblance of a payroll to MLB and the players’ union.

Feldman and other right-hander Jarred Cosart are the only pitchers projected by ZiPS to reach even the one-win threshold. Indeed, indications indicate that, given the proper sequence of events, that a reliever could lead the club’s pitchers in WAR. Not ideal, that — but again, a result of the organization’s parsimony, at the moment

Bench/Prospects
Prospects! Houston has them. As noted above, George Springer would appear to be quite good, already — and, it would appear, a legitimate early candidate for Rookie of the Year. After Springer, there’s promise, too — just not the sort that’s likely to produce many wins in 2014. Catchers Stassi and Tyler Heineman both have promise. Ronald Torreyes, acquired last year from the Cubs in a trade for two of the Astros’ international bonus pool slots, is also projected to be useful.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Astros, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Jason Castro	L	27	C	437	56	98	26	1	14	50	1	1
George Springer	R	24	CF	607	86	127	22	4	26	74	27	7
Dexter Fowler	B	28	CF	533	59	111	15	5	12	38	15	7
Jose Altuve	R	24	2B	680	78	180	33	4	7	53	34	14
Matt Dominguez	R	24	3B	600	63	138	28	1	17	74	0	1
Max Stassi	R	23	C	369	42	80	17	1	11	40	2	1
Tyler Heineman	B	23	C	372	48	79	17	1	5	37	3	3
Chris Carter	R	27	1B	551	71	109	24	2	28	79	3	1
Ronald Torreyes	R	21	2B	489	55	117	21	4	5	42	7	2
Rene Garcia	R	24	C	380	37	89	15	1	2	28	2	3
L.J. Hoes	R	24	RF	629	69	154	28	4	6	48	15	9
Jonathan Villar	B	23	SS	546	62	115	19	5	10	44	37	11
Ryan Jackson	R	26	SS	562	46	119	22	2	5	36	5	1
Jesus Guzman	R	30	1B	400	46	90	22	1	12	56	5	2
Delino DeShields	R	21	2B	587	73	126	19	6	6	44	49	19
Carlos Corporan	B	30	C	265	24	55	10	1	7	27	0	1
Robbie Grossman	B	24	CF	616	74	121	24	3	8	43	14	11
Preston Tucker	L	23	RF	481	61	114	20	1	13	52	2	1
Jon Singleton	L	22	1B	474	58	96	19	2	15	47	3	1
Jonathan Meyer	R	23	3B	572	62	126	22	1	10	51	3	4
Domingo Santana	R	21	RF	514	65	99	20	2	19	59	9	4
Marwin Gonzalez	B	25	SS	419	42	95	20	1	5	29	8	4
Cesar Izturis	B	34	SS	169	11	38	7	1	1	12	1	1
Brett Wallace	L	27	1B	569	68	123	26	2	19	66	1	1
Gregorio Petit	R	29	SS	507	49	106	20	1	5	40	4	2
Eric Thames	L	27	RF	536	61	119	24	3	15	53	5	2
J.D. Martinez	R	26	LF	505	51	118	25	1	11	64	2	1
Adron Chambers	L	27	RF	459	48	91	14	4	7	33	13	5
Leo Heras	L	24	LF	529	66	111	16	8	10	44	12	7
Jiovanni Mier	R	23	SS	383	38	71	11	1	3	24	8	9
Marc Krauss	L	26	LF	525	57	98	23	2	15	51	4	3
Cody Clark	R	32	C	216	17	39	8	0	2	12	0	0
Japhet Amador	R	27	1B	483	51	103	16	1	14	51	0	1
Michael Burgess	L	25	LF	446	40	80	20	1	10	41	1	1
Erik Castro	L	26	1B	470	51	85	18	0	11	44	1	3

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Jason Castro	437	10.8%	24.9%	.183	.318	.256	.337	.439	.335
George Springer	607	9.9%	31.1%	.202	.312	.237	.319	.439	.335
Dexter Fowler	533	13.7%	28.3%	.135	.343	.247	.354	.382	.328
Jose Altuve	680	5.1%	12.5%	.099	.317	.285	.323	.384	.308
Matt Dominguez	600	5.3%	15.8%	.146	.270	.249	.294	.395	.300
Max Stassi	369	5.1%	26.6%	.155	.296	.238	.288	.393	.298
Tyler Heineman	372	5.6%	12.4%	.101	.258	.237	.298	.338	.281
Chris Carter	551	11.4%	33.8%	.233	.300	.228	.319	.461	.340
Ronald Torreyes	489	5.3%	9.8%	.099	.284	.264	.313	.363	.296
Rene Garcia	380	3.9%	16.6%	.064	.295	.248	.281	.312	.260
L.J. Hoes	629	8.4%	16.7%	.095	.322	.271	.337	.366	.313
Jonathan Villar	546	7.3%	27.8%	.121	.319	.235	.295	.356	.287
Ryan Jackson	562	7.3%	21.4%	.081	.295	.235	.292	.316	.269
Jesus Guzman	400	8.5%	22.8%	.167	.301	.249	.318	.416	.320
Delino DeShields	587	8.0%	25.0%	.094	.323	.240	.311	.334	.290
Carlos Corporan	265	5.3%	26.4%	.137	.289	.228	.285	.365	.280
Robbie Grossman	616	11.2%	27.1%	.102	.315	.228	.321	.330	.289
Preston Tucker	481	6.7%	17.7%	.137	.290	.257	.310	.394	.311
Jon Singleton	474	12.2%	32.7%	.165	.329	.233	.325	.398	.319
Jonathan Meyer	572	5.4%	24.5%	.101	.298	.236	.278	.337	.271
Domingo Santana	514	8.0%	37.9%	.176	.320	.214	.290	.390	.302
Marwin Gonzalez	419	4.5%	15.3%	.094	.279	.244	.279	.338	.267
Cesar Izturis	169	4.1%	11.8%	.076	.270	.242	.277	.318	.255
Brett Wallace	569	6.9%	31.5%	.168	.324	.238	.304	.406	.311
Gregorio Petit	507	5.5%	19.9%	.079	.277	.227	.275	.306	.258
Eric Thames	536	6.9%	26.7%	.154	.312	.244	.305	.398	.309
J.D. Martinez	505	6.3%	23.2%	.129	.313	.253	.303	.382	.301
Adron Chambers	459	8.5%	26.4%	.107	.300	.225	.300	.332	.279
Leo Heras	529	7.6%	26.8%	.129	.307	.232	.294	.361	.286
Jiovanni Mier	383	8.9%	25.8%	.065	.286	.210	.286	.275	.249
Marc Krauss	525	10.3%	30.1%	.156	.283	.213	.298	.369	.296
Cody Clark	216	4.2%	22.7%	.071	.250	.198	.234	.269	.218
Japhet Amador	483	6.4%	24.8%	.135	.283	.231	.284	.366	.285
Michael Burgess	446	8.5%	31.8%	.129	.277	.199	.271	.328	.267
Erik Castro	470	9.1%	37.4%	.121	.312	.201	.276	.322	.265

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Jason Castro	437	5.3	113	1	3.3	Terry Kennedy
George Springer	607	5.2	107	-1	3.3	Mike Cameron
Dexter Fowler	533	4.9	104	-4	2.3	Jerry Mumphrey
Jose Altuve	680	4.8	95	-4	2.0	Roberto Alomar
Matt Dominguez	600	4.1	89	4	1.9	Casey Webster
Max Stassi	369	4.0	86	3	1.8	John Buck
Tyler Heineman	372	3.5	76	4	1.5	Brian Moon
Chris Carter	551	5.2	113	-4	1.3	Orestes Destrade
Ronald Torreyes	489	4.2	87	0	1.2	Placido Polanco
Rene Garcia	380	3.0	64	6	1.1	Ken Huckaby
L.J. Hoes	629	4.5	95	-1	1.1	Dave Gallagher
Jonathan Villar	546	4.0	79	-5	1.1	Mariano Duncan
Ryan Jackson	562	3.3	69	2	0.8	Jack Hannahan
Jesus Guzman	400	4.8	101	0	0.7	Marty Cordova
Delino DeShields	587	3.9	79	-5	0.6	Juan Bell
Carlos Corporan	265	3.6	79	-1	0.6	Dave Parrish
Robbie Grossman	616	3.5	81	-5	0.5	Rich Becker
Preston Tucker	481	4.4	93	-2	0.5	Daryle Ward
Jon Singleton	474	4.6	99	-2	0.5	Mario Valdez
Jonathan Meyer	572	3.2	69	5	0.5	Jack Hannahan
Domingo Santana	514	3.9	86	-1	0.4	Jim Lindeman
Marwin Gonzalez	419	3.4	70	-1	0.3	Chad Tredaway
Cesar Izturis	169	3.1	65	2	0.2	Rafael Bournigal
Brett Wallace	569	4.4	94	-3	0.1	Travis Ishikawa
Gregorio Petit	507	2.9	61	1	0.1	Juan Castro
Eric Thames	536	4.4	93	-7	0.1	LaVel Freeman
J.D. Martinez	505	4.2	88	-4	0.0	Ken Harvey
Adron Chambers	459	3.6	75	2	-0.1	Kevin Koslofski
Leo Heras	529	3.7	80	0	-0.1	Nathan Haynes
Jiovanni Mier	383	2.4	57	1	-0.2	Niuman Romero
Marc Krauss	525	3.7	83	-4	-0.3	Chris Weinke
Cody Clark	216	2.1	39	-2	-0.6	Charlie Greene
Japhet Amador	483	3.6	78	-1	-0.8	Gabriel Martinez
Michael Burgess	446	3.0	65	1	-0.8	John Fantauzzi
Erik Castro	470	2.9	65	-3	-1.7	Tate Seefried

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Jarred Cosart	R	24	26	25	132.0	95	69	11	132	67	63
Scott Feldman	R	31	26	22	128.3	97	39	16	133	67	63
Jesse Crain	R	32	47	0	45.0	52	17	5	39	18	17
Erik Bedard	L	35	24	22	118.3	112	56	16	120	67	63
Luis Cruz	L	23	30	21	129.3	106	53	15	136	75	70
Lucas Harrell	R	29	30	23	145.0	101	66	17	155	86	80
Dallas Keuchel	L	26	30	26	156.0	103	52	19	177	93	87
Darin Downs	L	29	46	0	52.0	48	21	5	51	26	24
Raul Valdes	L	36	33	8	73.3	62	22	11	78	42	39
Matt Albers	R	31	57	0	59.7	48	25	6	58	30	28
Nick Tropeano	R	23	27	22	129.0	102	58	16	142	78	73
Edgar Gonzalez	R	31	21	14	83.3	52	25	12	95	50	47
Chia-Jen Lo	R	28	31	0	32.0	29	13	4	32	17	16
Chad Qualls	R	35	60	0	54.7	38	17	6	58	29	27
Josh Fields	R	28	45	0	50.0	51	24	7	48	27	25
Alex White	R	25	21	20	101.3	73	48	15	111	63	59
Peter Moylan	R	35	34	0	35.3	26	17	4	38	20	19
Collin McHugh	R	27	27	24	132.0	94	50	18	149	82	77
Brad Peacock	R	26	29	25	137.0	126	63	23	141	86	80
Sergio Escalona	L	29	32	0	26.0	22	12	4	27	16	15
Anthony Bass	R	26	35	16	110.0	77	41	16	124	68	64
Jason Stoffel	R	25	55	0	59.0	45	30	6	62	34	32
Asher Wojciechowski	R	25	26	23	128.7	83	51	18	147	82	77
Kevin Chapman	L	26	58	0	61.7	57	44	7	60	36	34
David Martinez	R	26	31	18	119.7	68	39	17	141	77	72
Jose Cisnero	R	25	41	0	64.7	64	35	9	66	39	36
Brett Oberholtzer	L	24	27	25	141.7	100	47	26	159	92	86
Patrick Urckfitz	L	25	49	0	64.0	39	32	6	71	39	36
Jake Buchanan	R	24	29	22	136.3	69	41	18	166	89	83
Josh Zeid	R	27	61	0	63.0	58	36	9	64	39	36
Mike Foltynewicz	R	22	29	23	119.3	88	63	18	132	79	74
Rudy Owens	L	26	15	15	80.3	47	33	15	97	58	54
Hector Ambriz	R	30	55	0	59.7	44	28	9	67	40	37
Bobby Doran	R	25	28	22	126.0	72	40	21	149	86	80
Jorge de Leon	R	26	47	6	70.0	43	35	11	81	49	46
Paul Clemens	R	26	32	19	116.3	78	46	21	136	81	76
Rhiner Cruz	R	27	54	0	60.7	47	42	10	67	44	41
Ross Seaton	R	24	25	24	127.0	64	49	29	165	106	99

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Jarred Cosart	132.0	597	15.9%	11.6%	.292	4.30	4.80	108	120
Scott Feldman	128.3	557	17.4%	7.0%	.293	4.42	4.57	111	114
Jesse Crain	45.0	191	27.2%	8.9%	.293	3.40	3.65	85	91
Erik Bedard	118.3	531	21.1%	10.5%	.302	4.79	4.79	120	120
Luis Cruz	129.3	577	18.4%	9.2%	.306	4.87	4.74	122	118
Lucas Harrell	145.0	656	15.4%	10.1%	.296	4.97	4.97	124	124
Dallas Keuchel	156.0	697	14.8%	7.5%	.306	5.02	4.79	126	120
Darin Downs	52.0	228	21.1%	9.2%	.305	4.15	4.13	104	103
Raul Valdes	73.3	320	19.4%	6.9%	.303	4.79	4.73	120	118
Matt Albers	59.7	262	18.3%	9.5%	.287	4.22	4.41	106	110
Nick Tropeano	129.0	587	17.4%	9.9%	.313	5.09	5.04	127	126
Edgar Gonzalez	83.3	370	14.1%	6.8%	.300	5.08	5.12	127	128
Chia-Jen Lo	32.0	141	20.6%	9.2%	.298	4.50	4.58	113	114
Chad Qualls	54.7	239	15.9%	7.1%	.294	4.45	4.26	111	106
Josh Fields	50.0	222	23.0%	10.8%	.297	4.50	4.67	113	117
Alex White	101.3	463	15.8%	10.4%	.299	5.24	5.39	131	135
Peter Moylan	35.3	161	16.2%	10.6%	.304	4.84	4.90	121	122
Collin McHugh	132.0	595	15.8%	8.4%	.308	5.25	5.10	131	127
Brad Peacock	137.0	615	20.5%	10.2%	.299	5.26	5.33	132	133
Sergio Escalona	26.0	117	18.8%	10.3%	.299	5.19	5.26	130	132
Anthony Bass	110.0	495	15.6%	8.3%	.303	5.24	5.09	131	127
Jason Stoffel	59.0	269	16.7%	11.2%	.304	4.88	4.72	122	118
Asher Wojciechowski	128.7	584	14.2%	8.7%	.305	5.39	5.36	135	134
Kevin Chapman	61.7	289	19.7%	15.2%	.299	4.96	5.32	124	133
David Martinez	119.7	539	12.6%	7.2%	.305	5.42	5.32	136	133
Jose Cisnero	64.7	295	21.7%	11.9%	.308	5.01	4.77	125	119
Brett Oberholtzer	141.7	631	15.8%	7.4%	.295	5.46	5.55	137	139
Patrick Urckfitz	64.0	295	13.2%	10.8%	.304	5.06	4.91	127	123
Jake Buchanan	136.3	616	11.2%	6.7%	.309	5.48	5.21	137	130
Josh Zeid	63.0	289	20.1%	12.5%	.302	5.14	5.28	129	132
Mike Foltynewicz	119.3	553	15.9%	11.4%	.304	5.58	5.75	140	144
Rudy Owens	80.3	371	12.7%	8.9%	.303	6.05	6.09	151	152
Hector Ambriz	59.7	274	16.1%	10.2%	.305	5.58	5.40	140	135
Bobby Doran	126.0	567	12.7%	7.1%	.301	5.71	5.64	143	141
Jorge de Leon	70.0	326	13.2%	10.7%	.302	5.91	5.94	148	148
Paul Clemens	116.3	531	14.7%	8.7%	.303	5.88	5.75	147	144
Rhiner Cruz	60.7	291	16.1%	14.4%	.303	6.08	6.22	152	156
Ross Seaton	127.0	595	10.8%	8.2%	.306	7.02	6.69	176	167

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Jarred Cosart	132.0	6.48	4.70	0.75	93	1.3	Mike Torrez
Scott Feldman	128.3	6.80	2.74	1.12	91	1.0	Dana Kiecker
Jesse Crain	45.0	10.40	3.40	1.00	118	0.5	Jeff Nelson
Erik Bedard	118.3	8.52	4.26	1.22	83	0.4	Mark Langston
Luis Cruz	129.3	7.38	3.69	1.04	82	0.3	Randy Keisler
Lucas Harrell	145.0	6.27	4.10	1.06	81	0.2	Don Black
Dallas Keuchel	156.0	5.94	3.00	1.10	80	0.1	Jeff Mutis
Darin Downs	52.0	8.31	3.63	0.87	96	0.1	Matt Whisenant
Raul Valdes	73.3	7.61	2.70	1.35	84	0.0	Travis Driskill
Matt Albers	59.7	7.24	3.77	0.90	95	0.0	Mike Koplove
Nick Tropeano	129.0	7.12	4.05	1.12	79	0.0	Chris Hook
Edgar Gonzalez	83.3	5.62	2.70	1.30	79	0.0	Dave Telgheder
Chia-Jen Lo	32.0	8.16	3.66	1.13	89	-0.1	Jesus Colome
Chad Qualls	54.7	6.25	2.80	0.99	90	-0.1	Kirk Bullinger
Josh Fields	50.0	9.18	4.32	1.26	89	-0.2	Johnny Ruffin
Alex White	101.3	6.49	4.26	1.33	76	-0.2	Dave Coggin
Peter Moylan	35.3	6.63	4.33	1.02	83	-0.3	Ernie Camacho
Collin McHugh	132.0	6.41	3.41	1.23	76	-0.3	John Snyder
Brad Peacock	137.0	8.28	4.14	1.51	76	-0.3	Donnie Elliott
Sergio Escalona	26.0	7.62	4.15	1.38	77	-0.3	Joey Eischen
Anthony Bass	110.0	6.30	3.35	1.31	76	-0.4	Casey Daigle
Jason Stoffel	59.0	6.86	4.58	0.92	82	-0.5	Marc Pisciotta
Asher Wojciechowski	128.7	5.80	3.57	1.26	74	-0.5	Peter Bauer
Kevin Chapman	61.7	8.31	6.42	1.02	81	-0.5	Scott Wiggins
David Martinez	119.7	5.11	2.93	1.28	74	-0.6	Vicente Bonilla
Jose Cisnero	64.7	8.90	4.87	1.25	80	-0.6	Ken Giard
Brett Oberholtzer	141.7	6.35	2.99	1.65	73	-0.6	Doug Simons
Patrick Urckfitz	64.0	5.48	4.50	0.84	79	-0.6	Brian Adams
Jake Buchanan	136.3	4.56	2.71	1.19	73	-0.7	Mike Thompson
Josh Zeid	63.0	8.29	5.14	1.29	78	-0.7	Mike Shade
Mike Foltynewicz	119.3	6.64	4.75	1.36	72	-0.7	Jon Pridie
Rudy Owens	80.3	5.27	3.70	1.68	66	-0.9	Tommy Phelps
Hector Ambriz	59.7	6.63	4.22	1.36	72	-1.0	James Warden
Bobby Doran	126.0	5.14	2.86	1.50	70	-1.0	Cameron Reimers
Jorge de Leon	70.0	5.53	4.50	1.41	68	-1.1	Felix Villegas
Paul Clemens	116.3	6.04	3.56	1.63	68	-1.2	Chris Mears
Rhiner Cruz	60.7	6.97	6.23	1.48	66	-1.3	Agustin Montero
Ross Seaton	127.0	4.54	3.47	2.06	57	-2.9	Mike Redding

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.