2014 ZiPS Projections – Washington Nationals

After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Washington Nationals. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / San Diego / Seattle / St. Louis / Tampa Bay / Texas / Toronto.

Batters
Despite recording about -5 runs on just errors alone, third baseman Ryan Zimmerman managed to produce three wins in 2013, a figure which ZiPS expects him to approximate in 2014. Here’s what ZiPS likely knows about Zimmerman: that his defensive figures have been decidedly less impressive in recent years than previously. Here’s what it can’t know: that one reason for Zimmerman’s decline is a combination of shoulder weakness and perhaps even some manner of anxiety which have conspired to affect his throwing accuracy.

Reports this offseason suggest that Zimmerman will receive a modest number of starts at first base, in place of Adam LaRoche. This idea has merit to it. Not only might it allow Zimmerman to avoid having to contend daily with the throwing obligations of third base, but one also notes that Zimmerman is expected to outhit LaRoche by ca. 30 points of wOBA.

Pitchers
The starting pitchers in the depth-chart graphic below are arranged not in order of expected rotation slot, but rather by projected WAR according to ZiPS. In whatever order they’re arranged, however, one point becomes clear: with the addition of Doug Fister, the Nationals rotation now contains probably four All Star-type pitchers. Also, another point is clear, too: the Nationals probably have the best fourth-starter in the majors, regardless of who it is, specifically.

The question of the fifth spot in that same rotation has no precise answer, at the moment. Ross Detwiler, Taylor Jordan, Nate Karns, and Tanner Roark: all four of them are projected by ZiPS to produce something between 1.0 and 1.5 WAR.

Bench/Prospects
After a 2012 season that saw both Bryce Harper and Jayson Werth forced to play center field, the Nationals now have a surfeit of prospects who are all likely to play that position admirably. Brian Goodwin, Eury Perez, and Michael Taylor all offer above-average defensive reputations. They’re also all projected to produce something better than a single win at the major-league level (or the equivalent of that in the minors). Among pitchers, right-hander A.J. Cole isn’t far behind the quadrumvirate of potential fifth-starters mentioned above.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Nationals, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Bryce Harper	L	21	LF	599	95	145	29	7	28	77	15	6
Ian Desmond	R	28	SS	638	75	158	32	4	20	78	23	7
Ryan Zimmerman	R	29	3B	597	79	147	28	2	23	82	5	1
Denard Span	L	30	CF	590	70	148	27	9	4	44	16	5
Anthony Rendon	R	24	2B	493	56	113	27	4	11	55	2	1
Wilson Ramos	R	26	C	326	35	80	13	0	13	49	0	1
Jayson Werth	R	35	RF	493	65	115	22	1	18	61	10	2
Zach Walters	B	24	SS	538	62	126	28	6	20	69	4	3
Eury Perez	R	24	CF	539	58	141	17	5	4	45	36	13
Brian Goodwin	L	23	CF	522	60	112	20	8	10	49	14	9
Danny Espinosa	B	27	2B	586	64	117	26	3	15	56	12	4
Nate McLouth	L	32	LF	482	56	107	22	3	10	35	17	4
Michael A. Taylor	R	23	CF	534	54	111	28	4	7	52	26	9
Sandy Leon	B	25	C	368	32	73	15	2	4	30	1	1
Adam LaRoche	L	34	1B	468	53	99	18	2	18	65	2	1
Tyler Moore	R	27	LF	440	46	96	23	2	17	64	2	0
Billy Burns	B	24	LF	484	57	112	9	6	1	37	36	6
Chris Snyder	R	33	C	261	25	52	9	0	8	33	0	1
Jhonatan Solano	R	28	C	231	19	52	11	1	3	21	1	1
Josh Johnson	B	28	SS	381	42	78	15	2	6	32	9	5
Will Rhymes	L	31	2B	498	50	115	14	5	3	35	7	5
Scott Hairston	R	34	RF	236	30	54	12	1	11	37	3	1
Mike Fontenot	L	34	2B	323	31	75	15	1	3	24	3	1
Brock Peterson	R	30	1B	399	41	87	18	1	15	45	1	1
Matt Skole	L	24	1B	336	35	67	16	1	8	59	3	1
Jamey Carroll	R	40	3B	331	38	73	12	1	0	21	4	2
Carlos Maldonado	R	35	C	121	9	20	4	0	2	10	0	0
Emmanuel Burriss	B	29	SS	362	35	81	8	1	1	20	17	6
Steven Souza	R	25	RF	417	46	82	17	3	12	49	15	8
Chad Tracy	L	34	3B	139	9	32	6	0	3	15	0	1
Brian Jeroloman	L	29	C	244	20	43	7	1	1	14	1	2
Jeff Kobernus	R	26	LF	468	51	112	16	2	3	36	34	10
Mitch Canham	L	29	C	251	23	50	11	2	1	17	4	3
Destin Hood	R	24	RF	486	43	100	20	4	6	46	7	6

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Bryce Harper	599	11.2%	19.9%	.244	.310	.279	.363	.523	.378
Ian Desmond	638	5.8%	21.6%	.170	.318	.269	.315	.439	.328
Ryan Zimmerman	597	9.0%	18.8%	.188	.305	.273	.340	.461	.347
Denard Span	590	6.4%	10.7%	.104	.301	.272	.320	.376	.307
Anthony Rendon	493	9.9%	19.3%	.157	.308	.262	.341	.419	.332
Wilson Ramos	326	6.7%	16.0%	.173	.284	.267	.320	.440	.325
Jayson Werth	493	11.0%	21.1%	.182	.311	.267	.353	.449	.351
Zach Walters	538	3.5%	26.0%	.196	.299	.247	.276	.443	.308
Eury Perez	539	2.6%	16.5%	.076	.329	.278	.305	.354	.292
Brian Goodwin	522	8.6%	24.3%	.141	.305	.238	.311	.379	.305
Danny Espinosa	586	6.1%	29.9%	.145	.297	.220	.284	.365	.285
Nate McLouth	482	8.3%	14.9%	.135	.277	.249	.319	.384	.310
Michael A. Taylor	534	6.4%	28.3%	.116	.310	.227	.281	.343	.280
Sandy Leon	368	7.6%	20.4%	.092	.268	.219	.281	.311	.265
Adam LaRoche	468	10.7%	23.5%	.184	.280	.240	.321	.424	.319
Tyler Moore	440	5.9%	28.2%	.193	.294	.236	.285	.429	.309
Billy Burns	484	8.1%	16.3%	.056	.318	.262	.338	.318	.306
Chris Snyder	261	9.2%	24.5%	.142	.270	.223	.296	.365	.287
Jhonatan Solano	231	3.9%	14.3%	.100	.266	.239	.270	.339	.263
Josh Johnson	381	8.9%	18.1%	.110	.274	.231	.305	.341	.285
Will Rhymes	498	7.2%	8.4%	.073	.274	.256	.311	.329	.282
Scott Hairston	236	5.1%	21.2%	.214	.267	.247	.288	.461	.321
Mike Fontenot	323	5.6%	17.6%	.087	.301	.253	.302	.340	.283
Brock Peterson	399	6.3%	25.6%	.177	.285	.236	.291	.413	.308
Matt Skole	336	10.1%	28.3%	.141	.298	.225	.304	.366	.297
Jamey Carroll	331	7.3%	12.4%	.047	.281	.245	.303	.292	.266
Carlos Maldonado	121	9.1%	31.4%	.093	.265	.185	.261	.278	.242
Emmanuel Burriss	362	4.7%	11.6%	.039	.274	.243	.287	.282	.254
Steven Souza	417	8.4%	30.0%	.159	.293	.220	.295	.379	.297
Chad Tracy	139	5.8%	18.0%	.116	.284	.248	.295	.364	.284
Brian Jeroloman	244	8.6%	28.3%	.056	.286	.199	.275	.255	.238
Jeff Kobernus	468	4.3%	18.6%	.067	.313	.257	.293	.324	.277
Mitch Canham	251	7.6%	19.9%	.079	.274	.218	.280	.297	.258
Destin Hood	486	5.6%	27.6%	.102	.299	.222	.272	.324	.263

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Bryce Harper	599	7.2	140	5	4.9	Kal Daniels
Ian Desmond	638	5.3	105	-1	3.5	Gene Alley
Ryan Zimmerman	597	5.9	118	-3	3.4	Pinky Higgins
Denard Span	590	4.6	91	8	2.7	Endy Chavez
Anthony Rendon	493	5.2	108	-1	2.4	Jeff Blauser
Wilson Ramos	326	5.1	106	3	2.4	Dave Valle
Jayson Werth	493	6.0	119	-2	2.2	Tim Salmon
Zach Walters	538	4.4	94	-5	1.5	Andujar Cedeno
Eury Perez	539	4.3	81	4	1.5	Willy Taveras
Brian Goodwin	522	4.1	88	0	1.3	Larry Whisenton
Danny Espinosa	586	3.7	77	5	1.2	Jim Chamblee
Nate McLouth	482	4.6	92	3	1.1	Trenidad Hubbard
Michael A. Taylor	534	3.5	71	8	1.1	Franklin Gutierrez
Sandy Leon	368	3.0	63	6	1.0	Brian Moon
Adam LaRoche	468	4.8	102	3	1.0	Kevin Barker
Tyler Moore	440	4.4	93	0	0.6	Marlo Thomas
Billy Burns	484	4.6	82	-1	0.6	Milt Cuyler
Chris Snyder	261	3.7	81	-4	0.4	Steve Yeager
Jhonatan Solano	231	3.2	66	1	0.3	Pedro Grifol
Josh Johnson	381	3.6	77	-5	0.3	Mike Hickey
Will Rhymes	498	3.6	76	-2	0.2	Alex Cora
Scott Hairston	236	4.8	102	-4	0.1	Jerry Martin
Mike Fontenot	323	3.8	76	-2	0.1	Dave Berg
Brock Peterson	399	4.2	91	0	0.1	Chris Widger
Matt Skole	336	3.9	83	1	-0.1	Matthew Rizzotti
Jamey Carroll	331	3.2	65	0	-0.1	Ossie Bluege
Carlos Maldonado	121	2.4	48	-1	-0.1	Frank Charles
Emmanuel Burriss	362	3.1	57	-1	-0.2	Jackie Gutierrez
Steven Souza	417	3.8	84	-3	-0.2	Randall Miller
Chad Tracy	139	3.7	80	-4	-0.3	Jason Wood
Brian Jeroloman	244	2.2	47	-1	-0.4	Tom Nieto
Jeff Kobernus	468	3.8	70	0	-0.4	Jim Wohlford
Mitch Canham	251	2.8	59	-8	-0.7	Tony DeFrancesco
Destin Hood	486	2.9	63	-2	-1.5	Michael Wagner

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Gio Gonzalez	L	28	30	30	188.3	183	69	15	160	71	66
Doug Fister	R	30	30	29	192.0	144	36	13	184	73	68
Stephen Strasburg	R	25	26	26	149.7	164	41	13	120	50	47
Jordan Zimmermann	R	28	30	30	189.0	141	36	17	179	74	69
Nate Karns	R	26	25	23	126.7	115	52	15	118	60	56
Ross Detwiler	L	28	23	20	116.0	70	33	10	120	55	51
Taylor Jordan	R	25	22	21	115.7	64	30	10	122	56	52
Tyler Clippard	R	29	70	0	70.7	81	24	8	52	24	22
Tanner Roark	R	27	34	19	133.0	83	43	14	137	66	62
A.J. Cole	R	22	26	26	135.0	106	34	20	138	71	66
Blake Treinen	R	26	24	16	99.7	61	24	11	105	49	46
Craig Stammen	R	30	54	0	79.7	75	28	6	71	31	29
Danny Rosenbaum	L	26	26	25	144.7	77	63	14	156	79	74
Jerry Blevins	L	30	61	0	58.3	52	18	6	51	24	22
Drew Storen	R	26	66	0	62.0	58	17	7	56	26	24
Rafael Soriano	R	34	59	0	56.7	48	17	6	52	24	22
Sammy Solis	L	25	17	16	77.3	49	28	9	82	42	39
Caleb Clay	R	26	29	13	101.7	60	28	13	109	55	51
Christian Garcia	R	28	48	0	52.0	45	21	4	47	22	21
Aaron Barrett	R	26	43	0	45.3	45	17	4	40	19	18
Taylor Hill	R	25	27	25	145.7	65	32	19	165	82	77
Xavier Cedeno	L	27	61	0	52.3	46	23	5	49	25	23
Matt Grace	L	25	52	0	71.0	41	23	6	73	34	32
Erik Davis	R	27	53	0	66.3	53	23	7	65	32	30
Ross Ohlendorf	R	31	24	18	106.7	68	41	15	115	62	58
Bill Bray	L	31	28	0	19.3	16	10	2	18	10	9
Ryan Mattheus	R	30	55	0	54.7	33	19	5	57	28	26
Cole Kimball	R	28	20	0	22.0	16	11	3	23	13	12
Mike Crotta	R	29	44	0	46.0	27	20	4	48	25	23
Chris Young	R	35	11	11	55.7	30	20	10	62	35	33
Clay Hensley	R	34	34	2	40.3	29	19	5	41	24	22
Tyler Robertson	L	26	59	0	59.3	43	29	6	60	32	30
Jeremy Accardo	R	32	34	0	42.3	26	21	5	44	25	23
Daniel Stange	R	28	48	0	57.7	43	27	7	59	33	31
Ryan Perry	R	27	37	8	70.3	43	33	10	76	44	41
Matt Torra	R	30	16	15	86.7	34	22	16	104	58	54
Manny Delcarmen	R	32	39	0	46.0	29	30	6	49	30	28
Zach Jackson	L	31	29	12	90.3	35	40	12	105	59	55

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Gio Gonzalez	188.3	794	23.1%	8.7%	.277	3.15	3.27	83	86
Doug Fister	192.0	796	18.1%	4.5%	.289	3.19	3.15	84	83
Stephen Strasburg	149.7	610	26.9%	6.7%	.278	2.83	2.93	74	77
Jordan Zimmermann	189.0	782	18.0%	4.6%	.279	3.29	3.39	86	89
Nate Karns	126.7	550	20.9%	9.5%	.285	3.98	4.15	104	109
Ross Detwiler	116.0	501	14.0%	6.6%	.287	3.96	3.92	104	103
Taylor Jordan	115.7	499	12.8%	6.0%	.289	4.05	4.03	106	106
Tyler Clippard	70.7	288	28.1%	8.3%	.254	2.80	3.29	73	86
Tanner Roark	133.0	579	14.3%	7.4%	.285	4.20	4.30	110	113
A.J. Cole	135.0	577	18.4%	5.9%	.289	4.40	4.32	115	113
Blake Treinen	99.7	428	14.2%	5.6%	.287	4.15	4.10	109	108
Craig Stammen	79.7	338	22.2%	8.3%	.286	3.28	3.16	86	83
Danny Rosenbaum	144.7	653	11.8%	9.6%	.290	4.60	4.74	121	124
Jerry Blevins	58.3	244	21.3%	7.4%	.275	3.39	3.58	89	94
Drew Storen	62.0	259	22.4%	6.6%	.278	3.48	3.42	91	90
Rafael Soriano	56.7	239	20.1%	7.1%	.274	3.49	3.53	92	93
Sammy Solis	77.3	342	14.3%	8.2%	.291	4.54	4.58	119	120
Caleb Clay	101.7	442	13.6%	6.3%	.286	4.51	4.48	118	117
Christian Garcia	52.0	224	20.1%	9.4%	.287	3.63	3.76	95	99
Aaron Barrett	45.3	193	23.3%	8.8%	.288	3.57	3.47	94	91
Taylor Hill	145.7	634	10.3%	5.0%	.287	4.76	4.70	125	123
Xavier Cedeno	52.3	229	20.1%	10.0%	.292	3.96	3.91	104	103
Matt Grace	71.0	309	13.3%	7.4%	.285	4.06	4.09	107	107
Erik Davis	66.3	287	18.5%	8.0%	.290	4.07	3.91	107	103
Ross Ohlendorf	106.7	476	14.3%	8.6%	.289	4.89	4.87	128	128
Bill Bray	19.3	86	18.6%	11.6%	.281	4.19	4.29	110	113
Ryan Mattheus	54.7	240	13.7%	7.9%	.287	4.28	4.07	112	107
Cole Kimball	22.0	100	16.0%	11.0%	.290	4.91	4.87	129	128
Mike Crotta	46.0	206	13.1%	9.7%	.289	4.50	4.12	118	108
Chris Young	55.7	249	12.0%	8.0%	.278	5.34	5.44	140	143
Clay Hensley	40.3	181	16.0%	10.5%	.286	4.91	4.71	129	124
Tyler Robertson	59.3	267	16.1%	10.9%	.292	4.55	4.43	119	116
Jeremy Accardo	42.3	192	13.5%	10.9%	.283	4.89	4.85	128	127
Daniel Stange	57.7	259	16.6%	10.4%	.292	4.84	4.70	127	123
Ryan Perry	70.3	320	13.4%	10.3%	.287	5.25	5.21	138	137
Matt Torra	86.7	386	8.8%	5.7%	.286	5.61	5.63	147	148
Manny Delcarmen	46.0	217	13.4%	13.8%	.289	5.48	5.57	144	146
Zach Jackson	90.3	416	8.4%	9.6%	.288	5.48	5.53	144	145

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Gio Gonzalez	188.3	8.75	3.30	0.72	122	4.0	Wilson Alvarez
Doug Fister	192.0	6.75	1.69	0.61	121	4.0	John Burkett
Stephen Strasburg	149.7	9.86	2.46	0.78	136	3.8	Mark Prior
Jordan Zimmermann	189.0	6.71	1.71	0.81	117	3.8	Carl Pavano
Nate Karns	126.7	8.17	3.69	1.07	97	1.4	Octavio Dotel
Ross Detwiler	116.0	5.43	2.56	0.78	97	1.3	Wade Blasingame
Taylor Jordan	115.7	4.98	2.33	0.78	95	1.2	Early Wynn
Tyler Clippard	70.7	10.31	3.06	1.02	138	1.1	Armando Benitez
Tanner Roark	133.0	5.62	2.91	0.95	92	1.0	Clay Christiansen
A.J. Cole	135.0	7.07	2.27	1.33	88	0.9	Zack Greinke
Blake Treinen	99.7	5.51	2.17	0.99	93	0.9	Jeff Taylor
Craig Stammen	79.7	8.47	3.16	0.68	118	0.8	Ryan Dempster
Danny Rosenbaum	144.7	4.79	3.92	0.87	84	0.6	Greg Kubes
Jerry Blevins	58.3	8.03	2.78	0.93	114	0.5	Alan Embree
Drew Storen	62.0	8.42	2.47	1.02	111	0.5	Wes Pierorazio
Rafael Soriano	56.7	7.62	2.70	0.95	110	0.4	Kerry Ligtenberg
Sammy Solis	77.3	5.71	3.26	1.05	85	0.4	Lee Upshaw
Caleb Clay	101.7	5.31	2.48	1.15	85	0.3	Jack Hardy
Christian Garcia	52.0	7.79	3.63	0.69	106	0.3	Jay Powell
Aaron Barrett	45.3	8.94	3.38	0.79	108	0.3	Troy Percival
Taylor Hill	145.7	4.02	1.98	1.17	81	0.3	Dave Eiland
Xavier Cedeno	52.3	7.92	3.96	0.86	98	0.1	Ricardo Jordan
Matt Grace	71.0	5.20	2.92	0.76	95	0.0	Tanyon Sturtze
Erik Davis	66.3	7.19	3.12	0.95	95	0.0	Rich Monteleone
Ross Ohlendorf	106.7	5.74	3.46	1.27	79	0.0	Ryan Jensen
Bill Bray	19.3	7.46	4.66	0.93	92	0.0	Arnold Earley
Ryan Mattheus	54.7	5.43	3.13	0.82	90	-0.1	Weston Weber
Cole Kimball	22.0	6.55	4.50	1.23	79	-0.2	Brad Tweedlie
Mike Crotta	46.0	5.28	3.91	0.78	86	-0.2	Gary Wagner
Chris Young	55.7	4.85	3.23	1.62	72	-0.3	Nerio Rodriguez
Clay Hensley	40.3	6.48	4.24	1.12	79	-0.3	David Lee
Tyler Robertson	59.3	6.53	4.40	0.91	85	-0.3	Tom Doyle
Jeremy Accardo	42.3	5.53	4.47	1.06	79	-0.4	Jim Dedrick
Daniel Stange	57.7	6.71	4.21	1.09	80	-0.5	Mike James
Ryan Perry	70.3	5.50	4.22	1.28	74	-0.5	Mumba Rivera
Matt Torra	86.7	3.53	2.28	1.66	69	-0.7	Allen Davis
Manny Delcarmen	46.0	5.67	5.87	1.17	70	-0.8	Jim Dedrick
Zach Jackson	90.3	3.49	3.99	1.20	70	-0.8	Chris Peters

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.