2015 AL Wild Card Live Blog
| 7:50 |
: Welcome to the postseason.
|
| 7:50 |
: We’ll kick this thing off right before game time.
|
| 7:52 |
: Astros
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| 7:53 |
: Astros
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| 7:53 |
: 1
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| 8:01 |
: He lost a bet
|
| 8:02 |
: Alright, let’s get this party started.
|
| 8:02 |
: Postseason baseball! Woo!
|
| 8:03 |
Kind of funny how “0” is not even an option in the first poll question. |
| 8:03 |
: The Astros went with 16 position players/9 pitchers, and one of those pitchers is Fiers, who they’re going to hold for extra innings. So it’s very unlikely they’re planning a bullpen game.
|
| 8:04 |
What would be the “most analytical” WS? In terms of front offices, coaches, overall organization philosophy? |
| 8:04 |
: Astros/Dodgers, by a good margin.
|
| 8:05 |
Are you guys excited? I might not be a fan of the WC format were I a fan of these teams, but damn if a single-game playoff isn’t thrilling |
| 8:05 |
: Yeah, these games are awesome. I love this format.
|
| 8:05 |
: I really like the format. I like the emphasis on divisions and rivalries there. The games are a lot of fun to watch. I love them.
|
| 8:06 |
: And sure, it’s unfair to base a whole team’s season on one game, but it’s more fair than not letting the second wild card get that one game at all.
|
| 8:06 |
: Also, hi Sean.
|
| 8:06 |
I love win or go home games, adds good drama. |
| 8:06 |
NYY fan oh man do I suddenly hate this format when my team is in it |
| 8:06 |
: The KC-OAK game last year and the PIT-CIN game in 2013 were something else.
|
| 8:06 |
who wins? |
| 8:06 |
: I’m guessing Keuchel stays in too long, a RH takes him yard, and the Yankees win 4-3.
|
| 8:07 |
We, the viewers, win, Tucker. |
| 8:07 |
Why is Keuchel still in there? He’s already thrown so many warm up pitches and it’s well known that pitcher numbers fall off once they start facing hitters |
| 8:08 |
I like the format, I just wish the teams were re-seeded by record after this WC round. The Cards and winner of the Cubs/Pirates game should get to feast on the weaker Dodgers and Mets rather than having to play each other. |
| 8:08 |
: I wouldn’t say the Dodgers or Mets are weak at all.
|
| 8:08 |
AJ Hinch looks like the Astros’ DH |
| 8:10 |
Television sports punditry is fun because you get to watch people express certainty about stochastic outcomes. Now time for an expected value of roughly half of the pundits to be proven wrong. |
| 8:10 |
: I think you get bonus points for using ‘stochastic’ tonight.
|
| 8:10 |
: Also, as a quick note to those new to live blogs; this is less Q&A and more just stream-of-consciousness/game reaction. So don’t get too mad if we aren’t answering your questions.
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| 8:10 |
: Let’s play baseball.
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| 8:11 |
I was just about to ask how long it would take for them to mention his height… literally the first thing they said |
| 8:11 |
Will Girardi have a quick hook on Tanaka? |
| 8:11 |
: I bet we see a decent amount of Adam Warren tonight.
|
| 8:13 |
altuve chased a couple that AB |
| 8:13 |
: He’s not a very patient hitter.
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| 8:14 |
: That was a pretty good cutter though.
|
| 8:15 |
Total strikeouts this game: over/under 15? |
| 8:15 |
: Way over.
|
| 8:15 |
: I’ll guess 23.
|
| 8:16 |
: If Astros keep chasing that cutter off the plate, he’s going to have a good night.
|
| 8:16 |
What are the thoughts on keeping the K-zone graphic on during real time pitches? |
| 8:16 |
: It’s grown on me a lot.
|
| 8:17 |
: Between innings adjustments; stop chasing outside cutter.
|
| 8:17 |
Why does Sportsnet insist on a ticker. Does ESPN continually run one? Currently annoyance level 3/10. |
| 8:17 |
: ESPN always has a ticker.
|
| 8:18 |
: All three outs on the outside cutter.
|
| 8:18 |
Thanks for doing these chats, I don’t have any buddies in town that have my level of interest in baseball, so this is a great way to enjoy the games with others. |
| 8:18 |
: Thanks for hanging out with us!
|
| 8:18 |
Gameday reports it as a slider, not a cutter. |
| 8:18 |
: The difference between the two for a lot of pitchers is pretty minor.
|
| 8:19 |
: They use a neural network (machine learning) to classify pitches based on speed, break, etc. It can/is wrong a lot.
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| 8:19 |
Does Tanaka really have seven pitches? Are some just the same with minor changes to speed/horizontal movement? |
| 8:19 |
| 8:20 |
: I see four seam, two seam, splitter, cutter, curve, and slider. So six that seem distinct.
|
| 8:21 |
Is comparing Correa to A-Rod’s career arc a bit extreme? |
| 8:21 |
: Yes.
|
| 8:21 |
jeff’s article got me wondering – besides knuckleballers, are there any pitchers who succeed without something resembling a fastball? Or is tanaka the closest we can get to that |
| 8:21 |
: There’s a ton of slider-heavy relievers.
|
| 8:21 |
: But it’s pretty rare for a starter.
|
| 8:22 |
Hasn’t Tanaka used a changeup before? |
| 8:22 |
: His splitter is probably called a change-up by some. It’s the same pitch in most cases.
|
| 8:23 |
: Pretty great location on that fastball.
|
| 8:23 |
splitter != changeup, just ask the arm |
| 8:23 |
: No, but from the perspective of what the pitch actually does, they serve the same purpose. Very few pitchers throw both.
|
| 8:24 |
The playoff beard is real |
| 8:25 |
Did we already get your opinions on starting Chris Young and Gardner over Ellsbury? |
| 8:25 |
: Keuchel crushes lefties. It makes sense.
|
| 8:25 |
: You can always sub in Ellsbury.
|
| 8:25 |
One of the first tv analysts i have heard say that stressful pitches are more important than # of pitches |
| 8:25 |
: Really? I heard that all the time.
|
| 8:26 |
If you could have anyone in the booth for the post season, who would it be? |
| 8:26 |
: Vin Scully and a mute person.
|
| 8:26 |
Seems cruel to include the mute person, he just said anyone, not any 2 people |
| 8:26 |
: I’m fulfilling a mute person’s dream of going to the World Series. Why not make them happy to?
|
| 8:28 |
% chance ARod juicing? |
| 8:28 |
: Depends on whether you think players have untestable stuff now. He’d be insane to take anything they can screen for. He probably gets tested every two hours.
|
| 8:28 |
: (that’s hyperbole, but I guarantee you he got tested more than anyone else this year)
|
| 8:28 |
They should have a crowd noise only audio option. It would make it more like being there. |
| 8:28 |
: Yes, I use that on video games all the time
|
| 8:28 |
There’s that Eric Cooper strike zone factoring in |
| 8:28 |
it was a strike |
| 8:29 |
k-zone liked it |
| 8:29 |
Is there anywhere to find playoff WPA? I’m curious if, despite all of the narratives, A-rod is fairly close to someone like Jeter. |
| 8:29 |
: Player page, click “show postseason”
|
| 8:29 |
Gutsy pitch |
| 8:29 |
: He missed his spot by a few feet. That was fortunate more than anything, I think.
|
| 8:31 |
Why isn’t WAR calculated for postseason performance? |
| 8:31 |
: No defensive metrics.
|
| 8:31 |
Dave, both pitchers are throwing their fastballs up in the zone. If they really are missing their spots with their fastballs, what should a manager do?? |
| 8:32 |
Colby Rasmus with the boomstickin’ |
| 8:32 |
And Rasmus cools Yankee stadium for a sec |
| 8:32 |
There’s a Colby Jack |
| 8:32 |
: #YouCantPredictBaseball
|
| 8:33 |
: “You think it’s just a simple pop fly.” It was, in any other park.
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| 8:33 |
3 straight 1st pitch swings |
| 8:33 |
: Astros probably want to try and get away from off-speed pitch counts.
|
| 8:34 |
Colby playoff bat flip game on point. |
| 8:34 |
: Speaking of bat flips, I really hope we see a Valbuena HR so we can see what he does. He’s got some flipping skills.
|
| 8:35 |
Did Valbuena just bat flip on a single up the middle? |
| 8:35 |
: You are clearly not familiar with the Luis Valbuena experience.
|
| 8:35 |
: I’m pretty sure he bat flips getting out of bed.
|
| 8:35 |
: Is that an album?
|
| 8:36 |
To be fair how could anybody have experience with Valbuena hitting a ball in play for a hit? |
| 8:36 |
Umpire hasn’t missed a pitch yet |
| 8:37 |
: He does a good job of not calling that outside crap that some umps give too much of.
|
| 8:37 |
: And there’s the low strike.
|
| 8:38 |
This K-zone isn’t a perfect representation of the actual zone though, right? Like, it wouldn’t pick up backdoor strikes that a 3D zone would. |
| 8:38 |
: Correct.
|
| 8:39 |
What’s tanaka’ leash? |
| 8:39 |
: I’d bet he goes no more than 5. Maybe less.
|
| 8:41 |
What is the leverage index of this plate appearance? |
| 8:41 |
| 8:41 |
: Leverage, win expectancy…all there!
|
| 8:43 |
: And this is where Dave “Bullpen Game!” Cameron starts to suggest that you don’t want to let your starter bury you.
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| 8:44 |
: And that inning is a nice example of the power of sequencing: Tanaka gives up three walks and a HR and still only gives up 1 R.
|
| 8:45 |
So that inning was like a kamikaze pilot crashing into the ocean and surviving? |
| 8:46 |
Dave I’m assuming you would have had the bullpen going and someone ready with the bases loaded in that situation. Would you have made a move for the Altuve at-bat, or would you have let Tanaka try to get out of it? |
| 8:46 |
: Well, I think the reality is that if you’re going to be as aggressive with the pen as I think teams should be in these games, you have to plan for it ahead of time. So you basically have someone ready every inning.
|
| 8:46 |
I think RE24 is much underappreciated |
| 8:46 |
: It depends on what question you are trying to answer. RE24 doesn’t work well for talent evaluation.
|
| 8:47 |
: I think by the time you react to a rally, it’s usually too late.
|
| 8:48 |
well, you mean it isn’t predictive |
| 8:48 |
: also, yes.
|
| 8:48 |
Would you eat Sushi from Yankee Stadium? |
| 8:48 |
: Sure. I eat sushi in Winston-Salem, NC. Can’t be worse.
|
| 8:48 |
Ive had YS sushi. Mediocre but acceptable |
| 8:48 |
: Eric Cooper has a tall strike zone; news at 11.
|
| 8:49 |
McCann looked happy! |
| 8:49 |
Would you have started Murphy over McCann? Keuchel is soooo good against lefties |
| 8:49 |
: No, because McCann’s framing is valuable on defense, and Keuchel probably won’t pitch that deep.
|
| 8:50 |
You tip Buster off on that, Dave? |
| 8:50 |
: He tweeted out the link to the InstaGraphs post, so he definitely saw it.
|
| 8:50 |
That wasnt a strike either |
| 8:51 |
You cant give Keuchel an inch off every corner of the plate |
| 8:51 |
The Cooper zone is ridiculous. Consistently wrong = wrong. |
| 8:51 |
: These are close, to be fair. They aren’t insane calls. It’s just a big zone.
|
| 8:52 |
How could someone this commonly known to have a wrong strikezone be allowed to be the HP ump in a win or go home game? |
| 8:52 |
: Lots of umpires have big strike zones.
|
| 8:52 |
Fangraphs spot on so far |
| 8:52 |
: Blame Dave.
|
| 8:52 |
: Cooper is actually a pretty good umpire.
|
| 8:54 |
Mendoza is infinitely better than Schilling |
| 8:54 |
Won’t be up as late tonight at least with Cooper behind the plate |
| 8:54 |
: You don’t really want a small zone in a Yankee game.
|
| 8:55 |
As a Yankee fan, I definitely do want a small zone. |
| 8:55 |
Mendoza is great. She seems to only speak when she has something really insightful to say. Her good point per word ratio has to be the highest of anyone on ESPN. |
| 8:55 |
% McCann calls a first pitch juuust off the plate to see if Cooper will be fair? |
| 8:56 |
Jeff’s post about possession and the Yankees taking the most time on the mound was zero percent surprising. |
| 8:56 |
At least the Yankees are working the count against Keuchel and getting him deep into counts |
| 8:57 |
: Yeah, so that he’ll have thrown too many pitches to stay in third time through the order and instead you get a bunch of better relievers instead.
|
| 8:58 |
HIgh bullpen ERA in september though… |
| 8:58 |
: Meaningless.
|
| 8:59 |
Keuchel actually allowed his lowest opponent OPS when he was facing batters for the third time. http://www.baseball-referen… |
| 8:59 |
: Yes, but that’s one of those things that is almost certainly a fluke.
|
| 9:00 |
: Even the best pitchers don’t actually get better as the game goes on. They just get less worse.
|
| 9:00 |
Why do I imagine Dave Cameron as some batman-esque supervillain, watching the game from his underground lair. “Meaningless, you fools!” |
| 9:01 |
@designated bitter, you thought batman was the villian? |
| 9:01 |
Correa like Korea or Core-Eh-Yah? I hear both a lot |
| 9:01 |
: The latter.
|
| 9:02 |
Tanaka over/under 4 innings |
| 9:02 |
: I’ll go under at this point.
|
| 9:02 |
Dave are you getting somebody ready if you’re Girardi? |
| 9:02 |
: Yes.,
|
| 9:02 |
Whose up next? |
| 9:02 |
: Wilson, probably.
|
| 9:02 |
: Or maybe Warren.
|
| 9:02 |
Manager Cameron: Warren 3-4, Wilson 5, Betances 6-7, Miller 8-9? |
| 9:02 |
: Yeah, something like that.
|
| 9:03 |
: Maybe Wilson to get out of the jam, then Warren to start an inning fresh.
|
| 9:03 |
Would you throw Severino for an inning? |
| 9:04 |
: I’d try not to.
|
| 9:04 |
Save Severino in case extras, no? |
| 9:04 |
: Yep.
|
| 9:05 |
Who’s in reserve for the Astros in extras? |
| 9:05 |
: Fiers.
|
| 9:05 |
Gattis could work an intentional walk to a 3-2 count |
| 9:06 |
: I’ve sometimes though a batter should swing at the 3-0 intentional walk pitch just to make them throw another one
|
| 9:06 |
So I watched Monday night football for the first time all season last night and absolutely loved ESPN’s broadcast. No bottom line, and the score bug disappears while plays are happening so literally the only thing to focus on is the action. Really disappointing they don’t do something similar for this game and just treat the broadcast as another Sunday night game |
| 9:06 |
: ESPN only gets one Postseason broadcast. They won’t build a new graphics package for this game. Last year they used their MNF crew to shoot the game in PGH.
|
| 9:07 |
Sweet play by Headley there |
| 9:08 |
Does Fangraphs have times through the order splits? I couldn’t see them on Keuchel’s splits page, but I thought I’ve seen them here before. |
| 9:09 |
: We don’t, yet. But there’s a big splits overhaul coming in the not too distant future.
|
| 9:09 |
: You’ll like what we have when it’s up.
|
| 9:09 |
Who is Sean Dolinar? |
| 9:09 |
: I feel like Sean should answer this one.
|
| 9:10 |
: But apparently Sean doesn’t want to.
|
| 9:11 |
: Sean joined the staff earlier this year, and has helped tremendously improve the graphics we use on the site. He also runs our Twitter account, and does pieces helping explain the foundations of the metrics we use.
|
| 9:12 |
: Archer calls framing “presenting”
|
| 9:12 |
: Wonder if that’s what the Rays call it internally
|
| 9:13 |
: Archer is being really good here, by the way.
|
| 9:13 |
: I was checking Twitter! And tweeting about my Postseason hat. I have a background in video, design, chemistry and statistics. So somehow making graphics on FanGraphs makes sense.
|
| 9:13 |
: Super useful commentary.
|
| 9:13 |
I’m really really enjoying listening to Chris Archer right now |
| 9:14 |
: That was not a very good swing.
|
| 9:16 |
: Nasty change-up.
|
| 9:16 |
: Okay, off to go say goodnight to the wife and dog. Back in a few.
|
| 9:17 |
: Boom!
|
| 9:17 |
KLOON!!! |
| 9:17 |
first pitch |
| 9:18 |
That angle for that swing was sweet |
| 9:19 |
All the homers |
| 9:19 |
: Second behind Toronto this year. (230 HR)
|
| 9:19 |
: Well that was crushed.
|
| 9:20 |
So Dave has the dog and the kid, Jeff has volcanoes, Eno has beer, and Kiley’s an asshole. Sean– what’s your thing? |
| 9:20 |
: Computers, graphics, video production, stats, Twitter, 90s Music.
|
| 9:21 |
Unis may have changed but Carlos hitting a bomb & bat flipping in front of McCann was freakin awesome. |
| 9:21 |
I am really enjoying this chat, but I’d probably enjoy it more if mlb.tv actually showed games live instead of a minute tape delay. God damnit |
| 9:21 |
: International?
|
| 9:22 |
: I don’t know if it’s intentional, but MLB.tv is always behind.
|
| 9:22 |
: It’s not just for the postseason.
|
| 9:23 |
Tanaka can’t get outs in the strikezone |
| 9:23 |
: His entire game is getting out of zone chass.
|
| 9:23 |
: chases.
|
| 9:24 |
: out of zoine chass is something else entirely.
|
| 9:24 |
Like Archer, but, um, he needs to, um, stop saying um. |
| 9:25 |
: This isn’t his job. He isn’t trained for this. The insights are great. Ignore the ums.
|
| 9:25 |
: What a meatball he just got away with.
|
| 9:27 |
Archer just invited himself to announce another half inning and everyone at home cheered. |
| 9:28 |
He needs to do it after every half inning to see how long he can go haha |
| 9:28 |
FanGraphs needs to get an interview with Archer now. Really enjoying his commentary. |
| 9:28 |
: For sure.
|
| 9:28 |
Screw the ums. Love the pitching insights and the “yes sir”s & “yes mam”s. MLB needs to be pushing smart, well spoken, über talented players like him as much as possible. |
| 9:28 |
: Agreed. I had no idea Archer was this insightful. MLB should absolutely be spotlighting guys like this.
|
| 9:29 |
FanGraphs Audio with Archer? |
| 9:30 |
Read this if you enjoy Archer. My first intro to him outside of baseball. http://www.sportsonearth.co… |
| 9:32 |
: Pretty great breaking ball there.
|
| 9:33 |
As much as Kruk sucks, overall booth has been good. Schulman & Mendoza solid. Archer awesome. No one talking over each other. No patronizing sermons from Uncle McCarver. |
| 9:34 |
: Yeah, this has been a very good broadcast.
|
| 9:34 |
Bullpen time for Yankees yet? |
| 9:34 |
: I’d probably hook him here.
|
| 9:35 |
Why does ESPN insist on that ridiculous behind the catcher angle every inning? |
| 9:35 |
: I have no idea.
|
| 9:35 |
It shows the ads all over the outfield |
| 9:37 |
: Gregorius has an arm.
|
| 9:37 |
Yankee defense has been outstanding. |
| 9:37 |
Gregorius actually has TWO arms |
| 9:38 |
: Got away with one there.
|
| 9:38 |
: Tanaka’s in-zone command has been lousy.
|
| 9:39 |
Girardi going to yank him after this inning? |
| 9:39 |
: No reason to keep pushing it.
|
| 9:39 |
It seems like a growing thing in sports broadcasts: on the field (or court) camera angles to make you feel like you’re there and at the same time giving you no idea what is going on. |
| 9:39 |
: Cameras are becoming cheaper and broadcasts are becoming a better experience than being there. (Especially football.)
|
| 9:41 |
Honestly, I occasionally like seeing the field and fielders during a pitch. And I like seeing the ball out in play from behind the catcher, seeing players react, the path of the ball, etc. Not always, but sometimes. |
| 9:41 |
How much more do you want ideally out of Keuchel? Two more then hand it to the pen? |
| 9:41 |
I think football is the only one where that’s true. The other major sports are so much more fun live. |
| 9:41 |
: I love going to baseball games, but sometimes it’s so much easier to chill on the couch and watch the baseball game on TV.
|
| 9:41 |
: Yeah, no way do you ask for more than six on three days rest in an elimination game.
|
| 9:42 |
Any managers in this year’s post season have history of bad in-game decisions? (see Matt Williams last season) |
| 9:42 |
: Matheny is terrible in-game.
|
| 9:42 |
: Ned Yost does weird things.
|
| 9:42 |
If Keuchel goes six up, six down next two innings, you can’t take him out though, can you? |
| 9:42 |
: Sure you can.
|
| 9:43 |
Do any teams have a strategic consultant or something similar to aid managers with in-game decisions? |
| 9:43 |
: He goes by the title “bench coach”
|
| 9:43 |
: But they’re generally not statistically savvy.
|
| 9:44 |
calls for the institution of a “bench nerd.” |
| 9:44 |
: Teams have started to be allowed to have ipads (with wifi disabled), so that might be where they head first.
|
| 9:45 |
Do any teams have a stats guy in the dugout? I know from reading Big Data Baseball that Hurdle meets with the stats guys in between games, but has any team actually put them in the dugout? |
| 9:46 |
: No, no one has a pure stats guy as a coach.
|
| 9:46 |
Astros win expectancy closing in on 75%- seems a little high at this point, no? |
| 9:46 |
: And non-uniformed personnel not allowed in the dugout.
|
| 9:46 |
: Teams fail to score runs in 70% of all innings, so not really. And 25% is a large chance to come back.
|
| 9:46 |
Kuech isn’t missing his spots. They aren’t pulling him |
| 9:47 |
: Refsnyder just missed one. The worm turns fast.
|
| 9:47 |
Ya whether you think they should pull him or not, theyre not going to until the Yankees make him pay |
| 9:48 |
: Which is the problem. In an elimination game, once you’ve waited until the pitcher has “paid”, you may have very well lost the game.
|
| 9:48 |
: The biggest change that needs to happen in the dugout is proactive decision making versus reactive decision making.
|
| 9:49 |
: The old “if it ain’t broke don’t fix it” mentality is just not a good way to run a club.
|
| 9:49 |
This move is somewhat proactive |
| 9:49 |
: Yep.
|
| 9:50 |
Those are getting called for Keuchel |
| 9:51 |
But also win expectancy doesn’t account for the Yankees having Miller in Betances, so it’s probably a bit higher right? |
| 9:51 |
: Yeah, Win Expectancy is generalized for all of MLB.
|
| 9:51 |
: But most teams have good relievers, so the gap isn’t as huge as people make it out to be.
|
| 9:52 |
Is Rasmus considered a bust or success based on his prospect status? |
| 9:52 |
: In between, leaning towards bust.
|
| 9:54 |
Girardi one of the better managers, no? |
| 9:54 |
: I think so, yes.
|
| 9:55 |
Gary Pettis is a man who likes clapping |
| 9:55 |
Nice 1-6-3 |
| 9:56 |
And now the only pitchers for the rest of the game should be Betances and Miller. On you offense. |
| 9:56 |
: I might try to get another inning from Wilson, so that you could cover 7-10 with Betances/Miller in case of extras.
|
| 9:56 |
: But I can see the case for not worrying about 10th inning and just going to Betances now.
|
| 9:56 |
Is WAR calculated differently at each position? And if so, is WAR for relief pitchers different than WAR for starters? |
| 9:56 |
: Yes, Position Player WAR, then SP and RP are both separate. RP WAR is weighted by leverage.
|
| 9:58 |
so 2.0 WAR for reliever is still average? |
| 9:58 |
: No, 2.0 WAR for a reliever is elite
|
| 9:58 |
: Average is roughly 0.5 WAR per 60 innings for a reliever.
|
| 9:58 |
: 9 players with >= 2.0 WAR
http://www.fangraphs.com/le… |
| 9:59 |
Pen better get moving |
| 10:01 |
If you want to win a baseball game is Chad Qualls someone you want in the game? |
| 10:01 |
: Qualls is a good reliever, so yes.
|
| 10:02 |
: Not a good swing from Gardner.
|
| 10:02 |
“Gets better as the game goes on.” This is wrong right? |
| 10:02 |
: He was this year, but it won’t last. No one has true talent improvement as they go deeper.
|
| 10:03 |
Yankees cant catch a break |
| 10:03 |
WHOA |
| 10:04 |
: Pretty great play by Correa.
|
| 10:05 |
Ban sliding? |
| 10:05 |
: Ban take out slides, yes.
|
| 10:05 |
With catcher collisions now eliminated, will we ever see takeout slides illegal? |
| 10:05 |
: It’s inevitable, yes.
|
| 10:05 |
The motherf&%^ing NFL doesn’t even allow people to hit defenseless players below the knees. Wake the F up MLB. |
| 10:06 |
hook? |
| 10:06 |
: For sure.
|
| 10:06 |
Not pulling him. Disagree? |
| 10:06 |
: Absolutely.
|
| 10:06 |
: This is just a mistake.
|
| 10:07 |
: And A-Rod missed a mistake.
|
| 10:07 |
Jeff Luhnow exhales |
| 10:07 |
Reminder: a positive outcome does not validate a bad strategic move |
| 10:07 |
“A-Rod is not clutch” thing lives on |
| 10:08 |
Does anyone miss catcher collisions? |
| 10:08 |
: Not at all. I can watch 1970 All-Star Game highlights if I ever miss it.
|
| 10:08 |
if the astros don’t score, is keuchel done? |
| 10:08 |
: Keuchel shouldn’t throw another pitch.
|
| 10:08 |
That was an inch away from radically changing the 2015 season. |
| 10:08 |
: Maybe more like a quarter inch.
|
| 10:10 |
Does a move like that, or lack of a move, signify that managers have free reign during a game, even with “stats driven” organizations? |
| 10:10 |
: Yeah, no manager is going to accept being told what to do in-game by the front office.
|
| 10:11 |
: Wilson out for a second inning. I like it.
|
| 10:11 |
: Especially with the LH up.
|
| 10:12 |
: Valbuena fouling off hittable pitches here.
|
| 10:13 |
Why haven’t any of my comments been chosen? I didn’t log in to this chat to look at other people talk! |
| 10:14 |
: If you’d like to host your own live blog and approve all your own comments, feel free.
|
| 10:14 |
Lol, i hope my sarcasm showed through, not sure if it did |
| 10:15 |
: Glad you were joking!
|
| 10:15 |
Seriously? Luis Valbuena? |
| 10:15 |
: He’s underrated.
|
| 10:15 |
How many people are on this chat? I want to know what the competition is. Maybe I’m just not funny… |
| 10:15 |
: Cover It Live says we have 1,000 people in here.
|
| 10:16 |
I know he didn’t do a full bullpen game like you would’ve wanted, but I’m pretty happy with Girardi’s bullpen use tonight. |
| 10:16 |
: Yeah, this is about as aggressive as you can realistically expect a manager to be, given that they have to deal with egos/media/etc…
|
| 10:17 |
It looks like the possibility of outcomes for this game (based on sequencing) ranged from ‘Astros win by a little’ to ‘Astros win by a lot’ |
| 10:17 |
: Embrace the uncertainty!
|
| 10:17 |
So if the game ends 2-0, it cant be blamed on giving Tanaka a long leash? It was simply 2 mistake pitches and the Yankees hitters doing nothing |
| 10:18 |
: Hard to blame the pitcher for losing when the other team throws a shutout, yes.
|
| 10:18 |
Things will get interesting with this Astros pen |
| 10:18 |
: Astros pen is fine. Don’t take September results too seriously.
|
| 10:19 |
: Man that’s a great breaking ball.
|
| 10:20 |
: And poor fastball command.
|
| 10:20 |
sabermetric thoughts on pinch runner in this situation? |
| 10:20 |
: Generally against PRs in non-one-run games, but Carter isn’t a good enough hitter to worry about losing later.
|
| 10:21 |
follow up question: should he attempt a steal here? |
| 10:21 |
: Yeah, you probably don’t want to count on getting two hits against betances.
|
| 10:22 |
Which teams are most likely to embrace your wild card bullpen game? When’s the earliest that happens? |
| 10:22 |
: It will probably take a team qualifying without a frontline starter available to go in the WC game. So maybe a team who sneaks in on last day and chooses RPs over #3 starter.
|
| 10:23 |
and the pinch runner pays off |
| 10:23 |
: The Dave Cameron Perfect Storm.
|
| 10:23 |
: Just a classic “good pitch, bad result”
|
| 10:23 |
: 99 times out of 100, that swing leads to an out.
|
| 10:24 |
Baseball, though. |
| 10:24 |
Hunter Pence sees nothing wrong with that swing |
| 10:25 |
Where else can you see a 6’9 behemoth taken down by a 5’6 guy? Only playoff baseball |
| 10:26 |
Wow he’s fast |
| 10:26 |
Jonathan Papelbon is very pleased with Springer’s hustle there. |
| 10:26 |
provided the score doesnt change [ 🙁 ] this season was probably 95th percentile outcome for NYY, yes? |
| 10:26 |
: Yeah.
|
| 10:27 |
Hey, is Dolinar in Chicago? |
| 10:27 |
: Pittsburgh, but I’ve lived in Chicago before.
|
| 10:27 |
Was this a bad performance on the part of Tanaka, or just a mediocre one? |
| 10:28 |
: I think he was pretty lucky to only give up two runs.
|
| 10:28 |
: Lots of missed locations in the zone.
|
| 10:28 |
What do you like/dislike most about playoff baseball? |
| 10:28 |
: Like: How different it is from the regular season. Dislike: Afternoon games (If I have a 9-5 job).
|
| 10:29 |
: Like: every play matters. Dislike: it can be a pretty grueling three weeks to cover.
|
| 10:29 |
Why does MLB actually play afternoon playoff games? Do they seriously not care that people can’t watch? |
| 10:29 |
: TV networks pay big money to have rights to broadcast only game going.
|
| 10:30 |
You going to the game tomorrow, Sean? |
| 10:30 |
: Yes, I’ll be there. Was there in 2013…best sporting event of my life.
|
| 10:31 |
Is there something to be said about the hot/cold nature of home run heavy offensives not working in the post season? Or at least riskier? It seems like if you’re relying on high value, low probability events, it’d be harder to consistently score runs like you need to to win postseason series. As opposed to the contact focused offense of the Royals, say. |
| 10:31 |
: No, there’s no evidence contact-oriented offenses do better in October, over a decent sample size anyway.
|
| 10:31 |
: HRs are helpful in low run environments (like October) because they don’t require multiple good events in a row.
|
| 10:33 |
feels like disadvantages of low contact/high power are evened out by the possibility that you hit a bunch of HR’s, no? |
| 10:33 |
: Yeah, any kind of offense can work in October as long as its the kind that scores runs.
|
| 10:33 |
For whom do you root, Sean? |
| 10:33 |
: Pirates, but no one here believed me early in the season the Cubs were good, so there’s a bit of vindictiveness there. Also Wrigleyville will be insane for late round Postseason or WS. I’d like to experience that. Personally, it’s just nice to enjoy everything.
|
| 10:35 |
I think the Cubs can only play 46 night games per season, due to a local ordinance. Not sure if that includes the playoffs or not, though. |
| 10:35 |
: They had to install lights to host Postseason games in 1988 otherwise they’d be played in another stadium.
|
| 10:38 |
i remember what a big deal it was in the 80s when they put the lights in at Wrigley — day games only prior to that |
| 10:38 |
: Really good breaking ball to start the AB.
|
| 10:38 |
Will Tex and A-rod miss enough games next year to rotate in Bird for 400 at bats? |
| 10:38 |
: Yeah, probably.
|
| 10:39 |
Enough data to shift Bird? |
| 10:40 |
: Yeah, teams have minor league spray charts too, so it’s not just MLB data.
|
| 10:40 |
BIG pitch |
| 10:40 |
Amazing fastball. |
| 10:40 |
Perfect pitch |
| 10:41 |
: Lots of breaking balls, then a perfectly located fastball.
|
| 10:41 |
Do you think that, for any big power hitter, particularly a LHB, you should shift until proven otherwise? |
| 10:41 |
: Pretty much, yes.
|
| 10:41 |
: Don’t think I’d let Sipp face the RH here.
|
| 10:42 |
Castro turned that pitch into a strike |
| 10:42 |
Cooper is a joke – that one was 4-6″ off the plate! |
| 10:42 |
: I’m guessing Hank is a Yanks fan.
|
| 10:42 |
Castro has stolen a couple strikes tonight, hasn’t he? |
| 10:42 |
: Yep.
|
| 10:43 |
Why is Sipp getting the benefit of the doubt on all these 3-ball count pitches on the edge? |
| 10:43 |
: The zone gets bigger when the pitcher is behind in the count, actually. That’s true for every pitcher.
|
| 10:44 |
: The idea that umpires give more calls when pitchers are constantly throwing strikes isn’t true. The zone shrinks with two strikes, gets bigger with 2/3 balls.
|
| 10:45 |
Do elite pitchers get bigger zones? The Kershaws of the world. |
| 10:45 |
: Yeah, I’ve seen some research that better pitchers do get more calls, but it’s also about the type of pitcher; guys who throw crazy moving sliders don’t get calls as much as guys who throw fastballs.
|
| 10:45 |
Is it all subconsious for umpires re: count? Are people aware/able to leverage that information at all? |
| 10:46 |
: Yeah, I’d imagine umpires are loathe to decide the outcome of the at-bat unless they have to, so when a walk is possible, they try to not call ball four, and when a strikeout is possible, they try to not call strike three.
|
| 10:46 |
: Relative to their “normal” zones anyway.
|
| 10:47 |
Come on Dave, you seriously think this has been a well called game tonight? |
| 10:47 |
: Decision aversion.
|
| 10:48 |
: The zone has been fine. A little larger than normal, but that’s Cooper, and both teams knew that coming in.
|
| 10:50 |
I don’t think it’s been atrociously bad, but saying “it’s fair because both teams knew about it” ignores the fact that walk-heavy teams will be more burned by a pitcher-friendly zone than a free-swinging team like the Astros. |
| 10:51 |
: Cooper’s zone has been exactly what you’d expect Cooper’s zone to have been. Hitters aren’t robots, and they have this data; it’s on them to adjust.
|
| 10:51 |
: Also, Dellin Betances is good.
|
| 10:51 |
Cooper’s zone is notoriously high. Once again, this does not explain the constant outside pitches going the Astros way |
| 10:51 |
: This just isn’t true. http://www.brooksbaseball.n…
|
| 10:53 |
Umpires should be trained to call a rule book zone. There shouldn’t be varieties. They are paid hundreds of thousands of dollars… |
| 10:53 |
: Maybe the fact that the best in the world at this still miss some pitches should tell you that this is really freaking hard?
|
| 10:53 |
: This is like complaining that a player doesn’t hit 1.000.
|
| 10:54 |
: My final comment on the zone for now: it has been a pitcher’s zone tonight, for both sides, which is totally consistent with what we expected based on Cooper’s track record, and any team that thinks they can go up their with “our approach” and not adjust to the umpire’s tendencies has no right to complain.
|
| 10:56 |
I think “pitch framing” and “presentation” sound pretty similar. Not sure why pitchers prefer one over the other |
| 10:57 |
: Framing sounds like you’re tricking the umpire, presenting sounds like you’re just helping them see what it actually is.
|
| 10:57 |
: It’s more passive.
|
| 10:57 |
“Framing” is easy to say and slightly less ambiguous |
| 10:57 |
: Agreed.
|
| 10:58 |
: Receiving is maybe the best option.
|
| 10:58 |
Ouch Yankee fans…I know Gardner has been bad the second half, but booing a guy in a playoff game? Seems a bit much. |
| 10:59 |
I don’t get why people bother to distinguish between stealing strikes and preserving true strikes. Catchers want as many strikes as possible. End of story |
| 10:59 |
: Well, they’re different skills.
|
| 10:59 |
Replacing home plate umpires with pitch f/x would help elite pitchers who can locate and elite hitters who can recognize borderline pitches. It’d be great for the game. |
| 11:00 |
: Yeah, until a server goes down in the World Series and everyone loses their minds because we don’t know what the call is.
|
| 11:01 |
Yankees fans and Eagles fans. So lovable. |
| 11:02 |
Serious question — do servers ever go down in pro tennis matches? They use sensors to detect in/out on serves. |
| 11:02 |
pitch f/x isn’t there yet. It still gets stuff wrong too much |
| 11:02 |
: PitchFX is great, but it’s limited. Technology is advancing. Same with Statcast.
|
| 11:02 |
: The ball physically comes in contact with the ground. That’s a lot easier than detecting it passing through space.
|
| 11:04 |
i’m having more fun than you all |
| 11:04 |
If you were a true Houston fan you would have used Y’all |
| 11:05 |
: You also have the variable vertical dimension of the strike zone.
|
| 11:05 |
One game, need a win starting pitcher: Kershaw, Arrieta, Greinke…KEUCHEL? |
| 11:05 |
: Kershaw is the right answer.
|
| 11:05 |
: Everyone else is on a level below him.
|
| 11:06 |
What about if Kershaw pitched right handed? THEN who do you pick? |
| 11:06 |
: Price, maybe.
|
| 11:08 |
If you have to pick one hitter in a time game to hit, Trout, Bryce? |
| 11:08 |
: Assuming I didn’t just need a single? Harper.
|
| 11:09 |
i’m three outs away from washing away my sadness in dogfish head ipa and withering away into the night. hold me, fangraphs |
| 11:09 |
: At least you have good beer. 60 min or 90 min?
|
| 11:10 |
ReTrout v Harper: Wait really? That seems like a highly controversial opinion. It’s one year of an uber-elite performance vs 4… |
| 11:10 |
: Harper’s offensive season this year better than anything Trout has ever done at the plate. And it’s not like it was a surprise that Harper had this in him.
|
| 11:10 |
: Trout’s a better player overall still, but I think Harper’s the best hitter in baseball right now.
|
| 11:11 |
Assuming the Astros win, rank the bullpens of the 4 AL teams |
| 11:11 |
: Royals, Jays, Astros, Rangers
|
| 11:13 |
How many super obnoxious CC Sabathia comments have you had to ignore in this chat, about? |
| 11:13 |
: 0, actually. Good folks showed up for the live blog.
|
| 11:13 |
: A-Rod not looking for a 0-0 middle middle fastball.
|
| 11:13 |
: Then chases the slider away.
|
| 11:14 |
Twice |
| 11:14 |
yeesh, filthy |
| 11:15 |
Thanks again, really enjoyed this, but I must say I may be looking forward tomorrow more than any single baseball event in years. Two top 5 teams, Arrieta vs. Cole, with Jeff and Carson? Surely that was a mistake to schedule those two together, alone, to provide us content without supervision. |
| 11:15 |
: Tomorrow should be awesome.
|
| 11:15 |
: Thanks for hanging out everyone. Congrats to the Astros.
|
| 11:15 |
Congrastros |
| 11:15 |
Who we chatting with tomorrow?!? |
| 11:15 |
: Jeff/Carson
|
| 11:16 |
…in which we chat with Carson, insofar as he is available |
| 11:16 |
Congratulations to Houston! Dave, Sean, thank you for the chat; this was great! |
| 11:16 |
: No problem. It was fun!
|
| 11:16 |
see you guys tomorrow. if i get out of bed |
| 11:16 |
: Night all!
|
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
I don’t know kw where to find this, or if I should ask it here but I’ve been wondering for a while.
Is there a state for 2 strike walks? Basically walk rate in counts that reach 2 strikes? Seems like this could be a good indicator of discipline, since a lot of walks are on 4 or 5 pitches with balls not close to the zone.
This gives you a pretty good idea.
http://baseballsavant.com/pitchfx_search.php?hfPT=&hfZ=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfAB=32%7C&ddlStadium=&hfBB=&hfHL=&hfCount=twoks%7C&ddlYear=2015&ddlPlayer=batter&ddlMin=0&ddlPitcherHand=&ddlBatterHand=&ddlVGT=&ddlVLT=&ddlBBVGT=&ddlBBVLT=&ddlDistGT=&ddlDistLT=&txtAngleGT=&txtAngleLT=&txtGameDateGT=&txtGameDateLT=&ddlTeam=&ddlPosition=&hfRO=&ddlHomeRoad=&hfIN=&hfOT=&ddlGroupBy=name&ddlSort=desc&ddlMinABs=0&ddlSBSuccess=&txtPx1=&txtPx2=&txtPz1=&txtPz2=&ddlRPXGT_ft=&ddlRPXGT_in=&ddlRPXLT_ft=&ddlRPXLT_in=&ddlRPYGT_ft=&ddlRPYGT_in=&ddlRPYLT_ft=&ddlRPYLT_in=&txtBAGT=&txtBALT=&txtBLGT=&txtBLLT=&txtSRGT=&txtSRLT=&txtSDGT=&txtSDLT=&ddlPlayerHeightGT=&ddlPlayerHeightLT=&ddlPlayerWeightGT=&ddlPlayerWeightLT=&chk_count=on#results
Just a tip: you can hide a big link like this
[lt]a href=”link“[gt]display text[lt]/a[gt]
replace [lt] with .
lol, they got rid of even my individual gt/lt signs
“”
Thanks, wasn’t sure how to do that.
There are splits here but it is only by specific count as far as I know, so you would need to blend the various strike counts.
Baseball reference has split data on all 2 strike counts (any 2 strike count combined). It’s on the player pages if you use the split tab, they also have league wide data
It’s raw walk counts and PA’s, so it’s not exactly what you are looking for (need to do some fancy division).